The Great Northern Conspiracy, Reexamined

[Summer is Ending]

Stannis had less than two thousand men. His only chance was coming down on the wildlings like a bag of hammers while they were spread out and unsuspecting.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Or he could have waited to find out what the terms were. Had he done that he would have found out that his 2000 men weren't needed, and that Godry "the Craven Giantslayer" Farring was less then useless for the task at hand.

[The Sunset King]

On the subject of how the religious issues may be handled, here are some statements by Stannis in ADWD:

“Half my army is made up of unbelievers, Stannis had replied. “I will have no burnings. Pray harder.”

The burnings he carried out in ADWD were for capital offenses rather than arbitrary sacrifices of allies.

Also: (TWOW sample chapter spoilers)

Asha: "Not all your men worship the same god." Stannis: "I am aware of this. I am not the fool my brother was."

"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts." Considering his reaction to Jon's massive help in exposing the Arnolf treachery, Stannis may not just suddenly place religious demands on his allies once Winterfell is won.

The sparrow movement is a critial factor in any analysis of the religious situation of Westeros at the present time. There are a few factors which annul the possibility that all of the Riverlords would back either Stannis or Jon en masse until Aegon and the sparrows have been dealt with in some fashion (though, undoubtedly, many/most would back either of those two normally):

1. The treachery and interest based method of operation exhibited by many of those that deserted to the Lannisters and may soon desert the lions for a putative dragon. 2. The fact that a large number of the sparrows were recruited from the Riverlands, as well as the influx of militia members into areas like Harrenhal. If the sparrows back Aegon, there will be enormous religious pressure for lords to accept Aegon as their sovereign. 3. The perception that Aegon is Rhaegar's true and legitimate heir, plus the propaganda that Varys will be issuing in his favor (a great many will believe he is the genuine deal).

Those factors will likely push some of the lords in the southern part of the Riverlands toward Aegon (at least near Harrenhal). This may bring the Brotherhood and some others into conflict with the pro-Aegon elites and the sparrows.

Stannis did not spend time trying to convert the lords of the Stormlords to the red religion before marching on King's Landing. It is dubious that he will do so in other places, considering the way that would exacerbate the threat of a southern king backed by this zealous High Septon.

[Summer is Ending]

Or he could have waited to find out what the terms were. Had he done that he would have found out that his 2000 men weren't needed, and that Godry "the Craven Giantslayer" Farring was less then useless for the task at hand.

This coming south with their tails between their legs has nothing to do with submitting or they would have tried to parlay with the NW in the first place. They have no interest in giving up their ways. They were running from the Others but still wanted to be raiders, warriors, pillagers. If the Magnar had succeeded in opening the gate there'd have been no discussions, no negotiations, they'd have butchered every crow they caught and swarmed through the north like a horde of locusts. They had to be beaten before they would surrender.

This talk of treating with them is silly. Mance would do nothing but laugh at the idea of submitting to a handful of knights. Treating with the enemy, making parlay. These all have to come from at least some postion of strength. Stannis had nothing but the element of surprise.

What Stannis did was his only play.

“So we know,” said Mance. “We know how few you were, when you stopped the turtle. We know how many came from Eastwatch. We know how your supplies have dwindled. Pitch, oil, arrows, spears. Even your stair is gone, and that cage can only lift so many. We know. And now you know we know.”

...

“Go back and tell them to open their gate and let us pass. If they do, I will give them the horn, and the Wall will stand until the end of days.”

...

“Whose laws? The laws of Winterfell and King’s Landing?” Mance laughed. “When we want laws we’ll make our own. You can keep your king’s justice too, and your king’s taxes. I’m offering you the horn, not our freedom. We will not kneel to you.”

This is Mance's idea of parlay. Give us all we want or we'll destroy you.

Again, what Stannis did was his only play.

[Runaway Penguin]

Not to forget he knew nothing of the pseudoparley (actualy a plot ot get Jon killed). Slynt came to the Wall before Stannis and rest of men who were with Marsh came from the Shadowtower. All he knew was that Wall was in danger and he has exactly two weapons in his favour: Moment of surprise and heavy cavalry. And the bonus for cavalry was again from surprise more than of numbers or strength.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

@summer is ending

the terms were offered to the NW even though they were weak. As i recall the parley went like this, Mance says, "you're fucked, we're coming, you have 3 days" Jon thinks "wow, we're fucked. i wonder if my brothers will accept these terms?" Stannis and Nights Watchmen emerge from the North, Northeast, and East attacking a poorly defended largely civilian encampment needlessly slaughtering non-combatants. Stannis could have accepted the terms without having to actually treat w/ the Mance himself. Slynt sent Jon, therefore it's seems possible to act through a proxy in such a situation.

