[ADWD spoilers] More military blunders from Stannis?

[Ser Frank Haven]

I still can't figure out why Renly even made a claim on the Iron Throne, since his older brother was next in line. It makes no sense; other than Renly being overwhelmingly stupid. Renly and Stannis together could have conquered King's Landing.

Bc he was total power bottom

[Pale_Valkyrie]

Indeed. In fact I've begun rooting for Stannis as king in this book. Something I never expected to do.

Indeed. One of things I've noticed about Stannis, more beginning in this book than the previous ones, is that because he's so unpopular, he's being set up as the Would-Be King that earns all his subjects the hard way. Joffery and Tommen inherited the realm, Renly got his followers by being charismatic. Balon is ambitious to his people's detriment--twice. "Aegon" is depending on his name. Dany earned her stripes across the Narrow Sea, to a degree, but that doesn't really mean anything in Westeros. As far as Westeros is concerned, she is depending on her birthright and her dragons to earn the respect of a continent she's never seen. Even Robb, as good as he was, inherited his followers based on the honorable and good reputation of his father and forefathers, not because he himself did anything grand.

Stannis starts this story bitching about his birthright, and gets mocked and refused. After being driven out of King's Landing, what must he do? Save the Night's Watch, travel among the Hill People (is that what they're called?), liberate Deepwood Motte, rescue Winterfell from the Boltons. Every step of the way, he has to bring his troops to defend the realm and it's people in truth--that's the only way he can get anyone behind him.

Personally, I think this sets him up as the most deserving of the crown thus far.

[The Faceless Bard]

I don't think Stannis is in such a bad position.

The Manderlys, Flints, Hornwoods will betray the Boltons while Roose's plot with the Karstarks is going to be unraveled.

I believe that the Greatjon will either escape the Twins or will be released as I believe Jaime ordered the Freys to release the rest of their prisoners. In fact, it's probably already happened. Once the Greatjon is free, the Umbers led by Whoresbane will betray the Boltons as well.

Basically, the Boltons are screwed.

If this happens I will get on my roof and scream praises to the 7

[Darth Dragonstone]

Stannis is steady. Not a brilliant, creative commander (such as we saw flashes of in Jon.) Stannis is hard, tough, resilient, thorough, wins by being.....steady....as opposed to talented. Stannis might lose a battle, but no victory over him will come easy.

His decision to march on Winterfell as opposed to garrisoning Deepwood Motte was a reasonable calculated risk. Deepwood Motte would allow him to avoid the rigors of winter in shelter, but winter in Westeros is of indeterminate length and in face of that uncertainty Deepwood Motte did not offer any logistical advantage and was quite inadequate for defense, its walls being more suited to defend against wildlings than a proper trained army.

The march to Winterfell ran the risk of his army being caught in the open in harsh winter conditions, but logistics were otherwise no worse and a cold army standing before Winterfell would have the advantage of motivation by desperation -- take Winterfell or die in the cold -- that commanders throughout history have put before their armies.

As it turns out, the worst case did materialize. The army did find some shelter. And should the Bolton forces sally out to attack, the harsh weather will tend to equalize the two forces.

War is hell. It breaks things, including armies.

Stannis isn't in as bad a situation as would first appears, particularly if the Boltons are foolish enough to leave the walls of Winterfell.

[RAAM]

truthfully, stannnis did the right thing, if he had stayed at deepwood, he wouldve starved, so he marched to break the boltons grasp on the north, of course, he couldnt see the future and was caught in a snowstorm, its kinda like marching on moscow, but napoleon captured moscow, but unlike napoleon, stannis will be seen as a liberator and wont have to take a deathmarch retreat like napoleon, he would still probably starve in winterfell though

[georgeforeman]

Of course Stannis did the right thing by marching to Winterfell. If he abandoned "Ned's girl", the good will he'd won from the Northmen would be at least partially lost.. The only question now is, why is Ramsay Bolton convinced he has Stannis's head and sword? My best guess is that he does, but I suppose there are other possibilities.

[Sksmith]

Bc he was total power bottom

lol. I took it that Renly wanted to be king because he grew up around the throne and thought he could do the job better than Robert. He was quite an annoying character, tbh. He accomplished nothing personally yet considered himself smarter than those around him. I was kind of happy when he got jacked by Melisandre’s crotch critter.

[Howdyphillip]

Ah, but Stannis did not command the navy on the Blackwater. That was the idiot Florent, I believe. Arguably, he only commanded the army and was therefore not in supreme command given that the captain sailed into a situation which pretty much every competent seaman (and Stannis himself, based on Victarion's description) knew to avoid.

EDIT: It is a partial loss for Stannis, but I wouldn't hold it against him based on military competence -- just as Connington's failure to capture Robert is no real loss for Connington.

Your not assigning him credit to a military disaster on the Blackwater is almost as ridiculous as when you give him credit for the defense of Storm's End. It was Eddard's march that kept that castle standing. I give Stannis credit for finding rats to eat, but that is about where it ends.

