Doran Martell, An Underestimated Force

[Foxhound]

Her father never planed that,he wanted her to be queen, he wanted to give not tkae, but she nerver proove herself trustworthy, she would have reveald his plots, she nearly did in the halls in Sun spear befor he silence her. And her initiative would have cause a war dorne never could win, stupid, stupid idea, even without teaching she should have known that.

That's my whole fucking point. He planned on her marrying Viserys, and yet did nothing to make it happen, and yet acted like it was some terrible stroke of bad luck Viserys died. And as a result Arianne turned against her. Meanwhile his alternative plan to her's was Quentyn, and he failed.

[mcb]

Why all the emphasis on "doing something" just for the sake of "doing something?"

'Cause otherwise it's boring. If Bilbo sat on his doorstep and smoked his pipe for the entire book, that would make a very poor story, even if that's precisely what a proper hobbit is supposed to do.

[Foxhound]

Dorne joining Renly's side wouldn't have changed things. By staying out of it, Doran preserved his own army and gave himself insurance in case the Lannisters or Stannis won. He doesn't know about Shadow Babies, so he probably expects Renly and the Tyrells to steamroll the Lannisters. And remember, he holds Baratheon responsible for Elia's death as well as the more direct culprits. If he joins the Baratheon/Tyrell alliance against the Lannisters, he'll be putting a different branch of the family responsible on the Iron Throne. Why should he send a single Dornishman to accomplish that, when it appears likely to happen even if they never cross the Prince's Pass? Whereas by staying out of it, he gained a valuable hostage in Myrcella and if Renly and the Tyrells win, they may not be happy with Dorne, but they aren't likely to go to war over Doran doing nothing. And a Tyrell-dominated Renly is unlikely to become a friend of Dorne no matter what Doran tries.

He did not stay out of it. He allied himself with the Lannisters and accepted a betrothal from them. The only move he made during the war was to support Tywin Lannister.

His number one priority was always keeping Dorne whole and he's done that. His plotting to marry Ariane and Viserys, was along the same lines. If the oppurtunity presented itself to carry that through, he'd laid the groundwork. He could raise Dorne for Viserys, if crazy pants was able to put a following together that might be able to cross the Narrow Sea and join with Dorne to have a fighting chance against the rest of the realm. If not, he'd wait some more. Maybe he'd wait forever and it would never happen. I think Doran was at peace with that.

AGAIN, as part of that he neglected Arianne, and refused marriages to her, like the proposed Willas match, which could have helped heal their relationship with the Reach and actually given them some real allies.

We also don't know the extent of scheming with Illyrio with regard to Viserys and Dany. Remember, they moved around from place to place, but they didn't starve, weren't sold into brothels, etc. That could have been just the elites of the Free Cities finding them potentially useful or it could have been Doran supporting them indirectly from afar. That's speculation, of course.

We know Viserys was forced to sell everything they had, including their mother's crown, to keep going (which helped drive him over the edge). There's zero evidence Doran gave then any help (the fact that so many people arguing for him seems to give him credit for things he didn't do seems damning to me).

The real bottom line with Doran, I think, is that he was willing to forego his own vengeance for the good of his people. How many other high lords can you say that of?

Like tze pointed out, that is not Doran's story:

“You mistake patience for forbearance. I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure.

[witless chum]

He did not stay out of it. He allied himself with the Lannisters and accepted a betrothal from them. The only move he made during the war was to support Tywin Lannister.

That's what I meant by insurance. If the Lannisters win, he helped them a little. Not enough to turn the tide in their favor and if they are shirty about his lack of help, he holds Myrcella as a hostage.

AGAIN, as part of that he neglected Arianne, and refused marriages to her, like the proposed Willas match, which could have helped heal their relationship with the Reach and actually given them some real allies.

That is a good point. I didn't remember that part. But would he want to marry the heir to Dorne to Highgarden? I'm not sure that the marriage of Arianne Martell to the third son would have made the Tyrell's an ally, given the longstanding emnity between them and Dorne. Marriage alliances are nice, but they don't trump everything.

