Crazy Theory: Tywin Knew About the Purple Wedding.

[The Dragon King]

Interesting theory, and very well laid out.

However, there are a few holes in it:

1) Even if Tywin had wanted Joffrey to die, and even if he had somehow gained knowledge of the Littlefinger/Tyrell plot (both very big assumptions for which there is no evidence), it seems extremely unlikely that he would have permitted the murder to unfold in the way that it did. The wedding between Joffrey and Margaery was supposed to be the ultimate propaganda coup for the Lannisters - carefully timed to take place at the dawn of the new century, and with immense resources invested in it (at a time when the Crown's finances were in very shaky condition) to make it an extravaganza the likes of which had scarcely been seen before. Tywin even went to the trouble of making a brand new Valyrian Steel longsword to give to Joffrey. After all these preparations, Joffrey's death turned Tywin's carefully planned triumph into a very public embarrassment - and there is nothing that Tywin Lannister loathed more than being embarrassed.

2) In the conversation that he had with Tyrion about Joffrey's patent unsuitability to rule, Tywin insisted that there was "still time". He still had two years of Joffrey's minority left in which he was the de facto ruler of the realm, and it only makes sense that he would have wanted to make at least some effort to reform the boy (through a "sharp lesson") before writing him off and having him killed.

3) At this point Tywin still seems to have been commited to the idea of sending Tyrion to rule the North through Sansa after the winter was over. The loss of Sansa was a sore blow to Lannister plans, and Tywin's subsequent decision to hang Tyrion out to dry in the trial smells more like damage control than a premeditated move.

4) Although Tywin is not exactly a man who is famous for his scruples, everything that is known about his character suggests that Kinslaying is something that he would find to be absolutely, utterly abhorrent. Nothing mattters more to Tywin than his family: no matter how little regard he may have for his relatives as individuals, by being members of House Lannister, they are automatically subject to his protection. Even Tyrion, who he loathed, was worth fighting a war over.

On the whole, the consequences of the Purple Wedding were simply too disastrous for Tywin's plans on too many fronts to make it concievable that he approved of it in any way, let alone was involved in it. He lost too much (including the possibility of having three royal marriages to make alliances rather than just two), and gained too little, at too much risk, for it to seem plausible that such a cautious man would have made such a move.

1) This removes blame from Tywin, making it a bit craftier if true. How much actual damage does Joff dying actually do? It makes peace with the North easier because the crazy jerk that started it all is now dead.

2) Tywin might have changed his mind.

3) Putting the blame on Tyrion doesn't lose Sansa, in fact it allows Tywin to marry Sansa if he chooses, and it gets rid of Tyrion once and for all.

4) Tywin started the war because he couldnt abide the idea of another House taking a Lannister, it looks bad and weak, not because he actually cared for Tyrion. Also, is it still kinslaying if someone else kills Joff and Tywin didnt have any kind of an active part in it but also didnt do anything to stop it?

It is an interesting theory.

[kandake]

Its very possible that tywin knew something about it and decided to let it unfold seeing as how joffrey was completely unmanageable and outright defiant. Like its been said of course no one would approach him about participating in the assasination of his grandson the king but it is possible that varys with the help of his "little birds" mentioned something about whispers they were hearing. Of course there is no way in seven hells that tywin wanted it to go down the way it did but why would he think it would happen like that. IF he did know he wouldn't have been privy to the details because IF varys told him varys wouldnt have provided any (varys being notoriously vague and ambiguous) and IF Tywin thought that maybe joffrey might maybe die in his sleep or of a mysterious illness i cant see him being heartbroken about it. And bear in mind that even if tywin isnt the kinslaying kind he wouldnt be kinslaying if he didnt stopsomeone else from doing it. And to tell you the truth i wouldnt put kinslaying beneath tywin especially if the kin he was slaying was as batshit and disobedient as joff. Tyrion may have had his faults in Tywins eyes but in the end he always ended up doing what Tywin told him to or at least made the appearance of doing so. Remember the Reynes of Castemere it is very likely that they were some offshoot of lannisters from days past and that didnt stop good old Tywin from teaching them a lesson.

