Aegon and the mummer's dragon, a (hopefully) new argument

[Rheagar Prime]

Firstly, your English is excellent for a non-native speaker. Kudos. Secondly, there is an error or two in your analysis.

Daenerys does not see a mummer's dragon. She sees:

A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

This is very, very important, because while a mummer's dragon may be interpreted as a true dragon belonging to a mummer (which personally, I think is wrong given how mummer's blank is repeatedly refers to a fake something or other, I'll address that below), something made of cloth can only be interpreted as something fake or hollow. It is then, that Daenerys describes to Mormont what a cloth dragon's purpose is:

“Perhaps,” she said reluctantly. “Yet the things I saw . . .”

“A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer’s dragon, you said.

What is a mummer’s dragon, pray?”

“A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.”

This is a really important point, because it shows both that Daenerys identifies draws a link between something that's not real, and the phrase "a mummer's dragon", something manufactured for theatre, but not actually real. The term is something Dany has heard before, and indicates a lack of genuinity. It's likely that Quaithe is simply parroting back an idiom that Daenerys knows, not giving her an innate truth about how a mummer actually owns the dragon.

Because I have a problem with assuming that "mummer's dragon" means "Varys' dragon". It doesn't really fit at all. Every other pseudonym Quaithe uses (Lion, Griffin, Dark Flame, Sun's Son) we know who they are striaght away, and the pseudonym unquestionably defines them.

But a mummer does not define Varys at all. We know Varys was apprenticed to a mummer's troupe, but he was sold to a wizard before he became an actual mummer. He know he knows tricks of mummery, but then Varys is accomplished in half a dozen other fields as well.

Quaithe more accurately could have said the Spider's Dragon, the Spymaster's dragon, the perfurmed seneschal's dragon or the Eunuch's dragon. Assuming that Quaithe is referring to Varys obliquely because of some field Varys once studied in, but less accurately describes him than any other title I gave, is not likely, since every other person she alludes to has such a clear relationship with their title. Calling Varys a mummer isn't clear, even by Quaithe's standards, and that's saying something.

Moreover, what about Illyrio? From what we see, Illyrio has as much, if not more, to do with the raising of Aegon than Varys did, and from what we know was never a mummer. Why isn't Aegon called the cheesemonger's dragon? It just doesn't seem to fit, given what we know about Aegon.

well this sums up what i was gonna say kudos to you. and yes i agree your english is quite good.

I totally agree! ALSO, why do some users constantly assume that Quaithe is there to HELP Dany? Or even reveal true information? Some of it might be true (the sun's son) and some of it may be false. When Dany got out of the HotU, she said, pretty emphatically, that a mummer's dragon was a cloth dragon on poles, etc. Was this an actual vision? Because I don't remember. And even if it was, that doesn't mean one should trust it.

Just because we haven't seen other alternatives so far doesn't mean that one won't come up later. I mean, isn't Martin famous for bringing in new characters pretty subtly? The thing is, I agree with the OP. The Blackfyres are true Targaryens on BOTH sides. Daena Targaryen had sex with Aegon the Unworthy and had Daemon Targaryen, and when he got the sword he changed his name to Blackfyre. He was a bastard, but still a true Targaryen. What would make more sense of a "mummer's dragon" (and I know this has been tossed around) is Illyrio having a baby with his "sweet Serra", who had silver-blonde hair and blue eyes. Illyrio has blue eyes and golden hair. That makes a pretty Targaryen-looking baby, if you ask me. He seemed strangely sentimental when he finally bid goodbye to Tyrion -- he wanted to see Young Griff -- and he knew what his favorite candy was. Also, Tyrion was wearing clothes that were fitted out for a little boy. I'm sure you know all this but my real question was...who was Perkin Warbeck? It sounds English. I'm learning a lot about British history, but I don't know it fully as of yet.

i so agree with these i share a much similar view oh and warbeck was a pretender to the English throne during the reign of King Henry VII of England. By claiming to be Richard of Shrewsbury, Duke of York, the younger son of King Edward IV, one of the Princes in the Tower, Warbeck was a significant threat to the newly established Tudor Dynasty, and gained support outside England. Henry VII declared that he was an impostor and after Warbeck's capture declared that he was a Fleming born in Tournai around 1474. thats why ppl say aegon will fail, although i kinda see aegon as henry the VII more but that just my opinion.

by the way i am for the camp that aegon is real, but if i am wrong then so be it, its just i felt it for how elia and her daughter died when i read the books i wanted one so bad to be alive to avenge them, thats why i like oberyn so much despite his awesoe attitude as well.

