*BOOM* Varys is working for... (new theory, EXPLAINS IT ALL, Mystery Solved!)

[Waylin Stark]

Varys didn't know about the Viserys-Arianne treaty. It was specifically designed to be hidden from him. He also never refers to it at all.

Oh! Well whose plan was Viserys+Arianne? Doran and Ser Willem Darry's? I admit I don't quite remember all this confusing Dorne business.

[The Rise of Dorne]

I don't think he's lying. Don't Bond villains reveal the truth because they think Bond is gonna die and can't do anything about it? Plus imagine how nice it would be to be able to boast about your genius plans.

As for the Purple Wedding, LF temporarily allied himself with the Tyrells, he didn't have any counter espionage ring. I'm pretty sure nobody even knows about the little birds' existence.

If LF did know about them, he would have taken steps against Varys to stop him from knowing the truth regarding his plans. So far we haven't seen any countermeasures implemented, while Varys does seem to know that LF had Jon Arryn poisoned.

Bond villain are idiots who always get caught.... Varys is supposed to be a mastermind.

Dude. Littlefinger specifically tells sansa he told her to meet in the gods wood to avoid the littlebird. Littlefinger points out the fucking littlebird to Ned in Game of Thrones. Varys even testifies about his little birds in Tyrion's trial. I mean really. come on. Did the Tyrells help him steal Sansa?

Why do you think Varys knows about Jon Arryn, where did he ever say that?

You're really reaching here man.

[Waylin Stark]

Bond villain are idiots who always get caught.... Varys is supposed to be a mastermind.

Dude. Littlefinger specifically tells sansa he told her to meet in the gods wood to avoid the littlebird. Littlefinger points out the fucking littlebird to Ned in Game of Thrones. Varys even testifies about his little birds in Tyrion's trial. I mean really. come on. Did the Tyrells help him steal Sansa?

Why do you think Varys knows about Jon Arryn, where did he ever say that?

You're really reaching here man.

Okay, I admit I was being really stupid on the Littlefinger not knowing about the little birds thing.

And I said the Tyrells and LF poisoned Joffrey, not that the Tyrells helped Sansa escape. I agree with you that he got his people to smuggle out Sansa, we've seen that in ASoS.

And regarding Varys knowing about Jon Arryn's killers, it stems from here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/79116-wow-i-never-noticed-that/page__st__60 post #68.

Yeah i'm reaching, but that's a popular new theory.

[The Rise of Dorne]

He could be talking about littlefinger. Thought littlefinger isn't part of Jon Arryn's household. And he's a lord in his own right. So he might know about Jon Arryn anyway, it doesn't have anything to do with anything. My main point is you're making all these crazy assumptions and leaps without acknowledging them. I am doing the same with thew Other thing, but I'm openly saying so and recognizing the leaps.

[The Mother of The Others]

It'd be a more blockbuster finish if all the little birds have been sacrificed to the Others for years to build up favor and then we see that favor actually bestowed upon Varys when the Others' tide sweeps the land. Varys has got no family and can't ever start one so nothing is really there to connect or root him to the place; he's got nothing to lose, nobody he's worried about safeguarding. There's no hugely apparent reason why he'd be trying so hard to salvage the realm as everyone assumes. After all he's seen of humanity, he could truly believe that humanity is horrible and deserves to get wiped out except for a few hand-picked survivors gathered around his Craster style hearth, those he's selected to start over with in his noir utopia. That'd make a truly creeptastic KL scene for the heroes to arrive at, basically a sickening ghost town with the 'ghosts' bumping around in the streets searching for brains and only a few surviviors holed up in their hovels waiting to be rescued. Then Varys' cabal awaiting in the keep. Also, it'd downgrade Aegon's Blackfyre problems to the level of "Who cares? Save us and you can be a Blackfyre or a Turquoise Fire, Chartruse, whatever kind o' Fire you want!"

[The Rise of Dorne]

It'd be a more blockbuster finish if all the little birds have been sacrificed to the Others for years to build up favor and Varys doesn't care about the survival of the realm because he's got no family and can't ever start one so nothing is really there to connect or root him to the place. There's no hugely apparent reason why he'd be trying so hard to salvage the realm as everyone assumes. He could truly believe that humanity is horrible and deserves to get wiped out expect for a Craster style hearth around which he'll be able to preserve a few chosen souls in KL. That'd make a truly creeptastic KL scene for the heroes to arrive at, basically a sickening ghost town with the 'ghosts' bumping around in the streets searching for brains and only a few surviviors holed up in their hovels waiting to be rescued. Also, it'd downgrade Aegon's Blackfyre problems to the level of "Who cares? Save us and you can be a Blackfyre, a Turquoise Fire, Chartruse, whatever kind o' Fire you want!

