Why can't Aegon be the real deal?

[corbon]

Don't tell me convincing answers exist, give me your 'convincing answers'.

I'm not basing my opinion on any single piece of evidence here. If I had any one of these pieces alone then, yea, it would be a weak case. But all of these things taken together, plus some other things that have been dicussed in this thread, have lead me to my firm belief that Aegon is fake.

Sorry, it just seemed apt to use the words quote for one side to cover the other side. Convincing is probably not the right word either, for either side. 'Reasonable' would be a much better fit.

But since you insist:

-Quaithe warns Dany about a 'mummer's dragon'

As noted several million times, this could just as easily be a real dragon manipulated by a mummer as a fake dragon.

Indeed, if Aegon is a Blackfyre then he is a dragon, so it is very much probably a real dragon being manipulated by a mummer here.

-In the House of the Undying Dany sees a cloth dragon

-Dany is supposed to be the 'slayer of lies'

These two are the same She sees a cloth dragon carried on poles and cheered by a crowd. This is one of the three lies she is supposed to slay.

But what is the lie? Is it that the dragon is fake (she slays the lie it is cloth/fake, proving it is real)?

Is it that the dragon is not a dragon (she shows it is a fake one made of cloth not a real one)?

Is it that the crowds cheer? (the lie is that the smallfolk cheer the dragon, whereas really they adon;t care but are afraid not to cheer)?

Or something similar.

-The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel, a Blackfyre supporter, who vowed to one day seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. The Golden Company is now supporting Aegon

Yes. He gave them a chance to end their exiles and return to Westeros with the full honours etc. Whether he is Blackfyre or Targaryen. And weren't they going to work for Dany?

-Varys is said to have contributed to Aerys' madness, leading many to suspect he is a Blackfyre trying to undermine the Targs

That is a weak supposition on part of one character. Leading to some fairly unsubstantiated speculation about Varys being a Blackfyre. What it comes down to is a circular argument. Varys is a Blackfyre because Varys is a Blackfyre.

Note that being a supposition by one character doesn't make it untrue. It just isn't much to hang anything important, like Varys being a Blackfyre, on.

Note also that everything else Varys has done appears to support Targaryens - he counselled against letting Tywin in to the Red Keep. He was aligned with Illyrio supporting Dany and Viserys. He actively works to undermine the post-Targaryen rule. Now much of these could also work for Blackfyre. But the point is that there is no evidence for Varys being anti-targ (and some for pro-targ) apart from one character's vague supposition. Nothing but one tiny piece of hearsay.

-If Illyrio and Varys are all about Targs, why did they do such a shitty job of helping Dany and Viserys, why didn't they reveal Aegon to them? Perhaps because they actually support the Blackfyres

They didn't do a shitty job. Just Viserys, mister entitlement, wanted an impossible job. Dany and Viserys had all their needs catered for all their lives in exile, whatever they might have thought or felt. End. Of. Story.

And if Aegon was real then he was always the main plan and Viserys and Dany just the backup/decoy.

And why would they reveal Aegon? You don't let your decoy/backup know they are merely a decoy/backup if you can avoid it.

Yes, perhaps because they suipport the Blackfyres. But this is not the only reason. Since it is perfectly explainable in an Aegon's real scenario, there is no requirement for this to point to Blackfyre at all.

-Illyrio appears to be very attached to Young Griff, suggesting that he is his child with a female Blackfyre

So Illyrio is incapable of forming a personal attachment outside his own family?

Just because he seems attached does not suggest that the child must be his. That is a possibility for sure, but not a requirement. This is a major 'construct' that simply isn't required.

Honestly, calling this evidence ridiculously weak is itself ridiculous. You have no reason to believe that Aegon is real except that Varys says "He is here" to Kevan. That is the beginning and end of the case for his genuineness as far as I can tell. And you weigh that against all the history of the Blackfyres and GC, plus the fact that Varys' and Illyrio's plans are logically unsound if they are true Targ loyalists, plus the logical absurdity of the baby switch, and say it's an extraordinarily and ridiculously weak case to say Aegon is fake? Really?

I didn't say that it was an extraordinary and ridiculously weak case to say that Aegon is fake. Its qite a reasonable case, just not as rock solid as some claim. What I said was that some of the presented 'evidence' was extraordinarily, ridiculously, weak. Other evidence is quite reasonable. Some of it can be counter-argued easily, some of it has counter-arguments that are fairly weak (but still there).

The Aegon is real case is built much more on what we are told happened and how people act. Aegon is real has strength based on him being presented as real and a reasonable, logical, workable process of him being real to him being here now that works.

