3 babies, only 1 mother

[Alia of the knife]

I know the show cannot be considered 100% cannon but the writers do have a heads up on where GRRM is going with the books and it is highly significant that immediately after that conversation, the camera cuts to a shot of Jon's face.

Very true.

And Bean played that off very well. You could see the discomfort and the desparation to get Robert off the subject.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

But, if Ned did outsmart Varys, that would be soooooooooo priceless.

Well I'd argue that Ned has already outsmarted Varys: He raised the true Targ heir in plain sight.

[Ygritte Lady Snow]

But, if Ned did outsmart Varys, that would be soooooooooo priceless.

Judging from what we saw from these two in the TV show, I think this collusion is very unlikely. If GRRM was planning this, the show would prepare us for such twist. But there was no cynism between the characters. They behave like they had no affinity.

For the whole baby stuff, maybe there's no switch, but I'm 100% sure Martin's gonna add some new elements to this story. The revelation won't come so easy and obvious. Assuming it'll come...

[Buried Treasure]

A theory that Ned and Ashara were the parents of boy now known as Aegon doesn't necessarily have to involve Ned being in on the conspiracy. After all the man only has to be involved for one night, and Ned was really too busy to be keeping close tabs on Ashara - we do not know whether or not he ever saw her between Harrenhal and Starfall.

Of all the many baby switch theories theories that exist, this is actually the only one I favour, but I disagree with the original poster about the details. My reasoning was based on building a timeline of who could have been pregnant when. The only significant women we know of during that period that could have been pregnant at the same time were Elia and Ashara. Our information is too vague to be certain their pregnancies overlap exactly but as there is no mention of Elia already being pregnant at Harrenhal and Lyanna was kidnapped a year later and after Elia had her child I think she must have conceived around the time of the tourney. And from Barristan's memory we can infer that Ashara also conceived at Harrenhal.

So my thinking is that the first switch may not have happened just before the sack of KL but much earlier, at birth. There seems to be a certain amount in sense in thinking that it may have been frail, sickly Elia that gave birth to a stillborn child, but maybe she was worried about Rhaegar casting her aside and so hatched a plot with her handmaid and close friend Ashara. If Ashara had just given birth to a secret baby boy, healthy and with the silver hair and voilet eyes common to both the Daynes and the Targaryens, maybe she agreed to give him up to be raised as a prince.

From there, most of the usual theories apply. Only with an extra twist.

-Ashara returns to Starfall so that her resemblance to Prince Aegon is not noticed, but when she learns he has been killed she commits suicide?

-The switch between Aegon and the pisswater boy happened as described, but Varys knew of the earlier switch through his birds, and used that knowledge to persuade Ashara to become Lemore?

-Varys did not know of the first switch, so after organising his own he thinks he has the true Targaryen heir, not knowing he is actually a bastard?

I'm also somewhat partial to the idea that Rhaegar somehow learnt of the swap, and this is what prompted him to act so recklessly in taking Lyanna.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think that's just one too many baby switches. We're approaching Chinese fire drill territory here and I just don't think it was that convoluted. :P At most, we're probably looking at one baby switch — Aegon in King's Landing — and many people, including yours truly, don't even think that one happened.

Also, I believe that if Ashara got pregnant by a Stark, it was Brandon, not Ned.

[Lady.Tanda's.Lover]

I agree, but there is far more specific evidence that Jon is Lyanna's and Rhaegar's child, and is legitimate. A careful analysis of the conversation with the King's Guard at the Tower of Joy indicates that they believe that the heir to the throne is under their protection. Further, we have the blue flower growing from a chink in a wall of ice filling the air with sweetness in Daenerys' vision at the House of the Undead. Unlikely that Jon is anything but heir, and that it is yet to be confirmed.

where do i find this chapter about lyanna and rhaegar, the tower of joy, etc?

i have no recollection of it and see it mentioned a lot

[Buried Treasure]

Somewhere around two-thirds of the way into GoT, it is at the beginning of a Ned chapter after he has been injured by Jaime.

Mind you there is a lot less information presented in the text than our discussions would have you believe. Most of what we are arguing is our interpretation of the sub-text, so our arguements are basically shaky towers of speculation based on the uncertain foundations of unconfirmed assumptions.

