Mafia Mini 87.5 - Trouble at Wittlich - Game Ended.

[Expecto Patronum]

People... I'm here for a bit.. I'm going to grab a bite and then have to tend to somethings before I can get back to the game... but I gotta say that I, too, have no role at all. So you can count that in your theories/cases or w/e you are doing...

I'll see you guys in a while...

[Whiskeyjack]

That's why you put her on tier 2 on your pre-day 2 tiers? I can't understand this. I'd say CF on Tammy made Gert at least PI.

She was on tier 2 because (1) she didn't have any interaction with Tammy that made me feel better about her, and (2) her vote on Tammy would have been good...except she removed it at a critical time and tried to get us to vote Monday instead. That looked somewhat suspicious. But it wasn't enough to put her on tier 1, because I still felt her overall play looked innocent.

Yeah, I completely agree that evil you could prevent Tammy lynch if you wanted. The question is what evil you would want at that point.

If you have decided you were unable to keep your partner unlynched until endgame, you definitely would want her to die earlier than later. It's exactly your style.

Every game is different, and when evil I act as the situation demands. But typically, my preference is to either keep my partner alive the whole game for the flawless victory or to be the one who leads the lynch against them. And I usually either go for strong distancing or I defend them. Weak distancing / ignoring your partner is a good way to get caught.

Reality is that if I had been Tammy's partner and I saw how she was playing, I would have been very concerned, would have probably been the first vote against her, and would have been pushing that lynch all day. The game where you need to be worried about me is the game where I seem overconfident on day 1. Not the game where I list 8 of the other 11 players as top suspects and I'm clearly evaluating people. Basically the opposite of what you're looking for in an inexperienced FM.

[Whiskeyjack]

Did you believe that at that point? Why did you ask this?

The same reason why I ask a lot of questions - to see your reaction.

[Monday]

So answer mine.

eta - Did you believe it?

Etagain- And what if anything did you learn from my reaction?

[TheMalcolm]

Every game is different, and when evil I act as the situation demands. But typically, my preference is to either keep my partner alive the whole game for the flawless victory or to be the one who leads the lynch against them. And I usually either go for strong distancing or I defend them. Weak distancing / ignoring your partner is a good way to get caught.

Ok, I like this answer much.

I probably have to stop being paranoid about you at this point.

[Whiskeyjack]

So answer mine.

eta - Did you believe it?

Yep, I thought you were very likely to be lynched yesterday.

Etagain- And what if anything did you learn from my reaction?

Not much. Had a small positive feeling when you said that you didn't think I'd ask that question if I was FM. But it wasn't enough to make a huge difference in how I viewed you.

Also, was wondering if you would claim a role there to try to save yourself. My perception of that would have been determined by the nature and delivery of the role claim.

[Monday]

Ok, I like this answer much.

I probably have to stop being paranoid about you at this point.

Your timing is awful. Couldn't have waited a few minutes to express that sentiment?

[Whiskeyjack]

Question I'm debating about Sophie right now is whether she and Tammy would have been clever enough to setup their interaction as fake distancing. There's clearly 1 of 2 things going on -

1) If they are FM together, then they decided to implement a plan where Tammy would over-defend Sophie and Sophie would object to it. With the intent to create distance between them.

2) If Sophie is innocent, then Tammy over-defended her to make it look as if there was a connection there. Something we'd track down if Tammy was ever lynched. And Sophie saw that and objected to it.

Can't decide which one I believe.

[Regfan]

Can't sleep and have been skyping with my GF so I thought I'd update myself with the thread. I do not have a role either, I'm entertaining the possibility of this being a vanilla game but at the same time I think that'd probably have been announced if it was the case.

I actually really like WJ's response regarding his interactions with Tammy and buy that he'd avoid weak distancing with his scum partner; I also really like the point that WJ would likely coach Tammy in some manner outside of the thread and no sign of her being coached is show at all.

Right now my tiers are something like;

Sophie, Ethan, SnowStorm

TheMalcolm, Whiskeyjack

BBMolla, Expecto, Monday, Arthur

What don't you understand about my last paragraph? I stated why I disagree with one of your town reads on BBmolla, and made a hypotheticalscenario of why a scum-BBmolla would have cleard town-Expecto.

