[ADWD Spoiler] How to swap a baby

[Dragonfish]

I'm not sold on the theory nor discounting it at all. Was Ashara betrothed or matched to anyone at/before/during HH?

Harwin tells Arya that Ned and Ashara were both unpromised when they were at Harrenhal.

Also, Selmy is a super honorable and thoughtful guy. The dishonor could have been something more superficial than we assume.

Like what? Based on context, I think it's clear that Barristan is referring to the man who slept with Ashara. He had just mentioned her stillborn daughter, for one, and he said that Ashara grieved for the man who dishonored her, implying that the two had a connection. The straightforward explanation is that she was "dishonored" when that man slept with her. Any other explanation is really stretching things, IMO.

[estrellas]

I think it's possible, maybe not LIKELY, that the three heads of the dragon are all half Stark, half Targaryen. This fits with the idea of a song of ICE and FIRE. We have Jon Snow, almost certainly the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark. We have this "Aegon", possibly the child of Ashara Dayne (part Targaryen) and either Brandon or Ned Stark. That just leaves Daenerys...she's obviously one of them, as she's already riding her dragon. We know next to nothing about her mother Rhaella except that her and Aerys very rarely slept together. It's obviously very out there to think Daenerys might not be Aerys' child, then again, who knows? She's certainly not psycho, like Viserys was.

[king lare]

get the maesters to whip up a DNA test. .

[Rickon is FIERCE]

There is a lot of buildup in the series for a Ned/Ashara pairing, and not just to stand as a red herring explanation for Jon. Specifically I'm thinking of the KotLT story Jojen tells Bran and the section in the Arya chapter where she's talking with Ned Dayne about Ashara, Wylla, Ned, Jon, etc. I'm not totally sure the chronology works and this is probably covered somewhere on this forum but what's the prevailing thought on Ned Dayne being Ned/Ashara's? It would be a beautiful irony for Ned to take the heat all this time for Jon, who isn't his, knowing he actually had been with someone who wasn't his wife...

[Alia of the knife]

As for Rhaegar and Ashara,

Why wait for Harrenhal?

Whatever happened to her there sounds like it was a "first time" deal.

Ashara was at court, plenty of time to have "disnonored" her there.

I don't think Rhaegar is completely together,but I do think he is meant to be a positive character.

Besides, as a member of the KG, Selmy would have known about a relationship and not thought so highly of Rhaegar.

As a member of KG, the Royal Family would have felt no need to hide any affairs, or relationships from the KG, because they were there to serve and protect- not judge.

Rhaegar would have felt no need to "spare" Selmy by hiding it from him, because Selmy is not supposed to love anyone.

If all this is going on, I will have to move on to another series, because this sounds too much like Jackie Collins, and not Tolkein.

[Hugor Hill]

I think it's possible, maybe not LIKELY, that the three heads of the dragon are all half Stark, half Targaryen. This fits with the idea of a song of ICE and FIRE. We have Jon Snow, almost certainly the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark. We have this "Aegon", possibly the child of Ashara Dayne (part Targaryen) and either Brandon or Ned Stark. That just leaves Daenerys...she's obviously one of them, as she's already riding her dragon. We know next to nothing about her mother Rhaella except that her and Aerys very rarely slept together. It's obviously very out there to think Daenerys might not be Aerys' child, then again, who knows? She's certainly not psycho, like Viserys was.

Interesting theory on Ice and Fire, but I don't think so. the hole in that is Dany. There has never been any doubt cast on her lineage. She is the child of Aerys and Rhaella. Her being sane does not disprove that. Yes, Viserys was a little out there (more of a spoiled brat than crazy), and Aerys was nutty as a squirrel turd, but her other brother (Rhaegar) showed no signs of mental illness.

[Woman of War]

I simply cannot believe that Aegon is really Aegon because this would turn Dany's storyline so much more pointless. Not an immanent logical argument based on facts but only a feeling how the literary thread should unravel..........or better not.

[Lord Martin]

IIRC, it was Brandon Stark who dishonored Ashara, not Rhaegar. Rhaegar dishonored his wife Elia and pissed off Robert Baratheon when he named Lyanna Queen of Beauty.

