(f)Aegon. Who is he really?

[kephv]

Even if Aegon is real, they most likely would've had to get rid of Dany and Viserys (or at least Viserys) at some point. They were simply a distraction.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I have no evidence - I just have logic. I'm saying that the support Illyrio and Varys gave to Viserys and Dany makes absolutely no sense if Aegon isn't a Targaryen.

If you had read the Aegon-Blackfyre threads as closely as you say you have, you'd have already seen the argument that Illyrio and Varys were NEVER "supporting" Viserys and Dany. They were the sideshow distraction — hell, Illyrio flat-out tells Tyrion that he expected Dany to die out in the Dothraki Sea. Very supportive of him, no?

In all likelihood, here's the original plan.

1. Marry Dany to Drogo and use the Dothraki to invade Westeros to fight Robert, something that ultimately would have failed. Another reason Varys and Illyrio were never supporting Dany and Viserys: A Dothraki invasion would never have worked, and Robert is expecting (read: will be ready for) more than twice the number of men that Drogo actually has; he probably got the info from Varys. Why, if Varys wants Dany and Viserys to succeed with the Dothraki, would he tell Robert that Drogo had 100K men when he really only had 40K? Why not lie and say that Drogo had 20K when he really had 40K? It makes no sense.

2. The Dothraki invasion fails but everyone is mad at Dany and Viserys for invading and at Robert for not protecting them. In swoops Aegon to save the day, fight off the weakened adversaries and chase out his evil aunt and uncle and oh yeah that usurper too.

The plan had to be adapted, sure, but the original one isn't that hard to root out.

Incidentally, we have logic too. And prophecy. And thematic symbolism. And historical parallels ...

They have Viserys. Why create a fake Targ when you have a real one?

... Because they don't want a real one? Just spitballing here but you come this close to answering your own question.

[BeWareOfMyHouse]

Illyrio and Varys realise that under the guise of a Targ, Aegon has a much better chance of taking the throne.

Support of loyalists, support of Dany, support of Dorne etc.

Exactly. Nobody in Westeros would support an outed Blackfyre at this point in time, especially after the Blackfyres have been suppressed in not one, but three different rebellions/attempted invasions. The only way a Blackfyre can take the throne at this point is by deception. Varys and Illyrio are correct in this calculation.

Again, the biggest indicator that Aegon is really a Blackfyre, imo, is the presence of the Golden Company. Why would TGC laugh at Viserys Targaryen, but then support another trueborn Targaryen only a few years later? It's not logical at all.

It follows, then, that Aegon is a Blackfyre.

[yolkboy]

They have Viserys. Why create a fake Targ when you have a real one?

I'm not quite sure what you mean. They want to unveil Aegon as a Blackfyre at the most opportune moment.

This would be when Aegon is safely sat on the throne, with much of the dog work having been done by Targ supporters, who only supported because they believed him to be a Targ.

[King Aerys the Just]

I'm not quite sure what you mean. They want to unveil Aegon as a Blackfyre at the most opportune moment.

This would be when Aegon is safely sat on the throne, with much of the dog work having been done by Targ supporters, who only supported because they believed him to be a Targ.

Why would they ever want to unveil Aegon as a Blackfyre though? It sounds like suicide to me under almost any circumstances. I take it that for Illyrio and Varys simply knowing inside that they "won" would be enough.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm not quite sure what you mean. They want to unveil Aegon as a Blackfyre at the most opportune moment.

This would be when Aegon is safely sat on the throne, with much of the dog work having been done by Targ supporters, who only supported because they believed him to be a Targ.

I disagree with this — I don't think they ever plan on outing him as a Blackfyre.

[yolkboy]

I disagree with this — I don't think they ever plan on outing him as a Blackfyre.

we'll see.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

we'll see.

I don't see the point, really. Nothing to gain from it but a hell of a lot to lose.

[King of Winters]

we'll see.

If they do then people will rebel against him because they thought they were fighting for a Targ not a Blackfyre.

[Buried Treasure]

Riddle me this, those who argue that Aegon is legitimate:

Why did the Golden Company, a mercenary group of exiled Westerosi that supported the Blackfyres -- famed for never breaking a contract -- break their contract with Myr to come support Young Griff? They don't support any old Targs, seeing as how Dany recalls Viserys being laughed out of the room; and YG's position is really no better than Viserys' is.

Um I don't think Aegon is the real deal but it is pretty clear why the GC broke their contract. Homeless Harry wanted to honour the secret contract with Jon C and Illyrio, and the rest of the company followed his orders. They had no clue why the contract was broken until the officer corps got restless whilst waiting at Volantis. They managed to keep YG's secret for a few weeks until they all boarded ships to Westeros but would anybody ever trust two dozen men to keep any secret indefinately? Everybody knows somebody always spills, three men can keep a secret if two of them are dead and all that. Does Varys and Illyrio's great plan really hinge on guys like Franklyn Flowers staying loyal and keeping their silence?

[yolkboy]

I don't see the point, really. Nothing to gain from it but a hell of a lot to lose.

I don't see why the Blackfyres would go to all the effort, decades of planning, to rule in secret. Pride must be a factor. To have your banner flying.

It's been hinted that Dany and Aegon might fight at some point. (beware the mummers dragon / slayer of lies), and i don't know how else Aegon would be outed as fake if Varys/Illyrio don't come clean.

