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Mance=Rhaegar


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- “I would sooner take off Mance’s head myself. He was a man of the Night’s Watch, once. By rights, his life belongs to us.” “Pyp says that Lady Melisandre means to give him to the flames, to work some sorcery.” “Pyp should learn to hold his tongue. I have heard the same from others. King’s blood, to wake a dragon. Where Melisandre thinks to find a sleeping dragon, no one is quite sure. It’s nonsense. Mance’s blood is no more royal than mine own. He has never worn a crown nor sat a throne. He’s a brigand, nothing more. There’s no power in brigand’s blood.” The raven looked up from the floor. “Blood,” it screamed. Jon paid no mind.

This long winded theory centers around the important roles of Kings Blood(Namely pure Valyrian blood + the ancient blood of the Kings of Winter) and Blood Magic in our story and why its so closely related to the mysterious life and death of Prince Rhaegar. It also includes well known topics such as: Ned’s promise to Lyanna, the mystery of Ashara Dayne, the events at the Tower of Joy, The events at the Tourney of Harenhall, The three heads of the dragon, Cersei’s Valonqar and the prophecy of The Prince That Was Promised.

- "Why did they wed if they did not love each other?" "Your grandsire commanded it. A woods witch had told him that the prince was promised would be born of their line." "A woods witch?" Dany was astonished. "She came to court with Jenny of Oldstones. A stunted thing, grotesque to look upon. A dwarf, most people said, though dear to Lady Jenny, who always claimed that she was one of the children of the forest." "What became of her?" "Summerhall." The word was fraught with doom.

 

ALOT OF SPOILERS:

 

-------> The Tourney at Harrenhal 281AC
--> Ned falls in love with Ashara.
--> Ashara falls in love with Brandon.
--> Ashara gets pregnant with Brandon’s Child and returns to Starfall.
----> Robert's Rebellion begins 282 AC.


-------> I’m going to start with my favorite character Rhaegar and the theory that he was resurrected after the Trident. I am also putting forward the idea that some characters, at varying levels of understanding, are aware of the Prophecy of the Prince that was Promised, the long night, and the impending doom (Melisandre, Aegon V (Egg), Maester Aemon, Marwyn the mage, Euron Greyjoy, and of course BloodRaven. Rhaegar and Arthur Dayne are likely aware of this as well.

---> Other than his death, hardly anything is known about Rhaegar and his life was shrouded in mystery.

- “It was said that no man ever knew Prince Rhaegar, truly. I had the privilege of seeing him in tourney, though, and often heard him play his harp with its silver strings.” - Barristan

 --> The story of Rhaegar’s life has always intrigued me more than anything else in the series mostly because of how mysteriously awesome he was. He was as skilled a warrior as he was a scholar and his birth is an even bigger mystery as testament In TWOIAF. Rhaegar supposedly even believed that he himself was the Prince That Was Promised for a time which means he would have had some inclination that something big was coming in his lifetime.

--> Before we get into the meat of these theories I think it's appropriate to preface things with a discussion about the potential connection between the characters Maester Aemon, Aegon V (Egg), Blood Raven and of course Rhaegar as well as the importance of House Blackwood and their relation to the North, The Warg King, the Children of the Forrest and the powers of the Greenseers.

--> The most obvious connection between these four characters besides their Targ blood is their interest in prophecy. All four are said to have an interest in scholarly pursuits. It is even stated in TWOIAF that Egg was:

"A student of history and lover of books, Aegon V was oft heard to say that had he only had dragons, as the first Aegon had, he could have remade the realm anew, with peace and prosperity and justice for all."

--> BloodRaven is a lot more than just that guy in the tree and his powers were no secret throughout his life. His character is especially unique because he is the first character we know of who posses blood from both Old Valyria and from the Blackwoods of Raventree Hall(who are thought to be decedents of The Children and/or the Warg King). His status as a Greenseer makes him one of the most informed if not the most informed character in the series. It is very likely that BloodRaven is the first person to somehow detect the threat of The Others and the long night via his Greenseer abilities. The fact that he went to the wall with his Ravens Teeth and the Kings brother leads me to suspect that it was all a secretly sanctioned plan and the first move in a grander plan to prepare the realm for the long night.

--> Why would Aemon turn down being Grand Maester and join the watch? Because he was afraid he could be used to usurp Egg? It seems out of character for a strong character like Aemon to have "feared" he would be used. And with regards to BloodRaven why would Aegon sentence his own great uncle and his wife's for that matter to exile when he over and over proved to be the most indispensable servant of House Targaryen? It doesn't add up. The reasons seam petty we're talking about a life of exile in the frozen north.

- “It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?” - Maester Aemon

--> BloodRaven disappeared beyond the wall in 252AC and this is undoubtedly because he discovered that his powers are hugely amplified by merging himself with the Weirwood tree and the presence of many Children throughout the tree surely helps him to develop his power.

--> In a stroke he becomes the most powerful spy master in Westeros. He can tap into vast amounts of crucial information stored in the weirwood net. He spends every waking moment sifting through the memories and every night he dreams inside the tree. He even gains the ability to reanimate dead people like Cold Hands to do his bidding.

--> Being the extremely loyal bird the he is Its not impossible to suggest that BR kept up communication with Aemon and Aegon. The more they learned from the weirwood net the more they realized they needed dragons if they were going to stand a chance when the long night comes.This would have been around the time Aegon commissioned searches around the world and to Asshai to bring back information on Dragons. Of course this all went wrong during the "Tragedy at Summerhall" 259AC. Although Aegon did not succeed at hatching Dragons, Prince Rhaegar, who would later become known as "The Last Dragon", was born amongst the flames.

--> So the idea is this: BloodRaven can communicate telepathically and send visions to people that share his Blackwood/Greenseer blood ie. the Stark children (who are decedents of the Warg King), the Reeds (who are supposedly, like the Blackwoods, tied to the children and/or Warg king) and any of the Targaryens born of Aegon V and Betha Blackwood.

--> So BloodRaven slowly starts visiting Rhaegar in his dreams in early childhood planting questions in his head prompting him and compelling him to read, study and search for answers. This is not unprecedented as he does a similar thing with Bran. This would explain much of Rhaegar's behavior as BR gradually revealed himself to him and the true peril of the realm. As he grows older and develops his skills in sorcery and "the higher mysteries", it's possible that they are able to fully communicate with one another in a way that BR and Aegon never could. Its not impossible to think that given their natural bad-ass talents and their shared bloodlines that they could communicate telepathically. Rhaegar fully becomes BR's pupil in a Jedi/Padawan situation.

- “As a young boy, the Prince of Dragonstone was bookish to a fault. He was reading so early that men said Queen Rhaella must have swallowed some books and a candle whilst he was in her womb. Rhaegar took no interest in the play of other children. The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father’s knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, ‘I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.“ - Barristan

“No one ever looked for a girl,” he said. “It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. - Aemon

--> ^obviously there was significant correspondence between Rhaegar and Aemon.^

---> In regards to his birth in the flames of Summerhall, I just want to put down this idea right now in simple plain terms: The shear Volume of burning Kings Blood and the resulting Blood Magic that may have happened there makes it unlike any other event in ASOIAF. ---> Because baby Rhaegar was born while Egg and his son and the whole Targaryen household of relatives and retainers burned, he was touched by the divine omnipotent power that sometimes rears its head in our story.  He was “charged up” if you will. There is something very magical about his character and his Blood.

From the Wiki:

About

The cause of the fire is as yet unknown, but was connected with King Aegon's desire to restore dragons to the Seven Kingdoms. The last years of his reign were consumed by a search for ancient lore about the dragon breeding of Valyria, and it was said that Aegon commissioned journeys to places as far away as Asshai, with the hopes of finding texts and knowledge that had not been preserved in Westeros.[1]

In 259 AC, Aegon summoned many of those closest to him to Summerhall to celebrate the impending birth of his first great-grandchild to Aerys and Rhaella, the children of Aegon's heir Prince Jaehaerys.[1]

A page from Archmaester Gyldayn's history of House Targaryen hints at the events of the tragedy, but a mishap led to ink blotting out much of the information:

the blood of the dragon gathered in one …
… seven eggs, to honor the seven gods, though the king's own septon had warned …
pyromancers
wild fire
… flames grew out of control … towering … burned so hot that …
… died, but for the valor of the Lord Comman[1]

Many died, and fire destroyed the castle,[2][3] leaving it a ruin.[4] According to Ser Barristan Selmy, sorcery was involved.[5]

Known attendees

Known deaths:

Known survivors

Aftermath

The tragedy that transpired at Summerhall left very few witnesses alive, and those who survived would not speak of it.[1] The death of King Aegon brought Jaehaerys II Targaryen to the throne, but he had to put aside his grief and make immediate plans for the War of the Ninepenny Kings. The young Ser Gerold Hightower became the new Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.[13]

Prince Rhaegar Targaryen, who was born at Summerhall amongst the flames,[2][10] often returned there alone, with not even the Kingsguard for company. He would sleep under the stars in the ruined hall, and would be inspired to compose songs for his harp, about "twilights and tears and the death of kings."[4]

------------> There’s no recorded evidence of what actually happened at Summerhall other than a few small hints but I like to imagine Ser Duncan the Tall in the ultimate act of valor sprinting through the inferno and carrying Rhaella and Rhaegar to safety outside. Somehow, mother and son are protected by the blood magic in a situation similar to Dany surviving the pyre and even though Dunc is badly burned he runs back into the burning palace to try and save Egg. Crying Baby Rhaegar, literally born of smoke and salt.

The Tradgedy at Summerhall is the single most significant event of the present time period in our story. It is the Key Stone that connects The Dunc and Egg plot with the ASOIAF plot and it has some major implications. All we are given is a cryptic account and GRRM has gone out of his way to see that it remains somewhat of a mystery and an afterthought for the readers however the significance of it to this theory and the grand arc of the entire story cannot be ignored.

- "The one thing that can be said for certain is that it was a cataclysm such as the world had never seen. The ancient, mighty Freehold—home to dragons and to sorcerers of unrivaled skill—was shattered and destroyed within hours." - TWOIAF

---> We really know very little about Rhaegar other than that he is a super talented mysterious bad ass warrior-scholar-bard but if he is a sorcerer, he wouldn't be the first or the last Targaryen to possess supernatural powers. Its already in his blood. He was the embodiment of what It meant to be "Blood of the Dragon".

----> Fast-forward to the battle of the Trident 283AC where Robert smashes Rhaegar in the chest with the spike on his hammer. This was for sure NOT Rhaegars plan. Whilst this was a mortal wound, it was not final. We know characters in our story have survived bad deaths like Beric Dondarrion. The Rubies on his breastplate go everywhere but so does his Kings Blood. He is Dead aged 24.

“The battleground is right up ahead, where the river bends. That was where my father killed Rhaegar Targaryen, you know. He smashed in his chest, crunch, right through the armor.”- Joff

- The battle screamed about Lord Robert and Prince Rhaegar both, and by the will of the gods, or by chance—or perhaps by design—they met amidst the shallows of the ford. The two knights fought valiantly upon their destriers, according to all accounts. For despite his crimes, Prince Rhaegar was no coward. Lord Robert was wounded by the dragon prince in the combat, yet in the end, Baratheon’s ferocious strength and his thirst to avenge the shame brought upon his stolen betrothed proved the greater. His warhammer found its mark, and Robert drove the spike through Rhaegar’s chest, scattering the costly rubies that blazed upon the prince’s breastplate. Some men on both sides stopped fighting at once, leaping instead into the river to recover the precious stones. And a general rout quickly began as the royalists started fleeing the field. - TWOIAF

Rubies + Kings Blood + Confusion = Glamour

- “I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her.”“You did,” Ned reminded him. “Only once,” Robert said bitterly. They had come together at the ford of the Trident while the battle crashed around them, Robert with his war-hammer and his great antlered helm, the Targaryen prince armored all in black. On his breastplate was the three-headed dragon of his House, wrought all in rubies that flashed like fire in the sunlight. The waters of the Trident ran red around the hooves of their destriers as they circled and clashed, again and again, until at last a crushing blow from Robert’s hammer stove in the dragon and the chest beneath it. When Ned had finally come on the scene, Rhaegar lay dead in the stream, while men of both armies scrabbled in the swirling waters for rubies knocked free of his armor.

---> Rubies in our story have played a role on several occasions when magic or “a glamour” has been used. At the very least in this case they serve as a large distraction. The last we ever hear of Rhaegar is in this moment of confusion as Ned looked on. No other mention from any POV is given about Rhaegar after this moment other than that he is dead.

---> It’s highly likely that immediately after this moment Rhaegar’s friends and knights could have taken him from the field. The fastest route from the ford would have been right down the trident. In any case Robert is not the sort of man to have mutilated or dishonored his corpse. In the Novels and history there is no mention of what became of his body or that his funeral ever took place. Why would that be? (I am aware GRRM said he was cremated keep reading)

- “The Ruby Ford has not yet been depicted on maps of A Song of Ice and Fire, though it does appear on the "Westeros" map of A World of Ice and Fire.[10] According to George R.R. Martin, the ford is downriver from Lord Harroway's Town.” - wiki (close to the bay near Saltpans)

- “My lady is too kind. All we do is cut and polish the wood. We are blessed here. Where the river meets the bay, the currents and the tides wrestle one against the other, and many strange and wondrous things are pushed toward us, to wash up on our shores. Driftwood is the least of it. We have found silver cups and iron pots, sacks of wool and bolts of silk, rusted helms and shining swords . . . aye, and rubies.” That interested Ser Hyle. “Rhaegar’s rubies?” “It may be. Who can say? The battle was long leagues from here, but the river is tireless and patient. Six have been found. We are all waiting for the seventh.”

 - "When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.” “Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick. “No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust."

- Next you’ll claim you squired for him.”“I make no such claim, ser. Myles Mooton was Prince Rhaegar’s squire, and Richard Lonmouth after him. When they won their spurs, he knighted them himself, and they remained his close companions. Young Lord Connington was dear to the prince as well, but his oldest friend was Arthur Dayne.”

