Doran Martell, An Underestimated Force

[Foxhound]

I know this may sound crazy, but didn't Renly said something like "Dorne will join our case sooner or later"? I know Doran never did that, but did Renly send emissaries to make an aliance with Dorne? The enemity between Dorne and The Reach is well known, but if Doran was seeking revenge, wouldn't it be wise to join the king with the greatest army, wo was trying to defeat the Lannisters (Ned and Robert were dead by then, Tywin/Gregor/Lorch are the only ones left for his revenge)? He could at least pretend to join forces with Renly, like he did later when he accept the marriage of Trystane and Myrcella

Renly claims Dorne will soon join him, but they never do, and Tyrion says Renly is taking their allegiance for granted which is why he offers the marriage alliance to them. Doran accepts it, which means his only overt action during the war was helping the Lannisters! Pretending or not, he relieved the Lannisters from having to worry about him and added power to their claim, as others would see Dorne had joined them and act accordingly.

[Light a wight tonight]

Note that Doran not only kept her out of the loop but he also kept her from learning how to rule as well,making sure that she only handle state functions and the like.

Yep, in brilliance this is right up there with Robb's instructions to Edmure Tully.

[Sevumar]

Barristan seemed to know about Viserys. Either way, since Viserys didn't know about the pact, Doran could have forgotten about the whole thing and let Arianne live her life.

I didn't get the impression that Barristan knew all that much about Viserys. Selmy would've only known him as a young child, and people often change as they grow. I don't see any reason why we should have expected Doran or Barristan to have had extensive knowledge of the idiot Viserys had become in his exile.

I think the fact that both Varys/Illyrio and Doran made no open moves to approach and support Viserys during the majority of Robert's reign shows that there was a real fear of Robert's reaction. Viserys was probably not the type that could be approached directly and in secret and have that support remain a secret for long.

There's no way that Robert would've moved against the favorite toys of the man who was paying the bills in King's Landing.

[Light a wight tonight]

I will concede that keeping Dorne out of a war it couldn't win is smart, but falls short of brilliance. That's simple strategy, the hard part being keeping the Dornish from forcing a war. But his plots?

Betrothing Arianne, his heir, to Viserys? He should have known that Viserys was an evil wacko. If he didn't it shows he's less than competent. That failing he sends Quentyn, a pleasant nonentity to wed Dany on no particular basis. That was likely doomed before it started.

Sending Oberyn to King's Landing worked out really well, too.

Maybe he'll redeem himself by fighting UnGergor.

[franko99]

Renly claims Dorne will soon join him, but they never do, and Tyrion says Renly is taking their allegiance for granted which is why he offers the marriage alliance to them. Doran accepts it, which means his only overt action during the war was helping the Lannisters! Pretending or not, he relieved the Lannisters from having to worry about him and added power to their claim, as others would see Dorne had joined them and act accordingly.

So, it was something like:

-My Prince, King Renly has 100000 mens, marching to KL (and eventually CR) ready to find if Tywin Lannisters trully shits gold and is offering to join him?

-Doran: Nah, I have a better plan, lets just sit here, waiting for news from 2 childs, in the middle of nowhere with no army, money or power at all, and get our revenge, with fire and blood. In the mid time, let's help the Lannister...

The man is a genius :bowdown:

BTW, This is just a joke, no need for a serious answer :lol:

[Master of Laws]

I really hope Doran redeems himself in TWOW and finally becomes the political mastermind GRRM tries to make him out to be.

[cuendillar]

Even if he considered it completely unnecessary, shouldn't he still have taken care to train his daughter to rule? Not so much for the extra insurance, but as a giant cover-up of his actual intentions with her. It's not like Doran to risk someone getting suspicious on him for not preparing his heir-apparent to follow him on the throne. This doesn't really need to imply that he introduce her into his long-term plans beforehand, just that she is seen to learn how to run a practically autonomous kingdom.

[Sevumar]

I will concede that keeping Dorne out of a war it couldn't win is smart, but falls short of brilliance. That's simple strategy, the hard part being keeping the Dornish from forcing a war. But his plots?

I'd argue that while people might place a greater emphasis on his scheming, Doran's primary responsibility is to see to the welfare of Dorne and its people. That means that whatever he does, he should not seek to bring war to Dorne nor send Dorne's spears to battle without a compelling reason. His plotting is really for the advancement of personal and family objectives, not things that would gain very much for the majority of Dorne. He's tried to make sure that the majority of Dorne wouldn't be hurt (beyond pride) if his plans failed.

