Stannis = Pink Letter (+ TGNC) = Dead Stannis?

[Steve Moss II]

Ha! Everyone knows the team is Jon the ranger and Sam the wizard.

[three-eyed monkey]

Nice OP, Mrlukeduke, and thanks for the kind words.

Stannis and the GNC are on a collision course as far as I can see. Stannis wanted to restore Winterfell to the son of Eddard Stark and make Jon his Warden of the North, in a move he hoped would win him the support of the North. But I also believe that the north have their own plans and want Jon to be KitN, (the most likely content of Robb's will IMO). This is the crux as Stannis will suffer no other king in the 7K.

I think Stannis will defeat the Freys and probably use a ruse to gain entry to Winterfell. He'll have plenty of help inside the walls when it comes to taking out the Boltons, but what then? He'll be surrounded by thousands of Northmen, with only about a thousand men loyal to him. I like Stannis a lot, but I fear for him.

The interesting variables are Jon's stabbing and the return of Davos. Not sure how they might affect things but it still boils down to Kot7K v KitN. Stannis considered Robb a traitor to the Iron Throne and the North only bent the knee to the Targs because of their dragons, something Stannis does not have.

The Others' invasion would be an issue too, obviously, but I think the Winterfell arc will be resolved somehow before that happens as GRRM has put a lot of work into the set up. Roll on TWoW.

[redriver]

My take on the GNC is that it's paramount in the minds of the northmen that a Stark is restored to Winterfell and the Boltons destroyed.Whether this is as King (or Queen) in the North,or Warden is secondary.

I don't think the north will turn on Stannis,but if/when he secures Winterfell,he should announce the Twins as his next primary target.That will secure plenty of northern support for obvious reasons.

Though what happens with the Wall and the Others may interrupt these plans.

[aryagonnakill]

My take on the GNC is that it's paramount in the minds of the northmen that a Stark is restored to Winterfell and the Boltons destroyed.Whether this is as King (or Queen) in the North,or Warden is secondary.

I don't think the north will turn on Stannis,but if/when he secures Winterfell,he should announce the Twins as his next primary target.That will secure plenty of northern support for obvious reasons.

Though what happens with the Wall and the Others may interrupt these plans.

With a quick stopoff at Torrhens Square.

[HannibalStark]

My interpretation of the GNC, albeit based on flimsy evidence, is that the Lords are working to get Rickon to Winterfell (bring me back my liege lord) and reveal Jon as a claimant to the Iron Throne via Howland Reed, and that is why they wanted to keep as much attention away from Jon in the Davos chapters at White Harbor. So I do not see Stannis as necessary to their cause, and will likely send him on his way to the Nightfort as a respect of the Guest Right

I saw those carrying Robb's Will through the boggs as a way to introduce Howland Reed...instead of him just popping out of nowhere, Hey Westeros, anyone want to know who Jon's parents are?

At this point R+L= J seems to either be a secret that was not really a secret or a huge red herring....

But I think the readers have been waiting for Howland Reed to appear... and him sheltering those sent North by Robb with his will (people Robb trusted) and them dropping by to see Howland on their way North gives them and Howland a chance to chat and a reason for Howland to make an appearance and hopefully clear up a few things...and it gives the Northman a reason to trust who Howland says he is and a reason to believe him instead of some random Bog Devil no one has seen just showing up and making wild claims about Ned's non bastard, bastard.

At least thats what I thought when I read about the parties Robb sent North through the Neck with his banner...plus it gives a reason for Jon to be brought up in the first place if Jon is Robb's chosen heir. Howland can then mention, actually Jon is.... (whatever he ends up being)

[three-eyed monkey]

^ I don't think we know what happened Robb's will. The parties Robb sent into the neck were carrying false orders in case they were captured, I don't think it ever mentions that they had Robb's will with them.

[HannibalStark]

^ I don't think we know what happened Robb's will. The parties Robb sent into the neck were carrying false orders in case they were captured, I don't think it ever mentions that they had Robb's will with them.

