Why I don't buy the standard interpretation of Quaithe's warning

[HoboJed]

Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.

This is the warning Quaithe gives to Daenerys in aDwD, and while there is some debate over who (or what) the perfumed seneschal is, the rest is usually broken down like this:

• The pale mare: The horse that brought the bloody flux to Meereen.

Kraken: Victarion

Dark flame: Moqorro

Lion: Tyrion

Griffin: Jon Connington

The sun's son: Quentyn

The mummer's dragon: fAegon

The first thing obviously wrong with this is that the griffin and the mummer's dragon in this interpretation are not heading to Daenerys any more. The usual counter-argument to this is that Quaithe wasn't predicting the future, but merely reporting on what she has seen with the glass candles. Now that works from a logical point of view, but it is terrible from a literary point of view. When a powerful and mystical person gives someone a cryptic warning, it had better pay off (for good or bad), or it is highly unsatisfying.

The second thing wrong with it is that Daenerys immediately associates Quentyn with "the sun's son" from Quaithe's warning. Surely this should be ringing alarm bells. How often do people correctly interpret these things before they happen? Never.

The third thing wrong is that the implied order of arrival is completely disrupted by Quentyn's early arrival. It's not necessary that the order is meant to be chronological, but it seems strange that Victarion, Moqorro, and Tyrion (the first three after the pale mare) are all primed to make themselves known to Daenerys (and quite possibly in the order of Quaithe's warning).

The last thing wrong is the odd pairings. The warning contains three pairs: kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, and the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. There are several interpretations of these pairings. First is that they are people travelling together. This fails as Quentyn and fAegon never even met each other (as far as we know). The second is that each pairing is of two people who are after the same thing from Daenerys. Well, whilst Victarion and Moqorro are travelling together, I really don't believe they have the same agenda at all. The last is that the pairings mean nothing, and are just there to make the whole thing sound more mystic. I could almost buy that, but the fact that two of the three pairings kind of work makes the whole thing look a lot less clean from a literary point of view.

So where does that leave me? Well, the biggest sinner here is Quentyn. He appears out of chronological order, he breaks the pairing, and Daenerys suspected he was the sun's son. Despite being the only one (other than the pale mare) to reach Daenerys (and cause her trouble), his inclusion just makes the whole thing incredibly unsatisfying to me. So, whilst he is the most obvious candidate, I really find it hard to accept him as the sun's son. Obviously Jon Connington and fAegon are a problem as well, although I will reserve judgement there until later on. There is still time for the story to make it work with them (and there aren't really an abundance of griffins or mummer's dragons to go around).

The pale mare, kraken and dark flame all seem fairly solid to me, so I won't be surprised if they are as they seem. Tyrion as the lion also seems like a decent possibility (although he is sans griffin at the moment, if that matters).

Now, I know I have no hard facts here. I'm just laying down the reasons that cause me to feel that the above interpretation is not correct.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't think she was making a prediction as to the future, merely expressing what she saw at that time. At the time she had the vision, those parties were en route to Dany, even if that didn't end up being the final case. She says they're coming, but that doesn't automatically imply that they arrive.

Quentyn and Aegon are thematically linked: Both of them are/were potential suitors for Dany and both of them think/thought that they have/had something to prove where she's concerned.

[No Song so Sweet]

I think the standard interpretation works well. Who else would the sun's son be?

[HoboJed]

I don't think she was making a prediction as to the future, merely expressing what she saw at that time. At the time she had the vision, those parties were en route to Dany

Did you even read my full post? I stated that exact thing as a common argument that I provided a counter-argument to. I can accept that you don't agree with my counter-argument, but you seem to have not even read it.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Did you even read my full post? I stated that exact thing as a common argument that I provided a counter-argument to. I can accept that you don't agree with my counter-argument, but you seem to have not even read it.

I said how I interpreted the vision. And simply saying it's not "satisfying" from a "literary point of view" doesn't really say much, especially when the author tends to upend that sort of thing, especially where prophecy is concerned.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Did you even read my full post? I stated that exact thing as a common argument that I provided a counter-argument to. I can accept that you don't agree with my counter-argument, but you seem to have not even read it.

