NFL 2012 Superbowl week: PREPARE FOR HARBAUGHGEDDON

[Independent George]

But there's penny wise and pound foolish. How much is Flacco really worth, based on his performance thus far and his potential to improve? 12 Million? I don't think it's less than that, he's come through pretty consistently for Baltimore. So maybe they are overpaying by $5 million a year. That's not exactly good, but having the qb situation solved long term certainly is. And a $5 million hit per year is hardly crippling. It's the difference between having one youngish draft pick as a starter somewhere instead of an established, good free agent.

Exactly - especially since that magic 16M is more likely to be around $12-13M in the first year, and the final year or two is likely to be re-negotiated. He'll likely be signed to a 6-year deal for $90M or so, which is in reality a 5-years/$75M. If the signing bonus is in the $25M range, that really only locks them in for 3-years. During which time, if they're uncertain, they can follow the Bill Walsh strategy of drafting QBs in the 2nd-3rd round every year, and maybe winning the lottery. And with Lewis and possibly Reed retiring, they should have the cap space to extend Ngata and restructure Suggs deals without breaking the bank.

Anyways, the key to all of this is not Flacco. It's Ozzie Newsome. He knows all of this, and more; until he's gone, Bengals fans should not rejoice.

[Mexal]

Anyways, the key to all of this is not Flacco. It's Ozzie Newsome. He knows all of this, and more; until he's gone, Bengals fans should not rejoice.

I respect the hell out of Newsome but I still agree with what Jaime said. The Ravens haven't been successful because of Flacco and if they have to start relying on Flacco to carry them then I think they start to fall, especially without Lewis or Reed. They might not be the players they were several years ago but they're still HOF players who absolutely affect the way they play. That vaunted Ravens defense wasn't all that great until the playoffs and I think they struggle in years to come which will put more pressure on Flacco to produce, especially at such a lofty price tag. We'll see what happens but I think the only way he's worth that kind of money is if you firmly believe stability is the right course. Unfortunately for them, it's an impossible situation because there is no replacement. They have to pay him and while you guys seem to think 5-7 mil additionally spent on one player isn't all that much in the grand scheme of things, it is when you're up against a cap and have to pay 53 players.

Ultimately, I don't blame the Ravens for doing what they have to do to lock Flacco up but if he gets that kind of money instead of 11-12 mil a year, then I think they made a big mistake. Unless he takes the next step or that defense magically becomes what it was, they might have a rough next year or two.

[Jaime L]

Exactly - especially since that magic 16M is more likely to be around $12-13M in the first year, and the final year or two is likely to be re-negotiated. He'll likely be signed to a 6-year deal for $90M or so, which is in reality a 5-years/$75M. If the signing bonus is in the $25M range, that really only locks them in for 3-years. During which time, if they're uncertain, they can follow the Bill Walsh strategy of drafting QBs in the 2nd-3rd round every year, and maybe winning the lottery. And with Lewis and possibly Reed retiring, they should have the cap space to extend Ngata and restructure Suggs deals without breaking the bank.

Anyways, the key to all of this is not Flacco. It's Ozzie Newsome. He knows all of this, and more; until he's gone, Bengals fans should not rejoice.

Again, this all assumes Flacco will be reasonable. And not truly shooting for Drew Brees money. Sure, these are negotiating tactics, but also keep in mind some other QB poor team is likely to offer him something in that range if he hits the open market so Flacco's team may be tempted to play hardball. Even the no-brainer Brees contract negotiation got contentious.

I think if it's $15 mil/year or thereabouts, lock him up for sure. If they play hardball, franchise him at $14.7 million for the year and have another year to assess his true value.

[Independent George]

Drew Brees money is crazy; that has to be a negotiating ploy.

Flacco's closest peers (in terms of both productivity and team role) are Eli Manning (7-years, $105M, 35M guaranteed) and Ben Roethlisberger (8 years, $102M, 33M guaranteed). Roethlisberger signed in 2008, Manning in 2009. Eyeballing some inflation for 2013, I think 7 years, $115M, $40M guaranteed is reasonable for Flacco.

[Mexal]

Drew Brees money is crazy; that has to be a negotiating ploy.

Flacco's closest peers (in terms of both productivity and team role) are Eli Manning (7-years, $105M, 35M guaranteed) and Ben Roethlisberger (8 years, $102M, 33M guaranteed). Roethlisberger signed in 2008, Manning in 2009. Eyeballing some inflation for 2013, I think 7 years, $115M, $40M guaranteed is reasonable for Flacco.

That's still a lot of money for inconsistent production.

[Independent George]

That's still a lot of money for inconsistent production.

That's the market rate for streaky-but-talented QBs that can take their teams on long playoff runs.

Aaron Rodgers will get Drew Brees money. Alex Smith will get Matt Schaub money. Flacco should get Eli Manning/Ben Roethlisberger money.

[Mexal]

That's the market rate for streaky-but-talented QBs that can take their teams on long playoff runs.

Aaron Rodgers will get Drew Brees money. Flacco should get Eli Manning/Ben Roethlisberger.

