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Doran Martell, An Underestimated Force


ASRAIL

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Dorans (presumably) targets:

-revenge Elia and her children (tywin, clegane and lorch dead) - done

-protect Dorne- done

-new targaryan reign-Aegon or Dany - in motion

-secure te loyalty of your Bannermen-done

requirements to win:

-survive-done

-low profile-done

-find most efficiant way, lowest costs-done

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Come on. He did not avenge Elia or her kids at all. He let Tywin live a long, lordly life in his castle, and his death at the hands of Tyrion occured entirely due to happenstance.

The rest of his apparent wins are just the result of sitting back and letting the world pass him by.

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I cannot really understand why so many are angry at Doran for being passive. He is passive and has a lot of good reasons to be just that. Not only is Dorne the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms, Doran also had no potential allies at the time of Elia´s murder. If he had done anything at the time to avenge his sister, how many Dornish lives would have been lost?

" As the children splashed in the pools, Daenerys watched from amongst the orange trees, and a realization came to her. She could not tell the highborn from the low. Naked, they were only children. All innocent, all vulnerable, all deserving of long life, love, protection. ‘There is your realm,’ she told her son and heir, ‘remember them, in everything you do.’ My own mother said those same words to me when I was old enough to leave the pools. It is an easy thing for a prince to call the spears, but in the end the children pay the price. For their sake, the wise prince will wage no war without good cause, nor any war he cannot hope to win."- Doran, DwD

The reason why Doran is my favorite character is that aside from his intellect and strategic mind, he genuinely cares about his people, much more so than any high lord I have read about in this series, apart from Ned that is. I really loved how he found tranquility in the water gardens and watching the innocent children at play, it was a wonderful way to show his gentle nature. For the sake of his people, the innocent children whose protection was his responsibility, Doran stayed his woeful hand and patiently and carefully planned his vengeance instead of just barging off and ultimately dooming his entire nation.

Now, as for results, it is true that for 17 years of planning from a brilliant mind like Doran, he has not yet gotten very successful results. People also criticize the fact that it took so many years of planning, but keep in mind that at the time of Elia´s murder, Viserys would have been just 8 years old. Not only did he had to wait for an ideal opportunity that would secure the safety of his citizens in the endeavor, he also had to wait for many years for his plans for Arianne or any other of his children to come to fruition.

Of course, many of his careful preparations were destroyed by unseen-able events from no fault of his own.

Imagine playing a game of chess, or cyvasse if you will, with all of your pieces being endowed with free will. No matter how brilliant your strategic master-plan is, they can easily be undone by the vicissitudes of fate, which indeed happened in Doran´s case.

I do not know about all of you, but if I was the leader of an entire nation, with some 25-30 thousand lives to take care of, I would not be so eager to "call the spears" as many of the posters in this thread has implied that one should have done in Doran´s position.

“Until the Mountain crushed my brother’s skull, no Dornishmen had died in this War of the Five Kings,” the prince murmured softly, as Hotah pulled a blanket over him. “Tell me, Captain, is that my shame or my glory?"

I am very excited for what will happen with the Dornish story line and would as a matter of course hope for some glorious results for Doran, but what I will remember him for is not the things he accomplished or the things he had to accomplish them with, but rather his serene and calm personality as well as his philosophy that one should not be so eager to needlessly throw away human lives.

"In the end a gentle heart may be worth more than pride or valor." - Prince Doran Martell, A Dance with Dragons

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Dorne is still in no position to do anything.

But that a fault in his character and intellect, not a fault by "doing nothing and waiting". He only did that when he sat on his ass in Harrenhal (which I personally see as a big mistake, Tywin lucked out that Renly was murdered by Stan's shadowbabe and Balon Greyjoy went north instead of sacking Lannisport).

But Doran is unfortunately not so cunning. Doing nothing is indeed a choice and shit will play out in one way or anothing, but it's better to take a more active stance in getting what you want. Doran has no way of knowing how things will play out now that Aegon has arrived. Another Dance of Dragons is brewing and Dorne once again is at the sidelines watching on while others make their play and are #winning.