[Brucolac]

It is in two Ned POVs, his first one after he breaks his leg and then his first one while in the dungeons. It is just brief flashbacks though.

[Alia of the knife]

I agree that that would be way too many switches, and we're verging on Jackie Collins, or Jerry Springer, than the literary esteem of a Tolkein.

I think it would be interesting to see the dynamics of the Starks, and how Brandon sleeping with the woman Ned fell in love with, would have on the "pack."

(Not trying to make them out like Marcia and Jan Brady), but Ned even relates to Caitlyn how everything was meant for Brandon, and I wonder how much underlying resentment lay in that statement?

However, I would not doubt that Elia may feel her position to be precarious, and I think we'll find that while she may have been a nice person, Rhaegar was just not that into her, though he may have tried, and had intended to treat her honorably.

One poster had questioned the timeline in Aegons conception, and that Elia may have conceived at the Tourney, but that also coencided with his meeting Lyanna, so Rhaegar may not have exactly had, (cough), Elia on his mind.

But, all in all, I believe it was stated that a comet was seen over KL the night Aegon was conceived, so Rhaegar and Elia were home.

[Rose of Winterfell]

I agree that there may have been resentments between the Starks prior to the eloping incident-I think Jaime has a point when he talks about Ned caring more about Robert than his father and brother (I think Robert even hints that Ned doesn't react as he would be expected to to his father and brother's deaths-'the way your father and brother died, that was unspeakable', as if he has to remind him)

I have to admit I initially found the ashara/elia baby swap the most ludicrous of all the baby swap theories, but after reading through this thread I've changed my mind a little. I also think this could go some way to explaining why Rhaegar apparently did nothing when Aerys arrested Brandon-it's not hard to imagine that he'd resent the man whose child he'd thought was his own only to find out he'd been lied to, and I doubt anyone thought Aerys would kill Lord Rickard as well, when he hadn't done anthing... Not that I'm saying Brandon was in on the switch, only that it was basically his fault if you're looking for someone to blame. Still doesn't explain why Lyanna didn't beg him to do something to help her brother, but maybe she did and he refused.

Also... if Jon is the PTWP, and Rhaegar for some reason expected an Aegon, Rhaenys, Visenya line up for his children, then the 'stillborn daughter' was potentially the child Elia gave birth to, meaning Jon might have had two dragonrider sisters, had she survived- very Aegon the Conqueror.

My main problem with the theory is that other people must have known (ie. the maester who delivered the baby), and how it could have been orchestrated, given that Rhaegar (judging by Dany's 'undying' vision) was at Dragonstone when Aegon was born, was maybe even present in the room (which given his obsession with having children, I'd assume he was). I'd also have to wonder about the extent of Arthur Dayne's involvement-whether he knew/found out and told Rhaegar...

[Alia of the knife]

On the issue of being lied to, I would think that he might also be angry at Elia as well.

As for Rhaegar not doing anything to save Brandon, I don't think he could until later.

I simply think that Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't find out what happened until it was too late.

But, once finding out, I'm sure the TOJ became the Tower of Hell, and I imagine that Lyanna forced Rhaegars hand to do something about his Father, whether to kill Aerys or not I don't know, but he definitely had to give her her pound of flesh, or lose her love.

[MtnLion]

where do i find this chapter about lyanna and rhaegar, the tower of joy, etc? i have no recollection of it and see it mentioned a lot

The pertinent part is recorded on the Wiki: http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Oswell_Whent

What you need to know to interpret that conversation is revealed in FfC by Jaime about the vows of the White Swords (King's Guard). They have a single overriding vow that at least one of their members (7) be with the king at all times. Ned tells them about all of the gory details; Aerys, Rhaegar, Aegon, and Jaime, Barristan, and the others; finally mentioning that the supposed crown prince, Viserys, is on Dragonstone with no King's Guard. He is offering them a free pass to Dragonstone, to allow him to visit his sister without a fight. "No," is there response, "we swore a vow." Simply the (true born, Lyanna and Rhaegar were married) heir to the Iron Throne is present at the Tower of Joy.

We also get some symbolism of Jon as a blue flower, and later connect it to the Wall of Ice, to reinforce that it is Jon. Add to this that the writers of the screenplay for HBO have also answered this question to GRRM's satisfaction, so it is clear who Jon's mother is.

