The Nature of Prophecy in ASOIAF

[Doc Tor Do]

Hi guys,

I was wondering what you wise maesters think of the nature of prophecy in this series. Though GRRM has been careful in saying that prophecy cannot be trusted many times (i.e.: “Not that I would trust it. Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time.” – Archmaester Marwyn), only Melisandre seems to be tripping up in the prophecy department of ASOIAF.

People in this forum seem to trust the every word of Quaithe without questioning whether we know anything about her, or any other of the "seers" for that matter.

So how do you think we should approach prophecies?

I personally just treat them as if I heard another crackpot theory on this forum (like Hodor + Old Nan = Jon. Yes, it exists, horror of horrors, even though it makes 0 sense -_-) and decide to discard it entirely, this makes sure that when it is fulfilled, it comes as a surprise :P !

[Ser Greg of House House]

A good place to start is with Martin's own words:

"Prophecy is one of those tropes of Fantasy that is fun to play with, but it can easily turn into a straightjacket if you're not careful. One of the themes of my fiction, since the very beginning, is that the characters must make their choices, for good or ill. And making choices is hard. There are prophecies in my Seven Kingdoms, but their meanings are often murky and misleading, and they seldom offer the characters much in the way of useful guidance."

"[Laughs] Prophecies are, you know, a double edge sword. You have to handle them very carefully; I mean, they can add depth and interest to a book, but you don’t want to be too literal or too easy... In the Wars of the Roses, that you mentioned, there was one Lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle and he was superstitious at that sort of walls, so he never came anyway near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle of St. Paul de Vence and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! [Laughs] So you know? That’s the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that."

edit: About Quaithe, I like the idea that she has her own agenda and she may be manipulating Dany for her own purposes.

[Doc Tor Do]

A good place to start is with Martin's own words:

"Prophecy is one of those tropes of Fantasy that is fun to play with, but it can easily turn into a straightjacket if you're not careful. One of the themes of my fiction, since the very beginning, is that the characters must make their choices, for good or ill. And making choices is hard. There are prophecies in my Seven Kingdoms, but their meanings are often murky and misleading, and they seldom offer the characters much in the way of useful guidance."

"[Laughs] Prophecies are, you know, a double edge sword. You have to handle them very carefully; I mean, they can add depth and interest to a book, but you don’t want to be too literal or too easy... In the Wars of the Roses, that you mentioned, there was one Lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle and he was superstitious at that sort of walls, so he never came anyway near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle of St. Paul de Vence and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! [Laughs] So you know? That’s the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that."

Ah, I never saw these quotes :D Thank you !!

[Ser Greg of House House]

Ah, I never saw these quotes :D Thank you !!

You might want to check the 'So Spake Martin' section, if you don't know it yet. It's great :) http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/

[Doc Tor Do]

You might want to check the 'So Spake Martin' section, if you don't know it yet. It's great :) http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/

Hehe ^^ I'm so depressed now that I know we won't be seeing Asshai :'(

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think prophecies themselves in the story are generally sound and can/will be fulfilled in a way that makes sense without it feeling like a "gotcha" moment, even if the way isn't immediately obvious. The difficulty comes in interpreting what people see and trying to turn it into actionable intelligence. Too often you have people try to stall a prophecy only to help it come true (Cersei and Melisandre), completely misread the signs they're given (Melisandre) or mistake foretold defeat for foretold victory (Daemon II). I think you also have cases in the story where prophecies are given incorrect and/or misleading solutions (like Azor Ahai) or where prophecies are read too narrowly (like, in my opinion, the idea that Lightbringer is meant to be a literal sword). Some of them may end up being "solved" but subverted — it's a popular theory that Azor Ahai is ultimately a villain and not a hero, for example.

A lot of people have the opinion that the prophecies are all nonsense or that they will never really be solved, especially the Azor Ahai one. I don't believe that, especially given that we've seen enough of them actually come to pass. I tend to hew to the idea that the solution will either be some major subversion of what we expect Azor Ahai to be, or that it will be a less obvious (in-story) candidate.

[thewingedwolf]

I think the first thing about the various prophecies of ASOIAF is that they cannot be bundled into a one-size fits all category but rather need to be classified with a little more refinement and in doing that, we can see that some types have a higher success rate in coming true than others.

The first type is what I would call targeted prophecies which generally tend to relate to specific events and people. In this category, I would include the following:

1. Patchface when, amongst others, prophecisizing the Red Wedding

Fool's blood, king's blood, blood on the maiden's thigh, but chains for the guests and chains for the bridegroom, aye aye aye.

2. Maggy the Frog's prophecy to Cersei and her friends (although this one has not yet been completely fulfilled, ol'Maggy bats 1.000 so far)

3. Qaithes prophecies to Dany (again not all fulfilled yet but looking good so far).

Those proppehcies are interesting because they refer to such specific events and/or people that we, as readers, can verify their accuracy with relative ease. They also invovle events and characters that are part of the current story so connecting the dots is facilitated.