But it is far from conclusive.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The Aegon is real case is built much more on what we are told happened and how people act. Aegon is real has strength based on him being presented as real and a reasonable, logical, workable process of him being real to him being here now that works.

But it is far from conclusive.

The "Aegon is real" evidence seems to be just people believing what Varys says. You'll forgive me if I'm a tad more skeptical.

[Lord Damian]

The "Aegon is real" evidence seems to be just people believing what Varys says. You'll forgive me if I'm a tad more skeptical.

People want to believe Varys because he seemed to be truthful to Ned Stark, I think. the truth was, he had nothing against him and simply wanted him peacefully out of the picture. Varys, despite claiming to have nothing against Kevan still told him about Aegon before he had him seemingly finished off was merely taunting him because he was a Lannister. Varys has no love for the Lannisters. No one really does.

[dtones520]

People want to believe Varys because he seemed to be truthful to Ned Stark, I think. the truth was, he had nothing against him and simply wanted him peacefully out of the picture. Varys, despite claiming to have nothing against Kevan still told him about Aegon before he had him seemingly finished off was merely taunting him because he was a Lannister. Varys has no love for the Lannisters. No one really does.

Where exactly does it say in any book Varys has no love for Lannisters? Varys killed Kevan because he was actually uniting major factions behind Tommen in a very short period of time, which could cause problems for Aegon. He actually states he has nothing against Kevan and is sad he had to kill him.

[corbon]

OK, someone who believes in this baby-switching thing, answer this question for me.

If the baby was switched, why was Elia with him, in whatever room it was where Gregor killed them, instead of with her biological daughter? Elia and the baby were killed together. Rhaenys was killed in a different room, on a different floor, alone. Wouldn't Elia have handed off the fake to a maid or a governess or someone else, and gone to her daughter, especially if the sack was imminent? It's a harsh thing to contemplate, but someone pointed it out and it's stuck with me, and I don't think the action makes sense if the baby Aegon wasn't real. Like I said earlier, this doesn't mean that Elia had to toss the kid down a well or out a window or whatever, but does no one else think it's odd that she'd show seemingly more regard for a switched baby that isn't hers than for her actual daughter?

I'm not convinced of it, but I do believe it was possible and that most of the objections to it are ... fluff.

Rhaenys was killed in a different room, on a different floor (where did the different floor info come from?).

So Gregor is doing his thing, rampaging upwards. So is Ser Armory Lorch. Initially there will be some confusion as the Lannisters are doing their sacking thing - these are the allies just let into the castle to help defend them, right? So Gregor and/or Lorch could easily be a lot of the way through towards the respective rooms before Elia understands what is happening. At that stage she could be cut off from Rhaenys (unlikely I think, unless Elia's and Rhaegar's apartments are widely separated), panicking, ordering her personal guards to defend or rushing to Aegon's side. Or in bed, sickly. Who knows?

As Gregor approaches, perhaps she hears Rhaenys's screams, or perhaps not. A secret passage pops opne and Varys is there with a babe in swaddling. He tells her to swap, he can get Aegon to safety, but she must stay to allay suspicion (or because he cannot hide her or whatever). What can she do? She has no choice? Her guards are dying to the Mountain and fighting at the very door to her room. She swaps babes and Varys disappears while she stands there facing her fate as best she can. Gregor kills the last guard, enters the room, rips the babe out of her hands and dashes it against the wall, then rapes and murders her. If necessary Varys can return when Gregor leaves to makes sure the babe is unrecognisable.

There are many similar, plausible scenarios. I simply don't understand how anyone can think that this isn't possible. The whole castle is a madhouse of rape and murder, all unexpected. Why people expect every character to do the most carefully rational thing like everything is planned, well ordered, has full time, resources and opportunities I don't know. When shit goes down like this you do what you can, how you can, when you can. Ask Arya.

The main problem with the switch is simply as Apple Martini says, a lot of things would have to line up right after the switch in order for it to bare fruit now. How would anyone know the Lannisters would sack King's Landing let alone slaughter Princess Ellia and her children. The fact that it seems well known that Gregor smatched baby Aegon's face/head beyond recognition gives all the opportunity someone like Varys and his friends and associates need to find a replacement and nurture him until the day/time is right to bring him forward.

Varys apparently suspected something was up with the Lannisters. He counselled Aerys not to let them in the gates.

As soon as Aerys orders the gates opened, Varys can go star the switch, or preparation for it. He could possibly be under way before the gates even get opened!

Which is not to say that the face smashed in didn't allow Varys to later set up a fake 'switch'.

