Crazy Theory: Tywin Knew About the Purple Wedding.

[Kanishka Prabhudesai]

very nice theory, its not very apparent in the books bt in the series it seems very likely, tywin immediately starts lecturing tommen abt being a gud king n tels him that joff was not 1

[Andreon Blackfyre]

Well Tywin has proved that he would do anything, even kill babies, in order to maintain the name of House Lannister. Undoubtedly, he observed that Joffrey is like the worst king the realm could have;he is still young and a total sadistic cunt who was ruined by Cersei. He(Joffrey) also made really stupid decision strategy-wise e.g. Ned Stark's execution. Tommen-on the other hand- is still young and not as cruel as Joffrey and is open to counsel. Tywin sees Tommen as a tool in order to rule the seven kingdoms through Tommen. So a motive does exist to get rid off Joffrey.

However, we are revealed that the plot for the Purple Wedding was orchestrated by Tyrell/Baelish for their own reasons. It appears to me that neither Olenna or Baelish wouldn't risk informing Tywin of their plans. If Tywin was opposed to this he would probably execute those two. It is possible however for Tywin to have initiated the plot and Olenna Tyrell and Baelish actually took the action.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Well Tywin has proved that he would do anything, even kill babies, in order to maintain the name of House Lannister. Undoubtedly, he observed that Joffrey is like the worst king the realm could have;he is still young and a total sadistic cunt who was ruined by Cersei. He(Joffrey) also made really stupid decision strategy-wise e.g. Ned Stark's execution. Tommen-on the other hand- is still young and not as cruel as Joffrey and is open to counsel. Tywin sees Tommen as a tool in order to rule the seven kingdoms through Tommen. So a motive does exist to get rid off Joffrey.

However, we are revealed that the plot for the Purple Wedding was orchestrated by Tyrell/Baelish for their own reasons. It appears to me that neither Olenna or Baelish wouldn't risk informing Tywin of their plans. If Tywin was opposed to this he would probably execute those two. It is possible however for Tywin to have initiated the plot and Olenna Tyrell and Baelish actually took the action.

Yeah, the hints at Tywin were probably red herrings.

[Hard Hugh]

he definately had the motive

[robdavies1775]

Martin: In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

Martin has indicated that there may be more to the Purple Wedding than has been revealed so far...

[Mithras]

I don't think he knew that (though it is not impossible) but he planned to exploit the new situation very well.

"You are the heir to Casterly Rock. That is where you should be. Tommen should accompany you, as your ward and squire. The Rock is where he’ll learn to be a Lannister, and I want him away from his mother. I mean to find a new husband for Cersei. Oberyn Martell perhaps, once I convince Lord Tyrell that the match does not threaten Highgarden. And it is past time you were wed. The Tyrells are now insisting that Margaery be wed to Tommen, but if I were to offer you instead—”

Once Joffrey is gone, so is the marriage agreement with Tyrells. Tywin planned to release Jaime from the KG, marry him to Margaery, marry (sell) Cersei to Oberyn and keep Tommen's hand (a big prize) free for a future arrangements. We understand that Tywin didnot like to hand everything to the Tyrells and keep Dorne in line at the same time. Perhaps he was planning to have Stannis assassinated and marry Tommen to Shireen. This was also the plan of Alester Florent and it was very beneficial to the Lannisters as Davos explained.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I don't think he knew that (though it is not impossible) but he planned to exploit the new situation very well.

Once Joffrey is gone, so is the marriage agreement with Tyrells. Tywin planned to release Jaime from the KG, marry him to Margaery, marry (sell) Cersei to Oberyn and keep Tommen's hand (a big prize) free for a future arrangements. We understand that Tywin didnot like to hand everything to the Tyrells and keep Dorne in line at the same time. Perhaps he was planning to have Stannis assassinated and marry Tommen to Shireen. This was also the plan of Alester Florent and it was very beneficial to the Lannisters as Davos explained.

Sansa, not Shireen...

[Mithras]

Sansa, not Shireen...

That might work as well.

[Not a kneeler]

I don't think he necessarily knew about the Tyrell/ Baelish plot, but that doesn't mean that he didn't have a plot going in his own right.

[The Dragon King]

I don't think he knew that (though it is not impossible) but he planned to exploit the new situation very well.

Once Joffrey is gone, so is the marriage agreement with Tyrells. Tywin planned to release Jaime from the KG, marry him to Margaery, marry (sell) Cersei to Oberyn and keep Tommen's hand (a big prize) free for a future arrangements. We understand that Tywin didnot like to hand everything to the Tyrells and keep Dorne in line at the same time. Perhaps he was planning to have Stannis assassinated and marry Tommen to Shireen. This was also the plan of Alester Florent and it was very beneficial to the Lannisters as Davos explained.

