(f)Aegon. Who is he really?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

@Apple Martini -

1) I know, I'm just using Stannis attack from the War of the five kings as an some kind of analogy; Tyrion and Cersei knew that Tommen's life is in danger (as an heir) , and they (although not together :) ) did what they could to to remove him from KL. So, it sound logical to me that Elia had similar thoughts.

A few crucial differences:

1. The Lannisters knew that Stannis was going to invade. The Targaryens didn't know for SURE that Tywin was trouble until he started sacking.

2. They did try to get Tommen out, yes. What they did not do is switch him with someone else.

2)Well, it is easier to smuggle only beby, but that's not crucial. It's safer, that's crucial. It would be much more difficult to smuggle and hide both of them; to find, for example, doubles for both of them.

Aegon, as an heir was more important. And safer, if smuggled, and later, hidden alone. It's impossible choice for Elia, but - maybe logical.

Why bother trying to pull a "switch" when they could've just smuggled the kid out? Convenient that the poor thing's face was destroyed, too. Convenient after the fact, I mean.

[TheCrannogDweller]

This is the give away. You don't die cradling an imposter while your child dies alone. The imposter dies alone in a crib.

If a baby is crying, you try to comfort it - no matter if it's yours or not.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Don't get snappy at me now.

What I meant was that Aegon being real explains their actions much better than him being a Blackfyre pretender.

And no, if someone comes to you while the city is being sacked and tells you: "I can save your baby" you don't haggle over the price. Plus, Rhaenys was nowhere near her mother when Tywin got to King's Landing.

Why leave a double for Aegon? Because Robert was about to become King and he would never have rested if he knew that Rhaegar's son was alive.

We don't know the exact timeline or circumstances of the switch, if there even was one, which I highly doubt. For all the fast-paced confusion going on, you don't think it was mighty convenient to find a baby with Targaryen coloring in Flea Bottom on such short notice? That doesn't strike you as perhaps a tad too neat? And Rhaenys was, what, a floor or two down in the castle. Hardly an insurmountable distance.

If you don't think the Blackfyre pretender explanation makes sense, I suggest you do some reading on here. There are quite a few threads that explain it very well if you're willing to make the effort to find and read them.

You mean the way Robert never rested and actively sought Viserys (just as much the Targaryen heir as an alive Aegon would've been, by the way) and Dany ... oh wait. He didn't do any of that until Dany's marriage posed an actual tangible threat.

[lady m]

If a baby is crying, you try to comfort it - no matter if it's yours or not.

And leave your own child completely alone? No.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

And leave your own child completely alone? No.

And there would've been other servants and nurses around to pass off the, ahem, "fake."

[Despot]

@ Apple Martini

Well, yes, Tywin sacked the city at the end. Elia (and others) didn't expect that, for sure. But, they expected Robert's forces to come. Tywin just showed up first.

So, I presume they were expecting Robert's forces to come - and that sound like a enough reason to hide the heir.

Concerning the "switch" : Well, here I don't have a perfect answer. But, I can speculate : The "switch" of a baby was 1)safer, because, nobody will know that Aegon isn't there and 2) Because of Aerys ( if switching took place earlier, some time before the sack)

[TheCrannogDweller]

And leave your own child completely alone? No.

Your child is supposedly on his way to safety.

We don't know the exact timeline or circumstances of the switch, if there even was one, which I highly doubt. For all the fast-paced confusion going on, you don't think it was mighty convenient to find a baby with Targaryen coloring in Flea Bottom on such short notice? That doesn't strike you as perhaps a tad too neat?

Sure, it was too convenient. What if Varys had planned for it? There was a bit of time between the Trident and the Sack. And fwiw, the whole switch might've even been prepared to get Aegon away from Aerys, if Rhaegar came back and didn't manage to follow through with his plans for change.

My point is, I don't think it was a spur of the moment kind of thing - i think the plan was a failsafe mechanism to ensure a Targaryen heir survived.

If you don't think the Blackfyre pretender explanation makes sense, I suggest you do some reading on here. There are quite a few threads that explain it very well if you're willing to make the effort to find and read them.

I've read some of them, yes. I'm not convinced.

You mean the way Robert never rested and actively sought Viserys (just as much the Targaryen heir as an alive Aegon would've been, by the way) and Dany ... oh wait. He didn't do any of that until Dany's marriage posed an actual tangible threat.

Being the son of the beloved Crown Prince is a bit more prestigious than being the son of the Mad King, wouldn't you agree?

Plus, Robert hated Rhaegar, not Aerys.

Plus, Tywin says something along the lines that even Robert knew that Rhaegar's children had to die.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

@ Apple Martini

Well, yes, Tywin sacked the city at the end. Elia (and others) didn't expect that, for sure. But, they expected Robert's forces to come. Tywin just showed up first.

So, I presume they were expecting Robert's forces to come - and that sound like a enough reason to hide the heir.

Concerning the "switch" : Well, here I don't have a perfect answer. But, I can speculate : The "switch" of a baby was 1)safer, because, nobody will know that Aegon isn't there and 2) Because of Aerys ( if switching took place earlier, some time before the sack)

Still doesn't explain why they didn't just smuggle the kid out and been done with it.

