Why are the Peakes still around?

[PrinceHenryris]

They lost two castles after supporting Daemon Blackfyre in the first Blackfyre Rebellion.  Then Gormon Peake goes and supports Daemon II's bid for the throne and loses his head.

After all that, the Peakes rebel against the throne and Maekar loses his life in the fighting.

According to the World Book, Aegon stopped Roger Reyne from slaughtering even more Peakes and that's all well and good, but shouldn't the Peakes have, at least, lost their lands, titles and castle?

[Emie]

Perhaps some of the remaining Peakes supported the Targaryen's instead, and the Targs at least gave mercy to them and allowed those loyal to stay? 

[Lord Varys]

One assumes that Aerys I didn't punish Gormon Peakes brother/nephew/cousin/whoever succeeded to Starpike after him if it was clear that that person had nothing to do with the plot.

One also assumes that Peake's own children were among the hostages the Iron Throne took who later died in the spring.

We have no idea yet what led to the Peake Uprising, but one assumes that this lead to a major bloodletting in the house. But Aegon V most likely took pity on any surviving Peake children. To make amends for the unlawful slaughter of prisoners of war committed by the Red Lion Lord Gerold Lannister might have later agreed to marry his cousin/niece Margot to young Titus Peake. The boy could have been raised at Casterly Rock as a hostage-ward until it was time for him to marry.

We don't know whether the boy was already alive in 233 AC, but since we don't know how old he is it is certainly a possibility. Titus and Margot certainly could be pretty old people.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Perhaps so the final Blackfyre claimant will have some support in the second Dance of the Dragons.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Perhaps so the final Blackfyre claimant will have some support in the second Dance of the Dragons.

Actually, I think ol' Titus will be in a heap of trouble when Laswell comes to kick his ass. 

[Lion of the West]

10 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Actually, I think ol' Titus will be in a heap of trouble when Laswell comes to kick his ass. 

 I think so too. Its rather obvious that the Golden Company are filled with people with claims to press in Westeros.

[Canon Claude]

24 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

 I think so too. Its rather obvious that the Golden Company are filled with people with claims to press in Westeros.

 

 

[Scorpion92]

Yeah, in fact, we have three Peakes in Golden Company, and one wonders whether these three will receive three castles like depicted on their banners courtesy of Aegon and Jon Connington.

[Lord Varys]

18 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Actually, I think ol' Titus will be in a heap of trouble when Laswell comes to kick his ass. 

 

17 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

 I think so too. Its rather obvious that the Golden Company are filled with people with claims to press in Westeros.

There is certainly truth to this, but one really wonders who the hell but Lord Titus could Laswell Peake mean when he talks about the friends in the Reach some of them have. I mean, he, personally, might have kept close ties with the Peake branch back home, and he might actually not be descended from the lordly branch of House Peake but, say, from a younger brother of Lord Gormon who went into exile with Bittersteel and later helped to build the Golden Company.

The idea that a man like Laswell is closely connected to an actual Lord of the Reach who isn't named Peake doesn't make a lot of sense to me, actually. The only other lordly house of the Reach I can think of that might actually be friends with the Golden Company is House Merryweather, due to Orton's exile. He could have served alongside the other officers of the Golden Company before he was allowed to return.

But a century is a long time and the idea that any Oakhearts, Tarlys, Fossoways, Rowans, Cranes, etc. actually associate themselves with common sellswords who have long lost whatever noble status they once had doesn't make much sense to me. A lord can be friends with a hedge knight and a commoner in a certain way, but he is not going to marry the daughter of such a man, nor is he allowing such a 'friend' to dictate his policies.

Mathis Rowan and others in the Reach might be still Targaryen loyalists and thus willing to join Aegon. But they won't do so because they are 'friends' with the Golden Company.

And I also find the idea that Laswell specifically wants to claim Starpike for himself a rather odd notion. The man isn't Jon Connington. He did not lose his lordly seat and then reclaimed it. He is (presumably) just descended from some Peakes who once went into exile with Bittersteel.

The Golden Company intends to seat the true king in the Iron Throne. And once Aegon VI is crowned and anointed he would have to be a very grateful king. The line of the usurper will be extinguished, and Storm's End is going to a new lord, a lord of Aegon's making. There will be quite a few prices to give, in the Stormlands (the Carons - and possibly the Dondarrions, too - seem to be extinct), in the Crownlands Rosby, Stokeworth, and Hayford could get new lords of Aegon's making, and in the Riverlands the Darrys are extinct, and with the Whents gone (and Litlefinger not yet a friend of Aegon's) Harrenhal would be a very ripe price. The Twins will also need a new lord soon, just as Riverrun might.

Once the Shields are retaken new lords might have to be made there (if Euron extinguished all the lines) and there might other minor seats in the Crownlands and Riverlands that could need lords, too.

Aegon has no need to antagonize the Peakes by allowing Laswell to attack/claim Lord Titus' seat from himself (assuming the man is actually the Lord of Starpike). If Titus turns out to oppose Aegon and the Golden Company things might be different, of course. Then they could crush him. But right now Aegon has to tread very carefully not to antagonize the Reach against him. And having some filthy sellsword with golden arm rings claiming he is a Peake and the Lord of Starpike is not likely to convince Titus' peers in the Reach that they can trust or work with these guys.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

 

There is certainly truth to this, but one really wonders who the hell but Lord Titus could Laswell Peake mean when he talks about the friends in the Reach some of them have. I mean, he, personally, might have kept close ties with the Peake branch back home, and he might actually not be descended from the lordly branch of House Peake but, say, from a younger brother of Lord Gormon who went into exile with Bittersteel and later helped to build the Golden Company.

The idea that a man like Laswell is closely connected to an actual Lord of the Reach who isn't named Peake doesn't make a lot of sense to me, actually. The only other lordly house of the Reach I can think of that might actually be friends with the Golden Company is House Merryweather, due to Orton's exile. He could have served alongside the other officers of the Golden Company before he was allowed to return.

But a century is a long time and the idea that any Oakhearts, Tarlys, Fossoways, Rowans, Cranes, etc. actually associate themselves with common sellswords who have long lost whatever noble status they once had doesn't make much sense to me. A lord can be friends with a hedge knight and a commoner in a certain way, but he is not going to marry the daughter of such a man, nor is he allowing such a 'friend' to dictate his policies.

Mathis Rowan and others in the Reach might be still Targaryen loyalists and thus willing to join Aegon. But they won't do so because they are 'friends' with the Golden Company.

And I also find the idea that Laswell specifically wants to claim Starpike for himself a rather odd notion. The man isn't Jon Connington. He did not lose his lordly seat and then reclaimed it. He is (presumably) just descended from some Peakes who once went into exile with Bittersteel.

The Golden Company intends to seat the true king in the Iron Throne. And once Aegon VI is crowned and anointed he would have to be a very grateful king. The line of the usurper will be extinguished, and Storm's End is going to a new lord, a lord of Aegon's making. There will be quite a few prices to give, in the Stormlands (the Carons - and possibly the Dondarrions, too - seem to be extinct), in the Crownlands Rosby, Stokeworth, and Hayford could get new lords of Aegon's making, and in the Riverlands the Darrys are extinct, and with the Whents gone (and Litlefinger not yet a friend of Aegon's) Harrenhal would be a very ripe price. The Twins will also need a new lord soon, just as Riverrun might.

Once the Shields are retaken new lords might have to be made there (if Euron extinguished all the lines) and there might other minor seats in the Crownlands and Riverlands that could need lords, too.

Aegon has no need to antagonize the Peakes by allowing Laswell to attack/claim Lord Titus' seat from himself (assuming the man is actually the Lord of Starpike). If Titus turns out to oppose Aegon and the Golden Company things might be different, of course. Then they could crush him. But right now Aegon has to tread very carefully not to antagonize the Reach against him. And having some filthy sellsword with golden arm rings claiming he is a Peake and the Lord of Starpike is not likely to convince Titus' peers in the Reach that they can trust or work with these guys.