---> So Rhaegar’s body is washed down river possibly with the help of his missing friend ser Richard Lonmouth (Myles Mooton was killed earlier in the war by Robert but Lonmouth is never accounted for after the Ruby Ford) and they are washed right out the mouth of the Trident to the quiet isle (it's right at the mouth of the Trident). The Silent Brothers can see who he is and give him a traditional Targaryen burial AKA a Pyre. (this works alongside the notion that he was cremated like GRRM said in an interview although this is not in the books.) Because of the great power imbued in his blood he is resurrected out of the flames (or he is lamely voodoo chanted back to life like J-Roc in the show)... He learns his whole family is dead, Lyanna is dead, Robert controls everything... stripped of all his power he has only his original purpose left and that is to stop the long night.

- “When I died in the Battle of the Trident. I fought for Prince Rhaegar, though he never knew my name. I could not tell you why, save that the lord I served served a lord who served a lord who had decided to support the dragon rather than the stag. Had he decided elsewise, I might have been on the other side of the river. The battle was a bloody thing. The singers would have us believe it was all Rhaegar and Robert struggling in the stream for a woman both of them claimed to love, but I assure you, other men were fighting too, and I was one. I took an arrow through the thigh and another through the foot, and my horse was killed from under me, yet I fought on. I can still remember how desperate I was to find another horse, for I had no coin to buy one, and without a horse I would no longer be a knight. That was all that I was thinking of, if truth be told. I never saw the blow that felled me. I heard hooves behind my back and thought, a horse! but before I could turn something slammed into my head and knocked me back into the river, where by rights I should have drowned. “Instead I woke here, upon the Quiet Isle. The Elder Brother told me I had washed up on the tide, naked as my name day. I can only think that someone found me in the shallows, stripped me of my armor, boots, and breeches, and pushed me back out into the deeper water. The river did the rest. We are all born naked, so I suppose it was only fitting that I come into my second life the same way. I spent the next ten years in silence.”

--> The theme of a characters dying literally or figuratively and becoming someone else is prevalent throughout the story. The Hound/gravedigger, Cat/Stoneheart, Gregor/Robert Strong...

--> That's two characters in the story that have "died" and been reborn as someone else on the Quiet Isle. (Elder brother, Hound)

------> The description of Prince Rhaegar: “Tall and handsome, having dark indigo eyes and the silver hair of the Targaryen’s, worn long.” - wiki

--> Descriptions of Mance: - "Mance is of middling height, long legged and lean, broad in the chest and shoulders, and sharp-faced with brown eyes and long brown hair gone mostly to gray[1], and laughter lines appeara at the corners of his mouth.[2] He has a sharp face and shrewd brown eyes.[1] He is an unremarkable-looking man in his middle years, with a fondness for music." - wiki

“The King-beyond-the-Wall looked nothing like a king, nor even much a wildling. He was of middling height, slender, sharp-faced, with shrewd brown eyes and long brown hair that had gone mostly to grey. There was no crown on his head, no gold rings on his arms, no jewels at his throat, not even a gleam of silver. He wore wool and leather, and his only garment of note was his ragged black wool cloak, its long tears patched with faded red silk.”

- Jon saw Mance standing tall in his stirrups . His red and black cloak and raven winged helm made him easy to pick out. He had his sword raised and men were rallying to him when a wedge of knights smashed into them with lance and sword and longaxe. Mance’s mare went up on her hind legs, kicking, and a spear took her through the breast. Then the steel tide washed over him.

---> There are a lot of occasions when his red and black cloak is described. He even gives us an entire monologue on the origins of this red and black cloak. George is shoving this cloak in our faces.

- “The spell is made of shadow and suggestion. Men see what they expect to see. The bones are part of that.” Was I wrong to spare this one? “If the glamor fails, they will kill you.” The wildling began to scrape the dirt out from beneath his nails with the point of his dagger. “I’ve sung my songs, fought my battles, drunk summer wine, tasted the Dornishman’s wife. A man should die the way he’s lived. For me that’s steel in hand.” Does he dream of death? Could the enemy have touched him? Death is his domain, the dead his soldiers. “You shall have work for your steel soon enough. The enemy is moving, the true enemy. And Lord Snow’s rangers will return before the day is done, with their blind and bloody eyes.” The wildling’s own eyes narrowed. Grey eyes, brown eyes; Melisandre could see the color change with each pulse of the ruby. “Cutting out the eyes, that’s the Weeper’s work. The best crow’s a blind crow, he likes to say. Sometimes I think he’d like to cut out his own eyes, the way they’re always watering and itching. Snow’s been assuming the free folk would turn to Tormund to lead them, because that’s what he would do. He liked Tormund, and the old fraud liked him too. If it’s the Weeper, though … that’s not good. Not for him, and not for us.” - Melisandre I

- "The tent was hot and smoky. Baskets of burning peat stood in all four comers, filling the air with a dim reddish light. More skins carpeted the ground. Jon felt utterly alone as he stood there in his blacks, awaiting the pleasure of the turncloak who called himself King-beyond-the-Wall. When his eyes had adjusted to the smoky red gloom, he saw six people, none of whom paid him any mind. A dark young man and a pretty blonde woman were sharing a horn of mead. A pregnant woman stood over a brazier cooking a brace of hens, while a grey-haired man in a tattered cloak of black and red sat cross-legged on a pillow, playing a lute and singing: "The Dornishman’s wife was as fair as the sun, and her kisses were warmer than spring. But the Dornishman’s blade was made of black steel, and its kiss was a terrible thing." Jon knew the song, though it was strange to hear it here, in a shaggy hide tent beyond the Wall, ten thousand leagues from the red mountains and warm winds of Dorne.

--> Elia of Dorne was Rhaegar's wife. Pretty random Mance would be singing that song when we first meet him.

--> The descriptions of the two men aren’t all that disproportionate in size. Mance is describe as middling height which is a very vague term. if you are 5foot tall someone who is 6foot is tall. if you are 6foot, someone who is 6foot could be described as middling height. Book Jon is fairly tall himself. Mance could be tall to some, but only middling height from Jon's POV. Its not a long shot either to think Rhaegar could have shrunk a little bit after taking a wound like he did.

---> Again in Plain Terms: Rhaegar’s Magic Kings Blood gives him a natural predisposition to supernatural abilities just like with Bran, Arya, Jon and others. We know there are lots of people in the world with different levels of ability. This is possibly from the dilution of the gene pool over the millennia as the royal seed spread across the land. It appears though that the ability is strongest in the Direct descendants of either the Noble blood of old Valyria or the Kings of Winter and likely some of their vassals as well. Jon is only 14-15 when he first wargs/dreams ghost, Arya is around 11 or something when she changes her face for the first time and Bran is even younger and more powerful. Rhaegar was 24 when he died. Assuming he took control of Dragonstone at 16 he would have had at least 8 years to do anything. From Dragonstone he could pretty much do whatever he wanted unchecked.

-->Yes, Mance's face is different than Rhaegar’s. If this is too much for you then read no further. However, from Arya’s chapters its clear that different people have different levels of face changing abilities:

- “From time to time others would visit the House of Black and White. The fat fellow had fierce black eyes, a hook nose, and a wide mouth full of yellow teeth. The stern face never smiled; his eyes were pale, his lips full and dark. The handsome man had a beard of a different color every time she saw him, and a different nose, but he was never less than comely. Those three came most often, but there were others...”

