Why can't Aegon be the real deal?

[Buried Treasure]

What about the crossroads inn? I don't think anybody made the connection on their first read. It seems to be major foreshadowing by GRRM. Unless you believe it to just be a red herring, but like I said, I don't think anybody picked it up on their first read. GRRM has said many times that we the fans catch things much easier than he expects, but that will not lead to any changes in the story for the sake of things being unexpected. It was too subtle to be a red herring, too fitting and uninformative to be there just for the sake of a story. I cannot see it as anything but foreshadowing, but that is an opinion since, like you said, there is no proof at all as of yet.

I think it more likely that was just a story that somebody told that has no great significance. Not even a red herring, just a few of sentences in a long book that have ended up getting a lot of attention because we pay attention to everything (and too much attention to some things!)

If Aegon does turn out to be a Blackfyre then I would agree with the interpretation of the red & black sign as foreshadowing, just as if Aegon turns out to be real I will end up agreeing that 'mummer's dragon' means a Targaryen sponsered by Varys. At the moment I accept both as valid possible theories - but theories that I disagree with.

At the moment opinion on the board is pretty evenly spread, there is decent support for all options of Aegon is Blackfyre / Targaryen / neither (though the breakdown of which is most popular varies a lot from thread to thread). George may never give us more information, but I suspect at some late point we are going to get a decisive piece of information that will shift opinion to 80-90%+ in favour of one answer. The sign at the crossroads isn't that piece of information, it might convince the undecided but it won't cause a lot of people to cross the great divide.

[Faint]

At the moment opinion on the board is pretty evenly spread, there is decent support for all options of Aegon is Blackfyre / Targaryen / neither (though the breakdown of which is most popular varies a lot from thread to thread) . . .

I don't know if you're correct in your assessment or not but, if so, I find that really surprising. I would have never guessed, especially right after reading ADwD, that there was any sizable group of readers that actually believed Aegon to be Aegon Targaryen VI.

[Gentso]

I believe him to be Aegon Targaryen because there isn't any doubt amongst the characters in the story. Tyrion didn't suspect at all that Aegon is a fabrication of Varys, and Kevan was there when Tywin presented the two bodies to Robert. He recalls that he recognized Rhaenys but not Aegon. I don't believe Varys told a dead mean a lie. I just think that if Aegon were a fake there would be a whole slew if transparent clues as there are for foreshadowing of other events.

[Dragonfish]

I believe him to be Aegon Targaryen because there isn't any doubt amongst the characters in the story. Tyrion didn't suspect at all that Aegon is a fabrication of Varys,

Sure he does. He is dripping with skepticism when discussing the supposed baby switch, and when Young Griff knocks over the cyvasse table, Tyrion says to himself, "Perhaps he is a Targaryen after all," indicating that he wasn't so sure before.

and Kevan was there when Tywin presented the two bodies to Robert. He recalls that he recognized Rhaenys but not Aegon.

He doesn't recall that the baby didn't look like Aegon though, he only recalls that no one was really sure it was him. This doesn't really support either theory.

I don't believe Varys told a dead mean a lie.

This has been addressed multiple times in multiple threads, so I really don't have the energy to contest this right now. Suffice it to say, people have offered plenty of reasons for why Varys says what he says to Kevan in this scene, and any one of them sounds plausible to me.

[The Oncoming Storm]

I don't beleive he's real simply because it's too similar to the False Dmitry. Killed as a child, then turned up later "alive".

[Gentso]

Sure he does. He is dripping with skepticism when discussing the supposed baby switch, and when Young Griff knocks over the cyvasse table, Tyrion says to himself, "Perhaps he is a Targaryen after all," indicating that he wasn't so sure before.

I don't know, I didn't get that impression upon reading. Perhaps he's a Targ afterall is normal to say after believing him to be young Griff for a while.

He doesn't recall that the baby didn't look like Aegon though, he only recalls that no one was really sure it was him. This doesn't really support either theory.

When George says things like, "All I have to say is that there is absolutely no doubt that little Princess Rhaenys was dragged from beneath her father's bed and slain" when asked if Rhaegar's children are dead I think it supports Aegon being alive!

I don't know, I dislike theories just because it could true. The R+L=J theories go off of overwhelming evidence from the books, but adwd doesn't have any transparent clues at all. The dragon must have three heads, besides.

[Dragonfish]

I don't know, I didn't get that impression upon reading. Perhaps he's a Targ afterall is normal to say after believing him to be young Griff for a while.

I don't think so. People usually say "perhaps X is Y after all" when they were previously unsure X was Y.

When George says things like, "All I have to say is that there is absolutely no doubt that little Princess Rhaenys was dragged from beneath her father's bed and slain" when asked if Rhaegar's children are dead I think it supports Aegon being alive!

No, this supports the idea that Aegon possibly being alive will become a plotline. It does not support the idea that Aegon is definitely alive. George is just leaving all options open with this quote.

I don't know, I dislike theories just because it could true. The R+L=J theories go off of overwhelming evidence from the books, but adwd doesn't have any transparent clues at all. The dragon must have three heads, besides.

I'd say this theory has evidence to support it. It's not as overwhelming as the evidence for R+L=J, to be sure, but there is evidence nonetheless. As a brief summary, we have:

1) The "mummer's dragon" prophecy, which is associated with the line "slayer of lies."

2) Moqorro's line about there being "dragons old and young, bright and dark, true and false" or some such.

3) Septon Meribald's story about a black dragon sign being thrown into the river and washing ashore rusted red, perhaps symbolizing that a Blackfyre will return in the guise of a Targaryen.

