R+L=J v.160

[nanother]

11 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Maybe, maybe not.  It seems that when the betrothal is announced, Baelish challenges, and Brandon travels to Riverrun to answer the challenge.  That would be 282, as within a fortnight-ish, Brandon charges off to King's Landing.  Perhaps the promise is made, but the actual betrothal is delayed. 

Hmmm, in any case, the agreement was solid enough and public enough that Jaime knew about it. It might be that Baelish was too young at the time of the betrothal to care (Cat was 12, Lysa younger and Baelish even younger IIRC, so he'd have been 10-11 at most?), and it was the announcement of the wedding itself that set him off ... their ages in the passage you're probably referring to suggest that, as it seems unlikely that they'd have waited till nearly the wedding itself with announcing the betrothal:  When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand. It was madness. Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen.

[Ser Leftwich]

37 minutes ago, nanother said:

Hmmm, in any case, the agreement was solid enough and public enough that Jaime knew about it. It might be that Baelish was too young at the time of the betrothal to care (Cat was 12, Lysa younger and Baelish even younger IIRC, so he'd have been 10-11 at most?), and it was the announcement of the wedding itself that set him off ... their ages in the passage you're probably referring to suggest that, as it seems unlikely that they'd have waited till nearly the wedding itself with announcing the betrothal:  When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand. It was madness. Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen.

Something else might have changed in Petyr's life. Perhaps his father died and he could make his own decisions about who he would marry. Or he waited until a public announcement as a time and place to confront Brandon.

[MtnLion]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

The betrothal is the promise. It's the same thing. We are told Catelyn is twelve when her father tells her of her marriage pact. This places this part of the STAB alliance well before any of the crimes we know of committed by Aerys against the Starks, the Baratheons, the Arryns, or Tullys.

Marriage pact is not the betrothal, then?  Catelyn's betrothal was announced, and Littlefinger challenged that day.  Brandon responded to the immediately to the challenge.  This is not several years earlier, because we know Littlefinger's age. 

[SFDanny]

52 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Agree that the unknowable aspects could make or break all of this.

Two thoughts about Steffon:

1) He became a Lord at a very young age, 14-15, which ends up happening to Robert, too. Fostering his eldest with an older and more experienced lord in Jon Arryn makes a whole lot of sense. Steffon maybe did not get the kinds of lessons he would have wanted as a fosteree and wanted better for his son, Robert.

2) What would be in STAB or SAB for Steffon? He is the cousin of the king, childhood friends with the king and current Hand, and his father was Hand. Other than fostering Robert with Jon, which seems sensible (outlined above), nothing Steffon does seems in opposition to Aerys, granted we don't really know anything he does between 260-278.

1) I don't disagree. These are possible reasons for Steffon putting Robert into Jon Arryn's care. Again, the problem is we don't know when Robert goes to the Vale. Steffon having reasons for possibly sending Robert there that have nothing to do with a conspiracy against Aerys doesn't mean the conspiracy doesn't grow from this relationship of Ned and Robert to Jon as the first step.

2) If Steffon was involved, and I'm not claiming he was, the best possible motivation would seem to me his seeing the growing madness of his cousin the king. He may have been the nearest person with any access to Aerys other than Rhaella and Rhaegar.

[nanother]

57 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

1) I don't disagree. These are possible reasons for Steffon putting Robert into Jon Arryn's care. Again, the problem is we don't know when Robert goes to the Vale. Steffon having reasons for possibly sending Robert there that have nothing to do with a conspiracy against Aerys doesn't mean the conspiracy doesn't grow from this relationship of Ned and Robert to Jon as the first step.

2) If Steffon was involved, and I'm not claiming he was, the best possible motivation would seem to me his seeing the growing madness of his cousin the king. He may have been the nearest person with any access to Aerys other than Rhaella and Rhaegar.

Ned recalls growing up together with Robert, I took that to mean that they were both raised by Arryn from a very young age. The most specific reference I can find is that Ned reminds Robert what he was like when he was Joffrey's age. Joffrey is 12 at that point, implying that Ned already knew Robert when Robert was 12. That would put the beginning of Robert's fostering at 274/275-ish at the latest.

If we look at other houses, Ned was 8, Jaime was 11 when he was sent away, Ned Dayne is, what, 12? and squire to Lord Beric ... Jon Arryn was going to send Sweetrobin to Dragonstone at 6, younger than any others we heard about (I guess it was really urgent to get him away from Lysa). That's all I can remember off the top of my head, but so far it seems like this sort of thing is done in the age range of 10-12 and possibly younger.

Regarding the growing madness of Aerys, I came across something interesting in Cressen's PoV. He remarks that the Mad King Aerys wasn't quite so mad at the time Steffon went on his last voyage. Which suggests to me that Cressen doesn't sound like he had any inherent dislike for Targaryens, or even Aerys. This was after Duskendale, which TWoIaF names as the turning point in Aerys's madness. Yet Cressen seems to think he was still OK at that point.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, nanother said:

Ned recalls growing up together with Robert, I took that to mean that they were both raised by Arryn from a very young age. The most specific reference I can find is that Ned reminds Robert what he was like when he was Joffrey's age. Joffrey is 12 at that point, implying that Ned already knew Robert when Robert was 12. That would put the beginning of Robert's fostering at 274/275-ish at the latest.

If we look at other houses, Ned was 8, Jaime was 11 when he was sent away, Ned Dayne is, what, 12? and squire to Lord Beric ... Jon Arryn was going to send Sweetrobin to Dragonstone at 6, younger than any others we heard about (I guess it was really urgent to get him away from Lysa). That's all I can remember off the top of my head, but so far it seems like this sort of thing is done in the age range of 10-12 and possibly younger.

Thanks for the catch of Ned speaking of when Robert was Joffrey's age. As I wrote earlier I think it likely that Robert is in the Vale before Steffon's death, and I agree it likely from the the general tone of their references that they know each other for a longer time than Robert fathering Mya tells us. The Joffrey quote is the best thing yet I know of to point in that direction. It still could be that Ned is only referencing what he knows from Robert and others about Robert behaved when he was Joffrey's age, but it seems more likely Ned knows first hand. 

1 hour ago, nanother said:

Regarding the growing madness of Aerys, I came across something interesting in Cressen's PoV. He remarks that the Mad King Aerys wasn't quite so mad at the time Steffon went on his last voyage. Which suggests to me that Cressen doesn't sound like he had any inherent dislike for Targaryens, or even Aerys. This was after Duskendale, which TWoIaF names as the turning point in Aerys's madness. Yet Cressen seems to think he was still OK at that point.

Is the "he" in "Cressen doesn't sound like he" referring to Steffon or Cressen himself? Assuming you mean Cressen let me respond.

I think the best evidence of Cressen's attitude towards the Targaryens is how he acts towards Melisandre. He tries to kill her because she is trying to influence Stannis with all the things he hates and fears - magic, prophecy, and stories of resurrecting dragons. Who else do we know who are obsessed with the same topics? The Targaryen rulers of Westeros.

Cressen's attempt to poison Melisandre is almost exactly what Marwyn warns Sam about when he tells him not to speak of these topics around other maesters because they will poison his breakfast if he does. Is it an accident that Marwyn's warning to Sam is a spot on description of what Cressen does two books earlier? I don't think so. Cressen is, by his actions, a prime candidate for Marwyn's maester's conspiracy which he said did away with the dragons the first time.

It is very interesting that he was the maester of youthful Robert, Stannis, and Renly. So, I take his remarks about Aerys's madness for just the face value of what he says, not an indication of a feeling one way or another towards Aerys or all Targaryens. It's not a question of hating the individual, but a need to stop the use of magic and dragons and other "superstitions" from ruling Westeros. To do so, we have proof that at least one maester is indeed willing to commit murder. And, again, I think the maester's conspiracy has a lot to do with the building of the STAB alliance.

 

[nanother]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Is the "he" in "Cressen doesn't sound like he" referring to Steffon or Cressen himself? Assuming you mean Cressen let me respond.

Yes, sorry, I did mean Cressen.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

I think the best evidence of Cressen's attitude towards the Targaryens is how he acts towards Melisandre. He tries to kill her because she is trying to influence Stannis with all the things he hates and fears - magic, prophecy, and stories of resurrecting dragons. Who else do we know who are obsessed with the same topics? The Targaryen rulers of Westeros.

Cressen's attempt to poison Melisandre is almost exactly what Marwyn warns Sam about when he tells him not to speak of these topics around other maesters because they will poison his breakfast if he does. Is it an accident that Marwyn's warning to Sam is a spot on description of what Cressen does two books earlier? I don't think so. Cressen is, by his actions, a prime candidate for Marwyn's maester's conspiracy which he said did away with the dragons the first time.

That was part of it, but I think Cressen was ultimately moved by something very different than what Marwyn was talking about. Throughout his whole PoV he has some vague sense of doom warring with his Citadel training, both of which agree that Melisandre has to go, but I think what really pushes him to do the deed is the instinctive, irrational side. His disturbing dreams, his fascination with the comet even as he assures Shireen that it's just a meteor, his terror of Melisandre, his horror over how Stannis has changed ... this reads less like a calculated decision against magic and prophecy, and more like him trying to protect Stannis from this terrible red woman. Protect from the 'madness' of being ruled by magic and prophecy, yes, but also from the inhumanity and wrongness of Melisandre's advice. Indeed, he flat out says that he does it “for the sake of the realm, and the soul of my lord.” And he was right to fear for both, as we learn later - much of this is fleshed out in the Davos chapters. I think their reasons for wanting to  kill Melisandre are actually very similar.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

It is very interesting that he was the maester of youthful Robert, Stannis, and Renly. So, I take his remarks about Aerys's madness for just the face value of what he says, not an indication of a feeling one way or another towards Aerys or all Targaryens. It's not a question of hating the individual, but a need to stop the use of magic and dragons and other "superstitions" from ruling Westeros. To do so, we have proof that at least one maester is indeed willing to commit murder. And, again, I think the maester's conspiracy has a lot to do with the building of the STAB alliance.

 

Yeah, but Aerys was never just an individual ... I'd expect that if Cressen had enough of a problem with Targaryen blood per se that he was willing to conspire against Aerys for that reason, his thoughts of Aerys would reflect it in some way. Yet what he have is him speaking about Aerys like someone who was perfectly serviceable until he happened to go mad. Of course, I also see his actions against Melisandre in a different light than you, as I explained above. Clearly, what Mel is doing is truly worrying for any sensible person, so no need to assume Citadel bigotry there, and the same was true for mad-Mad Aerys. And there's no indication that pre-Mad Aerys and Rhaegar caused such worry for Cressen.

[Ser Creighton]

It's been a long time. I see some familiar faces, some not so. I hate to stop in for old home week without bringing any presents. So I got a nice little Black and gold box I am going to open for you. Oh and what's inside, a shinny new Jon. Why is Jon in a Black and gold box you might ask. Inverse parallel time. I's not going to be to detailed, and I will be paraphrasing, saves time.

Some of you know some of these basics some of you don't.

3 and 1 representing an inversion of each other. That will be important here. It's all about Jon and Cersei's kids of which there are three. Black and Gold ringing any bells now?

2 men, Robert and Ned, Stag and Dire Wolf.

Robert has 3 Children who are not his Children though he does not know that. Gold is there Crown and Gold is their shroud. They are bastards, who presented as legitimate Royalty. Robert has been lied too and believes he is the father.

Ned has 1 Son who is presented as a bastard, Ned lies about the legitimacy of this child and claims to be the father.

Now none of the children I am speaking about belong to Ned or Robert, they have other children. Like Robb and Ned, funny how that worked out. Not the only kids of course., but you get the idea.

So when Ned is searching through the book of hair, that's what I am going to call it, what is he doing? He is trying to figure out if there is a legitimate heir to the throne. What throne? The Iron Throne? Who's throne is that? It's the Targaryen throne. Claim whoever you want to be king but they made that throne and built KL. 

Ned will end up doing a Lyanna with Robert on his death bed. What did Robert want Ned to do?

So getting back to the book, Ned gets the big book of hair, does not figure anything out but off he goes to Tobho Motts Ch 27. Very important place, lots of symbolism.

You get the Black and White Doors, and we get Gendry, Gendry has great symbolism.  So what does he and we learn. We learn Gendry is Roberts bastard and his mother had blonde hair while his is black like his fathers. but what else is going on? Well like Robert, Gendry has the horned lord symbolism, Robert with his stag helmet Gendry with his bull helmet. How are Gendry's eyes referenced? Blue as Ice. What else is referenced? The Wall coming down and purple and silver.

If you don't know about the Horned lord or Horn lord symbolism it's pretty simple, think symbolic of the Night's King. Robert vs. Rhaegar was kind of this alternate prelim to the main event.