I also think Dany will have donated a dragon by then. Aegon will be powerful.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't see why the Blackfyres would go to all the effort, decades of planning, to rule in secret. Pride must be a factor. To have your banner flying.

It's been hinted that Dany and Aegon might fight at some point. (beware the mummers dragon / slayer of lies), and i don't know how else Aegon would be outed as fake if Varys/Illyrio don't come clean.

I also think Dany will have donated a dragon by then. Aegon will be powerful.

I think the satisfaction is more internal on the part of Varys and Illyrio. So long as they know, that's what matters.

And Dany would probably see Aegon as a fake/mummer's dragon even if he was real; that doesn't require him to be outed. And he might be outed at some point, but I don't think Varys and Illyrio are stupid enough to put the kid on the throne and then publicly declare that he's a Blackfyre.

[King Aerys the Just]

I don't see why the Blackfyres would go to all the effort, decades of planning, to rule in secret. Pride must be a factor. To have your banner flying.

It's been hinted that Dany and Aegon might fight at some point. (beware the mummers dragon / slayer of lies), and i don't know how else Aegon would be outed as fake if Varys/Illyrio don't come clean.

I also think Dany will have donated a dragon by then. Aegon will be powerful.

There can be lots of other ways. Maybe Dany stops by in Pentos during her campaigns to reach Westeros (the Tattered Prince will want the city for example) and meets Illyrio again, and something happens there and/or between them that makes Dany doubt Aegon's legitimacy. Meaning that she could land in Westeros with intentions to take up hostilities against him straight away.

Varys and Illyrio revealing who Aegon really is to the world just for the hell of it would be idiotic, and go against at least the former one's Modus Operandi completely.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Incidentally, we have logic too. And prophecy. And thematic symbolism. And historical parallels ...

When you put it that way, it does make sense. There is still the possibility that he might be Brightflame's descendant, though.

[LightSpectra]

This I can't agree with. If the plan is to keep who Aegon really is as secret as possible, so secret that he doesn't even seem to know that he is a Blackfyre himself, then I very much doubt that anybody in the Golden Company knows about that either. They likely believe that the Blackfyres have died out decades ago, which is why they would support an (as far as they know) red dragon as well as a black nowadays, as long as it gets them home.

Ah, but they verily mocked Viserys; and let's be frank, it's not as if his situation was more tenable than Young Griff's.

We don't know what YG believes about himself; we don't have his POV. We know that he affirmed what Tyrion has assumed about him. We know JonCon thinks he's the real deal.

Um I don't think Aegon is the real deal but it is pretty clear why the GC broke their contract. Homeless Harry wanted to honour the secret contract with Jon C and Illyrio, and the rest of the company followed his orders. They had no clue why the contract was broken until the officer corps got restless whilst waiting at Volantis. They managed to keep YG's secret for a few weeks until they all boarded ships to Westeros but would anybody ever trust two dozen men to keep any secret indefinately? Everybody knows somebody always spills, three men can keep a secret if two of them are dead and all that. Does Varys and Illyrio's great plan really hinge on guys like Franklyn Flowers staying loyal and keeping their silence?

They don't have to keep the silence for very long. Once Aegon's on the Iron Throne, it doesn't particularly matter to anybody if he's a red or black dragon.

[Red Knight]

i kind a dislike aegon and the new elements he brings into story, i think he is fake, perhaps a blacckfyre but dont really care, dany is the chosen one in my eyes

[yolkboy]

I think the satisfaction is more internal on the part of Varys and Illyrio. So long as they know, that's what matters.

Above all, i believe that Varys is proud and ambitious. He's not gone to these extraordinary lengths to have a back slapping, nudge nudge wink wink session with Illyrio. He wants to start a dynasty.

And if Aegon is never outed, the Blackfyre name will be lost forever when V & I pass away.

I agree it's risky, but Varys will pick an opportune moment. I think there will be a civil war (of some kind) and maybe a dragon dance.

But that's just, like, my opinion.

[Buried Treasure]

They don't have to keep the silence for very long. Once Aegon's on the Iron Throne, it doesn't particularly matter to anybody if he's a red or black dragon.

The Hell it won't! If lords flock to Aegon's banner because he is Rhaegar's son and it turns out he isn't they won't consider their oaths valid. By Targaryen law the Blackfyre line was attaited, so the distinction does matter.

[Dr. Pepper]

The Hell it won't! If lords flock to Aegon's banner because he is Rhaegar's son and it turns out he isn't they won't consider their oaths valid. By Targaryen law the Blackfyre line was attaited, so the distinction does matter.

Just like how the lords flocked to Joffrey's banner only to discover that he wasn't Robert's son thus making their oaths invalid? Oh wait...

[lady m]

And if Aegon is never outed, the Blackfyre name will be lost forever when V & I pass away.

But you also have to remember that the basis of the Blackfyre claim is that they are the true heirs of Aegon IV, not Daeron II. So, to those who support the Blackfyre putting one of their own on the throne is a restoration of the rightful Targaryen royal line much further back than 17 years.

When you put it that way, it does make sense. There is still the possibility that he might be Brightflame's descendant, though.

I don't think anyone arguing Aegon is fake would dismiss him also being related to Aerion, though I will say I think it more likely for him to be descended from Aerion and a Blackfyre of the female line than just Aerion. What is being posed is that he is not Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen.