I'm not convinced Aegon is fake, and I don't think you should be either.

[SerWest]

I've read all the "evidence" and still don't think it is enough. R+L=J has a ridiculous amount of evidence, so much so that it really couldn't be anything else... But it seems that people just want Aegon to be fake. Which is understandable. He did in a way just sort of come out of nowhere, and we have all felt allegiance to Dany over 5 books and have gotten to know her as the last Targ. But let's look at the main "evidence":

-Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon quote.

-The rusty dragon sign

-The mummer's dragon.

-Golden Company supporting him

-Male line of Blackfyre dying out, but maybe not the female

If I left any out please feel free to post it. But none of this seems to be any sort of real proof. It could all be interpreted in another way. Plus there's the fact that George never confirmed Aegon being dead during the Sack, only his sister. Also, Aegon did pop up during the HOTU chapter. One of the most important chapters in terms of prophecy and the future of the series.

I donno, it could be true, i'm definitely not ruling it out. But I think there is so little actual "proof" for people to start saying that they're 100% sure he's fake, let alone a Blackfyre.

Thoughts?

[Mladen]

Blackfyres have been mentioned so many times. You have to wonder why. And with evidence piling on Aegon`s legitimacy, it`s quite logical to conclude that YG is actually Blackfyre. Never forget that Jon Connington met with him when he was 4, 5. So, unless Septa Lemore is Ashara (and even then, she could have also been tricked) he`s fake in my book. The problem is that I don`t care. Between him and crazy mother of dragons, I choose him...

[Toccs]

There's also the out of universe timing of GRRM releasing the Dunk and Egg stories. The novellas do two things, set up Bloodraven and set up the Blackfyres and shortly after we get these stories Bloodraven shows up in the main books. Thematically it seems likely that there will be something concerning the Blackfyres popping up in the books and with all the textual evidence it looks like it is Aegon.

[King Aerys the Just]

You forgot that Varys was implicitly involved in the downfall of House Targaryen from the start, by fueling Aerys paranoia and madness with his "whisperings" etc, yet now we are to believe that he has been secretly working for a Targ restoration ever since the Sack? Doesn't make sense. If Aegon is a secret Blackfyre on the other hand...

[SerWest]

You forgot that Varys was implicitly involved in the downfall of House Targaryen in the first place, by fueling Aerys paranoia and madness with his "whisperings" etc, yet now we are to believe that he has been secretly working for a Targ restoration ever since the Sack? Doesn't make sense. If Aegon is a Blackfyre on the other hand...

But he tried to get Aerys to not let Tywin in during the Sack. Seems like he wanted to protect them to me.

[Mladen]

You forgot that Varys was implicitly involved in the downfall of House Targaryen from the start, by fueling Aerys paranoia and madness with his "whisperings" etc...

I was always wondering whether Varys indeed worsen Aerys`s paranoia or was it just a coincedence mixed with people`s rumors...

[SerWest]

Also what about the almost confirmed second Dance of Dragons? The last dance didn't involve any Blackfyres.

[Toccs]

Also what about the almost confirmed second Dance of Dragons? The last dance didn't involve any Blackfyres.

Doesn't mean that this one won't.

[StarkDragon]

You forgot that Varys was implicitly involved in the downfall of House Targaryen from the start, by fueling Aerys paranoia and madness with his "whisperings" etc, yet now we are to believe that he has been secretly working for a Targ restoration ever since the Sack? Doesn't make sense. If Aegon is a secret Blackfyre on the other hand...

Power Allegiance is where men believe it is. Where one POV might see Varys allying for Aegon, another may see it against. The characters, like us, have tricksy perceptions.

That being said, I do agree that a Blackfyre should show soon or late.

[Groat]

You forgot that Varys was implicitly involved in the downfall of House Targaryen from the start, by fueling Aerys paranoia and madness with his "whisperings" etc, yet now we are to believe that he has been secretly working for a Targ restoration ever since the Sack? Doesn't make sense. If Aegon is a secret Blackfyre on the other hand...