Now this brings me to Azor Ahai (both the legend of the original and the prophecy of the return). To me the legend of Azor Ahai differs from the majority of other prophecies in ASOIAF in that it is more of a parabolic prophecy than foreshadowing. It is a very Old Testament, Messiah cometh type story.

The reason I am relating the AA story to the Old Testament and to biblical parabolas is because I am of the opinion that Azor Ahai is not an actual character and that events related to Nissa Nissa and Lightbringer never actually occured. I believe the purpose of the Azor Ahai story is to communicate that no great victory can be achieved without great sacrifice and that those who wish to a achieve such success must be aware that it comes at great cost.

Furthermore, the concept of Azor Ahai reborn can be closely related to the second coming of Christ and the Son of Man revealing himself from the heavens.

As such, I see th AA prophecy as different from the others we enccouter as it is clearly more religious and parabolic in nature and as such I think is less likely to come through, at least in a literal way.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Now this brings me to Azor Ahai (both the legend of the original and the prophecy of the return). To me the legend of Azor Ahai differs from the majority of other prophecies in ASOIAF in that it is more of a parabolic prophecy than foreshadowing. It is a very Old Testament, Messiah cometh type story.

The reason I am relating the AA story to the Old Testament and to biblical parabolas is because I am of the opinion that Azor Ahai is not an actual character and that events related to Nissa Nissa and Lightbringer never actually occured. I believe the purpose of the Azor Ahai story is to communicate that no great victory can be achieved without great sacrifice and that those who wish to a achieve such success must be aware that it comes at great cost.

Furthermore, the concept of Azor Ahai reborn can be closely related to the second coming of Christ and the Son of Man revealing himself from the heavens.

As such, I see th AA prophecy as different from the others we enccouter as it is clearly more religious and parabolic in nature and as such I think is less likely to come through, at least in a literal way.

But the Old Testament messiah did end up showing up -- Christ -- so I'm not sure how you can say on the one hand that it's an Old Testament-type prophecy and then on the other say that you think it's mostly allegorical and never really occurred. And plenty of Christians think that Christ's second coming is a literal event that will eventually happen.

[thewingedwolf]

But the Old Testament messiah did end up showing up -- Christ -- so I'm not sure how you can say on the one hand that it's an Old Testament-type prophecy and then on the other say that you think it's mostly allegorical and never really occurred. And plenty of Christians think that Christ's second coming is a literal event that will eventually happen.

If you limit your assessment to those who accepts the New Testament, then you be correct the messiah did come. However, if you look at the Jewish faith (which does accept the Old Testament but not the new), the Messiah has yet to come.

And to your second point about the second coming of Christ, I am fully aware that many Christians believe it is going to happen much like many people believe that Azor Ahai, will, literally return. You of all people know full well that because something is believed by some to be a literal event does not necessarily make it so.

The point I was trying to make was that the prophecy of Azor Ahai is very much unique in ASOIAF and differs from many of the other prophecies we have been exposed to.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

If you limit your assessment to those who accepts the New Testament, then you be correct the messiah did come. However, if you look at the Jewish faith (which does accept the Old Testament but not the new), the Messiah has yet to come.

And to your second point about the second coming of Christ, I am fully aware that many Christians believe it is going to happen much like many people believe that Azor Ahai, will, literally return. You of all people know full well that because something is believed by some to be a literal event does not necessarily make it so.

The point I was trying to make was that the prophecy of Azor Ahai is very much unique in ASOIAF and differs from many of the other prophecies we have been exposed to.

I just don't think it's accurate to compare it to the Old Testament and then say it's just allegorical. Even if people who are Jewish don't think Christ was the messiah, that doesn't necessarily imply that there won't be one at some point. It's not as if it's between Christ and a non-literal allegory.

And when I say not to take things too literally, I'm generally referring to the "hallmarks" like the sword, the smoke, salt, stone dragons, etc. I do believe and have always believed that whoever it is, it is a person and the prophecy will be "solved."

[thewingedwolf]

I just don't think it's accurate to compare it to the Old Testament and then say it's just allegorical. Even if people who are Jewish don't think Christ was the messiah, that doesn't necessarily imply that there won't be one at some point. It's not as if it's between Christ and a non-literal allegory.

I suppose that my underlying religious beliefs (or lack thereof) influence my opinion on this. However I can't help but maintain that the nature of the Azor Ahai prophecy is far closer to a messianic prophecy, making it much harder to verify the truthfulness of it, especially when comparing it other prophecies presented in ASOAIF.

[Ser Greg of House House]

If you limit your assessment to those who accepts the New Testament, then you be correct the messiah did come. However, if you look at the Jewish faith (which does accept the Old Testament but not the new), the Messiah has yet to come.

And to your second point about the second coming of Christ, I am fully aware that many Christians believe it is going to happen much like many people believe that Azor Ahai, will, literally return. You of all people know full well that because something is believed by some to be a literal event does not necessarily make it so.