When it comes down to it, nobody really wants the Targaryens back but Dorne. The Lannisters support Queen Cersei, the North supports Ned's friend, the Vale supports Jon Arryn's foster son, the Storm Lands support their liege, the River Lands joined the rebellion and have marriage links to the two most ardent loyalists. The Tyrells are unaligned and presumably have no particular love for King Baratheon, maybe they could be won over by a marriage of Viserys to Margaery, but maybe not. Against all that the best Doran could hope for would be the Reach and Dorne rising for Viserys, with the Greyjoys making trouble and few straggling Targaryen loyalists from other areas. Even with Highgarden, they'd be outnumbered and that idea requires Doran to trust his country's oldest enemy as his partner in treason.

And I think it is Doran's story. He may be telling truth in the quote tze posted there, but he has only worked for the downfall of Tywin in ways that don't risk a war that would, at best, get a bunch of Dornish killed.

I don't believe that we're supposed to think Doran is some kind of puppet master pulling strings everywhere, as some of the more extravagant claims for him would have it. I think he's been scheming for Tywin's defeat, but only in ways that are safe for Dorne. He has a bad hand, so he has to indulge in a longshot bet like marrying Viserys to his daughter. But he shows every sign of being willing to fold and walk away from the table it he can't get Tywin. He's a smart man, I think everyone agrees, so he has to see that playing a waiting game might mean he never got vengeance.

[Guardian of the Lhazareen]

If anyone is interested the debate of Doran has already been brought up in the Balon Greyjoy, Gregor Clegane, Jofferey Lanister, Mad King Aerys, Walder Frey, Ramsey Bolton and Rosse Bolton appreciation thread....

[Foxhound]

That's what I meant by insurance. If the Lannisters win, he helped them a little. Not enough to turn the tide in their favor and if they are shirty about his lack of help, he holds Myrcella as a hostage.

Any plan that involves the phrase " If [his worst enemy wins], he helped them a little" is a bad plan. And it's not insurance because the Lannisters are not going to attack him for staying isolationist, while his plan actually puts him in danger if Stannis or Renly win.

That is a good point. I didn't remember that part. But would he want to marry the heir to Dorne to Highgarden? I'm not sure that the marriage of Arianne Martell to the third son would have made the Tyrell's an ally, given the longstanding emnity between them and Dorne. Marriage alliances are nice, but they don't trump everything.

It was to the first son, not the third. And marriages alliances are pretty powerful; Robert's entire powerbase depends on a single generation of good marriages, not any long standing alliances.

When it comes down to it, nobody really wants the Targaryens back but Dorne. The Lannisters support Queen Cersei, the North supports Ned's friend, the Vale supports Jon Arryn's foster son, the Storm Lands support their liege, the River Lands joined the rebellion and have marriage links to the two most ardent loyalists. The Tyrells are unaligned and presumably have no particular love for King Baratheon, maybe they could be won over by a marriage of Viserys to Margaery, but maybe not. Against all that the best Doran could hope for would be the Reach and Dorne rising for Viserys, with the Greyjoys making trouble and few straggling Targaryen loyalists from other areas. Even with Highgarden, they'd be outnumbered and that idea requires Doran to trust his country's oldest enemy as his partner in treason.

Then like I've already said in this thread, he should never have set a betrothal between Viserys and Arianne.

And I think it is Doran's story. He may be telling truth in the quote tze posted there, but he has only worked for the downfall of Tywin in ways that don't risk a war that would, at best, get a bunch of Dornish killed.

I don't believe that we're supposed to think Doran is some kind of puppet master pulling strings everywhere, as some of the more extravagant claims for him would have it. I think he's been scheming for Tywin's defeat, but only in ways that are safe for Dorne. He has a bad hand, so he has to indulge in a longshot bet like marrying Viserys to his daughter. But he shows every sign of being willing to fold and walk away from the table it he can't get Tywin. He's a smart man, I think everyone agrees, so he has to see that playing a waiting game might mean he never got vengeance.