Is it? No one else is getting 16+ mil a year except for Brady, Brees and Manning. That's the market rate for a top 5 QB at the moment.

[Kalbear]

Is it? No one else is getting 16+ mil a year except for Brady, Brees and Manning. That's the market rate for a top 5 QB at the moment.

Kinda. That's what Brady signed a while back. Brees and Manning are getting 20m.

What's the market contract for a good QB right now? 20m does sound a bit high - but what's the cost of replacing him? More accurately - what's the market rate of a QB about to hit FA and who is playing in the superbowl? Because it's not just about his talent - it's about his talent combined with his availability. If he had gotten this contract done last year it would have not been as valuable. If he hits the free market and has Arizona or Jacksonville or (gasp) NYJ bidding for his services?

[Independent George]

Is it? No one else is getting 16+ mil a year except for Brady, Brees and Manning. That's the market rate for a top 5 QB at the moment.

Who else is comparable? Who are his peers?

Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers are all in the $12-14M range; Flacco will argue (with some justification) that he should be paid significantly more than them.

Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Josh Freeman are all on their rookie contracts under the old CBA.

Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, RG3 are all on their rookie contracts under the new CBA.

Who does that leave? Matt Schaub? Michael Vick? Carson Palmer? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger are the best comps - he gets more if he wins the Super Bowl, less if he loses.

[Mexal]

Who does that leave? Matt Schaub? Michael Vick? Carson Palmer? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger are the best comps - he gets more if he wins the Super Bowl, less if he loses.

I get your point. I don't really disagree with it. I just have issues with paying a guy like Flacco that kind of money when I don't even think he's a top 10 QB in the league. If Flacco, a guy who has really mediocre regular seasons but continues to win due to his team, gets paid that kind of money, I can just imagine what type of contracts future QBs will want because ultimately, his contract will dictate everyone else's who are coming up for one. And that to me is a slippery slope when you consider his actual in game production.

[Kalbear]

I think that Flacco is looking a lot like Eli Manning in his career arc; his first few years were not great but not bad, and last and this year he's been better with occasional flashes of brilliance. He'll never be a Manning or a Brady but that doesn't really matter; you don't need that to win in the league.

[Independent George]

I guess that's where we differ - while I don't think Flacco is on the level of Brady/Brees/Peyton/Rodgers, he's clearly in the upper-middle class of QBs good enough to win. I broke out how I rated them here (I downgraded Peyton because I'm projecting age/injury related decline in the future, not because I think he was anything less than great in 2012).

Except for the aforementioned Brady/Brees/Peyton/Rodgers, every quarterback in the league wins 'because of his team'. They have strengths & weaknesses which their teams have to be constructed around.

When I look at Flacco, I rate him exactly the same way I rate Roethlisberger and Eli - good enough to win, but not consistent enough to be in the top tier. I think Cutler and Romo belong in the exact same tier, but conventional wisdom rates them lower due to lack of playoff success. Rivers is an odd case in that he's been inconsistent across seasons rather than games. From 2008 through 2010, he played at the Brady/Manning level; in 2011-2012, he's been much, much worse.

[Jaime L]

When I look at Flacco, I rate him exactly the same way I rate Roethlisberger and Eli - good enough to win, but not consistent enough to be in the top tier.

I agree with most of what you're saying but this is where I can't agree.

I see a big difference in what Roethlisberger does for the Steelers than what Flacco does for the Ravens. Roethlisberger allows the Steelers offense to still be great even with an awful O-line. Even Eli stood strong and made the plays he had to make against the 49ers in that brutal NFC Championship game. I think Flacco is one of those QBs who looks great when the O-line is airtight but unlike Big Ben, unlike Eli, he wouldn't be able to lift his team to a title if the O-line isn't dominating. The difference between the streaky Flacco we saw in the regular season and the lights out Flacco of the playoffs I think is largely a function of O-line play.

Though it's possible this Superbowl matchup against the 49ers D is the perfect chance to test this theory. Here's hoping Justin and Aldon Smith are healthy.

ETA: Could be crazy but I guess that's why I still believe in Romo and Cutler over what Flacco does. The O-line disparities are like night and day.

[Mexal]

When I look at Flacco, I rate him exactly the same way I rate Roethlisberger and Eli - good enough to win, but not consistent enough to be in the top tier. I think Cutler and Romo belong in the exact same tier, but conventional wisdom rates them lower due to lack of playoff success. Rivers is an odd case in that he's been inconsistent across seasons rather than games. From 2008 through 2010, he played at the Brady/Manning level; in 2011-2012, he's been much, much worse.

I think Eli is a fair comparison to Flacco though I think Eli is asked to do significantly more than Flacco is. I think Cutler and Romo are both a cut above Flacco. I definitely rate Big Ben higher than Flacco.

It's tough.

Going into 2013, this is where I have them.

Rodgers

Brady

Manning

Brees

Big Ben

Ryan

Romo

Cutler

Stafford

Eli

Flacco

Rivers

Schaub

Now, if you add in the rookie/2nd year QBs from his past year (Newton, Luck, RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick), you could potentially slide Flacco down to 15 or so. I mean, that's still good enough to win, especially if you have all the other pieces you need (though I question the future of the Ravens' pieces) but when there are 15 players I consider better, it's tough to see the value of giving Flacco that kind of contract. For me anyway.