The point I was trying to make was that the prophecy of Azor Ahai is very much unique in ASOIAF and differs from many of the other prophecies we have been exposed to.

Your post is very interesting.

In a way, a prophecy like that is like a 'title' waiting to be claimed. People have declared a lot messiases (spelling?) throughout the times.

See Stannis. Mel believes he's AAR. If he won and ruled happily, he might just be considered that for a long time. Or maybe Beric could be considered that. Or Dany. Or Jon.

It's clear that Martin is sending mixed signals about AAR and there's more than one candidate.

But... The fact is that, differently from the Bible, there is a real world-ending threat gathering. So Westerosi (and possibly Planetosi) people truly need AAR (or some collective force) to save them.

Anyway, it would be great writing if more than one hero was instrumental in defeating the Others and Martin let us forever discussing who the true AAR was :)

[Mladen]

But the Old Testament messiah did end up showing up -- Christ -- so I'm not sure how you can say on the one hand that it's an Old Testament-type prophecy and then on the other say that you think it's mostly allegorical and never really occurred. And plenty of Christians think that Christ's second coming is a literal event that will eventually happen.

This... We know GRRM is, as he said, lapsed Catholic, and we know he studied in Catholic school... When it comes to religious symbolism and possible AAR/PTWP parallels, I go straightforward to Gospel by Jo(h)n as probable parallel, given that of all four this one is about Christ's resurrection. So, perhaps the origin of Jon's name for GRRM is actually in that Gospel who speaks about Jesus as deity, unlike three others... This can be refutable, and by far I am not an expert in this, but I believe there might be some connection.

[thewingedwolf]

But... The fact is that, differently from the Bible, there is a real world-ending threat gathering. So Westerosi (and possibly Planetosi) people truly need AAR (or some collective force) to save them.

That is a very interesting point because if you ask members of certain cults, or even fundamentalists and extremists from more mainstream religions, they would tell you that there is a real world-ending threat going on right now . . .

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

That is a very interesting point because if you ask members of certain cults, or even fundamentalists and extremists from more mainstream religions, they would tell you that there is a real world-ending threat going on right now . . .

But just because there are zealots who insist on interpreting a prophecy in a specific way doesn't mean you should throw the entire prophecy out. The issue is with the interpreters, not the prophecy. Which is what I basically said in my first post.

[Ser Greg of House House]

That is a very interesting point because if you ask members of certain cults, or even fundamentalists and extremists from more mainstream religions, they would tell you that there is a real world-ending threat going on right now . . .

Sure. But people have been saying that for a long time. Maybe we've had quite some saviours of the real world who ended up as unsung heroes. Or the cults have been wrong up until now and we're up for some trouble.

But I guess we can agree we can't know. In ASoIaF, on the other hand, we know the Others are really gathering and, since Martin is telling us their story, it's probably a serious threat. I agree that doesn't apply for the characters, but we the readers have some extra-information. We know a messiah is needed.

[Doc Tor Do]

Sure. But people have been saying that for a long time. Maybe we've had quite some saviours of the real world who ended up as unsung heroes. Or the cults have been wrong up until now and we're up for some trouble.

But I guess we can agree we can't know. In ASoIaF, on the other hand, we know the Others are really gathering and, since Martin is telling us their story, it's probably a serious threat. I agree that doesn't apply for the characters, but we the readers have some extra-information. We know a messiah is needed.

The problem I have with all "end-of-the-world" prophecies is that its foolish to believe them and at the same time foolish to ignore them. The White Walkers are surely dangerous, but they have been "defeated" before, why not again? Is it as truly drastic as many claim it to be?

Prophecies are one of the best pot devices to use to keep people guessing about how they occur, but I think GRRM has done a brilliant job in bringing up the issue on whether we should trust them at all.

[J. Stargaryen]

I just don't think it's accurate to compare it to the Old Testament and then say it's just allegorical. Even if people who are Jewish don't think Christ was the messiah, that doesn't necessarily imply that there won't be one at some point. It's not as if it's between Christ and a non-literal allegory.

And when I say not to take things too literally, I'm generally referring to the "hallmarks" like the sword, the smoke, salt, stone dragons, etc. I do believe and have always believed that whoever it is, it is a person and the prophecy will be "solved."

This is my take on the prophecies in the series as well. I know there are some who think the prophecies might just be a big prank, but I don't think there is any chance of that happening. I could possibly see the AAr/PtwP prophecies going awry somehow, but I don't think it's a wild goose chase, or anything like that.

I could also envision a scenario in which Jon and/or Dany actually fulfilling the prophecies, but someone like Aegon Targfyre ends up receiving the credit. You know, if he survives and becomes king, etc.

[Karmarni]

<snip>

This.^

I also believe they will come true in some shape or form. And I believe the Ghost of High Heart implicitly and think everything she says, including her words to Arya, are important. And, of course, we learn she was right about everything that has already happened.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

Quaithe's words aren't prophecies, they are just like someone telling you "don't trust this person"