Later Ned will make the connections, and using the book and we get the black before the gold. It was a line similar to that, I don't remember the exact quote. This is about the 3 bastard children presented as legitimate heir's to the Iron throne. We hear something else about them much later on, Gold will be their crowns and Gold their shrouds. Right? Remember that? When you are talking about shrouds there you are talking about death but also obscuring. Ned had to figure out the truth about these kids, their legitimacy was obscured.

Think about those two ideas. Because Jon is an inverse here, does that relate to him at all? Is Jon shrouded, does something obscure Jon? Of course Jon is a mystery. So yeah he is obscured. How is he shrouded right now? Is Jon a Stark or a Targ? Yes and no, Jon's new family is the watch. Why? Because he took "the Black." His shroud is black. Did he die with this shroud? Why it looks that way. And what does the Black precede?

Can you see how Martin inverted it. Lannister children, golden crowns first, then golden shrouds. Jon is not illegitimate, his shroud is not gold, it was black and black was the sign of legitimacy here. And he was shrouded in black and died first, he wore no crown before that. Martin flipped the colors from gold to black and flipped the order of events. He even tells you he is doing it, he tells you to look for the black as the mark of a legitimate heir in this parallel. He tells you they will be shrouded, obscured perhaps even dead.  

 

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, nanother said:

That was part of it, but I think Cressen was ultimately moved by something very different than what Marwyn was talking about. Throughout his whole PoV he has some vague sense of doom warring with his Citadel training, both of which agree that Melisandre has to go, but I think what really pushes him to do the deed is the instinctive, irrational side. His disturbing dreams, his fascination with the comet even as he assures Shireen that it's just a meteor, his terror of Melisandre, his horror over how Stannis has changed ... this reads less like a calculated decision against magic and prophecy, and more like him trying to protect Stannis from this terrible red woman. Protect from the 'madness' of being ruled by magic and prophecy, yes, but also from the inhumanity and wrongness of Melisandre's advice. Indeed, he flat out says that he does it “for the sake of the realm, and the soul of my lord.” And he was right to fear for both, as we learn later - much of this is fleshed out in the Davos chapters. I think their reasons for wanting to  kill Melisandre are actually very similar.

Yeah, but Aerys was never just an individual ... I'd expect that if Cressen had enough of a problem with Targaryen blood per se that he was willing to conspire against Aerys for that reason, his thoughts of Aerys would reflect it in some way. Yet what he have is him speaking about Aerys like someone who was perfectly serviceable until he happened to go mad. Of course, I also see his actions against Melisandre in a different light than you, as I explained above. Clearly, what Mel is doing is truly worrying for any sensible person, so no need to assume Citadel bigotry there, and the same was true for mad-Mad Aerys. And there's no indication that pre-Mad Aerys and Rhaegar caused such worry for Cressen.

Sorry, nanother, I know I'm wandering more than a bit off topic here, but all of the backstory seems so intertwined to me it's easy to do. So, let me just say this in response and then I'll stop and try to get the essay finished this week. I have a road trip across country to do, so I'd like to post it for further discussion before I go. And thanks to those who read this stuff and find it interesting enough to comment on.

To your points, it's not that I disagree with your observation here, but that I think what we are looking at is classic Martin. He introduces a character everyone must find sympathetic - old, loyal, and long suffering surrogate father Maester Cressen. Cressen tries to not only kill someone he sees as evil, but someone he sees as a threat to his beloved Stannis, and he is willing to die in the attempt. What could be wrong in that?

Two books later he introduces the maester's conspiracy and a book after that he has Lady Dustin tell us of the plots of Winterfell's maester. We are, in effect, told the other side. There is no black and white here. It is all gray. Maester Cressen does indeed have good reasons for doing what he does, but that doesn't mean the maesters, like him, who murder people who seek after magic, prophecy and dragons are right in doing what they do. They want a world without these powers so that it will be understandable, controllable, and the lives of people will be better. Noble aims.

But Martin's world is not simple. Dragons exist. The threat of the Others exist. Magic is real. So, when the Maester's try to kill the dragons, as Marwyn tells us they do, or they teach to all that the Others are only old fairy tales made up by primitives, and magic never existed, what we have is an order of men fighting for an enlightened world, but whose actions threaten everyone's existence. Suddenly, viewed in that light these men of reason aren't so just and good. Martin, I think, wants us to ponder these questions when he smacks us upside of the head with such contradictory points of view.