Also, I'm not sure Ashara became pregnant AT Harrenhal, but for certain some time after that but before Brandon Stark's death. I suspect very strongly that he is the father of her child.

I agree w/ estrellas and think there could be two half Stark/Targs out there R+L and B+A. Who is the third? Tyrion could be a secret Targ and then there is always Dany.

But look out for Hodor, son of Old Nan and Ser Duncan the Tall. Bran will war him and be the third dragon... hows that for a fun crackpot?

[MtnLion]

IIRC, it was Brandon Stark who dishonored Ashara, not Rhaegar.

Citation, please. I don't think this has ever been revealed, as Barristan merely states that Ashara was dishonored, but not by whom.

Rhaegar dishonored his wife Elia and pissed off Robert Baratheon when he named Lyanna Queen of Beauty. Also, I'm not sure Ashara became pregnant AT Harrenhal, but for certain some time after that but before Brandon Stark's death. I suspect very strongly that he is the father of her child. I agree w/ estrellas and think there could be two half Stark/Targs out there R+L and B+A. Who is the third? Tyrion could be a secret Targ and then there is always Dany. But look out for Hodor, son of Old Nan and Ser Duncan the Tall. Bran will war him and be the third dragon... hows that for a fun crackpot?

Ashara is not a Targaryen, she is a Dayne.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

1. Daenerys' vision of Rhaegar, Elia and Aegon. I just don't believe he was just some few hours old by then.

Actually, we know that Aegon WAS just a few hours old in that vision. The text states very plainly that the woman was nursing a "newborn babe," and Rhaegar and Elia are naming him Aegon (these are not wildlings who wait 2 years to bestow a name). Rhaegar also says quite plainly that this is the Prince that was Promised, but that there must be one more. So at this point, it makes sense that Rhaegar had not yet set in motion his plan for the third child, whether he intended to knock up Ashara, Cersei, or Lyanna to get the third child (or all three just to hedge his bets).

My impression has always been that Rhaegar himself was surprised and became rather rash over his feelings for Lyanna, because Cersei thinks at one point that if Rhaegar had only really noticed her, he "never would have looked twice at the wolf girl." So even someone as relatively young at the time as Cersei, was aware that something unusual and possibly/probably romantic sprang up between Lyanna and Rhaegar very fast.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

Slightly off topic, but can you IMAGINE how badly Cersei must hate Lyanna? First Lyanna runs off with the prince that Cersei considers hers and gets him killed (in Cersei's mind; she herself thinks that one of the tiings she could never forgive Robert for was killing Rhaegar); and THEN she gets called Lyanna in her first intimate encounter with her new husband. Sheesh! Talk about an inferiority complex!

[Prince of Winterfell]

I don't really picture Rhaegar as a manwhore, banging everyone.

[tearloch]

Some of this discussion makes sense. Something that always bothered me with the whole R+L=J theory is that Ned, in that case, did nothing wrong, but in parts of AGoT, I took Ned as being remorseful of something to Catelyn. And I think if Ned actually did nothing wrong, then letting Catelyn in on the secret would have been in his character.

So lets start with R+L=J being true.

Then throw in that Ned is the one that dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal. I mean, if Ned felt guilty about something, maybe that was it, even though he wasn't betrothed or married to Catelyn yet, but if Ashara was pregnant, and it was Ned's child, which was born after they got married, he could still see that as a stain on his honor.

Then lets assume that Elia did, in fact, gave birth to the still born girl, while Ashara gives birth to "Aegon", and they swap babies. Ashara is ashamed of the having the child, and Elia his heartbroken for her lose. Ashara's family has Targaryen features, so that checks. I don't buy the Rheagar + Ashara stuff, b/c if she was close to Elia, that would be a pretty devasting secret to keep, right. Or if Elia knew, no way would Elia have Ashara with her the whole time. So that makes Aegon (assume Varys' tale is true to his knowledge) the child of Ned and Ashara. That works, since almost all of Neds kids seems to have dominant features of the mother (all except Arya), supporting baby Aegon having Dayne features (similar to Targaryens).

