The Martells (and the North?) and Asymmetric Warfare

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Totally a plot device IMO, especially if it's confirmed that wierwood arrows could kill the dragons, I think it would have been a sound plan.

And if Bran saw this guy once through the weirnet, who's to say he couldn't see him again, learn about the weirwood theory and pass it along in the present time?

[Sevumar]

I wonder if the terrain in Dorne makes it more favorable for its people to fight a guerilla war against a Targaryen army backed by dragons. Much of the land there is arid and we're told that there were places for the fighters and civilians to retreat to. We don't know that the North is equally invested with such places for prospective fighters, which might have been a concern for a king considering a guerilla campaign. Much of the land in Dorne is essentially unusable, so it makes sense not to worry about its destruction. Yes, they have fields, groves, and farms in Dorne, but they're a much smaller portion of the land than the forests and farms in the North.

Likewise, I wonder how much of Torrhen's trip south was a sort of fact-finding mission. Perhaps the king hoped to see Harrenhal for himself, to see what these dragons were capable of before deciding whether to wager the lives of his troops by giving battle to the Targaryens. He probably knew that the traditional defenses of the North would not do much to keep his people safe from dragons, so he did the prudent thing after moving his army away from Northern territory.

Lastly, there's a powerful symbolism involved in the Stark presence at Winterfell that doesn't seem to exist in Dorne. The Stark who gave up or abandoned Winterfell to an enemy, even to make it easier to fight a war, would be viewed as a weak leader by his vassals.

While I think the North could've had some success using Dornish techniques against the Targaryen dragons, I don't think they'd ultimately be as successful. The North had a lot more to lose by abandoning its fortresses and taking to the wilderness. On top of that, Torrhen seems like a man whose goal was to minimize death and suffering among his people rather then plunging them into a potentially long and costly war that might have only had a small chance to succeed.

[Lion of Judah]

If Torrhen was paying attention to past history; then his decision to march towards Moat Cailin was justified.

Moat Cailin is ancient fortress on the northern edge of the great swamp known as the Neck, in the North. It is one of the North's most important strongholds, even though much of it now stands in ruins. Its importance stems from the fact that it commands the causeway, which is the safe route for armies to travel through the swamps of the Neck. It is a very effective natural choke point which has protected the North from southern invasion for thousands of years. The only way for an invader to effective bypass Moat Cailin is to win the allegiance of the Reeds who know of other routes through the swamps. Those are not on any map, known only to the Crannogmen, such as narrow trails between the bogs and wet roads through the reeds that only boats can follow and given the Reeds' strong ancestral ties to the Starks, this is unlikely to happen.

This was a quick cut and paste. Elsewhere, it is noted that Moat Cailin has withstood the test of time and confrontations. Not sure it has ever been taken when the Starks are in power. Noteable exception is the Greyjoy's in the most recent raucus. But of course, the Starks were not in control of Winterfell at that moment (Robb already had his head sewed to a direwolf).

Don't get me wrong if the idea was to go to war then yes I understand the move to Moat Cailin, but that's not the plan they left the North with. The idea at the time was not to fight an all out war, so why move 30,000 troops to Moat Cailin?

[Lion of Judah]

And if Bran saw this guy once through the weirnet, who's to say he couldn't see him again, learn about the weirwood theory and pass it along in the present time?

Ohh...that's putting into consideration that Bran is understanding everything he sees. There was an image he saw where a woman was cutting the throat of a man in front of the weirwood, it didn't seem to me that he could make sense of the images, yet.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Holy crap you guys. HOLY. CRAP.

This is something Tewks44 brought up in the "Moments of Foreshadowing Thread."

A quote from Bran's last chapter in ACoK when Bran and crew find the godswood at Winterfell has been largely unburnt from the sacking.

"'there is a power in living wood,"said Jojen Reed, almost as if he knew what Bran was thinking, "a power as strong as fire'"

Hopefully that will be foreshadowing what's to come.

The godswood of Winterfell survived the fire of the castle getting sacked.

Assuming that a weirwood (and the Starks' heart tree would have survived the fire too, obviously) is a better/stronger/superior class of wood ...

Living wood -> a weirwood -> weirwood arrows -> a power as strong as fire -> weirwood arrows are capable of killing dragons.

... So where did Brandon Snow get the idea, and why? Was he thinking about range shooting (i.e. something about the weirwood made it more accurate over distances), or was there something significant about the weirwood itself?

[James Arryn]

At least since the Romans, the power which most effectively and consistently countered asymmetrical warfare was the British Empire, and they did so largely reliant on the flexibility and point of decision power their navy gave them. Possibly a lesson learned going as far back as Harold vs. Welsh, the principle that an enemy who refuses to fight can be overcome if you control when and where you hit, don't tie yourself down with geographic goals but instead keep moving and hitting where you are not expected, and use versatile marine-like hard hitting disciplined infantry who are capable of operating at different unit levels without losing cohesion.

