Learning to lead? A re-read project of the Dany and Jon ADWD chapters

[Lyanna Stark]

This leads to an interesting "cognitive dissonance" between the men of the Night's Watch on one side and Jon, the Wildlings, and the reader on the other. I think later chapters will offer better opportunity to debate whether Jon ought to have been more open with his men on the subject, but for now, I wanted to explore reader perception of the Wildling situation as it compares to the Slavers. I think many of us, myself included, have come away from reading about the Wildlings with a generally favorable interpretation of them.

This is an excellent point. I often wondered why people hate the Ghiscari so much but are totally ok with the Wildlings and the Ironborn. There really is a level of cognitive dissonance!

One reason may be that Dany herself thinks about how she dislikes the Ghiscari and doesn't actually want to rule them, but she feels she has to. A lot of the dislike for the Ghiscari is actually is taking Dany's words at face value! Same as a lot of people take Cersei's words that Sansa is stupid to heart or that Tyrion's suffering is so great he deserves to be loved by a pretty girl: the dangers of POVs and the character's own viewpoints. We tend to take people's views as objective truths.

Apart from that, I agree that it really ties together that we get more character interaction from Val, Mance, Tormund, etc. while far less so from the slavers. We see a bit of it from Tyrion's POV where he reflects that a lot of the slaves exist in a similar kind of life as servants in Westeros, but not enough to really form an opinion of them as anything near individuals.

[Yeade]

I'm honestly terrible at speculating about authorial intent, so I won't question whether GRRM writes the wildlings and slavers of Essos the way he does to present Jon and Dany's actions, respectively, in a certain light by relation in the minds of his readers. However, I find that many of the posters, myself included, who are in agreement with Jon's decisions in ADWD approach the problem from a military perspective.

Dany actually has some advantages over Jon in this regard, IMO, because the Yunkish host has elected to besiege Meereen. While a direct assault on the city walls may not be feasible, a protracted siege means the attackers are in plain view of the defenders, who have time to think up tactics to reestablish lines of communication and break out. The poor conditions in the Yunkish camps--bad organization and sanitation as disease runs rampant, low morale with mercenary companies sitting idle--have led in fact to the initiative of the campaign slipping away from the Yunkai'i and supporting Volantene fleet to the Meereenese despite the latter ostensibly being the ones who are trapped. Successful siege warfare means staying active and putting continuous pressure on the besieged by reinforcing and extending the lines, probing the defenses for weaknesses, etc. By the end of ADWD, I feel Meereen's attackers have failed in this and, consequently, may have lost the battle before it's rightly begun.

Jon, OTOH, not only does not have the initiative when ADWD opens but has no hope of gaining it with the length of the Wall to defend. He's waiting on both the wildlings and the Others to attack him. Arguments that Jon ought to have taken the time to convince his men of his reforms before implementing them invariably fall a little flat with me because 1) the assumption that Bowen Marsh and his ilk can be swayed to Jon's views given any amount of cajoling seems doubtful to me and 2) Jon has no control over or even any idea of when his enemies will be upon him. And, unlike Dany, his foes will not be content to camp beneath the Wall, waiting for the Night's Watch to starve as winter deepens. The wildlings are amassing for basically do-or-die attempts to head south, and the objective of the Others is Westeros, not the Wall itself.

Everyone would be in a pretty pickle if the Others show up while Jon's still trying to get the NW to agree on letting the wildlings man the Wall. And, should this happen, it'd be too late to pursue an alliance with the wildlings, anyways, as they'll be either dead in fighting the NW to cross the Wall or undead as wights bound to attack the NW on the Wall.

Now, common counterarguments to the above logic include the Wall's magical wards keeping at least the wights from passing without the assistance of the NW, Marsh's belief that the Wall is physically impenetrable once the gates are sealed, and claims that Marsh et al. cannot know that the Others are intent on invading Westeros or actively hostile at all. The first Jon doesn't know of, as it's mostly based on what Coldhands says to Sam about the spells woven into the Wall. The second is refuted right in ADWD: The NW doesn't have the numbers to ensure that every abandoned gate along the Wall stays that way or to spot determined climbers from Eastwatch to the Shadow Tower. Not to mention, those two flanks are obviously vulnerable to attackers.

As for the third, well, no general worth his salt makes plans assuming the enemy will fail to take the initiative if given the opportunity. And there's been plenty of evidence, as available to Marsh as Jon, that the Others are not kindly disposed towards the NW. From the attempted assassination of Lord Commander Mormont that ends with the acting First Ranger, Jaremy Rykker, and four others slain to the battle at the Fist of the First Men that cuts three hundred of the NW's best down to fifty to sixty survivors, with an additional ten to twenty casualties before reaching Craster's Keep. What's more, rangers have been disappearing beyond the Wall with alarming frequency since before AGOT begins, but Mormont's exploratory force finds the wildling villages in the immediate vicinity of the Wall abandoned in ACOK. Who else but the Others could be responsible for killing these men? Hell, the very fact that the Others have returned after thousands of years in enough strength to force all the wildlings to band together to fight or barter for safety behind the Wall is writing on the figurative wall that the NW is facing another Long Night.