Another part that always gets me is why would Ned make a special trip to Ashara? Just to give he the sword of her brother, who Ned killed? For my theory, that is only part of it. He is also seeking Ashara due to the child. She does actually commit suicide rather than face Ned....she would either have to lie to him about the child, or tell him the truth....that their child is now Aegon Targaryen.

It doesn't solve the Septa question....but I don't buy that she could be the mother of Aegon for all these years. I could see a man standing by (like Jaime), but not a woman.

So, there it is.

Jon Snow is the child of Rheagar and Lyanna. He was raised by Ned as his bastard as a promise to Lyanna on her death bed.

Aegon Targaryen is the child of Ned and Ashara. He was raised in secret by Jon Connington under the protection of Varys / Illyrio.

Howland Reed (the international man of mystery) is the only living soul that knows the truth of it all, and he will tell the world sometime soon.

[Dragonfish]

Some of this discussion makes sense. Something that always bothered me with the whole R+L=J theory is that Ned, in that case, did nothing wrong, but in parts of AGoT, I took Ned as being remorseful of something to Catelyn.

I always felt Ned was remorseful because he was lying to Catelyn, and forcing her to live with his "bastard child."

And I think if Ned actually did nothing wrong, then letting Catelyn in on the secret would have been in his character.

I don't think this is true. Ned specifically says in AGoT that some secrets are too dangerous to share even with those you love and trust. I think we'd all agree that R+L=J qualifies as such a secret, so it is absolutely in Ned's character not to tell Catelyn the truth about Jon's parentage.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

Okay, here is my biggest problem with the whole baby swap thing regarding the original Aegon (bear with me a minute). Some of this is coming from my lifelong hobby as a Tudor fanatic, but swapping a royal infant is really not as easy as just waltzing in at naptime and switcheroo. You have to make it into the (heavily guarded) royal nursery, WITH the baby you are planning to swap hidden silently on your person somewhere (good luck with that). Then there are wetnurses, handmaids, serving people, people EVERYWHERE. Unless we assume that they did things very differently in Westeros with royal infants than IRL (possible, but hard to buy given the rebellion going on), royal infants are swarmed with household staff constantly.

I suppose they could have switched him instantly at birth, but if so, wouldn't Elia have insisted on going with him (not to mention taking her 2-3 year old daughter with them out of harm's way). There is also the fact that I believe that a mother knows her child, and the infants could not have been switched without Elia's knowledge. I have no proof for that beyond being a mother myself four times, and having known my children's smells and cries easily from birth.

There have been lots of times in OUR history when a baby swap sure would have saved some skins. Going with the Tudors alone, if Katherine of A could ever have switched one of her stillbirths with a live son ...if Anne Boleyn could have switched Elizabeth with a red haired boy ... If Mary Stuart herself could have been switched with a male to continue the Stuart line. It never would have worked, for the same reasons I don't believe it worked here. To be switched right at birth, you have to hoodwink the half a hundred people usually attendant on a royal birth. To swap immediately after, you have to get past guards, wetnurses and staff, all with a squirming infant stuck in your pocket. To swap even a week or two later, you risk someone recognizing the child has been switched. GRRM hasn't any children, so maybe this is a blind spot for him, but when you care for an infant daily, you recognize them easily. Even among a thousand blue eyed blonde haired newborns, I could have picked mine out within hours of his birth, by sight, sound and smell. It would be the same for Elia and the wetnurses.

So for this Varys plot to work:

1. Swap as soon as the cord is cut - you have a mother to convince, several midwives, a maester and a wetnurse to murder, as well as anyone else present. In Medieval Europe, royal births were often attended by half the court.

2. Swap a couple weeks to several months later - the people who have been caring for him WILL KNOW. I promise they will know, and raise holy hell, thinking the prince has been kidnapped.

3. Swap him just before Amory/Gregor/whoever is sent their way ... Why not save Elia and/or Rhaenys too? This would have been no harder than swapping babies. Elia suicides out the window, Rhaenys is replaced by another little girl, and you have some handy asshole nearby to take credit for already having done all the necessary face-smashing to prevent recognition. In the long run, if taking the real Aegon is the real plan, this is almost NECESSARY. People will remember Elia if she is alive and there 20 years later to vouch for her son; otherwise he will simply be called a pretender (and as with the IRL Princes in the Tower, you will soon have a countryside swarming with Perkin Warbecks, pretending to be the "real" Aegon). Rhaenys is maybe more dispensible, but still a Targ ruler possibility if Aegon does not survive infancy (a very real possibility). It just seems ... UnVarys to go to half the trouble for a child who will be so easily dismissed as a pretender, when going WholeVarys would have possibly gotten them all out of there. Hell, if coming up with bodies is too much trouble, just help them escape. Yes, they would have been hunted, but no more or less than Dany and Viserys were, and Illyrio/Varys were apparently up to the task of hiding them.