[Mladen]

(I'll recap a little bit, but even if you're familiar with all the theories about Aegon I invite you to read all of it)

since the very first appearence of the mummer's dragon in Dany's vision the more or less widely considered correct interpretation was mummer's dragon = fake dragon, someone that pretends (or other people pretend is) to be dragon, i.e. a Targaryen

So sure enough when Aegon appears readers, at least some of them and many on this forum, called bullshit on him, especially when later in ADWD Dany "meets" Quaithe that mentions the mummer's dragon between the people that are coming to Mereen and she should distrust. At that point in the book Aegon and co. are actually coming to Mereen and since Quaithe is more likely seeing it (and communicating with Dany) through a glass candle it's not a prophecy we're talking about, but the actual present state of things the Asshaite (I think I just made up the word) is seeing and reporting. There are some things about this warning that Quaithe give that strike me as odd, but I'm going to discuss them later, for now let's assume Aegon is the mummer's dragon, and this was just a almost crystal clear confirmation of our doubts by GRRM

well, what is Aegon if he's not a Targ? some clues (not particularly convincing to me but I recognize that the whole argument is solid and plausible) point to the possibilty that he's a Blackfyre, not a Targaryen

so a fake dragon, right? WRONG, the Blackfyres are consistently called the black DRAGONS, not the fake dragons, so a Blackfyre will still be a dragon, not a fake, ergo Aegon can't be the mummer's dragon if we take it to mean "fake dragon". Also a Blackfyre that doesn't want to usurp the throne per se but rather reunite the two lines is basically a Targaryen, I'm pretty sure that if one of the descendant of Daemon said to the current Targ king "ehi I'm sorry my grandgrandfather was an asshole, can I come back? I renounce to any claim and just want to live back in Westeros" he would have beenn allowed to. Aegon wants to marry Dany and basically rule together, and even when he starts to conquer the Stormlands the plan is never, not even for a moment, to seize the power for himself but rather to help Dany's conquest (and the fact that he's guided by Connington kind of assures that he will basically be a Targ - Dany - loyalist). Do you think Dany, who married a freaking mereneese to save a few lives, won't say yes to someone of the blood of the dragon to save a kingdom? of course she will marry him, and rule with him (that if the lad doesn't get killed first, which is not unlikely). It kinda sucks somehow that Martin pulled a deus ex machina out of a sleeve but the carachter is actually not that bad and Connington is pretty good, it could have been worse.

But I digress, back on topic! we have two choiches here

1) Aegon is not the mummer's dragon, that explains for example why Quaithe mentions all the coming dangers in pair (kraken and dark flame, griffin and lion, sun's son and mummer's dragon) but keeps the mummer's dragon far from the two he's supposed to come with. Also remember that she sees Connington and Tyrion in the glass candle (and we can assume she recognize them since has a good knowledge of Westeros) but she doesn't really have the means to know who's the young kid is, remember this is not a prophecy but a simple "report" of what she can see. Who's the mummer's dragon then? could be someone we haven't seen yet, could be the way Quaithe calls Brown Ben Plumm (who claims to have dragon blood) since she thinks he's the mummer's dragon (I think she knows of the prophecy, can't remember if the two talked about it though) and wants to warn Dany (could be a misunderstanding of the prophecy by Quaithe, in that case Aegon could be the "real" mummer's dragon - see below -)

