Doran Martell, An Underestimated Force

[Janicia]

Doran will be redeemed if he has more successful plots going on that we haven't heard about. One possibility is that Darkstar is working for Doran in a similar fashion to whatshisface working for Littlefinger. We know that somebody leaked Arienne's plan to Doran, and Darkstar was less personally loyal to Arienne than the others. Maybe the attack on Myrcella was part of Doran's revenge. Then Doran announces that he has no choice besides sending Myrcella back to Kings Landing. I don't believe that he had no choice - he explicitly disobeyed other demands while choosing to obey this one. I think he's hoping to provoke the Lannisters/Cersei into doing something stupid. He also seems to have an intelligence network in Kings Landing.

Like all of the other characters, Doran is imperfect. His plots so far haven't been robust enough to survive real circumstances. I think he is an intelligent person who thoroughly dislikes war and bloodshed, so it is painful to think about how to do them well. I like Doran for his gentleness, love of life, and humility. But I don't think he has the ruthlessness to be a great player of the Game.

[Sapphire]

I like Doran, but my opinion of him lies somewhere between the Sand Snakes thinking him useless and fans making him out to be a scheming mastermind. Making plans is the easy part. I'll be impressed when results are yielded.

Edit: To the people who are telling that he should have trained Ariane to be his successor. She was never meant to be his successor as she herself found out. She was supposed to be a princess of the Seven kingdoms therefore no special training required because the princesses of the Seven kingdoms have no real power. The only thing required of them is to produce heirs.

That's a poor excuse imo. He's plotting to depose Robert, go against the Lannisters/Baratheons and crown Viserys and he thinks the only tool Arianne should have at her disposal is how to throw a good feast. Eh. Even if his plan had succeeded, the restored Targaryen rule would be tumultuous at first. Arianne groomed to be an asset to Viserys had nothing to lose. Besides, the worst thing that could happen did, Arianne lost her betrothed and she's back to being an unprepared heir.

Doran is one of the most competent rulers we've seen and I give him props for not jumping into the fray knowing Dorne was in no position to rebel. Of course, funny thing is, all the people he had legitimate beef with are dead and Dorne will now go to war against people who are not directly responsible for the Martell murders. Cersei didn't kill Elia. Tommen didn't force Oberyn to fight for Tyrion. At that point I'm not sure if Doran can really claim to want no part in unnecessary bloodshed.

[FanTasy]

His "careful planning" and "patience" look suspiciously similar to "sitting around doing nothing." Doran signs a marriage pact between Arianne and Viserys and then does...nothing. He just waits, for years, as both Arianne and Viserys come of age, and still does nothing. Then Viserys dies (surprise, a guy nicknamed the "Beggar King" was a high risk!) and Doran curses the gods for ruining his plan. What plan? He was in no better position to crown Viserys when he died than at the end of the rebellion. Was he hoping that Robert would die and cause a massive succession crisis? Then he switches his plan to Quentyn, which after over a decade and half of planning is give him five guys and tell him good luck.

Pray, what could he have done about it? Inviting Viserys to stay at Dorne?

This would have meant immediate war. A war Dorne could not have won, not during the rebellion (everyone else wanted theTargaryens out) or later. Dorne is not very populated and cannot raise an army strong enough to defeat the amount of men the ruling house of Baratheon could raise, supported by the Lannisters, the North, the Riverlands, the Vale.

[Foxhound]

Pray, what could he have done about it? Inviting Viserys to stay at Dorne?

This would have meant immediate war. A war Dorne could not have won, not during the rebellion (everyone else wanted theTargaryens out) or later. Dorne is not very populated and cannot raise an army strong enough to defeat the amount of men the ruling house of Baratheon could raise, supported by the Lannisters, the North, the Riverlands, the Vale.

