Stannis' recruitment plans

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

You're partly right. He's rigid and consistent and often literal, but often not. He's as sarcastic as Tyrion and sarcasm is never literal.

“Who better to command the black cloaks than a man who once commanded the gold, sire?”

“Any of you, I would think. Even the cook.”

Does Stannis literally think the cook would be as effective a LC as Slynt?

"Had I shown him the contents of my privy, he would have called that admirable as well"

So he literally believes Lord Celtigar would call his poop admirable?

"It is swords I need from them, not kisses."

When Jon is speaking of winning the smallfolk's love. This is clearly not literal either.

I could go on, but there's so many examples I don't think it's necessary.

He is precise and he is blunt and he is detail oriented and that often is synonymous with "literal" but there are too many examples of him being anything but to assume he always is.

I meant those numbers are irrelevant to the discussion, not irrelevant in general. The number of men in other armies has nothing to do with whether or not he was being literal with his demand for 20k sellswords.

It's not a huge assumption. It's completely standard to point out that Lords tend to pick the side who is winning, and that Stannis, despite being rigid, has shown plenty of times that he is willing to accept the surrender of his enemies if they are willing to fight for him. So if Stannis starts winning, some will flip to him. Especially considering how many Northmen hate the Boltons, who are the alternative.

As to Robb's will, that's a thorn that none of us can predict at this point. Yet it has nothing to do with whether or not Stannis was being literal.

Lets try and put this to bed...shall we? Stannis gave Justin Massey a detailed and exact royal command. To collect coin from the IB and hire reputable sellsword companies (we know the GC is out). He told Massey to acquire at least 20,000 men, but not a man less than that. This is not up for debate. Stannis ordered Justin Massey to hire 20,000 + troops, but not less than 20,000.

How you can derive that Stannis was not literal in this order is beyond me. We know that Massey does not have to send them all at once, as Stannis wants as many bowmen as possible sent to him immediately. But make no mistake, Stannis sent for at least 20,000 men and that is what he expects.

I suppose he was not being literal we he made Ser Justin swear to seat his daughter on the iron throne if he dies? Maybe he meant for Ser Justin to marry Shireen himself and seat himself at Storm's End?

[Cybvep]

TBH if the effects of harsh winter are at least semi-realistic, armies will be constrained by logistics more than anything else. Considering that Stannis' troops (several thousand men) basically had to eat their own horses, I think that it's likely that Stannis won't be able to concentrate all of his mercenaries in one place and he certainly won't travel with them all the way south by land (if he wants to keep his army more or less intact, that is). However, 20k men could help the NW at the Wall.

I actually pity Stannis. He will be the first King to face the Others. This cannot end well.

[gougef]

Sounds like Stannis is manning the wall more than anything to hold off the Others

TBH if the effects of harsh winter are at least semi-realistic, armies will be constrained by logistics more than anything else. Considering that Stannis' troops (several thousand men) basically had to eat their own horses, I think that it's likely that Stannis won't be able to concentrate all of his mercenaries in one place and he certainly won't travel with them all the way south by land (if he wants to keep his army more or less intact, that is). However, 20k men could help the NW at the Wall.

I actually pity Stannis. He will be the first King to face the Others. This cannot end well.

20K at the wall, especially archers with obsidian arrows or flame arrows against the wights, would be worth 10 times that number anywhere else.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I actually pity Stannis. He will be the first King to face the Others. This cannot end well.

If Stannis and the NW can get hold of more dragonglass (Dragonstone) they will have a chance. If not, the Others will have 20k more undead troops to add their legions.

[Cybvep]

IMO things are not looking good for Stannis and the NW, because of the logic of storytelling, if nothing else. Just think about it for a moment. If the Others never cross the Wall, then we will be like "Huh? So what was all the fuss about?". That would be rather anticlimatic. The Others need to become a credible threat to the Realm - they need to score some serious victories, the Wall needs to fall. Only then they will be defeated. Somewhere along the way, we will also learn what the Others planned to do, because I don't think that GRRM plans to make them 100% evil.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

IMO things are not looking good for Stannis and the NW, because of the logic of storytelling, if nothing else. Just think about it for a moment. If the Others never cross the Wall, then we will be like "Huh? So what was all the fuss about?". That would be rather anticlimatic. The Others need to become a credible threat to the Realm - they need to score some serious victories, the Wall needs to fall. Only then they will be defeated. Somewhere along the way, we will also learn what the Others planned to do, because I don't think that GRRM plans to make them 100% evil.

My biggest question if whether the Others can go around the Wall (by sea). Or does the barrier extend in an imaginary line that runs east and west indefinitely? It seems they could have control over powerful ancient creatures like undead krakens, sharks, and whales. When they are ready to move, they will cause massive damage.