Ah, now that makes more sense. I still find it more likely that his town read is actually genuine and that he saw a similar thing that I did at the time. Also him 'agreeing' with me is a town tell because my thoughts hadn't been fully stated in the thread at the time.

You're not the only person inside my scum pool. Right now it consists of you, Ethan and Snow.

I'm not going to stop defending my town reads. I'll constantly re-check them and make sure that they aren't incorrectly handed out and that I'm still positive they're town, sure, but I'm not going outright stop them from being pushed on. The short duration of each day phase here makes it so that it's optimal to have scumhunting directed towards hunting null/scum reads, not reaction or pressure pushing town reads.

[Monday]

Yep, I thought you were very likely to be lynched yesterday.

I don't believe this. You are usually in touch with the zeitgeist and it was obvious (to me anyhow) that my train was losing steam.

Also, was wondering if you would claim a role there to try to save yourself. My perception of that would have been determined by the nature and delivery of the role claim.

This sounds reasonable.

Tammy stopped talking a while before the end of the lynch. I believe one of two things happened, she was self concious about linking to a partner and there should be some awkward interactions to cause those self concious feelings, or an experienced FM partner asked her to stop talking to avoid a potential flustered slip on her part because the writing was on the wall, she was probably going to be the lynch.

[Regfan]

I don't think her partner asking her to purposely stop defending herself makes any sense at all. I think if that were the case they'd have asked her to fake claim some form of PR before leaving. Her drop in activity is much more likely her actually being hung up in RL, either that or the first one; she didn't know how to react so she stopped posting and left.

[Regfan]

Going to try and sleep for real this time. I don't know how long before deadline I'l be back but I still prefer a Sophie lynch but wouldn't oppose one on Ethan and possibly Snow though I'd like to hear more from him.

Night all.

[Monday]

I do not have a role either, I'm entertaining the possibility of this being a vanilla game but at the same time I think that'd probably have been announced if it was the case.

I was just wondering if this game was vanilla in spoilers. Those boys would get a kick out of having us chase our tails with a red herring role list. I'm RI, btw.

[TheMalcolm]

Your timing is awful. Couldn't have waited a few minutes to express that sentiment?

Oh, sorry.

But I usually stop thinking after 1am of my local...

[BBmolla]

I'm with-holding whether I have a role or not. It's probably beneficial for me not to claim what I am considering what the rest of you are.

I definitely think last scum is one of Ethan/Sophie though.

[Whiskeyjack]

I definitely think last scum is one of Ethan/Sophie though.

Any reason why you think Snowstorm and Malcolm are innocent?

[Ser-Arthur-Dayne]

I'm back. I'd just like to get some paranioa out of the way, if no one minds.

[paranioa] Reg can be scum. No, I mean, he CAN be scum. Yes, I know. He is cleared for his strong push on Tammy. But what if it was all planned? What is Reg was attacking Tammy so that if he she is lynched, he is in a VERY good position. Also, he never really said he didn't suspect Monday. All he said was that he thinks Tammy would be a better choice. So it wasn't like he was going to object to a Monday lynch if it was going to happen. Maybe he felt the tide turining towards Monday, and decided to push hard on Tammy, as to go 'against the tide'. I mean, if the tide was on Monday, 1 person's views really wouldn't have made a difference. Also, he just seemed too sure of himself. Almost like he knew Tammy was going to flip scum. Also, when I was accusing Monday after of possibly bussing, he declared that it would have been awfully stupid to buss. Again, what if he is saying that to make himself look better, by claming it would've been stupid for Monday, or anyone else, to buss their partner that early. What if he saw the window of opputonity to make himself look very good, and took it? [/paranoia] ETA: He just seemed too push way too hard on Tammy rather on Monday. I can't see how a townie can be that sure o.O.

[Ser-Arthur-Dayne]

Aww, just when I come you guys all leave :(

-SS- I think SS has been playing a roughly normal game. I don't really sense any abnormality, but it really doesn't prove anything. ISO speaking, he doesn't really look that fabulous.

-Ethan- I'll be happy with an Ethan lynch. I really don't see much genuintey in her posts. And that chart sheet proves nothing. It is basically giving thoughts, except on an external source. Would it have made a difference if he gave the same thoughts on thread? Nope. So yea, what about FM makes them incapable of posting fake thoughts??