Did you mean 'marry Tommen to Sansa' and have Shireen assassinated?

Also, why would the Tyrells go for marrying Margery to Jaime rather than Tommen? And what would be the benefit of marrying Tommen to Sansa?

Marrying Margery to Tommen keeps the Lannister/Tyrell alliance going, trying to pawn her off on Jaime could very well destroy that fragile union. With Tyrion taking the black his marriage to Sansa would be nnull and void, which would mean Sansa is available to be married to Jaime, that marriage makes sense, Jaime has a more than suitable woman to further the Lannister line with and it gives his branch of Lannisters a claim on the North.

[BoldGhost]

Yeah I don't think he knew about it personally. Kinslaying isn't his thing it seems, although he is ruthless. Otherwise he would've killed Tyrion long ago.

[ckparrothead]

Two things I'm not sure I've seen brought up much and if they have, forgive me.

1. Even if you believe Tywin would go so far as to kill a Lannister (could really go either way on this), one thing I don't think anyone should be able to see happening is Tywin Lannister allowing the Tyrells to think they just killed a Lannister king and got away with it. Much like the Targaryens, if you're not part of the family and you touch a hair on a Lannister's head, no matter how low that Lannister is thought of, you're going to pay for it. This has got to be exponentially more so the case for a Lannister KING. You could argue Tywin might have done the job himself some time later, most likely after Joffrey had managed to give Margaery a son, but I don't see how anyone could argue that Tywin Lannister allowed the Tyrells to go on thinking it's up to them whether a Lannister king lives or dies.

2. On the other hand a question that's been bothering me is why would Tywin Lannister allow the murder to be pinned on Tyrion, even if he wanted Tyrion safely on the Wall and out of his hair for good? In other words, why don't we ever see Tywin going through extraordinary efforts to discover who REALLY killed Joffrey? Those that brought up what a financial disaster the Purple Wedding was for the Lannisters have a great point. There's nothing that puts mud in the Lannister family's eye quite so much as spending a fortune on a wedding for the Lannister king and then having that Lannister king publicly poisoned during that wedding. Tywin must be furious about it. Unless, do people actually believe that Tywin Lannister bought into the kangaroo court they were putting on to convict Tyrion? He's got Shae in his bed, so he likely knows that she was giving false witness. And he'd never believe a whore anyway. The way the whole case against Tyrion was displayed it looks very obvious that it's all Cersei trying to convict Tyrion no matter what the evidence says. Why the heck would Tywin buy into that? We're led to believe it's just because he's going to use the whole thing conveniently to put Tyrion on the Wall. But if that's the case why wouldn't the question of who actually did it be bothering the hell out of Tywin? Or does he know already and have something planned?

[Armstark]

Two things I'm not sure I've seen brought up much and if they have, forgive me.

1. Even if you believe Tywin would go so far as to kill a Lannister (could really go either way on this), one thing I don't think anyone should be able to see happening is Tywin Lannister allowing the Tyrells to think they just killed a Lannister king and got away with it. Much like the Targaryens, if you're not part of the family and you touch a hair on a Lannister's head, no matter how low that Lannister is thought of, you're going to pay for it. This has got to be exponentially more so the case for a Lannister KING. You could argue Tywin might have done the job himself some time later, most likely after Joffrey had managed to give Margaery a son, but I don't see how anyone could argue that Tywin Lannister allowed the Tyrells to go on thinking it's up to them whether a Lannister king lives or dies.

I think this is actually a great argument in favor of OP's theory. Olena Tyrell is a shrewd player by all accounts, would she really murder the king in front of half the realm and even poison the vine personally if there was even the slightest chance Tywin might see through the obvious ploy to blame Tyrion and start looking for the real perpetrators? Tyrell heads would roll and Tywin would start with her precious Margaery. If Tywin knew nothing of the plot Olena Tyrell takes great risk for herself and her family by murdering the king.

As to the other arguments against OP's theory:

The timing:

I agree Tywin would have preferred a different time to kill Joffrey. Maybe wait a year to strengthen Lannister rule and see if Joffrey can be educated before making the decision whether to kill him or not. But the Tyrells were set on doing it now to protect their precious Margaery. For Tywin this becomes a simple calculus: go along with the Tyrell plot now or loose the alliance and thus maybe the kingdom.

Why kill Joffrey and not Tyrion if you are willing to kinslay?:

Maybe some of you have forgotten but the very first time we ever meet Tywin Lannister he put Tyrion in the flank of the battlefield that was supposed to be crushed. Essentially he tried to give him an honorable death on the battlefield. (which was later tried once more by Ser Mandon Moore and it is till unclear why he did it). All in all Tyrion has at least survived 4 plots against his life (LF's dagger-lie, Tywin at the battle of the Green Fork, Ser Mandon Moore at the Battle of Blackwater and of course the Joffrey's murder trial). Two of those can be directly attributed to Tywin Lannister while the other two seem to be Littlefinger's doing. If the OP is correct Littlefinger and Tywin's realtionship might be much closer than commonly known.

