The Sunland Lord

Why Varys didn't stop the assassination of Daenerys in Season 1?

52 posts in this topic

On another note, I really hope Dany badmouths Ned infront of Jon and Jon hits her with truth about her "trusted" advisor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, KINGpanther said:

On another note, I really hope Dany badmouths Ned infront of Jon and Jon hits her with truth about her "trusted" advisor.

You referring to Varys? But Jon doesn't know anything on the matter, as far as I remember. 

However, only Littlefinger and Varys are living witnesses of the council meeting when King Robert ordered the murder of Daenerys. They both can tell the truth about Ned being openly against this, but it's not in their interest. At least surely not Baelish's benefit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It could be implyed Littlefinger tells Jon offscreen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On Invalid Date at 4:18 PM, The Sunland Lord said:

Presumably didn't know, but I don't think it was revealed to the viewers. I even suppose he knew, since he finds things out before others do. But that's speculative and I won't consider a fact something that wasn't confirmed.

But, either he knew or not, he knows very well that if they kill Daenerys, Targ's cause is weakened and you have only Viserys with the Dothrakis. I doubt the latter would feel indebted to him for anything, let alone sailing to King's Landing and make him a King. They didn't care for their late Khal's children, women, let alone some foreign refugee who's sister was once khaleesi and died. 

 

Actually, it is certain that he didn't know because Viserys was still alive when the assassination was put into motion. The meeting of the small council took place in Ep. 5, "The Wolf and the Lion", while Varys didn't die until the end of the next episode, "A Golden Crown" -- after Ned had been reappointed as Hand and Varys told him that it's too late to cancel the operation because "those birds have already flown."

I guess we'll have to disagree on the rest. At this point in the story, no one is even thinking about Dany as the heir to the IT. Her role is to deliver a Dothraki army to Viserys so he can become king. The Dothraki most certainly honor their debts and Viserys kept his part of the bargain. Drogo's bloodriders abandoned Dany after Drogo died, but since he still would have been khal following Dany's death he now has a blood debt to collect from Robert. So yes, Drogo would sail his khalasar across the poison water and his bloodriders would be honor-bound to follow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Actually, it is certain that he didn't know because Viserys was still alive when the assassination was put into motion. The meeting of the small council took place in Ep. 5, "The Wolf and the Lion", while Varys didn't die until the end of the next episode, "A Golden Crown" -- after Ned had been reappointed as Hand and Varys told him that it's too late to cancel the operation because "those birds have already flown."

I guess we'll have to disagree on the rest. At this point in the story, no one is even thinking about Dany as the heir to the IT. Her role is to deliver a Dothraki army to Viserys so he can become king. The Dothraki most certainly honor their debts and Viserys kept his part of the bargain. Drogo's bloodriders abandoned Dany after Drogo died, but since he still would have been khal following Dany's death he now has a blood debt to collect from Robert. So yes, Drogo would sail his khalasar across the poison water and his bloodriders would be honor-bound to follow.

Like I said, I won't speculate on the first subject. I can only guess.

Yes, we'll have to just disagree on the rest.

Rewatching some episodes now before the new season, a scene between Jorah and Ser Barristan in Season 3, Episode 5 strenghtened the plot hole thesis, or Varys didn't care thesis.

Jorah asks Selmy if someone tried to oppose the order of killing Daenerys, assuming he was in the Council (subtly-why didn't he try to do it, questioning his loyalty), and Barristan says he wasn't in the council since Robert didn't trust him. Jorah here doesn't mention Varys hinted to him anything or warned him, unless he just doesn't want to reveal it yet to Selmy. 

