The Rundown of the Dance of Dragons 2.0

[Maxxwell]

If this is the degree of ambiguity he is aiming for, then shit, how is anyone not supposed to get paranoid about the obvious. That said, the idea of Jon commandeering all three dragons is a little too sweet to stomach.

Jon=3heads, does not mean that he will commandeer all three dragons.

At least you admit it's not PURELY Jon fandom. But the Jon fandom probably helps. Personally, I think if every single character we talk to assumes "the dragon has three heads," means three people, it PROBABLY means the dragon has three heads means THREE PEOPLE. There's "subtle" and then there's "take a hint already!"

No, it's definitely not going to be what's been hinted at for the first five books. I'm almost certain that the prophecy will be fulfilled in an unexpected way, read the quote that Nirolo mentioned above. And Jon is not an obvious choice by the way.

[The Idiots Lantern]

That's only two red herrings by my count.

One of those "red herrings" is a character who's roughly responsible for a third of the story. GRRM is going to great lengths to waste our time, I'll say that much.

I never stated anywhere that Jon and Dany were going to marry, if you paid attention to my theory about Dany's death, I never said her child was Jon's, but Tyrion's. Don't put words in my mouth.

So long as she dies doing the female thing that she should have been able to do in the first place instead of all that magical messy stuff that screwed everything up.

Anymore than Tyrion putting crossbow bolt into Tywin on the privy wasn't a fitting end for someone as skilled in politics and war as Tywin,

Fitting end for the World's Worst Father though; considering the damage he'd done to his offspring.

or Ned getting beheaded with his own sword?

Fitting end for the World's worst politician.

Characters in the series seldom get ends fitting for them.

They do get ends that they deserve, one way or another. They don't randomly die at the hands of characters who just happen to be there. Everyone dies the way they died for a reason.

Not Snow, Targaryen. No offense, but now I get the impression that your just looking to get offended.

I'm not looking for anything besides faulty logic.

GRRM seldom has for the obvious,

He's even more seldom repeatedly lied and made the lie a pinnacle of the mythology of the world. The three headed prophesy is a very important myth that goes back thousands of years. For every single person along that road to just happen to be interpreting it wrong requires a heck of a coincidence.

nearly everyone assumed that after Ned had just confessed that he was going to be spared, but Joffrey had him beheaded anyway,

What does this prove? He didn't behead him according to any prophesy, and it was entirely a Joffery move to kill someone just because he could. And this proves GRRM's willingness to zig when he looks like he's going to zag, not that he outright lies to the reader about important parts of the worlds backstory.

and everyone assumes that line of House Targaryen is extinct in the male line, but there's Jon.

...So they ARE extinct in the male line. Jon is pure Stark grimness. There's no dragon fire in him. To have an heir who doesn't know, or care, or even like the house you think he should inherit and lead is a death in and of itself. There's none of the old Targaryan culture in Jon, and none of it will live through him.

In Dunk and Egg, every character thought the line of dragonkings was secure with the multiplicity of princes, but the grey plague came and later Robert's Rebellion.

And the Targaryans fell, and were sent into exile. What does this prove? Dunk and Egg's people opporated on the best conventional wisdom of the time, but times change. What does this prove?

To do that you would have to ignore/discount every other character in the story like Arya and Brienne.

Who you like, so you still count them. My favorite character is a red herring, GRRM's elaborate ploy to pull the wool over our eyes, but the ones you like will have "important parts to play" in the story.

What can they do? Will they fight the others, or will they be yet more people who will make Jon king? Because one of those things is much, much more impressive then the other one...

You seem to be making a mountain out of a molehill with Jon being AA.

AA will basically single-handedly save the world with a magic sword. That's a pretty big mountain to me. Stakes don't get much higher then that. What can you really DO, storywise, that competes with that, no matter who you are?

It's only obvious if you visit these forums, but otherwise it isn't explicitly stated in the text but in clues throughout the books.

You keep insisting this, yet my father and mother, who can't even tell you what a forum even is, and my sister, who wouldn't be caught dead near one, have all pegged it. My sister even swore off reading the next book after what happened to Jon in his last chapter, she was so sure he was The One. She'll yield, but she and my dad are SO pissed off...