Marsh doesn't simply come across as prejudiced and shortsighted. He comes across as an idiot. One who would risk dooming the realm in his denial of the truths before him. I mean, there's a reason why theories of Jon's would-be assassins being compelled by magic are so prevalent on these boards.

There is no comparable questioning of the motivations of Dany's enemies because, while some may be incompetent, none are so stupid as to break suspension of disbelief. Marsh apparently doesn't have the strategic sense of one of his precious turnips and is a coward who's more afraid of the wildlings and the Boltons than ICE ZOMBIES. Is it really so surprising that people can't take his criticisms of Jon seriously?

... I, uh, didn't mean to write so much. And feel kind of embarrassed about my lopsided concentration on Jon. I haven't spent nearly as much time analyzing the situation in Meereen as that of the Wall, and I no longer have a copy of ADWD to refer to. For that, I apologize. :blush:

[Lummel]

...I don't entirely agree. Though I'd consider the technical aspects of military command, the formalities and courtesies of court politics subjects to a degree separate from the fostering of character I assume generic role models are supposed to promote, personality is in fact an extremely important factor in leadership, IMO. There's not one person on my list of Jon's mentors whose lessons I think are applicable to other areas of life but not leadership. If nothing else, qualities like empathy, crucial to understanding people's motivations, and courage under fire are desirable overall as well as hallmarks of good leadership.

...

Yes this is certainly true of the mentor figures in Jon's life, but this is a point where there is a big contrast between his education (in the broadest sense) and Dany's.Dany's mentor figures don't have much to offer as leadership figures or as role models which is in stark constrast to Jon who is passed from role model to role model from all of whom he can learn something relevent about leadership in the North or of the Watch.But let's look at Dany's role models: Drogo, Viserys, Mormont - maybe Barristan. All of their leadership experience is either very limited or extremely particular, simply as humans I feel they are a limited bunch. Dany position here I think is much worse than Jon's she really has no one to look to who could be a positive example.

[Blisscraft]

A couple of thoughts before I travel off to the US southwest:

First, with regard to Dany's and Jon's position of behind walls at the very beginning of ADWD; Dany "sieged" the city of Mereen by sending her "knights" under it's walls. Her men literally went through shit to take the city. As for Jon, he is on the side of the "besieged". Dany, now within the walls of Mereen prepares for being besieged like Jon and the NW. As is often said throughout the series by different characters, the "walls are only as strong as the men who hold it." Dany's best qualities as a leader are in her abilities to use offense as opposed to defense. Like the Dothraki, she uses attack styles of warfare. To defend Mereen, she needs "good men" on the inside of the citiy's walls. She doesn't have those kind of defenders except with the Mereenese themselves. Sadly, she has yet to learn to use the Mereenese to produce a good defense. As noted above, her contempt for the Mereenese is great. She must win them to her side to defend, yet seems incapable of generating loyalty to her leadership. Her enemies are within and outside of her walls. And, she knows her enemy is within her walls.

Jon has defended to Wall twice at this point. First, from the South against the wildings he accompanied over the Wall. Second, he has defended the Wall from its battlements against the wildings' attack from the North. Jon's experiences at defense built the loyalty from many of the NW and propelled him (along with a little help from his friends) into the position as LC. As opposed to Dany, he's way ahead of the learning curve on the art of a good defense. Jon, like Dany, also knows he has enemies around him. However, his own sense of loyalty and duty don't prepare him for defending against them from within the NW.

As for the "cognitive dissonance" issue, the wildings aren't also called the "free folk" for nothing. They are free, but they are without any unifying structure. Yes, they chose who leads them, but there is little agreement on anythng else. As for the Mereenese, like the "kneelers" they have a strong system based mostly upon unherited wealth and title, but little to no individual choice with regard to their governance. This is characteristic of GRRM's writing: free vs slave; light vs dark; ice vs fire. Neither side is completely right or wrong. Both just are the way they are. The question is (and it's the problem with leading people with divergent views) how can the poles work together towards a complete, universal view?

[butterbumps!]

With great pleasure I bring you Jon 2!

Jon II

Overview

This chapter opens with Jon considering whether to sign a “paper shield” to the Iron Throne. He calls in Gilly to explain the baby swap plan. After she leaves in tears, Sam enters and they discuss the pros and cons of signing and sending the “paper shield.” Jon decides that he ought to sign it in the end. Then Jon asks him to recount everything he’s learned of the Others, specifically in terms of who they are and how to fight them. Finally, Jon tells Sam that he will be leaving for Oldtown to become a master, and that Gilly and Aemon will leave with him at first light.

The night before, Jon stayed up writing letters, poring over maps, and finalizing these plans with Maester Aemon, during which Aemon gives him the advice to “Kill the boy and let the man be born.”