Like I said, that filthy sellsword with the golden arm bands is going to kick some ass regardless of what Titus's lordly peers think of him. Heck, they're liable to get their lordly asses kicked too, unless of course they're bad asses like Randyll. 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Like I said, that filthy sellsword with the golden arm bands is going to kick some ass regardless of what Titus's lordly peers think of him. Heck, they're liable to get their lordly asses kicked too, unless of course they're bad asses like Randyll. 

You are aware that the Golden Company doesn't want to conquer the Reach, right? And that the Reach could thrice the number of the men against the Golden Company even after the Tyrell armies at KL have been defeated. If they want to kick some asses in the Reach they will get kicked back so hard that they fly back across the Narrow so quickly that even Bittersteel in his grave will get jealous.

[Scorpion92]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

You are aware that the Golden Company doesn't want to conquer the Reach, right? And that the Reach could thrice the number of the men against the Golden Company even after the Tyrell armies at KL have been defeated. If they want to kick some asses in the Reach they will get kicked back so hard that they fly back across the Narrow so quickly that even Bittersteel in his grave will get jealous.

Not if Stormlands and Dornish armies join them.

But I agree, Aegon and Jon Connington will try not to antagonize Reach lords. Although Highgarden and House Tyrell are going to be sacked by Dornishmen, with Willas (new head of the house after Mace dies against Golden Gompany) and Olenna there (the brains of the family), which is foreshadowed by TWOIAF. And given Connington's new "Tywinesque" philosophy, the sack of Highgarden will be brutal.

I am just of the opinion that Randyll Tarly is the future Lord of the Reach, and it will happen soon in Winds.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

You are aware that the Golden Company doesn't want to conquer the Reach, right? And that the Reach could thrice the number of the men against the Golden Company even after the Tyrell armies at KL have been defeated. If they want to kick some asses in the Reach they will get kicked back so hard that they fly back across the Narrow so quickly that even Bittersteel in his grave will get jealous.

Or maybe Redwyne, Hightower, and now Rowan are on Team Aegon, seriously cutting into, even flipping some of, the 30k men you see the lords of the Reach throwing at the Golden Company.

And if you don't think Aegon's men intend to conquer the Reach, which of the Seven Kingdoms do you think they want to conquer? My understanding is they want to conquer all of 'em and claim the Conqueror's throne. 

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Not if Stormlands and Dornish armies join them.

If they actually march into the Reach with the intention to conquer a lot of castles for the likes of Peake they are done. They will lose all sympathy they might have had, and the Reach Lords are actually threatened along their coasts and along the Mander right now. They will have no sympathies for men helping the Ironborn by attacking their peers.

15 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

But I agree, Aegon and Jon Connington will try not to antagonize Reach lords. Although Highgarden and House Tyrell are going to be sacked by Dornishmen, with Willas (new head of the house after Mace dies against Golden Gompany) and Olenna there (the brains of the family), which is foreshadowed by TWOIAF. And given Connington's new "Tywinesque" philosophy, the sack of Highgarden will be brutal.

Willas and Garlan are both not at Highgarden right now. They have gone down south to retake the Shields. And Doran and Arianne would be insane to command such a pointless butchery. If the Dornishmen sack Highgarden the Reach will turn against Aegon. Highgarden is the seat of the old Gardener kings. Attacking and destroying it certainly would turn the Lords of the Reach like a man against the Dornishmen who did this (or rather tried to do it). The Tyrells might not be the most popular liege lords the Reach lords could hope for but they are much more popular in the Reach than the Dornishmen.

If Aegon wants to win and hold the Iron Throne he has to get the Reach lords on board. He can't antagonize them, and a Dornish army marching against (or sacking) Highgarden is not going to help with that.

In fact, if the 10,000 men in the Prince's Pass are going to march into the Reach they better do so to offer their assistance in the fight against the Ironborn in Prince Aegon's name rather than provoking the ire of the Reach by turning against Highgarden.

And, no, the historical destruction of Highgarden at the hands of the Dornishmen at the end of the reign of Garth Greybeard was not a foreshadowing. It was just a historical event to be expected in light of the fact that the Reach and Dorne wages wars for thousands of years.

15 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

I am just of the opinion that Randyll Tarly is the future Lord of the Reach, and it will happen soon in Winds.

There is just no indication whatsoever that Tarly is nothing but Mace's loyal crony. Mathis Rowan might join Aegon and be rewarded for that with a lot of land (and perhaps some new titles) but Tarly will do his duty and possibly even die fighting Aegon (if Mace sends him against the Golden Company).

22 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Or maybe Redwyne, Hightower, and now Rowan are on Team Aegon, seriously cutting into, even flipping some of, the 30k men you see the lords of the Reach throwing at the Golden Company.

The Hightowers will need all men to protect their precious Hightower, and the Redwynes will all be bathing pretty soon. If they are on team Aegon then Aegon doesn't have a team. At least no team that is actually playing a game.

Mathis Rowan might help Aegon in the propaganda game but he has only a token force at Storm's End and he is far away from Goldengrove where he might have some men. Perhaps they can use him to their advantage when Aegon faces the Tyrell army, perhaps not. But he is not carrying an army around in his pocket.

22 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And if you don't think Aegon's men intend to conquer the Reach, which of the Seven Kingdoms do you think they want to conquer? My understanding is they want to conquer all of 'em and claim the Conqueror's throne. 

Yeah, that's why he is going to try to take the capital. He doesn't have to haggle with the Lords of the Reach or fight them if he just takes the Iron Throne and ends the line of the usurper. Then Westeros has either to do him homage, declare for Euron or Stannis, or continue to rebel against him for no good reason. The Lords of the Reach don't like either Tommen/the Lannister nor Stannis and certainly not Euron.

They will accept Aegon as their king quickly enough when he takes the throne. And he can do that with the Golden Company and only the Dornish forces, and, perhaps, a token force from the Reach.

You have to keep in mind that all those hypothetical friends in the Reach have no troops. Mace and Renly took the majority of them, some of those returned, but they (and others) are now down in the South preparing to fight the Ironborn. Many lords have left their castles and the people overseeing them right now won't be particularly keep to raise additional men (even if they can do that) and march them off to the Stormlands to leave their women, children, lands, castles, and harvest undefended against the Ironborn. That would be stupidity.

There might be some - Titus Peake, if he is a friend, and Orton Merryweather - who actually kept most of their strength behind and now take the gamble to declare for Aegon. But the majority of the Reach just one care one way or the other, especially those in the South and those near the banks of the Mander (which should be a lot). They have to deal with the Ironborn. 

[Scorpion92]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If they actually march into the Reach with the intention to conquer a lot of castles for the likes of Peake they are done. They will lose all sympathy they might have had, and the Reach Lords are actually threatened along their coasts and along the Mander right now. They will have no sympathies for men helping the Ironborn by attacking their peers.

I expect by the time Aegon and Golden Company march into the Reach, they will have many stormlanders, Dornishmen and some Reach lords ALREADY on their side. The purpose of this march would be to help Oldtown from ironborn invasion led by Euron and destroy and finish off Tyrells licking their wounds in Highgarden. If Mathis Rowan and Randyll Tarly join them BEFORE they march to the Reach, I see more and more Reach lords joining them. The fact that House Tyrell cannot protect their subordinates from ironborn invasion and got defeated in King's Landing and Stormlands is the exact reason why I believe Reach lords will jump aboard Aegon's ship.

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Willas and Garlan are both not at Highgarden right now. They have gone down south to retake the Shields. And Doran and Arianne would be insane to command such a pointless butchery. If the Dornishmen sack Highgarden the Reach will turn against Aegon. Highgarden is the seat of the old Gardener kings. Attacking and destroying it certainly would turn the Lords of the Reach like a man against the Dornishmen who did this (or rather tried to do it). The Tyrells might not be the most popular liege lords the Reach lords could hope for but they are much more popular in the Reach than the Dornishmen.