You didn't actually provide a counter argument, you just said it didn't satisfy you.

[Poppa Chase]

I assumed originally that it would be potential political engagements in westeros.

Lion is Jaime Lannister

Griffin is Jon Connington

Kraken is Euron Greyjoy

DarkFlame is Stannis Baratheon

Suns son is Trystane Martell

Mummers Dragon is Jon Snow

Perfumed Senechal is Willas Tyrell

But if she is using glass candles then I'd say the other theory is correct.

[Duckfield]

Sometimes I think he made Quaithe just so that we would have something to talk about between books..

[HoboJed]

I said how I interpreted the vision. And simply saying it's not "satisfying" from a "literary point of view" doesn't really say much, especially when the author tends to upend that sort of thing, especially where prophecy is concerned.

You didn't actually provide a counter argument, you just said it didn't satisfy you.

It does say a lot when I'm saying why this interpretation doesn't work "for me".

I disagree that GRRM upends that sort of thing. He is good at taking us down routes we weren't expecting, but everything still works within a literary framework. Characters still have character arcs. Sometimes we are mislead (as with Renley), but never are we given shaggy dog stories or things that don't quite work. GRRM clearly puts a lot of effort into making sure his books work. He greatly stressed over the Meereeneese knot for a long time, specifically to make sure the right characters got there at the right time. I'm not saying that had to do with this warning, because he could easily just have re-written the warning to what he ended up writing. I'm merely using that as an example of how he cares about this kind of thing.

Sure, the Dosh Khaleen were wrong about Rhaego being TSTMTW, but that was clean. They messed up horrifically, and the shock of them being wrong is just as (if not more) satisfying as them being correct. Melisandre is always interpreting her visions incorrectly, but this also works. We, the readers, can easily see her mistakes, and get to revel in her errors. It plays very well against her self-assured attitude.

This Quaithe warning (if the interpretation is correct), however, is not clean. Some of it comes to pass, and some of it doesn't. Some of it is relevant, and some of it isn't. What is key here is that Quaithe provides no interpretation. And that, in my eyes, puts her at the same level as GHH.

Once again, this is why I don't accept the interpretation. I fully accept that I could be wrong.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

This Quaithe warning (if the interpretation is correct), however, is not clean. Some of it comes to pass, and some of it doesn't. Some of it is relevant, and some of it isn't. What is key here is that Quaithe provides no interpretation. And that, in my eyes, puts her at the same level as GHH.

The problem here is that Quaithe doesn't have access to powers that Mel, the Ghost or the crones in VD had. If she indeed has the glass candles, then it's like having a big magical telescope. She can see people coming, but she can't say neither why nor foreseen their changes of route. I suppose the glass candles has a lot of limitations she has to consider as well.

The prophecies of the Ghost were clear, and we don't know how Thoros or the rest of the Brotherhood interpreted them. Mel has also received good visions, and she's reading them wrong. And the Dosh Khaleen have commited the same mistake. But Quaithe isn't making a prophecy, she's telling Dany exactly what she sees: "these people are coming". Then, some of that people decided to to go there. That's not Quaithe's fault.

My problem with her warning is that she's not clear about what she should be wary about. I've read before that she is warning her that others want the dragons, or use her because of them. Well, duh. Dany already found out about that in Clash. No one in Westeros will want to ally with her because she's pretty and nice, but because she has dragons, the ultimate weapon.

I think the standard interpretation works well. Who else would the sun's son be?

Suns son is Trystane Martell

I've mentioned this in another thread. The Martells don't call themselves the "suns" like the Lannisters or the Starks are known as Lions or Wolves. Take the Incas, for instance. Their symbol was the Sun, but they are known as "children of the sun", not the sun themselves. Doran could be very well be the "sun's son", not only Quentyn, as he's the Head of House Martell, whose symbol is indeed the sun. And remember that is Doran the one who wants to use the Dragons, not Quentyn.

[Kyoshi]

I think it might also prove useful to look at the rest of the passage: why must she remember the Undying? What makes the perfumes senechal so special that he doesn't even get a prophesy mate?