Why all the emphasis on "doing something" just for the sake of "doing something?" Tywin Lannister was VERY active - and look where that got him: dead, with his house in ruins. Robb Stark was very active, too - and he is also dead, with his house in ruins. The Greyjoys? VERY active, grabbing for whatever power they could when the time seemed ripe. Oh look! They're mostly dead, with their house in ruins. Give me some concerete examples of how "doing something" is better than doing nothing a la Doran Martell.

Doran (like Roose Bolton, arguably) has a Sun Tzu level of understanding: there's no point in taking action if it endangers you/your resources without offering a substantial chance of gain. Doran has watched all of his rivals crumble and implode - do you mean to tell me that there's no satisfaction to be gained from that? Heck, his foes have done a fine job of getting themselves killed (not too many Lannister kids left alive/safe in King's Landing) - why should he get in their way?

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I don't think anyone is angry that he's passive, they just don't believe he's good at the 'game'. Which he isn't. Because all he achieved he achieved by avoiding the game almost entirely.

So he sucks at the game because he can do better than all of the other players without even playing? Explain the logic underlying that conclusion, please.

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Once again Prince Imrahil says it better than I ever could.

Doran is playing Survivor, not the Game of Thrones. The Targaryens were the last house to win both games and that was only because they had dragons. When they went away, the Targs lost badly. Doran has excellent self awareness. He knows Dorne is not strong enough to rule the 7 kingdoms. Culturally it is very different from the rest of Westeros, different laws of succession for instance. The other kingdoms will never accept a Dornish King. So his best plan is to survive and hope that the natural ebbs and flows of life in Westeros will present House Martell with an opportunity to become significant again.

So Doran decides to play survivor and in the process probably enjoyed his long life much more than Tywin did, or Ned, or Robert. He sits by the pool all day watching his grand kids play and thinking things over carefully. Sounds much more enjoyable than ending up skewered by a board or shot in the gut by his own son. And house Martell is shaping up to be on of the most important in Westeros. Indeed by playing Survivor, House Martell may have a chance to get in the Game of Thrones at just the right moment.

Doran has never before had a chance to be important. And we don't know how exactly he'll react to Aegon at Storm's End. But if he does ally with Aegon, that could tip the balance against the Lannister/Tyrell alliance win Aegon the throne.

And to answer the Prince's Question. Here is who I think is winning right now if there were standings for the Game:

1. Lannisters (They hold the throne but are in freefall)

2. Tyrell (hold the queenship, have a large force in KL - but seem destined to be second at best)

3. Dorne - For all the reasons above... their time is now I think...

4. Ironborn (toss up between them and Stannis... Euron's got some big moves to make still)

5. Stannis: Has the underdog story line going right now... we'll see how that works out for him...

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I cannot really understand why so many are angry at Doran for being passive. He is passive and has a lot of good reasons to be just that. Not only is Dorne the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms, Doran also had no potential allies at the time of Elia´s murder. If he had done anything at the time to avenge his sister, how many Dornish lives would have been lost?

Now, as for results, it is true that for 17 years of planning from a brilliant mind like Doran, he has not yet gotten very successful results. People also criticize the fact that it took so many years of planning, but keep in mind that at the time of Elia´s murder, Viserys would have been just 8 years old. Not only did he had to wait for an ideal opportunity that would secure the safety of his citizens in the endeavor, he also had to wait for many years for his plans for Arianne or any other of his children to come to fruition.

