I'm not convinced Aegon is fake, and I don't think you should be either.

[bent branch]

One key piece of information here, I believe, is Tyrion. When Tyrion announces his theory about Aegon, why exactly does he assume the boy is Aegon? What bit information did he win from the game that convinced him of this? It was a very surprising scene that comes out of nowhere...if it's George's half-assed introduction to a fake Aegon plot that would be weak and somewhat pointless writing

Recently I found this bit of text on re-read (ADWD-Tyrion POV VII) (italics are the author's):

Haldon Halfmaester had spoken of using the red priest to Young Griff's advantage, Tyrion recalled. Now that he had seen and heard the man himself, that struck him as a very bad idea. He hoped that Griff had better sense. Some allies are more dangerous than enemies. But Lord Connington will need to puzzle that one out for himself. I am like to be a head on a spike.

The priest was pointing at the Black Wall behind the temple, gesturing up at its parapets, where a handful of armored guardsmen stood gazing down. "What is he saying?" Tyrion asked the knight.

"That Daenerys stands in peril. The dark eye has fallen upon her, and the minions of night are plotting her destruction, praying to their false gods in temples of deceit...conspiring at betrayal with godless outlanders..."

The hairs on the back of Tyrion's neck began to prickle. Prince Aegon will find no friend here. The red priest spoke of ancient prophecy, a prophecy that foretold the coming of a hero to deliver the world from darkness. One hero. Not two. Daenerys has dragons, Aegon does not. The dwarf did not need to be a prophet himself to foresee how Benerro and his followers might react to a second Targaryen. Griff will see that too, surely, he thought, surprised to find how much he cared.

I believe this is what Tyrion and Haldon spoke about after Haldon lost the game. What caught my attention with this passage is the very first sentence. The red priests are not a charitable organization that helps little lost princes regain their throne, they are a fanatical religious organization that are looking for their prophesied savior. If Haldon had spoken of using the red priest to Aegon's advantage, Haldon and Tyrion must have been discussing the PtwP prophecy. I have become convinced that there are two versions of this prophecy that I call the Westerosi and Essosi versions. In the Westerosi version there is the three heads of the dragon, which is interpreted to mean three people. THotD is absent from the Essosi version so they are looking for only one person. I believe Tyrion's thoughts reflect that the conversation between Haldon and Tyrion was about the Westerosi version. I have been thinking about what this means to the story and the implications are pretty huge. I have always been a fence sitter about Aegon as I see most of the evidence for Aegon being a Blackfyre as very ambiguous. However, since reading and thinking about this passage, I find I am falling off the fence on the Aegon is Rhaegar's son side.

[Lord Ben]

Doesn't matter. He would still be on the books from the begining even if not as a POV. And if he's supposed to be king at the end, then he's the protagonist and introducing him so late would be just poor writing. And GRRM is not known for poor writing.

He was introduced quite early as being reportedly dead with an unrecognizable face. It's no surprise to me if he's still alive. I assumed it from the start years before ADWD that he'd be back.

[Lummel]

Recently I found this bit of text on re-read (ADWD-Tyrion POV VII) (italics are the author's)...since reading and thinking about this passage, I find I am falling off the fence on the Aegon is Rhaegar's son side.

Haldane would believe that Aegon is Rhaegar's son. But why should we as readers believe what Haldane and Connington believe in?

If Tyrion and Haldane were discussing the Targaryen prophecy that Rhaegar was such a fan of that would be interesting - because we don't see any awareness of it otherwise so far from non-Targaryens in Westeros, but would only be consistent with Connington's and Haldane's belief.

[Israel]

But I'm saying why Aegon specifically? It makes sense, what with all the protection, training and studying, that Young Griff was more than he first appeared. But it's a bit of a reach for Tyrion to immediately jump to Aegon (depending what info he won from Haldon), especially if Aegon later turns out to be false. It seems like a slightly forced but necessary scene to finally unveil Aegon on the scene, but if he turns out to be a fake, Tyrion's huge assumption reads more like poor writing.

what he said

[naik2902]

i want aegon to be real coz i dont want jon to be one of dragon rider. he looks good and perfect with his direwolf.