He sent at least two parties....one with false info and one supposedly with real orders...I believe the one with Maggie Mormont or whatever her name is, I read to have to real orders....but in that we do NOT really know for sure WTF actually happened is correct. Thats why it gives a good reason for Howland to make an appearance, so that he can clear a few things up, with whichever party ended up finding him.

I am pretty sure that there WERE REAL orders, a real will, or whatever...sent along with a party carrying false info as well, but I am certain that REAL whatever was sent with false info. I don't think everything Robb sent with his men into the Neck was false...whats the point of that? The Bog Devils know there land better than anyone. It seems a safe bet that one or both parties made it into the Neck, and possibly into the hands of Howland Reed....I don't see the point of everything being false..but it would make sense to send both something true AND something False...just in case.

[HodorForKing]

If jon really died ( I mean definetely), the new of his death will only reach Stannis and the Northern Lords after the end of the battle. If they lose (what seems unprobable for me), they might retreat back to the wall; if they win, they might take over Winterfell, and then move on to the Dreadfort, that is the only fortress in the north that will not be in his favour after that victory. so after this Stannis troops will be: 1 in the wall or 2 Winterfell/marching towards Dreadfort or south, while Wyman, will be 1 dead or 2 by his side. If his plans to crown Jon are true when the notices of Jons fate reach Wyman, he'll know that his plan was ruined, and that his only means to achieve his objective of crowning a King in the North, is giving the crown to Rickon, and ruling in his name until he comes of age (basically what happened with Tommen and Cersei). the only problem is that Rickon will be in the hands of the most Stannis-devotee man in westeros; so all depends if Davos will or will not discover about the great northern conspiracy, and hand Rickon to Stannis instead of Wyman, if he hands him to Wyman, Stannis may be killed, or another war will start in the north; if he hands him to Stannis, Rickon will become the lord of Winterfell, the northern houses we'll stay by the side of Stannis, and the GNC will fail unless Wyman gives fight...

this means that Davos will have the norths fate in his hands, and probably his lord's life aswell.

[Rhoynar]

It's out of character for Stannis to write such a letter.

[shewolfofthenorth]

one thing that I noticed in the letter, is that there is a line that reads something like, "send them to me and I will not trouble you or your black crows." I think this very line tells a lot about who could have written the letter. Isn't it only the Wildlings that call the men of the night's watch "crows"? I don't recall stannis calling the night's watch men "crows", but I could be wrong.

[Boarsbane Baratheon]

I've said this before, the north doesn't have the strength to continue their KitN status. Putting a stark in Winterfell won't change the fact that the most reputable lords and fighters are either dead or captured. If they don't get Jon, which I'm pretty sure they won't seeing as how he has a hard on for the watch, then they have a 6 year old for a king. Whatever manderly or one of the umbers rules through him. They aren't really revered for their tactical minds, and with the Bolton army gone there really isn't much left. Too many broken armies. Green boys and old men, or scattered men. And I really doubt manderlys army is worth shit if these guys keep using tridents in battle... There's a time and place boys, you can't all be Oberyn Martell status. The mountain clansmen are there best bet. So what 4, 5 thousand men? If they do decide to go KitN it will be a pretty short reign, and they'll be bending the knee before the end of the series.

As for stannis writing the letter... It does seem out of character but I think the whole point of Stannis character is that he tends to go OUT of character. He's changed throughout the series and since the info in the letter was so privileged there aren't too many candidates. The part that really drew me to this was the "it may be true". When I read that in the chapter I was like WTF...? You may hear im dead AND it may be true?

[three-eyed monkey]

one thing that I noticed in the letter, is that there is a line that reads something like, "send them to me and I will not trouble you or your black crows." I think this very line tells a lot about who could have written the letter. Isn't it only the Wildlings that call the men of the night's watch "crows"? I don't recall stannis calling the night's watch men "crows", but I could be wrong.