Just that the objections to a real 'switch' are pathetic.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

There are many similar, plausible scenarios. I simply don't understand how anyone can think that this isn't possible.

I haven't seen anyone say that a switch is "impossible." I've seen them say that based on the necessity of many, many, many things having to go perfectly right at many different stages, many of which were completely out of Varys' control, a switch is highly, highly implausible and we require more evidence than Varys' word that a switch occurred. ETA: Speaking of, beyond Varys saying, "Oh I totally switched babies," where's the proof that a switch was actually pulled off? In situations like this, the burden of proof falls on proving the positive, i.e. proving a switch occurred, not proving one didn't.

Just that the objections to a real 'switch' are pathetic.

Frankly I find your choice of words to those of differing opinions (lame, nasty, pathetic, etc.) to be extremely rude and not helpful to your argument at all. Grow up.

ETA: Oh, and the information on Rhaenys being on a different floor is from Tywin and Tyrion's discussion in SoS.

Tywin: "He found her (Rhaenys) hiding under her father's bed, as if she believed Rhaegar could still protect her. Princess Elia and the babe were in the nursery a floor below."

I find it difficult to believe that Elia would be with a baby that wasn't even hers during a sack at the expense of her biological daughter who was in a completely different part of the castle. Maybe you don't, but whatever.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

I didn't say that it was an extraordinary and ridiculously weak case to say that Aegon is fake. Its qite a reasonable case, just not as rock solid as some claim. What I said was that some of the presented 'evidence' was extraordinarily, ridiculously, weak. Other evidence is quite reasonable. Some of it can be counter-argued easily, some of it has counter-arguments that are fairly weak (but still there).

The Aegon is real case is built much more on what we are told happened and how people act. Aegon is real has strength based on him being presented as real and a reasonable, logical, workable process of him being real to him being here now that works.

But it is far from conclusive.

Here's the problem. You're spending your time refuting the evidence for the Aegon is fake argument simply by saying, well hey it's conceivable that it went this way instead. Of course it's conceivable that it is a different way from what we're saying! That doesn't prove anything. All you are saying is that it might be another way, not here are my reasons for believing it is this other way.

If I were to state as fact: Aegon must be a Blackfyre, then yes, you could logically disprove that by introducing conceivable alternatives. But what I am saying is, in my opinion, this theory is as solid as any other theory. I am saying, in my opinion this is an extremely solid theory, I believe in this firmly.

I'm not saying it can't be any other way. I'm looking at several pieces of evidence and saying that taken together they point very strongly to Aegon being fake. Taken together, all of these pieces of evidence support one another and convince me of the correctness of the theory. And you are saying, 'but it's possible it could be this other way.' Fine, no dispute there.

But possible doesn't mean likely. And it's not a case. You're not really laying out a case for Aegon being real. You are laying out a case for Aegon being fake being conceivably wrong. I could lay out a case for R+L=J being conceivably wrong just as easily. It would be meaningless.

[dtones520]

The "Aegon is real" evidence seems to be just people believing what Varys says. You'll forgive me if I'm a tad more skeptical.

And the Aegon is fake evidence is based on prophecies, assumptions, and interpretations of Martins text. There is more actual evidence in the book, mainly ADWD, that Aegon is real than that he is fake. No one knows Varys and Illyrios real intentions yet and that fuels everything that is said about Aegon being fake. There is no true evidence that they are even Blackfyre supporters.

People believe Aegon is real based on Varys' word, Jon Connington's belief in him, Tyrion (a very smart man) figuring out who he is. Heck, even the story of his death leaves the possibility of him being alive out there and thats from book one. Book one talks about the secret passages in the Red Keep, hinting at future revelations. So, no, it's not just based on Varys' word. Partly, yes. Fully, no.

I won't be surprised if Aegon is fake, but everything I read tells me he is more likely real than fake. That's my opinion. Obviously you and a lot of other people have their mind made up the other way. But to act like the evidence in the books is strong that Aegon is fake, is a bit silly. Especially when there is more written about him being real.

[Sevumar]

And the Aegon is fake evidence is based on prophecies, assumptions, and interpretations of Martins text. There is more actual evidence in the book, mainly ADWD, that Aegon is real than that he is fake. No one knows Varys and Illyrios real intentions yet and that fuels everything that is said about Aegon being fake. There is no true evidence that they are even Blackfyre supporters.

