The Great Northern Conspiracy, Reexamined

[Frey Pie]

Jon won't go south as long as the others remain a threat. There's a good chance that Stannis might not go south either till the others are dealt with. So while the Northmen and Stannis(maybe along with the forces of the riverlands and Vale) fight against the others, down south Aegon(along with Dorne) and Tyrells will end up butchering each other all the while the Iron Islanders fight the redwyne fleet(which is now free from dragonstone) - leaving no army left in westeros capable of stopping Danny when she lands - I'm not liking this one bit.

A given, yes

[Barty]

My point was more about whether the North's influence post-victory over any Lannister coalition would override the Iron Throne in the Riverlands and Vale, not so much whether they would accept Jon as King in the North. That is, do they choose Jon over Stannis.

They already did, didn't they?? According to Cat Robb demanded everyone's seal on the will and that included Jason Mallister, Marq Piper and Edmure Tully. If the Tully Lord of Riverrun has accepted Jon as Robb's heir then the others should have no problem(they might not like it but they have no legal problems)

Robb stood, and as quick as that, her fate was settled. He picked up a sheet of parchment. “One more matter. Lord Balon has left chaos in his wake, we hope. I would not do the same. Yet I have no son as yet, my brothers Bran and Rickon are dead, and my sister is wed to a Lannister. I’ve thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.”

[Ragnorak]

Does no one else think it would be completely out of charecter for the northmen after stannis has defeated the boltons and freys to go "ok thanks dude, now get the fuck out before we hang your organs from a weirwood"?

I just cant imagine that, jons death would really have to have changed him for him to just decide to do that.

I could see a deal being made with stannis and the northmen, in return for stannises help he gets a base of operations, and even some northern swords to help him out in the south. If the northmen force him to leave he would be forced to leave westeros and go east witch would all but mean defeat. If he and the northmen end up fighting its just going to be unneccesary bloodshed weakening the north right before the others arrive. Another thing to consider, can the northmen even afford to screw stannis? He has the ib support and soon a whole lot of sellswords will be his, the strength of the north however is greatly spread out and will take time and a stark to gather together. I think alot of people are not really thinking this one through when they say the northmen are going to turn on stannis. This would really ruin the north for me, I mean if they do something like this they are no different from the lannisters, freys and boltons in witch case why should I give a damn about what happens to them? I may as well start rooting for the others to wipe westeros out and turn it into a white waste.

I don't have an answer as to how Jon would resolve this, but it strikes me that this is exactly the type of dilemna that has filled his entire arc.

[Light a wight tonight]

They already did, didn't they?? According to Cat Robb demanded everyone's seal on the will and that included Jason Mallister, Marq Piper and Edmure Tully. If the Tully Lord of Riverrun has accepted Jon as Robb's heir then the others should have no problem(they might not like it but they have no legal problems)

They are witnesses to Jon's legitimacy and claim to the North. The Riverlands and Vale are politically separate entities. Hoster Tully ruled the Riverlands, not Ned Stark. Same for Jon Arryn in the Vale. I don't think the Tullys bent the knee to Robb; they were allies against the Lannisters, that's all.

And if I'm wrong on this point I'll welcome correction.

[E-Ro]

I don't have an answer as to how Jon would resolve this, but it strikes me that this is exactly the type of dilemna that has filled his entire arc.

Good point, and so far he has chosen well. Lets hope there is no change in his charecter after he comes back.(heres hoping its sooner rather then later, his dying just complicates things so much for an already overly hectic north)

[Barty]

They are witnesses to Jon's legitimacy and claim to the North. The Riverlands and Vale are politically separate entities. Hoster Tully ruled the Riverlands, not Ned Stark. Same for Jon Arryn in the Vale. I don't think the Tullys bent the knee to Robb; they were allies against the Lannisters, that's all.

And if I'm wrong on this point I'll welcome correction.

But once Edmure Tully bent the knee to Robb he became part of the northern Kingdom. The riverlands and the north became one political entity. As for the Vale - they are about to be tied to the Starks by Sansa. They hate the Lannisters, have no reason to love Stannis but their Lord is married to a Stark - this might be enough for them to chose Sansa's half brother( or real brother if Jon steps down for Rickon) as King over Stannis.

[E-Ro]

Well if the riverlands are going to be part of the kingdom of the north they had better be sure they get the vale as well or the riverlands will be conqured by someone. The north is defencible yes. But they cant hold the riverlands without help.