@Runaway Penguin

Stannis came from eastwatch by the sea not the shadow tower. he likely sent Slynt and Thorne ahead as part of his surprise attack. It would not surprise me if Stannis wanted Slynt and Thorne to be the ones who parleyed w/ Mance, for much the same reason they sent Jon. Stannis has no reason to like Slynt, a Lannister ally, who lacks any sense of honor or duty, nor Thorne who was sent to the Wall for fighting Bob's Rebellion. But that's just speculation on my part.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Don't we also have Jeyne Westerling in play, perhaps with Robb Stark's child? If the Jon Stark legitimization theory is true (and it is compelling) then Jeyne's situation would have to be at face value since it seems pointless to create a will establishing Jon as heir with a legitimate blood heir on the way, as it were.

As fond as I am of the Westerling-is-pregnant theory, I'm going to have to throw in the towel on that one after reading the app. However, I still think it's quite possible that Jeyne herself got out with Brynden, perhaps under the assumption that as the dowager queen, she herself would marry Jon.

[Faint]

There seems to be several complications with the whole idea of the North acting in unity to resume Robb's cause. The first is that Robb's will was written under the assumption that Bran and Rickon were dead. That was and is not true of course, and now Manderly knows about it and could have easily informed the rest of the houses. Likewise, the possibility is there that the contents of Robb's will were disseminated to the Northern houses in much the same manner. If that's true, then the Northern houses have an important decision on their hands.

They could pick Jon or Rickon, or they can defer the decision until they find out whether Jon will accept and/or whether Rickon is alive, or they might even want to have Jon as regent while Rickon grows up. In any case, none of this accounts for the possibility that word comes down that Jon is dead, which could come either before or after confirmation that Rickon is alive, which itself screws up things because if it comes before confirmation that Rickon is alive, then the North is just bidding its time again. And this is even after making the big assumption that all the Northern houses are in agreement with each other and want to continue with Robb's war, which is no certainty given the hostages in play for some of the houses and how damaging the war has already been to them.

In other words, there are too many moving parts and too many known unknowns to try to formulate a coherent theory out of this whole mess.

If I had to take a guess though, I imagine the Boltons will be defeated but what remains of Stannis' own men will be further decimated in the process. At that point, the fate of Rickon will still be unknown. In the meantime, word will come down that Jon has been assassinated at the Wall and, possibly, that the fate of Shireen and Selyse is unknown, with many of Stannis' men at the Wall killed and the Wildings marching south. What then?

[E-Ro]

As i said, had Stannis parlayed he would know all of this. And there's no reason to think Stannis didn't know of Mance's request to parlay. Considering he attacked during the parlay, which was arranged by a contingent of brothers from eastwatch. It's hard to believe that Stannis didn't plan to take Mance by surprise during the negotiations. I never said he knew this for certain i'm saying he could have found it out had he not planned a treacherous attack instead.

Why should he parlay with mance? A known oathbreaker, why wouldnt stannis come down hard and fast on him. He took him by suprise and hit his army in three different places. Not sure what the issue with this is. How is the attack treacherous? Stannis had no deal with mance.

And even if Stannis didn't know of the offer of a parlay and of the terms that were offered in the parlay, his decisions after capturing Mance reveal how little he cares about the real enemy/battle and how obsessed he is w/ the game of thrones. His conscious and deliberate decision to burn "mance" instead of allying w/ him to bind the wildlings to his cause, and make use of his knowledge of the Others and the wights, i.e. the real fight, indicates where his priorities are. He would rather win-over some weakened northern lords and improve his position in the game of throne/westrosi politics though a public spectacle than actually focus on and win the coming battle w/ the Others. It's very clear throughout the texts Stannis will not bend on the issue of his singular claim to the Iron Throne and by rights all of Westeros as he's indicated in his own words:

“Good,” said Stannis, “for I will suffer no other kings in Westeros. Have you signed the grant?

I would say executing mance binds the wildlings to his cause just as well. In fact I doubt a mance in full power would be helpful at all south of the wall, the wildlings dont follow westerosi law they find rape acceptable no way the free folk and westerosi live side by side happily. And mance has no knowledge of how to beat the white walkers, thats the whole reason why he is running south to escape them. And as I said before on the subject of another king, if he has no choice then that makes the decision easy.