I can't answer for Martini, but I think she has an important point in that the high difficulty of pulling off the switch successfully and having everything in place to spirit Aegon away from King's Landing safely, without notice, and in time, makes it highly unlikely that Young Griff is actually Aegon. Like everyone else, I think there's always a chance that Aegon could be the very same child that Gregor is supposed to have killed. Many unlikely things have had to happen for the events in the story to end up as they are, but I have the feeling that this is one string of unlikely events too many to be true.

I think that even though there's little direct evidence in the story to support a Blackfyre allegiance for Illyrio and Varys, that theory does seem to offer the best explanation for Varys's and Illyrio's actions.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

And the Aegon is fake evidence is based on prophecies, assumptions, and interpretations of Martins text. There is more actual evidence in the book, mainly ADWD, that Aegon is real than that he is fake. No one knows Varys and Illyrios real intentions yet and that fuels everything that is said about Aegon being fake. There is no true evidence that they are even Blackfyre supporters.

But what is it?

Surely not this:

People believe Aegon is real based on Varys' word, Jon Connington's belief in him, Tyrion (a very smart man) figuring out who he is. Heck, even the story of his death leaves the possibility of him being alive out there and thats from book one. Book one talks about the secret passages in the Red Keep, hinting at future revelations. So, no, it's not just based on Varys' word. Partly, yes. Fully, no.

1. Jon Connington met this child when he was like 5 years old, not an infant. He's also still hung up over Rhaegar and fostering a guilt complex. He believes what he wants to believe.

2. Tyrion figured out who the kid was being passed off as, but he also wonders himself if he's the real deal.

3. The Red Keep's passages have played roles other than in the switch to make their inclusion important. Tyrion's escape being an example.

I won't be surprised if Aegon is fake, but everything I read tells me he is more likely real than fake. That's my opinion. Obviously you and a lot of other people have their mind made up the other way. But to act like the evidence in the books is strong that Aegon is fake, is a bit silly. Especially when there is more written about him being real.

Again, I ask, of what evidence do you speak? A professional liar's word? The word of someone who didn't meet the child until several years after he was supposedly smuggled out?

I think that even though there's little direct evidence in the story to support a Blackfyre allegiance for Illyrio and Varys, that theory does seem to offer the best explanation for Varys's and Illyrio's actions.

Thanks for your post. And a note on this: I've pointed out several times that Martin tends to spit out lies and leave truths to be sorted out by readers. I think Aegon's real story is one of these. The clues are scattered — a compilation of the prophecies, anecdotes about the Blackfyre rebellion, Illyrio's behavior and attitude toward the child, literary symbolism (the washed away and returned dragon sign) and piecing together what we know about the sack. The truth is left for readers to piece together themselves, and the lie is spoken outright ("Aegon was switched").

[corbon]

I haven't seen anyone say that a switch is "impossible." I've seen them say that based on the necessity of many, many, many things having to go perfectly right at many different stages, many of which were completely out of Varys' control, a switch is highly, highly implausible and we require more evidence than Varys' word that a switch occurred. ETA: Speaking of, beyond Varys saying, "Oh I totally switched babies," where's the proof that a switch was actually pulled off? In situations like this, the burden of proof falls on proving the positive, i.e. proving a switch occurred, not proving one didn't.

"highly, highly implausible" is exactly what I'm arguing against. I'm not insisting that a switch definitely happened or trying to prove that it did. I just don't see it as even being very difficult to do, let alone the highly, highly implausible that you insist. If you just said, "i'm not convinced that the switch really happened', then I wouldn't be arguing - neither am I. But when you argue that it is implausible, highly highly implausible, using reasoning that I think simply doesn't stack up I've got something better to do than work...

I don't see anything which has to be out of Varys' control enough so that he couldn't have it covered pretty easily. I've pointed out a bunch of things to this effect, yet al I see is the same "so many things coming together, Varys couldn't control, etc etc.

I can see this as a very simple operation, with everything totally under control in a 'controlled chaos' kind of way.

Varys has a vaguely Targ-featured kid from flea bottom that he had weeks or months to find, hidden away inside the keep preparing for 'protection from Aerys' plan later. Heck, even more simple, possibly its just standard procedure to have potential 'doubles' available like the kid sent with Myrcella to Dhorne.

Varys suspects Tywin, as indicated by him counselling Aerys to keep the gates shut.

Aerys orders the Lannisters let in and Varys immediately goes off to get his fake Aegon and heads to make the switch.

He makes the switch only just in time as in my earlier scenario (Elia knows) or even with a little to spare before Elia gets back to her rooms (fake Aegon is drugged asleep and Elia doesn't have time or opportunity to find out). Or something similar in between those two scenarios. Either way Rhaaenys just isn't possible (nor as important).