Consider this: If the baby's face hadn't been destroyed (again, very convenient in hindsight), it's possible the "fake" would've been discovered soon enough anyway. If that's the case, then what's the point? The "switch" seems to work in hindsight only because we (and Varys) already knew that the kid's face was unrecognizable. But there was no way to foolproof predict that until AFTER IT HAD ALREADY HAPPENED.

This Aegon is not the Aegon. I'll keep pointing it out until it sinks in.

<snip>

To be blunt, this sounds much more contrived than any of the Blackfyre theories.

At the end of the day, Viserys was the Targaryen heir in exile and Robert didn't give a shit. I fail to see how Aegon would have been any different.

And really, apart from Varys (who's a professional liar) and JonCon (who's in denial and never knew the kid until he was already a small child), where's the evidence that the kid's real? What are you basing it on, besides the cover story?

[Runaway Penguin]

Robert hated Aerys as well. There was this little matter of murdering few High Lords and their sons, among them brother and father of Ned Stark, and calling for Ned's and Robert's head.

[lady m]

Your child is supposedly on his way to safety.

I'm not talking about Aegon. Elia had two children. Rhaenys, her daughter was found by Amory Lorsch hiding under her father's bed on a completely different floor from Elia and Aegon. So she died alone and terrified while Elia tried to protect a fake, it's completely illogical and against the norms of a concerned mother.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Consider this: If the baby's face hadn't been destroyed (again, very convenient in hindsight), it's possible the "fake" would've been discovered soon enough anyway.

By whom? Everyone who has taken care of him were probably slaughtered during the Sack.

ETA:

I'm not talking about Aegon. Elia had two children. Rhaenys, her daughter was found by Amory Lorsch hiding under her father's bed on a completely different floor from Elia and Aegon. So she died alone and terrified while Elia tried to protect a fake, it's completely illogical and against the norms of a concerned mother.

Didn't Rhaenys get scared and run off? Besides, the Sack probably happened really fast.

[King Aerys the Just]

None of that explains why Varys wouldn't have taken Rhaenys along just for the sake of it though. It wouldn't have made the plan noticeably more difficult or risky than it already was, and having two live heirs is better than having one. Especially when Aegon is a baby in a pseudo-medieval setting, meaning that there'd be a very real risk of him dying from some disease within his first few years regardless of what else happens.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

By whom? Everyone who has taken care of him were probably slaughtered during the Sack.

You don't think someone had to verify the identity? There had to be a pretty damn good reason they thought they were being given Aegon and not just some random child. Please.

[Despot]

@Apple Martini

Well, you have a point there.

I know, I said in my first post that I think that Aegon died during the sack (so, that there wasn't any switching at all) - but I added that I found that strange (that Elia did nothing) . And suddenly discussion started :D It was just a side note.

[lady m]

Didn't Rhaenys get scared and run off? Besides, the Sack probably happened really fast.

And her mother made zero attempt to save her? It couldn't have happened that fast, they have to make it from the gates through the city, get into the Red Keep, and then get into Maegor's Holdfast, both of the latter would have been guarded.

[TheCrannogDweller]

You don't think someone had to verify the identity? There had to be a pretty damn good reason they thought they were being given Aegon and not just some random child. Please.

One of the Kingsguard probably. And the one who was there just happens to be the son of the man who is trying to buy his position with those two dead kids. Plus, finding the kid in Elia's arms is a proof enough.

ETA:

And her mother made zero attempt to save her? It couldn't have happened that fast, they have to make it from the gates through the city, get into the Red Keep, and then get into Maegor's Holdfast, both of the latter would have been guarded.

IIRC, Tywin sent Lorch and Clegane to scale the walls and kill the kids ahead of his main force.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

And her mother made zero attempt to save her? It couldn't have happened that fast, they have to make it from the gates through the city, get into the Red Keep, and then get into Maegor's Holdfast, both of the latter would have been guarded.

I'll also point out that if Varys can't get a small girl out of that castle, his knowledge of the Red Keep is embarrassingly overstated. "Ooooh I'm the Spider, Master of Whispers and I can't get a little girl out a giant castle." Pathetic. If he can get Tyrion out, he could've gotten Rhaenys out. Hell, he got friggin' ILLYRIO in and out of there with no one noticing, and people are arguing that smuggling Rhaenys out would've been too much?

One of the Kingsguard probably. And the one who was there just happens to be the son of the man who is trying to buy his position with those two dead kids. Plus, finding the kid in Elia's arms is a proof enough.

Targaryen look can't be that god-like if even pissant kids in Flea Bottom can have it.

ETA: I notice that your avatar is Bloodraven's sigil. Aegon actually being alive would be news to him, given that he seems to think Jon's the king. Oops?

I'll ask again: Apart from Varys and JonCon's cover story, what evidence is there that this Aegon is the real one?

[lady m]

IIRC, Tywin sent Lorch and Clegane to scale the walls and kill the kids ahead of his main force.

And how does that negate any of what I said? Do they not have to get past a hostile force to scale walls?

[King Aerys the Just]

IIRC, Tywin sent Lorch and Clegane to scale the walls and kill the kids ahead of his main force.

They were still barricaded inside the strongest part of one of the strongest keeps in Westeros, though. Even if it was lightly held it would have taken Gregor and Lorch a good deal of time and effort to get inside.

[Despot]

Apple Martini - Do you find Elia's behavior ( sitting there with her kids and waiting enemy to come ) logical ?

EDIT: spelling mistake, one of countless today