[tze]

Does no one else think it would be completely out of charecter for the northmen after stannis has defeated the boltons and freys to go "ok thanks dude, now get the fuck out before we hang your organs from a weirwood"?

I think the issue comes back to R'hllor. What did Stannis do at Storm's End? He burned the godswood. What did Stannis do when he let the wildlings through the Wall? He made them burn bits of weirwood. What did Stannis want Jon to do to become Lord of Winterfell? Burn the Winterfell godswood. The former two incidents are not secrets, and it doesn't take a genius to extrapolate from them Stannis's plans for the Winterfell godswood (even if the Northmen don't know about the specific offer to Jon).

Embracing R'hllor gained Stannis a few advantages in the short-term, but in the long-term, R'hllor could be the factor that destroys him, because a group that might (might) have been willing to support his bid for the Iron Throne if he weren't sanctioning and promoting attacks on their religion would probably consider his anti-Old Gods actions thus far to be dealbreakers (especially given the re-arming of the Faith in the South, given the ancient clashes between followers of the Faith and followers of the Old Gods). Why should they bleed and die simply to empower someone who, as his past actions can attest, is just going to turn around and attack their religion the second he has the power to do so? And even if readers believe Stannis might be willing to throw off R'hllor . . . well, why would any of the Northmen feel the same? Nothing they've seen thus far shows Stannis to be anything but a R'hllor fanatic.

And remember the whole incident with the leeches? Mel burned them to demonstrate R'hllor's power to Stannis, claiming that burning the leeches was what killed the other kings---but the whole point of that scene was that it was a trick, and burning the leeches didn't do anything. It gained Stannis absolutely nothing. Given Roose Bolton's "Leech Lord" nickname, there could be a hint there: that "burning the leeches" (the Boltons), which Stannis believes will gain him power and kingship, will actually be an exercise in futility for him.

[Tagganaro]

Does no one else think it would be completely out of charecter for the northmen after stannis has defeated the boltons and freys to go "ok thanks dude, now get the fuck out before we hang your organs from a weirwood"?

I just cant imagine that, jons death would really have to have changed him for him to just decide to do that.

I could see a deal being made with stannis and the northmen, in return for stannises help he gets a base of operations, and even some northern swords to help him out in the south. If the northmen force him to leave he would be forced to leave westeros and go east witch would all but mean defeat.

This is the difficulty, isn't it? I mean, it's not gonna be about "thanks, get the fuck out of here before we hang your organs from a weir wood", it's gonna be about what the North wants and desires and what Stannis wants and desires, and these 2 things seem to be diametrically opposed to each other at this point.

As Stannis has made clear several times, he is entirely opposed to Northern independence, believes Robb Stark was a traitor who got what he deserved, and believes that the North and in fact the entirety of Westeros owe him fealty as he is the rightful King.

This is obviously fundamentally opposed to what we've seen of what the Northmen want- Which is independence from the Iron Throne and the continuance of the Stark legacy.

About this proposed "deal", I imagine it is going to be difficult if Stannis insists that he rules over the North (which he has shown no sign of backing down from ever), and he also insists that the North owes him this duty anyway, he shouldn't have to ask (which again, seems like if anything Stannis will believe this even more passionately after he "saves the North" and expels the Boltons and Freys).

So again, this isn't to say the North is necessarily going to betray him, unless you take betray to mean "not help win the Iron Throne", but just a realization that as it now stands there is pretty much no middle ground between what Stannis wants and what the Northmen want. The only thing they can potentially agree on is that the Others are the real enemy and the real fight is to the North, but again, Stannis has never shown any signs or intent that he's prepared to give up on his fight for the Iron Throne.

[Runaway Penguin]

Stannis will probably have a revelation re. weirwoods when he will chop Theon's head off (or will try to do so) among the weirwoods. Maybe the trees will tell him that Bran is alive? After all that is the main point why Northmen want his head, miller's sons could be laid on Ramsay's doorstep atleast partially.

[Winterfellian]

Does no one else think it would be completely out of charecter for the northmen after stannis has defeated the boltons and freys to go "ok thanks dude, now get the fuck out before we hang your organs from a weirwood"?

