Doran Martell, An Underestimated Force

[Kolantero]

Not telling Arianne was the correct thing to do. There is no doubt in my mind that she would tell everything to the sandsnakes and probably to some other friends as well... and before you know it, the news are back in KL and Robert Baratheon is on his way to Dorne (the least populated kingdom of Westeros) along with the rest of the kingdoms behind him.

She is so unreliable that even after Doran tells her about the plan, there is a scene where Obara is pushing Doran's chair while whining about his "inactivity" and Arianne actually tries to defend him in the middle of the hallway where anyone can hear them and their plan, forcing Doran to silence her.

Honestly, Arianne really needs to grow up and so are the sandsnakes. They are in their twenties (the three sandsnakes and Arianne i think?) with obara nearing thirty in a society were at the age of 13-16 you are considered an adult and they act like little hotheaded brats. Even Arya and Sansa who are about 10 and 13 are using their brains more than them and act more mature.

Perhaps he should have trained Arianne a bit more in diplomacy/ruling/whatever but not telling her the plan was the right thing to do.

[Sevumar]

She never saw him, literally:

Actually I think that what we're getting is an indication that all the pieces were in place. She was not in power the way she would have wanted to be, but he was not willfully neglecting her training. In retrospect, he should have made it clearer that she should watch, listen, and learn. She's obviously had an education in history, law, and other forms of knowledge essential for a noble (and more associated with men in other parts of the Kingdoms).

As I've said before, I think it was a mistake for him not to take her into his confidence earlier, but I don't think her resentment portrays an accurate situation. She remained at court, to see the workings of administration firsthand. If he truly wanted to isolate her from the people and knowledge involved in governance, he would have taken her with him to the Water Gardens. Instead, we see that she was exposed to the people of power and influence in Dorne, attending important functions, but remaining in the background. If I had to guess, it was probably to avoid drawing attention to her. Again, Doran should have done something to ensure that she knew he was not abandoning her.

[ASRAIL]

The thing about planning: it doesn't actually accomplish anything unless you do something about your plans. He spent 15 years planning his revenge, and the best he could come up with was to marry Arianne to Viserys (without telling her about it + condemning her to be married to a crazy abusive beggar + after not having helped Viserys at all when he was in need), or Dany to Quentyn (I guess she should have been convinced that it was the right thing to do even though Dorne never helped her, she was already engaged, and Quentyn didn't actually bring any money, ships or soldiers with him).

What was he supposed to do.? To marry his 3 year old daughter to a 4 year old exiled prince and make an open rebellion against Robert in the height of his power? The waiting was necessary for them to become of age and for the new regime to lose some of his energy and support from other families. Since when telling your top secret plan to a hot-headed teenage girl counts as a great idea? We saw what happened when she tried to pulled her own top secret plan(not very bright plan I might add). He was betrothing her to a 4 year old boy not "a crazy abusive beggar". At the time there was no need for him to help Viserys. He and his sister were living comfortably in the house with the red door. What's the point of sending troops half the world away with only purpose to bring them back? Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think that Dorn has fleet.

He didn't need to go to war to get his revenge, surely he could have made sure that at least Gregor and Amory were punished when Elia's murder was still fresh?

I don't see how he could've done that. Right after the rebellion he was in no position of demanding anything. He at the end supported the Targaryens at the Trident reluctantly or not his spearmen were there on the wrong side. The murder was only just another reason for the new regime to be suspicious of him. At the times of this you don't make claims for justice against the victors you bend your knee and try to look submissive or get wiped out of the way.

Tywin Lannister never waited on his revenge. Oh, he didn't abandon all care to go after Robb Stark, but he didn't take 15 years to plan the Red Wedding either.

No he didn't but he stood well aside from the Robert's rebellion until the last possible moment. Then he went and sacked King's landing for Robert doing the dirty work for him pledging allegiance by doing so.

