"Someone told. Someone always tells"

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Didn't Lord Estermont also fight during Blackwater despite he's 70?

Maybe he's the one who is teaching a few things to Sylva...

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Eldon Estermont is not just some old dude. He is the natural regent of Edric and another Estermont is his guardian. A legitimized Edric can win all the Storm Lords especially with Eldon as his regent. The GC had a pit stop at Lys where Edric was hiding. It is not a remote possibility that Lysono Maar or Varys knew Edric's whereabouts in Lys. The marriage of Sylva and Eldon is especially important since Cersei ignored it completely.

And who pray tell will be doing the legitimizing? Bearing in mind that legitimizing him makes him Robert's heir, so it wouldn't make sense for someone like Aegon to do it, creating a political rival for the Storm Lords to rally around.

[Mithras]

And who pray tell will be doing the legitimizing? Bearing in mind that legitimizing him makes him Robert's heir, so it wouldn't make sense for someone like Aegon to do it, creating a political rival for the Storm Lords to rally around.

fAegon might legitimize him as he is the rightful king in the eyes of his supporters. Edric should of course denounce the claim of Baratheons to the crown and bend knee to fAegon in return of being legitimized and given Storm's End. If fAegon dies, then Edric's legitimization dies with him, so he should be a loyal supporter of fAegon. That is similar to how Nestor's title of the lordship of the Gates of Moon depends on the well-being of LF.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Eldon Estermont is not just some old dude. He is the natural regent of Edric and another Estermont is his guardian. A legitimized Edric can win all the Storm Lords especially with Eldon as his regent. The GC had a pit stop at Lys where Edric was hiding. It is not a remote possibility that Lysono Maar or Varys knew Edric's whereabouts in Lys. The marriage of Sylva and Eldon is especially important since Cersei ignored it completely.

This. I actually think Cersei is always wrong in council issues during affc.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Um, Doran dares more than you dream.

And not knowing what my crackpot is, you dare to try and refute it with that?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

And who pray tell will be doing the legitimizing? Bearing in mind that legitimizing him makes him Robert's heir, so it wouldn't make sense for someone like Aegon to do it, creating a political rival for the Storm Lords to rally around.

No problem. Kick Stannis' butt on the battlefield, claim the throne by Right of Conquest, and make bending the knee requisite before legitimizing anyone.

Actually I'm thinking more Dany for legitimizing Robert's kids. I have this idea that if she wins the throne, people will be less likely to try and take it back, because...dragons.

[Mithras]

No problem. Kick Stannis' butt on the battlefield, claim the throne by Right of Conquest, and make bending the knee requisite before legitimizing anyone.

Actually I'm thinking more Dany for legitimizing Robert's kids. I have this idea that if she wins the throne, people will be less likely to try and take it back, because...dragons.

I think from storywise perspective, Edric has to be legitimized but we will see whether Dany or fAegon will do that. And I wonder how will they do it. Will they legitimize ALL the children of Robert or only Edric?

[Ser Lepus]

I don't think Lord Eldon is working to give Dany the throne; he is the ancestor of Stannis, of Edric Storm and as far as he knows, of Tommen and Myrcella. What could Doran have offered him in exchange of helping remove his own bloodline from the throne?

Lord Eldon must at least know why Spotted Sylva was sent to Greenstone to be his wife. He probably knows all about Arianne's plot and has promised to keep the secret (it would be really dangerous to let him marry Sylva otherwise; she could tattle and Lord Eldon could tell Cersei), but still, Doran is taking a huge risk here...what if he changes his mind and tells Cersei?

I guess Doran has bribed Eldon somehow so he keeps the truth about Myrcella's wounds a secret, but he has kept his plans for Dany a secret from Lord Estermont.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

(I've just updated the OT with the info from here and a link to here).

I just read a bit more of Arianne's chapter to find out if indeed, there is something giving away who could have said something. TBH, I still see nothing.

IV. The Conspirators.

There is several reasons Arianne had for acting.

1. Doran imprisoned the Snakes.
2. Doran was doing nothing to avenge Oberyn.
3. Doran was planning on naming Quentyn his heir and stripped her from her rights.

"I want my cousins freed (1). I want my uncle avenged (2). I want my rights (3)."

"Your rights?"

"Dorne."

"You will have Dorne after I am dead. Are you so anxious to be rid of me?"