-BBmolla- I'll be happy with his lynch. He is mostly a roller coaster. Some posts read as slighly townish, while others read as scummy. But overall, he doesn't venture from the null and 'safe' zone too much.

-Sophie- I think she is genuine. I don't really see a lot of scumhunting, but I do see her trying, and it does seem geuine.

-Malc- Pretty much null. Though his posts read as slighly townish.

[Ser-Arthur-Dayne]

I'm gonna ISO WJ and Snow. Everyone else I mostly have a clear stance on.

ETA: And Reg's day1.

[SnowStorm]

I don't have one role to claim.

I've re-read Sophie, I had a town read on her but she has become a lynch candidate, I need to see what's so scummy about her. Before the re-read, I remembered I liked some of the things she said, like when she gave a town read on me because she thought I was shy. She did look like a regular newbie to me. But then I also remembered she had also talked about other player's personalities and playstyles and she was always spot on. I know she said she had read some past rounds, but it sounds like she knows us better than some more regular players. That is weird. I've compiled all the posts where she mentions "knowing someone".

Out of all the players, you're the one I've read the most. I feel like I know you already.

This was her answer to Expecto when he asked her about her vote on him. Ok, so she read a lot about him, that doesn't explain the vote.

I agree on Monday backing up on her suspicions of Arthur is really weird. And from the little I've read him I've noticed he's a heavy emoticons user.

This one is not bad. You don't need read much to know Arthur is emoticondependent.

Well, my vote on him was a random vote. He did give me scummy vibes at first, but his reactions make me lean to town on him (I know he tends to be a little dramatic).

Like the previous fact, you don't need to search too far to know this. In fact he has admitted in this game that he's an attention seeker manly diva. But I find it odd the way she says this. "I know", it sounds like it's something she knows that we don't, something from her personal experience, which could point to her having read lots about him or it could be that someone told her that. I think it doesn't sound natural.

- SnowStorm: Seems town to me. I know SS can be shy, but I've seen some scumhunting from him, so yes, town.

- Tammy: She reacted in an overdefensive kind of way to a few comments made about her, but I don't remember her gameplay, so I don't know how normal this is in her. However, her vote on expecto, for his claim that she was overexplaining, doesn't help her at all. Bordering on scummy.

- Ser-Arthur-Dayne: Now that's another interesting character. His play seems consistent with town gameplay, yes, I know he's never been scum. But for now, town to me.

I think this could be the post that passes my point better. First her read on me. She says I'm town because she knows I can be shy. I think I was so surprised for being read as town that I didn't even thought about the reasons why. But now I'm wondering, how the hell did she knew I am shy?! How can she tell that just by reading some past games? She can't! She just can't! The only way for her to know this is if Tammy told her. Next, the read on Arthur. She knows he's never been scum. How is that relevant for anything? Why would a new player like her bring that up? This too sounds like something Tammy would tell her. Now another interesting part, her read on Tammy. It doesn't look bad overall, but it's really weird that she says she can't remember her gameplay. So she can "remember" that I'm shy, that Arthur has never been scum and that Expecto is dramatic, but she can't remember a single thing from Spammy Tammy? That just doesn't make sense.

What can I say? I guess I'm wary of WJ. Who can blame me? I know he could sell us to the highest bidder and we wouldn't know it (hipothetically speaking of his abilities, of course). If it makes you feel any better, I can call it a gut thing (about SS).

This isn't so bad. She's paranoid of WJ, but I don't like that she uses the expression "I know blablabla..." How does she know that? Did she read a game where WJ was scum? It sounds more like she's echoing what someone else told her. Tammy has never played with scum WJ but she knows he's experienced and she has heard about some of his past games, so she could have given Sophie an idea of WJ's abilities.

Scum can appear to be town (for example, at some point on the Charmed game you were the towniest of them all, yet you weren't), but when put under the spotlight they could crack.

Again it sounds like she's echoing someone else - Tammy. This is just too weird overall. For her to know all that she claims to know she would have had to read a lot of stuff, not only that, she would have had to take notes or have a hell of a memory.

Sophie.