And Doran didn't ask her about it. What do you think Arianne would have preferred? To be the ruler of Dorne, be a Great Lady, marry whoever she likes, command all the spears in Dorne, or... marry a crazy abusive guy, that comes with no power, no money, no army, and be a powerless "princess" (but only if Arianne wins Westeros for him of course)? What a great revenge for Doran, to ruin his daughter's life. That will teach everyone a lesson!

This is political marriage. Her opinion on the subject doesn't mean a thing. It sounds awful but that's the way things were at that time period(fantasy series).

Renly claims Dorne will soon join him, but they never do, and Tyrion says Renly is taking their allegiance for granted which is why he offers the marriage alliance to them. Doran accepts it, which means his only overt action during the war was helping the Lannisters! Pretending or not, he relieved the Lannisters from having to worry about him and added power to their claim, as others would see Dorne had joined them and act accordingly.

"Keep your friends close but your enemies closer". This was a great way to ensure insight on Tywin's plans and at the same time to try to bring some revenge for at least Elia's physical murderers(that was one of the conditions). He was basically giving them a false sense of confidence and security only to stab them in the back when they are in grave need of him. He was never going to send his troops in defence of the Lannisters against Tyrells but is going to join a Targaryen rebellion sometime after if they in some miraculous way manage to defeat the Tyrells. He was again aiming for the greater goal of ruining Lannisters instead of dealing hasty revenge at all cost.

[The Drunkard]

All he's done is plan, talk, plan, talk, scheme, plot, get gouty, plot, talk, scheme, talk.

He hasn't actually done anything of any real significance. Joffrey has been a bigger pain to the Lannisters than Doran has.

[SeanF]

Doran has certainly done the right thing in keeping Dorne out of the war, and getting advantages from it (Myrcella's marriage to Trystane, a seat on the Council) ; and he gets wind of, and frustrates, the plot to murder Trystane and blame it on Tyrion. He also gets wind of, and frustrates, Arianne's plot to crown Myrcella and provoke a war.

So, he is competent, but it doesn't alter my view that (a) brokering a marriage deal between Arianne and Viserys, but then doing nothing to provide for Viserys in exile b sending Quentyn (who's obviously not up to the job) to Daenerys and c) not training Arianne to rule or taking her into his confidence, are all misjudgements.

I reiterate my view on another thread that if he thought Arianne was unfit to rule, he should have disinherited her, and either sent her off to her mother, or placed her under comfortable house arrest for the rest of her life.

[Scipio Africanus]

Renly claims Dorne will soon join him, but they never do, and Tyrion says Renly is taking their allegiance for granted which is why he offers the marriage alliance to them. Doran accepts it, which means his only overt action during the war was helping the Lannisters! Pretending or not, he relieved the Lannisters from having to worry about him and added power to their claim, as others would see Dorne had joined them and act accordingly.

I think we need to seperate two things here. Prince Doran Martell had a responsibility to Dorne and his family. The other is getting back at those who killed his sister and her children.

Dorne has an even lower population then the North, and they have no fleet. Probably the bulk of their forces are spear infantry. That alone is not enough to join all but the most sure causes. In that respect Doran is a more honourable version of the Late Lord Walder Frey. He wants to be #winning or else he won't risk it. Is it wise? Yes, from Doran's POV it is. He's keeping his family and his subjects safe from harm's way. Is it good for the other pretenders (Stan, Renly) and independance parties (The North, Iron Isles)? No, he's giving the Lannister all the security they needed to beat down their opponents piecemeal. He's clearly in it only for Dorne. Which strikes me as odd. Why not make a deal with the Starks, Tyrells, Ironborn or the old gods know who else, if he wanted revenge so badly? Besides he knew full well the Lannister were being pressed at the Riverlands and had to deal with the looming threat of Stan's fleet at Dragonstone. Not to mention Tywin didn't know what the Ironborn really were going to do (if idiot Balon Greyjoy had a lick of sense he would've sacked Lannisport spelling trouble for Tywin). Yet Doran played along with the Lannisters and took no meassures other then trying to think of a way to get some teenage girl who was recently married to a barbarian and had been with child, and who's only claim to power were three dragon hatchlings. Besides the fact he didn't really know where she was or how she'd react.

