Garlan v. Euron

[jwkdude]

Hello all,

I notice on the forum it almost seems a forgone conclusion that Euron will smash Garlan's force in the Reach, or that the Reach will only hold out with the help of Aegon (fAegon) which seems plausible but only if he secures the Stormlands quickly. Does anyone else think that Garlan will beat the Ironborn on his own (and break Euron's force), thereby making Victarion the primary Ironborn power player and giving the Tyrell's more staying power as the KL faction in the battle for the IT?

[jwkdude]

I also think this will happen because honestly we have way too many relevant Ironborn characters we're following (Asha, Theon, Vic, Aeron, Euron) and GRRM needs to start trimming downn.

[James Steller]

I highly doubt the Iron Born could outnumber even half the Reach's army. And Garlan is supposed to be one of the best living Warriors in all of Westeros. Euron's also sent Victarion and the Iron Fleet to Meereen, which greatly weakens his own position.

Euron just strikes me as another mad, would-be conqueror who will fall to his own ambitions and foolhardiness. Especially how he seems to be so confidant in his eventual victory when we know that GRRM loves to smash that kind of confidence into dust (See Tywin, Aerys, Renly, Stannis, Mance Rayder, Cersei, etc.).

Victarion is going to be the Greyjoy brother left standing, but I'm sure he'll have problems of his own to deal with.

EDIT= Strike that, Aeron will be the last of the brothers, and he will hopefully play a part in Euron's undoing (or will claim to be involved somehow, if say a storm happens which messes up Euron's fleet or something)

[Damp Hair - The Prophet]

I think GRRM has hinted at a new Tyrel bro POV chapter, and it's hard to tell what will go down with Ironborn VS. The Reach, but the groundwork that GRRM has laid makes it highly unlikely that Euron will go away soon an ignominiously, rather than being a significant player in the endgame, in my estimation.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I think Garlan will indeed push the Ironborn off the Shield Islands (and he'll probably kill/execute the lords Euron left in charge, since his gifts are always poisoned)

But I don't think Euron is going away any time soon. His attack on the Reach was just a diversion. Garlan and Willas will probably lead the new direction of House Tyrell (after Mace's likely death), and that will probably be sitting out the war and securing their homeland.

[Light a wight tonight]

Thank R'hllor that this wasn't about which would win in a duel.

The Ironborn seem to be at their best when fighting at sea or striking lightly-defended positions without warning. I doubt that they'd be good in a regular military campaign, even moreso if they didn't have an advantage in numbers. With a good-sized army either Garlan or Lord Randyll should roll them back into the Sunset Sea.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Euron just strikes me as another mad, would-be conqueror who will fall to his own ambitions and foolhardiness. Especially how he seems to be so confidant in his eventual victory when we know that GRRM loves to smash that kind of confidence into dust (See Tywin, Aerys, Renly, Stannis, Mance Rayder, Cersei, etc.).

GRRM does like to bring down the high fliers, but he also doesn't really pick low hanging fruit.

Euron's "plan" as revealed so far is so ludicrous that smashing him would be too easy - what's there to gain, from a storytelling point of view? His confidence is so over-the-top that it puts him in a league of his own.

It just smells like we haven't seen an essential connecting part of the Ironborn storyline. There is something HUGE about Euron's plan that we don't know yet, and that just might justify his confidence.

When we find out what that is, it will hopefully explain why he sent Victarion to Dany. The explanation that his captains wouldn't go and wouldn't let him go is so weak; that's the reason Euron sends a brother that wants to kill him, with his best ships, and his dragon horn??? Yes Victarion didn't know the horn would kill him, but so much could have gone horribly wrong. Euron risked everything sending that horn.

As for Garlan: the Ironborn can never win on land, especially not against the largest army in Westeros. The Redwyne fleet is also on its way back. The Ironborn will carry their ships across land and attack Oldtown down river instead of from the sea - neutralising Garlan's advantage (no one will be expecting them from there) and also the Redwyne fleet. The Vikings carried their ships across land as well.

[aryagonnakill#2]

It's hard to imagine how the Ironborn can inflict a serious defeat on the Reach forces, but it also seems like the plot demands it. I have seen it suggested that if Garlan were to try to retake the shields and the Ironborn came down on and ambushed them they could win the battle at sea. We have also seen that the Ironborn have been trying to infiltrate Oldtown by capturing friendly ships, and been told that lord Leyton Hightower is locked up in the Hightower practicing magic, and who knows how that could end. If Euron went for Oldtown he would likely wait until Garlan was on the Shield islands and well away.

Lord Pepsi Cups, Victarion did know the horn would kill him, that's why he is having other people do it.