Gregor does his thing.

If Fake Aegon wasn't unrecognisable there is a fair chance a hanging-around-in-a-secret-passageway-still Varys can rectify that. Or even that the fake was close enough to fool non-family who'd never met the child anyway.

Varys can keep real Aegon in the same place as his little birds for as long as he wants, or get him on a ship immediately, just as he did with Tyrion.

Now what, in all that, is not relatively under control, easily set up, consistent with what we know and well within Varys' known capabilities?

ETA: Oh, and the information on Rhaenys being on a different floor is from Tywin and Tyrion's discussion in SoS.

Tywin: "He found her (Rhaenys) hiding under her father's bed, as if she believed Rhaegar could still protect her. Princess Elia and the babe were in the nursery a floor below."

Cool, thanks.

I find it difficult to believe that Elia would be with a baby that wasn't even hers during a sack at the expense of her biological daughter who was in a completely different part of the castle. Maybe you don't, but whatever.

Probably she wasn't. Possibly she was but didn't know. Possibly she was caught by surprise by the treacherous attack and unable to get to Rhaenys in a separate part of the castle before being attacked. Implausibly (if not highly highly implausibly) she knew and stayed by a fake. There are still many reasonable (and some unreasonable) possibilities here. That means that this is not a reasonable objection to plausibility.

Here's the problem. You're spending your time refuting the evidence for the Aegon is fake argument simply by saying, well hey it's conceivable that it went this way instead. Of course it's conceivable that it is a different way from what we're saying! That doesn't prove anything. All you are saying is that it might be another way, not here are my reasons for believing it is this other way.

If we are just speaking 50-70% likelihood, then fine. But the statements made by several people seem to me to be pointing at 98%+ Aegon Blackfyre and 2%- Aegon real. Which I find unreasonable and worth arguing against.

If I were to state as fact: Aegon must be a Blackfyre, then yes, you could logically disprove that by introducing conceivable alternatives. But what I am saying is, in my opinion, this theory is as solid as any other theory. I am saying, in my opinion this is an extremely solid theory, I believe in this firmly.

Roght, and since R+L=J is something in the range of 95-99.9%, you are claiming that so is Aegon Blackfyre. I'm merely countering that argument because I think though very plausible, it is nowhere near that strong and to claim it is does a dis-service to other options.

I'm not saying it can't be any other way. I'm looking at several pieces of evidence and saying that taken together they point very strongly to Aegon being fake. Taken together, all of these pieces of evidence support one another and convince me of the correctness of the theory. And you are saying, 'but it's possible it could be this other way.' Fine, no dispute there.

Its not just possible, its very reasonable. Which means we must be down to something like 30-70% for each theory, if both are reasonable and plausible. I'm really just arguing about the 95%+ case, which is the impression I get from a lot of statements - including anything that says "I'm convinced" (as opposed to "I think this one the most likely).

Its entirely possible we are merely having a difference of languuage, in which case I've had an enjoyavble morning with my head in Westeros, thanks and sorry for your trouble.

But possible doesn't mean likely. And it's not a case. You're not really laying out a case for Aegon being real. You are laying out a case for Aegon being fake being conceivably wrong. I could lay out a case for R+L=J being conceivably wrong just as easily. It would be meaningless.

You are right, I'm not laying out the case for Aegon being real - I'm not trying to. I'm making the point that Aegon being real is still a reasonable alternative, which necessarily drops that probabilities of Aegon being Blackfyre. Its a zero-sum game.

I don't think you can lay out anywhere near as reasonable a case for R+L=J being wrong BTW.

[dtones520]

I can't answer for Martini, but I think she has an important point in that the high difficulty of pulling off the switch successfully and having everything in place to spirit Aegon away from King's Landing safely, without notice, and in time, makes it highly unlikely that Young Griff is actually Aegon. Like everyone else, I think there's always a chance that Aegon could be the very same child that Gregor is supposed to have killed. Many unlikely things have had to happen for the events in the story to end up as they are, but I have the feeling that this is one string of unlikely events too many to be true.

I think that even though there's little direct evidence in the story to support a Blackfyre allegiance for Illyrio and Varys, that theory does seem to offer the best explanation for Varys's and Illyrio's actions.

.

