Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline in Existence

[Mychel_Redfort]

So textual evidence heavily suggests that the Prologue takes place in 297 AC, definitly.

I agree. With Yohn Bronze and Waymar being in Winterfell in 296, and Waymar insisting to have his first command, the Prologue must be in 297.

For the Dany stuff: I can map out her journey from her wedding until her pregnancy when I have access to my Lands of Ice and Fire maps, which will be this weekend. The journey map shows the route, and distance can be calculated, and compared to other instances.

You have it also here online : Journeys map

[Mychel_Redfort]

From Clash's prologue :

Last year when he took ill, the Citadel had sent Pylos out from Oldtown, mere days before Lord Stannis had closed the isle to help him in his labors, it was said, but Cressen knew the truth. Pylos had come to replace him when he died.

Do we have an idea when during AGOT Stannis has closed Dragonstone ? At first thought I would have said after he returned there when Robert did not chose him for Hand, but it would have been known in King's Landing, and Ned doesn't mention it when he wants Tomard to deliver his letter to Stannis. So is rather after Robert's death, and has Pylos only been with Cressen roughly three months ?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

From Clash's prologue :

Do we have an idea when during AGOT Stannis has closed Dragonstone ? At first thought I would have said after he returned there when Robert did not chose him for Hand, but it would have been known in King's Landing, and Ned doesn't mention it when he wants Tomard to deliver his letter to Stannis. So is rather after Robert's death, and has Pylos only been with Cressen roughly three months ?

From the same chapter

No craft that had come within sight of Dragonstone this past half year had been allowed to leave again.

That should give an indication ;)

[Mychel_Redfort]

That should give an indication ;)

It does indeed, thank you. I've missed this part when I scrutinized the chapter. So it places the closing of Dragonstone roughly when Ned and Robert come back in King's Landing. But perhaps they didn't know. After all, Tywin doesn't mention it neither when he speaks of Varys's reports on Stannis.

Edit : can we link this quote with one of the reason Stannis did hire Salladhor Saan ?

2nd Edit : well, how could KL have known if no ship is allowed to leave Dragonstone ? Though Varys could have heard of the disappearnces of ships

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

It does indeed, thank you. I've missed this part when I scrutinized the chapter. So it places the closing of Dragonstone roughly when Ned and Robert come back in King's Landing. But perhaps they didn't know. After all, Tywin doesn't mention it neither when he speaks of Varys's reports on Stannis.

Edit : can we link this quote with one of the reason Stannis did hire Salladhor Saan ?

Which "Stannis hiring Saan" quote do you mean?

2nd Edit : well, how could KL have known if no ship is allowed to leave Dragonstone ? Though Varys could have heard of the disappearnces of ships

Disappearnces? Ships that leave KL, are bound to go somewhere, and somewhere else after that. Half a year might be too soon to notice something. Though perhaps Varys noticed that no ships from Dragonstone were arriving in KL, there was no way he could figure out why that was, without sending spies of his own.. Who would have to travel by ship, and if their ship got caught, they would not be able to return..

[Bluetiger]

I think that there weren't many ships that passed near Dragonstone. Stannis ' ships took only ships very near "in sight of " Dragonstone. Probably only ships that go directly to Dragonstone use this way. Ships to White Harbor, North, Braavos probably went nearer shore , not in the middle of Blackwater Bay.

[Bluetiger]

We have to note that Illyrio was able to travel from Pentos to KL in GoT , so Stannis' blocade is only near Dragonstone and maybe Driftmark.

[Mychel_Redfort]

Which "Stannis hiring Saan" quote do you mean?

I meant your quote. If a ship comes within sight of Dragonstone without stopping, you could need pirates to catch him, and we know Davos was sent to Lys to hire Salladhor Saan. He is more a pirate and a smuggler than a sellsword. By the way, the Storm Dancer with Catelyn and Rodrik was caught in a storm at Dragonstone, so either they didn't sail too close or it was before the island was closed.

Disappearnces? Ships that leave KL, are bound to go somewhere, and somewhere else after that. Half a year might be too soon to notice something. Though perhaps Varys noticed that no ships from Dragonstone were arriving in KL, there was no way he could figure out why that was, without sending spies of his own.. Who would have to travel by ship, and if their ship got caught, they would not be able to return..

I agree, half a year might have been too soon to notice. And I guess Varys learned Stannis was hiring sellswords by his contacts in Lys and Myr rather than by spying Dragonstone itself.

[Ser Fingerbones]

-- Some Winds of Winter spoilers below --

I imagine you've all read the new Sansa (Alayne) chapter by now. I've been thinking about where it might be placed in the timeline and it's quite difficult to say. Perhaps there simply isn't enough information yet and the next couple Sansa chapters will give us a better idea, but there are a couple indications that suggest when this chapter takes place.