- “Will you show me how to change my face?”“If you wish.” He cupped her chin in his hand and turned her head. “Puff up your cheeks and stick out your tongue.” Arya puffed up her cheeks and stuck out her tongue. “There. Your face is changed.” “That’s not how I meant. Jaqen used magic.” “All sorcery comes at a cost, child. Years of prayer and sacrifice and study are required to work a proper glamor.” “Years?” she said, dismayed. “If it were easy all men would do it. You must walk before you run. Why use a spell, where mummer’s tricks will serve?” “I don’t know any mummer’s tricks either.” “Then practice making faces. Beneath your skin are muscles. Learn to use them. It is your face. Your cheeks, your lips, your ears. Smiles and scowls should not come upon you like sudden squalls. A smile should be a servant, and come only when you call it. Learn to rule your face.”

--------> Rhaegar was not an average man by all accounts.

- “What was he truly like?” The old man considered a moment. “Able. That above all. Determined, deliberate, dutiful, single-minded.” - Barristan

-----> Mance’s adopts the name Abel the Bard when he visits the south which is very nearly Bael the Bard (who stole the daugher of Winterfell in the old song) Just like how Rhaegar was a bard that stole Lyanna...

- "Half the wildling host had lived all their lives without so much as a glimpse of the Wall, Jon judged, and most of those spoke no word of the Common Tongue. It did not matter. Mance Rayder spoke the Old Tongue, even sang in it, fingering his lute and filling the night with strange wild music. Mance had spent years assembling this vast plodding host, talking to this clan mother and that magnar, winning one village with sweet words and another with a song and a third with the edge of his sword, making peace between Hanna Dogshead and the Lord o’ Bones, between the Hornfoots and the Nightrunners, between the walrus men of the Frozen Shore and the cannibal clans of the great ice rivers, hammering a hundred different daggers into one great spear, aimed at the heart of the Seven Kingdoms. He had no crown nor scepter, no robes of silk and velvet, but it was plain to Jon that Mance Rayder was a king in more than name."

-------> Mance’s decision to desert the watch aligns with Rhaegar’s quest to stop the long night. What better way to search for answers than to embed yourself in the territory and win the support of the locals:

- She kicked savagely at the ice beneath her with a heel, chopping out a chunk. “I’m crying because we never found the Horn of Winter. We opened half a hundred graves and let all those shades loose in the world, and never
found the Horn of Joramun to bring this cold thing down!” - Ygritte

“And Joramun blew the Horn of Winter, and woke giants from the earth”

--> Mance spends his time banding together the Wildlings all the while searching for the horn of Joramun that he believes has the power to wake the giants from the earth AKA some cataclysmic event. He tells the Wildlings the horn is needed to bring down the wall but really it will cause some kind of destructive event he can use against the Others...

- “My birth is as low as a man’s can get, no septon’s ever smeared my head with oils, I don’t own any castles, and my queen wears furs and amber, not silk and sapphires. I am my own champion, my own fool, and my own harpist. You don’t become King- beyond-the-Wall because your father was. The free folk won’t follow a name, and they don’t care which brother was born first. They follow fighters. When I left the Shadow Tower there were five men making noises about how they might be the stuff of kings. Tormund was one, the Magnar another. The other three I slew, when they made it plain they’d sooner fight than follow.” - (Jon X, ASoS)
 

Here is a list of all 25 times when sapphires were mentioned and a secret was being withheld.
 

--> how could a low-born man who "was born of some common woman and fathered by one of your black brothers." - (Queen Selyse) take control of an entire population of savages and in some cases kill their chieftains and earn their respect single handed? how would he ever have the knowledge or experience let alone the motivations to do this thing? One thing that is common knowledge about Rhaegar is that he won the joust at the biggest tourney in the history of Westeros ie. Lord Whent's Tourney at Harenhall 281AC. This clearly makes him one of the most fearsome warriors in the kingdom.

--> Mance's backstory is given to us through several characters: Selyse, Tormund and Qhorin. (please let me know if there are others)

- I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company. Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute gained me easy acceptance.” He laughed. “I know every bawdy song that’s ever been made, north or south of the Wall. So there you are. The night your father feasted Robert, I sat in the back of his hall on a bench with the other freeriders, listening to Orland of Oldtown play the high harp and sing of dead kings beneath the sea. I betook of your lord father’s meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp... and made passing note of Lord Eddard’s children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels.”

--> how could he know all the songs of the south if he was raised on the wall his whole life?

-------------------------> One of the most awesome clues in the series is Dany’s vision in the House of the Undying:

- “Behind was another door, hidden. It was old grey wood, splintery and plain... but it stood to the right of the door through which she’d entered. The wizards were beckoning her with voices sweeter than song. She ran from them, Drogon flying back down to her. Through the narrow door she passed, into a chamber awash in gloom. A long stone table filled this room. Above it floated a human heart, swollen and blue with corruption, yet still alive. It beat, a deep ponderous throb of sound, and each pulse sent out a wash of indigo light. The figures around the table were no more than blue shadows”

---> This vision could represent Rhaegar hidden in the plain looking disguise of Mance Rayder, thought to be long dead, yet still alive and surrounded by cold blue enemies. The long stone table mirrors that of the one in his castle on Dragonstone.

---> This vision can be tied to Jon as well but I think that less likely. Firstly because the "Surround by cold blue enemies" part is too obvious. Secondly because Indigo is more closely related to Rhaegar than Jon who is always compared to the Starks with his grey eyes and dark hair. Thirdly, why would Jon’s metaphorical heart be dying and corrupted? The vision takes place before his death and Jon is young, strong and as yet uncorrupted by the world.

---> Targaryens are said to have indigo, violet or lilac eyes however in all the text both novels and WOIAF Rhaegar is the only character to be directly associated with Indigo. The closest thing we have to another association with indigo is Egg who has "dark purple eyes". This leads me to think that there is some special correlation regarding the magic in the bloodline and the gene of indigo eyes. Perhaps they only show up in a member of House Targaryen who is destined to become the true embodiment of "The Dragon". Both Daenarys and Aerys II have Violet eyes (and Ashara Dayne) and Viserys has lilac.

- "That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper’s rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted. This is how it was meant to be. The other was a nightmare, and I have only now awakened."
---> This could be a literal vision of the future. Could a major battle in the war against the others be fought at the Ruby Ford where Rhaegar had originally lost his kingdom?

------> The other side of the R=M theory is that Qhorin Halfhand is Arthur Dayne.

---> If Arthur is Alive, he was left in the same situation as Rhaegar after the war. Nobody left to guard and all his brothers dead besides Barristan and Jaime. However, Arthur was well known to be Rhaegar’s best friend. If so he would have been close in his confidence and could have been aware of the prophecy and the long night as well.

- Jon knew Qhorin Halfhand the instant he saw him, though they had never met. The big ranger was half a legend in the Watch; a man of slow words and swift action, tall and straight as a spear, long-limbed and solemn. Unlike his men, he was clean-shaven. His hair fell from beneath his helm in a heavy braid touched with hoarfrost, and the blacks he wore were so faded they might have been greys. Only thumb and forefinger remained on the hand that held the reins; the other fingers had been sheared off catching a wildling’s axe that would otherwise have split his skull. It was told that he had thrust his maimed fist into the face of the axeman so the blood spurted into his eyes, and slew him while he was blind. Since that day, the wildlings beyond the Wall had known no foe more implacable.