[Hannis]

"sharp lesson" caught my attention

[pamparius]

WELLLL, Tywin DOES express his uncertainty in Jeoff's abilities and there may have been some question in his mind as to Jeoff's sanity. I also think it's highly possible, that, even if he doesn't let on, tywin is at least somewhat aware that Cersei's children are not Robert's. He actually seems pretty disdainful of Jeoffrey... then again, Tywin is disdainful of pretty much EVERYONE with the possible exceptions of Kevan and Jaime.

[Blue Loo Boyle]

Hello everyone, I have just finished All 5 books and I must say I am impressed with many of the conspiracies/theories out there. I admire your hard work and intelligence. However, I respectively 100% disagree with this theory. Tywin would never let the Lannister family name tarnish like that even if it allowed for him to stay in power longer. He has a lot of resentment for Tyrion but he takes action when Tyrion is kidnapped as it's a direct insult to the Lannister's. Tywin would never let the Tyrells commit this act.

[Ser Onaventea Helms]

With Joffrey being killed, Jaime's hand being amputated and Tyrion sent to the Wall, I think Tywin wouldn't have gone ahead with the Purple Wedding (or know about ti freely without acting against itl). As much as he despises many members of his family, Tywin hates kinslaying just as much. Assuming that Joffrey did become a King without a regent, I bet Tywin would still implement some shackles on the crazy child nonetheless. He isn't stupid, he could of made up any reason for Joffrey not to do something extravagant and get no threats or punishments at all.

Not to mention, why would he put the blame of Joffrey's death on his on kin? It's bad publicity. He could of set it up to any commoner that attended the wedding and would have potential resentment- why not the jousting dwarves? Again, bad publicity on House Lannister's part.

Overall it the Purple Wedding would have made the Lannister name look corrupt, out of control and promote negativity. Can anyone get a quote of Tywin's exact reaction when he sees his grandchild choking? That is a key element. I'm interested to see how the show takes it as well

[Trigger Warning]

1) This removes blame from Tywin, making it a bit craftier if true. How much actual damage does Joff dying actually do? It makes peace with the North easier because the crazy jerk that started it all is now dead.

I don't think anyone would dare blame Tywin anyway.

[King Pellinore]

Tywin was not stupid and I believe he knew about Cersei's kids. That alone could have been enough to ease his mind about allowing Mad dog Joff to be put down. Somebody mentioned Tywin's need for control as an indicator that he would seek to control Joff but, I think the opposite. Joff proved himself uncontrollable and willing to insult Tywin to his face.

[Adelstad]

I do NOT think that the Tyrells were involved at all. There was NOTHING in it for them

There was something in it for Maergery, it would keep her away from an abusive little tyrant for a husband. Maergery (guided by 'sweet gran' Olenna) would benefit much of an annulment, if the bets were already on for another marriage with Tommen. I quite liked the Olenna-poison-Sansa-hairnet-explanation LF gave us, and still find that theory very believable. Olenna is being described by various characters as a cunning, dangerous woman. And poison is considered a woman's wapon (or a Dornish one).

So I consider Olenna in the deal. Wich leads to the next question: if Tywin was involved, how on earth did he manage to collaborate with Olenna? I don't recall them having a specific liking or trust towards each other. But, this Tywin-knew-theory could mean -on the other hand- that Tywin and Olenna had already struck a deal. Maergery was already secured of another go at marriage with Tommen, hence Olenna could take the risk of destroying Maergery's marriage, because she knew Marge would be queen once more through a new marriage to Tommen...

But then remains mentioning LF, who appears to be the third player in this little, unusual alliance. I don't really see the three in one alliance (I don't see LF, Tywin and Olenna getting along somehow, certainly not all three at once, because all three seem rather suspicious, and all three have a reputation for being cunning), but LF had to be in. How else could he know, and be in time to sweep away Sansa?