I think you've inadvertently hit on the major reason people disagree that Doran Martell is "an underestimated force" (as this thread posits). If he came out and claimed that he was choosing the well-being of his subjects over "justice" for his murdered family members, I think that would be one thing. But he doesn't---he claims that he's trying (and succeeding) at doing both, and has been plotting to that dual end for many, many years. But while he's done well at the former, he's done pretty terribly at the latter, and it's the latter that people fault him for, not out of the idea that the readership judges that he should seek vengeance, but out of the idea that Doran himself clearly expresses to those around him that he wants, and is actively seeking, vengeance. Doran's plotting is considered crappy because readers look at what he says he wants, then we look at what he's actually done to achieve that goal, and the latter actions (make no alliances, gain no resources, just promise to support the Targs one day with your admiitedly-weak war abilities) are rather pathetic at achieving the former results (down with the Lannisters, up with the Targs!).

At the time of Elia's murder, he had few resources and no allies among the other Great Houses. That's all well and good---there was little that could be done about those deficiencies at the time, and trying for revenge at that particular time would clearly have been pointless suicide. But now, after over a decade and a half of supposedly brilliant plotting, he has . . . few resources and no allies among the other Great Houses! It's impossible to fault him for that situation at the time of the murders, but now?

I mean, look at Lord Manderly as a counterexample. The Freys/Boltons murdered his king and his son. At the time of the Red Wedding, trying to take unilateral revenge on either force (and certainly the combined force) would have been suicide. So what did Lord Manderly do? He mouthed pleasantries and pretended to be weak---just like Doran Martell did. But in secret, Lord Manderly was also making tangible efforts to ameliorate his weak spots: building up a fleet and his own army, making alliances with those noble families he'd need to oppose the Bolton/Frey alliance (House Glover, House Locke, Stannis, and who knows how many others), all while trying to get his hands on Rickon Stark. Manderly didn't find out about the location of the presumed heir and . . . sit back and quietly wait for the kid to grow up. He made actual efforts to get his hands on him. Manderly didn't sit around and ignore all of the powerful noble Houses he'd need to seek revenge: he's clearly been making alliances. Manderly didn't look at his resources as a fait accompli---he did everything he could to built them up, in secret.

Doran Martell, however, has had an absolute crapload of time to build the alliances needed to bolster Dornish military might in order to take on the Lannisters---yet Manderly gained more tangible results in what, a year? than Doran Martell gained in seventeen years. He had two unbetrothed children and an unmarried younger brother---yet he made no marriage alliances with other Great Houses other than House Lannister itself! He took in no noble children from other powerful, non-Dornish Westerosi families for fosterage, and sent none of his children to foster outside of Dorne. And he did none of these things, even though clearly his wife's disapproval wasn't that much of a driving force for him (where's she now living, again?), and despite the fact that he has to have realized that a combination of marriage and fosterage ties were what forged the alliance needed to take down the Targs in the first place. I struggle to find some sort of excuse for why he seemingly never bothered making any fosterage or marriage alliances to bolster Dorne's weak military numbers, and I honestly can't think of any logical reasons for that failure.

As of ADWD, he claims to be willing to throw Dornish military support behind Dany. And after over a decade and a half of plotting, the only thing Doran personally has to show for it is basically the exact same resources and alliances that he had back when Elia and her children were first murdered. He can't bring in any other Great Houses on the Targs' behalf, even though plenty of Houses disliked the Lannisters even from the start (the Starks, for example), because Doran's "take no part" policy has led to a situation wherein the groups most heavily disfavoring the Lannisters---the Riverlords and Northmen, for example---now want independence entirely. The War of the Five Kings was the perfect opportunity for House Martell to start harnessing anti-Lannister sentiment into a new push for a Targ restoration---but by sitting quietly in Dorne, a situation blossomed whereby anti-Lannister sentiment became anti-Iron Throne sentiment, thus making a Targ restoration harder, not easier.

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The War of the Five Kings was the perfect opportunity for House Martell to start harnessing anti-Lannister sentiment into a new push for a Targ restoration---but by sitting quietly in Dorne, a situation blossomed whereby anti-Lannister sentiment became anti-Iron Throne sentiment, thus making a Targ restoration harder, not easier.