Again, beyond making a marriage pact, he hasn't done anything between Elia's death and the series to actually bring Tywin down. He stuck to that marriage pact while doing nothing to fulfill it, and when Viserys died, got his son killed trying to make one with Dany. And if he didn't want to risk Dorne, they he should have just tried to assassinate Tywin and Clegane.

[Bolivar]

It really seems like a lot of you missed the whole point of Doran's big reveal. Dorne isn't populous. It's the smallest of the seven kingdoms. What could Doran have done other than what he has, outside of all-out war and a guaranteed defeat. The only other kingdom that didn't gain from Robert's Rebellion was The Reach. The odds of Sunspear and Highgarden successively collaborating is about 0.

Instead, we've seen Robert bankrupt the kingdom and his retainers destroy eachother. How much of this is a result of Doran's work? At least some, I think. It's suggested he's been working in tandem with Varys (he mentions friends in King's Landing who tell them things they're not supposed to know and Oberyn appears unafraid of the little birds). I don't think Varys is truly working in the best interests of Dorne, but as Doran has said, he has "worked at" the demise of Tywin Lannister, which suggest more than passive sitting and waiting.

Ironically, I do believe he will be unsuccessful. I think GRRM is going in the direction of having his story end as a kind of "he who hesitates is lost forever" thing, that he waited for too long and any action came too little too late. Hopefully that won't happen for a while, as I really enjoy the Dorne POVs and the Martell thread going on.

[princeimrahil]

'Cause otherwise it's boring. If Bilbo sat on his doorstep and smoked his pipe for the entire book, that would make a very poor story, even if that's precisely what a proper hobbit is supposed to do.

That's a criticism of the author's narrative, not the character's strategy.

[princeimrahil]

I mean, look at Lord Manderly as a counterexample. The Freys/Boltons murdered his king and his son. At the time of the Red Wedding, trying to take unilateral revenge on either force (and certainly the combined force) would have been suicide. So what did Lord Manderly do? He mouthed pleasantries and pretended to be weak---just like Doran Martell did. But in secret, Lord Manderly was also making tangible efforts to ameliorate his weak spots: building up a fleet and his own army, making alliances with those noble families he'd need to oppose the Bolton/Frey alliance (House Glover, House Locke, Stannis, and who knows how many others), all while trying to get his hands on Rickon Stark. Manderly didn't find out about the location of the presumed heir and . . . sit back and quietly wait for the kid to grow up. He made actual efforts to get his hands on him. Manderly didn't sit around and ignore all of the powerful noble Houses he'd need to seek revenge: he's clearly been making alliances. Manderly didn't look at his resources as a fait accompli---he did everything he could to built them up, in secret.

Doran Martell, however, has had an absolute crapload of time to build the alliances needed to bolster Dornish military might in order to take on the Lannisters---yet Manderly gained more tangible results in what, a year? than Doran Martell gained in seventeen years. He had two unbetrothed children and an unmarried younger brother---yet he made no marriage alliances with other Great Houses other than House Lannister itself! He took in no noble children from other powerful, non-Dornish Westerosi families for fosterage, and sent none of his children to foster outside of Dorne. And he did none of these things, even though clearly his wife's disapproval wasn't that much of a driving force for him (where's she now living, again?), and despite the fact that he has to have realized that a combination of marriage and fosterage ties were what forged the alliance needed to take down the Targs in the first place. I struggle to find some sort of excuse for why he seemingly never bothered making any fosterage or marriage alliances to bolster Dorne's weak military numbers, and I honestly can't think of any logical reasons for that failure.

Manderly is actually a terrible example, for the following reasons:

1) He only knows about Rickon's existence through the most unlikely of chances (i.e. finding Wex). Without this extremely fortunate (and unforeseeable) turn of events, Manderly has no meaningful goal. For that matter, he doesn't appear to even consider sending someone after Rickon until Davos shows up (see #3).

