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Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)


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@ Quentyn

Could you write down a list of unspeculative facts that support your position that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, and/ or that Illyrio is actually pro Targ?

Also, why do you believe that the factor of Dothraki were supposed to be a fighting force for anyone that Illyrio/ Varys sought to put on the throne? The way Varys works is to create chaos and distrust amongst competing factions in order to deplete the strength of his opposition. Doesn't it follow that the Dothraki invasion plan would have riled up more chaos for the sake of offering their heroic leader to fill the vacuum of power and rise triumphantly as the savior of Westeros? They're obviously creating a power vacuum that they want Aegon to fill, and nothing would give Aegon more loyalty and unity than the threat of a foreign, destructive invasion. The Dothraki were never meant to be on Aegon's side- they were supposed to be strawmen that could be brought down.

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@ Quentyn

Could you write down a list of unspeculative facts that support your position that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, and/ or that Illyrio is actually pro Targ?

Also, why do you believe that the factor of Dothraki were supposed to be a fighting force for anyone that Illyrio/ Varys sought to put on the throne? The way Varys works is to create chaos and distrust amongst competing factions in order to deplete the strength of his opposition. Doesn't it follow that the Dothraki invasion plan would have riled up more chaos for the sake of offering their heroic leader to fill the vacuum of power and rise triumphantly as the savior of Westeros? Their obviously creating a power vacuum that they want Aegon to fill, and nothing would give Aegon more loyalty and unity than the threat of a foreign, destructive invasion. The Dothraki were never meant to be on Aegon's side- they were supposed to be strawmen that could be brought down.

Unspeculative facts:

1. NONE becuase we are all speculating on what the exact meaning of GRRM's clues mean. Theres no way to not speculate when dealing with theories to how a fictional story will end.

2. See post #212

And you make a good point, a dothraki horde would totally piss off Westeros. Who knows. I'll speculate that either its to have Viserys invade with them only to have his nephew take him down and be a hero, or maybe they dont give a fuck and as long as Aegon takes the throne who cares who likes him. Whatever. Its a fact that they wanted the Dothraki to invade at some point. Trying to read Vary's mind is like trying to read GRRM's mind. Which makes sense, I guess.

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@ Quentyn

Could you write down a list of unspeculative facts that support your position that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, and/ or that Illyrio is actually pro Targ?

I think the only thing you are going to get is that Aegon is Targaryen, son of Rhaegar because any opposition to his theory is that it's ridiculous to suggest that Ilyrio and Varys must have a reason for being Targ loyalists, the warnings and prophecies mean nothing, Varys and Ilyrio's lies mean nothing because everything else they say is 100% true 100% of the time, and assumptions that oppose his opinion are not plausible because they are only assumptions while his assumptions are plausible...for some reason.

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I think the only thing you are going to get is that Aegon is Targaryen, son of Rhaegar because any opposition to his theory is that it's ridiculous to suggest that Ilyrio and Varys must have a reason for being Targ loyalists, the warnings and prophecies mean nothing, Varys and Ilyrio's lies mean nothing because everything else they say is 100% true 100% of the time, and assumptions that oppose his opinion are not plausible because they are only assumptions while his assumptions are plausible...for some reason.

good to see you take the time to understand how I am interpreting the text instead of clumping my arguments in with the cliched oveerused bullshit that I have never said

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good to see you take the time to understand how I am interpreting the text instead of clumping my arguments in with the cliched oveerused bullshit that I have never said

butterbumps! asks for your specific reasons why you believe Aegon is son of Rhaegar and you offered this.

This is exactly what's wrong with most of the theories defending Aegon's fakeness.

Oh wait....thats right, they are all assumptions! The Faegon follower's only concrete evidence is the ambiguous prophecies and the idea that Varys and Illyrio's actions need to make sense..and the whole GC thing which we have argued to death...what else?

The Aegon is real followers have only (possibly duped) character's thoughts and ambiguous conversations, and ambiguous prophecies and the idea that Varys would do a certain thing in a certain situation..and the whole GC thing which we have argued to death

ITS ALL ASSUMPTIONS! Otherwise it would be known for sure which side was right

We all choose to believe what we want to happen and what we feel would make the story better, and then we find evidence

I'm not ashamed, Aegon Targaryen all day all day!