First of all, I agree Dorne launching a rebellion on its own was impossible. But that's why he should never have made the marriage pact. If he isn't willing to take any risks for Viserys, he shouldn't be neglecting his heir on a plan that apparently boils down to hoping Viserys will get himself in power. Now it's fine to keep your options open to that possibility by not marrying Arianne for a while, but it's not okay to act like she'll never be in power.

For example, he could have sent someone to help out Viserys when Darry died, and set him up in exile permanently in one city. That way, Viserys wouldn't be left wandering around to get increasingly desperate and crazy. He could have made deals with sellswords like Tyrion does with the Second Sons and Griff does with the Golden Company (hell, Arianne thought Quentyn had done exactly that). In Westeros he could make marriage alliances with other families and plot with Targ loyalists instead of sitting around in isolation. if your response is "but he couldn't trust anyone" or "that's too risky" then again, that means this plan sucks and wasting your heir on it is a bad idea.

People keep claiming Doran is a careful planner, but again, what plans did he actually make? For the Arianne-Viserys plot he apparently had zero plans, and for Quentyn-Dany he just sent Quentyn off with five guys on his own to go get Dany, which is a purely off-hand idea, not something carefully planned.

[imperfek]

Doran had a good plan. The only reason his plan fell through was because his peices acted retarded and got themselves killed.

• Visery was suppose to return with khal drogos army and join with Dorne. that was going according to plan till he decided to threaten an army of dothraki.
  
• Red viper was winning a fight with the mountain to the point where he got over emotional and screwed up
  
• Arianne decided she wanted to go to war despite the overwhelming disadvantage and Quentyn wanted to try and become a dragontammer and got fried.
  
• oh yeah and Dany got Khal Drogo and her child killed
  

i think people are blaming him for something that wasnt in his control, its better than going to war you would surely lose. Have we learn nothing from Greyjoys first rebellion?

[King Aemon I]

More like an overestimated force... Did all he could, showing himself stronger than he is, building alliances.. Don't take Dorne as the weakest though, still can raise 25-30.000.. But I really don't get what you were expecting of him, conquering Westeros on his own or something?

[chrisdaw]

Doran is one of the most competent rulers we've seen and I give him props for not jumping into the fray knowing Dorne was in no position to rebel. Of course, funny thing is, all the people he had legitimate beef with are dead and Dorne will now go to war against people who are not directly responsible for the Martell murders. Cersei didn't kill Elia. Tommen didn't force Oberyn to fight for Tyrion. At that point I'm not sure if Doran can really claim to want no part in unnecessary bloodshed.

The realm beileves Jaime complicit in the KL sack and murders, and Cersei plans to murder Trystane. Also Doran states that his goal is to undo Tywin's life's work, which would mean at the very least removing Tommen/Cersei and perhaps taking control of the Westerlands.

The gods keep ruining his plans, but he's in a better position than most still being in the game with lands and people untouched by war, but what were his plan? In short here's what I think.

He bribed Moore to kill Tyrion when Moore took Myrcella to Dorne. When he sent Oberyn to KL it was to poison Joff at the purple wedding, get accused by the Lannisters and Tyrells and be put on trial (they couldn't just kill Oberyn because Doran holds Myrcella) so he could request a trial by combat, which would most likely provide him the opportunity to kill Jaime. When Quentyn swept in I think they probably planned to wed Oberyn to Cersei in the aftermath and claim the Westerlands, avenging Tywin's first slight against Dorne. As Oberyn is dead I think he'll use Trystane and Myrcella for the same purpose.

Things went awry when Tyrion got the blame for Joff and I think Oberyn started improvising, defending Tyrion to fight Gregor and poisoning Tywin.

[Scipio Africanus]

The gods keep ruining his plans, but he's in a better position than most still being in the game with lands and people untouched by war, but what were his plan? In short here's what I think.