What Doran is apparently failing to do however is to get back at those who killed his kin. After Bob's rebellion for some reason they holed up in Dorne and didn't concern themselves with Westeros politics, other then sending a letter to Ser William Darry for a marriage proposel between Arianne and Viserys. This I find very strange to say the least. Doran and Prince Oberyn Martell could've at least demanded justice from Bob (before his marriage to Cercei) in exchange for their loyality. They seem to have sold their loyalty cheap, as they kept their tongues and brooded in the sand. Again I find this strange. Oberyn is vary anxious for revenge as we would eventually see in the ASOFAI series of events. Yet the first decade and a half before that he spends his time in the Free cities banging chicks and learning how to poison people. Of course Dorne couldn't act alone but still, it's strange that Doran sold out so cheaply to the Lannisters.

All in all the way I see it, judging Doran Martell is difficult and based on what you're judging him for. In keeping Dorne and his family safe, he does well. Even Oberyn would've still been alive if he listened to Doran more. In bringing to justice those who killed Elia, he does abysmal. Ser Amory Lorch is killed by bandits (never brought to justice), Ser Gregor Clegane kills his own brother and would've probably survived had Oberyn not poisoned his weapon (he too was never brought to justice), and Tywin Lannister got shot and killed by his own son (again never brought to justice).

In terms of the Game, Doran isn't #winning either. Quentyn's diplomatic mission was always risky and prone to failure, and for a man who is so-called cautious he is banking on a whimsical teenager of whome he knows little to nothing about and who may or may not help him. Besides not really knowing where she is or what she's going to do. And already married once (why wouldn't she marry again by the time Quentyn got there). Not to mention if the rest of Westeros would follow Dany at all.

Oberyn is dead and he was the man Dorne would follow. He's left with a bunch of sand snakes and his imperious daughter. All of those will not help him much in winning the Game. He can't even control the biggest douche of Dorne, Darkstar, for the life of him. I somehow doubt he or any sand snake will be able to lead an army to much good. His only hope is that Aegon (Blackfyre) seeks allies and agrees to marry Arianne the way I see it. And that Aegon takes control of the forces Dorne sends. And that houses in the Reach and Storm Lands rally for Aegon.

[DorneRising]

Old Doran Martell, he’ll inevitably divide opinion because of his focus on long-term plotting and his understanding of the cost of war, unlike most of the other families that act on impulse (coughStarkcough).

What you think of Doran probably reflects on what you’re like politically; reactionary vs. forward-thinker, short-term vs. long-term, inpatient vs. patient. What would you do in his situation? Dorne is not a very strong region and as a relatively new entry in the new political make-up of Westeros, it doesn’t have any major allies apart from the exiled Targaryens.

The positive view of Doran, and one I'm subscribed to, is that he is a shrewd man who knows how to play the game of thrones, but does so in a very different way to the others. As aforementioned, he knows the price of war. The deaths of Oberyn and Quentyn only happen because of their actions. Doran’s Dorne come across as USA in early WWII (someone probably has a better analogy). They appear neutral but covertly they are allying with a big player, in this case the Targaryen cause. His plot concerning Viserys was only ruined because of Viserys's arrogant behaviour. Doran may have told the Red Viper to kill Tywin and Gregor in KL. If you believe the Oberyn poisoned Tywin theories, like myself, then those tasks would have been completed. Myrcella Lannister is also a potential hostage who could have been returned to Cersei had she got her own way, but Doran avoided that pitfall, sending Ser Balon off on a goose chase. Finally, I feel we have not been made aware of all his plans. Now he has Arianne and the Sand Snakes united behind him, he can use them as he pleases. Nymeria in KL, Sarella in Oldtown and Obara with Ser Balon are part of a wider-ranging plot. Doran may also ally with Aegon and his army in the next book which, if they then later ally with Daenerys, will be the wisest decision he'll ever make because they'll be favourites for the Iron Throne.