And here is one last snag in this whole "behold the real Aegon" thing: this plan is supposed to have been going on for years, with Illyrio and Varys' backing. Buttttt...what if Viserys had lived and gotten his Dothraki? Were Illyrio and Varys just going to stand back between Viserys and Aegon and say, "hey, you guys work it out.". Or just assassinate whichever one grew up to be the bigger ass, or what? Illyrio supposedly loves YG like a son. Why did he turn Viserys loose, when he had to know #1 On King Viserys' mad agenda would be getting rid of any Targ competition?

I know I am not answering a single question here, I am simply bringing up a zillion questions ... But I think they are legitimate, especially the one about why Illyrio would let Viserys slip through his fat fingers. He had Dany more or less out of the way by marrying her to Drogo. Why take the chance that Viserys would actually make it to Westeros with an army before they could send Aegon?

[MtnLion]

If Varys and Illyrio are plotting to put their Blackfyre Aegon on the throne it may make sense to do as they did with Viserys and Daenerys. By arranging to trade Daenerys for an army to back Viserys, it is available for Aegon, as well. But, thinking of inheritance, Aegon comes before Viserys. So, after Viserys has taken the war to Westeros and won, they can put Aegon on the throne with little threat to his well being. If Viserys loses, it is of little import, except to weaken any opposition to Aegon’s forces.

[Lord Martin]

Citation, please. I don't think this has ever been revealed, as Barristan merely states that Ashara was dishonored, but not by whom. Ashara is not a Targaryen, she is a Dayne.

Selmy's exact quote from ADWD, IIRC was that Ashara was dishonored by a Stark. The only debate is which Stark.

Daynes are not Targs, true enough. But they look very Valyrian. Perhaps that is the more important "fire" trait, being Valyrian rather than family, i.e Targaryen.

I like the idea of another baby switch and Aegon. But it makes the Illyrio/Varys = Blackfrye supporters theory more difficult.

[Humphrey Plantagenet]

I have this theory in my head and I have to get it out:

• Ashara was 'dishonored' at Harrenhal by Rhaegar and became pregnant
  
• Elia became pregnant at approximately the same time
  
• Elia, in delicate health, confined herself in her chambers for the duration on her pregnancy being attended by only Ashara and Wylla
  
• A few people know that Ashara is pregnant: Elia, Rhaegar, Wylla, Barristan; but mostly she is kept hidden in Elia's room to save her from disgrace
  
• Elia and Ashara go into labor at approximately the same time
  
• Elia gives birth to a stillborn daughter; Ashara gives birth to a healthy son
  
• Ashara gives the distraught Elia her son – Ashara, being unmarried knows she cannot keep him. The people who knew of Ashara's pregnancy are told the stillborn daughter is Ashara's
  
• Rhaegar names his son Aegon (as per Dany's vision in the house of the Undying, where Elia is in bed with the new baby)
  
• By this stage the Rebellion is underway and Rhaegar fears for the safety of his son
  
• With Varys's assistance, Rhaegar switches Aegon with a common baby
  
• Rhaegar orders Arthur Dayne, Gerold Hightower and the other dude whose name I can never remember to escort Ashara and Aegon to Starfall
  
• The 3KG are then ordered to remain at the ToJ to guard Lyanna and to prevent attackers from the north from getting to Starfall
  
• Rhaegar dies, Kings Landing is sacked, Robert wins
  
• Ned Stark and companions go to the ToJ, kill the 3KG, find the dying Lyanna and pick up baby Jon
  
• Ned goes on to Starfall to return Dawn to Ashara and to break the bad news that the Targs have fallen
  
• Ashara, with assistance from Varys, fakes her own death and takes Aegon into exile
  
• A few years later Varys sends Jon Connington to help Ashara raise Aegon
  
• Ashara takes on the guise of Septa Lemore
  
• Therefore Aegon is the son of Rhaegar, but as he is not the son of Rhaegar's legitimate wife, Aegon is not Rhaegar's legitimate heir
  
• Only Elia and Ashara knew of the original swap, so Ashara aka Lemore is the only person alive who knows that she is the mother of Aegon. Varys, JonCon and everyone else involved believe Aegon to be Rhaegar's legitimate heir.
  