-----> Sure sounds like a puissant knight of the Kings Gaurd to me.

- "Dawn and Qhorin Halfhand arrived together."

- "Dawn had broken when Jon stepped from the tent beside Qhorin Halfhand."

- "They could see the fire in the night, glimmering against the side of the mountain like a fallen star."

- "I learned from Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, who could have slain all five of you with his left hand while he was taking a piss with the right." - Jaime

- "The Halfhand could have killed me as easy as you swat a bug." - Jon

When Jon and Qhorin first meet:

-The ranger gave his horse into the care of one of his men and followed. “You are Jon Snow. You have your father’s look.” (Jon V, ACoK)

- “As shy as a maid on her wedding night,” the big ranger said in a soft voice,“and near as fair. Sometimes a man forgets how pretty a fire can be.” He was not a man you’d expect to speak of maids and wedding nights. So far as Jon knew, Qhorin had spent his whole life in the Watch. Did he ever love a maid or have a wedding? He could not ask.

-----> Qhorin is described as having grey hair and eyes. There are no descriptions of Arthur's hair or eyes in the story at all. However we know that Edric Dayne has blue eyes and Gerold Dayne has silver streaked with black both of which could turn grey with age.

---> Qhorin was renowned for going on extremely long and distant rangings during which he could have been up to anything. It’s likely that not only was he aiding the watch but communicating with Mance and trying to gather information about The Others.

- "Shadows are friends to men in black," he said. Jon saw the sense of that. It would be pleasant to ride in the light for a time, to let the bright mountain sun soak through their cloaks and chase the chill from their bones, but they dared not. Where there were three watchers there might be others, waiting to sound the alarm. Stonesnake curled up under his ragged fur cloak and was asleep almost at once. Jon shared his salt beef with Ghost while Ebben and Squire Dalbridge fed the horses. Qhorin Halfhand sat with his back to a rock, honing the edge of his longsword with long slow strokes. Jon watched the ranger for a few moments, then summoned his courage and went to him. "My lord," he said, "you never asked me how it went. With the girl." "I am no lord, Jon Snow." Qhorin slid the stone smoothly along the steel with his two-fingered hand. "She told me Mance would take me, if I ran with her." "She told you true." "She even claimed we were kin. She told me a story . . . " " . . . of Bael the Bard and the rose of Winterfell. So Stonesnake told me. It happens I know the song. Mance would sing it of old, when he came back from a ranging. He had a passion for wildling music. Aye, and for their women as well." "You knew him?" "We all knew him." His voice was sad. They were friends as well as brothers, Jon realized, and now they are sworn foes. "Why did he desert?" "For a wench, some say. For a crown, others would have it." Qhorin tested the edge of his sword with the ball of his thumb. "He liked women, Mance did, and he was not a man whose knees bent easily, that's true. But it was more than that. He loved the wild better than the Wall. It was in his blood. He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. When he left the Shadow Tower he was only going home again." "Was he a good ranger?" "He was the best of us," said the Halfhand, "and the worst as well. Only fools like Thoren Smallwood despise the wildlings. They are as brave as we are, Jon. As strong, as quick, as clever. But they have no discipline. They name themselves the free folk, and each one thinks himself as good as a king and wiser than a maester. Mance was the same. He never learned how to obey." "No more than me," said Jon quietly.

- “Our knees do not bend easily,” said Ser Arthur Dayne.

- "Even when Ghost's teeth closed savagely around the ranger's calf, somehow Qhorin kept his feet. But in that instant, as he twisted, the opening was there. Jon planted and pivoted. The ranger was leaning away, and for an instant it seemed that Jon's slash had not touched him. Then a string of red tears appeared across the big man's throat, bright as a ruby necklace, and the blood gushed out of him, and Qhorin Halfhand fell. He knew, he thought numbly. He knew what they would ask of me."

----> Perhaps this was always Ser Arthur’s purpose. To die defending the Targaryen prince Jon Snow, as he was first thought to have done at the Tower of Joy. At least he died with steel in his hand, serving and protecting his king’s son. (and again the ruby reference)

--> It’s most likely that Arthur/Qhorin lost his 3 fingers to a wildling axe like we are told but its also possible that he lost them fighting Ned and Howland at the Tower of Joy. In any case he survives and gives Ned his sword Dawn to return to Starfall so he can fake his own death and Join the watch as Qhorin. As Rhaegar’s best friend it makes sense that he would want to continue the fight in the North knowing there was nothing left for him in the south.

----> The Tower of Joy is a widely known to readers so its easy to feel certain about the things that transpired there but NED is the only one we have contact who was there. The only glimpse we have is during his fever dream. In truth his dream is vague and leaves us with more questions than answers.

- “I was with her when she died,” Ned reminded the king. “She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father.” He could hear her still at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister’s eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black. After that he remembered nothing. They had found him still holding her body, silent with grief. The little crannogman, Howland Reed, had taken her hand from his. Ned could recall none of it. “I bring her flowers when I can,” he said. “Lyanna was . . . fond of flowers.”

--->WHO IS THEY? wasn't Howland Reed the only other survivor? Arthur Dayne could have been a third.

- “Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed. He did not think it omened well that he should dream that dream again after so many years.”

- “I buried him myself. I can tell you where his grave lies, if you wish. I covered him with stones to keep the carrion eaters from digging up his flesh, and set his helm atop the cairn to mark his final resting place.

---> ^Here the Elder Brother blatantly lies about burying the hound in a cairn (unless you believe The Hound is actually dead)^

--> Read at face value you would logically conclude that Arthur is dead and buried. However, in keeping with our theme of characters “dying” and becoming someone else afterward you could also make the argument that Ned and Howland both agreed to fake Arthurs death. This would explain why they buried the fallen at the tower instead of returning all of their bones to their rightful resting places. Ser Arthur Dayne and everything he stood for had “figuratively” died and Qhorin, who was not part of the battle of 7v3, lived on.


The last part of this theory is that Jon and Dany are Rhaegar and Lyanna’s twins.

 --> Lyanna has Rhaegar’s fraternal twins: a boy and a girl named Daenarys and Jon at the Tower of Joy. She dies.

--> Ned can claim Jon as his bastard (because he looks like a Stark) but he knows Dany would never be safe with him because of her silver hair and purple eyes.

--> Ned takes Dany to Starfall after the TOJ

--> He knows the safest place in Westeros for Dany is with Ashara Dayne because Ashara has deep purple eyes like Dany

--> He also knows Ashara is pregnant with Brandon's child and is nursing

--> the wet nurse Wylla in Ned's cover story reminds him of Ashara. (Ned had his heart broken by Ashara [Lost loves are another massive recurrence in GRRM writing])

--> Wylla probably was/is a real wet nurse at starfall who nursed Jon there while Ashara nursed Dany. This would make Edric Dayne’s comments about them being milk brothers true.