[Toccs]

I only find it to be poor writing if Aegon turns out to be a fake. Tyrion puts together a bunch of vague pieces of information (all of it off screen) and then gets a key bit of information that we never learn despite Tyrion having a ton more POV chapters. I can buy this if George was running out of time to introduce Aegon and rushed it a little bit, but if it's turns out being a false Targ subplot, that's a pretty weak way of introducing it...having one of the most intelligent characters in the series suddenly call Griff and Young Griff out, and having this reveal supported by everyone else.

But that logic it is bad writing to have Catelyn and Ned believe that Jon Arryn was murdred by the Lannisters when it turned out they were completely wrong the whole time.

That's what a mystery is all about. You lead people down the wrong path all the while planting clues that point to the right one. Without the misdirection there is no mystery.

[The guy from the Vale]

what he said

Again, if Tyrio simply extorted the information out of Haldon, there's no reason to assume he jumped to any conclusions whatsoever. He simply used the secret Haldon told him after losing his cyvasse game.

i want aegon to be real coz i dont want jon to be one of dragon rider. he looks good and perfect with his direwolf.

There's no reason to assume Jon will ever be a dragon rider, actually. The prophecy speaks of one dragon with three heads, not of three dragons with one rider each. And it's even less clear that the Dragn riders have to be Targaryens to begin with.

He was introduced quite early as being reportedly dead with an unrecognizable face. It's no surprise to me if he's still alive. I assumed it from the start years before ADWD that he'd be back.

And you don't see that this also opens the door for a fraud if it was really Aegon who died?

[Jon Mark Selmy]

He was introduced quite early as being reportedly dead with an unrecognizable face. It's no surprise to me if he's still alive. I assumed it from the start years before ADWD that he'd be back.

But he wasn't a character at that point. So, from a "meta" standpoint, it would be very silly if he ended up being that important. It would be an ass-pull and GRRM just isn't doing it. I guess what I'm getting at is that even if he WERE real (which is unlikely given the amount of forshadowing) he would have to remain a secondary character for the series to make sense from a narrative standpoint.

[TheCrannogDweller]

But that logic it is bad writing to have Catelyn and Ned believe that Jon Arryn was murdred by the Lannisters when it turned out they were completely wrong the whole time.

It's funny you should mention that, I think that the manner of Jon's death was the biggest hint at his murderer and one of the most obvious reveals in the story. My first association with "The Tears of Lys" was Lysa, not the free city (which, btw was pretty unknown to the readers at that point, IIRC). Of course, I didn't get it until Feast, but the clue was there.

[Buried Treasure]

Tyrion didn't necessarily conclude that Young Griff was Rhaegar's son Aegon, rather he could have concluded that YG was the boy that Illyrio and Varys intended to present to the realm as Aegon. He could have still been undecided about whether this Aegon the Aegon - hence Tyrion later musing that 'perhaps he really is a Targaryen' when Aegon had a temper tantrum, and having a conversation about what Aegon had been told about his escape from the Red Keep.

Tyrion concluding that YG was the boy that Illyrio and Varys intended to present to the realm as Aegon really wasn't implausible. Ilyrio took care of the boy when he was young then procured a prominent Targaryen loyalist as his foster father, . Why else would Illyio be sponsoring a boy with a hidden identity and sending them off to Queen Daenaerys?

[Mrs.Grumpy]

I think the question is; Does it matter ?

He could be fake but he's way better than Dany, imo.

edit

I believe he's fake, btw.

[rondo has three heads]

Recently I found this bit of text on re-read (ADWD-Tyrion POV VII) (italics are the author's):

Good passage...I actually have only read the series once and haven't decided how I should go about a re-read. Another interesting aspect of the passage is Tyrion thinking of the boy as Prince Aegon as well as Young Griff, the same he does with Griff/Connington. Tyrion being "surprised about how much he cared" is also important. Why would he care about a fake prince? Why would he think of the boy as Prince Aegon opposed to Aegon or Young Griff?