We are given a summary of Jon’s daily routine: “visiting the men on watch and hearing their reports first-hand, watching Ulmer and his charges at the archery butts, talking with king’s men and queen’s men alike, walking to the ice atop the Wall to have a look at the forest.” We learn about the “wrong way rangers,” queen’s men (Horpe and Massey) riding south. Jon sees Aemon, Sam and Gilly off. Aemon tells Jon to read a passage he has marked in the Jade Compendium that we later learn is the story of Azor Ahai.

Jon meets with Giant (one of his trusted men) to spearhead occupation of Icemark, with the intention of creating a line of beacon towers along the Wall. Later, he meets with Janos Slynt to give him command of the rebuilding of Greyguard. Janos balks, and Jon lets him sleep on it. After Janos refuses the order the following day, Jon sends Edd to fetch him a block. After, Stannis nods in approval.

Observations

• Jon keeps repeating Aemon’s lesson to “kill the boy” throughout all of the decisions he makes, and in the way he phrases orders.
  
• The issue of the paper shield: The letter in question is intended to be both an explanation of the NW’s interactions with Stannis, as well as a request for more help. Jon’s reason for not wanting to sign is that he wants vengeance on House Lannister, and believes that Stannis may be able to win the war. Though he finds it personally distasteful, he signs.
  
• The pointed questions Jon asks of Sam about the Others is interesting. After Sam explains everything he knows, Jon asks “Did you find who the Others are, where they come from, what they want?”
  
• In shaping his Wall-occupation policy, Jon thinks back on a failed Lord Commander, and resolves himself to not being known as “Sleepy Jon Snow.”
  

Analysis

I find Jon’s inner monologue throughout this chapter extremely promising in terms of his understanding the requirements of ruling. We’ve been talking about mentorship for both Dany and Jon, and Aemon’s advice is the critical pivot on which Jon starts thinking like a leader. We see his thoughts toward Gilly and Sam, knowing his decisions stem from compassion, but that he weighs the greater good against personal investment, and is thus perceived as cold and rigid.

Part of this “killing the boy” is Jon’s reluctant acceptance to forgo vengeance. He ultimately signs a “paper shield” to attempt cordial relations with the Lannisters, and gives Janos fair warning despite burning with rage (rage for Janos' role in Ned's death, as well as Janos' having tried to execute Jon as an oath breaker in SoS).

Additionally, he takes first-hand responsibility in overseeing the daily business of the Watch, and ensures that he speaks with everyone stationed at the Wall. He draws on the advice of those with more experienced than him, and considers historical precedent when determining a defensive course of action. When in doubt, he consults books directly, or men of learning. I get the sense that he’s motivated by full information and weighing scenarios, and he’s resourceful about finding out what he needs to know. For example, after Janos refuses him for the final time, he thinks through how two scenarios will play out then decides on execution.

One parallel that stuck me in this chapter is the similar role Sam has played for Jon that Missendei fills for Dany. Both are precociously intelligent, extremely peaceful and compassionate people. They give their respected leaders sage advice, and act as empathetic consciences when debating tough decisions.

Lastly, I think the final words of the chapter point to something significant: “Jon glanced back at Stannis. For an instant their eyes met. Then the king nodded and went back inside his tower.” I get the sense that these two share a mutual respect, and are both learning to lead from each other.

__________________________

I believe Lummel’s up next with Dany 2.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

^ Great analysis, Butterbumps. One thing I really respected about Jon in hat chapter is that he makes his decisions about giving command to men at the various outposts based on their merit and trustworthiness. Giant, if I remember correctly, is surprised to be given a command because he's low-born and a nobody, really. But Jon sees his potential. Same with Sam — he tells Sam that he can no longer call himself a coward and won't tolerate it anymore.

I also agree that Jon is weighing precedents and the experiences of men with more knowledge than himself, considering other options (like sending Janos tied to his horse, or throwing him in the cells), and is generally open to sound advice (people give him grief for not taking a lot of advice, but the advice he refuses is crap). I also admired how hands-on he was, talking to people at their posts and personally going down to the cellars to get a good idea of how much food the Watch had. You can tell he's invested in his role and takes it seriously, and genuinely wants to do a good job and protect as many people as possible.

[Winter's Knight]

Some observations:

• Jon's isolation and depression seems to be getting worse. There's a dazed lack of feeling to the narration, especially while he's talking to Gilly and Sam. He's overwhelmed by the task set for him and no wonder.
  
• What is "the mark of the beast" Slynt keeps referring to?
  
• Unfortunate forshadowings: Ghost is more alive than I am
  
• Unfortunate running theme: Jon's last memory of Robb is when they said goodbye at WF, with snowflakes melting in Robb's hair. Jon makes the same observation about Sam when he says goodbye.
  

[LordBloodraven]

Jon seems to be devoted to his duty as Lord Commander. At the end of ASOS, after the Red Wedding and the sack of Winterfell, he didn't seem to care about JS being LC or his life. Being promoted to this post, he embraces the burden and is determined to man the Wall and be the first line against the WW. He really is willing to kill the boy.