I remain convinced on the topic subject theory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is a plot hole and one that they easily could have fixed by just having Jorah explain to Dany that the reason he knew the wine was poisoned was because Varys warned him about it.  I mean we never actually saw what was in that parchment he read prior to the assassination attempt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/7/2017 at 11:36 AM, John Suburbs said:

I think they can square this circle with the fact that Viserys is still alive when the assassination plot is put into action. So at this point, Varys and Illyrio might not consider Dany to be their primary means of restoring the Targ dynasty -- Viserys is. After all, he is the one who will supposedly get a Dothraki army in exchange for Dany's maidenhead, and use that to conquer Westeros. And indeed, they might have counted on Drogo reacting exactly the way he did whether the attempt on Dany was successful or not -- overcoming his fear of the poisoned water and accelerating his desire to subdue the 7K.

Even when Vis dies, they still might not consider Dany a worthy queen. But once word gets back that she has managed to hatch living dragons, well, now it's time for a new plan.

Exactly.  Varys and Illyrio are pragmatists and adapt to circumstances.  Not died in the wool Targ loyalists (viz, Aerys).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sure Varys was supporting Viserys and didn't know he had been killed by Drogo.  Dany wasn't supposed to turn into the woman she is now.  Before marrying Drogo, she was shy and timid.

 

Since Varys was supporting Viserys, the rightful heir to the throne, if Dany were to die, that wouldn't destroy Varys and Illyrio's plans (assuming Varys didn't know Viserys had died by the time he sent the hit on Dany).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This scene proves that Varys and Illyrio were plotting a Targaryen return from the start.

It's irrelevant whether Varys knew Viserys had been killed, since he needs Dany to provide Drogo with a child before the Dothraki would consider invading. Although, he could possibly think it might provoke a Dothraki invasion if Drogo thinks Westeros had Dany assassinated but that's not reasonably suggested.

It appears to be a plot problem in both show and books, not adequately explained in either medium. The books can claim (F)Aegon was always Varys and Illyrio's main plot but that doesn't explain the conversation between Varys and Illyrio in the linked scene above, which is pretty much the same in the books.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On Invalid Date at 4:16 PM, The Sunland Lord said:

Like I said, I won't speculate on the first subject. I can only guess.

Yes, we'll have to just disagree on the rest.

Rewatching some episodes now before the new season, a scene between Jorah and Ser Barristan in Season 3, Episode 5 strenghtened the plot hole thesis, or Varys didn't care thesis.

Jorah asks Selmy if someone tried to oppose the order of killing Daenerys, assuming he was in the Council (subtly-why didn't he try to do it, questioning his loyalty), and Barristan says he wasn't in the council since Robert didn't trust him. Jorah here doesn't mention Varys hinted to him anything or warned him, unless he just doesn't want to reveal it yet to Selmy. 

I remain convinced on the topic subject theory.

I think this lends more credence to the idea that Varys didn't care about Dany at this point. There was nothing to reveal because nothing was said, either in council or in the message to Jorah.

And I don't remember the exact conversation that Arya overheard in the dragon room, but if it mirrored the book, then Varys is pleading with Illyrio to hasten the Dothraki invasion of Westeros, which Illyrio says will not happen until the khal is ready -- after his son is born. And it was right after that that the small council met with news of Dany's pregnancy, where Varys was presented with the perfect opportunity to hasten the invasion: get rid of Dany and her unborn child and spur the khal to exact revenge upon Robert. Even if the plot fails, like it did, he still gets his invasion sooner rather than later.

Remember, we're not discussing what actually would or would not happen or how any of these fictional characters would or would not act based on their honor or whether they owed Viserys anything. I'm just offering up a way that D&D could fudge the events of the first season with the absence of fAegon later on. It's simple: Dany's purpose had already been served by marrying the khal. She was expendable at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Dolorous Gabe said:

This scene proves that Varys and Illyrio were plotting a Targaryen return from the start.

It's irrelevant whether Varys knew Viserys had been killed, since he needs Dany to provide Drogo with a child before the Dothraki would consider invading. Although, he could possibly think it might provoke a Dothraki invasion if Drogo thinks Westeros had Dany assassinated but that's not reasonably suggested.