I never stated that anywhere, now you just seem to be acting provocative, no offense.

That she'll be rescued by Jon or that Littlefinger isn't really important? Because he's not. He's important to the Game, but the Others are coming for everyone, and it's only a matter of time before that Game doesn't matter anymore....

[PatrickStormborn]

I have a couple of points to make.

Dany is one of the major characters in this series. She is not just a "red herring". Her role in the series is not to be a red herring.

A lot of ASOIAF has been fairly predictable/obvious, apart from the twists that happen within a single book (i.e. Oberyn's death - it would have been impossible to predict after ACoK that he'd die against the Mountain, because he hadn't been introduced). I can't help but feel that too many readers are being fooled by the idea that GRRM is just throwing gratuitous twists in the series (this is particularly obvious when you see readers calling for the early deaths of Jon, Dany or Tryion "because it would shock us").

Yes, even R+L=J is obvious. All fantasy readers are familar with the ~hidden heir~ trope (which is why I hope GRRM subverts it and keeps Jon as a Targaryen bastard). Anyone who knows what to look for would be able to find it. But the way GRRM used it to gauge Benioff and Weiss' knowledge of the series makes me think that GRRM probably thinks it will be a shocking twist... in which case, I have to wonder how surprising his other "twists" will be.

So far, the foreshadowing for "the dragon has three heads" seems to be that the first (central) head will be a woman, and the other two heads will be men. Everyone else in the series so far thought it was the opposite; Rhaegar thought Aegon would be the central head, with Rhaenys and even a Visenya (why else do you think he chose Lyanna - the Knight of the Laughing Tree?!), and perhaps even Aegon the Conqueror thought he would be the central head, with his sisters as the other two heads of the dragon. But it will turn out that they were wrong. (ETA: It also appears to be foreshadowed when, after Viserys tells Dany it's her fault that Rhaegar ran away with Lyanna for not being born earlier, Dany says it wouldn't have happened if he had been born a girl. If Viserys had been born a girl, Rhaegar might have kept believing that he was the Prince who was Promised. My theory is that he stopped believing he was the Prince because he thought he'd need two sisters.)

Or, you know, the central head was just a dude the whole time, except he's also the other two heads!!! Wow, creative. GRRM misled us into thinking that the series was interesting and different, but it was just like every other fantasy the whole time.

[The Ash Tree]

I have a couple of points to make.

Dany is one of the major characters in this series. She is not just a "red herring". Her role in the series is not to be a red herring.

She's a major character, but she's a red herring when it comes to this one theory, not the entire story.

Yes, even R+L=J is obvious. All fantasy readers are familar with the ~hidden heir~ trope (which is why I hope GRRM subverts it and keeps Jon as a Targaryen bastard). Anyone who knows what to look for would be able to find it. But the way GRRM used it to gauge Benioff and Weiss' knowledge of the series makes me think that GRRM probably thinks it will be a shocking twist... in which case, I have to wonder how surprising his other "twists" will be.

I used to think that it's obvious too. But after reading a lot of reviews on Amazon I changed my mind. Everyone there is crying about the fact that Ned's bastard died before knowing that his mother is Wylla, and hardly anyone thinks he's going to be resurrected, let alone being AA/TPtwP.

[PatrickStormborn]

I used to think that it's obvious too. But after reading a lot of reviews on Amazon I changed my mind. Everyone there is crying about the fact that Ned's bastard died before knowing that his mother is Wylla, and hardly anyone thinks he's going to be resurrected, let alone being AA/TPtwP.

Of course not everyone is aware of the theory, but it's still obvious to anyone who's looking. Pretty much everyone who hears of the theory agrees with it (and those who don't agree with it tend to admit that they just don't want it to be true).

Seriously, anyone who types "Jon Snow's mother" into google will see "Lyanna" come up straight away. I've never encountered a fan theory as popular or as widely accepted as this one.

[The Ash Tree]

Of course not everyone is aware of the theory, but it's still obvious to anyone who's looking. Pretty much everyone who hears of the theory agrees with it (and those who don't agree with it tend to admit that they just don't want it to be true).