I KNOW RIGHT! I love this theory so much. It ties everything up in a nice little bow. It just hangs together so freaking well. I need get George to write this, if it isn't what he was planning. Cause otherwise Varys is kind of an idiot. And the Others are kind of a side show.

[The Mother of The Others]

Scarier yet is what if he's arguably right? Somebody surviving is better for the realm than nobody surviving, right? If your real politic is real enough, you'd consider this as a way of hedging humanity's bets. It's the same kind of politics we've seen all along, only taken to the ultimate extreme. From Varys' perspective, he's taking the best available option by doing the Craster thing. The hero characters will have another quite different idea for how best to fend off the cold ones and save the day, of course. But Varys would be thinking, "What if their tactic fails? I can't afford to stand by and do nothing. Those of us who are able should each try to salvage a remnant of humanity in our own ways, so that humanity has more than one line of defense. We need diversity in our attempts, to give us the best chance of survival. Mine might be the attempt that saves us all."

[SpareBoot]

I KNOW RIGHT! I love this theory so much. It ties everything up in a nice little bow. It just hangs together so freaking well. I need get George to write this, if it isn't what he was planning. Cause otherwise Varys is kind of an idiot. And the Others are kind of a side show.

That would be a sick idea, a bit crackpot, but thats what I love about it. Varys leading a new world order because of sacrificing little birds over the years to the others?

I still think Varys is a guy who has a contingency plan for everything. fAegon and Dany dont make it to KL, he'll go to plan D

[The Rise of Dorne]

Well Craster demonstrates the Others are not unreasonable. We don't even know what they do with his sacrifices. They could raise them, as I said if Craster was 60, Varys could even be his son. So some sort of Children of the Forest type deal could be worked out. The Others get everything North of Dorne or North of the Trident or Varys builds them a fleet and provides them with men to sail to essos. or whatever. The Others are probably better than some of the lords in Westeros.

[The Rise of Dorne]

up?

[SpareBoot]

But then if he was sold and cut, his manhood thrown to the flames, how does that fit with the Others? He hates fire so much he (reaching on the crasters son thing) sacrifices children to 'ice', a fate he himself somehow escapes? I like this idea, not fully convinced he's been dealing his birds to the Others a la Craster. At this point, however, anyones guess is as good as mine as to what Varys' endgame.

[Magic 8 Ball]

Varys tells us exactly why he does it.

"For the children"

Not in the sense most people take it. Varys seems fairly sociopathic. He has no children, and can't produce any, barring crackpottery.

As a sociopath, he can't possibly care what happens after his life, given no vested interests to look after.

Varys lives for Varys in the moment.

He does it "for the children"

Get it?

He has found a profession that provides the opportunity and reasons to obtain a steady stream of children to both use and pleasure himself with, and dispose of them for convenience reasons when they reach a stage that is "beyond his tastes".

So yes, he does it "for the children" the same way a rock musician or rapper does it "for the chicks".

[Azzazel]

Varys is worse than a bad guy. He's a bad guy who thinks that is doing the best thing for the realm.

[FrozenFire3]

Just out of curiosity, is Varys' age mentioned or guessed at anywhere? I find this an intriguing theory, but he'd have to be near 70 as Maekar died in 233.

Nope, it is not. No description of his age... strange, isn't it? Aerion died in 232 AL. If we take 232 as his infant son's birth year, he should be about 65 at the beginning of the saga (Robert dies in 298 AL). When he was appointed by Aerys (after Duskendale, 276 AL) he had already quite a story in Essos. He has then been Master of Whisperers for more than 20 years. Chronology is not that far-fetched...

[Cruella]

He has found a profession that provides the opportunity and reasons to obtain a steady stream of children to both use and pleasure himself with, and dispose of them for convenience reasons when they reach a stage that is "beyond his tastes".

all that man needs in Westeros for that, is some amount of money. Not even that much of it, as children of starving people would be sold cheaply. There is definitely no need for elaborate plans.

How would have Others, in this theory, approach Varys for the deal? Or vice versa?

another believable (to me) idea, other than Blackfyre one, which sounds very convincing, is that Varys is simply enjoying the game, playing same trick he did in Pentos with Illyrio - steal something and then return it for money. He can't leave ordinary legacy after him - he'll have no real heir. But while he lives, he plays with destiny of entire kingdom.

[jon rr stark]

What about when he says he is doing it for the children he means the CotF.

[The Rise of Dorne]

all that man needs in Westeros for that, is some amount of money. Not even that much of it, as children of starving people would be sold cheaply. There is definitely no need for elaborate plans.