But that logic it is bad writing to have Catelyn and Ned believe that Jon Arryn was murdred by the Lannisters when it turned out they were completely wrong the whole time.

That's what a mystery is all about. You lead people down the wrong path all the while planting clues that point to the right one. Without the misdirection there is no mystery.

I'm not so sure they are comparable. Jon's true manner of death is not revealed for thousands of pages and the Starks suck at the game and are generally wrong with their assumptions. In terms of story, Jon's death is pretty much the catalyst for ASOIAF.

The Aegon reveal, on the other hand, comes midway through Book 5, with Tyrion simply announcing he has solved the puzzle. If we later learn that Tyrion incorrectly solved the puzzle...OK? Is that the same "Ah ha!" moment as learning of Arryn's true death? Not even close.

I am 50-50 on this issue, to be clear, I just think a fake Aegon subplot is somewhat pointless at this stage of the game, especially considering how abrupt the introduction was...opposed to your example, which developed over several long novels.

Again, if Tyrio simply extorted the information out of Haldon, there's no reason to assume he jumped to any conclusions whatsoever. He simply used the secret Haldon told him after losing his cyvasse game.

But what secret? I find it very suspicious that Tyrion does not reflect on this bit of info over the rest of the book. Kind of like Ned/ToJ situation except Tyrion hasn't had years and years to bury it.

Tyrion didn't necessarily conclude that Young Griff was Rhaegar's son Aegon, rather he could have concluded that YG was the boy that Illyrio and Varys intended to present to the realm as Aegon.

I think this is very possible, but why would Tyrion later think of the boy as Prince Aegon? And why would Tyrion care so much about Illyrio and his fake prince?

[lcd52]

Tyrion didn't necessarily conclude that Young Griff was Rhaegar's son Aegon, rather he could have concluded that YG was the boy that Illyrio and Varys intended to present to the realm as Aegon. He could have still been undecided about whether this Aegon the Aegon - hence Tyrion later musing that 'perhaps he really is a Targaryen' when Aegon had a temper tantrum, and having a conversation about what Aegon had been told about his escape from the Red Keep.

Tyrion concluding that YG was the boy that Illyrio and Varys intended to present to the realm as Aegon really wasn't implausible. Ilyrio took care of the boy when he was young then procured a prominent Targaryen loyalist as his foster father, . Why else would Illyio be sponsoring a boy with a hidden identity and sending them off to Queen Daenaerys?

How about, "the things we do for love"?

One theory is that Illyrio's wife Serra was a direct descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. Her life paralleled Dany's to some extent - being orphaned, abandoned. Only Dany was reduced to a beggar's standing while Serra, apparently alone, was forced to sell herself in a pillow house in Lys. Illyro married her and her fire burned to claim the throne that should have gone to her ancestor, "the Better Man." Instead it went to a descendant of the bastard brother of The Conqueror.

She died of the Grey Death; but before she died she begged her husband to achieve her dream: take her son back to "their land" and put him on the throne that was meant for Daemon. "He is the Blood of the Dragon, of the Blood and Seed of Aegon the Conqueror. Promise me, Illyrio."

[lcd52]

I think this is very possible, but why would Tyrion later think of the boy as Prince Aegon? And why would Tyrion care so much about Illyrio and his fake prince?

Because Tyrion is known to have a kindness for bastards, cripples, and broken things. Maybe he's added a few things to that list since the Blackwater.

[bent branch]

Haldane would believe that Aegon is Rhaegar's son. But why should we as readers believe what Haldane and Connington believe in?

If Tyrion and Haldane were discussing the Targaryen prophecy that Rhaegar was such a fan of that would be interesting - because we don't see any awareness of it otherwise so far from non-Targaryens in Westeros, but would only be consistent with Connington's and Haldane's belief.