I am not sure Willas left with Garlan for Shields, can you provide a quote? Can't seem to remember.

And I am sure Tyrells will take back Shield Islands, but Garlan will be slain by Harras Harlaw and Nightfall. It will be a costly victory, which will drive Reach lords to a new boss like I argued above.

47 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon wants to win and hold the Iron Throne he has to get the Reach lords on board. He can't antagonize them, and a Dornish army marching against (or sacking) Highgarden is not going to help with that.

In fact, if the 10,000 men in the Prince's Pass are going to march into the Reach they better do so to offer their assistance in the fight against the Ironborn in Prince Aegon's name rather than provoking the ire of the Reach by turning against Highgarden.

And, no, the historical destruction of Highgarden at the hands of the Dornishmen at the end of the reign of Garth Greybeard was not a foreshadowing. It was just a historical event to be expected in light of the fact that the Reach and Dorne wages wars for thousands of years.

Prince's Pass army will indeed help Aegon against ironborn. Which enforces my proposal that Randyll will turn cloak - his lands lie at the Marches, so if Dornish want no problems on their march into the Reach, it would be best if Lord Tarly guarantees safe passage.

Nightsong might be sacked once again by Lord Fowler, since it is a castle of new Lord Foote, a Lannister cronie.

There will be no ire of the Reach by the time Dornishmen sack Highgarden because strongest bannermen of House Tyrell will have already abandoned them and joined Aegon. Jon Connington is pragmatic enough to understand that if he truly wants to control the Reach and make lords bend the knee to Aegon, he needs to capture Highgarden and defeat Tyrells. 

Also there is a reason why George introduced this positive relationship between Arianne/Oberyn and Willas - a perfect opportunity for the snakes to sneak into garden and poison the roses under the flag of innocence. I think Jon Connington will employ another guile at Highgarden the way he plans to execute at Storm's End.

He (Connington) also needs a respected and feared policeman to keep Reach lords in check after they dispose the Tyrells. That is why I believe Lord Randyll Tarly is his man, the way Roose Bolton became Tywin's enforcer in the North.

48 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is just no indication whatsoever that Tarly is nothing but Mace's loyal crony. Mathis Rowan might join Aegon and be rewarded for that with a lot of land (and perhaps some new titles) but Tarly will do his duty and possibly even die fighting Aegon (if Mace sends him against the Golden Company).

I disagree, there are countless threads on how Tarly might switch teams if Mace actually is the one marching on Storm's End and falls there. There is no reason why he must keep his loyalty to Mace's family if he is offered something big by Jon Connington.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

I expect by the time Aegon and Golden Company march into the Reach, they will have many stormlanders, Dornishmen and some Reach lords ALREADY on their side. The purpose of this march would be to help Oldtown from ironborn invasion led by Euron and destroy and finish off Tyrells licking their wounds in Highgarden. If Mathis Rowan and Randyll Tarly join them BEFORE they march to the Reach, I see more and more Reach lords joining them. The fact that House Tyrell cannot protect their subordinates from ironborn invasion and got defeated in King's Landing and Stormlands is the exact reason why I believe Reach lords will jump aboard Aegon's ship.

One assumes that going to the Reach will mean nothing to Aegon after Euron has crushed the Redwyne fleet. Should that happen, Euron controls the seas, and Aegon would first have to build a new war fleet to challenge him. Sending men into the Reach will accomplish nothing because they won't be able to engage the Ironborn in battle.

Hell, Oldtown might even bend the knee to Euron, and many other coastal lords might follow suit. Oldtown is a city build on trade. If hundreds of Ironborn ships control waters near the city Oldtown's trade will die, and they can't let that happen. So they will take a pragmatic attitude towards the Ironborn, as the Hightowers did in the past.

And should Euron indeed crush the Redwynes he'll take the Arbor next. One assumes that will become his base of operations if he needs on in the South. Nobody is going to take that back without a very large fleet nobody will have after he destroys the Redwynes.

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

I am not sure Willas left with Garlan for Shields, can you provide a quote? Can't seem to remember.

We learned that Willas and Garlan are raising men to recapture the Shields. It makes little sense for only one of them to take the men down south so I assume both of them went down there. But there is no proof of this as of yet. But we don't really know where Garlan is, either, so this is difficult to say right now.

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

And I am sure Tyrells will take back Shield Islands, but Garlan will be slain by Harras Harlaw and Nightfall. It will be a costly victory, which will drive Reach lords to a new boss like I argued above.

Your entire setting makes little sense, actually, since George said that the cutting of Willas and Garlan Tyrell from the show actually prevented them from adapting stuff that's going to come. Especially Willas seems to become important in the story to come, so I don't think he will die soon. If he and Garlan die they could die off-screen. After all, there is no POV who could cover all those stories you seem to imagine (fighting on the Shield Isles, Reach men vs. Ironborn, etc.).

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

Prince's Pass army will indeed help Aegon against ironborn. Which enforces my proposal that Randyll will turn cloak - his lands lie at the Marches, so if Dornish want no problems on their march into the Reach, it would be best if Lord Tarly guarantees safe passage.

That makes little sense because Arianne might actually decide to declare for Aegon in her very next chapter (after she meets with Prince Aegon at Storm's End) and before the Golden Company even engages the Tyrell army that's marching against Storm's End. That could easily mean that the Dornishmen enter the Reach long before the situation between Aegon and the Tyrells in KL becomes dire.

And Tarly isn't back home at Horn Hill. Nobody needs his permission to do anything. In fact, his lands are defenseless considering that he most likely took quite a few of his own with him when he joined King Renly.

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

Nightsong might be sacked once again by Lord Fowler, since it is a castle of new Lord Foote, a Lannister cronie.

That is certainly a possibility but we don't know whether Philip Foote has taken the castle as of yet. In ASoS he is still at KL, and nothing indicates he left in the meantime. If it is still held by some Carons/Caron-friendly people one should expect the Dornishmen would not be stupid enough to engage in a battle with them. They would be enemies of the Lannisters as much as the Dornishmen.

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

There will be no ire of the Reach by the time Dornishmen sack Highgarden because strongest bannermen of House Tyrell will have already abandoned them and joined Aegon. Jon Connington is pragmatic enough to understand that if he truly wants to control the Reach and make lords bend the knee to Aegon, he needs to capture Highgarden and defeat Tyrells.

Not really, because the Tyrells themselves can turn their cloak and declare for Prince Aegon. What you seem to expect Tarly might do Mace himself could do, too. What if Tarly marches against Aegon and is butchered and Mace has to make a deal? What if Mace is killed? Then Willas will be Lord of Highgarden and he has little reason to necessarily continue his father's Margaery-Tommen plan? What if Margaery is found guilty of adultery or Tommen loses his crown before they get around to face Aegon in battle (could happen if Cersei loses her trial-by-combat or it is revealed that her champion is an abomination created by black magic - one assumes the High Septon won't accept the verdict of the gods if Gregor's identity is revealed during the fighting - he will rather accuse her of blasphemy and demand that she be stoned to death or put down like the mad dog she is). What if Cersei and her children flee the city, or what if Tommen dies? What if there is open violence between the Lannisters and Tyrells after the murder of Kevan?

All that could lead to a new assessment of Tyrell politics. They are bound to stick to Tommen and the Lannisters forever.

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

Also there is a reason why George introduced this positive relationship between Arianne/Oberyn and Willas - a perfect opportunity for the snakes to sneak into garden and poison the roses under the flag of innocence. I think Jon Connington will employ another guile at Highgarden the way he plans to execute at Storm's End.

That would be rather repetitive not to mention difficult to pull off. You know what kind of castle Highgarden is, right? And we have to keep in mind that Mace has originally left a garrison of 10,000 men at Highgarden. The Tyrells have a lot of men, and even while fighting the Ironborn there is little reason to assume that Willas and Garlan would not ensure that Highgarden is safe. After all, the Ironborn now have access to the Mander while they have no retaken the Shields, and if the Ironborn sailed up the river while they prepared to cross over to the Shields they could actually attack Highgarden.