There are no specific reasons in this post. This is, as you call it, overused cliche bullshit that you actually said.

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There are no specific reasons in this post.

NO SHIT! Thats what I was saying, there are no specific reasons for anything! and read post #212 before you start bitching

EDIT: haha that is post 212...but thats not the post i responded to butterbumps with..though obviously i referenced it.

Edit again: And this is all you need for specific reasons:

We all choose to believe what we want to happen and what we feel would make the story better, and then we find evidence

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NO SHIT! Thats what I was saying, there are no specific reasons for anything! and read post #212 before you start bitching

The post I quoted above is post #212. If there are no reasons for anything, then why are you arguing?

____

I obviously need to bow out of this thread. I'm starting to be quite mean.

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Yes, giving them Dragons, ships, armies, aid in various forms be it through sending them Selmy, Tyrion, or Strong Belwas, protection, etc; is evidence that they're loyal to the Targaryens.

No actually it isn't. It is evidence that they can take advantage of unexpected events. They did not give Dany dragons...they gave her eggs that they never expected to hatch. They expected her to die and lord knows what to happen to the eggs. When that didn't happen and Dany magically birthed dragons, their plans changed and low and behold support started flowing towards Dany in the form of ships, Selmy, Tyrion and Strong Belwas. And they never sent an army to Dany - the GC was going to go with Aegon, it was never meant to be Dany's army - Dany had to buy her own army.

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The post I quoted above is post #212. If there are no reasons for anything, then why are you arguing?

____

I obviously need to bow out of this thread. I'm starting to be quite mean.

Yeah....arguing is fun! :fencing:

And I can't wait to read tWoW and find out the truth

Hopefully I can post an "I told you so" thread and revel in my glory...

But either way there will be an "I told you so" thread so that the arguments are justified

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Here is what makes no sense if Aegon is a fake.

He obviously believes himself to be Aegon. Therefore what would be the plan if he does take the throne?

Then he'll officially be Aegon VI, son of Rhaegar. And he'll live and die believing it. Varys made considerable efforts to create this illusion, why on Earth would he choose to destroy it?

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NO SHIT! Thats what I was saying, there are no specific reasons for anything! and read post #212 before you start bitching

EDIT: haha that is post 212...but thats not the post i responded to butterbumps with..though obviously i referenced it.

Edit again: And this is all you need for specific reasons:

NO SHIT! Thats what I was saying, there are no specific reasons for anything! and read post #212 before you start bitching

EDIT: haha that is post 212...but thats not the post i responded to butterbumps with..though obviously i referenced it.

Edit again: And this is all you need for specific reasons:

I'm really baffled by this line of thinking. The Aegon debate has so much mileage in large part because there are so many specific facts put forth by people who believe he is fake/a Blackfyre that can be discussed. There is:

-Prophecy (mummer's dragon from Quaithe, cloth dragon from HotU)

-Foreshadowing (rusted sign washing up turned from black to red)

-The logistics of the baby swap/the logic of baby swapping as a useful tactic

-Varys and Illyrio's uneven support for Dany/Viserys vs Aegon

-The history of the Golden Company and its support of the Blackfyres

No, no single piece of evidence is a smoking gun. But there are a great many very specific facts which can be offered up for discussion. Taken together, I see an extremely compelling case. If you don't see a compelling case, I'd think you could at least acknowledge the existence of the tons of specific reasons that people disagree with you.

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@atpthornton, and Tyrion is a very telling support to send. When I read the 2.Tyrion chapter in Dance, I wondered why Illyrio tells him everything to enable him to come to the same conclusions most of the posters in this thread come to:

Aegon is the son of Illyrio and Serra and she is probably a Blackfyre!