Precisely. The Targaryens were not alone in fighting against Robert's Rebellion. Westeros is in complete chaos (politically speaking); any semi shrewd man would take advantage of the situation, especially considering the current climate greatly benefits Doran's aspirations....

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At the time of Elia's murder, he had few resources and no allies among the other Great Houses. That's all well and good---there was little that could be done about those deficiencies at the time, and trying for revenge at that particular time would clearly have been pointless suicide. But now, after over a decade and a half of supposedly brilliant plotting, he has . . . few resources and no allies among the other Great Houses! It's impossible to fault him for that situation at the time of the murders, but now?

Doran Martell, however, has had an absolute crapload of time to build the alliances needed to bolster Dornish military might in order to take on the Lannisters

I see zero ways for Doran to make any kind of steelclad alliance with any other houses while Robert was alive. Almost every other Great House had already a strong bond with Robert:

The head of the Stark family was his best friend

The head of the Arryn family was basicly a second father to him

The Tullys were strongly bonded with Roberts through Catelyn - Ned and Lysa - Jon

Storm's End (and Dragonstone) were held by Robert's family

The Lannisters were bonded through Robert's and Cersei's marriage

I see no way for Doran to break these bonds and gain an alliance with one of these Great Houses. Also Tyrells have a long lasting enmity with the Dornish (and the head of the Tyrell family, Mace, is very much against them for "crippling his son") so a strong alliance between them is out of the question.

What options are there left for Doran? The half-crazy Balon Greyjoy?

As for taking noble children to foster - children taken for this reason are preety much hostages (e.g. Theon) unless they are given to someone whom the family completely trusts. Since there was no strong bond (like Baratheon- Stark- Arryn -Tully) between the Dorne and another family, why would someone send a hostage to Doran in times of peace? In fact Doran does gets such a hostage (Myrcella) only when Tyrion wants to "bribe" the Dornish to help them in their war. In those 17(?) years of peace during Robert's reign why would anyone give Doran a free hostage?

As for his kids: He needed one to marry to a Targaryen and another to be his heir. Even if he did marry one of his children to someone from another great house, i still don't see how that would break the strong bonds between Robert Baratheon and the other houses.

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Dorans (presumably) targets:

-revenge Elia and her children (tywin, clegane and lorch dead) - done

He had nothing to do with the deaths or Tywin or Lorch. As for Clegane, that's not exactly impressive considering we don't know how "dead" he is, and it cost him his brother to avenge his sister.

-protect Dorne- done

From who? Dorne has faced no threats. Instead he's gone a step further and allied Dorne with the Lannisters. He's aided his own enemies.

-new targaryan reign-Aegon or Dany - in motion

I don't know how Doran gets any credit for that. He doesn't even know "Aegon" exists, and his attempt to ally with Dany is a utter failure.

-secure te loyalty of your Bannermen-done

Like the loyalty of his own daughter?

Again, let's look at what Doran has actually done. He signed a marriage pact for Arianne, and while he took no steps to help Viserys, he did decide to neglect Arianne as his heir. And when the exiled prince died after a decade of wandering and begging between cities, he acted as if it was a cruel twist of fate instead of a predictable outcome. His next plan is to send his son and five guys on their own to the other side of the world to get Dany. He gives Quentyn a piece of paper and no real instructions (like what to do if she says no/is already married/is as mad as her father, etc.). And surprise, he dies.

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He had nothing to do with the deaths or Tywin or Lorch. As for Clegane, that's not exactly impressive considering we don't know how "dead" he is, and it cost him his brother to avenge his sister.

They are dead aren't they? And you fortunatly forgot my requirements to win:

-survive-done

-low profile-done

-find most efficiant way, lowest costs-done

From who? Dorne has faced no threats. Instead he's gone a step further and allied Dorne with the Lannisters. He's aided his own enemies.

Lannister revenge, Tyrells, Iron Borns... Dorne isn't involved in the war

Like the loyalty of his own daughter?

YEs he should have isolated her with him in the watergardens, away from sunspear where she could learn to rule if she had paid attention.