2) Aegon is the mummer's dragon, but the meaning is not "a fake dragon". Can it mean "Vary's/Illiryo's dragon"? maybe, but he and Connington change the plan pretty soon and don't really seem to be the "dynamic duo's" creatures. My idea is that it means "the dragon cheered by the people" (foreshadowed in the little puppet play we heard is played in the streets of KL in, I believe, ACoK), meaning that this dragon (a real dragon) is the one that will be cheered by the people). How does it fit in the "slayer of lies" thing? IT DOESN'T and IT DOESN'T HAVE TO, since prophecies are treacherous bitches, and the Undying are not exactly the most reliable source and are exactly the kind of guys that would twist the words in a way that will make Dany misunderstand the visions. My idea is that what Dany sees is actually "true" but the words she hears are said by the undying ergo misleading, even if based on actual foreshadowing. In this particular case "slayer of lies" means "those are the fiercest opponents you will face", and we have Stannis (who competes for the place of Azor Ahai), the stone dragon (some kind of beast, maybe born or freed by the burning of Winterfell?) and let's say Aegon: in all three cases (except maybe the stone dragon) Dany doesn't really have to fight those (morrow not yet made...) but the Undying want her to, and so they use those words to let her think those three as a threat.

So to wrap it up my idea is that even if Aegon IS the mummer's dragon of the vision a) he doesn't have to be neither "fake" nor a Blackfyre (which won't be fake, but a black dragon instead of red one) and more likely means simply "the cheered dragon/ the dragon the people will love" (as opposed to Dany who I don't think the common folk in westeros will welcome) b ) he doesn't have to be an enemy of Dany, even if she may think (being tricked by the Undying) he is, I guess she will be hostile at first but, hoping in good counsel (Tyrion! he had to have those scenes with Aegon for a reason right?), will come to understand that a prophecy is, indeed, a treacherous bitch.

wow that was long, and I hope my english didn't make you cringe :) (I decided that if I ever start writing stories, and I have a few half developed projects, it will be in English rather than my native language)

First, your English is great, and I am always in trouble when I want to write something, since English is not my native too...

As for Aegon, I actually think he is Rhaegar`s son. Why? Because everyone else think he isn`t. Everyone is talking about Illyrio and how Aegon could be his son, and things about Blackfyre and all sort of stuff...The problem with that is that we have 2 very believable POV that tell us about his claim(Connington and Varys), but also we have that prophecy...I think it just means that Aegon is not good in playing Game of Thrones, so he has someone pulling strings for him(Varys, Illyrio, Connington, Lemore). Tyrion had noticed that boy is quite rush, that he has none patience and he can be easily beaten in process of claiming Iron throne.

Will peope cheer to him? Well, people did love Rhaegar and I think Elia was loved too(no evidence of that, by there is also nothing to point out otherwise), so their son would certainly be greeted with high regard and devotion. Remember, winter finally came, and people are starving and noone is caring about them...And if he would show up, claiming Seven kingdoms and promising them better life, people wouldn`t support him openly(if their masters and liege lords are against him), but they would certainly be hoping for his victory.

Alas, many things in ASOAIF are not certain. So, I believe we can`t say anything with certainty...It`s just our thoughts, dillemas, ideas, hopes, and POVs. Even I have a unbelievable theory about Aegon that is maybe completely wrong, but somehow works for me. That is point of theories, they always work for someone and for others they seem crazy...It`s all about GRRM and his idea about Aegon...wheter is he`s fake or not

[the Scorpion Knight]

So, I think instead of "fake" we should be thinking of "mummer's dragon" as "disguised dragon."

that's why I think he mummer's dragon could also be jon snow (a dragon pretending to be a wolf)

or araune waters (where the hell is he? me thinks he's on the way to dany pretending to be aegon

[Dragonfish]

As for Aegon, I actually think he is Rhaegar`s son. Why? Because everyone else think he isn`t.

I don't understand this argument. Most everyone else believes in R+L=J as well; does that make that theory wrong?

Everyone is talking about Illyrio and how Aegon could be his son, and things about Blackfyre and all sort of stuff...The problem with that is that we have 2 very believable POV that tell us about his claim(Connington and Varys)

Connington is getting his information from Varys, though. And Varys...well, needless to say, any theory that is based on trusting Varys' word is pretty much dead in the water.

[nQthing]

Jon snow can't be the mummer's dragon, who would the mummer be? Aegon is likely the mummer's dragon, and the mummer is probably Illyrio/varys. It might not be a bad thing to be the mummer's dragon, it could just imply that he's a dragon but somebody's pawn.