You also seem to be assuming that the sack of kings landing happened in a very short period of time. Tywin's army had to leave Casterly Rock, travel to Kings Landing, get to the closed gate, wait for Aerys to open said gate, reach the Red Keep, which was now being defended and has gates of its own, get into the Red Keep, find the Children and Elia and kill them. This, to me, seems like ample time for Varys to figure out that Tywin is on his way, realize Aerys is desperate for help, find some lowlife in Flea Bottom and take his kid, sell Elia on the swap if Kings Landing falls. I don't think Varys realized that Elia and Rhaenys would be killed. Aerys was a deadman no matter what happened. Aegon, was probably going to die, being a male heir or was going to be taken into captivity by Tywin. So he wanted to get Aegon out.

In the end, Aerys opens the gates, what Varys feared happened and he pops in with the fake baby and takes off with Aegon. I don't really think that Gregor knew what Aegon looked like, nor was he smart enough to figure it out. He was probably more concerned with raping Elia than anything. It isn't going to take much for him to smash an infants head in, especially with what he did to Oberyns face. And even if he let Elia, Rhaenys and "Aegon" live what is Tywin going to do when he figures out that Aegon is gone? The same thing that was done with Viserys and Dany...nothing. Robert won the Throne.

So, if Elia lives, she lives knowing Aegon lives and knows who has him. But she had to get the rightful Heir out of Kings Landing. Varys knew this and sold her on it or he didn't tell her about it and switched the baby on her and she died wondering where her son was.

Anyway, long story short,I don't think the events of the sack happened in a blazingly fast period of time and think Varys had enough intell to know what Tywin was probably going to do and come up with a backup plan. Kings Landing is a big City and once Tywin was in all he had to do was make his way to Elia and Aegon, and get the F outta there. Just my thoughts on the events.

[dtones520]

Also, my theory is that Varys believes, like Rhaegar, that Aegon is the PTWP. So, there lies his motivation to save Aegon. I'm tired and am going to bed, but I can divulge on that at a later time.

In the end these are all theories and are fun to chat about. That is what makes these books great. Only one man knows the answer, all the rest is your and my interpretation of what is presented to us.

[Gala]

Oh,my God, why I have to sleep when there is such a great discussion going on, hate that time difference…:) I've read all your post and I've come to conclusion that there are not actual evidences of Aegon being Targ or Blackfyre or even Ilirio's son, there are things that can be interpreted as hints to all of those theories. There are no clear and truthful evidence, so it is a matter of personal "desires" and interpretations (do not want to offend anybody, just admitting that any of these theories has a right/chance to exist and to be supported).

It seems that switching is the most problematic to believe. I agree, there are "hundreds" of scenarios of switching, but my main doubt is Tywin actually: he specifically wanted a child to be recognizable and when he saw the child's smashed head, I am almost 100% sure that he questioned Gregor whether he did it or not. If that monster said he didn't, Tywin would look for the baby (I am also 100% sure). The chances that Gregor would smash the child's head were unpredictable, what if it was Lorch, who came for Aegon and Ellia, he would kill both with the sword, like he did with Rhaenys. Of course, Gregor would be in a specific state of mind (I actually believe him to be ill mentally) and after a (let's call it) rage stroke he would not be sure whether he did or not, such possibility is also out of Varys' control. So Tywin wouldn't let a Targ heir be alive. Don't get me wrong, I am not inventing to support any kind of theory, I just theorizing events, that's all.

On the other hand, Varys uses secret passages quite successfully, so switching would be both possible and secret. But (as a reader) I don't actually buy all this switching… because of many reasons and doubts I have, which are not factually supported, I just saw few hints. the main reason though because it's too ideal, I mean all parts of peaces put together easily: Varys and secret passages, Varys and stealing valuables, Varys protecting the realm, wanting a fair and good king (I just don't see him altruistic, he is no less responsible for all the people's blood than any other lord in the game and in the realm, so claiming that he is protecting the realm is ridiculous, but that just me), and finally Varys switching the babe Aegon before his head was (so conveniently) smashed.

As somebody said the appearance of Aegon and being him a true hero, king, tPtwP etc just cheapens the other characters 'lives'. He would probably sit the throne and be a king (there is such possibility), but I really doubt that he is 1) Targ and Rhaegar and Elia's son 2) therefore, the PtwP 3) AA or any other hero, important for the realm's saving from Winter/Others' threat. I am prone to think that he is a Blackfyre, but raised to think he is Aegon Targ.

And finally (that is my personal feeling) I was very disappointed, when Tyrion discovered boy's identity. It seemed to be so uninteresting and easy, but then I thought "Stop! That's Martin, there is nothing 100% sure in his books, until it's clearly stated there." That is not an evidence, it just a nature of my doubts. Though, I must admit that Aegon appearance add some interesting twist to the story.

[Eejit]

OK, someone who believes in this baby-switching thing, answer this question for me.

