Eddard's Letter

[A wilding]

2) Ned would have never made it to the Wall. ...

Ned was a man of honour who supported the NW. Once he had sworn to take the Black, and in front of the huge crowd at Baelor's Sept, I really don't see him going back on that promise under any circumstances whatsoever. Even if he was tempted to, that would make him a deserter in the eyes of many, and we know how strong the tradition of dealing with NW deserters is in the North.

[mcb]

Very off topic, but it's remarkable that Varys convinced Cersei to allow Ned to take the black. Consider:

1) As far as Cersei knew, Ned was the only person alive aside from her and Jaime that knew the truth about her children (of course, we as readers knew about Stannis, but Cersei didn't at that time). She's risking everything based on Varys' words and her impression of Ned Stark being a man of honor.

...and on the knife she still holds to Sansa's neck.

2) Ned would have never made it to the Wall. In order to get there, he and his accompanying party (which would have presumably been sizable) would have had to pass through the Stark-friendly Riverlands, the Stark-fortified Neck, and the entirety of the Stark-friendly North including directly past Winterfell in order to reach the Wall, which Starks have manned for 8000 years.

...or there's the sea route. The one Janos Slynt took. Also, there are multiple instances where the victor offers the defeated taking the black as an option. The most recently, Jaime and the Blackfish. "And what if he never gets to the Wall, but goes back to fight me another day?" is always a valid concern (no matter: Ned, Brynden Tully, or Dornish kings opposing the Rhoynar Invasion). We need to assume that sending them to the Wall simply works somehow. Maybe they say their vows before the departure, and already are considered black brethren going home (and deserters if they didn't reach the Wall)?

[zodiarkslayer]

The Key to the "Letter" is Varys. Once Ned was thrown in the dungeon, I think he knew very well what was going to happen. So did Varys. The reason he visits Ned in the first place must be some Info he wants to gather from Ned before he dies. Or he wants to confirm a theory he has had for some time.

After all Varys plots to seat a Targaryen on the Iron throne again. HIS Targaryen. At this point it doesn't matter if young Griff is an imposter or not. But EVERY other Targ out there would be a threat to the claim.

So even assuming Varys heard of what happened at the Tower of Joy, he would still have no proof of Jons parentage. And he couldn't get proof over all those years, since Ned was too high profile to approach, Howland Reed is protected by the crannogmen (or Varys is unaware of his part) and Benjen is out of reach at the Wall (Benjen must know of Jons parentage, he's Neds Brother after all).

So finally Varys has an opportunity to get proof and means to get it (Sansa as leverage). He wants to confirm wether Jon is a Targ or not.

Assuming Ned is also aware of Varys' ambition or doesn't trust him at all, it is clear that the content of the letter is either meaningless or simple in a fashion that it would not raise Varys' suspicion.

So here my guess. The letter reads as follows: "Winter is coming."

The only question I haven't figured out yet, is who is he writing to...

[Fat King Robert]

The Key to the "Letter" is Varys. Once Ned was thrown in the dungeon, I think he knew very well what was going to happen. So did Varys. The reason he visits Ned in the first place must be some Info he wants to gather from Ned before he dies. Or he wants to confirm a theory he has had for some time.

After all Varys plots to seat a Targaryen on the Iron throne again. HIS Targaryen. At this point it doesn't matter if young Griff is an imposter or not. But EVERY other Targ out there would be a threat to the claim.

So even assuming Varys heard of what happened at the Tower of Joy, he would still have no proof of Jons parentage. And he couldn't get proof over all those years, since Ned was too high profile to approach, Howland Reed is protected by the crannogmen (or Varys is unaware of his part) and Benjen is out of reach at the Wall (Benjen must know of Jons parentage, he's Neds Brother after all).

So finally Varys has an opportunity to get proof and means to get it (Sansa as leverage). He wants to confirm wether Jon is a Targ or not.

Assuming Ned is also aware of Varys' ambition or doesn't trust him at all, it is clear that the content of the letter is either meaningless or simple in a fashion that it would not raise Varys' suspicion.

So here my guess. The letter reads as follows: "Winter is coming."

The only question I haven't figured out yet, is who is he writing to...