Whenever Tyrion comes close to follow a really interesting question Illyrio diverts him with his hate for Cersei or his love for dragons, but I think he was sure that Tyrion will figure out the truth eventually. Why send him to Dany then, if the plan was obviously to marry her to "Aegon" and gain credibility and access to dragons. Because he is so easily discredited if necessary, a kinslayer, a kingslayer and an ugly monkey-demon. So when Tyrion tells the true story to the honourable Ser Barristan, they only need to bring up all of Tyrions crimes and it might be enough to swing his opinion to believe the lie. Only Tyrion manipulated Young Griff and ran into Jorah and is now manipulating the second sons. I guess that Varys and Illyrio didn´t expect that.

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I'm really baffled by this line of thinking. The Aegon debate has so much mileage in large part because there are so many specific facts put forth by people who believe he is fake/a Blackfyre that can be discussed. There is:

-Prophecy (mummer's dragon from Quaithe, cloth dragon from HotU)

-Foreshadowing (rusted sign washing up turned from black to red)

-The logistics of the baby swap/the logic of baby swapping as a useful tactic

-Varys and Illyrio's uneven support for Dany/Viserys vs Aegon

-The history of the Golden Company and its support of the Blackfyres

No, no single piece of evidence is a smoking gun. But there are a great many very specific facts which can be offered up for discussion. Taken together, I see an extremely compelling case. If you don't see a compelling case, I'd think you could at least acknowledge the existence of the tons of specific reasons that people disagree with you.

Yeah, but I could just as easily use all those points you listed as reasons for Aegon being real

-The prophecy meant that Aegon is just a fool, not a fake Targ, or that Quentyn is the mummer's dragon, or a million possibilities

-Foreshadowing a rusted sign..yeah, sure. While foreshadowing is a good reason to form an opinion, its a bad reason to make it a fact Theres forshadowing that Aegon will freeze under pressure (not moving in from of stone man), that his dragon will be too far away, im sure theres more. GRRM loves his red herrings

-The logistics? Rhaegar dies, Elia is held hostage, Varys swaps the babies. Easy. The logisitics of everything in asoiaf is shaky.

-Who the fuck knows what their game is it could be anything the reader wants it to be

-There is plenty of textual evidence (posted on this thread) that shows the GC has changed their goals. Its open to interpretation

All "specific facts" are parts of a fictional story. The readers make of them what they want

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Yeah, but I could just as easily use all those points you listed as reasons for Aegon being real

-The prophecy meant that Aegon is just a fool, not a fake Targ, or that Quentyn is the mummer's dragon, or a million possibilities

-Foreshadowing a rusted sign..yeah, sure. While foreshadowing is a good reason to form an opinion, its a bad reason to make it a fact Theres forshadowing that Aegon will freeze under pressure (not moving in from of stone man), that his dragon will be too far away, im sure theres more. GRRM loves his red herrings

-The logistics? Rhaegar dies, Elia is held hostage, Varys swaps the babies. Easy. The logisitics of everything in asoiaf is shaky.

-Who the fuck knows what their game is it could be anything the reader wants it to be

-There is plenty of textual evidence (posted on this thread) that shows the GC has changed their goals. Its open to interpretation

All "specific facts" are parts of a fictional story. The readers make of them what they want

You haven't actually used all of my points to argue that Aegon is the real deal, you've fallen back on asserting people just make of them what they want or there are other possibilities for most of the points I bring up, although you do point to a textual disagreement over the current state of the GC (which is an interesting point of discussion).

I guess what really bothers me about your line of reasoning is that you can negate basically any textually-based assertion anyone makes about the books on any subject by saying alternatives are possible and people believe what you want- it's stultifying. I find it extremely compelling that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna and a legitimate Targaryen heir, based on the textual fact that the Kingsguard stayed behind at the Tower of Joy to guard him and his mother. Now, you could say there are other alternatives possible and insist that I'm just making what I want of that fact. Of course there are other alternatives, but I'm looking at the available evidence and seeing a very strong case. It's just not useful to insist that the available evidence is meaningless due to the possibility of alternatives.

It's the same for Aegon. I'm looking at the available evidence and coming to a conclusion. You're saying the available evidence is meaningless and we can't form meaningful opinions about it. If you want to say the evidence is meaningless, you've got nothing left to contribute- and you can't really have a meaningful position in the debate. To debate you have to accept that facts exist and can be meaningfully discussed.