If the baby was switched, why was Elia with him, in whatever room it was where Gregor killed them, instead of with her biological daughter? Elia and the baby were killed together. Rhaenys was killed in a different room, on a different floor, alone. Wouldn't Elia have handed off the fake to a maid or a governess or someone else, and gone to her daughter, especially if the sack was imminent? It's a harsh thing to contemplate, but someone pointed it out and it's stuck with me, and I don't think the action makes sense if the baby Aegon wasn't real. Like I said earlier, this doesn't mean that Elia had to toss the kid down a well or out a window or whatever, but does no one else think it's odd that she'd show seemingly more regard for a switched baby that isn't hers than for her actual daughter?

Easy.

Varys pops out as Tywin's forces enter the city/approach RK and offers Elia a fake, promising to take real Aegon to safety. Says he can't save her or Rhaenys, but that by trying to protect the Flea Bottom child and keeping it close as if it were Aegon Elia increases his chances of safety.

As for why wasn't she with both her children? Them being on different floors was the case whether Aegon was switched or not... Perhaps Elia couldn't trust Rhaenys to not yell out "BUT THAT ISN'T REALLY EGGY!" or some-such just as their executioners arrived...

[YgritteRegrets]

I think Aegon is the real deal. Considering the situation at the time of Robert's Revolt, it is plausible for Rhaegar to set about a baby switch strategy (with Vary's help) to protect Aegon before he departed King's Landing. Rhaegar did believe that Aegon could be the Chosen One and thus extra security measures could have been arranged for him when he knew he had incurred Robert's wrath....

[the Scorpion Knight]

No.. the brattiness is brattiness. Tyrion didn't want Aegon to take him seriously. He was being Tyrion and having a little fun at fake Aegon's expense. It would have been better for him to join forces with Dany and her dragons rather than invading Westros. I highly doubt that she is going to allow Aegon to usurp her claim to the throne. More likely than not Aegon will become a delicious Drogon snack.

actually its the other way around aegon has the better claim

[kg1982]

actually its the other way around aegon has the better claim

Dany thinks that she has the rightful claim, so it doesn't matter.

[Bayard]

First of all, I think that the evidence that Aegon is false are a hack a lot more than that he is real.... and honestly at the moment I don't know where Martin is headed. Of course he always does this, point in two directions. He planned the Aegon angle from the start, he was very careful to prepare it, careful what he said through the years, not the let it sleap that he is either dead or alive .... did he want to have a real Aegon at first and now wants a pretender?? who knows. At the moment I would say there are 25% chances he is real, 1/4 :) just like the number of oppinions in this topic. Myself, I want him to be real, I am getting fed up with all this multiple scenarios.... in Martin's mind there are only 2 more books remaining, and we still have so many plots to solve, a couple of invasions and a couple of wars, add to that all the small stories, and we simply don't have anymore time for guessing. It's the time for action, work with what we already have. (maybe it's the asoiaf deprivation talking :) )

Anyway, all this talk about the switch is not so important. If GRRM wants it to work, he will find a way. First why do we assume that Varys took the child??? In the books he never talks in the first person, only like this: "Aegon was taken...., was saved ....." and so on. I agree when people say that Elia had no reason to trust Varys, he was new in court, still a young man, not from Westeros.... and I think she wouldn't have trusted him. I find it more plausable that she thought the switch herself. Elia was a very smart woman, I don't know where we know this from, but it's clear in my mind, and of course, she and Oberyn were extremly close.... that's saying something about her, she was more like the Red Viper, than Duran. Was she a sick woman? yes, so what? there was nothing wrong with her mind :). She didn't need to guess what Tywin was planning, it was enough that the armies of Robert, Ned, Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn were already near the Crown Lands. KL is a huge city, but not a good fortress.... she would have been a lot safer in Dorne, with her brothers!! Dorne has superb natural defenses, it is vulnerable only by sea.... but we know that the only fleet in Westeros was loyal to the Targaryens. Unfortunately for her, she was the hostage to a mad man, she couldn't go, her daughter couldn't leave.... but a baby is a completly different thing. At that moment I think a switch was more than logical, not to keep all her "eggs" in the same bascket, and also keep him safe from Aerys. Would a mother send away her 1 year old baby??? of course she would, to keep him safe.