"I should turn that question back on you, Father. You have been trying to rid yourself of me for years."

"That is not true."

"No? Shall we ask my brother?"

"Trystane?"

"Quentyn."

"What of him?"

"Where is he?"

"He is with Lord Yronwood's host in the Boneway."

"You do lie well, Father, I will grant you that. You did not so much as blink. Quentyn has gone to Lys."

"Where did you get that notion?"

"A friend told me." She could have secrets too.

"Your friend lied. You have my word, your brother has not gone to Lys. I swear it by sun and spear and Seven."

Doran HAD to imprison the SS for two reasons. One was that he had already figured out that, if they were planning something, it was more likely to crown Myrcella, as Tyene told him. It was the plan with more sense, and the one who would actually cause problems to the Lannisters. To avoid that (and other kind of trouble), he imprisoned them all. And that would cause Arianne to act, as he accurately guessed. He also knew that Arianne shared her cousins' notions of him being passive and weak, so, she would like to put in motion a plan to get even with the Lannisters. Which she also did.

Number 3, otoh, caught him completely by surprise.

There is something here that we know about Arianne. She talks to much. Here is part of her conversation with Arys, after she explains that she has read the infamous letter from Doran to Quentyn, about replacing him.

[..] "Perhaps you misunderstood," he said. "You were only a child. Perhaps the prince was only saying that to encourage your brother to be more diligent."

"You think so? Then tell me, where is Quentyn now?"

"The prince is with Lord Yronwood's host in the Boneway," Ser Arys said cautiously. [..]

Arianne demurred. "So my father wishes us to believe, but I have friends who tell me otherwise. My brother has crossed the narrow sea in secret, posing as a common merchant. Why?"

Arianne has assumed things wrong. But one thing we know is that if she found out about Quentyn's parting is because her friends have told her about.

Prince Doran was still pretending that her brother was with Lord Yronwood, but Garin's mother had seen him at the Planky Town, posing as a merchant. [...] My brother is not as clever as he thinks. A clever man would have left from Oldtown, even if it meant a longer voyage. In Oldtown he might have gone unrecognized. Arianne had friends amongst the orphans of the Planky Town, and some had grown curious as to why a prince and a lord's son might be traveling under false names and seeking passage across the narrow sea. One of them had crept through a window of a night, tickled the lock on Quentyn's little strongbox, and found the scrolls within.

Arianne would have given much and more to know that this secret trip across the narrow sea was Quentyn's own doing, and his alone . . . but parchments he had carried had been sealed with the sun and spear of Dorne. Garin's cousin had not dared break the seal to read them, but . . .

Here is the thing. A LOT of people knew of Arianne knowing about Quentyn leaving. Including the conspirators, probably. Yet, Doran Martell didn't. If someone really talked to Doran, why omitting the part of Arianne knowing Quentyn was leaving? It makes no real sense.

Another thing Arianne assumes is the situation between Doran and his bannermen. For instance, she believes Harmen Uller is mad because Ellaria and her girls have been imprisoned. But we know Ellaria is not actually arrested in the sense Arianne believes. She's there for her own protection and Uller probably knows this, as he is later seen with her in Sunspear when the head of Gregor was brought. He was mad, but not at Doran. There is also a thing in Arianne I (WoW)

Lord Yronwood and Lord Fowler are waiting in the Boneway.

In Feast she says they wouldn't get along, but they are here, both obeying an order from Doran's. That means that his relationship with his men is in good terms. And this also includes the families of the conspirators.

Aside from Darkstar, your fellow plotters were no more than foolish children. Still, this was no harmless game of cyvasse. You and your friends were playing at treason. I might have had their heads off."

"You might have, but you didn't. Dayne, Dalt, Santagar . . . no, you would never dare make enemies of such Houses."

"I dare more than you dream . . . but leave that for the nonce".

Often is said that Doran's punishment for the snitch, whoever s/he was, was bland. Yet, mostly of Arianne's friends were still of noble birth. Here, Arianne is partially right: he can't really do much more without having a few of angry lords, and he NEEDS those lords on his side for his future plans. Also, remember that Doran works in secrecy. If suddenly he decides to execute the child of a lord and this lord isn't pleased, Dorne would see a conflict and the Iron Throne would know "something" is happening. Remember that, up until that moment, the Lannisters have NO IDEA of what has happened to Myrcella. Doran needs to keep things quiet and compromise. But one thing is true, those "kids" conspired to commit treason against him and the Iron Throne. They do need a punishment, nevertheless. And their families knew it

"Ser Andrey has been sent to Norvos to serve your lady mother for three years. Garin will spend his next two years in Tyrosh. From his kin amongst the orphans, I took coin and hostages. Lady Sylva received no punishment from me, but she was of an age to marry. Her father has shipped her to Greenstone to wed Lord Estermont".