He bribed Moore to kill Tyrion when Moore took Myrcella to Dorne. When he sent Oberyn to KL it was to poison Joff at the purple wedding, get accused by the Lannisters and Tyrells and be put on trial (they couldn't just kill Oberyn because Doran holds Myrcella) so he could request a trial by combat, which would most likely provide him the opportunity to kill Jaime. When Quentyn swept in I think they probably planned to wed Oberyn to Cersei in the aftermath and claim the Westerlands, avenging Tywin's first slight against Dorne. As Oberyn is dead I think he'll use Trystane and Myrcella for the same purpose.

Things went awry when Tyrion got the blame for Joff and I think Oberyn started improvising, defending Tyrion to fight Gregor and poisoning Tywin.

Good theories, but we don't have much evidence yet who bribed Moore and considering there were no Dornish people at the time to do the bribing it may be far fetched,.Doran doesn't trust Varys and I doubt he knew LF very well.

I think Oberyn came to KL mainly to kill Tywin not Joff. But I suppose it could be that he wanted to do in both, but that the QoT stole the march on him by bumping off Joff herself.

[Lummel]

Doran had a good plan. The only reason his plan fell through was because his peices acted retarded and got themselves killed...

Working with 'retarded' pieces isn't the sign of a good plan.

The weakness of all Doran's plans is they depend on people who aren't up to the job - at least so far. Although personally I can forgive him a lot for his determination to avoid a war that would only cause suffering for his people.

...He bribed Moore to kill Tyrion when Moore took Myrcella to Dorne. When he sent Oberyn to KL it was to poison Joff at the purple wedding, get accused by the Lannisters and Tyrells and be put on trial (they couldn't just kill Oberyn because Doran holds Myrcella) so he could request a trial by combat, which would most likely provide him the opportunity to kill Jaime...

Mandon Moore doesn't go to Dorne - Oakheart does. Ser Mandon Moore has no known contacts with Dorne, his links are with the Vale.

The Oberyn poisoning theory is interesting, but there's no support for it in the text that I can think of.

[Edmure Floppy-Fish Tully]

When Quentyn and his fellows travel across the Narrow Sea, corsairs fall upon them, and three of them are killed, included the maester, who was the most knowledgeable of the lot.

Quentyn could have gotten killed, and all of Doran's careful plans reduced to nothing... by pirates...

No, I don't really hold Doran's 'planning' in high esteem.

(The Quentyn-Dany marriage plan was damn stupid in the first place, if you ask me - and Arianne-Viserys as well)

[Edmure Floppy-Fish Tully]

He bribed Moore to kill Tyrion when Moore took Myrcella to Dorne. When he sent Oberyn to KL it was to poison Joff at the purple wedding, get accused by the Lannisters and Tyrells and be put on trial (they couldn't just kill Oberyn because Doran holds Myrcella) so he could request a trial by combat, which would most likely provide him the opportunity to kill Jaime. When Quentyn swept in I think they probably planned to wed Oberyn to Cersei in the aftermath and claim the Westerlands, avenging Tywin's first slight against Dorne. As Oberyn is dead I think he'll use Trystane and Myrcella for the same purpose.

Interesting thoughts. I like your Moore theory. Though wise people in this boards have pointed their fingers at Littlefinger as well.

[Foxhound]

Doran had a good plan. The only reason his plan fell through was because his peices acted retarded and got themselves killed.

• Visery was suppose to return with khal drogos army and join with Dorne. that was going according to plan till he decided to threaten an army of dothrak
  

That wasn't Doran's plan at all, that was Illyrio's. Doran has nothing to do with Dany marrying Drogo. Without Illryio Viserys would have kept wandering the Free Cities with no support, and if he had survived probably would have married Dany and ruined Doran's plan anyway.

More like an overestimated force... Did all he could, showing himself stronger than he is, building alliances.. Don't take Dorne as the weakest though, still can raise 25-30.000.. But I really don't get what you were expecting of him, conquering Westeros on his own or something?

What alliances did he make, outside of Dorne?

He bribed Moore to kill Tyrion when Moore took Myrcella to Dorne.

Moore never set foot in Dorne.