From this point come the assumptions.... who would she trust to help her with the switch? I guess Rhaegar, if he was there (most likely he was not), her brothers or her lady's companion..... and of course I think that she used Ashara Dayne. Why her and not Oberyn?? well, maybe she didn't have acces to him, to ravens .... I can only guess, and of course this theory is based on the idea that she had contact to Ashara, or even more, that Ashara went to KL during the war. (because this is only guessing, I could also say Elia didn't want to involve her brothers, fearing they would be executed for treason if the switch was discovered.... like she saw happened to the starks). So, what I am saying is that Elia prepared the switch, and she did it months in advance.... because I think it's the logical thing to do. Did she fail?? did she succeed? did she do it months before the sacking of KL? did she do it that very same day??? well we don't know. What I think we know, is that Varys found out about those plans, for sure....

If we believe that Aegon is real, than I think it's far more plausable to say that he was switched months before the sacking, weeks.... anyway, not that same day. Personally I think, Ashara took the child, of course, there could be someone completly different (not that important), Varys knew about it and changed Elia's plan to suit his own agenda. I say again, Varys, doesn't say he did anything on his own :). I can't remember the exact words... but I think he tells Kevan, that Aegon was wisked away just before the sacking.... that of course makes us think of that day, but it could easily be a lot earlier. Nobody would have known that it was another baby.... I mean how many people do you think had access to the prince? the mother, a wet nurse... and maybe a maester, which Elia could simply refuse to see. A child with blond hair was enough to trick everyone. The fact that The Mountain destroyes the babys face, is not too conveniant.... because nobody could have recognised the baby, it is simply a hint used by Martin in the first books..... and not a very well planned one. Of this I am sure, GRRM just put it there, and I think at that time he hadn't really thought out the complete story for Aegon (fake or real).

OK, someone who believes in this baby-switching thing, answer this question for me.

If the baby was switched, why was Elia with him, in whatever room it was where Gregor killed them, instead of with her biological daughter? Elia and the baby were killed together. Rhaenys was killed in a different room, on a different floor, alone. Wouldn't Elia have handed off the fake to a maid or a governess or someone else, and gone to her daughter, especially if the sack was imminent? It's a harsh thing to contemplate, but someone pointed it out and it's stuck with me, and I don't think the action makes sense if the baby Aegon wasn't real. Like I said earlier, this doesn't mean that Elia had to toss the kid down a well or out a window or whatever, but does no one else think it's odd that she'd show seemingly more regard for a switched baby that isn't hers than for her actual daughter?

Well, this is a very good question, when applied to what I said above. I don't have an answer, simply because we know very little about that day. And all we know actually is hear-say, at best.... the closest info we have comes from Tywin, who was far away from the castle at that time (as he always did, stayed at a safe distance from danger during battles). I could guess a couple of scenarios, that might make sense. For example, she had no idea what was happening.... of course the city was preparing for a siege, so there were already many soldiers outside, so the noise of the Lannisters was nothing new, it is possible, they managed to enter all the way to the castle before they attacked..... It is possible that she was completly surprised, the first place the Lannister soldiers went was the iron throne and her room.

Another idea, it is a medieval world, all the royal figures have their own chambers, their own appartments and staff. Rhaenys was already a little lady, so she had her own chambers, maybe not so close to the ones of her mother. And we know for a fact that she was not there, she was hiding in her father's room..... why would Elia search for her there??? Rhaenys was probably surprised while she was playing through the castle.... I could go on, but it's useless. I don't think she cared more for the baby, than for Rhaenys, the fact that she was killed by his side is not a proof of that, only that nobody was expecting what happened. And the fact that she was with him isn't strange at all, not when you read my theory..... it was important for very few people to be close to the baby, she couldn't leave an endless parade of servents taking care of him.

What is weird, is that she died protecting the baby, why would she do that if it wasn't hers???? wright?? wrong.... she is a mother, it's simple maternal instinct, damn, human instinct... to protect the helpless. Even more, I don't think the switched baby was taken from Flea Bottom, I kind of like the idea that Ashara and Elia exchanged babies :), so he was blue blooded.

Anyway, just like Apple Martini said, I think we will argue about this all the way until ADOS is printed, and in the end, we will not have an answer : :dunce: :bang: I really hope this doesn't happen GRRM :bowdown:

[FanTasy]

The "Aegon is real" evidence seems to be just people believing what Varys says. You'll forgive me if I'm a tad more skeptical.

And you should be! Although I've seen many posts these last months of people who based their thoughts about Aegon possible not a fake on a construct of other clues, not only at the last chapter of ADWD.

As soon as AGOT was published people were keeping an open eye for the possibility that Baby Aegon was not dead. GRRM has been asked questions about this many times, years and years ago. I suppose suspicions were raised when GRRM said (sorry, don't have the quote) when asked about the children that Rhaenys was dead?