This theory still raises many questions, but I feel as though I would weaken my central arguements by saying "maybe this or maybe that", so this is the 'broad strokes' version. I am happy to fill in any speculative 'fine details'...

By implication then, at Harrenhal Rhaegar:

·

“dishonours” Ashara getting her pregnant

·

Gets his wife pregnant at the same tourney…or immediately before or after it

·

Whilst doing all this he meets Lyanna Stark and is so impressed he thinks “two in the oven but there’s a girl for the backburner if ever I saw one”

Elia locks herself away with her best mate who’s also pregnant with her husband’s child. Her child is still born so she adopts the son of her husband’s rape or affair with said best mate as her child & 2^nd in line to the throne. This strikes me as strange behaviour.

Having been so prolific at Harrenhall Rhaegar is disappointed by the news his wife can no longer conceive and so whips Lyanna off the backburner in in to a quicky marriage & pregnancy. The pesky rebellion kills him and his family but leaves two “are they/aren’t they” baby boys out there.

Secretly adopting your husband’s son with your best mate after losing your own in childbirth? Wow. And in this scenario Rhaegar is just an awful, awful man.

[MtnLion]

I have this theory in my head and I have to get it out:

. . .

This theory still raises many questions, but I feel as though I would weaken my central arguements by saying "maybe this or maybe that", so this is the 'broad strokes' version. I am happy to fill in any speculative 'fine details'...

Jem, I don't recall using this theory as part of my thoughts about Aerys, but it may have contributed. Taking Ser Barristan's monologue apart, piece by piece leads to some interesting thoughts. http://asoiaf.wester...s-at-harrenhal/ was started by one of the proponents.

Basically I worked backwards from assuming that Varys had indeed rescued Aegon before the carnage in the Red Keep. It seems that something about Aegon will prove to be fake, though, per Daenerys' vision in the HotU. So, we (Belandra Waters has done some significant research) took a closer look at Barristan's recollections. It is reasonable to think that Barristan is reminiscing about Ashara and her suicide. The beginning seems to the be key point, or the real reason for Ashara's predicament. " Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there." Couple this with the failure to lay blame for Ashara's dishonor, "But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well." I had always thought it very odd that Barristan would express a deep love, he is in his forties at Harrenhal, and not link the dishonor with an individual. There is an explanation, that is that the person who dishonored Ashara was Aerys. No one stood against Aerys in many atrocities, so it is not unlikely that a large number of people could know and not even mention it, thought they may think it. Ser Barristan is Kingsguard and sworn to keep the king's secrets, as well, so hiding the name in his own thoughts makes sense.

I agree with the idea of switching a healthy boy for Elia's stillborn daughter. That boy would need to have a Targaryen sire to match Aegon's description, and the only two that I know of at Harrenhal are Rhaegar and Aerys. I don't think that Rhaegar would have been remembered quite so fondly, if it had been him as a source for a lady's dishonor. But being bastard born of Aerys and Ashara does make him a fake Targaryen (dragon).

[Slingingstones]

I'm sorry if this tidbit has already surfaced; but, it concerns whether Ashara is Lemore and if YG is actually Aegon:

ADWD "The Lost Lord" ch.24, p339:

Lady Lemore to Griff: "We have gone to great lengths to keep Prince Aegon hidden all these years," Lemore reminded him. "The time will come for him to wash his hair and declare himself, I know, but that time is not now. Not to a camp of sellswords."

Either Lemore and Griff truly believe YG is Aegon by first hand knowledge, or they believe because of hearsay knowledge. I tend to be swayed by the former if the "wash his hair" means to show his true hair color, to wash out the dye. Or is it just a figure of speech?