While I don't think they are like the Lannisters not every northman is the honorable man that was Ned Stark. If anything, they have proved that they can get their hands dirty if it is necessary. If anyone would have asked me before ADWD if I thought a northern lord capable of inflicting cannibalism on others by serving men in pies I probably would have balked at this notion and would have been proven wrong eventually. My point is that while they don't share all the cultural values as the Southern Lords that doesn't mean that they are all as honorable as was the Ned. Also, bear in mind that they will be betraying him for what they feel is right. For me the biggest hitch in the conspiracy will be Jon. He's very much like Ned and know what is due to Stannis so even if the Northern Lords are all for betraying him, Jon will have to be ok with the plan.

Another obstacle is not only that the difference in objectives, but also Stannis himself. Stannis is completely uncompromising and hardly ever deals in half measures. With him is basically his way or the highway. I've read posts proposing that since they have a common enemy they can unite forces or that Stannis can be given help if he agreeds to the independence of the North. This views, in my opinion, ignore a very poignant characteristic of Stannis's nature-he does not bend. Back in ACOK the north and Stannis did have a common enemy (as Catelyn reminded Stannis in person) and Stannis needed all the help he could get yet he chose to demand it all or nothing. He chose to ally himself with a woman capable of very dubious acts not only because she showed she had power but because she fueled his ideas of what was righfully his-the SEVEN kingdoms. If the Northern conspiracy proves truth will Stannis be willing to ally himself to another one with power, no matter how dark, just so he can achieve his objectives? I think is possible.

[Dr. Pepper]

As for the horn, normally I am a proponent of symbolism over physical objects, yeah. But the horn with the cache is too compelling to ignore. Possible though that its FUNCTION is symbolic, like it won't literally bring down the Wall.

ETA: What if the horn is actually a weapon, and bringing the Wall down actually refers to removing the need for the Wall's existence? We interpret it as something dangerous that will help the Others get through, but maybe it's the opposite. Also explains why it'd be in a cache with weapons to use against Others.

Semi nonsensical brainstorming here....It's always been curious to me why Joramun is remembered in history but the King in the North he allied with has no name. Is the Horn of Winter associated with Joramun because he's the one that created and led the wildling/Northern alliance? Is this important? Is the horn symbolic of multiple sides combining to work together to produce one thing?

Sort of recalls Victarion using three different men to blow the dragon horn in order to produce one specific result. Joramun (or Jon in this case) would be using the wildlings, the NW, and the northmen (all present) to 'blow the horn of winter'. The Shield Hall moment could be the horn blowing moment. Wun Wun the giant was certainly woken (and Jon repeats the "and woke giants from the earth" several times, almost as much as "You know nothing, Jon Snow).

In this way, the horn would be symbolic. But what would be the 'horn blow'? Is there a specific moment when the horn of winter was blown in the Shield Hall or immediately after?

[Yeade]

Ah, the Grand Northern Conspiracy! My favorite theory to come out of ADWD, along with Aegriff, Blackfyre pretender. To add to Apple Martini's mention upthread of the Riverlands faction:

The Brotherhood Without Banners is speculated to be in communication with all the potential conspirators. Tom Sevenstrings is in place at Riverrun as the BWB's inside man, and his spying has already led to the deaths of Ryman Frey's party at Lady Stoneheart's hands. Jaime leaves Tom alone with Edmure as he bathes and eats in preparation for negotiating Riverrun's surrender and, as the theory goes, Tom tells Edmure of the BWB's plans to 1) retake Riverrun from the Lannisters and 2) free the prisoners from the Red Wedding, soon to be out of the Twins and in transit to King's Landing per Jaime's orders, so Edmure can pass the word on to the Blackfish when he meets with his uncle.

Of interest in the matter of Jon being named Robb's heir in Chekhov's will is that Edmure's also one of the witnesses to Robb's decision and probably confirms the contents to the Blackfish, who might have known already as Robb's closest adviser. When Riverrun surrenders, two men, Desmond Grell, master-at-arms, and Robin Ryger, captain of guards, refuse to disperse with the rest of the garrison and instead choose to take the black. Jaime orders them escorted to Maidenpool, where they'll presumably take ship to Eastwatch. It's been speculated that Grell and Ryger have in fact been charged by the Blackfish with serving Jon notice that he's the new King in the North. Additionally, given the fact that the two Riverrun men have yet to arrive at the Wall and how rough the seas have been with the first winter storms, there's a slight possibility that they've taken a detour to White Harbor.

Even more suspicious, from Jaime's fourth AFFC chapter:

[Jaime] turned back to Lady Mariya [Darry, wife to Merrett Frey]. "The outlaws who killed your husband... Was it Lord Beric's band?"