For the record, when I look at this list, you could probably lump a lot of these guys in a similar category. That being said, I still think any QB ahead of Flacco would have a more productive year with the Ravens than he would which is how my very quick ratings came about.

I agree with most of what you're saying but this is where I can't agree.

I see a big difference in what Roethlisberger does for the Steelers than what Flacco does for the Ravens. Roethlisberger allows the Steelers offense to still be great even with an awful O-line. Even Eli stood strong and made the plays he had to make against the 49ers in that brutal NFC Championship game. I think Flacco is one of those QBs who looks great when the O-line is airtight but unlike Big Ben, unlike Eli, he wouldn't be able to lift his team to a title if the O-line isn't dominating. The difference between the streaky Flacco we saw in the regular season and the lights out Flacco of the playoffs I think is largely a function of O-line play.

Though it's possible this Superbowl matchup against the 49ers D is the perfect chance to test this theory. Here's hoping Justin and Aldon Smith are healthy.

This is very true. The Ravens were in a free fall before they went on their run. The two major differences between the regular season and the playoffs? They got Ray Lewis back and they reshuffled the offensive line to what it is today.

[Maithanet]

Though it's possible this Superbowl matchup against the 49ers D is the perfect chance to test this theory. Here's hoping Justin and Aldon Smith are healthy.

And that, for me is what makes this super bowl very very difficult to call. The Baltimore O line held their own against Miller + Dumerville, and that is no easy task. I think that when healthy, SF's pass rush is even better than Denver's, but is it healthy? Nobody really knows, and SF's vaunted D looked pretty ordinary against Atlanta.

The difference between the streaky Flacco we saw in the regular season and the lights out Flacco of the playoffs I think is largely a function of O-line play.

I agree with this. If Flacco isn't getting much protection, he is prettymuch just a game manager qb. If he has time, he is a game manager qb who also has an excellent deep ball. The difference between those two things is the difference between Alex Smith and Ben Rothlisberger (on the field, anyway).

If SF gets to Flacco at anything like the rate they were getting to Manning in last year's NFCCG, we can just give them the trophy right now, because there is no way Flacco will get it done under those circumstances. The big question is whether they can make that happen.

[Mexal]

And that, for me is what makes this super bowl very very difficult to call. The Baltimore O line held their own against Miller + Dumerville, and that is no easy task. I think that when healthy, SF's pass rush is even better than Denver's, but is it healthy? Nobody really knows, and SF's vaunted D looked pretty ordinary against Atlanta.

Justin Smith has a 50% tear on his triceps (or biceps?). He will have surgery after the Super Bowl. It's safe to assume that the pass rush will not be the same as it is when he's healthy.

[James Arryn]

Justin Smith has a 50% tear on his triceps (or biceps?). He will have surgery after the Super Bowl. It's safe to assume that the pass rush will not be the same as it is when he's healthy.

Triceps. And Brooks now has a sprained shoulder.

[Mack Kilimaro]

Justin Smith has a 50% tear on his triceps (or biceps?). He will have surgery after the Super Bowl. It's safe to assume that the pass rush will not be the same as it is when he's healthy.

I hear there's a guy down there who can hook them up with some deer antler spray.

[Jaime L]

Relevant to the Flacco contract situation: The Ravens are already $5 million over the cap for next year and that doesn't include the $10 million raise Flacco will get either through a new contract or getting franchised. Which means they may have to release Anquan Boldin, Jacoby Jones and Paul Kruger to even get under the cap.

That said, Ray Lewis retiring has to help. Looks like he's got a $6 million cap hit that I'm assuming they're including when they say the Ravens are $5 million over.

If SF gets to Flacco at anything like the rate they were getting to Manning in last year's NFCCG, we can just give them the trophy right now, because there is no way Flacco will get it done under those circumstances. The big question is whether they can make that happen.

Yeah, as I think about it, I'm starting to lean towards us getting a shootout in the Superbowl because I don't think SF's pass rush is healthy enough to get there. And I think that Kaepernick offense will be really hard for even the Ravens to stop.

[Tempra]

Playing for NFL glory and a Super Bowl ring is fine, I guess, but now there are some real stakes on the line for Colin Kaepernick in Sunday's Super Bowl.

The San Francisco 49ers quarterback was profiled in The New York Daily News last week and gained some attention for a small section about one of his favorite restaurants.

He lives walking distance from work, and keeps an eye on all aspects of his newfound wealth. When a financial adviser flew in from New York and asked him where he would like to go out to dinner, Kaepnerick chose Red Robin, a favorite haunt of his.

"Frugal might be a generous word for Colin," [his college head coach Chris] Ault says.

An enterprising soul at the Red Robin corporate offices heard about this and soon a brilliant marketing gimmick was born. The company offered Kaepernick free food for life if he wins on Sunday.

Damn, doesn't the kid have enough pressure on his shoulders already?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/01/31/colin-kaepernick-free-red-robin/1881303/