R+L=J v.41

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

The travel time does lead one to believe that someone told Ned pretty much exactly where the ToJ was. I agree with that. Travel times in the story have been fudged on more than one occasion, so it's not completely solid evidence. Still though, I think we can rule out the idea that Ned went 'searching' for Lyanna even if we can't be very sure about the exact travel times; someone told himf where she was.

I am a bit confused as to how you think Arthur Dayne or Gerold Hightower would have notified Ned of the location. Dayne and Whent were with Rhaegar when he abducted Lyanna, - apparently never leaving her side - and Hightower was at the ToJ from shortly before Rhaegar returned to KL. In fact, he was the one who was dispatched to recall Rhaegar to KL. I think we can rule them out, unless there is something I'm missing.

With Rhaegar, I tend to think that Robert would have made sure he was dead before he was done swinging he was war hammer, but the truth is that we've only been given glimpses into that moment. And of course, Robert was quite injured himself. This Rhaegar idea is one that I haven't seen before, and he is certainly one of the people who knew the location of the ToJ. Need more info, George!

What I was doing was a logic puzzle- if Ned knew exactly where to go, only certain people could have told him. Ignoring for the moment the huge problem of a possible unknown actor, which I mentioned but didn't address because it's well, unknown, the KG have to be on the list because they had the knowledge. I ruled them out because even without opportunity they would have needed an order or permission from Rhaegar to pass such information. As you point out, their opportunity was also very weak. I'm a huge Sherlock Holmes fan, his maxim was "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." I was trying to apply that here, although we do have some significant evidence gaps. SH also said "it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data" so I don't think he'd really appreciate what we're doing here ;)

[J. Stargaryen]

What I was doing was a logic puzzle- if Ned knew exactly where to go, only certain people could have told him. Ignoring for the moment the huge problem of a possible unknown actor, which I mentioned but didn't address because it's well, unknown, the KG have to be on the list because they had the knowledge. I ruled them out because even without opportunity they would have needed an order or permission from Rhaegar to pass such information. As you point out, their opportunity was also very weak. I'm a huge Sherlock Holmes fan, his maxim was "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." I was trying to apply that here, although we do have some significant evidence gaps. SH also said "it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data" so I don't think he'd really appreciate what we're doing here ;)

Okay, I see what you're saying. To me, it wasn't clear if you were aware of Dayne, Whent and Hightower's movements during the rebellion, which would preclude them from having contact with Stark. Well, short of a raven, but that also seems unlikely. Especially when you consider that they denied Ned access to the ToJ when he arrived.

BTW, I like Holmes too. My favorite incarnation being Hugh Laurie's Dr. House. :)

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Okay, I see what you're saying. To me, it wasn't clear if you were aware of Dayne, Whent and Hightower's movements during the rebellion, which would preclude them from having contact with Stark. Well, short of a raven, but that also seems unlikely. Especially when you consider that they denied Ned access to the ToJ when he arrived.

BTW, I like Holmes too. My favorite incarnation being Hugh Laurie's Dr. House. :)

I've seen the raven thing discussed at great length, but tend to dismiss it. Ned dashed from battle to battle for months before ToJ, and only stayed at KL and SE (where a raven could be sent) for the briefest of times.

I think all I managed to do here is rule out Lyanna and all 3 KG and introduce Rhaegar as a possibility. As you say, need more info George!

Love House too! Believe it or not my favorite is Robert Downey Jr, his character is actually the closest to the Holmes in the books of all the other "franchise" versions.

[Queen of Procrastination]

Thanks. While a blue winter rose sigil isn't a Stark direwolf, it also isn't the Targaryen three headed dragon. Then there is the possibility that you have Rickon eventually installed as the Lord of Winterfell, which would see him flying the Stark sigil. So maybe Jon's sigil is reflective of the Stark's of KL.

It seems to me that the Starks are identified as wolves. You have the Wild Wolf Brandon Stark, Ned is the Quiet Wolf, Benjen the Wolf Pup, Lyanna the Wolf Maid in the Knight of the Laughing Tree story. Then Robb is known as the Young Wolf, Bran the Winged Wolf. No one ever thinks to give Jon one of these names, not even the Bastard Wolf. What that tells me is that he's not a wolf, metaphorically speaking. Nor is he a dragon, BTW. However, at one point, he is identified as a 'blue flower'; aka, blue winter rose. As I said earlier when I was channeling show-Margaery; your sigil is your metaphor and your metaphor is your sigil. If Jon's metaphor is the blue winter rose, then I think there is a good chance his sigil will be, too. That is, if/when he gets one. Of course I could be wrong, but I'm just trying to follow the clues.