How would have Others, in this theory, approach Varys for the deal? Or vice versa?

another believable (to me) idea, other than Blackfyre one, which sounds very convincing, is that Varys is simply enjoying the game, playing same trick he did in Pentos with Illyrio - steal something and then return it for money. He can't leave ordinary legacy after him - he'll have no real heir. But while he lives, he plays with destiny of entire kingdom.

Well first of all no one has to make an approach. Varys could have just learned of the Others and started working to what he believes to be their benefit.

second, the voice from the flames Varys says he heard could have been the "great other"

third, there are all those crazy glass candles. there's blood raven recruiting bran from thousands of miles away, there's daavos who sailed north of the wall as a smuggler. there's mance who walked right into King Roberts court at Winterfell.

fourth, Varys could be one of Craster (or someone else's ) sons given to and raised by the Others and his whole back story before Pentos is a lie.

In short, there are any number of ways.

[The Rise of Dorne]

P.S. I'm still yet to hear any actual support for this Blackfyre "theory" why is it that Varys is supposed to want to help the Blackfyres? If he is supposed to be a blackfyre, where's the evidence of that? And then what's this new nonsense about Varys' having a sister, where the proof of that? That sister was married illyrio?

[Scipio Africanus]

P.S. I'm still yet to hear any actual support for this Blackfyre "theory" why is it that Varys is supposed to want to help the Blackfyres? If he is supposed to be a blackfyre, where's the evidence of that? And then what's this new nonsense about Varys' having a sister, where the proof of that? That sister was married illyrio?

There is no proof. There is no cake. The cake is a lie...

No seriously its all circumstancial. There are numerous textual references that Aegon is a Blackfyre (Illyrio's comment "a dragon is a dragon", his wife Serra and the fact he got emotional when he knew he wouldn't see Aegon again, the tavern sign depicting a dragon which turned red through rust and the red dragon being the sigils of the Blackfyres). This, combined with the prophecy of the mummer's dragon, lead to the theory Varys is a Blackfyre (him being the mummer, and Aegon a Blackfyre). Or at the very least serving the Blackfyre cause up till now.

His story of his youth I wouldn't trust anyway, especially his "I hate magic" comment. I think Varys is not telling us a lot of things about who he really is. But if Martin revealed his true/full backstory it would kill a lot of mystery surrounding Varys.

[The guy from the Vale]

The idea is that yes, Varys is a Blackfyre. Note that he shaves his head - is he trying to hide his hair color?

Moreover, and here the interesting part begins, there's a connection between Varys and Illyrio's second wife Serra: Both were born in Lys, they are about the same age (Serra probably a little younger), and both were entertainment slaves: Varys as a mummer, Serra as a bed slave. They are also, seemingly, two of the three only people Illyrio ever cared about: Varys, Serra - and Young Griff.

The idea that Varys himself is a Blackfyre largely comes from that connection. Because the (well-supported) theory that Young Griff is a Blackfyre usually rests on the assumption that his mother was Serra Blackfyre, and, again, Serra and Varys share a background.

So let's go one step further: Why would Illyrio be fAegon's father? There's the clear fondness Illyrio has for fAegon, something he seems to have for noone else save his dead wife Serra (and, as we see in AGoT Arya III, to some degree for Varys). Illyrio has a statue modeled in his likeness in his youth by a famous sculptor, but in his youth, Illyrio was a poor bravo. So someone else who looks like Illyrio must have been the actual model for the statue - and fAegon is described in exactly the same terms as the statue. So there's a similarity between fAegon and young Illyrio, apparently. Then there's the fact that Illyrio has children's clothes, some years old because the moths have fed on them. So some time ago, he had a child in his house, no older than 5 or 6, considering the clothes are a little too small for Tyrion. But why never mention this child he had? And why would he keep these clothes until they have sentimental value for him?

So why is Serra a Blackfyre then? First of all, Illyrio has very specific knowledge about the Blackfyres: He knows they are exstinguished in the male line. Most of Westeros assumes they were exstinguished proper. So where would Illyrio get that knowledge, unless he is inside some Blackfyre conspiracy? Then there's also the fact that Myles Toyne signed a treaty with Illyrio and Varys (JonCon was not part of that treaty!) to helo fAegon. But Myles Toyne was from a family of famous Blackfyre supporters, and had himself fought for Maelys Blackfyre. Why would such a person fight for a Targaryen? I don't see it - unless he'd be really fighting for a Blackfyre.

Lastly, there's the symbolic and parallel development: On the symbolic level, the mummer's dragon prophecies of ACoK and ADwD and the tale of the black dragon rusted red, told by Septon Merribald in AFfC. Lastly, the parallel inside GRRM's body of work: before fAegon appeared, there was already a young man who painted his hair blue and was accompanied by a gay supporter: that was Daemon II Blackfyre.