The problem of the Tyrells was never a lack of men, the problem was that they lacked the ships to immediately strike back at the Ironborn. That's why Margaery demanded from Cersei that she sent the Redwyne fleet immediately down south.

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

He (Connington) also needs a respected and feared policeman to keep Reach lords in check after they dispose the Tyrells. That is why I believe Lord Randyll Tarly is his man, the way Roose Bolton became Tywin's enforcer in the North.

I just don't find that plausible. Right now Aegon is at best a nuisance, no major threat. When Dorne joins he will become more dangerous, but Randyll Tarly certainly is no friend of the Dornishmen. Roose joined Tywin after Robb's cause was essentially lost. They could not hope stand against both the Lannisters and Tyrells. But Tarly is in no such position, and Mace himself knows how to jump ship well enough. Don't you think he would deliver both Tommen and Myrcella to Aegon in heart beat if he could save his life and titles in that way?

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

I disagree, there are countless threads on how Tarly might switch teams if Mace actually is the one marching on Storm's End and falls there. There is no reason why he must keep his loyalty to Mace's family if he is offered something big by Jon Connington.

There are a lot of threats but they are not based on evidence. People speculate that Tarly feels humiliated by Mace, etc. but there is no evidence for this. Tarly got a lot of rewards for his services, and he now climbed all the way up to the Small Council. With Kevan dead they will need to name a new Lord Regent, and if Mace takes the office (which he most likely will) he could actually name Tarly Hand of the King. Even if not, Kevan makes it clear that he sees Tarly as the smarter and more dangerous man, giving no indication that he is working against both Kevan and Mace (a good example for Golden Company moles at court would be Orton and Taena - they put the Lannisters and Tyrells against each other in a pretty effective way). He went out of his way to save Margaery and her cousins from the sparrows, and actually is a proponent of the idea to use violence against the Faith. That doesn't sound like a man who is willing to give up. If Mace marched against Aegon without Tarly and were defeated I could easily enough see Tarly dying for King Tommen and Queen Margaery in KL. The man has principles. And he knows how to fight a battle.

[Lion of the West]

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

There is certainly truth to this, but one really wonders who the hell but Lord Titus could Laswell Peake mean when he talks about the friends in the Reach some of them have. I mean, he, personally, might have kept close ties with the Peake branch back home, and he might actually not be descended from the lordly branch of House Peake but, say, from a younger brother of Lord Gormon who went into exile with Bittersteel and later helped to build the Golden Company.

Could be, but Laswell Peake might just as well have been the Lord of Starpike once upon a time who was forced into exile by Aerys, Robert or some Tyrell. We don't know yet, and we have so far no indication of who these "friends in the Reach" are. Although given the sentiment that "still have" hints that the old network of Blackfyre supporters is still operational to some degree with the links forged at that time still holding.

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

The idea that a man like Laswell is closely connected to an actual Lord of the Reach who isn't named Peake doesn't make a lot of sense to me, actually. The only other lordly house of the Reach I can think of that might actually be friends with the Golden Company is House Merryweather, due to Orton's exile. He could have served alongside the other officers of the Golden Company before he was allowed to return.

I can see many versions where Laswell is connected with another House than Titus' Peake. It could be the House of the mother to Laswell and his brothers. It could be some friend he made at some point or something else entirely. It all depends on how Laswell Peake ended up with the Golden Company. Was he born into it, or did he and his brothers join at a later date? We don't know yet.

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

But a century is a long time and the idea that any Oakhearts, Tarlys, Fossoways, Rowans, Cranes, etc. actually associate themselves with common sellswords who have long lost whatever noble status they once had doesn't make much sense to me. A lord can be friends with a hedge knight and a commoner in a certain way, but he is not going to marry the daughter of such a man, nor is he allowing such a 'friend' to dictate his policies.

For the first part, the last conflict with the Golden Company was in 260 AC which means it was about fourty years before the series is set, and it involved several characters active in the main series. In fact I dare say that it would make perfect sense for various exiles from Westeros seeking to return to join with the Golden Company up until 260 AC when there was a Blackfyre line to press claims on the Iron Throne. Afterwards it could well be that the interest dropped as there was not official policy within the Golden Company to place a new king on the Iron Throne. But this leaves us with a gap of fourty years,about a single generation, and not a century and I see no real problem that the Golden Company would have been able to keep contact with old friends across a generation. Not to mention that there might also be fresher noble recruits to the Golden Company. I doubt they stopped recruiting new blood after the Company was first founded.

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

Mathis Rowan and others in the Reach might be still Targaryen loyalists and thus willing to join Aegon. But they won't do so because they are 'friends' with the Golden Company.

No, most likely not.

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

And I also find the idea that Laswell specifically wants to claim Starpike for himself a rather odd notion. The man isn't Jon Connington. He did not lose his lordly seat and then reclaimed it. He is (presumably) just descended from some Peakes who once went into exile with Bittersteel.

How much do we know about Laswell Peake and his brothers anyhow? If he is, presumably, a former Lord Peake of Starpike who was driven into exile by the Tyrells he has every reason to want to get his castle back. And why not get the old Peake castles back while they're at it? Its a foolish king who does not reward his friends.

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Golden Company intends to seat the true king in the Iron Throne. And once Aegon VI is crowned and anointed he would have to be a very grateful king. The line of the usurper will be extinguished, and Storm's End is going to a new lord, a lord of Aegon's making. There will be quite a few prices to give, in the Stormlands (the Carons - and possibly the Dondarrions, too - seem to be extinct), in the Crownlands Rosby, Stokeworth, and Hayford could get new lords of Aegon's making, and in the Riverlands the Darrys are extinct, and with the Whents gone (and Litlefinger not yet a friend of Aegon's) Harrenhal would be a very ripe price. The Twins will also need a new lord soon, just as Riverrun might.

The Golden Company has been trying to seat the true king on the Iron Throne since 212 AC but without much success. I am however happy that you've come to realize the necessity of giving one's friends rewards for fighting for you. Many of the castles you mentioned could well be taken, but given how they are likely already inpossession of other lords, it will in effect be not different than to take away Crakehall from the Crakehalls or Bitterbridge from the Caswells.

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

Once the Shields are retaken new lords might have to be made there (if Euron extinguished all the lines) and there might other minor seats in the Crownlands and Riverlands that could need lords, too.

Very likely yes, but I doubt there will be many lordships just sitting around without anyone occupying the title.

On 2017-02-16 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

Aegon has no need to antagonize the Peakes by allowing Laswell to attack/claim Lord Titus' seat from himself (assuming the man is actually the Lord of Starpike). If Titus turns out to oppose Aegon and the Golden Company things might be different, of course. Then they could crush him. But right now Aegon has to tread very carefully not to antagonize the Reach against him. And having some filthy sellsword with golden arm rings claiming he is a Peake and the Lord of Starpike is not likely to convince Titus' peers in the Reach that they can trust or work with these guys.

I think the Golden Company will be more unruly than you anticipate. Franklyn Flowers for example wants to kill Fossoways and I doubt that he'll just give up his life's quest for the sake of the Fossoways coming to an understanding with Aegon. So in short; I agree with you that Aegon will need to thread carefully, but I think that he'll blunder significantly when positioned between the desires and wants of the men on whose swords he took the throne, and the many Westerosi lords he will need to win over to keep that throne.

[Scorpion92]

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

One assumes that going to the Reach will mean nothing to Aegon after Euron has crushed the Redwyne fleet. Should that happen, Euron controls the seas, and Aegon would first have to build a new war fleet to challenge him. Sending men into the Reach will accomplish nothing because they won't be able to engage the Ironborn in battle.

Hell, Oldtown might even bend the knee to Euron, and many other coastal lords might follow suit. Oldtown is a city build on trade. If hundreds of Ironborn ships control waters near the city Oldtown's trade will die, and they can't let that happen. So they will take a pragmatic attitude towards the Ironborn, as the Hightowers did in the past.