2) He is only willing to make any moves once his heir is released something which (as he admits in ADwD) Tywin was never going to do (in order to keep him loyal). He only manages to get his son back because Tywin is killed - again, an unxtremely unlikely and unforeseeable turn of events. If Tywin wasn't killed (and Manderly had no reason to expect he would be) old Fat Wyman would still be sitting on his enormous butt not daring to make a move.

3) Manderly did not seek out an alliance with Stannis - once again, an extremely unlikely, unforeseeable turn of events played in his favor by bringing Davos Seaworth to his home - and as Manderly admits, he was completely willing to execute him (and toss away any chance of finding the Stark Heir/forging an alliance with Stannis) if the Freys/Lannisters demand it (and see through his ruse).

4) Once again, he did not seek out the Glovers. Robett just happened to show up looking for Manderly's help after he was released by the Lannisters following Duskendale. Robett's brother is MIA with Maege and their contingent; they are not likely to be of any help. Heck, had Stannis not (unexpectedly and unforeseeably) freed Deepwood Motte, the Glovers would be all but useless.

So to sum up: Manderly bided his time in a way very, very much like Doran Martell, waiting for the right conditions to arrive before he did anything rash. As a result, he's got plenty of ships and silver. Now, the argument has been put forth that Sunspear has not been increasing its forces, but I'm not sure that there's much evidence of that (I'm happy to be corrected). In any event, Dorne is not very populous, nor is it a primary hub of trade in the way White Harbour is - it's much easier for Manderly to finance a buildup. In the meantime, he has carefully avoided wasting the resources he does have, which, if one is unable to increase them, exactly the right choice to make.

As far as why Dorne has no real allies - I think that has more to do with the fact that it's a nation apart from everyone else. Their geography, customs, food, laws, etc. are rather alien to the other Houses, who have little to gain from an alliance with them in any event. Getting hold of one of the two remaining Lannister/Baratheon heirs to the Iron Throne, however, is a pretty sweet move. They're in a position to make a bid for the throne... IF the conditions are right. If not, then they aren't endangered by fostering Myrcella.

[princeimrahil]

Here's the real question:

Who is currently "winning" the game and why? It certainly isn't the Starks, Lannisters, Baratheons, or Greyjoys.

I note that none of the Dorne-haters have deigned to answer my question.

But let me also add that there is some room for criticism on the part of vengeance. I think, however, that the conversation that Doran and the Sand Snakes have in ADwD clarifies that Doran probably isn't really interested in pursuing revenge - at least, not in a way that is going to cause more loss to his family. It's the Sand Snakes who are intent on "cracking Casterly rock" at any/all costs, and I believe they are upbraided for it by Arianne (with the tacit approval of Doran).

So I think I would say that Doran's strategy for getting revenge is much like his strategy in the Game of Thrones - if you can't be sure of success, better to avoid taking the chance of causing yourself great harm. This means he loses some opportunities, but then again, when realistically was he in a position to take revenge on the Lannisters and live to enjoy it?

[The Drunkard]

So he sucks at the game because he can do better than all of the other players without even playing? Explain the logic underlying that conclusion, please.

He sucks at the game because whenever he or anyone near him tries to play it, it comes back to hurt him. Keeps his plans a secret from Arianne? Myrcella almost dies and Dorne is nearly dragged into war. Sends Quentyn to find Dany? His heir burns to death. Oberyn goes to settle a score with the Lannisters? Dies almost immediately.

Meanwhile, he failed to have any revenge on anyone. He essentially let the 'bad guys' live long, happy lives ruling from their castles and keeps, and when they did die, it was due to things he couldn't possibly have foreseen. It might as well have been natural causes. The only one he even remotely got revenge on was Gregor, and that got his brother killed in the process.

He's just lucky he's avoided the game for the most part, or Dorne would likely be ravaged by now.

[Magic 8 Ball]

I'm surprised how many people missed out on the oranges as a metaphor for Doran in general.

Sittin' on the porch, watching fruit ripen, fruit gets ripe, does nothing about it, splat goes fruit on the floor.