Aegon is a blackfyre, still a dragon but a different coat

Edit; all of this 'fake' or 'disguised ' dragon is silly. Quaithe said "mummer's dragon" not 'mummer dragon'

[Dragonfish]

Edit; all of this 'fake' or 'disguised ' dragon is silly. Quaithe said "mummer's dragon" not 'mummer dragon'

Quaithe is not the person who first mentions the mummer's dragon. It was actually Dany, who used the term to describe a vision she saw of a cloth dragon, i.e. a fake dragon.

Furthermore, the idea that "mummer's dragon" cannot imply fakeness because of the apostrophe "s" is simply silly. There are numerous expressions in English that contain an apostrophe "s" but nonetheless do not imply literal possession (i.e., "baker's dozen", "athlete's foot", etc.). And within the books themselves, we have a specific example where the term "mummer's" is used to imply fakeness (it's in ADWD, where Dany refers to Xaro's insincere tears as "mummer's tears"). So the idea that "mummer's dragon" cannot imply fakeness due to the apostrophe "s" simply does not withstand scrutiny.

[Mladen]

I don't understand this argument. Most everyone else believes in R+L=J as well; does that make that theory wrong?

I believe Jon is Lyanna`s son, but all this thing with Aegon is quite confusing, because both stories have strong evidences. Also, I believe in that, because there is no one who disputed it in the books. It`s all just us thinking he`s fake.We have read books, and we know how clues can be deceptive. There are dozen of clues surrounding his story, but what is decoy and what is real thing? I don`t think anyone is certain about that...Yes, my argument is maybe stupid, but the more I read books, and threads about his legitimacy, the more I am sure he`s real deal...

[Jaghen]

No one ever wondered if Daenerys herself was not the mummer's dragon ?

Everything she does is a great show, marrying Drogo, mothering the Stallion that will mount the World, burning the HotU, sacking cities, being at war with... well everyone.

She never was part of Varys' plans before hatching dragons, it's well possible he used her to attract Robert's Targ hatred and hide everything he was preparing for his true hope, Aegon (whether he is or isn't Rhaegar's son being irrelevant).

No one seems to care that the Golden Company broke a deal, or departed to... somewhere, because Dany catches every eye.

[Dragonfish]

No one ever wondered if Daenerys herself was not the mummer's dragon ?

A few people have, but it doesn't really hold up, because Quaithe says the mummer's dragon is coming to Dany and tells her not to trust him. This doesn't really make sense if Dany herself is the mummer's dragon.

[klyonawesome]

I like what everyone is saying. All are great points. I think we need to see how Young Griff is received by the people first. If they cheer for him I think he could be this cloth dragon, if not, who knows.

If he is the Mummer's dragon it's way to obvious! My hope is that we are lead to believe he is by the hints, but it turns out he isn't. Or all the people, AKA the Undying and Quaithe are lying to her or trying to confuse her. I don't think they can be trusted just yet. Defiantly not the Undying.

It would be lame to introduce this character, Griff/Connington as well, only to have them fulfill a prophecy and be done with them.

[Volantis]

(I'll recap a little bit, but even if you're familiar with all the theories about Aegon I invite you to read all of it)

since the very first appearence of the mummer's dragon in Dany's vision the more or less widely considered correct interpretation was mummer's dragon = fake dragon, someone that pretends (or other people pretend is) to be dragon, i.e. a Targaryen

So sure enough when Aegon appears readers, at least some of them and many on this forum, called bullshit on him, especially when later in ADWD Dany "meets" Quaithe that mentions the mummer's dragon between the people that are coming to Mereen and she should distrust. At that point in the book Aegon and co. are actually coming to Mereen and since Quaithe is more likely seeing it (and communicating with Dany) through a glass candle it's not a prophecy we're talking about, but the actual present state of things the Asshaite (I think I just made up the word) is seeing and reporting. There are some things about this warning that Quaithe give that strike me as odd, but I'm going to discuss them later, for now let's assume Aegon is the mummer's dragon, and this was just a almost crystal clear confirmation of our doubts by GRRM