I didn't have the impression that he didn't want to sign the paper shield. More that he knew Stannis coming at the Wall wouldn't appear as right for the Lannisters. They would believe that the Watch is helping Stannis and betraying their vows; the paper shield wouldn't change it but it is still better than sending nothing.

This chapter was interesting too because Jon made his first important act as LC. Slynt, Thorne, Marsh, Farring, they all viewed him as a green boy, the bastard of Winterfell. He sees himself as LC and pushed Slynt into that corner: bend the knee or lose your head. Slynt lost his head but all the senior officers accepted his commands and wouldn't openly defy him anymore. Stannis seems to appreciate this stance.

@Winter's Knight: I think mark of the beast means being a warg but not sure.

[Lummel]

Some observations:

• What is "the mark of the beast" Slynt keeps referring to?
  

That he's a warg, but it also reminds me of the mark of the beast from the book of Revelations (a nice contrast with the idea of Jon as Saviour that we get from his story ending in Jon XIII)

[Yeade]

Lummel, I don't disagree with your assessment that Dany's mentor figures are lacking as role models in leadership and character both compared to Jon's. That Dany's education in this regard, theoretically (book learning) and practically (learning by experience), isn't a match for Jon's is in fact one major reason why I think it's perfectly understandable that Dany appears to have a harder time ruling Meereen than Jon does commanding the Wall in ADWD.

To be sure, Jon probably doesn't have as long as Dany to get his act together because the Others are already on his doorstep and almost certain to reach the North proper by the end of TWOW, narratively speaking, while Dany can basically afford to make a mess of Essos before facing her true proving ground in Westeros, likely in ADOS. I expect Dany to receive at least two better advisers by that point in Tyrion and Marwyn. Barristan may finally provide useful insights on Aerys's reign, as well, with Moqorro and possibly Quaithe contributing magical knowledge.

At any rate, my original objection's to what I read as an attempt to draw a distinction between leadership mentors and other role models in your previous post. The lessons in leadership Dany can learn from the examples of Viserys, Drogo, and Jorah are very limited precisely because these men are not the best character role models, IMO. And this is aside from whatever information they can give Dany about, say, the geography, culture, and political history of Westeros. A significant amount of which is clearly biased due to, again, her mentors' character flaws.

My argument's that, in fostering character, a mentor is teaching leadership regardless of whether he or she is imparting any technical knowledge. So, Dany would've been better served by one man with the mettle and perception of Qhorin Halfhand, even if he doesn't have specific counsel to give her about the Meereenese.

Jon badly needs officers of higher quality and a PR manager, lol, but it seems to me he doesn't actually need anyone's help to set policy. Especially as it pertains to military affairs, in which he apparently shares Ned and Robb's proven acumen, or the politics of the northern houses and wildlings. That Jon holds to his own opinions over the objections of Bowen Marsh and company may be considered arrogant but, IMO, it's justified arrogance if Jon's right. Besides, Jon's never been slow to admit he's wrong since Tyrion and Donal Noye deliver him much deserved knocks on the head in AGOT. Not to mention, he's completely internalized Ygritte's warning about the dangers of assuming you know everything.

Blisscraft, one point I'd like to make about Jon taking part in the two defenses of the Wall in ASOS, commanding most of the second, is that his experience here tells him the Night's Watch alone is incapable of holding the Wall under a serious and protracted attack from either side, north or south. As Castle Black has no fortifications facing south, Donal Noye has to sacrifice important infrastructure, the stairs up the Wall, to defeat the Thenns. Towards the end of Mance Rayder's siege of the Wall, Jon's forces are not only dead exhausted but running low on crucial supplies like oil and pitch, even arrows because there's nobody Jon can spare to make more. The wildlings would've surely won that engagement had Stannis not arrived with his army.

The obvious conclusion is that the even more diminished Night's Watch of ADWD will not be able to hold the defenses against either the remaining wildlings or the Others. Marsh, however, acts as if the former can be beaten off by the Wall itself, no men required, and the latter won't bother to trouble the NW, at one point in Jon III suggesting the patently ridiculous idea that the wildlings would be content to ally with the NW against the Others while remaining beyond the Wall in their villages. In direct contradiction to the fact that he himself loses a hundred brothers fighting the Weeper around the Shadow Tower, where the Weeper is again gathering the wildlings in force, and the hostile actions already taken by the Others against the NW that I reviewed in my last post. (Plus an additional casualty, even, as the wights in AGOT kill a guard posted outside Jon's quarters I forgot to count.)

...am I mistaken in all this? I'm having increasing difficulty believing such stupidity as Marsh's is plausible, and I didn't exactly think much of the man before, lol. Similarly, I'm not sure it's just Jon's sense of honor, loyalty, and duty that blinds him to Marsh's murderous intentions because who would seriously expect overly cautious and traditional Marsh to make a kamikaze assassination run on his Lord Commander in broad daylight and the open courtyard of Castle Black before black brothers, wildlings, queensmen, and northmen alike? Even the Senators who knife Caesar don't do the deed before the commons. I really don't want to resort to theories about why GRRM's writing is not up to par...