In the water gardens all children of his bannermen life a few years, they love him, he won't have problems like the Starks (Bolton), or the Tullys (Riverlords at the siege of Riverrun) his men will fight to the end, a requirements to win

Again, let's look at what Doran has actually done. He signed a marriage pact for Arianne, and while he took no steps to help Viserys, he did decide to neglect Arianne as his heir. And when the exiled prince died after a decade of wandering and begging between cities, he acted as if it was a cruel twist of fate instead of a predictable outcome. His next plan is to send his son and five guys on their own to the other side of the world to get Dany. He gives Quentyn a piece of paper and no real instructions (like what to do if she says no/is already married/is as mad as her father, etc.). And surprise, he dies.

If he wanted to neglect Arianne she would have lived with him and not in Sun Spear where she was abe to learn by observation, without anybody noticing she was prepared as heir, and this was IMO a test of her wit

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They are dead aren't they? And you fortunatly forgot my requirements to win:

-survive-done

-low profile-done

-find most efficiant way, lowest costs-done

Waiting for someone to die isn't revenge. As for your made up requirements, you should add "actually accomplish any of your goals." And I wouldn't call a brother and a son low cost, especially for such little gain.

Lannister revenge, Tyrells, Iron Borns... Dorne isn't involved in the war

Lannister revenge? Why would they need revenge, when Dorne has been their ally? Meanwhile the Tyrells have been busy actually fighting, and when have the Ironborn ever bothered Dorne?

YEs he should have isolated her with him in the watergardens, away from sunspear where she could learn to rule if she had paid attention.

In the water gardens all children of his bannermen life a few years, they love him, he won't have problems like the Starks (Bolton), or the Tullys (Riverlords at the siege of Riverrun) his men will fight to the end, a requirements to win

Again, he already had problems with Arianne and her co-conspirators before even getting involved. There's no evidence he's managed some perfect loyalty.

If he wanted to neglect Arianne she would have lived with him and not in Sun Spear where she was abe to learn by observation, without anybody noticing she was prepared as heir, and this was IMO a test of her wit

Why would her preparation as heir need to be hidden? If anything it's the opposite-Arys thinks she had been left in charge of Sunspear, but she points out it was all done by Oberyn and others. There's a limit to observation, especially as you get older. Look at Winterfell, and how involved Bran is in ruling at age eight versus Robb at age fourteen. As for a test of wit, she figured out he wasn't planning for her to inherit and turned against him, so who failed that?

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Waiting for someone to die isn't revenge. As for your made up requirements, you should add "actually accomplish any of your goals." And I wouldn't call a brother and a son low cost, especially for such little gain.

Lannister revenge? Why would they need revenge, when Dorne has been their ally? Meanwhile the Tyrells have been busy actually fighting, and when have the Ironborn ever bothered Dorne?

What would the Lannister do if he acted openly against it, they and the Tyrells would create a stronger bond, united through their hate against Dorne, but as ally he can sow mistrust.

Again, he already had problems with Arianne and her co-conspirators before even getting involved. There's no evidence he's managed some perfect loyalty.

Why would her preparation as heir need to be hidden? If anything it's the opposite-Arys thinks she had been left in charge of Sunspear, but she points out it was all done by Oberyn and others. There's a limit to observation, especially as you get older. Look at Winterfell, and how involved Bran is in ruling at age eight versus Robb at age fourteen. As for a test of wit, she figured out he wasn't planning for her to inherit and turned against him, so who failed that?

She could have learn by herslef, what did she actually do to increase her house? Even Tyrion did that, he read books, using his skills. Arianne instead just nag about her faith and have fun with her cousin, oh and fuck a member of the KG. Instead taking the matter in her own hands, prepare herself to rule, read books etc. Act responsibe and independent like a princess of Dorne should, but she choose rebellion and recklesness

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What would the Lannister do if he acted openly against it, they and the Tyrells would create a stronger bond, united through their hate against Dorne, but as ally he can sow mistrust.