I have been torn about what Varys' motives are. There are numerous things in the books that make me think that Varys is working off the PtwP prophecy. Nothing that would prove it to definitively or else I wouldn't still be questioning it. However, this passage has made me start leaning more heavily towards that conclusion. You are right that the reader shouldn't simply accept something as true just because the characters do. In fact, I doubt that Aegon is the PtwP. However, understanding what characters believe and why they believe it helps the reader understand that character's motivations.

Until I found this passage, the only three people who mentioned the THotD were Aemon, Rhaegar and Illyrio. Illyrio's reference to the THotD was so ambiguous that, while I kept it at the back of my head, I couldn't decide if he was simply referring to the Targaryen (and Blackfyre) sigil or if he was making a veiled reference to the prophecy. Reading this passage made clear to me that at least Haldon (and probably Connington) was aware of the PtwP prophecy. From (what I interpreted as) Tyrion's surprise that Benerro was talking about only one hero, he was told about the Westerosi version of the prophecy. This now makes the people who are in some way connected to the THotD prophecy Aemon, Rhaegar, Illyrio, Haldon and Tyrion. Illyrio, as an Essosi, really stands out. However, it was Varys' and Illyrio who recruited the people who surround Aegon and Varys was definitely in a position to learn about the THotD prophecy. I do not find it a stretch to believe that the guys who are bankrolling this enterprise are aware of the prophecy and working towards its fulfillment. Could this interpretation be wrong? Yes. However, if it is true that Varys and Illyrio are working towards fulfilling the PtwP prophecy, then Aegon must be Rhaegar's son because a random boy won't fulfill the prophecy. I see this passage as a further indication (not proof) that Varys is indeed about the PtwP prophecy.

Good passage...I actually have only read the series once and haven't decided how I should go about a re-read. Another interesting aspect of the passage is Tyrion thinking of the boy as Prince Aegon as well as Young Griff, the same he does with Griff/Connington. Tyrion being "surprised about how much he cared" is also important. Why would he care about a fake prince? Why would he think of the boy as Prince Aegon opposed to Aegon or Young Griff?

I'm not so sure they are comparable. Jon's true manner of death is not revealed for thousands of pages and the Starks suck at the game and are generally wrong with their assumptions. In terms of story, Jon's death is pretty much the catalyst for ASOIAF.

The Aegon reveal, on the other hand, comes midway through Book 5, with Tyrion simply announcing he has solved the puzzle. If we later learn that Tyrion incorrectly solved the puzzle...OK? Is that the same "Ah ha!" moment as learning of Arryn's true death? Not even close.

I am 50-50 on this issue, to be clear, I just think a fake Aegon subplot is somewhat pointless at this stage of the game, especially considering how abrupt the introduction was...opposed to your example, which developed over several long novels.

But what secret? I find it very suspicious that Tyrion does not reflect on this bit of info over the rest of the book. Kind of like Ned/ToJ situation except Tyrion hasn't had years and years to bury it.

I think this is very possible, but why would Tyrion later think of the boy as Prince Aegon? And why would Tyrion care so much about Illyrio and his fake prince?

I agree that the passage strongly suggests that Tyrion is convinced that Aegon is indeed Rhaegar's son. In fact, I am so convinced that Tyrion completely buys into Aegon being Rhaegar's son that it would take very strong proof to convince me otherwise. However, as I have argued in the past, Tyrion was only ten when Rhaegar died so he has no special knowledge to draw upon to make his determination any better than anyone else's who has not met Rhaegar. Why Tyrion's belief about the situation is important is because he is the one who will first tell Dany about Aegon and that will bring an influence to Dany's attitude toward Aegon. I think it is clear that Tyrion will be an advocate for Aegon and not against.

[Buried Treasure]

Good passage...I actually have only read the series once and haven't decided how I should go about a re-read. Another interesting aspect of the passage is Tyrion thinking of the boy as Prince Aegon as well as Young Griff, the same he does with Griff/Connington. Tyrion being "surprised about how much he cared" is also important. Why would he care about a fake prince? Why would he think of the boy as Prince Aegon opposed to Aegon or Young Griff?