[Winterfellian]

One of my favorite Jon moments in AGOT was when he convinced Maester Aemon with a speech about how a land needs all sorts of people and the wall needs all of his men just like a Maester's chain.

I was glad of seeing him appying this same principle as Lord Commander by recognizing the strenghts and skills of his brothers and later assign them tasks according to this, leaving prejudices aside. Whether it is by seeing a craven's potential to become a maester or the leadership qualifications of a lowborn brother. He's even willing to acknowledge the potential in men like Janos Slynt. This show not only a willingness to use all the resources available to him but a true compromise to do the best he can.

In contrast to Dany we see Jon's understanding of his command. While we see Danny struggling with a culture she doesn't understand in a starnger place The Wall, Castle Black, etc are not strangers to Jon. He's better able to recognize and address problems because of this.

[butterbumps!]

I didn't have the impression that he didn't want to sign the paper shield. More that he knew Stannis coming at the Wall wouldn't appear as right for the Lannisters. They would believe that the Watch is helping Stannis and betraying their vows; the paper shield wouldn't change it but it is still better than sending nothing.

I think Jon is very reluctant to send the letter, not because he thinks the letter will be harmful to the Watch or the Realm, but out of his own self-respect. When Jon and Sam talk through the pros and cons of sending the letter, Jon lets a bit of his Stark pride and honor show through. His objections are essentially that he hates the thought of plump little Tommen sitting the throne while his brothers are dead: "It's death and destruction I want to bring down upon House Lannister, not scorn."

Even though he takes his vows seriously, I think Jon is starting to believe that Stannis might bring the Lannisters to justice for their crimes against his family. Sending the letter would be hedging his bets, and I think Jon has now decided to side with Stannis in this, and hedging is a kind of dishonesty. So I think for Jon, not sending the a letter to maintain cordiality with the Throne is a small act of rebellion against the Lannisters, a way to maintain his own honor, and a gesture of support for Stannis, even if he doesn't articulate it quite that way. And he was definitely hoping that Sam would agree with him: "Him and Aemon both. Somehow he hoped Sam Tarly might see it differently. It is only ink and parchment."

I really love this exchange in terms of Jon's arc, because he's rejecting the "Stark honor" that typically gets Starks killed in favor of grudgingly going through the motions of politicking (floppy ears?) It's not a dishonorable act exactly-- perhaps dishonorable to his "family" or what's "right" in an objective sense, but honorable as a means of protecting the men under his command, and honorable in terms of transcending his emotional attachment for a greater good.

[Lummel]

... my original objection's to what I read as an attempt to draw a distinction between leadership mentors and other role models in your previous post. The lessons in leadership Dany can learn from the examples of Viserys, Drogo, and Jorah are very limited precisely because these men are not the best character role models, IMO. And this is aside from whatever information they can give Dany about, say, the geography, culture, and political history of Westeros. A significant amount of which is clearly biased due to, again, her mentors' character flaws.

My argument's that, in fostering character, a mentor is teaching leadership regardless of whether he or she is imparting any technical knowledge. So, Dany would've been better served by one man with the mettle and perception of Qhorin Halfhand, even if he doesn't have specific counsel to give her about the Meereenese.

...am I mistaken in all this? I'm having increasing difficulty believing such stupidity as Marsh's is plausible, and I didn't exactly think much of the man before, lol. Similarly, I'm not sure it's just Jon's sense of honor, loyalty, and duty that blinds him to Marsh's murderous intentions because who would seriously expect overly cautious and traditional Marsh to make a kamikaze assassination run on his Lord Commander in broad daylight and the open courtyard of Castle Black before black brothers, wildlings, queensmen, and northmen alike? Even the Senators who knife Caesar don't do the deed before the commons. I really don't want to resort to theories about why GRRM's writing is not up to par...

Well we are in disagreement over the business of role models, to keep things in series for a bit, Tywin would be a good leadership role model but isn't a good character, Septon Meribald is an admirable role model from the point of view of character but what you'd learn would not be relevant to becoming a good leader. What's noticeable is that Jon's role models are good in both ways, while Dany's available role models aren't, arguably in the case of Mormont (sells his own people into slavery) and Viserys (people wouldn't follow him into a pub) are poor role models are people and leaders.

With Bowen Marsh I think you have a case of Jon blindness :)

As has been pointed out above in this thread by some smart people (ETA namely ARYa_Nym, Butterbumps! and Lyanna Stark on page 3) we are biased towards the wildlings and overlook the negative side because we've experienced them from Jon's POV. We slept cuddled up to Ygritte, we laughed with Tormund, we've listened to Mance. Bowen and the Northern Chiefs who come to the Wall haven't, they know the Wildlings as their enemy, they are thinking of the Weeper and of the Lord o'Bones or Harma Dogshead or Varamyr Sixskins. Vicious people and cruel, untrustworthy and savage with their own code of values that runs counter to that of settled people...But I'm sure this is something that we will return to as we get further along.