While it is interesting to consider that Ashara had a son, and Elia a stillborn daughter which were switched; to suggest that it was a Stark child is an error that is unsupported in the story. If it had been a Stark that had dishonored Ashara, why didn't Barristan make that connection? He didn't because it was someone else, and we have Oberyn and Rhaegar present with appropriate collorations.

[Alia of the knife]

Or Aerys.

I suppose Rhaegar could have seduced Ashara, but I would wonder why wait until then when she's been at court?

And Elia is there, but Rhaella is not, (though I suppose it wouldn't matter to Aerys if she was), and Aerys is known for rape.

It would also mean Ashara is carrying Rhaegars half sibling and a good reason for Arthur to be angry and turn on Aerys, breaking his vows.

I think this time it's what Martin said and she had a stillborn girl, (and that takes her out of the running for Jons mom), most likely fathered by Brandon who duped and used her, and she turned to good old Ned for help who would have married her most likely.

Good old solid, but "mud" Ned to clean up after Rock Star Brothers mess.

Of course Ashara loses again when he has to stand in and marry Caitlyn after Brandon is killed.

[MtnLion]

Alia, maybe this makes sense to you: Barristan names who Ashara seeks help from as a "Stark", but he only says "man" to identify the dishonor to Ashara at Harrenhal. Perhaps there is a strong case for it to be Aerys.

Lady Dustin is making third person accusations to an unreliable narrator, who actually also is known by Lady Dustin to be a spy for both Boltons. She is just covering her assets for the visit to the crypt. There may or may not be a grain of truth in her story, but even if one believes some of it; Brandon being wreckless at Harrenhal doesn't make sense.

[Alia of the knife]

Alia, maybe this makes sense to you: Barristan names who Ashara seeks help from as a "Stark", but he only says "man" to identify the dishonor to Ashara at Harrenhal. Perhaps there is a strong case for it to be Aerys.

Lady Dustin is making third person accusations to an unreliable narrator, who actually also is known by Lady Dustin to be a spy for both Boltons. She is just covering her assets for the visit to the crypt. There may or may not be a grain of truth in her story, but even if one believes some of it; Brandon being wreckless at Harrenhal doesn't make sense.

No, I caught that too.

And I briefly thought of Rhaegar too, but then what we know to be consistent with his character is that he probably was the one truly noble person Martin intended in the book, (and of couse he had to die), and Selmy says he loved his Lady Lyanna and thousands died for it, or otherwise, he would not have even dishonored Elia, though he didn't love her.

Which to the casual fan, the idea that Lyanna and Rhaegar might have run away together will be a shock.

However, I do think Aerys fits the bill given his character.

And that makes more sense to me that Arthur Dayne who is reputed to be every bit as noble as Ned and Rhaegar would have broken his vows and become involved in intrigue to remove him, playing the GOT which is so unlike KG.

But, now he has three good reasons:

1) Revenge

2) His family has been irrevocably touched by Aerys madness.

3) While he and Rhaegar were good friends, I personally don't think he'd get involved in intrigue just for Rhaegars prophesy, especially since he was under Aerys command.

He is KG after all, and not "Princes" Guard, so something drove him over the edge.

This would also open it up to the fact that Aegon and Dany are half siblings, and he's probably crazy as hell too, and they clash.

BUT, having said all that, and as much as I respect your observation about Brandon, my personal opinion is that more than likely, Brandon was a bit of a player and a Rock Star.

I think at the end of the day, he did Father her stillborn daughter, it takes Ashara out of the much speculated running as Jons Mother, and she out of loyalty to Elia and Rhaegar may be Septa Lemore looking out for who she and JonCon thinks is the real Aegon, but who is most likely a remnant Blackfyre Targ., or just some Blacksmiths son with a totally different background scheme going on between Illyario and Varys.

What this does do though is open up the dynamics on what we've been led to believe is the perfect Stark family,(the Westeros version of "The Brady Bunch"), a pack and a unit that without one another, can't survive.

But what happens when one Stark goes rogue and upends that dynamic?

Brandon would have had to know that Neds feelings for Ashara were more than carnal, but if Ashara really fell in love with Brandon, and Ned loves her....