[Cybvep]

The Wall is obviously magical, so I wouldn't be surprised if the same magic that maintains the Wall also kept the Others at bay. However, the wights probably don't care about this, so who knows? I mean, they are already dead, so maybe they can just enter the Bay of Seals and attack Eastwatch-by-the-Sea? If the current isn't strong enough, they could WALK on the seabed and emerge on the eastern coastline.

[jonalame]

The Wall is obviously magical, so I wouldn't be surprised if the same magic that maintains the Wall also kept the Others at bay. However, the wights probably don't care about this, so who knows? I mean, they are already dead, so maybe they can just enter the Bay of Seals and attack Eastwatch-by-the-Sea? If the current isn't strong enough, they could WALK on the seabed and emerge on the eastern coastline.

See: The Bridge of Skulls

[NewJeffCT]

Lets try and put this to bed...shall we? Stannis gave Justin Massey a detailed and exact royal command. To collect coin from the IB and hire reputable sellsword companies (we know the GC is out). He told Massey to acquire at least 20,000 men, but not a man less than that. This is not up for debate. Stannis ordered Justin Massey to hire 20,000 + troops, but not less than 20,000.

How you can derive that Stannis was not literal in this order is beyond me. We know that Massey does not have to send them all at once, as Stannis wants as many bowmen as possible sent to him immediately. But make no mistake, Stannis sent for at least 20,000 men and that is what he expects.

I suppose he was not being literal we he made Ser Justin swear to seat his daughter on the iron throne if he dies? Maybe he meant for Ser Justin to marry Shireen himself and seat himself at Storm's End?

I'm sure Stannis was being literal as well. However, the exact quote from the Theon chapter is "But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

So, it's not just bows, it's swords as well. Judging from how long these trips take in the books, Massey is going to be gone many months, if not a few years. In Winter, how long is it going to take sellswords for Tyrosh or Lys to get back to Eastwatch from when Massey leaves Stannis' side? A year? Two years? And, how many sellswords are available in these cities, all of them bigger than any Westerosi city outside of King's Landing & Oldtown. And, I think Braavos is bigger than King's Landing as well. So, it's possible that Massey could find enough men in Braavos if he learns the Golden Company is not availb.e

Then, does Massey go beyond the Disputed Lands to Volantis if he finds "only" 15,000 between Braavos, Myr, Lys and Tyrosh? (Hasn't Volantis also hired sellswords - presumably many from the Disputed Lands - to go after Danerys in Meereen? - meaning, Massey won't have as many sellswords available to him.)

[Bright Blue Eyes]

TBH if the effects of harsh winter are at least semi-realistic, armies will be constrained by logistics more than anything else. Considering that Stannis' troops (several thousand men) basically had to eat their own horses, I think that it's likely that Stannis won't be able to concentrate all of his mercenaries in one place and he certainly won't travel with them all the way south by land (if he wants to keep his army more or less intact, that is). However, 20k men could help the NW at the Wall.

I actually pity Stannis. He will be the first King to face the Others. This cannot end well.

20,000 is a magic number for army sizes. It is the biggest army to be reliably supplied under normal circumstances (no Kingsroad to KL under their asses, but no winter conditions either).

Therefore, if Stannis requests 20,000 men, he either expects no reinforcements from anywhere else, not even the Mountain Clans to stay loyal to him - or he intends to split his armies. Fun fact: he has targets below the Neck and beyond the Wall. Putting separate armies into the field is sensible. And somebody has to be in command of the second one. His Hand Davos Seaworth as the natural candidate is dead. That's unlikely to be lost on Justin Massey.

[aryagonnakill]

20,000 is a magic number for army sizes. It is the biggest army to be reliably supplied under normal circumstances (no Kingsroad to KL under their asses, but no winter conditions either).

Therefore, if Stannis requests 20,000 men, he either expects no reinforcements from anywhere else, not even the Mountain Clans to stay loyal to him - or he intends to split his armies. Fun fact: he has targets below the Neck and beyond the Wall. Putting separate armies into the field is sensible. And somebody has to be in command of the second one. His Hand Davos Seaworth as the natural candidate is dead. That's unlikely to be lost on Justin Massey.

Davos should have commanded the ships into the blackwater, in his mind he tells us he would have been more cautious and done a better job. But land war is completely different and Davos is a sailor. I think a northerner makes the most sense.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

20,000 is a magic number for army sizes. It is the biggest army to be reliably supplied under normal circumstances (no Kingsroad to KL under their asses, but no winter conditions either).

Therefore, if Stannis requests 20,000 men, he either expects no reinforcements from anywhere else, not even the Mountain Clans to stay loyal to him - or he intends to split his armies. Fun fact: he has targets below the Neck and beyond the Wall. Putting separate armies into the field is sensible. And somebody has to be in command of the second one. His Hand Davos Seaworth as the natural candidate is dead. That's unlikely to be lost on Justin Massey.