There are some other smaller clues, like Illyrio's reaction to not getting to see Young Griff, which some view as a hint that Illryio is really Aegon's father. But otherwise, those three clues above constitute most of the evidence in favor of the theory. Not exactly a "slam dunk," I admit, but there is at least some evidence.

[7V3N]

I don't know if you're correct in your assessment or not but, if so, I find that really surprising. I would have never guessed, especially right after reading ADwD, that there was any sizable group of readers that actually believed Aegon to be Aegon Targaryen VI.

I'd say most believe him to be fake actually. Maybe like a 60/40 split between fake and real. The fakes are pretty split on whether or not he is a Blackfyre.

I believe him to be Aegon Targaryen because there isn't any doubt amongst the characters in the story. Tyrion didn't suspect at all that Aegon is a fabrication of Varys, and Kevan was there when Tywin presented the two bodies to Robert. He recalls that he recognized Rhaenys but not Aegon. I don't believe Varys told a dead mean a lie. I just think that if Aegon were a fake there would be a whole slew if transparent clues as there are for foreshadowing of other events.

GRRM put that there so that this can be a big mystery. The body (just an infant) was crushed against a wall by the biggest brute of a man Westeros has seen, so I have the feeling that bash was pretty strong. Hence it being unrecognizable. It is there to allow doubt as to whether or not the baby was Aegon. It is not proof for either case in any way.

When George says things like, "All I have to say is that there is absolutely no doubt that little Princess Rhaenys was dragged from beneath her father's bed and slain" when asked if Rhaegar's children are dead I think it supports Aegon being alive!

No, that is GRRM knowing how to create hype. He intended for there to be a major discussion on whether Aegon is real or not, and whether or not he is truly a Blackfyre. Our debate (this whole thread) is a product of GRRM's intentional writing.

[Cuttlefish]

I don't know if he is real or not, but I'd definetly want him to be real, because, well, what's the point of introducing a new "real heir" to the series for him to turn out to be a friggin fake? TWIST Aegon lives TWIST no he doesn't!

[Buried Treasure]

I don't know if he is real or not, but I'd definetly want him to be real, because, well, what's the point of introducing a new "real heir" to the series for him to turn out to be a friggin fake? TWIST Aegon lives TWIST no he doesn't!

Because at the moment we don't have TWIST 'Aegon lives' we have TWIST 'Varys has arranged for a boy to believe he is Aegon'

leaving us in GREAT SUSPENSE 'Is Aegon real?' 'What are Varys' true motives?'

[the Scorpion Knight]

a Thought that come in sleep: what if the shield doesn't represent Aegon but the GC. the leave the shore "bearing" a black dragon and land with a red

[Screaming Knight]

a Thought that come in sleep: what if the shield doesn't represent Aegon but the GC. the leave the shore "bearing" a black dragon and land with a red

I like this.

[Dragonfish]

a Thought that come in sleep: what if the shield doesn't represent Aegon but the GC. the leave the shore "bearing" a black dragon and land with a red

It's not a shield, it's a sign constructed in the shape of a dragon. Therefore, IMO, the best interpretation is that it represents the dragons themselves (House Targaryen and House Blackfyre) rather than those who support them.

[Silmarien]

I don't know if you're correct in your assessment or not but, if so, I find that really surprising. I would have never guessed, especially right after reading ADwD, that there was any sizable group of readers that actually believed Aegon to be Aegon Targaryen VI.

I find it surprising too. I felt suspicious the moment I read that "Aegon" was supposedly Rhaegar's son and that a "baby swap" really happened. Tyrion is very skeptical, if you recall. "Perhaps he is a Targaryen after all..." and him looking at Illyrio with suspicion due to the level of emotional reaction he displays when sending him off to the boat with "Young Griff".

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

When George says things like, "All I have to say is that there is absolutely no doubt that little Princess Rhaenys was dragged from beneath her father's bed and slain" when asked if Rhaegar's children are dead I think it supports Aegon being alive!

This ... doesn't really support anything. It supports AN Aegon showing up eventually, not THE Aegon. If Martin had said that yes Aegon was killed, we'd know off the bat that this one was fake. If he said that no Aegon was not killed, we'd know he was real. We're not meant to know conclusively (yet), so he gave a vague response. But it certainly does not support the idea that this Aegon is real.

[Aegon I]

War of the Roses.... Perkin Warbeck

[SerBlackfyre]

This has been discussed many times over the highlights of the Aegon is fake argument:

-Quaithe warns Dany about a 'mummer's dragon'

-In the House of the Undying Dany sees a cloth dragon

-Dany is supposed to be the 'slayer of lies'

-The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel, a Blackfyre supporter, who vowed to one day seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. The Golden Company is now supporting Aegon

-Varys is said to have contributed to Aerys' madness, leading many to suspect he is a Blackfyre trying to undermine the Targs

-If Illyrio and Varys are all about Targs, why did they do such a shitty job of helping Dany and Viserys, why didn't they reveal Aegon to them? Perhaps because they actually support the Blackfyres

-Illyrio appears to be very attached to Young Griff, suggesting that he is his child with a female Blackfyre

This post just swayed me, especially the mummers dragon part from the Quaithe.

[Fire and Blood!]

I think a more appropriate question is "Why so many people want Aegon to be fake?", because after all there is no real proof so everyone belives what he personally wants to.Personally I am surprised there is so much scepticism about him.

[protar]

I think a more appropriate question is "Why so many people want Aegon to be fake?", because after all there is no real proof so everyone belives what he personally wants to.Personally I am surprised there is so much scepticism about him.

Sarcasm?

[protar]

I think a more appropriate question is "Why so many people want Aegon to be fake?", because after all there is no real proof so everyone belives what he personally wants to.Personally I am surprised there is so much scepticism about him.

Sarcasm?