Anyway, I'll invite you to think on these questions with me in another thread soon. If you are interested, I'll let you know when I post it.

 

[MtnLion]

10 hours ago, Ser Creighton said:

It's the Targaryen throne.

Look how far you have come since we first met.  Hoo-Yah

[MindBomb]

@SFDanny

I'm right with you on the political angle. There are definitely three factions forming up at the time of Robert's Rebellion. I look at STAB as a further push for more autonomy among the Lords Paramount. Not only do we have a rollback of the reforms enacted by Aegon V, but we have a serious testing of the boundaries by Duskendale. I mean, they captured and held the king for half a year! At heart, the Darklyns wanted to go back to the days without the Targaryens in Kings Landing, when Duskendale was a major trading hub.

One of the lessons from the War of the Ninepenny Kings is that the monarchy needs the support of the great houses; I'm not so sure that the lords feel that they need the king. If you're one of the great houses, then you must be taking note of how weakened the Targaryens have become...

So, Aerys must deal with two different power blocs: STAB and Team Rhaegar. Let's look at "crazy" Aerys' actions. He takes away Jaime as a possible marriage compact with STAB, removing the Lannisters from the growing alliance. He kills Brandon Stark, ruining another marriage agreement and aims to remove Ned and Robert from the alliance as well. He is setting out to dismantle STAB, one marriageable heir at a time! It's not a small leap to see that Aerys would want to grab Lyanna at the point--certainly, assuming that he eventually finds out that Lyanna was the KotLT and he has a justification for "treason." At the same time, he is disrupting any plans Rhaegar must have in gaining support from STAB to add to his support from Dorne, among others. Once Rhaegar goes into hiding with Lyanna--and I'm sure that Aerys knew that he "abducted" her--then an alliance between Rhaegar and the Starks may still be possible. He then recalls Elia and kids as hostages to coerce Rhaegar into doing his duty.The wildcard is Tywin, of course. And Aerys knows this. If Aerys can get the support of Tywin, then I think he rightfully believes that he can retain the throne. That's why Jaime is such an important "crutch."

I believe, however, that Tywin is Rhaegar's ace in the hole (see, for example, Tywin's comments at Duskendale, Rhaegar's conversation with Jaime prior to the battle at the Trident). Why is Tywin's army on the move, if not to support the victor  at the Trident? The same actions occur by the Lannister forces--gain entry, secure Kings Landing, and kill...Aerys, if Rhaegar wins...or Elia and kids, if Rhaegar loses. Either way, a Win-Win for Tywin. This is why Jaime is left behind. It is probably assumed that Jaime would not oppose his father in either action. Rhaegar knows that some of the other Kingsguard would carry out their duty in protecting the kings (Hightower, Barristan...possibly Darry)--and they are removed from Kings Landing.

This is not to say that Rhaegar did not come to love Lyanna. Or that the prophecy may have given added justification for Rhaegar's actions. I just think that the political machinations at the time are really the main catalysts for the events that occur.

[nanother]

9 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Sorry, nanother, I know I'm wandering more than a bit off topic here, but all of the backstory seems so intertwined to me it's easy to do. So, let me just say this in response and then I'll stop and try to get the essay finished this week. I have a road trip across country to do, so I'd like to post it for further discussion before I go. And thanks to those who read this stuff and find it interesting enough to comment on.

To your points, it's not that I disagree with your observation here, but that I think what we are looking at is classic Martin. He introduces a character everyone must find sympathetic - old, loyal, and long suffering surrogate father Maester Cressen. Cressen tries to not only kill someone he sees as evil, but someone he sees as a threat to his beloved Stannis, and he is willing to die in the attempt. What could be wrong in that?

Two books later he introduces the maester's conspiracy and a book after that he has Lady Dustin tell us of the plots of Winterfell's maester. We are, in effect, told the other side. There is no black and white here. It is all gray. Maester Cressen does indeed have good reasons for doing what he does, but that doesn't mean the maesters, like him, who murder people who seek after magic, prophecy and dragons are right in doing what they do. They want a world without these powers so that it will be understandable, controllable, and the lives of people will be better. Noble aims.