[James Steller]

As for Garlan: the Ironborn can never win on land, especially not against the largest army in Westeros. The Redwyne fleet is also on its way back. The Ironborn will carry their ships across land and attack Oldtown down river instead of from the sea - neutralising Garlan's advantage (no one will be expecting them from there) and also the Redwyne fleet. The Vikings carried their ships across land as well.

Even if Euron's forces do take Oldtown, how long will they hold it? Another Winterfell scenario, except without Winterfell's impressive defences to spare the Ironborn from a complete mop-up on the first day.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Even if Euron's forces do take Oldtown, how long will they hold it? Another Winterfell scenario, except without Winterfell's impressive defences to spare the Ironborn from a complete mop-up on the first day.

Well that's the thing though: Theon holding Winterfell hostage against the Northmen could win him nothing. They're Northmen, and the castle was mostly empty (plus he'd killed the princes...)

Now imagine capturing Oldtown: the richest, largest and second-most populous city in Westeros. Think of all the plunder you could take, etc. Hold it or no, Euron could do much much worse damage than Theon in Wfell ever could.

And Theon's mistake is wanting to hold on to Wfell (as Asha points out to him). If Euron just wants plunder, and to make a name for himself (thus attracting more followers) then sacking Oldtown is all he needs to do.

AND if what he really wants is a certain dark tome hidden in the vaults of the Citadel (the only surviving copy), well then... Sacking Oldtown would be worth it, if this book is as powerful as people think it is.

ETA: and how many times was it said that Wfell was too far from the sea to be suitable in any way for the Ironborn. Well, Oldtown doesn't have that problem...

[The Reckoner]

GRRM has too many Tyrells at this point in the story. I'd be pleased to see them cut down by Euron's reavers and sorcerers. Euron's speech about flying hints that his ambitions are greater than those expected of the ironborn. I could see a scenario where the Tyrells or whomever the Reach's defenders buy into the ironborn stereotypes and getting blown out by Euron's forces.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

GRRM has too many Tyrells at this point in the story. I'd be pleased to see them cut down by Euron's reavers and sorcerers.

"Growing Strong"!

Like godsdamned weeds...

[The Reckoner]

A-reaving they will go...

[James Steller]

I'm suddenly reminded of that moment in "Jumanji" where Robin Williams sees the huge plant monster, grabs a sword from the mantle, and declares "Harvest time!!!!"

[Nyrhex]

There has to be a twist. Logically, Euron is about to do a repeat of Balon's first rebellion. He plans a good opening strike with overwhelming force (Entire Ironborn Navy) against an inferior foe guarding the coast of his target area (20-30 cogs in Lannisport, ~50 longships in the Shield Islands), but once he had spent his surprise card he runs into failure (Seagard/Oldtown) and destruction (Fair Isle/Redwyne Fleet returning and outnumbers the Ironborn in war ships, Garlan rasing a host larger than the Ironbron numbers...).

The only way to make this interesting is to have Euron play a hidden card. He seems pretty sure of himself, but his plan so far isn't working.

If this was a real life war, I would bet on Garlan, hands down. But for a book, I feel like a twist is coming.

[LordQorgyle]

I think Euron's plan is not the Reach... When the Redwyne fleet arrives he will probably be far away

[Mithras]

Euron exploits the weakness of his enemies. That is why he has to push Garlan into action before the Redwyne Fleet arrives and while Garlan is crossing the Mander to defend the place Euron supposedly has attacked, Euron, by using magic, can descend on him and defeat his army. I think this is what we will see. The Mander is open and Euron will feign attacks to Highgarden or a suitable and important city in the Reach which Garlan has to come to aid regardless of the risk in crossing the Mander.

[Bryanfury]

Garlan and Willas are going to lose against the Ironborn, and Aegon is going to swoop in and win the allegiance of the Hightowers and Tarly by defeating the Ironborn at Oldtown.

[James Arryn]

Garlan and the Reach would seem to be heavily favoured and emotionally preferred, so of course they're going down.

Unless the twist is lack of twist. Can you break a trope you helped invent?

[OmnomnomPomelo]

I think that if Garlan crashes Euron then Euron will fall a lot in our eyes. I can imagine for example that the ironborn sack Highgarden and they will Willas thus Garlan becomes the heir of Mace, but the Redwynes will try to lock them in the Mander so they have to choose retreat while they can or stay and make Highgarden their base. And at this point I vote for retreat coz the ironborn=ships and sea, and then Aegon arrives with the Golden Company and take over Highgarden. And then comes Olenna who makes Garlan to swore his sword to Aegon and name himself the Lord of Highgarden, thus they betray Mace and the crown, which will make more conflicts in King's Landing and Aegon gets a strong ally. And thus there will be Tyrells on both sides.