Betrothing Arianne, his heir, to Viserys? He should have known that Viserys was an evil wacko. If he didn't it shows he's less than competent. That failing he sends Quentyn, a pleasant nonentity to wed Dany on no particular basis. That was likely doomed before it started.

How was he supposed to know this? Viserys was a child in the care of Willem Darry when the marriage pact was negotiated. It wasn't really possible to know what kind of adult he'd be at that point. Why not make the pact and then see how things evolved from there? It's not as though Doran packed Arianne off to Essos to live with Viserys in exile and then ignored her pleas about being made to marry a cruel and selfish Targaryen. It's clear from Doran's attitude that he's glad Viserys's idiocy got him killed and that Arianne wouldn't have to marry him after all.

And what's wrong with sending Quentyn to suggest the fulfillment of the agreement by marrying Dany? This is the way that politics operate in the Seven Kingdoms. We've seen in the past that when the original members of a marriage pact cannot carry out their obligations, substitutions are arranged. Doran is perfectly rational to try to negotiate the fulfillment of the contract with his son and Dany.

He took care to send a well-prepared party, yet one small enough so that they would not be recognized. What happened after that was not Doran's fault. He could not be expected to know that half of Quentyn's companions, including his most experienced and knowledgeable adviser, would be killed in a clash with pirates. He could not be expected to foresee Quentyn's ruinous attempt to tame a dragon. There isn't a whole lot he could have done to avoid these things, as they were out of his control.

Maybe he'll redeem himself by fighting UnGergor.

I don't think Doran has anything to "redeem" himself from. For some reason, you're blaming him for the actions/choices of others. No, we haven't seen his plans bear fruit thus far, but he's far from alone in that and he's still in a pretty good position. He knows that there cannot be gains without risks, but he has been careful to risk only individuals and not an entire generation of Dornish nobility and soldiers. Very few schemers have particularly good track records.

[Ice Turtle]

I could be two ways:

Doran really meant to marry Viserys to Arianne, in that case he was not principally refusing the war, he was just postponing it. How did he imagine it would continue? Arianne marries Viserys and he magically defeats rest of the Westeros with 10 000 men?

Doran betrothed Arianne just in case and never really meant to follow it without Targs reclaiming the Throne by their own power. In this case he had no reason to neglect Arianne's education and should have left the plan already.

In either case it seems like if he was waiting for a miracle.

[Kolantero]

Great thread and i agree 100%. Doran's plans were very good and sound while his "failures" happened because of unforseen circumstances (and because Martin's plot "demanded" it so far).

Game of thrones is like Texas Hold'em: If you play your hands right you maximize your chances to win. But bad luck can still ruin you.

[Pellaeon]

I could be two ways:

Doran really meant to marry Viserys to Arianne, in that case he was not principally refusing the war, he was just postponing it. How did he imagine it would continue? Arianne marries Viserys and he magically defeats rest of the Westeros with 10 000 men?

Doran betrothed Arianne just in case and never really meant to follow it without Targs reclaiming the Throne by their own power. In this case he had no reason to neglect Arianne's education and should have left the plan already.

In either case it seems as if he was waiting for a miracle.

Didn't Connington implie that there were Targ Loyalist all over the Kingdom maybe he isn't alone, he must did something over the last 20 years, maybe he gathers allys

[Sevumar]

Sending Oberyn to King's Landing worked out really well, too.

I don't think that what was going on here was a sign of incompetence. In Dance, Doran gives us a very different view of his relationship with his brother than we'd seen in the past:

“I am not blind, nor deaf. I know that you all believe me weak, frightened, feeble. Your father knew me better. Oberyn was ever the viper. Deadly, dangerous, unpredictable. No man dared tread on him. I was the grass. Pleasant, complaisant, sweet-smelling, swaying with every breeze. Who fears to walk upon the grass? But it is the grass that hides the viper from his enemies and shelters him until he strikes. Your father and I worked more closely than you know … but now he is gone. The question is, can I trust his daughters to serve me in his place?”

This passage suggests a depth and cooperation we would've thought impossible from the Martell brothers in Storm and Feast. Previously, we would've seen Doran as the lone plotter, not really caring what others thought of him while Oberyn was the hot-headed viper who did as he pleased.

Doran's quote above suggests more of a good cop, bad cop routine. Doran's image is not a mistake -- he allows himself to be seen as weak, indecisive, and spineless. Manderly does much the same thing, but beneath both facades is a surprising amount of steel. Oberyn's image as the out-of-control brother allows both Martells the luxury of plausible deniability if Oberyn goes too far.