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I'll add the only FACTS:

There is a young boy of the right age named Aegon

JC believes him to be real

JC has the zombie flu

The zombie flu is contaigious

The dead baby was unrecognizable

The Blackfyres wanted the throne

The GC used to fight for the Blackfyres

No one publicly calls themselves a Blackfyre

Varys is mysterious

Illyrio loves Aegon (We all agree, an assumption that is obvious)

Septon Lemore is more than she claims

Lemore is hiding some serious details cruicial to Aegons legitimacy/blackfyreness

Illyrio claims to have had a wife

Elia and Rhaenys are dead

R+ L = J (cause come on, this one has had serious "specific facts" from day 1)

Aegon is at war for the Iron Throne

Varys killed Kevin to make Aegons job easier

Dany has dragons that she cant really control

This is asoiaf and nothing is certain

You haven't actually used all of my points to argue that Aegon is the real deal, you've fallen back on asserting people just make of them what they want or there are other possibilities for most of the points I bring up, although you do point to a textual disagreement over the current state of the GC (which is an interesting point of discussion).

I guess what really bothers me about your line of reasoning is that you can negate basically any assertion anyone makes about the books on any subject by saying alternatives are possible and people believe what you want- it's stultifying. I find it extremely compelling that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna and a legitimate Targaryen heir, based on the textual fact that the Kingsguard stayed behind at the Tower of Joy to guard him and his mother. Now, you could say there are other alternatives possible and insist that I'm just making what I want of that fact. Of course there are other alternatives, but I'm looking at the available evidence and seeing a very strong case. It's just not useful to insist that the available evidence is meaningless due to the possibility of alternatives.

It's the same for Aegon. I'm looking at the available evidence and coming to a conclusion. You're saying the available evidence is meaningless and we can't form meaningful opinions about it. If you want to say the evidence is meaningless, you've got nothing left to contribute- and you can't really have a meaningful position in the debate. To debate you have to accept that facts exist and can be meaningfully discussed.

I agree that Jon is the legitimate son of Rhaegar. That one is sealed at the known fact that three KG were upholding their vows at ToJ

I have been debating my reasonings for the entirety of this thread. I just got tired of arguing about the same facts over and over and arguing about the same text with different interpretations. This theory is too ambiguous to have a discussion about it without it turning into a polar argument based on opinions

All the evidence I recently said was "meaningless" (its not, its just ambiguous) I used earlier to prove my thoughts. Then that same evidence was used to counterpoint my reasons, and chaos ensued. I then decided to look at it pragmatically and see how wishy washy both sides are

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What well-written original post, that's spawned 12 pages in a day! I love this topic, hahahahaha.

I think it's a mistake to take the cloth dragon as a metaphor. The House of the Undying prophecies are literal, not metaphorical. Rob actually had a direwolf head sown on his body. Rhaegar's scene was literal. To me we shouldn't assume that people carrying a cloth dragon is a metaphor for a stage prop being king.

Also, of course Illyrio is truly behind Daenerys and hoped that her Dragon's Eggs would hatch. He gave her dragon eggs... from Asshai. Magic is still practiced openly in Asshai. Asshai sent Quaithe to influence Dany, Melisandre is influencing Stannis, and Euron left Asshai to claim the Seastone Chair. There's also rumors that dragons have been seen in Asshai. Illyrio knew what kind of eggs he was giving her and that they would probably hatch.

Also I think the likelihood of Illyrio having a son, with a woman he loves, at around the exact same time that Rhaegar had a wife with his sickly Ellaria is extremely coincidental and far more presumptuous than the Master of Whisperers sneaking out a bay from the Red Keep.

I honestly believe the facts can go either way and that Martin probably set it up this way. To me, he's legitimate because Martin spent so much time in the first four novels repeating "dashed against the wall" so many times that I'm surprised he didn't insert a footnate reading "By the way, at this point you should be fully aware that his head was dashed against the wall. Keep this in mind..." That would've been such a waste to make him a fake.