Seriously, anyone who types "Jon Snow's mother" into google will see "Lyanna" come up straight away. I've never encountered a fan theory as popular or as widely accepted as this one.

It's obvious if you know what you're looking for, and you go back and look for it. And it becomes especially obvious if you look for the answer online. But that's not how most people read these books. So called casual readers will finish a book like aGoT without getting all the details in, and if they hear a name like Wylla dropped off they'll keep that in mind and move on. The majority of readers will not go back and do any rereads or look for answers online. Or at least that's what GRRM thinks.

Also, I'm almost certain that over half of the people who say that R+L=J is obvious did not get it on their first read.

[PatrickStormborn]

It's obvious if you know what you're looking for, and you go back and look for it. And it becomes especially obvious if you look for the answer online. But that's not how most people read these books. So called casual readers will finish a book like aGoT without getting all the details in, and if they hear a name like Wylla dropped off they'll keep that in mind and move on. The majority of readers will not go back and do any rereads or look for answers online. Or at least that's what GRRM thinks.

Also, I'm almost certain that over half of the people who say that R+L=J is obvious did not get it on their first read.

It was obvious to me that Lyanna was Jon's mother as soon as the term "bed of blood" was used, particularly as it was used in a Dany chapter to mean she was giving birth. And from there, it's not hard to figure out that Rhaegar was the father.

Didn't GRRM's partner even say something about R+L=J being obvious? I went through the SSM for conventions recently, and I'm pretty sure that's what I read.

But my original point was that R+L=J is fairly obvious to work out, and GRRM still seems to view it as a shocking twist considering that he used it to gauge Benioff and Weiss' commitment to the series. Therefore it seems unlikely to me that GRRM will throw gratuitous twists that have very little textual basis - and the three dragon heads being one person has very little textual basis as far as I can tell.

[Dicer]

Of course not everyone is aware of the theory, but it's still obvious to anyone who's looking. Pretty much everyone who hears of the theory agrees with it (and those who don't agree with it tend to admit that they just don't want it to be true).

They are not agreeing with it because it's a trope. They are agreeing with it because GRRM has given the readers hints and placed clues and a careful analysis of those hints and clues tells the reader with an eye for these things that something is fishy about Jon's parents. For people who are avid fans the idea then gains popularity and even if the readers don't catch it when they read about it, they catch it when they visit message boards.

I would not like it if GRRM did not give us any of these clues and suddenly proclaimed Jon as a Targ in book 7 just because he did not want it to be obvious to anyone. That's just bad writing.

There are also quite a few readers who miss these clues or don't spend time on the forums. One only has to go to a youtube video for the show and someone comments with R+L=J and suddenly we have 20 people who are surprised that Ned is not Jon's father. But now they know and they then pass that information on. It's not the author's fault if it became too obvious because of the speed at which information passes in this day and age.

As long it's well written, I don't care if it's a trope or already been done or cliche. I still enjoy the hell out of Tolkien even though that's a traditional good vs evil story where good triumphs at the end. I think if Tolkien wrote his books now he would have been lambasted for being 'cliche'.

I think I have started hating the words 'subverting the trope' and 'deconstructing the trope'. I am not reading the books so as to write my thesis on it. I don't have a checklist next to me to see if he is subverting the trope as I am reading the books. It's fantasy. There are dragons and direwolves and giants and the evil Others. It's not going to bother me too much if Jon is or is not the head of dragons or if it's Dany or it's Tyrion or it's Bran or it's Sam. That it's an entertaining read and GRRM has laid out the pieces of the puzzle which point to the answer when it's revealed is all that matters to me.

[PatrickStormborn]

Snip

Cool post, but I'm not sure what the point is??? I said that Jon fills a trope, and anyone familiar with fantasy would be able to pick out his parents straight away. I didn't criticise GRRM's writing or storytelling. I just said that I hope he subverts the trope a bit because it's so over-done. Sorry for sharing my view, I guess? :dunno:

[Llort Suoivbo]

I remember that all I felt during the ToJ chapter the first time was confusion, who's this and who's that? and who's Lyanna again? And by the time I finished the book I had forgotten about the entire thing. I suspect that this is what most "casual readers" thought too.