That said, I agree that Quentyn somehow disrupts the neat order of things. Here's my interpretation:

Pale mare - Bloody flux

Kraken - Euron

Dark flame - Moqorro/Stannis/Mel

Lion - Tyrion

Griffin - Jon Con

The Sun's son - Quentyn/Doran

Mummer's dragon - Young Griff

Perfumed senechal - honestly, Varys

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I think it might also prove useful to look at the rest of the passage: why must she remember the Undying?

The Undying also mentioned the "mummer's dragon". Unless they said something else we haven't noticed. I don't remember them warning her about Lion, Griffin or Kraken.

[Mithras]

Not many people are aware of the change in Quaithe's prophecy and what does it mean. I am not sure whether that original script was before the release of the Feast or not.

About the sun's son, you might want to remember Doreah's tale about the birth of the dragons (i.e. The Sun - Rhaegar and his "woman wife" the Moon - Lyanna). In that case, a dragon (Jon) qualifies as the sun's son. When it is coupled with the mummer's dragon (a false son of the sun), it makes sense.

In fact, one can regroup those people as kraken (Vicky), lion (Tyrion) and the sun's son (Jon) at one side and these people are most likely to be dragon riders.

All the credit goes to Schmendrick.

[Kyoshi]

The Undying also mentioned the "mummer's dragon". Unless they said something else we haven't noticed. I don't remember them warning her about Lion, Griffin or Kraken.

I was thinking more along the lines of all the visions she saw in the House of the Undying. Sorry to hijack your thread HoboJed, but this may be useful [sorry if it turns out I just wasted an entire post]:

The warlock Pyat Pree persuades Daenerys Targaryen to seek answers in the House of the Undying. Inside, she passes through many rooms containing visions before she reaches the chamber of the Undying.^[2]

1. A beautiful, naked woman being ravished by four little men who resemble the dwarf servitor.

2. A feast of slaughtered corpses holding cups, spoons, and food, with a dead man with a wolf's head sitting on a throne wearing an iron crown, apparently foreshadowing the Red Wedding.

Daenerys' childhood home with the red door in Braavos.

A throne room with dragon skulls on the walls where a king resembling Aerys II Targaryen sits on a barbed throne and appears to give the order to burn the Red Keep during the Sack of King's Landing.

A room where a silver-haired man (presumably Rhaegar Targaryen) names his son Aegon, says the child is "the prince that was promised", then plays a harp.

A "splendor of wizards" who falsely claim to be the Undying of Qarth and offer to teach Daenerys the secret speech of dragonkind.

Upon reaching the chamber of the Undying, Daenerys is spoken to in a barely perceptible whisper. The Undying call her "mother of dragons" and "child of three" and tell her some prophesies, saying "three fires must you light... one for life and one for death and one to love... three mounts must you ride... one to bed and one to dread and one to love... three treasons will you know... once for blood and once for gold and once for love..."

The Undying show Daenerys many more visions before attacking her and being slain by Drogon^[2]:

1. Viserys Targaryen's gruesome death.

2. A tall lord with copper-skin and silver-gold hair beneath a banner of a fiery stallion, with a burning city in the background (this may be a glimpse at what Rhaego's future would have been).

A dying prince (likely Rhaegar Targaryen) mutters a woman's name with his last breath, rubies flying from his chest.

A blue-eyed king who casts no shadow (possibly Stannis Baratheon) raises a red sword in his hand.

A cloth dragon sways on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

A great stone beast takes wing from a smoking tower, breathing shadows.

Daenerys's silver trots through grass to a darkling stream under a sea of stars.

A corpse standing at the prow of a ship with bright eyes and grey smiling lips.

A blue flower growing from a chink in a wall of ice, filling the air with sweetness. (This could indicate Jon Snow's true parentage and potential kinship to Daenerys)

_______________________________________________________________________________

Also, there's a little blonde girl running through your avatar. Last week Griff shaved his beard and dyed his hair blue. I thought I was seeing things.