Interesting... I do like the Tywin Theory very much, but I'm not quite convinced yet...

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Knowing Myrcella was with the Dornish, Tywin couldnt afford to lose a heir. This is a medieval society where not all the kids reach manhood, and with only one boy everything can go to hell in a blink of an eye.

[Neilos]

If Roose won't kill Ramsay, then I don't think Tywin would kill Joffrey.

[Frey Pie]

1) This removes blame from Tywin, making it a bit craftier if true. How much actual damage does Joff dying actually do? It makes peace with the North easier because the crazy jerk that started it all is now dead.

2) Tywin might have changed his mind.

3) Putting the blame on Tyrion doesn't lose Sansa, in fact it allows Tywin to marry Sansa if he chooses, and it gets rid of Tyrion once and for all.

4) Tywin started the war because he couldnt abide the idea of another House taking a Lannister, it looks bad and weak, not because he actually cared for Tyrion. Also, is it still kinslaying if someone else kills Joff and Tywin didnt have any kind of an active part in it but also didnt do anything to stop it?

It is an interesting theory.

How long is there between when Tywin says there's still time, and the actual wedding? Tyrion IIRC also thought there might be some good in Joff, but after a few weeks with him seems to have given up on this train of thought. Perhaps Tywin thought the same? And Tommen is far more manageable and I believe Tywin would love having a few extra years in charge.

I personally think the taking of Tyrion had very little to do with the war, other than as an excuse. I think perhaps that Tywin was alerted to Cerseis influence at court being eroded, and possibly a move against House Lannister by Baratheon (Renly and the marriage plan, Stannis on his rock) and Stark (Neds snooping). Therefore with or without Tyrion being taken, Robert would still have been assassinated and Tywin would still have pre-emptively attacked, knowing he'd have royal backing.

Tywin put Tyrion in the place of battle where he expected him to die-Tyrion highlights this for us and confronts Tywin about it. Is this more kinslaying then uncovering a plot to kill your grandson and leaving it go?

[The Dragon King]

How long is there between when Tywin says there's still time, and the actual wedding? Tyrion IIRC also thought there might be some good in Joff, but after a few weeks with him seems to have given up on this train of thought. Perhaps Tywin thought the same? And Tommen is far more manageable and I believe Tywin would love having a few extra years in charge.

I personally think the taking of Tyrion had very little to do with the war, other than as an excuse. I think perhaps that Tywin was alerted to Cerseis influence at court being eroded, and possibly a move against House Lannister by Baratheon (Renly and the marriage plan, Stannis on his rock) and Stark (Neds snooping). Therefore with or without Tyrion being taken, Robert would still have been assassinated and Tywin would still have pre-emptively attacked, knowing he'd have royal backing.

Tywin put Tyrion in the place of battle where he expected him to die-Tyrion highlights this for us and confronts Tywin about it. Is this more kinslaying then uncovering a plot to kill your grandson and leaving it go?

I don't think that can be considered kinslaying, leading from the front was very common in that time and the Lord and his male relatives were expected to do their duty leading their men. Robb led from the front as well.

[Gneisenau]

I don't think that can be considered kinslaying, leading from the front was very common in that time and the Lord and his male relatives were expected to do their duty leading their men. Robb led from the front as well.

Plus if Tyrion does a good job at the front it would be a huge plus for his reputation.

[Frey Pie]

I don't think that can be considered kinslaying, leading from the front was very common in that time and the Lord and his male relatives were expected to do their duty leading their men. Robb led from the front as well.

Ya but Tywins plan hinged on Gregors flank folding and routing, catching Tyrion in the rout. Tyrion is not a professionally trained warrior so far as we know (he seems to surprise himself during battle as well as everyone else). Given that the plan was to have all his soldiers flee from him during battle Tyrion was in the place likeliest to kill him.