well, what is Aegon if he's not a Targ? some clues (not particularly convincing to me but I recognize that the whole argument is solid and plausible) point to the possibilty that he's a Blackfyre, not a Targaryen

so a fake dragon, right? WRONG, the Blackfyres are consistently called the black DRAGONS, not the fake dragons, so a Blackfyre will still be a dragon, not a fake, ergo Aegon can't be the mummer's dragon if we take it to mean "fake dragon". Also a Blackfyre that doesn't want to usurp the throne per se but rather reunite the two lines is basically a Targaryen, I'm pretty sure that if one of the descendant of Daemon said to the current Targ king "ehi I'm sorry my grandgrandfather was an asshole, can I come back? I renounce to any claim and just want to live back in Westeros" he would have beenn allowed to. Aegon wants to marry Dany and basically rule together, and even when he starts to conquer the Stormlands the plan is never, not even for a moment, to seize the power for himself but rather to help Dany's conquest (and the fact that he's guided by Connington kind of assures that he will basically be a Targ - Dany - loyalist). Do you think Dany, who married a freaking mereneese to save a few lives, won't say yes to someone of the blood of the dragon to save a kingdom? of course she will marry him, and rule with him (that if the lad doesn't get killed first, which is not unlikely). It kinda sucks somehow that Martin pulled a deus ex machina out of a sleeve but the carachter is actually not that bad and Connington is pretty good, it could have been worse.

But I digress, back on topic! we have two choiches here

1) Aegon is not the mummer's dragon, that explains for example why Quaithe mentions all the coming dangers in pair (kraken and dark flame, griffin and lion, sun's son and mummer's dragon) but keeps the mummer's dragon far from the two he's supposed to come with. Also remember that she sees Connington and Tyrion in the glass candle (and we can assume she recognize them since has a good knowledge of Westeros) but she doesn't really have the means to know who's the young kid is, remember this is not a prophecy but a simple "report" of what she can see. Who's the mummer's dragon then? could be someone we haven't seen yet, could be the way Quaithe calls Brown Ben Plumm (who claims to have dragon blood) since she thinks he's the mummer's dragon (I think she knows of the prophecy, can't remember if the two talked about it though) and wants to warn Dany (could be a misunderstanding of the prophecy by Quaithe, in that case Aegon could be the "real" mummer's dragon - see below -)

2) Aegon is the mummer's dragon, but the meaning is not "a fake dragon". Can it mean "Vary's/Illiryo's dragon"? maybe, but he and Connington change the plan pretty soon and don't really seem to be the "dynamic duo's" creatures. My idea is that it means "the dragon cheered by the people" (foreshadowed in the little puppet play we heard is played in the streets of KL in, I believe, ACoK), meaning that this dragon (a real dragon) is the one that will be cheered by the people). How does it fit in the "slayer of lies" thing? IT DOESN'T and IT DOESN'T HAVE TO, since prophecies are treacherous bitches, and the Undying are not exactly the most reliable source and are exactly the kind of guys that would twist the words in a way that will make Dany misunderstand the visions. My idea is that what Dany sees is actually "true" but the words she hears are said by the undying ergo misleading, even if based on actual foreshadowing. In this particular case "slayer of lies" means "those are the fiercest opponents you will face", and we have Stannis (who competes for the place of Azor Ahai), the stone dragon (some kind of beast, maybe born or freed by the burning of Winterfell?) and let's say Aegon: in all three cases (except maybe the stone dragon) Dany doesn't really have to fight those (morrow not yet made...) but the Undying want her to, and so they use those words to let her think those three as a threat.