Firstly winter has not yet appeared to have reached the Vale, at least not in its fullest form. 'Though snow had blanketed the heights of the Giant’s Lance above, below the mountain the autumn lingered and winter wheat was ripening in the fields.' From the ADWD Epilogue, we know that it is snowing heavily in King's Landing, many leagues to the south of the Vale, and from AFFC Jaime VII, we know it's snowing in the Riverlands, to the south-west of the Gates of the Moon. Now, we're not entirely sure of the nature of the Winter snow, but it seems to me that it would hit the highlands of the Vale, before King's Landing. It is also possible that it simply isn't snowing on this particular today though it has before. In any case, this is something to consider.

Another piece of info comes from Myranda Royce when she claims that, 'Some of the competitors have been here for almost a moon’s turn.' We'll have to assume that these are the men who live closest to the Gates of the Moon. The competitors from furthest away, the Three Sisters, only came in the day before, according to Sansa - 'Those Sistermen who came in yesterday were gallant.' This means that the earliest possible position of this chapter is less than month after the final Sansa chapter in AFFC (Alayne III), which takes place, according to the timeline, on 5/14. Though this is assuming that Sansa thought up the plan just a day or two after that chapter, which is entirely possible. In fact, it's possible that she thought it up before Alayne III, as she simply thinks 'Why not surround him with Winged Knights? She had thought one night, after Sweetrobin had finally drifted off to sleep.' It's wholly possible that she had this thought while in the Eyrie, but she only brought it to Petyr at the Gates of the Moons.

She also recalls that, 'No sooner did she tell Petyr her idea than he went out and made it happen.' So we can assume that straight after hearing the plan Littlefinger made the appropriate arrangements and started sending off ravens. These could have fairly quickly reached some of the closest competitors, who swiftly made their way to the Gates of the Moon. These men are here for almost a month before the chapter begins.

For all this, I believe it's fair enough to say that the chapter takes place sometime between 6/14 and 6/25, about a month after Alayne III and around the time of the departure of the white raven. It's possible that the white raven is still on the way to the Vale, as it isn't mentioned in the chapter.Though this could also suggest that it arrived a while ago, and it's not on Sansa's mind.

So what do you all think?

Edit: Forgot to mention something. It should be noted that Sansa thinks of Cersei in the chapter, though only as someone who is killing dwarves, not as a prisoner. This is something that Sansa would surely think about if she knew of it, again giving us an idea of when it took place.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

I like the way you do the spoilers in grey on grey. I am d'accord that the new Alayne chapter will happen slightly more than a month after Alayne III.

[Ser Fingerbones]

I am d'accord that the new Alayne chapter will happen slightly more than a month after Alayne III.

It does seem like that yes, but this is only possible if either Sansa's story in Feast is pushed back or the KL story is pushed forward.

[PatrickStormborn]

Gonna copy what I just posted in the Alayne I thread:

Thinking about the timeline (again)... If this chapter takes place between Cersei's final AFfC chapter and the Walk of Shame, then perhaps Sansa's final AFfC chapter took place earlier than we first thought? In which case Myranda not knowing about the fall of Dragonstone wouldn't indicate that Dragonstone never fell to the Tyrells, but rather that news of it simply hadn't reached the Vale.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

*Some new TWOW chapter spoilers here too.....*

It seems to me more than a month has passed since Sansa came down from the Eyre to the Gates. Here's my thoughts from another thread:

(1) Sweetmilk clue

Sansa casually thinks that the Maester would have given Sweetrobin a dose of sweetmilk before the party. From Feast, giving another dose was a huge deal, the maester was very opposed, and said no more doses "for half a year, or more".

Now, we know from Sansa's thoughts she has absolutely no intention of harming SR, but of course LF may well be planning a sweetmilk OD for SR.

Still, he would have to move slowly on increasing SR's dosages (or risk being found out, given the widely known dangers), so if we don't want to say it's been six months since the last dose (assuming LF has been applying some pressure on the maester, but not too much), we can at least assume a couple of months; probably a few months.

This is all speculation of course, and the only "hard" bit of info we have is that a dose of sweetmilk should follow "half a year, or more" after the day they arrived at the Gates.

(2) Sweetrobin's hair

SR's hair has grown halfway down his chest, not having been cut since before Lysa died. Sansa mentions it's grown past his shoulders, meaning it was normally shorter that (or rather, it was shorter than that when Sansa arrived at the Eyre), so if it's halfway down his chest, that's probably 15-20cm growth. 15cm is apparently a year's worth of growth at normal hair growth rates - but remember, this is from before Lysa died, so it includes the time they spent up at the Eyre after that. Probably not a full year all up, but quite a bit of time - again suggesting a few months spent at the Gates.