And should Euron indeed crush the Redwynes he'll take the Arbor next. One assumes that will become his base of operations if he needs on in the South. Nobody is going to take that back without a very large fleet nobody will have after he destroys the Redwynes.

Yes, that is true, Euron might crush Redwyne fleet and plan his future attack on Oldtown from the Arbor, I am in agreement here with you.

As it was stated in the text (cannot find the quote), it said something along the lines "If King's Landing loses the Arbor and Oldtown, the realm will collapse". Aegon and his faction cannot hope to rule Westeros if the Arbor and the Oldtown are under Euron's occupation. I am pretty sure Jon Connington will be deeply involved in Oldtown story because of his grey scale as well - the Citadel might be the only place that can help him.

I can see a scenario where Hightowers might bend the knee to Euron to save themselves and people of the city, but I do not think Euron will stay in Oldtown too long, he will get whatever he needs that is associated with dragon control or lore (knowledge, artifacts, some dragon related stuff in the Citadel hidden from everyone else, I am not sure what it is yet) and leave the conquered city in the hands of happy as hell ironborn (Oldtown is a pillage paradise for these people). If you have read Forsaken chapter, you probably know why I think so.

As Euron leaves, I can see Aegon and Jon Connington coming to save the oldest city of Westeros, and Hightowers turning on ironborn and pledging their fealty to the young king. If Hightowers do that, probably the rest of the Reach will follow suit, and Aegon and his faction will be the strongest power house prior Dany's arrival on Dragonstone.

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

We learned that Willas and Garlan are raising men to recapture the Shields. It makes little sense for only one of them to take the men down south so I assume both of them went down there. But there is no proof of this as of yet. But we don't really know where Garlan is, either, so this is difficult to say right now.

I mean, you might be right, but my guess is that Garlan is the most militaristic member of House Tyrell, if he has enough swords by his side, he does not need his brother by his side to retake weakly defended Shield Islands. He can do it himself. Willas can stay behind in Highgarden and rule as Lord Tyrell and deal with other problems with the help of Olenna, especially if Mace falls in battle against Golden Company in Stormlands (of course it is not for sure who leads this Tyrell host, Randyll or Mace, but I think it is Mace, for multiple story reasons and ramifications for future plot line).

Again, this is all speculation.

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

Your entire setting makes little sense, actually, since George said that the cutting of Willas and Garlan Tyrell from the show actually prevented them from adapting stuff that's going to come. Especially Willas seems to become important in the story to come, so I don't think he will die soon. If he and Garlan die they could die off-screen. After all, there is no POV who could cover all those stories you seem to imagine (fighting on the Shield Isles, Reach men vs. Ironborn, etc.).

Yeah, I can see Garlan's death happening off-screen, like some character in King's Landing (Cersei maybe?) receiving news of Tyrells getting Shields back, but with an enormous cost - Ser Garlan the Gallant falling in the battle. Imagine Cersei's smug thoughts and getting an idea of contacting Euron, since he is a real deal. Add the defeat of Redwyne fleet, and this idea amplifies a little.

But I agree about Willas - we will see his death from some POV, as the last Lord of Highgarden. I think that would be either Arianne or Jon Connington as Aegon's forces sack Highgarden. But you disagree with me, and I understand why. Just call it a hunch.

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

That makes little sense because Arianne might actually decide to declare for Aegon in her very next chapter (after she meets with Prince Aegon at Storm's End) and before the Golden Company even engages the Tyrell army that's marching against Storm's End. That could easily mean that the Dornishmen enter the Reach long before the situation between Aegon and the Tyrells in KL becomes dire.

And Tarly isn't back home at Horn Hill. Nobody needs his permission to do anything. In fact, his lands are defenseless considering that he most likely took quite a few of his own with him when he joined King Renly.

I do not think she will declare for Aegon BEFORE Golden Company defeats Tyrells army. Once he proves himself to her, that he and his band of sellswords are real deal, she will declare Dornish spearmen to him. I don't see any logic doing it BEFORE the battle.

You argued that Aegon and Jon Connington should not provoke the Reach lords, but now you are saying they do not need to start a dialogue with Randyll Tarly to cross his lands and enter the Reach - a man known as the best military commander of the Reach and someone you do not cross and mess with. That does not make sense. If there was any hope of luring Randyll to their side, it would be lost the minute Dornishman enter Horn Hill lands without his approval. They need at least to parlay with the man, especially if they are going to meet Randyll in King's Landing with a formidable army.

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

Not really, because the Tyrells themselves can turn their cloak and declare for Prince Aegon. What you seem to expect Tarly might do Mace himself could do, too. What if Tarly marches against Aegon and is butchered and Mace has to make a deal? What if Mace is killed? Then Willas will be Lord of Highgarden and he has little reason to necessarily continue his father's Margaery-Tommen plan? What if Margaery is found guilty of adultery or Tommen loses his crown before they get around to face Aegon in battle (could happen if Cersei loses her trial-by-combat or it is revealed that her champion is an abomination created by black magic - one assumes the High Septon won't accept the verdict of the gods if Gregor's identity is revealed during the fighting - he will rather accuse her of blasphemy and demand that she be stoned to death or put down like the mad dog she is). What if Cersei and her children flee the city, or what if Tommen dies? What if there is open violence between the Lannisters and Tyrells after the murder of Kevan?

All that could lead to a new assessment of Tyrell politics. They are bound to stick to Tommen and the Lannisters forever.

Tyrells cannot declare for Aegon because this move will make them the worst joke of the realm and alienate and lose respect of all their bannermen. They switched sides already during War of the Five Kings and chose the Lannisters. They already represent the Iron Throne and rule the realm alongside the lions. Switching sides to Aegon will prove to everyone that they are so weak in the face of slightest danger they are afraid to face it on and turn tail. Especially with their shaky hold over Reach lords, I just do not see this happening. Sometimes you just have to stick to your choice and live with the consequences. At the time Tyrells chose Lannisters, Tywin was alive, and no one could challenge their alliance. I am afraid House Tyrell will pay a huge price for their ambitions.

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

That would be rather repetitive not to mention difficult to pull off. You know what kind of castle Highgarden is, right? And we have to keep in mind that Mace has originally left a garrison of 10,000 men at Highgarden. The Tyrells have a lot of men, and even while fighting the Ironborn there is little reason to assume that Willas and Garlan would not ensure that Highgarden is safe. After all, the Ironborn now have access to the Mander while they have no retaken the Shields, and if the Ironborn sailed up the river while they prepared to cross over to the Shields they could actually attack Highgarden.

The problem of the Tyrells was never a lack of men, the problem was that they lacked the ships to immediately strike back at the Ironborn. That's why Margaery demanded from Cersei that she sent the Redwyne fleet immediately down south.

Well, again, I argue that by the time Jon Connington decides to take Highgarden, House Tyrell will be at its lowest. Garlan will be slain at Shield Islands, Margaery will probably perish in the events in the capital, Loras god knows is where, Mace slain in Stormlands by our very attacker, and Olenna's political power will be diminished greatly, especially if her homeland, the Arbor, is sacked by ironborn.

And you are right that Highgarden is a great castle that can withstand sieges. Which is why we enter Jon Connington and his guile tactics used in Storm's End. What those tactics would be, I don't know, but I believe it will involve Arianne and Dornishmen, as foreshadowed in TWOIAF book, which you think does not foreshadow anything. I disagree.

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

I just don't find that plausible. Right now Aegon is at best a nuisance, no major threat. When Dorne joins he will become more dangerous, but Randyll Tarly certainly is no friend of the Dornishmen. Roose joined Tywin after Robb's cause was essentially lost. They could not hope stand against both the Lannisters and Tyrells. But Tarly is in no such position, and Mace himself knows how to jump ship well enough. Don't you think he would deliver both Tommen and Myrcella to Aegon in heart beat if he could save his life and titles in that way?