On the other hand, Doran is arguably too cautious in his plans, many of which have been made void simply because long-term plots will more likely go wrong because of the length of passing time. The deaths of Oberyn and Quentyn could have been avoided, but their actions may reflect Doran’s political dogma. Oberyn was patient in dealing with Gregor, playing with him instead of killing him quickly. This led to Oberyn’s death. Likewise, instead of Quentyn fleeing the dragons or attacking them, he preferred to stay there, waiting and trying to command instead of reacting like many others. This too led to his death, although maybe that connection is vague. While plotting secretively, Doran has been left out of the battles and therefore is becoming a forgotten region. Doran is presumably banking on the Targs. If Daenerys fails to come to Westeros or dies, his plans will be in ruin. If Aegon is a Blackfyre, how will Doran react then?

I agree that Doran is underestimated at the moment. He is a dangerous player with many tricks up his sleeves and has the Sand Snakes united with him. However, his legacy and tactics will rely on whether this patient, long-term thinking approach actually improves Dorne’s standing in Westeros. Ultimately, I think Dorne will end up as one of the better off Houses come the end of the book. For starters, they’re furthest away from the Others.

[jblair]

So, maybe he should have made her a part of his plans, instead of keeping her in the dark for 20 years? Did he just expect her to sit at home and sew for 20 years? She's going to become ruler of Dorne when he's dead - the least he could do is make her capable. I mean, Ned took his sons' educations in had from very early on. He had Bran witnessing an execution at 7 years old! Because he knew that his sons will have to take over his duties someday. Doran simply holds his secrets close with him, and doesn't even trust his own family to help him, even though he knows he's probably going to die in another 10 years. Doran has tried the limits of both Arianne and Quentyn. Which is why Quentyn is dead, and why Arianne was almost ready to betray him.

Maybe Doran did try to groom her. Arianne's utter lack of interest in books when she was cooped up perhaps points to a general lack of enthusiasm for studying; she also shows a massive sense of entitlement and childish petulance during this episode. Her need to tell all her childhood buddies her ridiculous plan shows that she would have been 100% incapable of keeping a secret so dangerous it could get her entire house extinguished if it got out. Hopefully she will now look at things with better judgment, but I cannot fault Doran for not letting his offspring in on this big plan, given what we have seen of her personality so far.

[jblair]

I disagree that Robert wouldn't have punished Gregor and Amory if he was pressed to do so.

What!?

Robert (who was secretly relieved Tywin did his nasty business for him) is going to execute bannermen of his new wife (and principal base of power) directly after a nasty rebellion. All for a family who stayed loyal to the regime, is one of the weaker kingdoms, and has very little cultural ties to the rest of the realm. You are dreaming.

[SeanF]

What Doran is apparently failing to do however is to get back at those who killed his kin. After Bob's rebellion for some reason they holed up in Dorne and didn't concern themselves with Westeros politics, other then sending a letter to Ser William Darry for a marriage proposel between Arianne and Viserys. This I find very strange to say the least. Doran and Prince Oberyn Martell could've at least demanded justice from Bob (before his marriage to Cercei) in exchange for their loyality. They seem to have sold their loyalty cheap, as they kept their tongues and brooded in the sand. Again I find this strange. Oberyn is vary anxious for revenge as we would eventually see in the ASOFAI series of events. Yet the first decade and a half before that he spends his time in the Free cities banging chicks and learning how to poison people. Of course Dorne couldn't act alone but still, it's strange that Doran sold out so cheaply to the Lannisters.

Dorne had fought against Robert, and lost. That left them in a weak position to demand justice for Elia. Presumably, Jon Arryn told Doran that he'd be attainted if he continued to press the issue.

[Arkantos]

What did people want Doran to do?