He allied with the Lannisters before the Tyrells did. The man who declared he had been working towards the downfall of Tywin Lannister for years was the first to ally with him. And again, he has done nothing to the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, that has all be the work of others.

She could have learn by herslef, what did she actually do to increase her house? Even Tyrion did that, he read books, using his skills. Arianne instead just nag about her faith and have fun with her cousin, oh and fuck a member of the KG. Instead taking the matter in her own hands, prepare herself to rule, read books etc. Act responsibe and independent like a princess of Dorne should, but she choose rebellion and recklesness

Saying "she could have taught herself" doesn't absolve him of failing to teach his heir (never mind there are things you can't learn from a book). I have no idea what "nagging about her faith" means. And she did take matters into her own hands. She recognized her father was planning to take Dorne from her, and wasn't doing anything about the Lannisters, so she conspired to act on her own initiative.

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What are the results of Doran's plotting so far? A dead brother, a dead son, an estranged wife, an agitated Dorne losing respect for their prince. I commend him for getting Dorne out of the WO5K but so far we have yet to see the positive results of his plots

This post really should have ended this thread. I too like Dorne and see where Doran is coming from but it is tough to argue with the results. By far his worst call was sending Quentyn and a group of 6 guys to woo Dany. I mean what a massive miscalculation.

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I think you've inadvertently hit on the major reason people disagree that Doran Martell is "an underestimated force" (as this thread posits). If he came out and claimed that he was choosing the well-being of his subjects over "justice" for his murdered family members, I think that would be one thing. But he doesn't---he claims that he's trying (and succeeding) at doing both, and has been plotting to that dual end for many, many years. But while he's done well at the former, he's done pretty terribly at the latter, and it's the latter that people fault him for, not out of the idea that the readership judges that he should seek vengeance, but out of the idea that Doran himself clearly expresses to those around him that he wants, and is actively seeking, vengeance. Doran's plotting is considered crappy because readers look at what he says he wants, then we look at what he's actually done to achieve that goal, and the latter actions (make no alliances, gain no resources, just promise to support the Targs one day with your admiitedly-weak war abilities) are rather pathetic at achieving the former results (down with the Lannisters, up with the Targs!).

At the time of Elia's murder, he had few resources and no allies among the other Great Houses. That's all well and good---there was little that could be done about those deficiencies at the time, and trying for revenge at that particular time would clearly have been pointless suicide. But now, after over a decade and a half of supposedly brilliant plotting, he has . . . few resources and no allies among the other Great Houses! It's impossible to fault him for that situation at the time of the murders, but now?

I mean, look at Lord Manderly as a counterexample. The Freys/Boltons murdered his king and his son. At the time of the Red Wedding, trying to take unilateral revenge on either force (and certainly the combined force) would have been suicide. So what did Lord Manderly do? He mouthed pleasantries and pretended to be weak---just like Doran Martell did. But in secret, Lord Manderly was also making tangible efforts to ameliorate his weak spots: building up a fleet and his own army, making alliances with those noble families he'd need to oppose the Bolton/Frey alliance (House Glover, House Locke, Stannis, and who knows how many others), all while trying to get his hands on Rickon Stark. Manderly didn't find out about the location of the presumed heir and . . . sit back and quietly wait for the kid to grow up. He made actual efforts to get his hands on him. Manderly didn't sit around and ignore all of the powerful noble Houses he'd need to seek revenge: he's clearly been making alliances. Manderly didn't look at his resources as a fait accompli---he did everything he could to built them up, in secret.