But now I've heard about the theory online and it all seems obvious to me...

[Dicer]

Sorry for sharing my view, I guess? :dunno:

And I was sharing mine :cheers:

The same old, tired arguments about characters and plots being cliche and over done is in itself becoming cliche and overdone. Anytime Jon is brought up, any discussion revolving his plots has to include the words cliche. If the only argument against him becoming AAR or PTWP or a dragon head or the great Other or whatever is that it's cliche, then I don't consider that to be enough to make the case against why he should not be any of those things. In my opinion.

And for the record Dany being any of these things would also be equally cliche in the fantasy genre.

[The Ash Tree]

And I was sharing mine :cheers:

The same old, tired arguments about characters and plots being cliche and over done is in itself becoming cliche and overdone. Anytime Jon is brought up, any discussion revolving his plots has to include the words cliche. If the only argument against him becoming AAR or PTWP or a dragon head or the great Other or whatever is that it's cliche,then I don't consider that to be enough to make the case against why he should not be any of those things. In my opinion.

And for the record Dany being any of these things would also be equally cliche in the fantasy genre.

I think that most people believe that Martin is beyond writing anything cliche for some reason, despite the fact that the books contain a lot of cliches.

[PatrickStormborn]

I think that most people believe that Martin is beyond writing anything cliche for some reason, despite the fact that the books contain a lot of cliches.

Nope. It's just that I don't actively want to read about any cliches, particularly with regards to the ending of the series.

And I was sharing mine :cheers:

The same old, tired arguments about characters and plots being cliche and over done is in itself becoming cliche and overdone. Anytime Jon is brought up, any discussion revolving his plots has to include the words cliche. If the only argument against him becoming AAR or PTWP or a dragon head or the great Other or whatever is that it's cliche, then I don't consider that to be enough to make the case against why he should not be any of those things. In my opinion.

That was not my argument, so I'm genuinely confused by what you're trying to say.

I said that Jon being the only head of the dragon is not particularly based on textual evidence.

Jon being the hidden heir is the only thing I've called cliche so far. So please, find someone else to bleat at.

And for the record Dany being any of these things would also be equally cliche in the fantasy genre.

Yup, fantasy series always include a female hero who sacks cities and has crucified slavers.

[The Ash Tree]

Well, GRRM has said that the ending is going to be bittersweet, which is cliche in and of itself.

[chrisdaw]

Are you still pushing that only Dany will have real dragons? Surely that bird has flown.

[Dicer]

Yup, fantasy series always include a female hero who sacks cities and has crucified slavers.

Fantasy has had plenty of female heroes who do questionable things. I just finished reading the Mistborn Trilogy by Sanderson whose main character Vin, a female hero with powers, kills quite a few innocent people. Of course she is not a princess growing up in a strange land who wants to avenge the death of her family like Dany (Another cliche and trope) or have special dragons (Cliche) to help her on her way. Hence she does not sack cities or encounter slavers to crucify like Dany because she has her own storyline where she has to overcome her enemies.

[Le Dragone]

snip

Thanks. I was planning on reading it, but now I guess I don't have to... :)

[Dicer]

Thanks. I was planning on reading it, but now I guess I don't have to... :)

Sorry for spoiling the book. I have removed the spoiler. Maybe you could edit your comment to remove my spoiler from it?

Sorry once again. Completely slipped my mind that I was giving away what happens in the book.

[Pero the first of His name]

I do not think i was ever the one to say something like this but...

Please move Dany vs Jon AAR discussion out of here.

Only comment on it if you have a good theory about the rundown of the 2nd dance and it is a part of it.

[The Ash Tree]

I do not think i was ever the one to say something like this but...

Please move Dany vs Jon AAR discussion out of here.

Only comment on it if you have a good theory about the rundown of the 2nd dance and it is a part of it.

Perhaps you can start applying this advice yourself.

And how can you discuss DoD 2.0 without talking about Jon and Dany?