Essentially use complete dominance of the waterways to turn the game on its head. It should be noted that the British faced asymmetrical warfare countless

times, and their only real losses were the American Revolution, wherein they were doing just fine with a secondary force until the French navy showed up and changed the game, and in Afghanistan, where they were too far from their naval power and too tied down with geographic points of interest.

So I think Dorne has an advantage the North lacks...as I understand it, it's coastal formations make landings virtually impossible for huge stretches, if not most of the coast. Apparently the Sunspear and river estuaries are the only reliable seaports, and any others which are not mentioned are so far from fresh water etc. as to make the difference moot.

Whereas the North's lack of naval power has always struck me as hugely improbable' given its extensive coastlines and rivers. But, accepting it as fact also means it is very vulnerable to a naval based attack. I agree a naval based invasion would still meet with the kind of defence discussed in the O.P., but if they take a lesson from Harold or the Brits, use the coasts and rivers as highways and take the fight to the enemy where and when you want it....hitting supply bases, forts, etc. and then melting back to the sea, I think you keep the North on the defensive, which is the opposite of a guerrilla campaign's objective.

I don't think the idea would be to take the North castle by castle...winter itself would intervene on that concept at some point...but rather to make life unsustainable, to threaten/destroy winter supplies and shelters, etc. it wouldn't happen overnight, but so long as you maintain naval supremacy you don't really have to commit all that much to the campaign, and dragons would make it all the more effective if and when the North tried to counter by massing to march south to threaten your naval bases.

[Summer is Ending]

Holy crap you guys. HOLY. CRAP.

This is something Tewks44 brought up in the "Moments of Foreshadowing Thread."

The godswood of Winterfell survived the fire of the castle getting sacked.

Assuming that a weirwood (and the Starks' heart tree would have survived the fire too, obviously) is a better/stronger/superior class of wood ...

Living wood -> a weirwood -> weirwood arrows -> a power as strong as fire -> weirwood arrows are capable of killing dragons.

... So where did Brandon Snow get the idea, and why? Was he thinking about range shooting (i.e. something about the weirwood made it more accurate over distances), or was there something significant about the weirwood itself?

Could be a counterpart to obsidian.

While we can't guess exactly what it would do we can be fairly sure it's sure not going to just burn up on hitting dragon blood like regular wood. It's so fire resistant the wildlings were burning their dead in the mouth of the weirwood at Whitetree and it just made it grow all the bigger.

It was the biggest tree Jon Snow had ever seen, the trunk near eight feet wide, the branches spreading so far that the entire village was shaded beneath their canopy. The size did not disturb him so much as the face . . . the mouth especially, no simple carved slash, but a jagged hollow large enough to swallow a sheep.

...

He knelt and reached a gloved hand down into the maw. The inside of the hollow was red with dried sap and blackened by fire. Beneath the skull he saw another, smaller, the jaw broken off. It was half-buried in ash and bits of bone.

[Mace Cooterian]

Don't get me wrong if the idea was to go to war then yes I understand the move to Moat Cailin, but that's not the plan they left the North with. The idea at the time was not to fight an all out war, so why move 30,000 troops to Moat Cailin?

To take recent history, let's look at the cold war: USA v. USSR. I don't want to confuse the whole wall sitaution in Germany as being the Wall that separates the North and South. But, it Torrhen moved his strength to where history supports is the stronghold (Moat Cailin); perhaps he was pulling a Ronald Reagan. In other words, sort of doubling down showing his strength at the last stronghold hoping (hoping mind you) that Aegon would pull back.

There has got to be something more to Torrhen bending the knee that what we are being told.

From Apple Martini:

Brandon Snow (who I'm about 98% sure is the guy Bran sees in his vision making weirwood weapons, so there's something significant about him) wanted to kill the dragons using weirwood arrows. He was prevented from doing so because Torrhen knelt.

I would agree 100% up to your 98% that Brandon Snow wanted to shoot weirwood arrows at dragons.

[Lion of Judah]

Holy crap you guys. HOLY. CRAP.

This is something Tewks44 brought up in the "Moments of Foreshadowing Thread."

The godswood of Winterfell survived the fire of the castle getting sacked.

Assuming that a weirwood (and the Starks' heart tree would have survived the fire too, obviously) is a better/stronger/superior class of wood ...

Living wood -> a weirwood -> weirwood arrows -> a power as strong as fire -> weirwood arrows are capable of killing dragons.

... So where did Brandon Snow get the idea, and why? Was he thinking about range shooting (i.e. something about the weirwood made it more accurate over distances), or was there something significant about the weirwood itself?