--> Coincidentally, Dayne can be spelled from Daenarys and the remaining letters are found in Ashara

--> Ashara becomes Dany's wet nurse but also her pseudo-mother for a time while she is a baby

- Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara’s smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara’s daughter ...But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well.

--> like her brother, Ashara fakes her own death. She has good cause and nobody is suspicious afterwards (dead lover[Brandon], dead brother[Arthur], Her and Brandon’s possibly dead stillborn baby? It also makes sense that she would want to go into hiding to protect Dany (also Brandon's niece) after she miscarried his baby and he died.

• Just as a fun aside i would like to quickly discuss the possibility that Podrick Payne might actually be Brandon and Ashara's Bastard. Let me start by saying that Payne is only one letter away from Dayne... Secondly he seems to know a lot of Dornish heraldry if you remember the scene when Tyrion is greeting the Martells. However when asked about his own house...
- “Are purple, gold, and white the colors of House Payne, Podrick?” she asked him politely. “No. I mean, yes.” He blushed. “The colors. Our arms are purple and white chequy, my lady. With gold coins. In the checks. Purple and white. Both.” He studied her feet
• He obviously stumbles there. Furthermore, I would like to draw the similarity between the Story of Dunc and Egg and Brienne and Pod. They meet each other in almost exactly the same way. Egg turns out to be a few years older than he looks - and as we know well he is not who he first appears to be at all. The same could be true of Podrick. Described as 11 or 12 by Brienne, he could easily look younger than his years and be hiding some secret about his true identity. Conveniently, all the people that could back Pod's life story are dead and the only Payne around is a mute. food for thought when you are re-reading.
- “Who are you?” she demanded. The boy’s mouth worked soundlessly. His eyes were big as eggs.

--> So it is decided that Ashara will take Dany into hiding. This is where it becomes impossible to say where and when things happened and is entirely speculation. It's possible she takes Dany first to the Martell's in Dorne but soon on to Lys under Dornish protection. This is because Lys is full of people with old Valyrian blood that look like they do (silver hair, purple eyes) so its easy for them to blend into the population. On Dragonstone Rhaella dies giving birth. Darry announces that he is sailing for Braavos and goes in the opposite direction to Dorne with Viscerys and Rhaella's sickly babe. This is around the time that future marriage alliance plans between Arianne and Viscerys are made. After everything is arranged Darry takes the Targaryen children to the house with the red door on the tropical island paradise/lemon tree land Lys. At some point not long after these events Dany is swapped in for Rhaella's last child who simply died. It's likely that as Viscerys grew older it became too risky to harbor the Targaryan children under Dornish protection without risking discovery so they were put out and forced to live a life on the run.

- “ Is it true he tried to raise Dorne  for Viserys?” “ No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Sunspear to return Prince Lewyn’s bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war. But Robert never went to Dorne thereafter, and Prince Oberyn seldom left it.”

--> There are several different plausible scenario's involving Dany and Ashara's movements during their flight from Westeros. It's unknown who was directly involved and at what point she is swapped for Rhaella's child but it all points to them ending up in Dorne or Lys at the house with the red door.

--> It's possible Viscerys knows that Dany is Rhaegar's but its just as likely he is fooled by his handlers. He was only 7 while this was happening.

- Home? The word made her feel sad. Ser Jorah had his Bear Island, but what was home to her? A few tales, names recited as solemnly as the words of a prayer, the fading memory of a red door...

- The floating heart pulsed from dimness to darkness. It was hard to summon the will to speak, to recall the words she had practiced so assiduously.I am Daenerys Stormborn of House Targaryen, Queen of the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros.

--> Why was she solemnly reciting names? Why practicing words assiduously? Is she being taught to remember a new identity?

--> When she is done nursing Dany, Ashara bounces out to Asshai and becomes Quathe, sends Dany dreams and visions, watches over her from afar, daughter she never had... (just like Mance is watching over Jon from afar by visiting Winterfell as the bard Abel and probably visiting Lyanna’s Tomb)

- Quaithe?” Dany called. “Where are you, Quaithe?” Then she saw. Her mask is made of starlight.Remember who you are, Daenerys,” the stars whispered in a woman’s voice. “The dragons know. Do you?”

--> Again, Ashara and Dany are the only characters in the present times with Violet eyes.

--> I realize that George did an interview in 1999 stating that Dany was 8-9 months younger than Jon but let me remind you NON BOOK MATERIAL IS SIMPLY NOT CANON. All the information on Dany we are given in the books is from Dany's perspective or one of the other POV characters close to her. As far as she knows, she is 13 in AGOT. George could be giving us information based on the POV information we have in the books.... he is very clever like that.

Here is the interview:
http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040

--> The feeling I get from this interview is that the questioner is prying in a place George does not want to go especially when asking about the timeline of Jon’s birth in the first line... right away his guard is up. Again, you can take his word literally and automatically R+L=J+D is impossible. However, it is equally as likely that two such pivotal events in the story such as Jon and Dany’s births would be very well thought out in relation to each other. If R+L=J+D is true, it would make it one of his most closely guarded secrets; A question he would surely have been ready to address with a deflection. He seems to do this here by going off about how difficult it is to keep the dates straight but then gives us a very specific estimate of 8-9 months. Believe what you will people.

(I am not going to recite the large pile of evidence for R+L=J. I am only putting forward the clues from Ned's chapters in AGOT that hint at R+L=J+D.)

--> Immediately after his fight with Robert and the small council over the murder of Daenarys, Ned is getting ready to leave Kings Landing but he is distracted by Littlefinger and the mystery of Jon Arryn's murder.

- "He was angry now, but once Ned was safely out of sight, his rage would cool as it always did. Always? Suddenly, uncomfortably, he found himself recalling Rhaegar Targaryen. Fifteen years dead, yet Robert hates him as much as ever. It was a disturbing notion . . ."

^here Ned seems to think that there's still a chance Robert might cool off^

---> his thoughts while inspecting Roberts bastard daughter at the brothel:

- "He thought of the promises he’d made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he’d paid to keep them." (Note "Promises", plural)

---> Then Ned gets his leg broke by Jaime's posse and passes out. Now why would he all of a sudden dream "an old dream" about the Tower of Joy? What triggered this old Dream? You could say it was Roberts daughter reminding him of Jon but given that the big emotional argument about killing Daenarys and all the Rhaegar hating that just happened it's reasonable to say that it could be the main cause.

- “Serve the boar at my funeral feast,” Robert rasped. “Apple in its mouth, skin seared crisp. Eat the bastard. Don’t care if you choke on him. Promise me, Ned.” “I promise.”Promise me, Ned, Lyanna’s voice echoed. “The girl,” the king said. “Daenerys. Let her live. If you can, if it . . . not too late . . . talk to them . . . Varys, Littlefinger . . . don’t let them kill her. And help my son, Ned. Make him be . . . better than me.” He winced. “Gods have mercy.” “They will, my friend,” Ned said. “They will.”

----> Obviously Lyanna is still on his mind for some reason. Then Dany is mentioned literally right after the promise is. Sounds like a wink from the author to me.

- "Robert had a change of heart concerning Daenarys Targaryen. Whatever arrangements you made, I want unmade. At once.” “Alas,” said Varys. “At once may be too late. I fear those birds have flown."