GRRM didn't write about overripe fruit going to waste due to inaction because he was suddenly fascinated by what happens to oranges if you leave them on the tree too long.

[princeimrahil]

I'm surprised how many people missed out on the oranges as a metaphor for Doran in general.

Sittin' on the porch, watching fruit ripen, fruit gets ripe, does nothing about it, splat goes fruit on the floor.

GRRM didn't write about overripe fruit going to waste due to inaction because he was suddenly fascinated by what happens to oranges if you leave them on the tree too long.

Maybe he's a Francis Ford Coppola fan.

[witless chum]

Any plan that involves the phrase " If [his worst enemy wins], he helped them a little" is a bad plan. And it's not insurance because the Lannisters are not going to attack him for staying isolationist, while his plan actually puts him in danger if Stannis or Renly win.

I can't imagine either Baratheon attacking him for not doing anything and making a marriage alliance. Maybe Stannis.

It was to the first son, not the third. And marriages alliances are pretty powerful; Robert's entire powerbase depends on a single generation of good marriages, not any long standing alliances.

Ah, I had my Tyrells mixed up. First son is a lot better.

Then like I've already said in this thread, he should never have set a betrothal between Viserys and Arianne.

He pulled a secret marriage contract, I think, because it was low-risk. There was a low likeilihood it would come through. Maybe if Ser William Darry hadn't died. But there was a low likeilihood it would come back to bite Dorne, also.

Again, beyond making a marriage pact, he hasn't done anything between Elia's death and the series to actually bring Tywin down. He stuck to that marriage pact while doing nothing to fulfill it, and when Viserys died, got his son killed trying to make one with Dany. And if he didn't want to risk Dorne, they he should have just tried to assassinate Tywin and Clegane.

That's the problem, though. If Gregor, Amory Lorch and Tywin Lannister show up assasinated, someone might be suspicious and blame Dorne. Robert Baratheon, for instance, who'd love nothing better than a chance to hit someone with a hammer. Assassination, especially in the case of Tywin Lannister, is still risking war.

That also wouldn't fufill his stated ambition of tearing Tywin down and making him watch it.

[Foxhound]

I can't imagine either Baratheon attacking him for not doing anything and making a marriage alliance. Maybe Stannis.

Well considering Renly's close alliance with the Tyrells who knows. But he would demand Doran hand Myrcella over, and what would he do then?

He pulled a secret marriage contract, I think, because it was low-risk. There was a low likeilihood it would come through. Maybe if Ser William Darry hadn't died. But there was a low likeilihood it would come back to bite Dorne, also.

Well it bit him when Arianne figured it out. Doran was also lucky he was able to send Quentyn off to Dany. Otherwise he'd have created a situation where he had a son and a daughter who both expected to inherit Dorne.

That's the problem, though. If Gregor, Amory Lorch and Tywin Lannister show up assasinated, someone might be suspicious and blame Dorne. Robert Baratheon, for instance, who'd love nothing better than a chance to hit someone with a hammer. Assassination, especially in the case of Tywin Lannister, is still risking war.

That also wouldn't fufill his stated ambition of tearing Tywin down and making him watch it.

My main point is that his claim to be working hard towards Tywin's downfall was hot air. It's fine to say he was being cautious or thinking about the good of Dorne, but he's the one insisting he was doing..something. He certainly accomplished nothing that undid any of Tywin's work. And I don't think killing off two knights in 14 years is that difficult, especially given Oberyn's skills.

[Guardian of the Lhazareen]

I note that none of the Dorne-haters have deigned to answer my question.

But let me also add that there is some room for criticism on the part of vengeance. I think, however, that the conversation that Doran and the Sand Snakes have in ADwD clarifies that Doran probably isn't really interested in pursuing revenge - at least, not in a way that is going to cause more loss to his family. It's the Sand Snakes who are intent on "cracking Casterly rock" at any/all costs, and I believe they are upbraided for it by Arianne (with the tacit approval of Doran).