Looks like he succesfully plotted to kill Tywin & Gregor, only to be foiled by Tyrion's shenanigans and Oberyn's impulsiveness.

His other plans were ruined by Viserys acting like an idiot, it's a good job really, even if he had been provided for all his life by Dorne and married Arianne, he still clearly showed a lack of judgement (hey Dothraki, I gots me a sword and i'm gonna kill your khal's son!).

After that, Quentyn thought he could tame a dragon, to be fair, he seemed to be doing ok until the other one stepped in.

To be honest, all his plots were pretty sound so far, only not working out due to the pieces making mistakes.

People complain that he was too secretive with his plans, well, Arianne was clearly incapable of subtle plotting, since she was found out and picked bad comrades. Also, she was the type who'd rather sit around doing nothing than read a book, which I don't see as a good sign of intellect.

There's noone else who needed to know either, looks like he often plotted with Oberyn, who covered all the bases for what Doran needed, now that he's gone, he's bringing in the sand snakes and such to replace him.

[Twinslayer]

I think we need to seperate two things here. Prince Doran Martell had a responsibility to Dorne and his family. The other is getting back at those who killed his sister and her children.

I agree. His first duty is to preserve Dorne. We know that Dorne is hard to conquer (they have the "sun & spear" defense). But they don't seem to have shown much ability to project their power and Doran believes his is one of the weaker kingdoms.

His second interest here is in getting revenge for Elia. That is a more personal interest. Doran can be admired for putting the interests of his kingdom first, his sister second.

On the revenge front, I don't blame him for the way he handled the betrothal to Vyseris. He was forging an alliance to help Vyseris get to the throne. But he wasn't going to do it all for Vyseris. Leaving Vyseris a little on his own in the early years put the boy in the position of having to do something for himself, forge other alliances, etc. Then, when he comes back, he can land in Dorne, and Dorne is first among the allies. But Doran knows that he does not have the ability to put Vyseris on the throne all by himself.

Finally, by the time he sent Quentyn to Dany, Dany was a major power in her own right (with 3 dragons!). Dorne was in danger of being left behind if Dany could conquer Westeros without Dorne's help. At that point, Doran thought a huge gamble was needed. Send Quentyn to Dany quietly -- with a small group -- to see if he can forge an alliance. If it doesn't work out, cynical as it sounds, he has two other heirs. And the fact that it did not work out is not, in my view, because the plan was bad. It was because Dany was dumb laugh at Quentyn (who was offering an alliance with one of the regions that was still intact after the War of 5 Kings and an immediate power base in Westeros) and because Quentyn was too dumb to negotiate a fall-back position (didn't Dany say something like the dragon has 3 heads, so all your work was not in vain -- suggesting Dorne wouldn't get her hand, but it might get a dragon)?

[Light a wight tonight]

The defense of the marriage pact between Arianne and Viserys rests on the fact that when it was made there was no way of knowing how unsuitable Viserys turned out to be, but that pact was nearly 15 years old and if Doran was such a hotshot plotter he pretty much had an obligation to monitor the proposed husband to his heir. Failure in execution.

Doran seems to get stuck on Plan A and not have Plans B and C for when things go wrong. When they do he has to wing it, largely without success.

[Arkantos]

Viserys was hidden away with Illyrio for a while, I doubt it;s easy to get info out of there, it may have been that Doran was tracking him up til then.

Maybe Oberyn's travels to the free cities were to check up on the Targs.

[Pellaeon]

Crackpot Alert!

One of my favorite crackpot theories is that LF is nothing more than Varys pawn, so what if Varys is only Dorans?

[Tyrion Tanner]

I agree with all the Doran Martell apologists. Everyone, even the Doran haters, agree that he is calculating (to a fault?). He may not have had a good opportunity to exact revenge during Robert's Reign. Aside from Crazy Balon, King Robert kept peace in the kingdoms (pardoned the right lords and had the strongest alliances- Lannister, Stark, Arryn, Tully)

What was Doran supposed to do? Send all the teenage Sandsnakes out into the Game and get them all killed? Send the crazy Red Viper to challenge people and poison them while pretty much committing suicide?