^this is right before he confronts Cersei in the throne room.^

- “When he slept, he dreamed: dark disturbing dreams of blood and broken promises. When he woke, there was nothing to do but think, and his waking thoughts were worse than nightmares.”

----> The next time we see Ned he's in the black cells dreaming of broken promises. But why broken promises now? Jon is safely at the wall and he raised Jon in his own household as one of his children. Broken Promise to tell Jon about his true parentage? Broken Promises to Cat? Ned doesn't even know what his fate is yet. But something is hurting him enough to give him nightmares of blood and broken promises and its not the fact he didn't eat the boar.

---> It has to be the thought of Daenarys that brings back all these nearly forgotten feelings about broken promises and blood and the tower of Joy. Ned is a prisoner and just found out the assassination can't be stopped.

Jon and Dany being twins IMHO ties together the whole story a lot better. It would make them the children of the union between Fire and Ice (R+L), separated at birth, sent to the opposite sides of the world, one battling fire and the other ice. It makes for a much more poetic sequence and fits the narrative better than if Dany was the daughter of the mad king. We are told over and over that Targaryen's wed brother and sister to keep the bloodlines pure. If Dany and Jon do fall in love, wouldn't it be far more fitting that they are actually brother and sister not aunt and nephew...?

 

                                          -->Fast forward to Winds Of Wwinter, Dream Of Spring

--> Jon is resurrected and reborn

--> Tommen and Myrcella finally die somehow

--> Dany or the golden company or both have Kings landing surrounded

--> Cersei fully descends into madness and pulls a mad queen, Left Hand Jaime is unable to stop her in time from lighting the wildfire caches like he did with Aerys.

--> Jaime fulfills the Valonqar prophecy and strangles Cersei in spite or just to spare her from the flames as kings landing is entirely engulfed

--> Jaime is reborn: the only one in the city left alive and un-burnt. Maybe he even gets a new magic sword hand. Precedence for this is when Moqorro heals Victarions hand making it imbued with magic and more powerful than before.

(There is actually quite alot of evidence that Jaime and Cersei are The Mad Kings bastards. Firstly, Tywin and the Aery's were BFF until right before J+C were born when they had a big falling out (when a woman comes between 2 friends there is only one outcome). Joanna was also dismissed from the queens service right at this time. Aery's made jokes about taking his royal liberties with Joanna right in front of the whole court (Barriston remembers this). The twincest, Cersei being mad, Jeoffrey being mad, Cersei's obsession with wildfire, Cersei getting aroused by the burning of the Hands tower, Jaime's dream about his mother, His conversation with his aunt Genna, heck even Oathkeeper was described as having red and black ripples that the smith couldn't get out. It would be fitting that Tywin's only true son was Tyrion.)

--> As for Rhaegar/Mance he was literally Born in a fire at summerhall.

The seed is strong."

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I have to say, I started reading this with the intention of declaring it all far-fetched and a weaker version of the story.  But you've backed up your major points really well, and I agree that it pulls some story elements together better than before.  Well done!

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Let me echo Frosty's comment that I thought I was going to read another bizarre, unsupportable list of theories...and was pleasantly surprised. 

That said, I am not very much of ASoIaF 'scholar' but the entire 'Tower of Joy' fight never sounded right to me.  IIRC, the 'official' story is that Ned and his six companions had a fight to the death against three kingsguard.  Ned and Howland are the only survivors, who rush into the tower to find Lyanna dying.  Lyanna gets some sort of promise from Ned before she dies.  Ned and Howland tear down the tower and use the stone to build cairns.  Ned returns Arthur's sword to Ashara, William Dustin's horse back to Barbrey, (which leaves Barbrey angry with him for the rest of his life) and Lyanna's body back to Winterfell.  Also, if fanon is to be believed, simply add the presence of one or more children, which Lyanna dies in birthing.  I know that these have been hashed over repeatedly, but I have always wondered:

#1.  Why was there a fight in the first place?  All parties seemed to be honorable men, and they had no particular animosity towards each other...only the larger conflict that put them on opposite sides.  If Lyanna was dying with no child(ren), why not let Ned comfort her in her final hours?  If Lyanna was in childbirth, how does ten men fighting outside, with nobody to tend to her, help her in any way?

#2.  Assuming Lyanna died in childbirth, why take the time needed for two men to tear down the tower and build the cairns?  What did the kid(s) eat during this project?

#3.  The bodies; I can understand Ned only taking Lyanna's body, at least initially.  Even if you leave the three kingsguard at the tower, eight bodies is an awful lot of carrion to be...well...carrying, for two men.  However, why didn't anyone return, later, to recover the bodies?  The north in particular seems to have a tradition and expectation that the bones of fallen nobles be brought back to their home.  Barbrey claims to be furious with Ned for leaving William's body in Dorne.  At the beginning of AGoT, over ten years have passed.  It seems to me that Ned could have easily worked with both King Robert and Prince Doran to arrange a small party of workmen to exhume the bodies and return them to their families.

While I personally don't care for still more "dead men actually alive, living under an assumed identity" characters, Arthur Dayne=Quorin helps explain a little bit of the Tower of Joy issues that bother me.  First, maybe Howland saved Ned's life by talking sense into both Arthur and Ned.  Secondly, if Arthur is alive, he could have stayed behind to build the cairns while Ned made a flying trip to find proper care for the newborn(s).  Third, if one or more of the cairns have no occupants, it would explain why Ned made no effort to exhume bodies.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

Really appreciate the comments. I honestly never stop reading the books and from time to time I notice small tidbits to support my theories that I didn't on previous reads. I've made a few small edits that further support my ideas. cheers.

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  • 4 weeks later...

There's an interesting thing about rubies that could tie to Rhaegar being resurrected in some way.  In at least two stories written by GRRM set in the Thousand Worlds (one of which was Nightflyers, I can't remember the other(s)), red gems have the ability to store the image of the mind of a deceased person, in effect their soul.  In Nightflyers, the mind within the gem has strong psionic powers.  Perhaps Rhaegar was aware of this and had such gems embedded in his armor so he could escape death should his body be killed.

 

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I still haven't had enough time to read the OP thoroughly, so I might have been skipped where he deals with it but... isn't Mance acknowledgedly raised by the NW? Maybe the author is implying that Rhaegar stole Mance's identity, not that he is Mance.

BTW, I'm quite new to the forums and I'm already tired of hidden Targaryens everywhere :huh: 

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I happen to be a huge believer in M=R and that Quorin Halfhand is Arthur Dayne. I've read the books twice and didn't even pick up the dawn references in Jon's POVs.

 

Just to add to your evidence (which is quite impressive), we all now Melisandre uses glamours via rubies, and one of those Rubies happens to be in Stannis' sword. 

Barristan said that Rheagar was unhittable in the ToHH. Rheagar wore the same armor in the battle of the Trident that he wore in that tourney. He could of used glamours to cheat and win (don't get me wrong, I believe that he could of won without cheating, just something to keep in mind).

 

In Neds ToJ dream, he mentions that there are shadows as swords in the Kingsguards hands. Quorin is from the Shadow Tower and mentions shadows multiple times with Jon in the Frostfangs.