They were, according to Hotah, imprisoned in Ghaston Grey. That's a prison. Andrey was sent to Mellario because it's very likely Mellario won't talk and keep him watched. Garin is not noble, so, he doesn't really need special treatment. Sylva's family was probably ashamed of what she did. And marrying her off sounds like a way for them to tell her "grow up" without being suspicious (Cersei does believes that the marriage is caused by a bastard). In fact, all of those punishment do seems like a way for them to "grow up", because they have behaved as foolish children, not only about the plot, but about everything. And the mayor punishment here is that they have been sent away from each other. So, the punishment isn't completely bland, nor really harsh: it's very according with the statuses of the conspirators. None of them has been rewarded.

[Julia Martell]

:bowdown:

You know when a thread dies because it's so perfect you feel like you have nothing to add?

[Chebyshov]

Amazing, amazing followup. I was just thinking about this, because I don't think it's a given someone told Doran the route. If he knew what Arianne was up to, then he'd just be watching her. He has to know about her relationship with the Orphans through Garin, as well as being able to guess what houses she'd likely consider on her side.

The next part should be slow and simple, she thought, up the Greenblood and onto the Vaith, as far as a poleboat can go. That would give her time enough to prepare Myrcella for all that was to come. Beyond Vaith the deep sands waited. They would need help from Sandstone and the Hellholt to make that crossing, but she did not doubt that it would be forthcoming. The Red Viper had been fostered at Sandstone, and Prince Oberyn’s paramour Ellaria Sand was Lord Uller’s natural daughter; four of the Sand Snakes were his granddaughters.

So the only house in there that requires some explanation is Vaith, who's Lady was considered mad not long ago. Besides, Hotah tracking down a poleboat doesn't seem like a huge logistical problem to tackle.

Number 3, otoh, caught him completely by surprise.

Here is the thing. A LOT of people knew of Arianne knowing about Quentyn leaving. Including the conspirators, probably. Yet, Doran Martell didn't. If someone really talked to Doran, why omitting the part of Arianne knowing Quentyn was leaving? It makes no real sense.

Yes, this so much. Doran was caught off-guard with one thing and one thing only: Arianne's suspicion about Quentyn. It's actually sad, because Oberyn's death and the Snakes' imprisonment was not enough of a catalyst for Arianne to risk open war. Had Doran realized what anxiety was at play, this entire thing could have been stopped. Still, he found out which of the noble children were willing to defy him, so he still got something out of this.

In Feast she says they wouldn't get along, but they are here, both obeying an order from Doran's. That means that his relationship with his men is in good terms. And this also includes the families of the conspirators.

Love this, but mostly because I have a strong bias towards Dornish unity. But it's a good point. Doran is careful and knows better than to unduly upset any one house. He does dare more than Arianne dreams, in that he has been able to get these lords so completely on his side. Look at operation distract-the-Swann. Doran's subjects are most leal.

Often is said that Doran's punishment for the snitch, whoever s/he was, was bland. Yet, mostly of Arianne's friends were still of noble birth. Here, Arianne is partially right: he can't really do much more without having a few of angry lords, and he NEEDS those lords on his side for his future plans. Also, remember that Doran works in secrecy. If suddenly he decides to execute the child of a lord and this lord isn't pleased, Dorne would see a conflict and the Iron Throne would know "something" is happening. Remember that, up until that moment, the Lannisters have NO IDEA of what has happened to Myrcella. Doran needs to keep things quiet and compromise. But one thing is true, those "kids" conspired to commit treason against him and the Iron Throne. They do need a punishment, nevertheless. And their families knew it

"Ser Andrey has been sent to Norvos to serve your lady mother for three years. Garin will spend his next two years in Tyrosh. From his kin amongst the orphans, I took coin and hostages. Lady Sylva received no punishment from me, but she was of an age to marry. Her father has shipped her to Greenstone to wed Lord Estermont".