When he sent Oberyn to KL it was to poison Joff at the purple wedding, get accused by the Lannisters and Tyrells and be put on trial (they couldn't just kill Oberyn because Doran holds Myrcella) so he could request a trial by combat, which would most likely provide him the opportunity to kill Jaime. When Quentyn swept in I think they probably planned to wed Oberyn to Cersei in the aftermath and claim the Westerlands, avenging Tywin's first slight against Dorne. As Oberyn is dead I think he'll use Trystane and Myrcella for the same purpose.

Things went awry when Tyrion got the blame for Joff and I think Oberyn started improvising, defending Tyrion to fight Gregor and poisoning Tywin.

There's only very circumstantial evidence Oberyn has poisoned Tywin, and no evidence he ever planned on poisoning Joffrey. And if his plan was to kill Joffrey, then kill Jaime in trial by combat, and then expect to just walk away, he's lucky he didn't get the chance.

[princeimrahil]

Dorne's current position as of the end of ADwD:

1) Murderers of the Prince's family during Robert's Rebellion? All dead (including: an excruciating death for Clegane and an ignominious death for Tywin - I personally subscribe to the Viper-Poison theory, btw).

2) Biggest regional rivals? Preoccupied with the trial of their eldest daughter for capital offenses against the crown

3) Influence at court? Now have a seat on the small council (amongst a confused, squabbling, incompetent lot)

4) Potential Claims to the Throne? Possession of the Crown Princess (who would inherit according to Dornish law) and an engagement between her and the dornish royal line

5) Military forces? Untouched (compared to many of the other great houses, who have been exhausted by internecine conflict)

6) Allies?

a) Potentially, one with three Dragons

B) Almost certainly one at the command of the most renowned and competent mercenary band in the world

7) Losses? Two members of the prince's family (Compared to: almost the entirety of Houses Greyjoy, Lannister, Stark, and Baratheon)

Despite some family tragedies, Doran Martell has expended almost none of the Dorne's strength in War of Five Kings. His resources are almost completely untouched, whereas other powers in the kingdom have been either heavily exhausted or all but extinguished. There is a bitter struggle for control of the regency at court, with the most powerful factions bickering and distrusting each other; Doran, by contrast, has managed to convince his most valuable allies/family members to consent to his plans, finally bringing an end to the (limited) disunity of his own faction. Moreover, Dorne has been outwardly loyal throughout the entire conflict, having made no moves that can provide proof of treachery or duplicity - many may suspect their motives, but they have not pulled a Walder Frey/Roose Bolton and proven themselves to be faithless.

So yeah I guess, you can make the argument that, at the end of the day, Prince Doran hasn't really done anything...

...but that's because sometimes, doing nothing is the best move you can make in the Game of Thrones.

[TalalOfDorne]

...but that's because sometimes, doing nothing is the best move you can make in the Game of Thrones.

:agree: When others are beating themselves to death why should you interfere? theyre already doing the work for you. That reason is partly why Dorne is currently in a better position than most regions in Westeros.

[chrisdaw]

Mandon Moore doesn't go to Dorne - Oakheart does. Ser Mandon Moore has no known contacts with Dorne, his links are with the Vale.

My mistake, I thought he went with Arys and returned.

The Oberyn poisoning theory is interesting, but there's no support for it in the text that I can think of.

I plan to go through and read the appropriate chapters and put it all together, just haven't got there yet. Theory is bourne of information provided with seemingly little or no relevance. Doran's stating he was the grass that shields the viper so that he might strike. Oberyn explaining he has nothing against the Tyrells and considers Wilas a friend, which would cause the chalice to prevent him from attempting to poison Joff at the wedding as it would also endanger Marge. The story of the first slight by Tywin against Dorne when he refused Cersei's hand despite it being thought a done thing and offering Tyrion's instead. The kicker is it'd provide Dorne the chance to repay their blood debt most fittingly by recreating the situation Dorne has had to endure, in knowing who is responsible for the death of their family but being unable to exact vengeance.