But Martin's world is not simple. Dragons exist. The threat of the Others exist. Magic is real. So, when the Maester's try to kill the dragons, as Marwyn tells us they do, or they teach to all that the Others are only old fairy tales made up by primitives, and magic never existed, what we have is an order of men fighting for an enlightened world, but whose actions threaten everyone's existence. Suddenly, viewed in that light these men of reason aren't so just and good. Martin, I think, wants us to ponder these questions when he smacks us upside of the head with such contradictory points of view.

Anyway, I'll invite you to think on these questions with me in another thread soon. If you are interested, I'll let you know when I post it.

 

Yes, please let me know when you post the new thread. Although, if you post a link in this thread (or then next incarnation), I'll notice anyway.

 

To clarify, I'm on board with nearly all of what you say in this post - I'm not arguing against there being a maester's conspiracy, and it possibly having an influence on STAB, our apparent disagreement here is about the likelihood of Cressen in particular acting as part of that conspiracy, or even acting against House Targaryen solely out of fear of magic and prophecy. Also, I'm not talking about Cressen's attempted murder in terms of right or wrong, but in terms of the nature and intensity of the problem he finally acted upon. I get the impression that if Melisandre used any other kind of influence to lead Stannis to the same decisions, he'd still have tried to kill her, and if she used her powers to steer him in a more sensible direction, he might not have minded too much that magic and prophecy were involved.

[Chris5083]

I'm totally new to posting on forums so forgive me. I started a new post about a couple questions I have: 

 

Ok, I know there are tons of theories out there, and who knows what GRRM is planning on revealing. But I'm curious, what was the time period between the tourney at harrenhal where the famous rhaegar/Lyanna/crown fiasco happens and Lyanna's "abduction" ? Was it weeks, months or years between? Is it possible she had a secret child before giving birth to another child(ren) at ToJ? That child could have been present? Thus leading to 3 children of fire and ice? Is her whereabouts known during the years of Robert's rebellion? 

 

I'm thinking maybe Lyanna got pregnant at the tourney, or even sometime after, and got "abducted" (ran away) when she started to show? 

 

I believe the tourney was in 281 and the ToJ was 283? So theoretically she could have given birth to a child, and kept its existence a secret with rhaegar a secret. Then getting pregnant again and having another child or maybe even a set of twins? 

 

[Wayward Sand Star]

On 5/4/2016 at 9:29 AM, SFDanny said:

Anyway, I'll invite you to think on these questions with me in another thread soon. If you are interested, I'll let you know when I post it.

You've sparked my interest, so I'd be happy to know when it's posted too. Hopefully I will have more thoughts to offer on the matter by then.
 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

11 hours ago, Chris5083 said:

I'm totally new to posting on forums so forgive me. I started a new post about a couple questions I have: 

 

Ok, I know there are tons of theories out there, and who knows what GRRM is planning on revealing. But I'm curious, what was the time period between the tourney at harrenhal where the famous rhaegar/Lyanna/crown fiasco happens and Lyanna's "abduction" ? Was it weeks, months or years between? Is it possible she had a secret child before giving birth to another child(ren) at ToJ? That child could have been present? Thus leading to 3 children of fire and ice? Is her whereabouts known during the years of Robert's rebellion? 

 

I'm thinking maybe Lyanna got pregnant at the tourney, or even sometime after, and got "abducted" (ran away) when she started to show? 

 

I believe the tourney was in 281 and the ToJ was 283? So theoretically she could have given birth to a child, and kept its existence a secret with rhaegar a secret. Then getting pregnant again and having another child or maybe even a set of twins? 

 

Somewhere between months to a year. We cannot say exactly, unfortunately. 

[Chris5083]

34 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Somewhere between months to a year. We cannot say exactly, unfortunately. 

Thanks for the reply! Ok so theoretically, if Lyanna got pregnant at the tourney, got "abducted" towards the end of the pregnancy, had the kid... Got pregnant again right away, and had the kid before or during ToJ? 

I know it's a stretch, but still.. Something to ponder for sure.

[Chris5083]

34 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Somewhere between months to a year. We cannot say exactly, unfortunately. 

Thanks for the reply! Ok so theoretically, if Lyanna got pregnant at the tourney, got "abducted" towards the end of the pregnancy, had the kid... Got pregnant again right away, and had the kid before or during ToJ? 

I know it's a stretch, but still.. Something to ponder for sure.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

40 minutes ago, Chris5083 said:

Thanks for the reply! Ok so theoretically, if Lyanna got pregnant at the tourney, got "abducted" towards the end of the pregnancy, had the kid... Got pregnant again right away, and had the kid before or during ToJ? 