See above about my thoughts of Tyrells jumping to Aegon's side. It will not happen, because they are direct enemies fighting for the same thing - the throne. And Tyrells cannot back away now, because if they do, they will lose all credibility and respect of their bannermen.

Randyll Tarly is no friend of Dornish, but he is also no friend to ironborn attacking his country and not a man who will turn down an offer of bettering the position of his family in the society if such opportunity comes up. If Aegon comes to the city and and the Faith and masses support him great deal, no one will blame Randyll of choosing to switch sides to a boy leading his own battles instead of a boy chasing cats.

That is the whole thing of this series - power resides where men believe it resides. Clearly, House Tyrell will keep failing to protect the realm (as their duty as royal family) and their own country (as their duty as Lords of Highgarden). Therefore, a new Lord of the Reach is required and trusted to do better job.

On 2/17/2017 at 6:03 AM, Lord Varys said:

There are a lot of threats but they are not based on evidence. People speculate that Tarly feels humiliated by Mace, etc. but there is no evidence for this. Tarly got a lot of rewards for his services, and he now climbed all the way up to the Small Council. With Kevan dead they will need to name a new Lord Regent, and if Mace takes the office (which he most likely will) he could actually name Tarly Hand of the King. Even if not, Kevan makes it clear that he sees Tarly as the smarter and more dangerous man, giving no indication that he is working against both Kevan and Mace (a good example for Golden Company moles at court would be Orton and Taena - they put the Lannisters and Tyrells against each other in a pretty effective way). He went out of his way to save Margaery and her cousins from the sparrows, and actually is a proponent of the idea to use violence against the Faith. That doesn't sound like a man who is willing to give up. If Mace marched against Aegon without Tarly and were defeated I could easily enough see Tarly dying for King Tommen and Queen Margaery in KL. The man has principles. And he knows how to fight a battle.

Well, I can see you have this position on Randyll Tarly as this super loyal soldier who will never abandon Tyrells in their time of need. You are talking about a man who butchered soldiers of his wife's family when he seized the provisions after Renly's death. And actually Kevan's comments about how Tarly is very dangerous should give us more suspicions 

Yes, Mace Tyrell might make him Hand of the King as his Lord Regent of the realm, but when you are talking about the future of House Tarly, I will choose to become Lord Paramount of the Reach over position of Hand of the King every day of the week. The former offer assures much better station, wealth and power for future generations of Tarlys, while the latter only gives Randyll and his family a temporary and very shaky position over a realm that is half-broken and burned and half in rebellion. I know I would choose the Reach over a position on small council.

And I will discuss this Tarly matter with you after season 7 of the show finishes (assuming you know about some plot leaks).

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

Could be, but Laswell Peake might just as well have been the Lord of Starpike once upon a time who was forced into exile by Aerys, Robert or some Tyrell. We don't know yet, and we have so far no indication of who these "friends in the Reach" are. Although given the sentiment that "still have" hints that the old network of Blackfyre supporters is still operational to some degree with the links forged at that time still holding.

There is no reason to believe Laswell and his brothers ever were lords, neither of Starpike nor any other place. They are not even referred to as lords while Jon Connington actually is.

If a Lord Peake was exiled by Aerys one should expect us to know about that. Since we don't know anything of that sort we should not assume, especially we since we can easily imagine Peakes going into exile with Bittersteel after the First or Third Rebellion. Hell, some sons or cousins of Lord Gormon's might even have gotten away after the Second Rebellion since they weren't at Whitewalls. They could have heard what had transpired in the Riverlands and decided that they feared the revenge of Bloodraven.

And then there is the Peake Uprising and the Fourth Rebellion. As long as we have no evidence to the contrary I go with Laswell and his brothers being descended from Peakes who fought alongside Bittersteel.

And I really think the history of House Peake makes it very likely that Lord Titus could be a friend of his cousins in the Golden Company. Their family suffered a lot from the hands of the Targaryens and their sycophants.

Quote

For the first part, the last conflict with the Golden Company was in 260 AC which means it was about fourty years before the series is set, and it involved several characters active in the main series. In fact I dare say that it would make perfect sense for various exiles from Westeros seeking to return to join with the Golden Company up until 260 AC when there was a Blackfyre line to press claims on the Iron Throne. Afterwards it could well be that the interest dropped as there was not official policy within the Golden Company to place a new king on the Iron Throne. But this leaves us with a gap of fourty years,about a single generation, and not a century and I see no real problem that the Golden Company would have been able to keep contact with old friends across a generation. Not to mention that there might also be fresher noble recruits to the Golden Company. I doubt they stopped recruiting new blood after the Company was first founded.

Oh, exiles from the Seven Kingdoms certainly gravitate towards the Golden Company but there is no reason that such should have any Blackfyre sympathies or keep a lot of lordly friends in the Reach or any place else. Franklyn Flowers and Rolly Duckfield certainly have no lordly friends in the Reach. Tristan Rivers might have friends in the Riverlands. It would be interesting if it turned out that he was a Whent or Darry bastard.

Quote

The Golden Company has been trying to seat the true king on the Iron Throne since 212 AC but without much success. I am however happy that you've come to realize the necessity of giving one's friends rewards for fighting for you. Many of the castles you mentioned could well be taken, but given how they are likely already inpossession of other lords, it will in effect be not different than to take away Crakehall from the Crakehalls or Bitterbridge from the Caswells.

Most of the castles I mentioned are not in possession of other lords right now. And those who are are in the hands of lackwit women, infant babes, or absent lords. It should be comparatively easy to sweep those aside. Aegon could, of course, also attaint houses who are held by ancient and powerful families, and he might do that to his worst enemies but it is always a better way to steal from people who are not likely to be able to fight back rather than challenge powerful people or people with powerful friends.

Quote

I think the Golden Company will be more unruly than you anticipate. Franklyn Flowers for example wants to kill Fossoways and I doubt that he'll just give up his life's quest for the sake of the Fossoways coming to an understanding with Aegon. So in short; I agree with you that Aegon will need to thread carefully, but I think that he'll blunder significantly when positioned between the desires and wants of the men on whose swords he took the throne, and the many Westerosi lords he will need to win over to keep that throne.

Well, while we have no reason to believe Laswell and his brothers - as well as the other exiles - want specific castles we have no reason to assume there will be many problems. Pretty much any castle large enough should do. Keep in mind that most of those men never saw a castle from the inside.

But I agree that the presence of Rolly and Franklyn with the Golden Company makes it unlikely that the Fossoways or Caswells will join Aegon, regardless whether they held Blackfyre sympathies in the past or not.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Yes, that is true, Euron might crush Redwyne fleet and plan his future attack on Oldtown from the Arbor, I am in agreement here with you.

I don't think Euron will need to plan an attack on Oldtown. If he wants the city the Hightowers will yield after he has crushed the Redwynes. They will be helpless then. But I don't think he cares about the city all that much. Why should he? He wants the Iron Throne.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

As it was stated in the text (cannot find the quote), it said something along the lines "If King's Landing loses the Arbor and Oldtown, the realm will collapse". Aegon and his faction cannot hope to rule Westeros if the Arbor and the Oldtown are under Euron's occupation. I am pretty sure Jon Connington will be deeply involved in Oldtown story because of his grey scale as well - the Citadel might be the only place that can help him.

Connington has accepted that he is going to die. And his greyscale might long be revealed by the time Aegon turns his eye on Oldtown.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

I can see a scenario where Hightowers might bend the knee to Euron to save themselves and people of the city, but I do not think Euron will stay in Oldtown too long, he will get whatever he needs that is associated with dragon control or lore (knowledge, artifacts, some dragon related stuff in the Citadel hidden from everyone else, I am not sure what it is yet) and leave the conquered city in the hands of happy as hell ironborn (Oldtown is a pillage paradise for these people). If you have read Forsaken chapter, you probably know why I think so.