Can the pack turn on one another?

I bet there were tensions between Lyanna and Brandon, though I don't doubt he loved her.

But, if it wasn't Brandon, then my money would be on Aerys.

As for the overall baby switching aspect,(and this is me thinking out loud), if I recall, Elia had gotten pregnant at KL as Rhaegar saw a comet, (over KL), on the night Aegon was conceived, so Elia was most likely already pregnant at Harrenhal, so any switching between her and Ashara might be noticable.

I truly really hope it's only left to the one, if that even happened.

I think to the casual fan, Jon will be surprise enough.

[Brucolac]

If Brandon Stark got Ashara Dayne pregnant at Harrenhall that resulted in a stillbirth towards the end of the war, then the timeline for events has been screwed up.

[Alia of the knife]

Apparently Harrenhal is where she became pregnant as this is known as the moment of her dishonor, so no matter who the "man" was, it would appear she gave birth some time after Elia did.

(Personally, I think when Martin wrote these events, it was meant to be a mere set-up for GOT. I don't think he anticipated so many people being interested in the back story to pick it apart, so he perhaps didn't finesse the timeline).

[Buried Treasure]

(Personally, I think when Martin wrote these events, it was meant to be a mere set-up for GOT. I don't think he anticipated so many people being interested in the back story to pick it apart, so he perhaps didn't finesse the timeline).

He's not really interested in absolute timelines, as I understand that people who work out the global timeline are amazed at the speeds those Westerosi horses can achieve. Still, I think George has an easier job than us with the Robert's rebellion events as he already knows the basic timeline and so he can slot in event G and say 'it occured soon after event C and sometime before D'. Whereas when we get told the war lasted a year we have to allow a window of a couple of months either side. By the time we have built a chain of several events we have to allow a margin of error of eight months which is when you are going to realise it's 3am and you just posted 1000 words on why your timeline states that the Battle of the Bells must have occurred before Brandon rode to KL.

Which point I am not yet at, but I am one of the proposers for the (Elia->stillborn)x(Ashara->Aegon) theory. And I came to this theory by working on the assumption that a baby-switch occurred sometime, somewhere, and that my timeline makes these the only 2 babies close enough in age. To whit:

Apparently Harrenhal is where she became pregnant as this is known as the moment of her dishonor, so no matter who the "man" was, it would appear she gave birth some time after Elia did.

I agree with the Ashara got pregnant at Harrenhal part, but we don't have a fixed point for Elia.

- Aegon was born before Lyanna's abduction (per the HotU vision and general knowledge that Elia could not have another child).

- Aegon was about a year old for the sack (source?) and the war lasted about a year. So Aegon was at most a few months old when it began, and definately born after Harrenhal.

- There is no mention of Elia being pregnant at Harrenhal (this it lack of evidence rather than evidence). I think if she was vastly pregnant it would have been noted and added to the scandal of Rhaegar crowning Lyanna over Elia. This suggests the earliest she could have conceived is a couple of months before the tourney and was not yet showing.

I may have missed something, but from the above I put the window for Elia conceiving at from 2 months before to 3 months after Harrenhal. So it is possible but not definite that their pregancies were simultaneous. For bonus points I'll throw in the idea that if the two women were close they may have been synchronised ;) .

[corbon]

If Brandon Stark got Ashara Dayne pregnant at Harrenhall that resulted in a stillbirth towards the end of the war, then the timeline for events has been screwed up.

True.

But the only thing tying Ashara's stillbirth close to the end of the war is Barristan's rather vague 'soon after' comment. Thats a 60+ year old man making a vague comment about a possibile connection from 20 years ago.

Ashara Dayne's stillbirth could easily have resulted from a Harennhal tryst and still fit everything fine.

[Brucolac]

He knows exactly when she died, this is someone he cares about and takes notice of and it is common knowledge throughout the seven kingdoms. She kills herself after the war, right after her brother dies and he knows when Arthur died too. With him not being able to read peoples thoughts, the fact that he associates her suicide with a stillbirth and not her brothers death as even a possibility(like grief for the man from harrenhall), means the stillbirth must have happened around that time too.

It doesn't fit the timeline fine at all. Yeah, GRRM could do that but it looks confused on his part and that he was trying to put pieces together that don't fit well.