Davos is not dead. He is very much alive and working to secure the loyalty of House Manderly and many other northman for Stannis. You have it right in that he is thought to be dead.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I'm sure Stannis was being literal as well. However, the exact quote from the Theon chapter is "But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

So, it's not just bows, it's swords as well. Judging from how long these trips take in the books, Massey is going to be gone many months, if not a few years. In Winter, how long is it going to take sellswords for Tyrosh or Lys to get back to Eastwatch from when Massey leaves Stannis' side? A year? Two years? And, how many sellswords are available in these cities, all of them bigger than any Westerosi city outside of King's Landing & Oldtown. And, I think Braavos is bigger than King's Landing as well. So, it's possible that Massey could find enough men in Braavos if he learns the Golden Company is not availb.e

Then, does Massey go beyond the Disputed Lands to Volantis if he finds "only" 15,000 between Braavos, Myr, Lys and Tyrosh? (Hasn't Volantis also hired sellswords - presumably many from the Disputed Lands - to go after Danerys in Meereen? - meaning, Massey won't have as many sellswords available to him.)

How long did it take Victarian to reach Essos? Years? I think not. With fast ships and favorable winds, the troops can be back to Westeros in time to make some kind of difference.

The numbers won't be the problem. Braavos and the other free cities are big cities like KL or Oldtown. The problem will be the quality of troops available. All the good companies are presently engaged in the Meereen affair. But Massey will not have trouble finding bodies.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Davos should have commanded the ships into the blackwater, in his mind he tells us he would have been more cautious and done a better job. But land war is completely different and Davos is a sailor. I think a northerner makes the most sense.

Maybe. But the Hand of the King is the number one candidate for that position. Justin Massey fulfils this role in the gift chapter. Swearing to seat Shireen on the throne? Right up the Hand's alley.

Davos is not dead. He is very much alive and working to secure the loyalty of House Manderly and many other northman for Stannis. You have it right in that he is thought to be dead.

I know. But neither Stannis nor Massey. They work with what they know.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Maybe. But the Hand of the King is the number one candidate for that position. Justin Massey fulfils this role in the gift chapter. Swearing to seat Shireen on the throne? Right up the Hand's alley.

I know. But neither Stannis nor Massey. They work with what they know.

I agree that Stannis feels that Massey is the best of what he has left, outside of Davos. He is the most likely candidate to take up Stannis' cause should Stannis die. However, I am not so sure of Ser Justin's loyalties as others are. House Massey served House Targaryen for 300 hundred years and House Baratheon for only twenty or so. Massey may see a golden opportunity to go to Dany.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I agree that Stannis feels that Massey is the best of what he has left, outside of Davos. He is the most likely candidate to take up Stannis' cause should Stannis die. However, I am not so sure of Ser Justin's loyalties as others are. House Massey served House Targaryen for 300 hundred years and House Baratheon for only twenty or so. Massey may see a golden opportunity to go to Dany.

I like this theory. Never thought of it.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I like this theory. Never thought of it.

Massey seems honorable, but we know he is ambitious most of all.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Massey seems honorable, but we know he is ambitious most of all.

hmm... Although I like it, the theory kinda seems to go nowhere. Dany's army is already going to be strong with Unsullied, Dothraki, Iron born, and the freed slaves plus whatever reinforcements she can get from Westeros itself. Maybe he convinces the Iron Bank to support Dany if he say Stannis is dead?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

hmm... Although I like it, the theory kinda seems to go nowhere. Dany's army is already going to be strong with Unsullied, Dothraki, Iron born, and the freed slaves plus whatever reinforcements she can get from Westeros itself. Maybe he convinces the Iron Bank to support Dany if he say Stannis is dead?

He could turn the bank in Dany's direction, but think about it:

1. Massey provides invaluable intel about the North. He has seen what is going on at the Wall. I know Marwyn is going to Dany, but Massey can give her first-hand knowledge.

2. He could put more swords and ships in her hand using the IB's coin. More is always better than less. At the same time, it denies resources to an enemy.

3. He can facilitate the survival of House Baratheon. Dany likely won't be in a forgiving mood when she lands in Westeros. Retribution against houses Lannister and Baratheon are at the top of the list. It will be his way of making it up to Stannis.

4. He can rally the Crownlands on Dany's behalf. From AFFC, we know that the Crownlands are still very much pro-Targaryen.

[Lord Varys]

We don't know how many Free Companies do exists. The Yunkish envoy only got as far west as Volantis, we don't if there are companies in/near Lorath, Braavos, Pentos, and Myr. If the Iron Bank has connections to sellsword companies - and this is not unlikely - the very fact that Stannis has struck a deal with the bank may motivate sellswords to flock to his representatives in Braavos. If not, then there seem to be a lot of bravos in Braavos who try to prove themselves in combat. And if the Iron Bank is one of the real power players behind the scenes in Braavos - perhaps along with the Faceless Men - the new Sealord may actually enter the war in Westeros on Stannis' side. The Iron Bank seems to be willing to risk a lot of additional money to get Robert's and Joffrey's loans back.