Doran Martell, however, has had an absolute crapload of time to build the alliances needed to bolster Dornish military might in order to take on the Lannisters---yet Manderly gained more tangible results in what, a year? than Doran Martell gained in seventeen years. He had two unbetrothed children and an unmarried younger brother---yet he made no marriage alliances with other Great Houses other than House Lannister itself! He took in no noble children from other powerful, non-Dornish Westerosi families for fosterage, and sent none of his children to foster outside of Dorne. And he did none of these things, even though clearly his wife's disapproval wasn't that much of a driving force for him (where's she now living, again?), and despite the fact that he has to have realized that a combination of marriage and fosterage ties were what forged the alliance needed to take down the Targs in the first place. I struggle to find some sort of excuse for why he seemingly never bothered making any fosterage or marriage alliances to bolster Dorne's weak military numbers, and I honestly can't think of any logical reasons for that failure.

As of ADWD, he claims to be willing to throw Dornish military support behind Dany. And after over a decade and a half of plotting, the only thing Doran personally has to show for it is basically the exact same resources and alliances that he had back when Elia and her children were first murdered. He can't bring in any other Great Houses on the Targs' behalf, even though plenty of Houses disliked the Lannisters even from the start (the Starks, for example), because Doran's "take no part" policy has led to a situation wherein the groups most heavily disfavoring the Lannisters---the Riverlords and Northmen, for example---now want independence entirely. The War of the Five Kings was the perfect opportunity for House Martell to start harnessing anti-Lannister sentiment into a new push for a Targ restoration---but by sitting quietly in Dorne, a situation blossomed whereby anti-Lannister sentiment became anti-Iron Throne sentiment, thus making a Targ restoration harder, not easier.

Comparing Doran to Manderly is really well done -- and makes Doran look far worse that I would have thought by comparison.

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Saying "she could have taught herself" doesn't absolve him of failing to teach his heir (never mind there are things you can't learn from a book). I have no idea what "nagging about her faith" means. And she did take matters into her own hands. She recognized her father was planning to take Dorne from her, and wasn't doing anything about the Lannisters, so she conspired to act on her own initiative.

Her father never planed that,he wanted her to be queen, he wanted to give not tkae, but she nerver proove herself trustworthy, she would have reveald his plots, she nearly did in the halls in Sun spear befor he silence her. And her initiative would have cause a war dorne never could win, stupid, stupid idea, even without teaching she should have known that.

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He allied with the Lannisters before the Tyrells did. The man who declared he had been working towards the downfall of Tywin Lannister for years was the first to ally with him. And again, he has done nothing to the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, that has all be the work of others.

Dorne joining Renly's side wouldn't have changed things. By staying out of it, Doran preserved his own army and gave himself insurance in case the Lannisters or Stannis won. He doesn't know about Shadow Babies, so he probably expects Renly and the Tyrells to steamroll the Lannisters. And remember, he holds Baratheon responsible for Elia's death as well as the more direct culprits. If he joins the Baratheon/Tyrell alliance against the Lannisters, he'll be putting a different branch of the family responsible on the Iron Throne. Why should he send a single Dornishman to accomplish that, when it appears likely to happen even if they never cross the Prince's Pass? Whereas by staying out of it, he gained a valuable hostage in Myrcella and if Renly and the Tyrells win, they may not be happy with Dorne, but they aren't likely to go to war over Doran doing nothing. And a Tyrell-dominated Renly is unlikely to become a friend of Dorne no matter what Doran tries.

His number one priority was always keeping Dorne whole and he's done that. His plotting to marry Ariane and Viserys, was along the same lines. If the oppurtunity presented itself to carry that through, he'd laid the groundwork. He could raise Dorne for Viserys, if crazy pants was able to put a following together that might be able to cross the Narrow Sea and join with Dorne to have a fighting chance against the rest of the realm. If not, he'd wait some more. Maybe he'd wait forever and it would never happen. I think Doran was at peace with that.

We also don't know the extent of scheming with Illyrio with regard to Viserys and Dany. Remember, they moved around from place to place, but they didn't starve, weren't sold into brothels, etc. That could have been just the elites of the Free Cities finding them potentially useful or it could have been Doran supporting them indirectly from afar. That's speculation, of course.

The real bottom line with Doran, I think, is that he was willing to forego his own vengeance for the good of his people. How many other high lords can you say that of?

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