 

Just to add, there are a few people that could legitimize Mance as Rheagar, one of them being Lem Lemoncloak (given that he really is Richard Lonmouth). Which would help Rheagar's cause given that they will have the BwoB on their side.

 

Once again, good post!

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Well done. Still false, mind you, but well done nevertheless.

Mance Rayder has a history. He was raised from a child by the Watch. He didn't appear out of thin air just after the Battle of the Trident.

Nobody in the story elaborates on the further fate of Rhaegar's remains? Maybe because there was nothing remarkable about that. Nothing remarkable such as "his body and armor mysteriously disappeared from the battlefield, nobody knows anything about it". By the way, did they talked much about what happened to Aerys' body after his death? I don't recall. Probably because there was nothing to say - he died, his remains were disposed of the customary way, end of story.

As for "how a dude not being Rhaegar Targaryen could become King Beyond the Wall?", well, that's just something that happen every now and then, from Joramun to Raymun Redbeard.

If Qhorin is Arthur, and Mance is Rhaegar, then Qhorin's sacrifice seems completely daft and pointless.

Same for Dany: first, pretending she's Rhaegar's sister, instead of his daughter, does very little for shielding her from Robert Baratheon's wrath. And second, such things as royal births are public events, so more or less everybody on Dragonstone knew who birthed whom when - and there's no such thing as "couple hundred of people successfully keeping a secret for fifteen years".

If GRRM doesn't want to reveal a bit of information, he simply refuses to comment ("keep reading", "that's actually an interesting question - next one, please", or compatible). I see no reason not to take his "probably closer to 9 months" answer at the face value.

The whole "twins with multiple baby swaps" thing comes, I reckon, from the belief that "R+L=J" is too simple to be true - but that's only the result of George taking twenty bloody years (and counting) to wrap up the series.

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5 hours ago, Banana Beyond the Wall said:

In Neds ToJ dream, he mentions that there are shadows as swords in the Kingsguards hands. Quorin is from the Shadow Tower and mentions shadows multiple times with Jon in the Frostfangs.

 

Just to add, there are a few people that could legitimize Mance as Rheagar, one of them being Lem Lemoncloak (given that he really is Richard Lonmouth). Which would help Rheagar's cause given that they will have the BwoB on their side.

 

Once again, good post!

nice! I never noticed the sword/shadows before. awesome.

I agree I think its highly likely that LL is RL. I also like to think that the hollow tree/cave of the BwoB is underneath Raventree, Bryndon River's/Bloodraven's mothers home. This would make sense If the Brotherhood really are Targaryen loyalists.

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2 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Well done. Still false, mind you, but well done nevertheless.

Mance Rayder has a history. He was raised from a child by the Watch. He didn't appear out of thin air just after the Battle of the Trident.

Nobody in the story elaborates on the further fate of Rhaegar's remains? Maybe because there was nothing remarkable about that. Nothing remarkable such as "his body and armor mysteriously disappeared from the battlefield, nobody knows anything about it". By the way, did they talked much about what happened to Aerys' body after his death? I don't recall. Probably because there was nothing to say - he died, his remains were disposed of the customary way, end of story.

As for "how a dude not being Rhaegar Targaryen could become King Beyond the Wall?", well, that's just something that happen every now and then, from Joramun to Raymun Redbeard.

If Qhorin is Arthur, and Mance is Rhaegar, then Qhorin's sacrifice seems completely daft and pointless.

Same for Dany: first, pretending she's Rhaegar's sister, instead of his daughter, does very little for shielding her from Robert Baratheon's wrath. And second, such things as royal births are public events, so more or less everybody on Dragonstone knew who birthed whom when - and there's no such thing as "couple hundred of people successfully keeping a secret for fifteen years".

If GRRM doesn't want to reveal a bit of information, he simply refuses to comment ("keep reading", "that's actually an interesting question - next one, please", or compatible). I see no reason not to take his "probably closer to 9 months" answer at the face value.

The whole "twins with multiple baby swaps" thing comes, I reckon, from the belief that "R+L=J" is too simple to be true - but that's only the result of George taking twenty bloody years (and counting) to wrap up the series.

I agree Ser, It's all much to ambiguous for me to be certain if any of it is true or false but the clues are there nonetheless.

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On 2016-05-14 at 2:25 AM, Ebrose said:

I still haven't had enough time to read the OP thoroughly, so I might have been skipped where he deals with it but... isn't Mance acknowledgedly raised by the NW? Maybe the author is implying that Rhaegar stole Mance's identity, not that he is Mance.

BTW, I'm quite new to the forums and I'm already tired of hidden Targaryens everywhere :huh: 

Thanks for bringing this to my attention! yes he is acknowledged by Selyse, Tormund and i think Qhorin (If there's more let me know). I honestly like the idea of him stealing Mance's identity more, your right it makes more sense than him just appearing after the trident.

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I've never been totally sure about Mance=Rhaegar, just because it just seemed too ridiculous but you and a few other fans have made brilliant arguments and picked up on points I never would have. 

I do believe Arthur Dayne is alive, just not sure who he is. When Howland Reed saves Ned I don't think it's by killing Arthur like in the show. 

I do believe Jon and Dany are brother and sister and you have made brilliant points for this. 

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On 2016-04-03 at 7:41 PM, Wheels said:

- “I would sooner take off Mance’s head myself. He was a man of the Night’s Watch, once. By rights, his life belongs to us.” “Pyp says that Lady Melisandre means to give him to the flames, to work some sorcery.” “Pyp should learn to hold his tongue. I have heard the same from others. King’s blood, to wake a dragon. Where Melisandre thinks to find a sleeping dragon, no one is quite sure. It’s nonsense. Mance’s blood is no more royal than mine own. He has never worn a crown nor sat a throne. He’s a brigand, nothing more. There’s no power in brigand’s blood.” The raven looked up from the floor. “Blood,” it screamed. Jon paid no mind.

 

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On 4/7/2016 at 6:44 PM, norwaywolf123 said:

Why do so many belive A+J

The Winds of Winter is taking too long to finish, people need something, lol. However, I do think there is a small outside chance of A+J= Jaime and Cersei, because there is some evidence to support it. I would go ahead and just put it at a ..... 20% chance, but still a chance. However, the Tyrion theory.....just no. The evidence is far too thin, and its just a fanboy/fangirl theory. 99% chance that Tywin is Tyrion's father....sorry fangirls/fanboys. 

On 5/15/2016 at 3:55 AM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Well done. Still false, mind you, but well done nevertheless.

Mance Rayder has a history. He was raised from a child by the Watch. He didn't appear out of thin air just after the Battle of the Trident.

The whole "twins with multiple baby swaps" thing comes, I reckon, from the belief that "R+L=J" is too simple to be true - but that's only the result of George taking twenty bloody years (and counting) to wrap up the series.

I agree, Wheels did her/his homework, however I just don't think its true. As you said, Mance has a history and it is taking too long to finish the story, and people need theories, some new ASOIAF related thing to help them get their fix. Although some theories are fun and have a chance at being true, the only major theory I think has more than a 50% chance of being true is R+L=J (there is actually a lot of evidence for it, and .... it just makes sense). 

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