It appears to be a plot problem in both show and books, not adequately explained in either medium. The books can claim (F)Aegon was always Varys and Illyrio's main plot but that doesn't explain the conversation between Varys and Illyrio in the linked scene above, which is pretty much the same in the books.

Thanks for that link. I think it supports what I've been saying all along: Varys wants to speed up the Dothraki invasion but the khal won't budge until his son is born.

So should Robert kill both Drogo's beloved khaleesi and his unborn son -- an irreplaceable son at that, the Stallion Who Mounts the World -- that should be more than enough reason for Varys to conclude that letting the assassination plot move ahead will bring Drogo to Westeros sooner rather than later -- regardless of whether he feels he still owes Viserys anything or not.

The only other possibility is that, after losing his "khal of khals" to Robert, Drogo would simply shrug his shoulders and forget all about it. Doesn't sound like the Drogo that I see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Thanks for that link. I think it supports what I've been saying all along: Varys wants to speed up the Dothraki invasion but the khal won't budge until his son is born.

So should Robert kill both Drogo's beloved khaleesi and his unborn son -- an irreplaceable son at that, the Stallion Who Mounts the World -- that should be more than enough reason for Varys to conclude that letting the assassination plot move ahead will bring Drogo to Westeros sooner rather than later -- regardless of whether he feels he still owes Viserys anything or not.

The only other possibility is that, after losing his "khal of khals" to Robert, Drogo would simply shrug his shoulders and forget all about it. Doesn't sound like the Drogo that I see.

There is no guarantee that Drogo would lead his Dothraki horde over the poison water because Dany was assassinated. Remember how much they hate the idea of travelling in wooden horses over the poison water. I personally can see him shrugging his shoulders, considering the deal with Viserys incomplete and moving on with the simple culture he knows. I'm not convinced he would value the idea of leading his Dothraki horde to Westeros when there is no longer anything in it for him other than revenge.

It would be a ludicrous sacrifice of Targaryen blood for the mere possibility of hastening an invasion (to say nothing of risking losing their scheme altogether). What Varys and Illyrio would lose if Drogo isn't interested in the invasion is too much to risk when he knows Drogo will have his son within 9 months. Especially when you consider that the war between Wolf and Lion hasn't started yet, and how long a war can last, the timing might arguably be better in a few months' time.

Edited by Dolorous Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nobody tasted the wine, I think it would cause her to lose the baby but not kill her. It makes perfect sense if you think of Viseryon, at least in the books, telling he and his sister were always "escaping" assassins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Varys knowing or not about Viserys being dead is not the key for this discussion.

Weakening the Targ cause would be huge in any case after the eventual Daenerys' murder. Varys just stood there careless and this is a huge plot stinker.

Even if his and Illyrio's plan was to provoke Drogo into war, who would rule after Dothraki success? Drogo or Viserys? "Here's the Kingdom for you boy, now let us be good citizens of the Realm, no more raping and slaves for us". 

If this was their plan, it's the worst plan they could come up with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Thanks for that link. I think it supports what I've been saying all along: Varys wants to speed up the Dothraki invasion but the khal won't budge until his son is born.

So should Robert kill both Drogo's beloved khaleesi and his unborn son -- an irreplaceable son at that, the Stallion Who Mounts the World -- that should be more than enough reason for Varys to conclude that letting the assassination plot move ahead will bring Drogo to Westeros sooner rather than later -- regardless of whether he feels he still owes Viserys anything or not.

The only other possibility is that, after losing his "khal of khals" to Robert, Drogo would simply shrug his shoulders and forget all about it. Doesn't sound like the Drogo that I see.

Illyrio says: "Khal Drogo won't act until his son is born". So they pretty much care about Dany's and her son's well being. 

Which they didn't prove when it mattered, so it's a plot hole to me with no doubt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Jon Snow Nothing said:

Nobody tasted the wine, I think it would cause her to lose the baby but not kill her. It makes perfect sense if you think of Viseryon, at least in the books, telling he and his sister were always "escaping" assassins.