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Can you answer any of these questions?

I can answer them all, as I've done multiple times. Easy to do when your arguments are supported by the text, and not your rogue own fantasies.

1.Why does Illyrio not offer any financial or educational assistance to Dany and Viserys for nearly a decade? They were Aegon's heirs, after all.

Because he didn't know where they were. They were in Bravos, safe with Ser Willem Darry. Darry died, and per Danny, were in constant motion as they "ran from the usurpers dogs". Viserys meets with Illyrio, and ever since, the latter has been written to have aided them in multiple ventures.

2. Why does Illyrio negotiate the marriage of Dany to Khal Drogo if he intended all along to marry Dany to Aegon?

Because he didn't originally plan to marry Danny to Egon as she belonged to Viserys, through tradition.(as far as Viserys knew; he was ignorant to the pact with Dorne.) Viserys gave hey away, as both the novels and show have emphasized.

Dany being married to Aegon would provide him with more legitimacy than just Jon Connington, but Dany being married to Khal Drogo denied Aegon the opportunity for this legitimacy. It's not like Illyrio could foresee Drogo dying of a nipple scratch.

Danny marrying Aegon wouldn't have gotten her nor Viserys, nor him, anything. It's the reason Doran kept his pact secret, not even allowing Viserys nor his Arienne in on his plans. Because raising prematurely and without the requisite supprt would have brought Robert Baratheon and his warhammer down upon Sunspear, as it was brought down upon Pyke. But what does Danny marrying Drogo, get her? An army of 100,000 Dothraki screamers, whom had Drogo not died, would have sailed across the narrow season two or three books past and set Westeros to flame.

3. Why does Illyrio offer no assistance to Dany until the dragons are hatched?

As far as I'm concerned, helping her establish arms is help. And prior to that, she lived safely within Illyrio's manse for a year or so.

That, to me, is help.

It's not like he could foresee the dragons hatching. If he could, wouldn't he have given them to Aegon, or made sure Aegon was the one married to the known Targaryen who could hatch the eggs?

Because his loyalties lie beyond simply Aegon, as he's said and Martin has shown since Book 1, nigh 20 years ago.

4. Why do you trust that Varys was telling the truth to Kevan when it's quite obvious that Varys laced his truth with lies?

Because as far as I know, they weren't lies. Unless you have some confirmation elsewhere, or are privy to information I am not.

He was surrounded by 'little birds'.

As he has since being brought across the Narrow Sea, and before that it was his mice. And for 20 plus years they've keep his secerts, feed him whispers, and were the mortar on which Varys legacy has been built.

I see for little cause for him to lie a dead man and children who've proven their loyalties beyond a shadow of doubt.

Keep in mind these little birds are supplied by Illyrio. Isn't it reasonable to assume that at least a few of them are loyal to Illyrio and will report back what's going on in Westeros?

Source?

ADWD. Pg 75

Illyrio: We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice.

Tyrion: In Kings Landing, we call them little birds.

Illyrio: Mice, we called the, then. The older theives were fools who thought no further that turning a night's plunder into wine. Varys preferred orphan boys and young girls. He chose the smallest, the ones who were quick and quiet, and taught them to climb walls and slip down chimneys. He taught them to read as well.

5. The most important...what do Varys and Illyrio get out of it?

Varys told you in Book 1 that his loyalties were to the realm. You chose to ignore it, probably dismissed it as the lies and manipulations of a whisperer. I did the same, originally, but he's done nothing but supprt that claim throughout the first 5 novels.

Illyrio is filthy rich, has no heirs, and is old and unhealthy. He ain't living long, any wealth received when Aegon sits the throne will be paltry compared to what he has, and he apparently has so much that he can give away dragon eggs - some of the most valuable things in existence - without a blink. Varys also has no heirs, nor will he ever be able to conceive an heir. If he's looking for riches, he probably should have spent the last couple of decades in another field. So, what do they get out of putting Aegon son of Rhaegar on the Iron Throne?

Peace, such as was promised upon the coming of the Prince Whom was Promised. You may not like their answers, nor believe them, but Varys and Illyrio have have both answered these questions and remained consistent throughout.