I know it's a stretch, but still.. Something to ponder for sure.

Timeline-wise, we can't say, because we don't know when exactly the tourney occured in 281 AC, and we don't know when exactly Lyanna and Rhaegar disappeared. The war would have begun late in 282 AC (since it lasted "close to a year" and ended in late 283 AC). Lyanna's disappearance would have occured some time before (with Brandon and later Rickard travelling to KL and being executed in between the disappearance and the start of the war). That does make it sound a bit like there was at least a half a year in between, but, I'll emphasize again, we cannot be exactly sure about the exact amount of time that had passed.

But if Lyanna had gotten pregnant twice, there probably should be some hints somewhere. And personally, I haven't seen any.

[Ygrain]

43 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Timeline-wise, we can't say, because we don't know when exactly the tourney occured in 281 AC, and we don't know when exactly Lyanna and Rhaegar disappeared. The war would have begun late in 282 AC (since it lasted "close to a year" and ended in late 283 AC). Lyanna's disappearance would have occured some time before (with Brandon and later Rickard travelling to KL and being executed in between the disappearance and the start of the war). That does make it sound a bit like there was at least a half a year in between, but, I'll emphasize again, we cannot be exactly sure about the exact amount of time that had passed.

But if Lyanna had gotten pregnant twice, there probably should be some hints somewhere. And personally, I haven't seen any.

Also, let us not forget that while the SSM placing approximately a year between the tourney and Lyanna's disappearance seems to have become outdated timeline-wise, it still means that when planning Lyanna's backstory, GRRM didn't have in mind a HH pregnancy.

[MtnLion]

14 hours ago, Chris5083 said:

But I'm curious, what was the time period between the tourney at harrenhal where the famous rhaegar/Lyanna/crown fiasco happens and Lyanna's "abduction" ? Was it weeks, months or years between?

It is at least nine months, and likely a few months more.  In between Elia becomes pregnant and gives birth to Aegon, on Dragonstone.  The maesters tell her and Rhaegar that any further pregnancies would likely result in her death.  Rhaegar says, "There must be one more". 

14 hours ago, Chris5083 said:

Is it possible she had a secret child before giving birth to another child(ren) at ToJ?

It appears (not confirmed) that Lyanna, Brandon, Ned, Benjen, and Rickard wintered at Winterfell together, when the small window of false spring expired after the tourney.  Could Lyanna have been pregnant or just have given birth the day that her betrothal to Robert is announced (at Winterfell) and she voices her reticence to Ned?  NO.

14 hours ago, Chris5083 said:

That child could have been present?

NO.

14 hours ago, Chris5083 said:

Thus leading to 3 children of fire and ice?

NO.

14 hours ago, Chris5083 said:

Is her whereabouts known during the years of Robert's rebellion? 

Rhaegar and Lyanna were both missing for the "about" a year of Robert's Rebellion.  We need to fit Aegon, Rhaenys, Jaime's ages tot he timeline.  Jaime is fifteen at Harrenhal, the youngest ever to swear the Kingsguard oath.  He is seventeen when he slays King Aerys.  Rhaenys was born during the first year of Rhaegar's and Elia's marriage, and her birth resulted in Elia being bedridden for "half a year".  After she recovers from being bedridden she attends Harrenhal.  Near the end of the winter that follows the false spring she gives birth to Aegon on Dragonstone, but early enough that the worst of the winter has not frozen the Black Water solid and Aerys orders fires lit on the walls of the city.  Rhaegar was not to be found when the fires were lit, which is certainly before Catelyn's betrothal is announced in Riverrun and Littlefinger challenges.  Brandon responds to the challenge as soon as he can travel, presumably after the worst of the winter has passed, including the freezing of the Black Water.  Lyanna does not appear to have disappeared before Brandon's duel.  He had told Catelyn that he had a short errand to attend to, and that they would wed when he returned. 

Rhaenys was "two, maybe three" when she was killed (Tywinn is not sure if her birthday had passed, yet, when she was killed).  Aegon is a "babe at the breast when he is killed, about a year old, plus or minus a month or two". 

My calculations have always come to 21 months between the crowning at Harrenhal and the Sack of King's Landing, with a possible deviation of three months.