Stannis has refused to ally w/ Renly, Robb, and Mance because of his singular obsession w/ the Iron Throne and his absolute claim to the Seven Kingdoms. In Cressen's prologue he advised Stannis to ally w/ the North or w/ the Vale and not to fight his brother. Stannis refused and indicated he would crush any recalcitrant lords/kingdoms. In Cat's PoV outside of Storm's End she tries to convince Stannis (and Renly) to stop wasting time and ally with one another and/or someone else - i.e. Robb. Stannis flatly refused and decided to threaten Robb and killed his brother w/ a shadow baby. The fact that Stannis never fought the Independent North doesn't mean he's tolerated it. He has demanded fealty of the North on the basis that he is the King of all of Westeros the North included. He is actively seeking to legally/politically destroy Robb's Kingdom by demanding the North kneel to him or else. If anyone refuses him he decides he must crush them, it's kind of a pattern.

Of those you listed the only one that wanted an aliance with him was renly in return for fealty. Thats like dany giving away drogon for the unsullied, its unacceptable. And I never said he tolerated robbs kingdom, merely that if the northmen are in a position to help fight winter and put him on the throne in return for independence he will most likely do it.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

And this is even after making the big assumption that all the Northern houses are in agreement with each other and want to continue with Robb's war, which is no certainty given the hostages in play for some of the houses and how damaging the war has already been to them.

While I agree that the Jon-or-Rickon thing might get dicey, I think the northerners' willingness (in general) to keep fighting for their own sovereignty is pretty clear. Wylis Manderly's no longer a hostage, and while the Greatjon is, that's the only reason Whoresbane is playing nice the Boltons. You don't join up with someone like Stannis to flush out treacherous Lannister collaborators if you've decided to cut your losses and keep your head down at this point.

If the northerners have decided to give up the whole "independence" thing, I don't see any evidence for it.

[Faint]

While I agree that the Jon-or-Rickon thing might get dicey, I think the northerners' willingness (in general) to keep fighting for their own sovereignty is pretty clear. Wylis Manderly's no longer a hostage, and while the Greatjon is, that's the only reason Whoresbane is playing nice the Boltons. You don't join up with someone like Stannis to flush out treacherous Lannister collaborators if you've decided to cut your losses and keep your head down at this point.

If the northerners have decided to give up the whole "independence" thing, I don't see any evidence for it.

I think the question of their own independence actually plays a small role in their thinking right now. It's a question that can easily be deferred given the chaos going on in the south and the onset of winter. At this point, I think their main concern is getting rid of the Boltons and killing all communications between them and anybody south of the Neck, while at the same time finding a Stark to rally under.

The Riverlands? I am highly doubtful they care at all anymore by now. The Tullys are the gangrenous arm that has been chopped off. If anything, I think the Wildlings will be their next great concern after they have ditched Stannis by making clear they won't be supporting any continental war against the Iron Throne.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think the question of their own independence actually plays a small role in their thinking right now. It's a question that can easily be deferred given the chaos going on in the south and the onset of winter. At this point, I think their main concern is getting rid of the Boltons and killing all communications between them and anybody south of the Neck, while at the same time finding a Stark to rally under.

The Riverlands? I am highly doubtful they care at all anymore by now. The Tullys are the gangrenous arm that has been chopped off. If anything, I think the Wildlings will be their next great concern after they have ditched Stannis by making clear they won't be supporting any continental war against the Iron Throne.

... Except that the case has been made in this thread that the riverlords are making their own moves and that there are still lines of communication between the North and the Riverlands. And we also don't have a Riverlands POV anymore, and haven't since Catelyn died and Brienne left — who's to say what they really think? So based on the clues that have already been brought up, 'fraid I'll have to disagree with this, too.

[Tagganaro]

Aren't all the Northern prisoners about to be released/freed? Jaime commanded the Frey to go return home and release them, and I imagine UnCat is about to find that out, additionally it might already be known because I believe Tom O' Sevens was in the room when Jaime commanded the Frey to go release them. So I don't think hostages will be a problem.

The larger problem that was touched upon is that Rickon is still alive, as well as Sansa and Arya (I'm not counting Bran at this point, because I just don't see him returning in time to ever play a role in that kind of way).

But again, I'd say that as long as the Others don't make their move soon and are widely known to be the real enemy, the North is going to be most concerned with A) Getting rid of Bolton/Frey, and then B: Following through on Robb's cause/Gaining independence from the IT. I definitely don't see any room for C) Helping Stannis win the IT so he can rule over them.

[Faint]

... Except that the case has been made in this thread that the riverlords are making their own moves and that there are still lines of communication between the North and the Riverlands. And we also don't have a Riverlands POV anymore, and haven't since Catelyn died and Brienne left — who's to say what they really think? So based on the clues that have already been brought up, 'fraid I'll have to disagree with this, too.