They were, according to Hotah, imprisoned in Ghaston Grey. That's a prison. Andrey was sent to Mellario because it's very likely Mellario won't talk and keep him watched. Garin is not noble, so, he doesn't really need special treatment. Sylva's family was probably ashamed of what she did. And marrying her off sounds like a way for them to tell her "grow up" without being suspicious (Cersei does believes that the marriage is caused by a bastard). In fact, all of those punishment do seems like a way for them to "grow up", because they have behaved as foolish children, not only about the plot, but about everything. And the mayor punishment here is that they have been sent away from each other. So, the punishment isn't completely bland, nor really harsh: it's very according with the statuses of the conspirators. None of them has been rewarded.

Exactly. Their punishments really seem equal (and it's not like Garin was sent to a penal colony...he just wanted to get him away from Arianne), aside from Darkstar, who clearly deserves harsher treatment. We can argue about Sylva's marriage being a good one, especially given the Santagar's position as landed knights, but we also know it was arranged by her father and it has a Lysa Tully feel to it with the age difference; it puts her in her place and is Symon's best course for reprimanding his daughter while still getting something good out of it.

There's a slight chance that Aerys snitched (we can't judge his punishment), but I think that's a difficult argument to make, especially given his thoughts about Myrcella being a better choice for the IT and Arianne's promise of marriage.

Watching this theory grow and develop has been a delight, and I think it's quite convincing. :thumbsup:

[Dornish Vinegar]

Great analysis again JonCon, and I concur with my learned colleagues Julia and Cheb--it had been great watching this develop, and think it's more or less watertight!

One thing I can nitpick is that in the Arianne Winds chapter, It's just in the Yronwood host in the Boneway, with the Fowler host in the Prince's Pass. I guess it's not explicitly stated as such but given the two houses positions as wardens of their respective passes I'd say it's a safe assumption. But regardless, doesn't present any major problems for your argument about Doran's relationship with his lords :)

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Great analysis again JonCon, and I concur with my learned colleagues Julia and Cheb--it had been great watching this develop, and think it's more or less watertight!

One thing I can nitpick is that in the Arianne Winds chapter, It's just in the Yronwood host in the Boneway, with the Fowler host in the Prince's Pass. I guess it's not explicitly stated as such but given the two houses positions as wardens of their respective passes I'd say it's a safe assumption. But regardless, doesn't present any major problems for your argument about Doran's relationship with his lords :)

Mmmm... there is a little chance those two houses cause problems in Winds, but I doubt it. I think they are in good terms to each other due to Doran. Agree with Chebyshov, above: the Houses of Dorne are VERY loyal to Doran despite what the people feel, and they were helpful in helping Swann to get distracted. If any of them was a traitor, they would send a raven away to KL with the truth.

I'd have to re-read that part, but I think it's the people who are mad at Doran's inaction, not the Lords. Dorne has had peace for years and they weren't involved in the Wot5K. Why would they want to fight without a reason?

[Dornish Vinegar]

Mmmm... there is a little chance those two houses cause problems in Winds, but I doubt it. I think they are in good terms to each other due to Doran. Agree with Chebyshov, above: the Houses of Dorne are VERY loyal to Doran despite what the people feel, and they were helpful in helping Swann to get distracted. If any of them was a traitor, they would send a raven away to KL with the truth.

I'd have to re-read that part, but I think it's the people who are mad at Doran's inaction, not the Lords. Dorne has had peace for years and they weren't involved in the Wot5K. Why would they want to fight without a reason?

I agree, wasn't meaning to imply that either of those houses would cause trouble. I think for the most part you're right about the discrepancy between what the common people feel about Doran's rule and what the Lords and Ladies think about Doran's rule, which is an interesting thing in and of itself now that I think about it

[Chebyshov]

Mmmm... there is a little chance those two houses cause problems in Winds, but I doubt it. I think they are in good terms to each other due to Doran. Agree with Chebyshov, above: the Houses of Dorne are VERY loyal to Doran despite what the people feel, and they were helpful in helping Swann to get distracted. If any of them was a traitor, they would send a raven away to KL with the truth.

I'd have to re-read that part, but I think it's the people who are mad at Doran's inaction, not the Lords. Dorne has had peace for years and they weren't involved in the Wot5K. Why would they want to fight without a reason?