"So we thought at first. ... The killers scattered when they left Oldstones. Lord Vypren tracked one band to Fairmarket but lost them there. Black Walder led hounds and hunters into Hag's Mire after the others. The peasants denied seeing them, but when questioned sharply they sang a different song. They spoke of a one-eyed man and another who wore a yellow cloak... and a woman, cloaked and hooded. ... The peasants would have us believe that her face was torn and scarred, and her eyes terrible to look upon. They claim she led the outlaws."

... "How far did Black Walder track this hooded woman and her men?"

"His hounds picked up their scent again north of Hag's Mire," the older woman told him. "He swears that he was no more than half a day behind them when

they vanished into the Neck

."

Dinner conversation then moves on to how the crannogmen would probably shelter the outlaws, same as many of the riverlords and smallfolk. Lady Stoneheart obviously returns from the Neck in time to hang Brienne near to death by the end of AFFC, but the questions to ask are what she was doing so far north to begin with and whether she made contact with Howland Reed and the others presumed to be in his company, Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover. (Who, supposing Lady Maege sent r-mail to her daughters in the North, could've easily done the same to his brother Robett, with Manderly.)

While Lady Stoneheart could've simply been forced to flee into the Neck when hunting Freys in the vicinity of the Twins, she strikes me as somewhat unusually contemplative in her last appearance: "In her hands was a crown, a bronze circlet ringed by iron swords. She was studying it, her fingers stroking the blades as if to test their sharpness." I think enough of Catelyn Stark remains in Lady Stoneheart that she may remember Robb's last wishes for his kingdom, that his brother Jon take up his crown, which she was vehemently opposed to when alive. Has she had a change of heart?

In this light, her baiting Jaime away from his forces with Brienne could have a purpose beyond simple vengeance. Jaime's one of the few competent enemy commanders left in the area and, maybe more importantly, as representative of the Iron Throne's authority, can bring the Freys and discontent riverlords to heel.

Yet another interesting wrinkle in all this is that Harwin's a leading contender for the hooded man Theon sees in Winterfell. If true, Lady Stoneheart and the Blackfish, Reed, Mormont, and Glover in the Neck, and Manderly with the remaining loyalist northern lords around Winterfell would be neatly tied together in a truly gigantic pro-Stark conspiracy.

Finally, the Blackfish is still at large, with many believing he's headed for the Vale where he plans to gather the support of the Lords Declarant in fielding an army to clear the Lannisters and Freys out. By some calculations, there may even be hundreds to thousands of stranded northern troops wandering about the riverlands that could perhaps be rallied, too.

Of course, none of this is certain. Plus, regardless of what anyone else is up to, I bet Jon would refuse legitimization in favor of arguing Rickon's claim when he resurfaces and will continue to give Stannis his due respect. At the same time, Jon will be de facto King in the North, Rickon's unofficial regent, and supreme allied commander in the war for the dawn, IMO. Jon won't refuse the cooperation of the northmen in fighting the Others, no matter their reasons for offering it. And, just as his preparations for the ice zombie apocalypse in ADWD have led to him unwittingly making himself king of the wildlings in Mance Rayder's absence, so could his need to have the North united against the Others lead to him tacitly acknowledging a reading of Robb's will that grants him the power to command the northmen. Things would be... awkward with Stannis, to be sure, but saving the world is a damn sight more important than sparing Stannis's feelings or teeth, lol.

[Ser Wun Wun]

snip.

Just. Awesome.

I vote that the brain trust who brought us this thread and the "Stuff that's confirmed/hinted at in aWoIaF app" should start working on a "The Teachings of Tze" thread next. They can sift through your ~1200 posts and present us with all your best theories.

Consider me your first convert :bowdown:

[Light a wight tonight]

But once Edmure Tully bent the knee to Robb he became part of the northern Kingdom. The riverlands and the north became one political entity. As for the Vale - they are about to be tied to the Starks by Sansa. They hate the Lannisters, have no reason to love Stannis but their Lord is married to a Stark - this might be enough for them to chose Sansa's half brother( or real brother if Jon steps down for Rickon) as King over Stannis.

"But once Edmure Tully bent the knee......" Yeah, but where's the evidence that this happened?

[Summer is Ending]

"But once Edmure Tully bent the knee......" Yeah, but where's the evidence that this happened?