He may have gotten it from the COTF maybe, but it doesn't seem like everyone was convinced that the weirwood arrows would work.

[Mace Cooterian]

He may have gotten it from the COTF maybe, but it doesn't seem like everyone was convinced that the weirwood arrows would work.

Once again...do we have any prior proof that Weirwood arrows can kill dragons? Or other's for that fact?

We still have not seen (unless someone produce's evidence to the contrary) where others, dragons and wierwoods have challenged one another.

[Lion of Judah]

Once again...do we have any prior proof that Weirwood arrows can kill dragons? Or other's for that fact?

We still have not seen (unless someone produce's evidence to the contrary) where others, dragons and wierwoods have challenged one another.

"Totally a plot device IMO, especially if it's confirmed that wierwood arrows could kill the dragons, I think it would have been a sound plan."

I don't know as I previously said, but we know that the weirwood is an exceptionally superior wood dare I say magical in a sense.

[lysmonger]

Holy crap you guys. HOLY. CRAP.

This is something Tewks44 brought up in the "Moments of Foreshadowing Thread."

The godswood of Winterfell survived the fire of the castle getting sacked.

Assuming that a weirwood (and the Starks' heart tree would have survived the fire too, obviously) is a better/stronger/superior class of wood ...

Living wood -> a weirwood -> weirwood arrows -> a power as strong as fire -> weirwood arrows are capable of killing dragons.

... So where did Brandon Snow get the idea, and why? Was he thinking about range shooting (i.e. something about the weirwood made it more accurate over distances), or was there something significant about the weirwood itself?

Speaking of which Bloodraven used to take out Blackfyre with....

Oh this is particularly interesting now.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Once again...do we have any prior proof that Weirwood arrows can kill dragons? Or other's for that fact?

We still have not seen (unless someone produce's evidence to the contrary) where others, dragons and wierwoods have challenged one another.

Yes that's kind of the bloody point isn't it — the author is denying us a precedent on which to draw. We can't say for sure how dragons would react to the North, if weirwood arrows can kill dragons or if dragons can warged. Because if we could, it'd give the entire game away.

What we can do is look at thematic and circumstantial evidence, such as weirwood's evident strength against fire, Brandon Snow's plan to kill the dragons, his appearance in Bran's vision, Jojen's comment about living wood, etc.

Speaking of which Bloodraven used to take out Blackfyre with....

Oh this is particularly interesting now.

Ah ... weirwood arrows have taken out figurative dragons, perhaps foreshadowing literal ones. Hmm.

[Lion of Judah]

Speaking of which Bloodraven used to take out Blackfyre with....

Oh this is particularly interesting now.

Ok so we know that a warg like Bloodraven and Bran can actually go back in time and do something like this, BUT why would Bloodraven want the dragons dead and why not just tell Torrhen this instead of Brandon? And I can't discredit it either, because he has admittedly taken a special interest in the Starks.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Ok so we know that a warg like Bloodraven and Bran can actually go back in time and do something like this, BUT why would Bloodraven want the dragons dead and why not just tell Torrhen this instead of Brandon? And I can't discredit it either, because he has admittedly taken a special interest in the Starks.

Perhaps Brandon was a warg and/or had greendreams and Torrhen wasn't/didn't? Bran could communicate with Jon, but Jon is also a warg.

I view dragons in the same way I view the Others — a force of extremes that needs to be destroyed for balance to return to the world. At best they're instruments and symbols of subjugation, at worst they're helping to throw the entire world out of seasonal whack.

[lysmonger]

I dont think Bloodraven is advocating anyone side. Nor is he trying to kill the dragons.

Is he going to help take the dragons away from Danaeris, for her greater good and the dragons?

Definetlyy.... Bloodraven in my opinion is more concerned about the Doom than anything else....

[Lion of Judah]

Perhaps Brandon was a warg and/or had greendreams and Torrhen wasn't/didn't? Bran could communicate with Jon, but Jon is also a warg.

I view dragons in the same way I view the Others — a force of extremes that needs to be destroyed for balance to return to the world. At best they're instruments and symbols of subjugation, at worst they're helping to throw the entire world out of seasonal whack.

It could be that Brandon was a warg, it would explain why he was convinced the plan would work and why Torrhen didn't buy in completely. Also the bolded is one of the better reasons I have heard for being against the dragons.

[Minstral]

This ended up at the tail end of the Valyrian thread, which was closed.

http://thewertzone.b...ml?spref=tw&m=1

Above is the full account of the Targaryen family on Dragonstone and the narrative of what happened during the Conquest. (Random off-topic observation: There are no Stark or Arryn swords in the Irone Throne, because they surrendered without fighting [possibly worth a foreshadowing thread on its own]; and Oldtown was the last city to fall.)

