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US politics - Halloween edition


IheartTesla

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Stephen Colbert just offered Trump $1M, to any charity of his choice, if Trump would let him dunk his balls in his mouth.

I'd be worried about catching something.

This voting machine thing is starting to make big waves. Slate has a piece on it today as well. I wonder why it's catching on now but didn't before.

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I forgot all about the Trump nonsense. I googled his name to find out what the deal is/was and appropriately enough the first result was called "Donald Trump's Racist Hassling of Barack Obama".

Now that's silly, Donald Trump isn't Racist, he's just the concerned citizen who puts in a lot of effort to make sure the wrong sorts don't join the country club, we have those rules for a reason you know, they should really be kept up.
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I'd be worried about catching something.

This voting machine thing is starting to make big waves. Slate has a piece on it today as well. I wonder why it's catching on now but didn't before.

Corruption fatigue?

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Conspiracy time! The most plausible explanation I have seen yet for Romney refusing to release his tax returns. Is there really any chance that Mitt lived in his kid's unfinished basement?

I saw this a few days ago, but only bring it up because while Romney can't stand up to Trumps shenanigans asking O for every possible record he can think of, Romney still wont release those returns, which has become a non-issue to most people I know, but is still bugging me.

This makes me bitter. I was once charged with vote fraud under similar circumstances. I was forced to submit my tax records, all my banking records, including the check register, my utility bills, phone records, and a list of friends and family, including any women I had slept with in my bed. All those people were subpoenaed. The process server refused to deliver to my father who was dying of cancer at the time. The women I had dated were stricken that they might have to testify in court about their sexual practices. My neighbors were all questioned

I had to take the stand and testify where I kept my underwear, what colors, which drawer, my socks and my shoes. How many women had I slept with, and where did I keep my condoms. I would come home from work to find people staring in my windows.

And all for nothing, since the Missouri Supreme Court had ruled long ago in the Kit Bond case that every person gets to name one place as their domicile, and only one place, regardless of where they may sleep at any given time. I won in court and I won the election, but the investigation had pretty much ruined any possibility of my being effective.

At the least, Romney should have to show which address he filed as his tax residence. I wonder how that guy In Indiana(?) who was recently charged for pretty much the same thing feels about it.

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I'd be worried about catching something.

This voting machine thing is starting to make big waves. Slate has a piece on it today as well. I wonder why it's catching on now but didn't before.

Did you ever read the Harper's article? I think that's where it started. If the issue sold well, then other outlets will cover it. Also, there's a bit of it devoted to calling out other media outlets for not covering it.

Can't say this is an area of marital agreement. Someone was cute enough to whip out the aluminum foil to make me a hat this morning....

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For a great visual representation of Romney's EC challenge take a look at this post.

Note that each of those scenarios is a narrow path to 270, and Iowa is the only state repeated in any of the four. But the thing is that Obama has a fighting chance in every single state on there.

Also, does anyone know if it's true that polling systematically underestimates the Hispanic turnout because they don't poll in Spanish? I read that somewhere earlier suggesting it was part of Reid's surprisingly big win in 2010 in Nevada, but I was surprised to hear the suggestion that polling is that unsophisticated.

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Also, does anyone know if it's true that polling systematically underestimates the Hispanic turnout because they don't poll in Spanish? I read that somewhere earlier suggesting it was part of Reid's surprisingly big win in 2010 in Nevada, but I was surprised to hear the suggestion that polling is that unsophisticated.

Somewhat. Hispanics that don't speak English are usually a small part of the electorate though in most states. Nate Silver thinks it may be worth a point or two each in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona.

It was part of the Reid's enormous overperforming the polls, along with the polls just undercounting Hispanic votes in general, the cellphone-only thing (a huge issue in a state with as transient a population as Nevada), and Reid having one of the best ground games in the country.

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Somewhat. Hispanics that don't speak English are usually a small part of the electorate though in most states. Nate Silver thinks it may be worth a point or two each in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona.

One of my first reactions when I read it was realizing with some embarrassment that I have no idea what % of Hispanic-American citizens only speak Spanish.

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According to TIME poll, Obama leads 60-30 in early voting and 45-45 in not-yet-voted in Ohio, giving him that 5 point lead. While the combination may be more prone to error than the first number, it increases confidence in Obama's Ohio firewall. And I think Democrat enthusiasm will be just fine in battleground states.

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I am glad to have Fez and Trisk crunching numbers for us. I don't have much head for that stuff. :(

Fez is doing more of the heavy lifting, to be sure. But I do find the map fascinating every election. Can't really say why.

I wonder what the scene is like inside the cable news places right now. They always need to be ready for election night, but this year they really need to be ready for it. It's going to be a challenge to game out all of the scenarios as one of them eventually plays out.

I mean, if Obama were to win Virginia and Ohio relatively early in the night, it wouldn't be so tough, but if Romney sweeps Florida, Virginia and North Carolina early and Ohio is too-close-to-call, things will get really interesting with Iowa and Colorado going later into the night.

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If Romney sweeps Florida, Virginia and North Carolina early and Ohio is too-close-to-call, things will get really interesting with Iowa and Colorado going later into the night.

I think more likely would be both Virginia and Ohio are both very close, and so it's a waiting game to call either one, as well as for the Western States to start coming in. If Virginia gets called for Romney relatively early (say, with less than half the votes counted), then I think we can start calling Romney ol' 45.

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