ADWD. pg 72

Tyrion: "Tell me", Tyrion said as he drank, "why should a magister or Pentos give three figs who wears the crown in Westeros? Where is the gain in this venture, my lord?"

Illyrio: The fat man dabbled grease from his lips. "I am an old man, grown weary of this world and its trecheries. It is si strange that I should wish to do some good before my days are done? to help a sweet young girl regain her birthright?

Tyrion: "If Daenerys is no more than a sweet young girl, the iron throne will cut her into sweet young pieces."

Illyrio: "Fear not, my little friend. The blood of Aegon the Dragon flows in her veins."

ADWD. pg 73

Tyrion: For that matter, why would you? Slavery may be forbidden by the laws of Pentos, yet you have a finger in that trade as well, maybe a whole hand. And yet you conspirefor the Dragon Queen, and not against her. Why? What do you hope to gain from Queen Daenerys?

Illyrio: "Are we back to that again? You are a persistent little man." Illyrio gave a laugh and slapped his belly. "As you will. The beggar king swore that I should be master of coin, and a lordly lord as well. Once he wore his golden crown, I should have my choice of castles, even Casterly Rock, if I desired".

.....

ADWD. pg 74

Tyrion: "Are you quite certain that Daenerys will make good on her brothers promise?"

Illyrio: "She will, or she will not." Illyrio bit the egg in half. "I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay."

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<snip>

Also I think the likelihood of Illyrio having a son, with a woman he loves, at around the exact same time that Rhaegar had a wife with his sickly Ellaria is extremely coincidental and far more presumptuous than the Master of Whisperers sneaking out a bay from the Red Keep.

<snip>

Tyrion estimates Aegon two years younger than he is should be. Another reason why Jon Connington is aproached by Varys only after 4 years.

The dwarf put his age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.
Tyrion I, Dance.
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I'll add the only FACTS:

There is a young boy of the right age named Aegon

JC believes him to be real

JC has the zombie flu

The zombie flu is contaigious

The dead baby was unrecognizable

The Blackfyres wanted the throne

The GC used to fight for the Blackfyres

No one publicly calls themselves a Blackfyre

Varys is mysterious

Illyrio loves Aegon (We all agree, an assumption that is obvious)

Septon Lemore is more than she claims

Lemore is hiding some serious details cruicial to Aegons legitimacy/blackfyreness

Illyrio claims to have had a wife

Elia and Rhaenys are dead

R+ L = J (cause come on, this one has had serious "specific facts" from day 1)

Aegon is at war for the Iron Throne

Varys killed Kevin to make Aegons job easier

Dany has dragons that she cant really control

This is asoiaf and nothing is certain

Ok I'm glad we can agree on some facts. :)

I'll add that:

-The GC was founded to keep the Blackfyre claim alive

-So devoted to this cause was Bittersteel, the GC founder, that he had his skull encased in gold and mounted on a standard to be taken into battle that he vowed would one day cross the sea to take the Iron Throne. Every one of his successors has followed suit and had their skulls encased in gold and mounted on the standard

-The GC has never broken a contract in its history until now

-The have now broken a contract

-They did so aware that they would be fighting to make Aegon King, not just making Dany Queen

-When given a choice between waiting for/going to Dany or following Aegon, they followed Aegon

-Varys informed the small council of Dany's pregnancy, sending assassins after her

-Illyrio did not help Dany or Viserys for most of their lives

-Illyrio did not inform Viserys, who he pretended to believe was the rightful King of Westeros, that he had been supporting Viserys' 'nephew'- the apparent actual heir of the Targaryen dynasty

-Elia was found clutching the baby whose head Gregor Clegane smashed in, while her daughter Rhaenys was found alone, hiding under a bed. Meaning that Elia apparently chose to stay with the fake baby rather than go to her true daughter, if Varys is to be believed

-In the House of the Undying, Dany is prophesied to be the 'slayer of lies'- she sees a cloth dragon swaying on poles, which she later refers to as a mummer's dragon

-Quaithe warns her of the 'mummer's dragon'

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