[Budj]

Some observations:

• Unfortunate running theme: Jon's last memory of Robb is when they said goodbye at WF, with snowflakes melting in Robb's hair. Jon makes the same observation about Sam when he says goodbye.
  

Could that just be a metaphor for Jon thinking of Sam like more than just a NW "brother"?

[Yeade]

Well, we are in disagreement over the business of role models. To keep things in series for a bit, Tywin would be a good leadership role model but isn't a good character; Septon Meribald is an admirable role model from the point of view of character but what you'd learn would not be relevant to becoming a good leader.

Yeah, we may have to agree to disagree here. To counter your points, however, Tywin's character defects, his values and demeanor, have arguably twisted all three of his children to the probable ruination of his house after his death, itself perpetrated by his hated and estranged son. There's been some excellent discussion about how Tywin's legacy or, one could say, the long term fruits of his leadership are rotten in no small part due to his own behavior and the example he sets, especially in comparison to how so many of the northern houses remain loyal to the Starks despite the fortunes of that family having apparently struck rock bottom. And I'm of the opinion that Meribald's perspective on war and its cost would be very valuable to any leader who may have to fight a war or two. This is aside from what can be learned in his humbleness, extensive travels across Westeros, and skill at telling instructive stories, lol. Good leaders must be students of human nature, IMO, and Meribald strikes me as a canny one.

But the two of us digress! Returning to Bowen Marsh, my current understanding of his characterization is that he's driven by his terror of pretty much everything he's had the least bit of personal experience of--the wildlings, the authority of the Iron Throne, the Others as a distant third--and would like nothing more than to bury his head in the snow, pretending all will be well with no action and, most importantly, no risk taken on his part.

I can sympathize with Marsh's mistrust of the wildlings, but I have difficulty following the line of thinking wherein death by ice zombie apocalypse is preferable to allying with the wildlings for a season. Actually, given the events of ASOS, there's plenty of reason to suspect many of the black brothers won't survive another couple wildling assaults on the Wall as they desperately attempt to head south. Except, I suppose, in Marsh's view, that's not his problem because Denys Mallister's the commander at the Shadow Tower, where the next such attack is likely to hit, and wildling raiders who circumvent the Wall as they've been doing for generations are the business of the northern lords? Besides, casualties mean fewer mouths to feed...?

Well, that's admittedly an extreme interpretation of Marsh's character that I don't entirely believe. I'm more inclined to think, not being a particularly competent military mind to begin with, he's simply willing to accept all manner of wrongheaded strategic notions for the sake of clinging to his delusion that he and the rest of the NW can afford to sit on their collective hands, carefully rationing the turnips he's hoarded, for the duration of the winter. Jon is absolutely correct in rejecting this view, IMO.

Regarding Jon, if it's not too much trouble for the re-readers, I'm hoping this project can confirm or refute an impression I got on my own review of Jon's chapters. Specifically, that Jon's already weighed the pros and cons of his various decisions off the page. I first noticed this because Jon's nearly unassailable logic that every wildling left to die beyond the Wall is another wight the NW will have to put down later sort of feels like it comes out of nowhere yet doesn't strike me as a sudden realization either. When does Jon consider this factor? As he spends most of his time apparently mulling over the humanitarian aspects of his wildling resettlement initiative.

His decision to release Val beyond the Wall in search of Tormund and his presumed arrangement of Alys Karstark's marriage to the Magnar of Thenn are likewise made between chapters. Also, when does he settle on the terms he plans to offer Tormund? When does he even resolve to ally with the wildlings in the first place? Is it before his meeting with Stannis wherein Jon advises him to ditch the wildlings in the NW's care and win the northern clansmen to his cause? Furthermore, when Jon makes his appeal to the wildlings in Mole's Town, is he already planning to bring Tormund, at least, across the Wall? So, Mole's Town is a kind of trial run to see how the wildlings respond to the conditions Jon wants to set?

ETA: Are there references to Jon staying up nights to...? I dunno. Has he personally assumed Sam's task of searching Castle Black's library for clues as to the Others? For lack of men who can read? Would it be profitable to compare Jon and Dany's sleep patterns? :laugh:

It occurs to me that Jon and Dany in ADWD are the closest GRRM's ever come to giving us readers a king and queen's perspectives along with Tyrion as Hand in ACOK and Cersei as Queen Regent in AFFC. There's a good meta reason for why the POVs of the contenders in the War of the Five Kings are withheld--basically, for drama and suspense, lol. This need still exists even though Jon and Dany, major POV characters, have become the primary decision makers, so I wonder whether GRRM purposely chooses to obscure some of their thought processes and, if so, by what methods, with what effects on analyses of their ADWD chapters.

Dany, for instance, becomes somewhat removed from events in Meereen after her marriage to Hizdahr, IIRC. A sign of her likely depression, yes. And GRRM pulling a veil over the eyes of his readers? Jon doesn't cooperate by falling into inactivity, but there are noticeably chunks missing from, for one, his last chapter. People are confused by, among other things, Jon's two-hour council with Tormund (who else?) and how his reading of the Pink Letter in the Shieldhall doesn't result in the wildlings asking questions about how Mance Rayder's still alive like Tormund earlier. Does he say that part at all? No one can tell.