King's Landing could have easily been taken at the very beginning of ACOK if Stannis would have sailed immediately with the fleet he had. He had the closest military units to the city. Instead, he went to battle Renly because Mellisandra told him to. It was his decisions that gave the Imp enough time to forge an alliance with the Tyrells, create the chain, and produce wildfire.

Now, I do believe that he is a good strategist, but he does not have a perfect military history.

[Mitchacho]

Your not assigning him credit to a military disaster on the Blackwater is almost as ridiculous as when you give him credit for the defense of Storm's End. It was Eddard's march that kept that castle standing. I give Stannis credit for finding rats to eat, but that is about where it ends.

King's Landing could have easily been taken at the very beginning of ACOK if Stannis would have sailed immediately with the fleet he had. He had the closest military units to the city. Instead, he went to battle Renly because Mellisandra told him to. It was his decisions that gave the Imp enough time to forge an alliance with the Tyrells, create the chain, and produce wildfire.

Now, I do believe that he is a good strategist, but he does not have a perfect military history.

If Stannis had of taken King's Landing immediately, He would have soon found himself besieged by Renly, or Lannister. If he hadn't of gone to Renly, Tyrion wouldn't have been able to make the Tyrell alliance (As Renly would still be alive). Either way, Stannis would have ended up as a head on a spike. Going to Storms End allowed him to get rid of a rival claimant and gather most of Renly's armies to himself. That said, the defeat on the Blackwater was of his own doing, he was in command, he could have trusted Mel. However, his scouts were being killed by Clansmen, Lannister and Tyrell allied without him, and they attacked at the worst possible time, during his own assault. Only the greatest commanders could have turned such an awkward position into a victory

[Nymeriah]

How long did it supposedly snow for? A month or more?

I dont think its fair to critisize a commander for failing to plan for a month long snowstorm when its not even winter yet.

[CloudFlare]

Wasn't Stannis's navy annihilated (well worse than that) at the battle of the Blackwater with his army losing as well?

I see Stannis as a hard, but unimaginative military commander that relies far too heavily on Melissandre and her Rh'llor. I consider the march of death he undertook towards Winterfell to be especially indicative of how the man thinks. He is hard and unyielding, which served him well enough when he was under siege during Robert's Rebellion but when faced with an even more unyielding force (The Winter), he drove his army into the ground.

Stannis is the type of commander who does best on defense rather than offense. If he's besieged, like he was at Storm's End he won't give in. He does well enough on offense against a weaker host, like the wildings.

Against a creative adversary, like Tyrion on the Blackwater, he loses it.

[Markus]

It's quite interesting what Jon thought Stannis should have done. He thinks that Stannis should've secured Winterfell before Roose Bolton could, that he should have marched as swiftly as possible with forced marches and even by moving at night if necessary, thereby denying Bolton the advantage of Winterfell's walls and surprising him by being where Bolton wouldn't have expected him.

Later we hear in Asha's chapter that Robert would presumably have reached Winterfell in 10 days not 15 like Stannis ... or even a fortnight ago to thump his nose at Bolton from inside the castle, suggesting that Stannis lingered quite some time at Deepwood Motte and that people in his host thought Stannis could have secured Winterfell before Bolton when he wouldn't have lingered.

So Stannis might well have been able to secure Winterfell before Bolton did if he had moved more boldly like Robert (and Jon) would have done ... and might conceivably even have crushed the Boltons in a surprise attack because Bolton wouldn't have expected Stannis to have won a host sizable enough to be able to attack Bolton's force and also knew nothing about where Stannis really was but expected him to attack the Dreadfort as Karstark had promised him.

[aktarian]

Interestingly enough people see references to Iraq/A'stan with Dany but here a clear reference is staring at them and they ignore it. :huh:

What Stannis faces is what Germans faced in September 1941. They saw a clear objective (Moscow) that would (probably) win the war if taken. They knew their resurces may or may not be enough to do it since enemy had substantial forces defending said objective. They knew they lack any serious fall-back positions and if they decided to withdraw they may not be able to stop and entire force would bolt for home. They were ill equiped for winter conditions which were even worse than usual for region (OK, that came into force some weeks later). They couldn't stay where they were because it offered them no protection and had little capability for medium/long term supply. So they decided to risk it, hoping they may prevail, gain some shelter and destroy enemy leadership thus destroying their capability to wage war later. They failed.

Look at Stannis. He knows he has to take Winterfell to destroy Boltons and bring North under some sort of control. He lacks supply. His troops are ill equiped for winter, compounded by massive snowstorm. He can't stay were he is because it leaves him in exposed position he can't defend agaisnt serious attack. Ha can't fall back anyplace because those places can't supply him, at least not concentrated, and it would be seen as defeat and damage his prestige and long term position. He really doesn't have any other option than to risk everything, attack and hope to win Winterfell by storm as long term siege will destroy him. Sitting in one place, doing nothing will eat up his already meagre supplies, lower morale and he will suffer casualties anyway. Attacking would raise morale because doing something is better than doing nothing and he would be able to create a sense that everything depends on everybody giving everything they have, last throw of the dice, win or die. Courage born out of deperation is better than demoralization born out of sitting in snow, freezing to death and starving.