I could be wrong, but I thought the only evidence of Varys being implicitly involved in fueling Aerys madness was from memories of Barristan which may or may not have been inaccurate. Is there a reliable source claiming Varys was whispering into Aerys's ear to increase his madness?

[The guy from the Vale]

I've read all the "evidence" and still don't think it is enough. R+L=J has a ridiculous amount of evidence, so much so that it really couldn't be anything else... But it seems that people just want Aegon to be fake. Which is understandable. He did in a way just sort of come out of nowhere, and we have all felt allegiance to Dany over 5 books and have gotten to know her as the last Targ. But let's look at the main "evidence":

-Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon quote.

-The rusty dragon sign

-The mummer's dragon.

-Golden Company supporting him

-Male line of Blackfyre dying out, but maybe not the female

If I left any out please feel free to post it. But none of this seems to be any sort of real proof. It could all be interpreted in another way. Plus there's the fact that George never confirmed Aegon being dead during the Sack, only his sister. Also, Aegon did pop up during the HOTU chapter. One of the most important chapters in terms of prophecy and the future of the series.

I donno, it could be true, i'm definitely not ruling it out. But I think there is so little actual "proof" for people to start saying that they're 100% sure he's fake, let alone a Blackfyre.

Thoughts?

There's quite a bit of evidence that fAegon is Illyrio's son that is independent of the Blackfyre foreshadowing at first. This goes so far that fAegon and a statue of young Illyrio (who couldn't have afforded such a statue in his youth!) are described in almost identical terms. Illyrio also is so fond of fAegon that he wants to see him himself against all wisdom, and still keeps the clothes fAegon wore when he was at his house.

You already listed the Blackfyre evidence. What is really interesting though is that Lys, the city where both Varys and Illyrio's second wife Serra were born (both into slavery, both became entertainment slaves, and they should be about the same age) has historical links to the Blackfyres and the Ninepenny War. In addition, Illyrio and Varys' plans make no sense whatsoever unless they really only ever supported fAegon - and what would be in it for them? They are already extremely rich and powerful... unless they have some other, dynastical, motive.

[King Aerys the Just]

But he tried to get Aerys to not let Tywin in during the Sack. Seems like he wanted to protect them to me.

By which point the Targaryens were done for anyway, no small part thanks to him, if he was the one who made Aerys start burning things.

As for his attempts to stop Tywin from getting into KL are plenty of other possible reasons than any love for the red dragons on his part. The obvious one is that he may have feared losing his head/getting his spy organization destroyed in the chaos of a Lannister sack. Another is that he may have feared that Tywin would take the throne for himself, rather than Robert or Hoster or whoever else would otherwise take the city, because Tywin could prove more problematic for a future Blackfyre coup than these other claimants would. Since Tywin was hard as nails, as well as likely suspicious of Varys due to his past experience at court. Hence why Varys probably arranged his death by Tyrion as soon after he became Hand again as possible.

I was always wondering whether Varys indeed worsen Aerys`s paranoia or was it just a coincedence mixed with people`s rumors...

No way to say for sure yet I suppose, since then it would be too obvious Aegon just couldn't be real.

Power Allegiance is where men believe it is. Where one POV might see Varys allying for Aegon, another may see it against. The characters, like us, have tricksy perceptions.

That being said, I do agree that a Blackfyre should show soon or late.

But there is such heavy evidence for this beyond just his conversation with Kevan at the end of ADWD. That Varys and Illyrio are close partners in crime is pretty much guaranteed, and the latter is the greatest reason for why Aegon is even a viable claimant for the throne in the first place. He has arranged everything for him, for the boy's entire life.

[PrimeRhaegar]

i'm not convinced either but on this board some people take theories and speculation as fact for some reason. Look at how many people already calling jon a targ yet he isn't even confirmed or anything he isn't even a stark (legally) but hey such is fandom i guess. For the record i do think he is aegon elia's son

[lady m]

Also what about the almost confirmed second Dance of Dragons? The last dance didn't involve any Blackfyres.