Yeah, that's why those theories about Yronwood sending Arch and Cletus to Mereen to screw over the Martells always bug me. I get that family history matters, but there's just no evidence that any current Dornish Lord or Lady has ill-feelings towards Doran. If the Yronwoods are supposed to be the Boltons or Freys of Dorne, then they're doing an incredibly subtle job of it; from Anders/Cletus's affection for Quentyn, to their moving of troops at Doran's behest.

There is only one Dornish noble who is likely to start trouble, and he is of the night (but he didn't tell).

[The Time Traveling Tree]

Doran is in control of the fucking game

[JonCon's Red Beard]

You know when a thread dies because it's so perfect you feel like you have nothing to add?

Watching this theory grow and develop has been a delight, and I think it's quite convincing. :thumbsup:

Great analysis again JonCon, and I concur with my learned colleagues Julia and Cheb--it had been great watching this develop, and think it's more or less watertight!

It grew because the discussion keeps me noticing things. So, let's keep adding /o/

I agree, wasn't meaning to imply that either of those houses would cause trouble. I think for the most part you're right about the discrepancy between what the common people feel about Doran's rule and what the Lords and Ladies think about Doran's rule, which is an interesting thing in and of itself now that I think about it

I can understand why the people is discontent. For instance, they have been completely apart from the war and while that has kept them safe, the Lannisters have offended them again (first Elia now Oberyn) and once more, Doran has done nothing. Of course, the people (and the Snakes and Arianne) know nothing about Doran's real plans. I suppose they probably know something. That's why they are keeping a low profile, so to speak.

For the Lords, it's a matter of money, time and efforts. Also, if we see objectively at the war, Dorne had no business there. When Ned was killed, it was a matter of House Stark and House Tully against House Lannister and Baratheon. Balon declared independence and the Reach allied with House Baratheon. The Vale wanted to join because Ned was loved there. But Dorne had no reasons to join a side.

Yeah, that's why those theories about Yronwood sending Arch and Cletus to Mereen to screw over the Martells always bug me. I get that family history matters, but there's just no evidence that any current Dornish Lord or Lady has ill-feelings towards Doran. If the Yronwoods are supposed to be the Boltons or Freys of Dorne, then they're doing an incredibly subtle job of it; from Anders/Cletus's affection for Quentyn, to their moving of troops at Doran's behest.

There is only one Dornish noble who is likely to start trouble, and he is of the night (but he didn't tell).

I think there is no time for a civil war in Dorne. Whatever happens with them, they will stay united.

Except Darkstar. Oh, Darkstar. I didn't include him because I have no idea what to do about him :lol: He definitely wasn't the snitch, unless Doran was secretely hoping him to kill Myrcella, which I wouldn't completely discard either. The problem here is that Darkstar did such a sloppy job that it doesn't look like Doran's orders. Myrcella being hurt at that time would only cause problems that he's now so actively trying to avoid. If he had indeed wanted her dead or wounded, he would make sure the Lannisters knows more than what they do.

Doran is in control of the fucking game

Indeed.

[Chebyshov]

Quick, logistical question about this. We know that it took Arianne to seduce Arys for half a year, so the plan to couple the Queenmaker plot with Arianne's birthright defense definitely predated Oberyn's death. I was always under the impression that The Snakes (or really Tyene) wanted to enact this plot as a response to their father's death, viewing it as a way of picking up where he left off. But were they (and Arianne) going to go forth with this even had Oberyn lived, and then just assumed his support?

[Julia Martell]

Quick, logistical question about this. We know that it took Arianne to seduce Arys for half a year, so the plan to couple the Queenmaker plot with Arianne's birthright defense definitely predated Oberyn's death. I was always under the impression that The Snakes (or really Tyene) wanted to enact this plot as a response to their father's death, viewing it as a way of picking up where he left off. But were they (and Arianne) going to go forth with this even had Oberyn lived, and then just assumed his support?

I think Oberyn went a little rouge after Viserys's death and had a massive "fuck it" moment.

So maybe.

Or maybe he would have pulled Arienne aside and let her into the Subtle Schemes Club, which probably would have been the best thing anyone could do.

[Chebyshov]

I think Oberyn went a little rouge after Viserys's death and had a massive "fuck it" moment.

So maybe.

Or maybe he would have pulled Arienne aside and let her into the Subtle Schemes Club, which probably would have been the best thing anyone could do.

I'm surprised he didn't try and induct her into that club after he stopped her and Tyene from meeting Willas. Maybe he asked Doran if they could but he said no?