The part I'm interested in is Dorne and how the Martells and their people successfully held off Rhaenys Targaryen's attempts to conquer them. Dorne at this time was led by Princess Mariya Martell, a lady in her 80s called the Yellow Toad.

Now this has some fun symmetry on its own — Mariya was the Yellow Toad and her descendant Quentyn was called Frog; an elderly lady successfully held off the Targs, and in the current timeline Dany's most successful adversaries are old women (Mirri and the Green Grace). I also think it's hilarious that an ancient old lady had the cajones to tell Rhaenys to screw off (and the Arryn queen regent held out for a fair bit, too), while the men either surrendered outright or got incinerated in an open field.

Significantly though, it shows that the Targaryens, even with dragons, could be held off through asymmetric warfare.

I did quite a bit of reading and research on asymmetric warfare in school. Basically, regular armies lose if they don't win outright. Guerilla fighters win if they don't lose. Researching counterinsurgency, I saw the same thing a lot — Mao in China, Algeria holding off the French, the Viet Cong, etc. In each case the substantially more powerful party (and in the cases of France and the U.S., the foreign invaders) was undone or driven out. The guerilla group resorts to asymmetric tactics precisely because it can't engage in traditional methods of warfare successfully. If the Dornish forces had met Rhaenys' army head on, they'd've been destroyed.

I have to wonder if this precedent will have implications, either for Dorne or the North or both, when the dragons — dragons of less considerable age and size than Aegon's — arrive. I keep seeing people say, basically, "But oh my god they had dragons!" Well, yeah, they did — and Dorne still successfully ejected them. And if Dorne did it once, why couldn't it do it again?

As for the North, I tend to view it and Dorne as sort of two sides of the same coin, kind of a dualist pair. Extreme north and extreme south, both culturally and ethnically different from the middle parts of the country, isolated, with extreme (opposite) weather, etc. And I have to wonder if Dorne's guerilla tactics wouldn't also work in the North. I've said before that I found it curious/convenient that Torrhen Stark not only surrendered, but did so fairly far to the South, well below the Neck. What if he'd taken those 30,000 men, kept them above the Neck and engaged in the sort of guerilla fighting that Dorne did? May have worked, might not have. To definitely say it wouldn't have, though, given what Dorne did, is a reach, in my opinion.

More than anything, the Dornish example show that yes it is possible to stand up successfully to someone with dragons and that they're not necessarily an ironclad trump card. Perhaps the other kingdoms' mistake was meeting Aegon in an open field — perhaps guerilla warfare is and was the answer all along.

There is a tricky thing about asymmetric (Guerrilla) warfare and their tactics they employ against armies. And that is that armies that invade a land are almost always going to bug out if the cost is too high, but this is not going to be the case if a group rises up against its own government. They either win enough support fast to topple the regime, or they get caught in the mud only to wither and cease slowly. Really, the only group that managed to overthrow their indigenous government in a long guerrilla campaign are the Communists of Mao. And while Mao managed to inspire a generation of guerrillas, none of them were able to achieve his result of doing away with the regime they took up arms against.

[J. Stargaryen]

Yeah, definitely plot armor-ish. What's even more interesting is that Aegon was moving away from the North when Torrhen came down. Visenya was working on the Vale but didn't receive orders to take anyone just a bit further on to White Harbor. Aegon pulled a pretty fast U-ie when he heard that Torrhen and his 30k came past Moat Cailin. It's like they were purposely avoiding it.

I wonder if recognizing instances of what appears to be plot armor is an effective method picking up clues from the text. Can you think of any other examples, aside from the obvious ones like Dany walking in, and out of a fire, Jon Snow presumably surviving the Ides of Marsh, etc.?

The one time we do see dragons up north is when Jaehaerys and Alysanne brought six of them. This corresponds to when the last direwolves were seen south of the wall. Coincidence?

There was a pretty interesting thread about this very subject. Do you know what happened to it? :)

[J. Stargaryen]

Holy crap you guys. HOLY. CRAP.

This is something Tewks44 brought up in the "Moments of Foreshadowing Thread."

The godswood of Winterfell survived the fire of the castle getting sacked.

Assuming that a weirwood (and the Starks' heart tree would have survived the fire too, obviously) is a better/stronger/superior class of wood ...

Living wood -> a weirwood -> weirwood arrows -> a power as strong as fire -> weirwood arrows are capable of killing dragons.

... So where did Brandon Snow get the idea, and why? Was he thinking about range shooting (i.e. something about the weirwood made it more accurate over distances), or was there something significant about the weirwood itself?

This, along with 'weirwood arrow conspiracy' during the conquest, and Tze's speculation in the Blood of the First Men thread that the dragons may have died out during the Long Night tie together very nicely. Hmm, interesting stuff. In case it's not clear what I mean: That the 'heroes' killed the dragons with weirwood arrows prior to, or during the Long Night.