Anyways, I think this is another point that can be considered during the re-read. ^_^

[butterbumps!]

But the two of us digress! Returning to Bowen Marsh, my current understanding of his characterization is that he's driven by his terror of pretty much everything he's had the least bit of personal experience of--the wildlings, the authority of the Iron Throne, the Others as a distant third--and would like nothing more than to bury his head in the snow, pretending all will be well with no action and, most importantly, no risk taken on his part.

I can sympathize with Marsh's mistrust of the wildlings, but I have difficulty following the line of thinking wherein death by ice zombie apocalypse is preferable to allying with the wildlings for a season. Actually, given the events of ASOS, there's plenty of reason to suspect many of the black brothers won't survive another couple wildling assaults on the Wall as they desperately attempt to head south. Except, I suppose, in Marsh's view, that's not his problem because Denys Mallister's the commander at Shadow Tower, where the next such attack is likely to hit, and wildling raiders who circumvent the Wall as they've been doing for generations are the business of the northern lords? Besides, casualties mean fewer mouths to feed...?

Well, that's admittedly an extreme interpretation of Marsh's character that I don't entirely believe. I'm more inclined to think, not being a particularly competent military mind to begin with, he's simply willing to accept all manner of wrongheaded strategic notions for the sake of clinging to his delusion that he and the rest of the NW can afford to sit on their collective hands, carefully rationing the turnips he's hoarded, for the duration of the winter. Jon is absolutely correct in rejecting this view, IMO.

So, I can maybe explain some of this, since I think I brought up the cognitive dissonance issue initially. I'm actually with you regarding what I understand to be your belief that the Others and apocalypse are coming, and it's time to revise and improvise NW traditions. Bowen and Co. appear idiotic and narrow-minded to us by refusing to see the logic behind letting the Wildlings through, not taking the Others seriously, for interpreting "protecting the realm" too Draconianly. So here's where the "cognitive dissonance" comes in. The members of the NW were not treated to a lot of the info that the readers have about how grievous this threat may be. Those who oppose Jon are those who were not part of the ranging, those who hadn't experienced the WW attacking, and I suspect that most believe that this supernatural threat is no more real than grumkins at this point. Saying "the end is coming and to prepare, we must go against years of tradition and ally with our recent enemy (Wildlings)" is kind of like someone preaching that the 4 horsemen are coming tomorrow, and to fight it, we're going to align with our mortal enemies.

I think that the presence of non-believers is important for the story. Truly, for the last 8,000 some odd years the NW has been engaged in non-magical activity, and exclusively focused on Wildling containment. Yes, there have been dragons as recently as 200 years ago, but this whole "Long Night" is really nothing more than a myth. It would seem unrealistic for everyone to suddenly believe in this legendary apocalypse as imminent. I think Bowen thinks Jon is deluded and possibly crazy, and thinks that Jon is going to drain resources for something as realistic as boogeymen. I think that Bowen's position is quite realistic for anyone who hasn't interacted with the wights and WW more extensively, and it might strongly foreshadow how the rest of Westeros will treat this threat (that is, not take it seriously until it is too late). So I think my point is, we side with the Wildlings and Jon, and by extension, believe Bowen and Co. to be useless, but I think this friction is important for realism. As part of narrative engagement, I think this makes us implicitly look more favorably on and closer to Jon and grow frustrated with his opposition.

Regarding Jon, if it's not too much trouble for the re-readers, I'm hoping this project can confirm or refute an impression I got on my own review of Jon's chapters. Specifically, that Jon's already weighed the pros and cons of his various decisions off the page. I first noticed this because Jon's nearly unassailable logic that every wildling left to die beyond the Wall is another wight the NW will have to put down later sort of feels like it comes out of nowhere yet doesn't strike me as a sudden realization either. When does Jon consider this factor? As he spends most of his time apparently mulling over the humanitarian aspects of his wildling resettlement initiative.

Some things do happen off page, like the conversation with Maester Aemon in this past chapter. I'll try to account for decisions that are clearly referenced as having been made off page, but I don't want to fall into a trap of too much speculation in my main entry posts. But elsewhere anyone's more than welcome!

[Lummel]

...ETA: Are there references to Jon staying up nights to...? I dunno. Has he personally assumed Sam's task of searching Castle Black's library for clues as to the Others? For lack of men who can read? Would it be profitable to compare Jon and Dany's sleep patterns? :laugh:...

You laugh Ser, but I have already scribbled that down as something to mention about Dany II :)

Being an eight hours a night kind of man I have an eye out for disturbed sleep patterns and some sympathy for what that can do to you! More seriously I do think that is something important, in part to build up the sense of stress and strain, either that they don't allow themselves enough time to rest and recuperate or their sleep is interrupted by "events, dear boy, events". But also for re-readers, you realise that they are under rested and not at their best when forced to make decisions.