Again, Euron would not necessarily need to conquer Oldtown. And once he has the Arbor he can afford to be really generous to his people. Oldtown nobody could ever hold without the continuous presence of the entire Ironborn fleet. It is a city on the mainland, after all, not an island. But the Arbor is large and he could install a score of new Ironborn lords there, probably more.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

I mean, you might be right, but my guess is that Garlan is the most militaristic member of House Tyrell, if he has enough swords by his side, he does not need his brother by his side to retake weakly defended Shield Islands. He can do it himself. Willas can stay behind in Highgarden and rule as Lord Tyrell and deal with other problems with the help of Olenna, especially if Mace falls in battle against Golden Company in Stormlands (of course it is not for sure who leads this Tyrell host, Randyll or Mace, but I think it is Mace, for multiple story reasons and ramifications for future plot line).

Still, we don't know what's going on there. Willas is the heir of Highgarden. He is not a martial man but he might take charge anyway to show that he is not afraid and to show that the Tyrells care about their lands and people.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Yeah, I can see Garlan's death happening off-screen, like some character in King's Landing (Cersei maybe?) receiving news of Tyrells getting Shields back, but with an enormous cost - Ser Garlan the Gallant falling in the battle. Imagine Cersei's smug thoughts and getting an idea of contacting Euron, since he is a real deal. Add the defeat of Redwyne fleet, and this idea amplifies a little.

Well, considering that Euron only left a token force back at the Shields one should assume that the Tyrells won't have any problems retaking the Shields. Euron made it clear that he would not come to their help. And Garlan is a very competent warrior and commander, unlikely to make a lot of mistakes. I don't see him dying in battle.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

But I agree about Willas - we will see his death from some POV, as the last Lord of Highgarden. I think that would be either Arianne or Jon Connington as Aegon's forces sack Highgarden. But you disagree with me, and I understand why. Just call it a hunch.

Well, in addition I don't see any reason why Arianne or Connington should care about Highgarden or taking it. They could just as well name Tarly (or anybody, really) the new Lord of Highgarden and then tell him to conquer his new castle himself. Just as King Joffrey did when he named Garlan the new Lord of Brightwater.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

I do not think she will declare for Aegon BEFORE Golden Company defeats Tyrells army. Once he proves himself to her, that he and his band of sellswords are real deal, she will declare Dornish spearmen to him. I don't see any logic doing it BEFORE the battle.

We cannot know that. We don't know what's going to happen when Arianne first lays her eyes on Aegon. Is she going to fall in love? If she does, she might declare Dorne for him pretty much at once.

Then it might turn out that the Dornish army is going to help Aegon defeat the Tyrell army.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

You argued that Aegon and Jon Connington should not provoke the Reach lords, but now you are saying they do not need to start a dialogue with Randyll Tarly to cross his lands and enter the Reach - a man known as the best military commander of the Reach and someone you do not cross and mess with. That does not make sense. If there was any hope of luring Randyll to their side, it would be lost the minute Dornishman enter Horn Hill lands without his approval. They need at least to parlay with the man, especially if they are going to meet Randyll in King's Landing with a formidable army.

No, they do not if they actually enter the Reach to offer the Lords of the Reach help against the Ironborn in Aegon's name. And they certainly can provoke Tarly. The man is right now one of the foremost enemies Prince Aegon has.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Tyrells cannot declare for Aegon because this move will make them the worst joke of the realm and alienate and lose respect of all their bannermen. They switched sides already during War of the Five Kings and chose the Lannisters. They already represent the Iron Throne and rule the realm alongside the lions. Switching sides to Aegon will prove to everyone that they are so weak in the face of slightest danger they are afraid to face it on and turn tail. Especially with their shaky hold over Reach lords, I just do not see this happening. Sometimes you just have to stick to your choice and live with the consequences. At the time Tyrells chose Lannisters, Tywin was alive, and no one could challenge their alliance. I am afraid House Tyrell will pay a huge price for their ambitions.

That is a bad argument. The Tyrells are not committed to die with King Tommen, especially after this whole Margaery affair. If that thing spirals out of control the Tyrells might actually stand aside or help Aegon to get rid of the Lannisters and their false king. There is a reason why George introduced the strife of the queens.

And you have to keep in mind that the lands of the Tyrells are under control right now from the Ironborn, making it much more likely than not that the lords who are actually in the Reach right now are not going to turn against the liege lords.

You also oversee the fact that the Tyrells are a very numerous family. Even if Mace's entire line was eradicated, this is not going to be a problem for the House. The man has two sisters (one married to Paxter, the other to Ser Jon Fossoway), three uncles, and quite a few cousins. Male Tyrells we know of Garth the Gross, the Lords Seneschal of Highgarden, Ser Moryn Tyrell, the Lord Commander of the City Watch of Oldtown, Ser Theomore Tyrell, Lazy Leo (not yet a maester), Ser Olymer Tyrell, Raymund and Rickard Tyrell, another Leo Tyrell, Lyonel Tyrell, Lucas Tyrell, Lorent Tyrell.

In addition we have Maester Gormon (a very likely candidate to become the new Grand Maester), Maester Medwick, and Maester Normund.

And that's not counting the women.

I don't think that house is going to be dispossessed or disinherited soon, just as the Lannisters are not going anywhere. Mace's branch might face some problems but Willas always stayed aloof of his father's schemes. That is going to help him a lot.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Well, again, I argue that by the time Jon Connington decides to take Highgarden, House Tyrell will be at its lowest. Garlan will be slain at Shield Islands, Margaery will probably perish in the events in the capital, Loras god knows is where, Mace slain in Stormlands by our very attacker, and Olenna's political power will be diminished greatly, especially if her homeland, the Arbor, is sacked by ironborn.

Again, you forget all the other Tyrells. They will continue business as usual, and quite a few cousins will like they can fill the shoes of the dead guys. 

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

And you are right that Highgarden is a great castle that can withstand sieges. Which is why we enter Jon Connington and his guile tactics used in Storm's End. What those tactics would be, I don't know, but I believe it will involve Arianne and Dornishmen, as foreshadowed in TWOIAF book, which you think does not foreshadow anything. I disagree.

Jon Connington's guile tactics are not likely to work well on Willas Tyrell. They are most likely able to trick Stannis' garrison into believing the Golden Company is working for them. But you don't sneak into Highgarden through some back door. And there is no good relationship between Arianna and Willas. Arianne wanted to meet him once, to check out whether she might marry her. Willas was on good terms with Oberyn, but Oberyn is dead.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

See above about my thoughts of Tyrells jumping to Aegon's side. It will not happen, because they are direct enemies fighting for the same thing - the throne. And Tyrells cannot back away now, because if they do, they will lose all credibility and respect of their bannermen.

The Tyrells can certainly abandon Tommen because they are not his family. Mace could even abandon his daughter, too. He won't do that but the marriage might not survive the next week if things are going to explode in KL.

And the Reach itself is already turning against the Lannisters and Tommen thanks to Cersei not sending immediate help to them. They are not turning against the Tyrells because they actually greatly profited from the entire war. The most powerful Lords of the Reach - the Rowans, Redwynes, Oakhearts, Tarlys, etc. - reaped rewards for their part on the Blackwater. They have little reason to be cross with Mace right now, and if Aegon looks like a better partner than Tommen - why not back him?

Even more so if Tommen and Myrcella die soon. They need a new king then, and those children have no heirs we know of.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Randyll Tarly is no friend of Dornish, but he is also no friend to ironborn attacking his country and not a man who will turn down an offer of bettering the position of his family in the society if such opportunity comes up. If Aegon comes to the city and and the Faith and masses support him great deal, no one will blame Randyll of choosing to switch sides to a boy leading his own battles instead of a boy chasing cats.