And if his plan was to kill Joffrey, then kill Jaime in trial by combat, and then expect to just walk away, he's lucky he didn't get the chance.

What would they do? What could they do? Kill Oberyn and let Myrcella be lost and risk war? Convince the Tyrell's to go to war over a man who proved his innocence? Dorne's forces are poised to strike outside the reach, how fast can the Tyrells scramble? How much will be lost by the time they do? And who will lead them until Mace can get there? Wilas? Oberyn's friend will lead the Reach against Dorne because the Lannisters will not accept an innocent verdict of his friend?

[The Drunkard]

Pretty much all of Doran's successes have come from doing nothing at all. You can't really attribute a lot of his apparent wins to himself, given he didn't do anything to set them up. They happened out of luck alone.

Doran and Tywin would have to be two of the most overrated characters.

[Spinozaad]

Dorne's current position as of the end of ADwD:

1) Murderers of the Prince's family during Robert's Rebellion? All dead (including: an excruciating death for Clegane and an ignominious death for Tywin - I personally subscribe to the Viper-Poison theory, btw).

2) Biggest regional rivals? Preoccupied with the trial of their eldest daughter for capital offenses against the crown

3) Influence at court? Now have a seat on the small council (amongst a confused, squabbling, incompetent lot)

4) Potential Claims to the Throne? Possession of the Crown Princess (who would inherit according to Dornish law) and an engagement between her and the dornish royal line

5) Military forces? Untouched (compared to many of the other great houses, who have been exhausted by internecine conflict)

6) Allies?

a) Potentially, one with three Dragons

B) Almost certainly one at the command of the most renowned and competent mercenary band in the world

7) Losses? Two members of the prince's family (Compared to: almost the entirety of Houses Greyjoy, Lannister, Stark, and Baratheon)

Despite some family tragedies, Doran Martell has expended almost none of the Dorne's strength in War of Five Kings. His resources are almost completely untouched, whereas other powers in the kingdom have been either heavily exhausted or all but extinguished. There is a bitter struggle for control of the regency at court, with the most powerful factions bickering and distrusting each other; Doran, by contrast, has managed to convince his most valuable allies/family members to consent to his plans, finally bringing an end to the (limited) disunity of his own faction. Moreover, Dorne has been outwardly loyal throughout the entire conflict, having made no moves that can provide proof of treachery or duplicity - many may suspect their motives, but they have not pulled a Walder Frey/Roose Bolton and proven themselves to be faithless.

So yeah I guess, you can make the argument that, at the end of the day, Prince Doran hasn't really done anything...

...but that's because sometimes, doing nothing is the best move you can make in the Game of Thrones.

After reading the first page of hate, I came to make this post. I tip my hat to you, Lord Blackadder; a man as cunning as a fox who's just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University!

Patience is a virtue in politics, especially when your enemies have no patience whatsoever.

[Scipio Africanus]

Dorne's current position as of the end of ADwD:

1) Murderers of the Prince's family during Robert's Rebellion? All dead (including: an excruciating death for Clegane and an ignominious death for Tywin - I personally subscribe to the Viper-Poison theory, btw).

2) Biggest regional rivals? Preoccupied with the trial of their eldest daughter for capital offenses against the crown

3) Influence at court? Now have a seat on the small council (amongst a confused, squabbling, incompetent lot)

4) Potential Claims to the Throne? Possession of the Crown Princess (who would inherit according to Dornish law) and an engagement between her and the dornish royal line

5) Military forces? Untouched (compared to many of the other great houses, who have been exhausted by internecine conflict)

6) Allies?

a) Potentially, one with three Dragons

B) Almost certainly one at the command of the most renowned and competent mercenary band in the world

7) Losses? Two members of the prince's family (Compared to: almost the entirety of Houses Greyjoy, Lannister, Stark, and Baratheon)

Dorne is still in no position to do anything. They're the smallest of the 7 kingdoms and while good on defense they need allies if they want to truely play the Game. Here comes the problem. Dany, the one he's been banking on, has had one of her pet lizards deepfrey Doran's son. How will Doran take that news once he hears it? Will he be so willing to forget and forgive?