If it wasn't leathal poison but only an abortifacient, the wine merchant/assassin shouldn't have refused to taste it himself when Jorah get's suspicious.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Rhollo said:

If it wasn't leathal poison but only an abortifacient, the wine merchant/assassin shouldn't have refused to taste it himself when Jorah get's suspicious.

The merchant was told it was poisoned. Simple as that. That's how Varys tried to eliminate the last Targaryens, but always failed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On Invalid Date at 6:07 PM, Dolorous Gabe said:

There is no guarantee that Drogo would lead his Dothraki horde over the poison water because Dany was assassinated. Remember how much they hate the idea of travelling in wooden horses over the poison water. I personally can see him shrugging his shoulders, considering the deal with Viserys incomplete and moving on with the simple culture he knows. I'm not convinced he would value the idea of leading his Dothraki horde to Westeros when there is no longer anything in it for him other than revenge.

It would be a ludicrous sacrifice of Targaryen blood for the mere possibility of hastening an invasion (to say nothing of risking losing their scheme altogether). What Varys and Illyrio would lose if Drogo isn't interested in the invasion is too much to risk when he knows Drogo will have his son within 9 months. Especially when you consider that the war between Wolf and Lion hasn't started yet, and how long a war can last, the timing might arguably be better in a few months' time.

Really? The guy who vowed to ride to where the world ends, ride the wooden horses across the black salt water, kill the men in the iron suits and tear down their stone houses, rape their women, take their children as slaves and bring their broken gods back to Vaes Dothrak -- all in retribution for just the attempt on the lives of his queen and son? But if they were actually killed, he'd just say "nah, forget it, bring me another dragon queen so I can father the next king of kings."

Once the attempt was made, Drogo's agreement with Viserys is irrelevant. It's personal now. There is no way a man like Drogo would just let that slide.

The war between wolf and lion is only days away. Once word of Tyrion's capture gets out, Tywin calls his banners and the fighting starts. Varys needs haste, and killing Dany is the only way to get it. If they wait until Rhaego is born, then wait for the Dothraki to march all the way back to the Narrow Sea, find ships to carry them all, sail to Westeros... the fighting could very well be over before they land.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Illyrio says: "Khal Drogo won't act until his son is born". So they pretty much care about Dany's and her son's well being. 

Which they didn't prove when it mattered, so it's a plot hole to me with no doubt.

Lol, so if the son is never born because he was murdered in utero, Drogo would just forget about it? Hardly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Really? The guy who vowed to ride to where the world ends, ride the wooden horses across the black salt water, kill the men in the iron suits and tear down their stone houses, rape their women, take their children as slaves and bring their broken gods back to Vaes Dothrak -- all in retribution for just the attempt on the lives of his queen and son? But if they were actually killed, he'd just say "nah, forget it, bring me another dragon queen so I can father the next king of kings."

Once the attempt was made, Drogo's agreement with Viserys is irrelevant. It's personal now. There is no way a man like Drogo would just let that slide.

The war between wolf and lion is only days away. Once word of Tyrion's capture gets out, Tywin calls his banners and the fighting starts. Varys needs haste, and killing Dany is the only way to get it. If they wait until Rhaego is born, then wait for the Dothraki to march all the way back to the Narrow Sea, find ships to carry them all, sail to Westeros... the fighting could very well be over before they land.

Dany survived the attempt, Drogo had her and his unborn son. With her still alive, the situation is completely different to one where she and his unborn son are gone. I disagree that the agreement becomes irrelevant. I do think Drogo could quite easily consider the idea of leading his Dothraki across the Narrow Sea an unnecessary motion with Dany and their unborn child gone. I'm not stating definitively one way or the other. Remember, this is from Varys and Illyrio's perspective. They are calculating risks and would lose their entire plot and precious rare Targaryen blood if Drogo decided to do nothing, which is why it seems to me a ludicrous idea. And as stated in the scene I linked, they are under the impression that Drogo would do nothing until his son is born.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now