To not quite quote Bloodraven, a dragon is still a dragon even if the color is wrong. Plus, the Blackfyres didn't exist in the first Dance of the Dragons.

I would say the chain of evidence is very suspect with regard to Aegon. He's supposedly taken from KL while he's an infant, but he's not delivered to Jon Connington till five years later. It is noted that half the whores in Lys have Valyrian looks, so while Aegon's coloring might be uncommon in Westeros, it's not in Essos. Of Varys had wanted things to not be questioned he should have had someone who could vouch for Aegon in his life all along. Plus, the fact that the person he found to vouch for Aegon is supposed to be dead also doesn't speak well of things.

[Castellan]

Just that in history, all these long lost royalty or nobility are fakes or pretenders. Its such an opportunity for fakers or deluded people if there is any doubt about the death. Anastasia, the Tichborne claimant etc

The onus is on Aegon to prove he isn't, really, there would be no reason for people in Westeros to accept him as real.

Also, I find it suspicious that his existence was concealed from William Darry and his supposed aunt and uncle. Because they wouldn't believe it?

[The Mother of The Others]

Okay. Not convinced of fakeness. That's about right. Really, you don't hear people saying other characters are fake. Varys is a bigtime faker. Aegon is way more real than Varys. Varys is hiding his realness so deep down he probably doesn't know where to find it anymore. Aegon wears his real persona on his sleeve. You know who you're dealing with with him. You're dealing with Aegon. He believes he's really Aegon, so he acts like it. So there is absolutely no difference between him and a "real" Aegon. Aegon (behaviorally) = the real deal. Aegon = a bold and potentially very good choice for king. The only question is will people value these kingly traits in their time of need, or will they still insist on someone with a real pedigree? I say it's time to chuck those bloodline rules out the moon gate and go with someone who gives the realm its best chance at survival. Aegon the False seems like the best candidate to do that........ if only the people would get on board with it. If not, more civil war looms. The threat of that may be what closes people's minds to him should his pedigree come into question. Otherwise, let's give him a try. I'm onboard the Aegon train.

[Lord Ben]

A couple points to counter some I usually see mentioned.

They weren't really mentioned all that much in the main book compared to the existence of Aegon.

The point of the Blackfyres might just be to explain the existence of 10,000 elite Westerosi soldiers with no allegiances to one of the seven kingdoms.

The Black Dragon sign that came back Red could be Faegon masquerading as Aegon but it could just as easily refer to the Golden Company that left with the Black's and return with Aegon.

If all this is done because they want one of their "own" on the throne what's the payoff at the end? That they are content with a Blackfyre who doesn't know or believe he's a Blackfyre and just rest easier knowing some relative from a long time ago has some of the same blood with some king who doesn't even know it? Not buying it...

[WinterKing]

There is no "overwhelming evidence", but the bigger picture seems to indicate that Aegon is fake.R+L=J don't have "overwhelming evidence" too, but all indicates that is true.

[TheCrannogDweller]

I suppose this has been mentioned before, but if all that is true and Aegon is both Ilyrio's son and a Blackfyre, then why would Ilyrio help Dany and Viserys? He set them up with a dothraki army. Granted, he probably knew that there wasn't a big chance that Drogo would actually cross the Narrow Sea, but why take even the slightest chance of arming your enemy?

On the other hand, if Aegon is a Targ, this move makes all the sense in the world, because it focuses the attention on Dany and Viserys, while the person with the best claim prepares in secret.

[Lord Ben]

I suppose this has been mentioned before, but if all that is true and Aegon is both Ilyrio's son and a Blackfyre, then why would Ilyrio help Dany and Viserys? He set them up with a dothraki army. Granted, he probably knew that there wasn't a big chance that Drogo would actually cross the Narrow Sea, but why take even the slightest chance of arming your enemy?

On the other hand, if Aegon is a Targ, this move makes all the sense in the world, because it focuses the attention on Dany and Viserys, while the person with the best claim prepares in secret.

Exactly. There might be some evidence he's fake but the actions of people around him point to it being real (or at least a total fake rather than a Blackfyre fake).