As for more mundane allies, Dorne spent centuries fighting Stormlords and the lords of the Reach. Why ally with them now? And as for the Lannisters, it is my belief that they're time is ending as a power in KL. Cercei has barely any supporters left thanks to our friend Varys. How much is it going to be worth that Doran hold's Cercei's daughter? If she is even still alive (we'll assume so for the moment). I think Doran's big bargaining chip might become worthless in WoW. All he has to show for it are a bunch of pissed off Sand Snakes and dead male family members. And a seat on a worthless council, as the Tyrells will basically do what they want in KL till Aegon pops up with the GC. I don't know if Doran is even aware of Aegon and the GC at the moment and how he'll react to them. In terms of the Game he's doing poorly.

The problem is twofold. Doran isn't playing the Game for the Throne - he's playing against the Lannisters. And honest he's not doing a very good job. It was Tyrion who killed Tywin not Oberyn. Oberyn was killed by mr. Mountain, who only died because Oberyn poisoned his weapon. Amory Lorch was killed by bandits. Not to mention Doran essentially bent a knee to Bob Baratheon and Tywin Lannister, the ones who murdered his sister plus his nephews. Sure he spent years brooding but Bob and Tywin went on their marry ways for decades. In terms of getting even he's done poorly.

The only thing he is good at is keeping Dorne out of the war. For how much that is worth.

Pretty much all of Doran's successes have come from doing nothing at all. You can't really attribute a lot of his apparent wins to himself, given he didn't do anything to set them up. They happened out of luck alone.

Doran and Tywin would have to be two of the most overrated characters.

To be fair to Tywin, he was constantly busy and plotting. He won a great tactically victory in pacifying the realm by getting Robb Stark murdered. In his mind it was a stroke of genius to send "Arya" to the North as a bride to his new lapdogs the Boltons. In his mind, just before he died, he was just mopping in the Riverlands.

Of course we know as reader Tywin badly underestimated the political situation in the North, and utterly fails to understand the concept of winning hearts&minds. All he thinks about it beating down rebellions and oppression. In the long run he failed to pacify the realm under Lannister rule, as we will see in WoW.

But that a fault in his character and intellect, not a fault by "doing nothing and waiting". He only did that when he sat on his ass in Harrenhal (which I personally see as a big mistake, Tywin lucked out that Renly was murdered by Stan's shadowbabe and Balon Greyjoy went north instead of sacking Lannisport).

Doran just sits around and lazily hopes a dragon will some day avenge him. You'd think he'd read up more on the situation and be more proactive in getting Viserys / Dany primed and enthousiastic for Dorne's cause. But all he does is wait to see when a dragon will fly over and automatically assume the dragon is interested to help Dorne.

In other words, despite his rep, he's taking a big gamble in thinking that Dany will help him out.

After reading the first page of hate, I came to make this post. I tip my hat to you, Lord Blackadder; a man as cunning as a fox who's just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University!

Patience is a virtue in politics, especially when your enemies have no patience whatsoever.

...but that's because sometimes, doing nothing is the best move you can make in the Game of Thrones.

Blackadder is a hero, the LF of his generation.

But Doran is unfortunately not so cunning. Doing nothing is indeed a choice and shit will play out in one way or anothing, but it's better to take a more active stance in getting what you want. Doran has no way of knowing how things will play out now that Aegon has arrived. Another Dance of Dragons is brewing and Dorne once again is at the sidelines watching on while others make their play and are #winning.

[SeanF]

Doran probably is now in a position to reap a rich reward for Dorne if he weighs in on the side of Aegon and/or Dany.

[Lummel]

... In terms of the Game he's doing poorly...

In the game of thrones you either win or you die. So staying alive is pretty good. If he survives to the end of the series with Dorne in it's current position that's a form of victory.