Not many people are aware of the change in Quaithe's prophecy and what does it mean. I am not sure whether that original script was before the release of the Feast or not.

About the sun's son, you might want to remember Doreah's tale about the birth of the dragons (i.e. The Sun - Rhaegar and his "woman wife" the Moon - Lyanna). In that case, a dragon (Jon) qualifies as the sun's son. When it is coupled with the mummer's dragon (a false son of the sun), it makes sense.

In fact, one can regroup those people as kraken (Vicky), lion (Tyrion) and the sun's son (Jon) at one side and these people are most likely to be dragon riders.

All the credit goes to Schmendrick.

I thought of that. Then I thought: what would Dany have to fear from Jon? That part of Shmendrick's theory is one of the things with which I strongly disagree. The Martells make more sense to me, like JCRB said above. But who knows :dunno:

[OberynBlackfyre]

I think that many readers give Quaithe far too much power, especially when I think that there is a good chance that Quaithe is the sphinx that is Sarella or Alleras.

She is trying to help Dany, and has access to glass candles. The glass candles, from what we know, don't necessarily give you direct access to the person/place/thing that you are "seeing", however you might be able to enter into dreams or give people "visions". Why does Dany get the visions, she has Valyrian blood in her veins, the same blood of the people who created the Glass Candles in the first place....and so does Sarella since she is descended from the royal blood line of Dorne which is the Martells, which have more than their share of dragons blood.

I do think the "sun's son" is kind of funny, because I'm sure Quaithe was trying to warn Daenerys about Quentyn, however it could inadvertently be warning Daenerys about herself (if Quaithe ends up being Sarella, who is posing as a BOY, which would make her the Son of a Sun through Oberyn.)

Also the warnings are pretty vague, yet they also DO fit people that we see in the story. I mean the Lion and the Gryffin can really only be two people within the story, the dark flame is kinda spelled out for us.....however the Kraken could be Victarion, or Euron, or even Aeron for all we know.

And as for the "mummers dragon" I think that is the only one that people MIGHT be falling for the obvious choice of (f)Aegon......

I think the mummers dragon could turn out to be Gerold Dayne.......but as to the WHY of that is for a different thread.

Other than that, I think the messages were clear, in a vague way. And though they are "warnings" I don't think that it means the people that were mentioned will effect Daenerys in a negative way, only that they WILL have an effect on her life.

[hardhome]

OP Lets look for other options+ characters we haven't met yet.

Lion: Gerion, Jamie, Cersei

Kraken: Euron, Theon, Asha

Pale mare: House Pahl ( hey if every other one refers to houses) I've heard at least 1 theory that they poisoned the locusts.

Dark flame: Stannis, Mel, Jon, Aegon (Blackfyre), Drogon, Brown Ben

Griffin: Tyrion (body of a lion and wants to fly/ride a dragon)

Sun's Son: Doran, any of Drogo's other sons (if he had them), a Karstark

Mummers dragon: Tyrion if (A+J=T, worked as a mummer), Brown Ben)

Perfumed Seneshal: Too many to bother

[Horny Joramun]

Why have no one mentioned Marwyn as a candidate for PS? He's heading her way, met Sam in the Seneschals Court and is riding the Cinnamon wind, which is sometimes used as a perfume.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Aegon is the Sun's Sun and the Mummer's Dragon.

[Alaynsa Starne]

What I want to know is how Quaithe knew that Dany shouldn't trust the people who she prophesied about. Assuming that the usual interpretation of who these characters are is correct, then why would Quaithe tell Dany she needed to distrust Quent? His intentions were honestly honorable until he became desperate after Dany turned him down. If Quaithe did see him in real time, wouldn't she have an idea that Quent could actually be a great ally for Dany? Warning Dany about a fake Targ, Vic, and Tyrion who's gone a bit off the deep end makes sense, but Quent just doesn't fit with the warning at that time. Or am I completely off on this?

[aryagonnakill#2]

Oberyn Blackfyre, the problem with Quaithe being Alleras/Sarella is that Quaithe was physically in Qarth, that wasn't a dream. Its Mereen where Quaithe isn't really there.