Tyrion himself confronts his father on this matter and IIRC Tywin does not deny it. Basically if he does well then its all good for Lannister prestige, but if he dies-what about it??

[redguy1]

Interesting theory, but Tywin has a lot of hang ups with his father being weak hearted and an ineffectual leader. Tommen is the second iteration of lord tytos so i could not see tywin making this weak and frail boy become a steadfast and effective leader. It would be more in his favor if he went with myrcella's husband for a few reasons:

1. Dorne would become a greater ally in his mind.

2. Dorne is a harsh place which raises tougher individuals

3. he would still be king's hand so he could teach manipulate trystane into a better ruler.

But in any case anything would be better than Joffrey.

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

Makes sense, two terrible rulers (his grand-son and father) both die when he wants control/save his family from a bad reputation.

[Lost Melnibonean]

And there's this...

Lord Tywin seated himself. "You have the right of it about Stark. Alive, we might have used Lord Eddard to forge a peace with Winterfell and Riverrun, a peace that would have given us the time we need to deal with Robert's brothers. Dead . . . " His hand curled into a fist. "Madness. Rank madness."

"Joff's only a boy," Tyrion pointed out. "At his age, I committed a few follies of my own."

His father gave him a sharp look. "I suppose we ought to be grateful that he has not yet married a whore."

Tyrion sipped at his wine, wondering how Lord Tywin would look if he flung the cup in his face.

"Our position is worse than you know," his father went on. "It would seem we have a new king."

Ser Kevan looked poleaxed. "A newwho? What have they done to Joffrey?"

The faintest flicker of distaste played across Lord Tywin's thin lips. "Nothing . . . yet. My grandson still sits the Iron Throne, but the eunuch has heard whispers from the south. Renly Baratheon wed Margaery Tyrell at Highgarden this fortnight past, and now he has claimed the crown. The bride's father and brothers have bent the knee and sworn him their swords."

[Lost Melnibonean]

And this...

"My daughter commands us to ride for King's Landing at once, to defend the Red Keep against King Renly and the Knight of Flowers." His mouth tightened. "Commands us, mind you. In the name of the king and council."

"How is King Joffrey taking the news?" Tyrion asked with a certain black amusement.

"Cersei has not seen fit to tell him yet," Lord Tywin said. "She fears he might insist on marching against Renly himself."

"With what army?" Tyrion asked. "You don't plan to give him this one, I hope?"

"He talks of leading the City Watch," Lord Tywin said.

"If he takes the Watch, he'll leave the city undefended," Ser Kevan said. "And with Lord Stannis on Dragonstone . . . "

"Yes." Lord Tywin looked down at his son. "I had thought you were the one made for motley, Tyrion, but it would appear that I was wrong." --Game

He could never abide being laughed at. That was the thing he hated most. --Feast

[Lord Martin]

Tywin had motive for sure.

But I don't see how the plot would have made its way to his ears. All of the other conspirators would have brought suspicion on themselves in the matter of Sansa Stark.

If Tywin was on board with the murder, he would have been sure to note the likely suspects in his death, Oberyn Martell, Sansa Stark, Tyrion and many others (e.g. the Antler Men).

If Tywin was on board with Joffrey's murder, he would not have been on board with Sansa going to the Vale or Highgarden. But if LF told Tywin about the plot, LF would also be suspected in Sansa's disappearance. LF wouldn't take that risk to his plans.

Same for the Tyrells, they had designs on Sansa and would have aroused Tywin's suspicions about Sansa if they suggested replacing Joffrey w/ Tommen.

Moreoever, Tywin had plans for Tyrion in the North. Admittedly they were falling apart due to Tyrion's intransigence. But he would have still wanted her as a ward of the crown for later use... perhaps marry her to Lancel or another Lannister, Daven perhaps.

And if Tywin caught wind of the plot, I doubt he'd have sat back and let it unfold. Instead, he'd have gotten involved and worked the situation to his own ends.