It could be meant for Howland Reed, as a code or something. "Howland, take care of my children, Jon as well".

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

Exactly, if Ned were to write such a letter about Jon, he wouldn't reveal the info, he would simple write to Howland.I wonder if Reed sending his children to Winterfell in ACOK might be related to receiving such as letter from Ned.

[wolfmaid7]

I can't see that letter being sent to Howland for the reason that there has been no attempt by him or any of his children to make it or even have contact with the wall. Hence i believe form Mormont's reaction and his reply to Jon about any letter about his father is proof enough that he did send it to the Wall

[Fat King Robert]

I can't see that letter being sent to Howland for the reason that there has been no attempt by him or any of his children to make it or even have contact with the wall. Hence i believe form Mormont's reaction and his reply to Jon about any letter about his father is proof enough that he did send it to the Wall

Could be. It could also just be the letter about Eddards execution. One thing is certain: Howland Reed is THE character I'm most interested in at the moment. It would seem he's a person who holds many answers, I hope Martin is kind enough to introduce us to him in TWoW.

[Goldhand the Just]

Just finished my re read of this chapter and I don't believe that Ned wrote any letters. I don't believe that he bought all the for the realm stuff Varys was giving him, although it is a possibility, I don't thinks it happened.

[wolfmaid7]

While it is a speculation i ho back to Lord commander Mormont's reactions to Jon's question about a letter "about" his father. I will look for that and post it but from that one can make a strong case that he knew Jon was not Ned's son.

[Bacon Dragon the Crispy]

If Ned did write a letter it would have been to his bannerman Howland Reed. Ned didnt trust Varys so he wouldnt have openly revealed Jons secrets. However a letter to Reed who was present and the only adult survivor of ToJ could have been coded "Howland look out for my children and dont forget Jon, promise me..."

See what I did there? Howland would have picked up on it and ensured Jon was told in the right way and thats not by Ravenmail.

This has been my belief all along.

[MIGR]

I have my doubts that Ned acutually wrote the letter. He didn't trust Varys either, so why put something in writing and give it to someone he does not trust. I wouldn't do it... even if I was under the impression that I were going to the wall.

[Bacon Dragon the Crispy]

I think the letter in question is simply the letter given to Yoren that explains he is to take Ned and Gendry with him to the wall. In ACOK Yoren explains this and Varys delivered it to him..

[Porter88]

Jon is the true heir to the iron throne. If he has in fact not been killed by his nightwatch brothers in a dance of dragons, he must find the truth to his past and claim his destiny.

Check out the blog. www.tritaniumtimes.blogspot.com

[Gendels Children]

Very interesting

The answer is really dependent on what Varys' true motives are. We don't really know for sure if Varys is a Targ man, an exclusively Blackfyre man, or just a guy trying to put this boy Aegon on the throne. I suspect Varys will keep the information to himself unless all other roads are blocked.

But it would be interesting if Varys is the one to reavel L+R=J

Nice catch.

ive read a theory that Aegon is Illyrio's own son, since he speaks of his dead wife who was of Valyrian blood, making her look rather Targ-y. and we all know Varys is old friends with Illyrio, if its true he may certainly be one sided in making sure its Aegon who take the throne. in which case people finding out that Jon may have Targ blood is not going to be the best of help to his cause. but we don't even know IF Ned did write this letter, I always assumed he didn't. I think the thought was meant to be just another lil hint for us

[Maegor the Cuddly]

I always presumed that the letter was some heartfelt "I'm sorry about all this" to Catelyn and his kids. Though the theory is interesting...

[LyannaStargaryen]

I don't think Ned wrote a letter. Or, if he had, it would have appeared somewhere by now.

And honestly, if all these other people know R+L=J that people have speculated - Benjen, Aemon, Varys, Mormont - it wouldn't be much of a secret.

If Benjen knew, which is possible, I cannot see him confiding a huge Stark family secret to Lord Commander Mormont. For what purpose? And by the time Ned was in danger at KL, Benjen was already lost north of the wall.

I also don't see Rhaegar corresponding with Master Aemon and just dropping little hints about Lyanna and their child.

