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U.S. Politics - a tale of two conventions


TerraPrime

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@Arthmail - Aren't we agreeing with each other? I figure the last bit of bat shit was the anti-colonial thing but even conservative commentors couldn't stomach that one.

Sometimes i like to pretend i disagree even as we are agreeing so people don't think that i've gone soft on the boards and given up being an asshole.

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A big % of the "not sures" are probably people who are answering that way because "I just don't want to answer that question" was not an option.

I strongly suspect that I get marked down as a "Not Sure" a lot, when I refuse to give a yes or no answer to a question that I find nuanced or poorly-worded. I can hear the survey-taker rolling their eyes and tuning me right out as not worth their $8/hour to deal with every time I do it.

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Debates will only matter if one side looks absurdly inept compared to the other - ie Reagan kickin bushs ass, or how bad Nixon looked vs Kennedy. Otherwise they'll just confirm on both sides. Remember how bad palin was against Biden yet she was given a good grade since her expectations were so low?

What will Change or not change this election is the economy. Period. If it stays at this depressing rate where it's still above 8% and tons of people are leavin the job market it's going to be bad for Obama. If it gets worse than that - which is very easily possible - Obama will almost certainly lose.

Heh. If repubs really wanted to win, easiest way would be to fire about 200k people in sept. could even call it downsizing based on bad economic conditions.

It'll be fun to see Romney shit the bed, but don't pretend it matters.

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The economy is not the same as the unemployment rate. Any model that predicts an election result using only one variable would be a poor one.

Just as an example, Nate SIlver uses 7 economic parameters in his model, which included projected GDP growth, personal income AND payroll among others (like the stock market). 6 of those except the stock market are given equal weight. You can debate the efficacy of this model, but I wouldnt assume apriori that an 8% unemployment rate come November will actually move the numbers down for Obama.

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So that guy who bear-hugged the President yesterday? Turns out Republicans are now calling for a boycott of his pizza place and have been downvoting it on Yelp and other online review sites.

Seriously?! Is there nothing too petty for these shits?

No, no there isn't.

WTF. Obama went over there to thank the guy for helping get bloody donations or something. Plus the guy was a registered republican.

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WTF. Obama went over there to thank the guy for helping get bloody donations or something. Plus the guy was a registered republican.

He doesn't hate Obama, so he must be a traitor. That's how these idiots think. It's why they've systematically removed almost every Republican that's had the audacity to work with or say anything nice about the President. He is The Enemy, The Antichrist, He Who Must Be Stopped At Any Cost.

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Cyrano, do you think anything other than unemployment and removal from the workforce matters to most people? Especially those young adults who are unemployed?

Yes, to most people. I mean, we do have 92% employment in the 'labor force'. The unemployment rate is an abstraction to most that gives a general trend about the state of the economy, which is why if their own personal income goes up, it will offset those effects somewhat.

As for young adults, sure they might have soured on Obama, but they form a fraction of the electorate that typically doesnt vote as much as other demographics.

All these effects are usually baked into any reliable model. I'm sure I couldn't come up with an appropriate model myself, and a 9% unemployment rate will be bad for Obama no doubt (maybe even terrible). But it is a little less of a reliable metric than everyone assumes.

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Thanks very much to all who posted links to critiques of D'Souza. My favorite quote from one of them is:

The partisan mind—left-wing or right-wing, Republican or Democrat—is incapable of maintaining more than one oversized object of irrational contempt at a time.

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So that guy who bear-hugged the President yesterday? Turns out Republicans are now calling for a boycott of his pizza place and have been downvoting it on Yelp and other online review sites.

I have to say that is a great picture. The Secret Service probably shit themselves.

Oh and Chuck Norris a damn fool

http://www.politico.com/multimedia/video/2012/09/chuck-norris-dire-warning-for-america.html

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It's kinda sad that anyone would have a problem with that. I would hope that any president - past or current - could be welcomed like that. I mean, what an honor in general!

I don't know if I could hug Bush2 for any reason, but I certainly would shake his hand.

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Thanks very much to all who posted links to critiques of D'Souza. My favorite quote from one of them is:

The partisan mind—left-wing or right-wing, Republican or Democrat—is incapable of maintaining more than one oversized object of irrational contempt at a time.

I think that goes for anybody, anywhere in this world no matter what political affiliation. Same crap goes on up here in Canada all the time. Just not as many partisan hacks as you guys, IMO.

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