(3) Tourney

The first contenders started arriving a month ago. When inviting them, how much heads up time would LF have given them to get their stuff together and show up at the Gates? A moon's turn? Two? From an organisation side, this seems like a big tourney, it would have taken time to organise. LF moved quickly, but I think months rather than weeks. We also don't know how long they'd been there before Sansa had the idea to have a tourney in the first place. It doesn't sound like she had the thought up in the Eyre - it sounds like she told LF when she thought it up, and he moved immediately from there, but this seems to all happen down at the Gates.

Again, all this together suggests a few months at least.

(4) Seasons
We don't know if the winter white raven arrived at the Gates, which would helpfully line this up with the epilogue of ADWD. There's no snow in the Vale in Sansa's chapter, which should indicate it's earlier in the year than the epilogue of ADWD. But, while the Vale is more north than KL, the Vale proper is low-lying (rather than mountainous), and is also shielded by the Mountains of the Moon. Perhaps it takes longer for snow to arrive there?

I don't think the seasons help us work out how long Sansa's been there, just that it's most likely still behind the timeline during the ADWD epilogue.

Clearest marker for other timelines: Oswell Kettleblack's arrival

Oswell's arrival most likely brings the news of Cersei's arrest. If this had been known before, Sansa would have thought about it when she thought of Cersei. And regardless of how tightly LF controls the flow of info, Cersei Lannister's arrest for adultery, murder etc, would be known across the realm within days.

So I'm comfortable saying that Sansa's arc has only now just caught up with Cersei's arrest; but it has not gone any further.

Given this, Sansa spending months at the Gates does NOT line up well with the existing understanding of the timeline, which has Sansa coming down to the Gates around the same time as Cersei is arrested.

Implications for timeline:
(1) Possibility 1: Sansa spent a lot less time at the Eyre, and a lot more at the Gates. This means that all the events at the Eyre are compressed so that there's more time at the Gates, but the other storylines are not affected?

(2) Possibility 2: Sansa spent quite a bit of time both up at the Eyre and down at the Gates. This has more wide-ranging implications, as it would require Cersei's storyline to be pushed out to later in 300AC, to account for Sansa only finding out about it after she'd spent months at the Eyre AND months at the Gates.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Well done, well thought, @Lord_Pepsi_Cupps!

[Mithras]

The high road was already closed by snow in AFfC. But I guess the Gates of the Moon is at a lower altitude with the mountains protecting them from excessive snowfall.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Well we know there was snow up in the Eyre when Sansa was there, while in the new Alayne chapter (however long after the descent from the Eyre it takes place) the "winter wheat" is still ripening - not only is it not snowed under, but it's warm enough still for one last harvest.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Well we know there was snow up in the Eyre when Sansa was there, while in the new Alayne chapter (however long after the descent from the Eyre it takes place) the "winter wheat" is still ripening - not only is it not snowed under, but it's warm enough still for one last harvest.

Because they are surrounded by mountains that kind of shelter them, the snow there doesn't reach them as fast as elsewhere.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Is Miranda Royce a useful character for anchoring the timeline? She seems set up as a wily "in the know" character, so I assume that if she doesn't know about something big it's because it hasn't happened yet.

So if she doesn't know about Dragonstone, Cersei etc, it's a further hint that the storyline she's in (Sansa's) isn't as far advanced as some other ones..

[Mithras]

The maester at White Harbor told Davos that Stannis would not hold Storm's End and Dragonstone for long. Perhaps Myranda too saw it as a matter of time and told Sansa that Stannis lost Dragonstone although it did not happen yet.

[Ser Fingerbones]

I'm not so sure if Oswell's news was undoubtedly in regards to Cersei's arrest. The main thing to suggest that is that Sansa thinks of Cersei, yet she doesn't think of the fact that she's been arrested. Well another look at the quote may suggest otherwise:

No man can wed me so long as my dwarf husband still lives somewhere in this world. Queen Cersei had collected the head of a dozen dwarfs, Petyr claimed, but none were Tyrion’s.

She thinks of Cersei as she considers her current marriage. She isn't truly thinking of Cersei in the thought, but of Tyrion, someone who's life actually concerns her at present. It's possible that she knows of Cersei's imprisonment she simply just doesn't think of it, as she has other things on her mind. (her betrothal or the tourney that she helped to organize or all of the other immediate things she has to worry about.)

Another thing to consider is the structuring of the paragraph. The thought concerning Cersei occurs in the middle of a conversation with Sweetrobin. It would have felt a little awkward if we were taken away from the conversation to hear Sansa's thoughts on Cersei's imprisonment. She is thinking about marriage and trying to talk Robert down, not of King's Landing and the intrigues there.

It's possible the news could actually be of Aegon's landing or Cersei's Walk of Shame. It is by no means definitely of Cersei's arrest.