ETA something else on the cognitive dissonance...

As readers we've read the prologues to AGOT and ASOS, seen with Sam the assault on the fist of the first men but very few Brothers returned from Mormont's ranging - so very few have seen them and very few have any sense of how unstoppable they were. The wights and white walkers will seem like less of a threat to most watchmen than the wildlings who they all know about and who many of them have been recently been fighting.

[Lyanna Stark]

Some quick observations on this Jon Snow chapter, which happens to be one of my favourite Jon Snow chapters since it has a bit of a unique structure and it really shows how far Jon has come and how much he has grown.

Regarding the overall structure, maybe this is just me imagining things, but lately I have been looking more for stuff like themes, the atmosphere a certain chapter sets or other clues. This Jon chapter somehow struck me as having the structure of an old fairy tale with its classic "three challenges" build up. It also has a distinct beginning with Jon thinking of Maester Aemon's words "Kill the boy and let the man be born" and it ends in the crescendo of Janos Slynt's beheading, wherein Jon has overcome his three challenges consisting of writing his "paper shield", sending Sam and Gilly away (incl the baby swap) and finally taking a hard line with Janos Slynt. Maester Ameon said "kill the boy and let the man be born" and by the end of the chapter, with Janos Slynt's beheading, Ned Stark style, it really feels as if Jon has done exactly that. Jon Snow may not agree himself, but to me, as a reader, it really felt like he did.

Others have also remarked that Jon acts as a very competent ruler here, and I think he does. He shows attention to detail, yet he still knows which of his men to trust, shown in that he bestows command on Giant despite him being a commoner. He makes long term and short term plans and he compromises.

The downside to all of this is that with killing the boy and letting the man be born, Jon Snow is making himself cold. He's also killing his feelings. Just like love is the death of honour and duty, distancing yourself from everything you love (like Jon does in this chapter by sending Sam away, arguably his only real friends) and everyone you can rely on (Jon distancing himself more from the Nights Watch men as well) means that life gets almost meaningless. Sure, he does his duty, to Maester Aemon, the realm, the Nights Watch, the Wildlings, Mance...but at what cost to himself? I agree with previous posters who have mentioned that Jon seems depressed. I'd add that he doesn't only seem depressed, he seems constantly worried and and under stress, too. Exemplified in that he seems almost emotionally numb and in his poor sleeping patterns. Love is the death of duty and honour, and honour/duty is the death of love, or at least emotional stability?

As a possibly totally unrelated note, did anyone else feel that Jon beheading Slynt felt a bit like Jon actually relished getting an external outlet for all his frustrations? I got that feeling when reading his advice to Slynt at the end about not squirming etc. that Jon might not have been happy, exactly, but it definitely seemed like an almost cathartic outlet.

Could that just be a metaphor for Jon thinking of Sam like more than just a NW "brother"?

Absolutely. I think it's clear that Jon thinks of Sam as his friend. Perhaps the first and only friend he's had since Robb and his siblings. Sure, Jon gets along just fine with Iron Emmett, Edd Tollett, Tormund, Val etc. but that has a different flavour I think than his relationship with Sam, evidenced I think in that he sees Sam in the same light as Robb, with how he reflects on the snow melting in Sam's hair also having happened the last time he saw Robb, i.e. he feels the same type of attachment to Sam as he did to Robb. Which also makes it more evident that he's almost in the literal sense doing violence upon his friendship when he's sending Sam away. He's almost stripping away his humanity, piece by piece. Perhaps a future UnJon won't be much different from the person he was, even. The prophecy bit about Jon going cold as ice obviously has a more literal meaning, but it could also reflect that Jon is, throughout ADWD, making himself colder and colder, until there is no warmth left in him.

[Winterfellian]

As a possibly totally unrelated note, did anyone else feel that Jon beheading Slynt felt a bit like Jon actually relished getting an external outlet for all his frustrations? I got that feeling when reading his advice to Slynt at the end about not squirming etc. that Jon might not have been happy, exactly, but it definitely seemed like an almost cathartic outlet.

I actually think this too! Slynt's beheading wasn't a premeditated act (we see Jon had considered different options) but I think deep down he was hoping Janos Slynt might prove troublesome just like he hoped that Allyster Thorne gave him cause to get LongClaw out of it's scabbard.

[Lummel]

...As a possibly totally unrelated note, did anyone else feel that Jon beheading Slynt felt a bit like Jon actually relished getting an external outlet for all his frustrations? I got that feeling when reading his advice to Slynt at the end about not squirming etc. that Jon might not have been happy, exactly, but it definitely seemed like an almost cathartic outlet...

Yes I had that feeling too. It's a release. Also it alignes him very neatly with The Ned and the First Men. I wonder if that was alienating for the southerners in the watch. Bit of a parallel with Stannis, who as Butterbumps! pointed out nods and has that moment of contact with Jon, taking off Davos' fingers personally. Somehow I don't think that Slynt appreciated the compliment though.