Varys can put two and two together, I agree. But just because he was Master of Whisperers doesn't make him omniscient. He'd have to know that Rhaegar hid Lyanna in the ToJ, and we don't have any evidence to support that. Ned seems to be the only person who knew where to find his sister, and its unclear how he did (and when he got that information). And since Ned returns from ToJ to Winterfell with Lyanna's bones/body and Jon, without going to KL, I don't know that Varys is looking at the bastard of Ned very closely.

If R+L=J, the reason he has stayed safe is because the information is a secret.

[Porter88]

I wish Ned had had that chance to speak with Jon about his mother. I also hope that it gets resolved at some point in the last two books.

www.tritaniumtimes.blogspot.com for more analysis of the books.

[siknes]

I think to a big extent Ned did trust Varys a little . Why i say this because he "asked" him if he could take a letter out for him. Why ask if you didn't trust a little. I'm saying maybe Varys did convince Ned that he " serves the realm and he's doing it for the children". I mean what better way to convince Ned was to say i'm going to read your letter. Reverse psychology .I don't know, i just feel there is something there with that, whether he wrote it or didn't is left hanging to me.

Ned did figure out or suspected it was Varys, after seeing him in he goaler outfit, that Varys is responsible for Gendry going to the Smith, watching out for him.

[siknes]

Now for my crack pot theory. If Eddard did write a letter to Jon at the wall. Who would have been his point of contact,if say Mormont got it would he keep that knowledge from Jon until he was ready. I recall this dialogue

“King,” the bird said again.

“I think he means for you to have a crown, my lord.”

“The realm has three kings already, and that’s two too many for my liking.” Mormont stroked the raven under the beak with a finger, but all the while his eyes never left Jon Snow.

I may be wrong in my deduction but did the raven's eyes never leave Jon or did Mormont's eyes never leave Jon? if it was Mormont what would be the reason for that little tidbit by GRRM. Unless we the readers are to infer that Mormont has some info about Jon.Mormont can be seen as a mentor to Jon and certain things he said to Jon made me think. Craster's keep- I'll look for the exact part- when Jon didn't follow some order- can't remember which. But here's the dialouge to that effect.

Mormont:

Do you want to lead someday?”

Jon “yes".

Mormont: “Then learn how to follow.”

Some may say grooming for command of the NW but again maybe Mormont knew something and was just preparing Jon.

It's a crackpot i know awww i hate what this world does to the mind :bang:

Good theory. Mormont was a sworn house of Stark, and I am sure they knew each other well, Ned just let Jorah be once he fled Westeros, he could have had Robert have someone sent to hunt him down, for breaking the King's law(selling slaves). The Mormont family are Wargs also (the daughter tells Asha that they Warg and fuck real bears as a joke. But there is truth in it. Mormont's raven seems to have more of a vocabulary, plus the pot scene where it comes to Jon, after Mormont is gone,Warged into his Raven. Just came to me, but it makes sense.

[siknes]

I don't think Ned wrote a letter. Or, if he had, it would have appeared somewhere by now.

And honestly, if all these other people know R+L=J that people have speculated - Benjen, Aemon, Varys, Mormont - it wouldn't be much of a secret.

If Benjen knew, which is possible, I cannot see him confiding a huge Stark family secret to Lord Commander Mormont. For what purpose? And by the time Ned was in danger at KL, Benjen was already lost north of the wall.

I also don't see Rhaegar corresponding with Master Aemon and just dropping little hints about Lyanna and their child.

Varys can put two and two together, I agree. But just because he was Master of Whisperers doesn't make him omniscient. He'd have to know that Rhaegar hid Lyanna in the ToJ, and we don't have any evidence to support that. Ned seems to be the only person who knew where to find his sister, and its unclear how he did (and when he got that information). And since Ned returns from ToJ to Winterfell with Lyanna's bones/body and Jon, without going to KL, I don't know that Varys is looking at the bastard of Ned very closely.

If R+L=J, the reason he has stayed safe is because the information is a secret.

Varys is a god damn wizard, Illyrio states it, and Tyrion finally realizes it during his escape, That is Folly my lord-to go kill your father-he wanted it the whole time because Cercei would blow things up. I do not know his total powers are but mind transference (reads the minds of his little birds) the dark magic Cat was speaking of at the whore house when Varys knew her exact moves to a T.