The splendid wedding:

Half the cost of the great wedding was paid for by the Tyrells. Why would they spend so much on a doomed wedding? The answer is simple: to cast all suspicion aside they might be involved in the murder. The same can be true for Tywin.

Tyrion and Sansa:

Tywin's plot to gain the North trough that marriage was already spoiled by Tyrion's reluctance to consummate the wedding (which was common knowledge). Without a child this plot has no chance of ever coming to fruit (it was a long shot to begin with).

And lastly I think it is quite obvious that one single embarrassment for House Lannister (the murder of the king by a Lannister) is much preferable to an endless reign of cruelties and follies if Joffrey would have been allowed to reign. There was literally no chance of holding the kingdom together with Joffrey as king and Tywin is smart enough to realize it.

[imaginepageant]

(Forgive me for bringing the show into this, but it's what got my gears turning about this.)

This doesn't happen in the books, but in the show, Jaime offers to leave the Kingsguard and become Tywin's heir in exchange for Tywin allowing Tyrion to take the black... and Tywin agrees so quickly it seems he'd been expecting this deal to be struck.

This scenario gives Tywin three things he wants:

A. Joffrey is removed from the throne.

B. Jaime becomes the heir to Casterly Rock and continues the legacy of House Lannister.

C. Tyrion forfeits all claims and is removed from King's Landing.

I believe it's possible that Tywin was aware of the assassination plot and saw it as an opportunity to achieve the above results, and therefore allowed it to happen.

Would the timing be possible?

The major difference between the show and the books, where this scenario is concerned, is that at the time of Joffrey's wedding in the books, Jaime is still missing. However, we know that Tywin and Roose had been in contact to plot the Red Wedding, so it is plausible that Roose, once Jaime arrived at Harrenhal, let Tywin know that Jaime was alive and would be returned to King's Landing.

But would this have given Tywin enough time to weave his plot? Yes, assuming that Olenna began her side of the plot to kill Joffrey after Tywin cuckolded her plans to marry Sansa into House Tyrell. According to this timeline, Tyrion and Sansa are wed only five days before Jaime arrived at Harrenhal. Tywin would have learned that Jaime was alive in the early stages of Olenna's plotting.

No one would approach Tywin with a proposal to kill Joffrey.

No more than Tywin would approach anyone else with a proposal to kill Joffrey. But neither needs to have happened for Tywin to have been involved. He could simply have discovered the plot—maybe from Varys's little birds, or his own spies—and allowed it to happen, knowing he could reap the benefits while keeping his own hands clean; Tywin is very much an opportunist, after all. Or, he could have planted seeds in much the same way that Littlefinger claims to have done. For instance, perhaps marrying Sansa to Tyrion was, among other things, meant to sow discord between the Tyrells and the Lannisters and prompt Olenna into action.

Kinslaying is completely out of character for Tywin; he cares for nothing more than his family and his legacy.

If Olenna was the one who truly orchestrated Joffrey's death, then Tywin technically wouldn't be a kinslayer.

But his involvement in the death of a Lannister, especially a Lannister king—even if it was as minor as knowing of the plot and not stopping it—is still out of character for Tywin... if, that is, it truly would have hurt House Lannister. But, on the contrary, it would help House Lannister.

The humiliation of a Lannister being murdered at his own wedding feast is nothing compared to the damage Joffrey was doing on his own, and would continue to do once he came of age. Tywin isn't blind; he knew that Joffrey was despised far and wide, and seven kingdoms hating the king is much more humiliating than that king being murdered. And Tywin himself was displeased with Joffrey's reign thus far. Yes, he had two years to try to turn Joffrey into a competent king, but realistically, I doubt he truly believed that would ever happen. As others have said, Tommen was a much better choice for king for all concerned, especially Tywin.

More importantly, though, was Tywin's dilemma in regards to his own heir. Jaime had given up all claim to Casterly Rock when he became a Kingsguard, leaving Tyrion as Tywin's sole living heir—which we know Tywin could not stand. He had three options: choose an heir from another branch of the family (which would, in essense, mean the end of Tywin's own line in the Lannister legacy), name Tyrion his heir, or convince Jaime to leave the Kingsguard and become his heir. The latter, obviously, was his ideal choice, and I believe that Tywin would consider the humiliation of Joffrey's death a fair price to pay to see Jaime become the lord of Casterly Rock, thus continuing Tywin's line.

Would Tywin normally allow another House to assassinate a Lannister? No. But the ends justifies the means for him—and the end result of Joffrey's death would put House Lannister in a much better position than it could ever have been with him alive and on the throne.