....

I think this is very possible, but why would Tyrion later think of the boy as Prince Aegon? And why would Tyrion care so much about Illyrio and his fake prince?

Why would Tyrion think of the boy as Prince Aegon? For the same reason Varys told Kevan he is Prince Aegon, that is who he is, regardless of whether he was actually Rhaegar's son or was ever in King Landing. For those working to put him on the throne (including Varys and Tyrion at that point), he will remain Prince Aegon until he is dead at the hands of his rivals - and therefore proven an imposter in the eyes of the world - or crowned.

As for why Tyrion would want to aid Aegon (and Dany), they were a means to an end. If they win the Iron Throne then Cersei loses, and that is what Tyrion wants. Was that not why he suggested to Aegon sailing immediately for Westeros? If the Golden Company had gone east it would have been months longer before they were fighting against his family. When he heard the GC was in Westeros Tyrion thought (IIRC) 'the fool took the bait', so it seems Tyrion gave that advice because he personally would benefit, not because he thought it would help Aegon. I don't think Tyrion being "surprised about how much he cared" is important with respect to what he thought Aegon's true origins were, I think that means that he actually liked the boy, and found himself wanting the best for Aegon for that reason.

How about, "the things we do for love"?

One theory is that Illyrio's wife Serra was a direct descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. Her life paralleled Dany's to some extent - being orphaned, abandoned. Only Dany was reduced to a beggar's standing while Serra, apparently alone, was forced to sell herself in a pillow house in Lys. Illyro married her and her fire burned to claim the throne that should have gone to her ancestor, "the Better Man." Instead it went to a descendant of the bastard brother of The Conqueror.

She died of the Grey Death; but before she died she begged her husband to achieve her dream: take her son back to "their land" and put him on the throne that was meant for Daemon. "He is the Blood of the Dragon, of the Blood and Seed of Aegon the Conqueror. Promise me, Illyrio."

It's a theory I am familiar with, but not one I like.

I think Aegon is probably a fake but I do not like the Blackfyre thory. However it is one I often find trouble arguing with because, unlike the R+L=J theory which has a set of arguments that R+L=J supporters agree 90% of the details on, there is not a Blackyfyre theory. There are a dozen different Blackfyre theories, with sometimes agreeing but often contraditory arguments within them.

What I don't like about your specific variant is that a Blackfyre should never have been reduced to a state of slavery whilst the Golden Company remained strong. Let's take Illyio's words about the male line Blackyfres dying out to mean that the line did not die entirely. Let us say that Maelys had a sister or cousin; I would expect her to have strong ties and associations with the Golden Company (perhaps not with the army in the field, but we see no wives or daughters with them in Dance, so they possibly use semi-permanent quarters for family). If the Golden Company wanted to remain loyal to the Blackfyres after the war of Ninepenny kings, they would be especially careful with any remaining Blackfyre daughters. Personally I'd expect a female to marry one of the higher rank exiles and her descendants to remain at the heart of the GC, not end up in slavery in less than two generations. I do accept that some of the Blackfyre line may have lived beyond Maelys, but I think they must have died all out sometime between AL259 and AL282. If there were a living Blackfyre heir I'd have expected them to be at the heart of the GC, not in a slave house or on a pole boat - otherwise when and why did they drop off the map?

Also, if Aegon is a Blackfyre I would think it very convenient that they had a child of the exact right age to impersonate the murdered prince. What luck that Serra's pregnancy was within months of Elia's! and how fortunate that she also had a boychild! The logistics bother me less if the current Aegon is jmerely a boy of the right age and colouring that Illyrio procured sometime between the other Aegon's death and the arrival of Jon C. If you really want Serra to be his mother I do entertain the possibilty that Serra and Aegon were a mother and child pair that Illyrio purchased together (so that he could see the looks his imposter was inheriting from at least one parent) and that he fell came to love them both.