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Early saga Stannis wasn't bright.


The Frosted King

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You assume he knew of the shadows.

You assume that Mel is wrong and Stannis had enough "fire" for three "sons".

You assume that distance is irrelevent.

You assume that the Lannisters would have given up, and not use Myrcella, or someone else from the Lannister Clan, labeling Stannis a traitor who is outside of the succession.

That's just off the top of my head...

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Stannis didn't know of the shadows until it was used on Renly. And after that, the more he used the weaker he got, according to Melisandre. She implied that one more would have killed him.

Also, they seemed to be used when there was no other choice. For instance, when Stannis was about to fight an army four times his size, or when Stannis was needed to take an untakeable castle.

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He could have won earlier using conventional means if he had acted as soon as he heard about Robert's death. He wasted months doing nothing and only really acted well into ACoK. Imagine a scenario in which as soon as Ned is captured, Stannis sends a bird to Robb offering aid in getting Ned back and informing Robb about the twincest. Then while Robb gathers swords at WF, Stannis can sail North with his full navy and strength and land at WH and the two can meet up at MC.

Mace probably wouldnt have crowned Renly either if he knew that Stannis has the support of the North and the Riverlands(and maybe the Vale).

Stannis early on in his campaign made a ton of mistakes.

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The problem that I have with him not knowing about the shadows is, why then did he agree to sleep with Mel? As Stannis relates to use several times he is a very honorable guy and I don't think he would break his vow unless Mel explained to him the exact purpose.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha

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It is worth repeating, Stannis did NOT DECIDE to use a Shadow assassin on Renly. It was Melissandre that told him Renly was fated to die on a specific night, provided he marched against Renly. Stannis decided to bank her "prophecy," not realizing Melisandre was going to make the prophecy happen by using magic.

Now, it also bears repeating that Renly had already crowned himself king, and had built up the largest army. Renly did not know of the incest at the time, and when he found out, he decided it didn't matter either way. His swords would make him king. And he had a lot more swords then Stannis, Joffrey, and Robb. Maybe combined they could take him down, but they were very, very fragmented. By killing Renly, Melisandre killed the strongest claimant militarily, converted his men into Stannis's men, and gave Stannis a clear route into taking King's Landing.

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It is worth repeating, Stannis did NOT DECIDE to use a Shadow assassin on Renly. It was Melissandre that told him Renly was fated to die on a specific night, provided he marched against Renly. Stannis decided to bank her "prophecy," not realizing Melisandre was going to make the prophecy happen by using magic.

Now, it also bears repeating that Renly had already crowned himself king, and had built up the largest army. Renly did not know of the incest at the time, and when he found out, he decided it didn't matter either way. His swords would make him king. And he had a lot more swords then Stannis, Joffrey, and Robb. Maybe combined they could take him down, but they were very, very fragmented. By killing Renly, Melisandre killed the strongest claimant militarily, converted his men into Stannis's men, and gave Stannis a clear route into taking King's Landing.

Ah, at first glance, yes. But the Renly thing is a perfect example of prophecy biting you in the ass. Melisandre thinks she sees Renly taking the capital and moves to make sure it doesn't happen. Renly's dead, the Tyrells are free to join up with the Lannisters and oh hey girl they show up just in time to save the day in King's Landing with Garlan wearing Renly's armor (which is, of course, what Melisandre actually saw and misinterpreted). Killing Renly actually did Stannis more harm in the longer run — without the Lannisters showing up with the Tyrells (again, only free because Renly is dead), he probably would've taken the capital.

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The problem that I have with him not knowing about the shadows is, why then did he agree to sleep with Mel? As Stannis relates to use several times he is a very honorable guy and I don't think he would break his vow unless Mel explained to him the exact purpose.

It's not clear, but possibly because he has an ugly wife. "Squirting" is a very common cause of men staining their honor. It's perhaps done to show that Stannis isn't perfect and a bit of a hypocrite. He's a human male, and he's not getting sex from his wife, so he takes what is offered by Mel. It's pretty ironic though, considering he has the reputation as the prude who would shut down brothels.

It's possible Mel is using magic on him, but doubtful. I think it's more like it's part of Mel's arsenal in her ongoing compaign to influence Stannis. (Her battle with Davos for Stannis' soul, in essence) I guess Davos had better start putting out.

Somewhat Crackpot. Could Stannis be trying to make an heir since he doesn't think he'll get another child from his wife?

Hmmm, kind of funny too, he loves ice water, but sleeps with the fire woman. Maybe that's the song of ice and fire.

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Ah, at first glance, yes. But the Renly thing is a perfect example of prophecy biting you in the ass. Melisandre thinks she sees Renly taking the capital and moves to make sure it doesn't happen. Renly's dead, the Tyrells are free to join up with the Lannisters and oh hey girl they show up just in time to save the day in King's Landing with Garlan wearing Renly's armor (which is, of course, what Melisandre actually saw and misinterpreted). Killing Renly actually did Stannis more harm in the longer run — without the Lannisters showing up with the Tyrells (again, only free because Renly is dead), he probably would've taken the capital.

Well, it depends. From Stannis viewpoint, is a King Renly more or less tolerable than a King Joffrey? Because some people have the luxury of believing Joffrey was the rightful king, including Joffrey himself. No one can think that about Renly. Not only was he crowning himself king against the traditions of lawful inheritance, he was stealing Stannis's men and claim. That makes it personal.

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The problem that I have with him not knowing about the shadows is, why then did he agree to sleep with Mel? As Stannis relates to use several times he is a very honorable guy and I don't think he would break his vow unless Mel explained to him the exact purpose.

Stannis. Is. Not. Honorable. Davos says he is. Stannis himself says he is not honorable from the moment he chose family over his lawful king during the rebellion. It is pretty obvious he likely enjoys sleeping with Mel given he is still doing it in ADWD.

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Well, it depends. From Stannis viewpoint, is a King Renly more or less tolerable than a King Joffrey? Because some people have the luxury of believing Joffrey was the rightful king, including Joffrey himself. No one can think that about Renly. Not only was he crowning himself king against the traditions of lawful inheritance, he was stealing Stannis's men and claim. That makes it personal.

That's not really the point though, is it? The point is, Stannis was right on the cusp of taking the capital and wiping out the Lannisters, and then he lost it because reinforcements came. Reinforcements including the Tyrells, who wouldn't have been there if Renly hadn't already been killed.

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Ah, at first glance, yes. But the Renly thing is a perfect example of prophecy biting you in the ass. Melisandre thinks she sees Renly taking the capital and moves to make sure it doesn't happen. Renly's dead, the Tyrells are free to join up with the Lannisters and oh hey girl they show up just in time to save the day in King's Landing with Garlan wearing Renly's armor (which is, of course, what Melisandre actually saw and misinterpreted). Killing Renly actually did Stannis more harm in the longer run — without the Lannisters showing up with the Tyrells (again, only free because Renly is dead), he probably would've taken the capital.

I agree on Mel's warped view of what the flames show. Not sure about how killing Renly hurt in the long run, though. IMO there wouldn't have been a long run if Renly had lived, since he was telling his banners not to desecrate Stannis's body, the implication being that Stannis would (not might) be killed in the upcoming battle. With the disparity in troop strength that looks like the most likely scenario.
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