So I think I would say that Doran's strategy for getting revenge is much like his strategy in the Game of Thrones - if you can't be sure of success, better to avoid taking the chance of causing yourself great harm. This means he loses some opportunities, but then again, when realistically was he in a position to take revenge on the Lannisters and live to enjoy it?

well it certainly isn't dorne, their is a lot of internal disruption due to the whole marcella thing, he has a lot of unruley and unreliable bannermen, mainly house yorenwood, he is on bad terms with the tyrells who are curently going very well, he has lost his only hostage marcella and is now about to send arianne of to be one herself, he has lost his heir and his badass brother - with no viper in the grass people will not be afraid to walk all over the grass till it is no more....

and as for his opertunity of revenge, well siding with a 100k + strong army who are about to go kill the people doran also wants to kill seems like a rather good opertunity to me....

[Not Dead Just Broken]

I think what gets lost in the discussion is how expertly Doran handles the internal politics of Dorne. Look at what brought down most of the five kings: internal betrayals. Roose Bolton betrays Robb, Stannis kills Renly, there's strong evidence Euron killed Balon. Look at what Doran able to do within Dorne

1. His brother Oberyn is stronger and more charismatic and has reason to hold a grudge against Doran (the exile etc.). Instead of working to undermine his brother, Oberyn works as his loyal servant.
   
2. The Sand Snakes are dangerous. He can't trust them and he doesn't (checking for cuts after hugging Tyrene, locking them in the tower, etc.). So he sends them off. Obarra goes on a wild goose chase. Alleras/Sallera is in the Citadel learning the higher mysteries. Lady Nym is off to the small council. Tyrene is off to infiltrate the inner circle of the high sparrow. Not only are they all doing useful work for Doran, they are not in Dorne causing problems for him.
   
3. His daughter and heir has fallen in with a bunch of idiots and can't keep her mouth shut. What does he do? He finds out that they've got some crazy scheme to crown Myrcella and sends out his Tyroshi bodyguard to stop her. A member of the King's Guard ends up dead (major win for Doran). All of the Dornishmen get out unscathed. He then can get rid of all of Arianne's useless friends and put her with people that will actually prepare her for rule.
   
4. The other major houses in Dorne are all loyal to him. They've got their forces (according to the spoiler chapter) sitting in the mountain passes waiting for his go ahead to attack. Highgarden has no idea that they've even got a force mounted.
   

Going forward, he's got his armies in position. His Onyx Dragon (Arianne) is going to treat with "Aegon". He's got Areo Hotah with the three most dangerous fighters currently in Dorne: Balon Swann, Obarra Sand and Darkstar. I wouldn't be surprised if we get an Areo Hotah POV in book 6 where he's the only one left at the end of the bloodbath. Why else send Hotah with Obarra and Swann? I don't think Darkstar is that good with a blade.

Doran is the cool head (water gardens) among a bunch impulsive hot heads (Dorne). Just keeping everyone in line is impressive. That Quentyn and Oberyn get themselves killed is hardly Doran Martell's fault. If you blame Doran for those things do you also blame Tywin for Jofferey killing Ned Stark or Jamie losing his hand?

[jandslegate]

Doran Martell appreciation topic. That's a tough one. There's just less to him than meets the eye. Sits around all day and watches the kiddies play in the fountains while the blood oranges fall off the trees. Can't even get some gardeners to pick the damn oranges so they won't fall and make such a mess?

It may be that the oranges are an indicator of his general ineffectiveness.

Look up "The Godfather+Oranges"

ETA:Appears a few others beat me to the punch. Ah the shame of being exposed for not reading fully through a thread.

[Guardian of the Lhazareen]

Dorne on it's own doen't have the man power to be considered a proper force! there only strength lies in alliaces!

[direwienerdog]

My issue with Doran is that, thus far, he has yet to accomplish anything whatsoever. If that changes in TWOW, I'll be happy to give him credit, but as of now, he's all talk.

Well. He has so far avoided certain war with IT. Contained the Sand Snakes (no easy task) He does send Quentin into an uncertain situation. But he does seem the only clear thinker in all of Dorne an area renowned for it's emotions before thought.