“Don’t call me the boy,” Robb said, rounding on his uncle, his anger spilling out all at once on poor Edmure, who had only meant to support him. “I’m almost a man grown, and a king—your king, ser.

....

“Your Grace,” Robb corrected, icy. “You took me for your king, Uncle. Or have you forgotten that as well?”

[Dragonguard]

They are witnesses to Jon's legitimacy and claim to the North. The Riverlands and Vale are politically separate entities. Hoster Tully ruled the Riverlands, not Ned Stark. Same for Jon Arryn in the Vale. I don't think the Tullys bent the knee to Robb; they were allies against the Lannisters, that's all.

And if I'm wrong on this point I'll welcome correction.

But once Edmure Tully bent the knee to Robb he became part of the northern Kingdom. The riverlands and the north became one political entity. As for the Vale - they are about to be tied to the Starks by Sansa. They hate the Lannisters, have no reason to love Stannis but their Lord is married to a Stark - this might be enough for them to chose Sansa's half brother( or real brother if Jon steps down for Rickon) as King over Stannis.

When Robb relieved Riverrun and the Greatjon named him king in the north, the other northern lords kneel and swear to him 'and the river lords were rising too, blackwood and bracken and mallister, houses who had never been ruled from winterfell, yet catelyn watched them rise and draw their blades, bending their knees and shouting the old words...the king in the north' Catelyn p771 GoT

and when Robb names his heir he says 'I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision' Catelyn p66 aSoS-2 -- this is to the Greatjon, Maege Mormont, Galbart Glover, Edmure, Jason Mallister and Raynald Westerling

+ when robb sends the map of the territory he wants the lannisters to accept with his 'peace' terms he includes all the riverlands

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Awesome stuff about burning leeches being pointless.

Mind blown as usual.

And I disagree with E-Ro's premise that we have two extremes: Stannis ruling the North as part of the larger Seven Kingdoms, or the northmen running him out of town with pitchforks. I imagine we'll see a middle ground — "We'll support your bid for the Iron Throne and do what we can to help, but you're not ruling the North."

Awesome stuff about the Riverlands angle.

Love this, especially the reminder about Tom and Edmure's time alone (perhaps Edmure's pained reaction in Jaime's POV is meant to distract us readers from the likelihood that the men would have probably "talked shop") and the fact that at least a few Riverrun men are Wall-bound. That seems to imply a link still between the regions and would dispel the idea that the riverlords wouldn't accept Jon. The more I think about it, the more I think Brynden's words about Jon while speaking to Jaime are "protesting too much."

The note about UnCat holding the crown is interesting to think about, too. It's obviously Robb's own crown — as such it would be the crown that his successor would wear, too. I've always read that scene as her mourning Robb still or pondering some sort of vengeance. But you make an interesting case that she actually means to see Robb's will through. Also, wouldn't it be ironic if it took Catelyn turning into some undead fury to finally "give Jon his due"?

Also ... what if Tom sent a heads-up to the BWB, telling them that Ryman Frey was en route and that he had the crown? At face value, it seems like a garden-variety Frey-hanging party, but what if the acquisition of Robb's crown (with extreme prejudice!) was the real target here, and if they got to kill Freys, hey, so much the better.

The one thing I'm iffy on is the Hooded Man, simply because I really do think it's a Theon Durden situation.

And as other people have pointed out, Robb's kingdom included the Riverlands and he had riverlords (e.g. Mallister) affix seals to his will.

[OberynBlackfyre]

I am just glad people finally realize that the goddamn WILL was actually true, and Jon was always meant to be a Stark.

[Minstral]

And I disagree with E-Ro's premise that we have two extremes: Stannis ruling the North as part of the larger Seven Kingdoms, or the northmen running him out of town with pitchforks. I imagine we'll see a middle ground — "We'll support your bid for the Iron Throne and do what we can to help, but you're not ruling the North."

While there is room to debate how heavily the War of the Roses influenced GRRM and his writings in these novels, there is a historical example that we could see later on. When the Lancastrians were negotiating with the Scottish to gain their support, they gave them an army on the grounds that house Lancaster would cede a border town in exchange for an army, an army that would hurt their cause just as much as it helped.

I am just glad people finally realize that the goddamn WILL was actually true, and Jon was always meant to be a Stark.

Actually, him being "destined" is still up for debate. He could decide to take up a new banner and new name to differentiate himself from his siblings.