So to wrap it up my idea is that even if Aegon IS the mummer's dragon of the vision a) he doesn't have to be neither "fake" nor a Blackfyre (which won't be fake, but a black dragon instead of red one) and more likely means simply "the cheered dragon/ the dragon the people will love" (as opposed to Dany who I don't think the common folk in westeros will welcome) b ) he doesn't have to be an enemy of Dany, even if she may think (being tricked by the Undying) he is, I guess she will be hostile at first but, hoping in good counsel (Tyrion! he had to have those scenes with Aegon for a reason right?), will come to understand that a prophecy is, indeed, a treacherous bitch.

wow that was long, and I hope my english didn't make you cringe :) (I decided that if I ever start writing stories, and I have a few half developed projects, it will be in English rather than my native language)

Its too late for a third Blackfyre rebellion anyway

[Rice Tea]

Weren't the Blackfyres referred to as the Blackfyre Pretenders? Could imply that Targaryens didn't think of them as real dragons

[Buried Treasure]

A Pretender is somebody who is claiming a right to a throne occupied by somebody else. The Stuarts were called Pretenders to the English and Scottish thrones during the 18th century.

Stannis and Aegon are Pretenders because they claim they are the legitimate rulers and heir to the dynasty that should be on the throne . Robert (I think) wasn't a pretender as he wasn't claiming he had a legitmate claim to the Iron Throne - he knew Aerys was lawful king at the time but wanted to displace that dynasty because of the crimes it had committed.

The Blackfyres count as Pretenders because they were claiming that they, not the people on the throne, were the lawful heirs of Aegon IV. I think possibly the Targaryens did not consider the Blackfyres 'dragons' but the in the wars for the throne Daemon Blackfyre's legitimacy would not have been as important if he had not also claimed that he came before Daeron Targaryen in the succession.

[Damon_Tor]

Maybe JRRM is being meta about it, and Jon Snow is the Mummer's Dragon. All the readers think he's a Targaryn, after all. Maybe Quathe is just that genre aware.

Seriously though, I think Aegon is pretty clearly the Mummer's Dragon. I think saying that Blackfyre = authentic dragon and thus =! mummer's dragon is thinking too hard about it, especially since it hasn't even been confirmed that he's a Blackfyre.

[mitch176]

The Mummer's Dragon is UnViserys come to seek revenge on his sister. It is known.

[Florina Laufeyson]

Can it mean "Vary's/Illiryo's dragon"?

Thats how i took it. Because part of me really wants Aegon to be real. But if he is a Blackfyre, hes still Varys'/Illiryo's beast. They are the mummer(s) in this case.

It also brings into light that, if Aegon is indeed fake or a Blackfyre, he is not aware of it himself and he was raised believing he is Aegon VI.

[captsoap]

Mummers dragon is Quentyn imo.

[mitch176]

All the readers think he's a Targaryn, after all.

This winds me up as it simply isn't true. I'd happily bet over 50% of casual readers haven't even considered the idea. Sure everyone on here knows about the theory, but how many of us are there and how many people buy the books?

[Florina Laufeyson]

Mummers dragon is Quentyn imo.

Nah. Hes the "sun's son".

[Evil Jay]

I totally agree! ALSO, why do some users constantly assume that Quaithe is there to HELP Dany? Or even reveal true information? Some of it might be true (the sun's son) and some of it may be false. When Dany got out of the HotU, she said, pretty emphatically, that a mummer's dragon was a cloth dragon on poles, etc. Was this an actual vision? Because I don't remember. And even if it was, that doesn't mean one should trust it.

Just because we haven't seen other alternatives so far doesn't mean that one won't come up later. I mean, isn't Martin famous for bringing in new characters pretty subtly? The thing is, I agree with the OP. The Blackfyres are true Targaryens on BOTH sides. Daena Targaryen had sex with Aegon the Unworthy and had Daemon Targaryen, and when he got the sword he changed his name to Blackfyre. He was a bastard, but still a true Targaryen. What would make more sense of a "mummer's dragon" (and I know this has been tossed around) is Illyrio having a baby with his "sweet Serra", who had silver-blonde hair and blue eyes. Illyrio has blue eyes and golden hair. That makes a pretty Targaryen-looking baby, if you ask me. He seemed strangely sentimental when he finally bid goodbye to Tyrion -- he wanted to see Young Griff -- and he knew what his favorite candy was. Also, Tyrion was wearing clothes that were fitted out for a little boy. I'm sure you know all this but my real question was...who was Perkin Warbeck? It sounds English. I'm learning a lot about British history, but I don't know it fully as of yet.

This. The most compelling argument on the whole thread.