There's a real possibility that there is much more to Oberyn's life than we have seen. We get the details in a trickle throughout the story, but we know that he studied at the Citadel, earning 6 links, but leaving after that. He traveled to Essos and made the marriage pact with Darry. He served in the Second Sons and founded his own mercenary company before returning to Dorne, though we're not told anything about the fate of the company. This is a very well-educated and worldly man, not just a single-minded bloodletter. It's not far-fetched to think that he could have been on other business during his time in Essos or undertook these preparations for a specific reason.

It was a mistake not to take Arianne into their confidence earlier.

Oberyn was probably willing to sacrifice his own life to lay bare Clegane's (and Tywin's) guilt in the rape and murder of Elia. I don't think Doran completely agreed on that point, but he had to know that it was a risk inherent in sending Oberyn to King's Landing. He knew what the reaction to his death would be, and perhaps he even weighed that it would take his death in order to put the Sand Snakes into play under Doran's control.

[Ice Turtle]

Didn't Connington implie that there were Targ Loyalist all over the Kingdom maybe he isn't alone, he must did something over the last 20 years, maybe he gathers allys

There were few Targ Loyalist made even fewer after Robert's Rebellion. There are some Blackfire loyalist:

Laswell Peake rapped his knuckles on the table. “Even after a century, some of us still have friends in the Reach. The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines.”

But I doubt those would be any help for Doran.

[King Aemon I]

But I doubt those would be any help for Doran.

Why not? If Aegon Mopatis goes as Aegon VI Targaryen, his nephew, those men will stand with Aegon and Doran, isn't that the point? Why not help?

[Ice Turtle]

Why not? If Aegon Mopatis goes as Aegon VI Targaryen, his nephew, those men will stand with Aegon and Doran, isn't that the point? Why not help?

Firs of all Doran didn't know there was any Aegon. So he logically didn't count with him and I don't think that hard Blackfyre loyalists are very logical choice for allies when you are trying to restore Targaryen dynasty.

[qixoticneurotic]

seeing the unspoken behind the lines. being able to read your opponents intentions by watching his moves. doran was teaching arianne,she was supposed to watch and learn but never saw. she never elevated herself to the next level remaining too caught up in the immediate results.to see the long game. she never saw him as a player so she didnt notice she was being played. he overestimated her and she underestimated him.

so after being deposed as rulers by a baratheon lannister alliance house martell now has one member in line for casterly rock and good relations with the oposition overseas. years of peace and prosperity and ample supplies come winter. arrianne is still available as a negotiating piece and so far thier forces have suffered all of 1 casualty. no army threatens dorne and pieces are being moved into position to sew dissent among thier opponents.doran is winning.

[Pellaeon]

Firs of all Doran didn't know there was any Aegon. So he logically didn't count with him and I don't think that hard Blackfyre loyalists are very logical choice for allies when you are trying to restore Targaryen dynasty.

Doran most likely searched Targ Loyalists and found them

[Winter's Knight]

seeing the unspoken behind the lines. being able to read your opponents intentions by watching his moves. doran was teaching arianne,she was supposed to watch and learn but never saw. she never elevated herself to the next level remaining too caught up in the immediate results.to see the long game. she never saw him as a player so she didnt notice she was being played. he overestimated her and she underestimated him.

She never saw him, literally:

No. He left his cousin Ser Manfrey as castellan, old blind Ricasso as seneschal, his bailiffs to collect duties and taxes for his treasurer Alyse Ladybright to count, his shariffs to police the shadow city, his justiciars to sit in judgment, and Maester Myles to deal with any letters not requiring the prince’s own attention. Above them all he placed the Red Viper. My charge was feasts and frolics, and the entertainment of distinguished guests. Oberyn would visit the Water Gardens twice a fortnight. Me, he summoned twice a year.

[Pellaeon]

She never saw him, literally:

After your quote I ask myself, if Oberyn was Dorans "Hand" in Sunspear why didn't he train Arianne, he made sure all of his daughters were well trained, why didn't he do the same for Arianne? Even if Doran didn't agree, IMO Oberyn wouldn't have a problem to do it anyway, so why not?

[Lion of Judah]

I don't think Doran is underestimated, he is more overestimated IMO. Dorne is not as strong as many think, they cannot act unilaterally against any enemy. For all his plotting and scheming all it really serves is helping him go unnoticed. Sort of out of sight, out of mind type trick. He is more worried about survival than revenge if anything.