Here's what he did do:

1. He kept Dorne out of all drama that left the North fractured and the Riverlands destroyed.

2. Protected all the Sandsnakes (excellent asset=attractive Dornish Royalty to play the Game) throughout their crazy teenage years (in TWOW the young one is like making out with soldiers and goofy stuff as soon as she leaves Doran's watchful eye)

3. Got to know them and all of their strengths and weaknesses(i.e. send one to High Septa, one to Small council, one to Maesters) while educated them in history/etiquette/caution

Now he has unleashed them into various plots just when most of the other houses are in peril/very weak. Presumably now he has a loyal bunch of beautiful women seducing people in various dif places/positions with one common goal.

[Tyrion Tanner]

BTW that was my first post. So be gentle

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

I honestly think the criticism of Doran is somewhat unfair. It strikes me as funny that all the fans of Oberyn are seemingly blind to the fact that the guy would have most likely gone and got himself killed years prior to ASOS if it weren't for the restraining influence of Doran.

However, this is not to say Doran is beyond criticism. He could obviously have handled the Myrcella abduction event better and to this day we have no evidence that he can deliver on his fire and blood promises.

Yet I have faith. I've liked and respected Doran since his introduction (especially his willingness to undertake actions that will harm his own popularity in order to help protect his people). He's held his cards very close with good reason, bluffed his way through the flop and just about held on past the turn. The river is coming though, and that is when we shall able to see if his patience was a virtue.

[Winter's Ghost]

So far, I think he's done a good job. He has to balance his want for revenge with his duties as Prince and the realities of the situation. The Viserys plot didn't work out, so he moved on to a new one, he didn't dwell on it, the Dany plot didn't work out, so I think he will move on to a new one. He seems to be able to change courses very quickly when things don't go his way, which is a good trait to have.

Him not telling Arianne, to me, seemed reasonable, her actions have showed that she lacks patience and wouldn't have been able to keep the secret, especially when she was younger (she was probably worse).

Nobody, sans a few, know what he is up to, that, IMO, is huge.

And most importantly, Dorne has been untouched by war and this is all due to Doran.

I'm not saying he doesn't make mistakes, everybody does (even Varys and LF), but he moves on from them and trys something else, without putting Dorne into situations it can not handle.

[Ironborn Iditarod]

I agree with all the Doran Martell apologists. Everyone, even the Doran haters, agree that he is calculating (to a fault?). He may not have had a good opportunity to exact revenge during Robert's Reign. Aside from Crazy Balon, King Robert kept peace in the kingdoms (pardoned the right lords and had the strongest alliances- Lannister, Stark, Arryn, Tully)

What was Doran supposed to do? Send all the teenage Sandsnakes out into the Game and get them all killed? Send the crazy Red Viper to challenge people and poison them while pretty much committing suicide?

Here's what he did do:

1. He kept Dorne out of all drama that left the North fractured and the Riverlands destroyed.

2. Protected all the Sandsnakes (excellent asset=attractive Dornish Royalty to play the Game) throughout their crazy teenage years (in TWOW the young one is like making out with soldiers and goofy stuff as soon as she leaves Doran's watchful eye)

3. Got to know them and all of their strengths and weaknesses(i.e. send one to High Septa, one to Small council, one to Maesters) while educated them in history/etiquette/caution

Now he has unleashed them into various plots just when most of the other houses are in peril/very weak. Presumably now he has a loyal bunch of beautiful women seducing people in various dif places/positions with one common goal.

Nice first post! I'll use my first post to agree with you. I think Doran's playing the long con on Westeros and thinking like a responsible leader of Dorne first and a man out for revenge second. If he doesn't accomplish direct revenge on those responsible, he can still accomplish his first goal of bringing power to Dorne.