So yes, Stannis' decission to push for Winterfell and risk battle is only viable alternative at that point. He got himself cornered, mostly by his own actions, and only radical action could save him.

It's quite interesting what Jon thought Stannis should have done. He thinks that Stannis should've secured Winterfell before Roose Bolton could, that he should have marched as swiftly as possible with forced marches and even by moving at night if necessary, thereby denying Bolton the advantage of Winterfell's walls and surprising him by being where Bolton wouldn't have expected him.

Later we hear in Asha's chapter that Robert would presumably have reached Winterfell in 10 days not 15 like Stannis ... or even a fortnight ago to thump his nose at Bolton from inside the castle, suggesting that Stannis lingered quite some time at Deepwood Motte and that people in his host thought Stannis could have secured Winterfell before Bolton when he wouldn't have lingered.

So Stannis might well have been able to secure Winterfell before Bolton did if he had moved more boldly like Robert (and Jon) would have done ... and might conceivably even have crushed the Boltons in a surprise attack because Bolton wouldn't have expected Stannis to have won a host sizable enough to be able to attack Bolton's force and also knew nothing about where Stannis really was but expected him to attack the Dreadfort as Karstark had promised him.

To expand Barbarossa analogy further, that is question Germans faced in early september. Should they take a big risk and march on Moscow hoping this will result in swift collapse of Soviet Union or secure flanks before, then march on Moscow. They decided for safer route, taking Kiev, destroying forces there, then march on Moscow. Time was lost, giving Soviets time to gather forces around their capital.

[Talleyrand]

I still can't figure out why Renly even made a claim on the Iron Throne, since his older brother was next in line. It makes no sense; other than Renly being overwhelmingly stupid. Renly and Stannis together could have conquered King's Landing.

Because Stannis would be a bad King and nobody likes him. And why would Renly go over to Stannis? He already has the entire strength of Highgarden and Storm's End behind him how are Stannis' 5000 going to make a difference.

[JayDubya]

Another thing I like about Stannis. He has a plan: "March on the Dreadfort". A beardless boy with limited command experience (Jon Snow) says "That plan is stupid, you should do X, Y and Z instead"

And Stannis listened. That's a rare skill in a noble lord, and one to be admired. He accepts wisdom (Davos Seaworth, Jon Snow), even if the message comes from "lesser" folk.

If he's dead, so be it. But I don't think he's made any egregiously bad calls, given the situation he's in.

[Ran]

Just one point about something raised earlier:

The "idiotic" Imry Florent may have been in charge of Stannis's fleet... but that's because Stannis selected him. That was Stannis's error.

Understandably, a king in this kind of setting can't solely look at competence. Imry was his brother-in-law, Lord Florent is now a major supporter, etc.

But...

It's hard to see why Florent had to be picked over any number of lords who actually provided ships to the fleet. Why not Lord Velaryon or Lord Celtigar? Old, proud names, among Stannis's chief vassals. What experience did Imry Florent have commanding ships? Very limited or even none at all, I suspect. This was a rare error on Stannis's part, allowing political concerns override his common sense.

[Lord of the Rainwood]

Mmm. I thought he picked Florent to secure the loyalty of the Highgarden troops? That seems as how it was described in the book.

[Brutal_Roadrunner]

How long did it supposedly snow for? A month or more?

I dont think its fair to critisize a commander for failing to plan for a month long snowstorm when its not even winter yet.

No..

But I can criticize him for breaking his army by continuing to push towards Winterfell, thus putting his broken army within striking distance of a rested and garrisoned force. Stannis's deathmarch wrecked his army, the Boltons had only to come out of Winterfell and finish them off.

This is why I am sure that his head does indeed rest on a spike.

[Darth Dragonstone]

Just one point about something raised earlier:

The "idiotic" Imry Florent may have been in charge of Stannis's fleet... but that's because Stannis selected him. That was Stannis's error.

Understandably, a king in this kind of setting can't solely look at competence. Imry was his brother-in-law, Lord Florent is now a major supporter, etc.

But...

It's hard to see why Florent had to be picked over any number of lords who actually provided ships to the fleet. Why not Lord Velaryon or Lord Celtigar? Old, proud names, among Stannis's chief vassals. What experience did Imry Florent have commanding ships? Very limited or even none at all, I suspect. This was a rare error on Stannis's part, allowing political concerns override his common sense.

all commanders make mistakes. victory goes to the one who makes the least mistakes. and it's easy to avoid mistakes when the grass is green, the skys are blue and you have all the advantages. the great commanders are the ones who avoid the big mistakes when the chips are down, when factors beyond their control are conspiring against them.

that's why Stannis so often comes out on top. he isn't flashy, but he doesn't make many mistakes, regardless of circumstances.

[IheartTesla]

Only slightly less known than the saying "Never fight a land war in Essos" is the maxim: "Always beware the Northern winter".

I hope Stannis's attempt to take the north doesn't become his Operation Barbarossa ....with Winterfell being his Leningrad.