But we have no reason to assume that they would even offer Randyll such a deal. Why should they? If they have the upper hand they don't need him. And they certainly have no need to reward him. If Tarly brought them Mace's head and prevented a battle between the Golden Company and the Tyrell men (which is most likely going to kill quite a few people on Aegon's side) then he could expect some rewards. But hardly for just handing a city over that is essentially defenseless.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

That is the whole thing of this series - power resides where men believe it resides. Clearly, House Tyrell will keep failing to protect the realm (as their duty as royal family) and their own country (as their duty as Lords of Highgarden). Therefore, a new Lord of the Reach is required and trusted to do better job.

But Tarly will have failed, too, right? Where was he when the Ironborn invaded the Reach? Where was he when the Shield Islands fell? Chilling at Maidenpool and arranging a marriage for his son.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Well, I can see you have this position on Randyll Tarly as this super loyal soldier who will never abandon Tyrells in their time of need. You are talking about a man who butchered soldiers of his wife's family when he seized the provisions after Renly's death. And actually Kevan's comments about how Tarly is very dangerous should give us more suspicions.

But not that he is plotting against Mace. Rather that he is plotting for his own advancement, and the mounts he is riding to greatness are Tommen and Mace, not Aegon.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Yes, Mace Tyrell might make him Hand of the King as his Lord Regent of the realm, but when you are talking about the future of House Tarly, I will choose to become Lord Paramount of the Reach over position of Hand of the King every day of the week. The former offer assures much better station, wealth and power for future generations of Tarlys, while the latter only gives Randyll and his family a temporary and very shaky position over a realm that is half-broken and burned and half in rebellion. I know I would choose the Reach over a position on small council.

Again, I'm not holding my breath that Aegon is even considering handing Highgarden to Tarly. If he would attaint House Tyrell he would reward one of his foremost commanders and friends with such a great seat, not some Reach lord who came to his cause rather late.

In addition, being the Hand and sitting on the council of an eight-year-old king is essentially the greatest thing you can hope for. The king is in your hands, so you essentially rule the Realm. You can amass tremendous wealth and power. Things Tarly could never do as Aegon's man.

13 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

And I will discuss this Tarly matter with you after season 7 of the show finishes (assuming you know about some plot leaks).

No, I don't know anything about any plot leaks and prefer not to know it. I don't really care about the show, and I really don't expect anything happening with House Tarly in the show have any significance to the plot in the books.

[Lion of the West]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to believe Laswell and his brothers ever were lords, neither of Starpike nor any other place. They are not even referred to as lords while Jon Connington actually is.

That could understandably be a case, but then again, we don't know much of the Peake's history at this point. So I withheld that they per necesity can't have been lords.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If a Lord Peake was exiled by Aerys one should expect us to know about that. Since we don't know anything of that sort we should not assume, especially we since we can easily imagine Peakes going into exile with Bittersteel after the First or Third Rebellion. Hell, some sons or cousins of Lord Gormon's might even have gotten away after the Second Rebellion since they weren't at Whitewalls. They could have heard what had transpired in the Riverlands and decided that they feared the revenge of Bloodraven.

Why should we have heard about it? Starpike isn't a very significant center of power in the current Westeros and so its fate is probably fairly unimportant to most. In fact we didn't hear about most of what Aerys did until we got WoIaF. The only rebellion that the Peakes could reasonably have gone into exile after was the Third Rebellion where House Peake might have joined with Haegon Blackfyre. After the first rebellion, the lord himself stayed at home and so no sense that some lesser Peakes fled and after the second rebellion not much happened and so we don't know what the Peakes thought about it, just as there don't seem to have been much support from mainland Westeros for the Maelys. Now someone could have fled after the second rebellion, but I don't find it very convincing. 

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And then there is the Peake Uprising and the Fourth Rebellion. As long as we have no evidence to the contrary I go with Laswell and his brothers being descended from Peakes who fought alongside Bittersteel.

Could well be, but just as much they might be of fresher blood.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And I really think the history of House Peake makes it very likely that Lord Titus could be a friend of his cousins in the Golden Company. Their family suffered a lot from the hands of the Targaryens and their sycophants.

Not at all impossible, of course.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, exiles from the Seven Kingdoms certainly gravitate towards the Golden Company but there is no reason that such should have any Blackfyre sympathies or keep a lot of lordly friends in the Reach or any place else. Franklyn Flowers and Rolly Duckfield certainly have no lordly friends in the Reach. Tristan Rivers might have friends in the Riverlands. It would be interesting if it turned out that he was a Whent or Darry bastard.

I would expect Blackfyre sympathies to develop as the goals of the exiles and the Blackfyres comes the same; return to Westeros. They may well start off at pro-Targaryen but when they are exiled and the Targaryens don't call them back, the only real option is to join with the Blackfyres and return with sword in hand.

Also the Blacks in those days seems to have been fairly well connected with each other. The Second Rebellion for example is an example of how Blacks from across Westeros are drawn together to Whitewalls and they bring Daemon Blackfyre there as well. To me it speaks that the the ones siding with the Black Dragon do keep in touch with each other.

And I didn't mean that all members of the Golden Company have lorly friends, but that some of them do have them and its reasonable that people still hoping against hope for a Blackfyre victory may still have been alive or brought up their sons to think likewise since it was "only" some fourty years between WoFK and WoNK. That less than the distance between our own days and the Vietnamn war, which I would assume is still a war of some significance for many people.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Most of the castles I mentioned are not in possession of other lords right now. And those who are are in the hands of lackwit women, infant babes, or absent lords. It should be comparatively easy to sweep those aside. Aegon could, of course, also attaint houses who are held by ancient and powerful families, and he might do that to his worst enemies but it is always a better way to steal from people who are not likely to be able to fight back rather than challenge powerful people or people with powerful friends.

In contrary, pretty much all of the castles you mentioned have lords invested in them who will not easily see Aegon sweep them aside to give the castles to unwashed exiles and sellswords. I'll go throught them and point out all of their friends.

Carons: Already in possession of a lord of known martial skill, so no easy pickings there, and who has friends in the Westerlands

Dondarrions: Can't say for sure, so its possible that it can be taken

Rosby: Lots of candidates already so by giving it to some random and unrelated dude Aegon will piss on alot of people from many different Houses.

Stokeworth: Like Caron in possession of a lord with great fighting skill who isn't going to surrender the castle easily

Hayford: Under the thumb of the Lannisters, so taking it away will be a move against them

Darry: See Hayford

Harrenhal: No idea how Littlefinger will react to be honest

Twins: The power house in the Riverlands and so will not be easily taken

Riverrun: Either in possession of the Freys or in possession of the BwB who will hardly welcome anyone into those walls who isn't a Tully or has much Tully blood.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, while we have no reason to believe Laswell and his brothers - as well as the other exiles - want specific castles we have no reason to assume there will be many problems. Pretty much any castle large enough should do. Keep in mind that most of those men never saw a castle from the inside.

Keep in mind that they do have various names from known Houses in Westeros. I see no reason that GRRM would give someone the name "Peake" if that character would be totally disinterested in Starpike if for no other reason than the tradition of dynastic continuity in Westeros. The Lannisters of Darry are for example already getting a quartered banner to help with their rule due to the smallolk being used to be ruled by a "Lord Darry". Likewise most of the people in the Golden Company would need to change their names if they got other castles, like for example Bronn of the Blackwater changed his name to Bronn Stokeworth. In my opinion these neo-Houses in the Golden Company wants very specific things that goes along with their adopted names. It remains to see how well Aegon will balance this.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But I agree that the presence of Rolly and Franklyn with the Golden Company makes it unlikely that the Fossoways or Caswells will join Aegon, regardless whether they held Blackfyre sympathies in the past or not.

I am happy we could reach an agreement.

One further thing I have noticed is that you seem very confident in that everything will essentially fall into Aegon's, and later Daenaerys' hands. I would like to caution you with how the end came for Stannis, and his erstwhile legion of fans. It didn't become a triumphant trail of glory down to King's Landing as many predicted to be certain and the fabled Battle of Ice may not at all be Stannis' victory by supreme tactics. This is after all Asoiaf and many things can, and probably will, happen before the dust is settled.