Yoren is referred to as 'crow' in one of Arya's chapters in ACoK.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I've said this before, the north doesn't have the strength to continue their KitN status. Putting a stark in Winterfell won't change the fact that the most reputable lords and fighters are either dead or captured. If they don't get Jon, which I'm pretty sure they won't seeing as how he has a hard on for the watch, then they have a 6 year old for a king. Whatever manderly or one of the umbers rules through him. They aren't really revered for their tactical minds, and with the Bolton army gone there really isn't much left. Too many broken armies. Green boys and old men, or scattered men. And I really doubt manderlys army is worth shit if these guys keep using tridents in battle... There's a time and place boys, you can't all be Oberyn Martell status. The mountain clansmen are there best bet. So what 4, 5 thousand men? If they do decide to go KitN it will be a pretty short reign, and they'll be bending the knee before the end of the series.

As for stannis writing the letter... It does seem out of character but I think the whole point of Stannis character is that he tends to go OUT of character. He's changed throughout the series and since the info in the letter was so privileged there aren't too many candidates. The part that really drew me to this was the "it may be true". When I read that in the chapter I was like WTF...? You may hear im dead AND it may be true?

So then what do they do? Do they stay connected to an Iron Throne that has refused any help to them while a horde of undead gets ready to attack? Or do they reinforce Moat Cailin, protect the east through Manderly, send envoys to the Iron Islands with Asha and/or Theon to dispute Euron's claim and build an alliance, while asking help from Aegon and Dany?

[Joe Pine]

So then what do they do? Do they stay connected to an Iron Throne that has refused any help to them while a horde of undead gets ready to attack? Or do they reinforce Moat Cailin, protect the east through Manderly, send envoys to the Iron Islands with Asha and/or Theon to dispute Euron's claim and build an alliance, while asking help from Aegon and Dany?

It's all down to whether the wall is breached, what you've suggested is sensible enough until then.

Once the Wall breaks, The north has to do what the wildings did. Get everyone together concede the ground and head south.

The only place I'd guess that the WW can't get into might be Winterfell if a Stark is there due to speculation on other threads.

[Ludd]

In a world where Winter is coming the North will not matter much to the Iron Throne, Chances are they will successfully secede.

[Boarsbane Baratheon]

Like Jon pine said its all about when the wall falls, I'm guessing they'll eliminate te freys with stannis and from there it's up in the air. But my guess is they'll have to make their stand against the WW at that point while the southerners duke it out

[KingHodorTargaryen]

It's all down to whether the wall is breached, what you've suggested is sensible enough until then.

Once the Wall breaks, The north has to do what the wildings did. Get everyone together concede the ground and head south.

The only place I'd guess that the WW can't get into might be Winterfell if a Stark is there due to speculation on other threads.

Head south, no. The most south they will willingly give is Winterfell. Why? Every person killed, every unwarned small folk, means one more walker or one more wight. They can't afford to give up half of their realm.

[Varok Saurfang]

I find it extremely unlikely that Stannis will even die, if he dies so does the Baratheons male line, and if Val is to be believed, the female line (Shireen) is already dead. I don't think the books will end without any Baratheons left, so if Stannis dies Martin will have to legitimatize some bastards, that may happen either way though.

And also, the North remembers, that goes for bad and good things, Stannis has helped them alot, they will honor him.

I don't think Stannis has any need for concerns regarding the northern houses, the honorable ones at least.

[Joe Pine]

Head south, no. The most south they will willingly give is Winterfell. Why? Every person killed, every unwarned small folk, means one more walker or one more wight. They can't afford to give up half of their realm.

In the face of the WW and wights, gathering the remaining population and forming a column like Mance did is a sensible option.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

In the face of the WW and wights, gathering the remaining population and forming a column like Mance did is a sensible option.

Mance had the protection of the Wall he could hide behind. The north, no so much. Word takes time to travel. It would be too late in most cases. They cannot afford to go into potentially hostile territory, in the middle of winter, while losing way too many people to Others only to turn around and fight again.