Frankly, I don't see it at all. Jaime's last chapter demonstrably showed the current status of the Riverland lords. And, in case anyone has forgotten, Edmure Tully is a hostage, one of many, a list that includes the sons and daughters of the most troublesome Riverland houses.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Frankly, I don't see it at all. Jaime's last chapter demonstrably showed the current status of the Riverland lords. And, in case anyone has forgotten, Edmure Tully is a hostage, one of many, a list that includes the sons and daughters of the most troublesome Riverland houses.

Agree to disagree then. Talking in circles isn't productive.

[Ingelheim]

The North rules.

[Summer is Ending]

@summer is ending

the terms were offered to the NW even though they were weak. As i recall the parley went like this, Mance says, "you're fucked, we're coming, you have 3 days" Jon thinks "wow, we're fucked. i wonder if my brothers will accept these terms?" Stannis and Nights Watchmen emerge from the North, Northeast, and East attacking a poorly defended largely civilian encampment needlessly slaughtering non-combatants. Stannis could have accepted the terms without having to actually treat w/ the Mance himself. Slynt sent Jon, therefore it's seems possible to act through a proxy in such a situation.

Just to be clear, you think Stannis should simply accept the terms Mance offered? Let us in or we will destroy you? You're saying Stannis should let the wildlings come through the Wall and just do everything they've been doing all along only on a mass migratory scale? Kill northmen, steal their food, steal their metal, kidnap and rape their women. Because that's the only thing that's going to happen. Period. They will not kneel, they will not submit to the laws of the land. Mance laughs at Jon for even suggesting it.

If you're just looking for something, some way to discredit Stannis that's fine. I get it. The Stanship circlejerk is annoying but if you're honestly thinking what you're suggesting is a good idea you're wrong.

Stannis lets the wildlings through, the wildlings continue their wildling ways. They raid, they pillage, they rape. Only now instead of their being clustered in one area they've spread throughout the land and the northmen are having to chase them down one by one, clan by clan, group by group while every other clan and raiding party is out there pillaging and raping. And now people are crying about how Stannis is a piss poor king that would let the innocent northern civilians be attacked by wildling raiders and cannibal clans.

[Edmure Floppy-Fish Tully]

... Except that the case has been made in this thread that the riverlords are making their own moves and that there are still lines of communication between the North and the Riverlands.

Can't believe I've missed it.

But other than hiding the Blackfish, and being generally sulky and sullen and un-cooperative with the Lannisters, what are the Lords of the Trident actually doing? They have all bent the knee, afaik, and have no possible 'cards' so to say with which to conspire against the Iron Throne...

Jason Mallister was present when Robb's will was signed, but I think he was the only Riverlord there. And that by itself doesn't mean he can do much, other than keeping his mouth shut about it in case any spy is near.

Bracken might join the others if he catches a scent of victory, but otherwise he's all Lanny.

Blackwood's got nothing.

Vance, Piper, etc, are just sitting ducks, their seats and situations are too vulnerable without anyone rallying them effectively, and Marq Piper is hostage...

About the lines of communication... crannogmen?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Can't believe I've missed it.

But other than hiding the Blackfish, and being generally sulky and sullen and un-cooperative with the Lannisters, what are the Lords of the Trident actually doing? They have all bent the knee, afaik, and have no possible 'cards' so to say with which to conspire against the Iron Throne...

Jason Mallister was present when Robb's will was signed, but I think he was the only Riverlord there. And that by itself doesn't mean he can do much, other than keeping his mouth shut about it in case any spy is near.

Bracken might join the others if he catches a scent of victory, but otherwise he's all Lanny.

Blackwood's got nothing.

Vance, Piper, etc, are just sitting ducks, their seats and situations are too vulnerable without anyone rallying them effectively, and Marq Piper is hostage...

About the lines of communication... crannogmen?

I think the question isn't so much, "What are they doing?" as it is, "Why might they do?" It's true now that a lot of them are in precarious situations, BUT I think that's why a point is being made of the Lannister forces' pull out, that the Blackfish is on the loose, that Stoneheart's men seem to be in collusion with some of them (Edmure and the Blackfish, anyway), that at least a few northern army stragglers are wandering around doing ... something ... and that something big is probably going to happen at Riverrun. Or to put it another way, even though the riverlords have obstacles in front of them now, actors are in play to remove those obstacles. And once that happens, then I think you'll see them start to have some effect again.

And yes I think the Neck is playing some role in communications. Stoneheart's people supposedly disappear into the Neck, but Tom apaprently got in touch with them somehow because they knew when and where to attack Ryman.

[Faint]

Bracken might join the others if he catches a scent of victory, but otherwise he's all Lanny.

Blackwood's got nothing.

Tytos Blackwood won't do anything because the Lannisters have his son as a hostage; Jonos Bracken won't do anything because the Lannisters have his daughter as a hostage.