Can we concluede from that that Sansa isn´t a Stark either, because everyone calls her "little bird"? ;)

I like the idea that Rhaegar told Ned. IMO it´s the most solid one apart from the "Ashara told Ned" theory".

[Alia of the knife]

I think that while the motif of the unififcation of the Roses is a well crafted arguement, you have to go back to the Authors intent.

I think the Tudor reference does apply, however the characters function is different.

Since, I've taken it that Robert is Edward and Cersei Elizabeth Woodville, then for the end result of alliance between the challenger, it would make more sense for Jon to marry Myrcella, or even Shireen if Myrcella out of commission.

Then the next likely Candidate would be either Dany, or Arianne.

If you go back to Maggie the Frogs prophesy, and see how Cerseis fate is playing out, I think it's clear that Marge is Cersei's punishment. Just as Cersei was kept at Court in the hopes of seducing Rhaegar from Elia and replacing her, I think that is what Marge is trying to do to her.

Going all the way back to Robert, the equally scheming Tyrells were planning to replace Cersei with Margaery.

The ambitions of the Tyrells really smacks more of the Boleyns, and while drunken Dontos may have been on LF payroll, it doesn't mean he wasn't telling the truth when he warned Sansa about the Tyrells, telling her they were just Lannisters with Flowers.

They are sane, descreet, and better Branded, but nonetheless no different than the Lannisters, and that is the Lannisters and Cersei's karma.

At this point the thrice married Marge may not even be taken seriously, and with their own resources being gradually depleted, they will not long remain a powerful House.

And then theres Dornes reaction if Jon were to marry Margaery.

However in the end, it won't be Marge that takes down Cersei, so in the end I think that the Tyrells overplay their hand, and go the way of the Boleyns, with perhaps a union between Sansa, (perhaps on Jons order if he is King), and Willas to bring Highgarden to heel.

[J. Stargaryen]

I missed a couple of comments from earlier. Thanks, Alia. No worries, Isildur. :)

BTW, 'linkage of symbolism' is a good phrase for ASoIaF, I think. One example of this would be Jon looking like Arya, who looks like Lyanna. Arya is the link between Jon and Lyanna. So yeah, very nice phrasing.

Love your analysis and linkage of symbolisms.

Oh O.K, I think I understand you a bit better now, LOL, sorry :)

[J. Stargaryen]

Can we concluede from that that Sansa isn´t a Stark either, because everyone calls her "little bird"? ;)

I like the idea that Rhaegar told Ned. IMO it´s the most solid one apart from the "Ashara told Ned" theory".

Well, our little bird is with Littlefinger, whose sigil is a mockingbird. :)

[J. Stargaryen]

I think that while the motif of the unififcation of the Roses is a well crafted arguement, you have to go back to the Authors intent.

I think the Tudor reference does apply, however the characters function is different.

Since, I've taken it that Robert is Edward and Cersei Elizabeth Woodville, then for the end result of alliance between the challenger, it would make more sense for Jon to marry Myrcella, or even Shireen if Myrcella out of commission.

Then the next likely Candidate would be either Dany, or Arianne.

If you go back to Maggie the Frogs prophesy, and see how Cerseis fate is playing out, I think it's clear that Marge is Cersei's punishment. Just as Cersei was kept at Court in the hopes of seducing Rhaegar from Elia and replacing her, I think that is what Marge is trying to do to her.

Going all the way back to Robert, the equally scheming Tyrells were planning to replace Cersei with Margaery.

The ambitions of the Tyrells really smacks more of the Boleyns, and while drunken Dontos may have been on LF payroll, it doesn't mean he wasn't telling the truth when he warned Sansa about the Tyrells, telling her they were just Lannisters with Flowers.

They are sane, descreet, and better Branded, but nonetheless no different than the Lannisters, and that is the Lannisters and Cersei's karma.

At this point the thrice married Marge may not even be taken seriously, and with their own resources being gradually depleted, they will not long remain a powerful House.

And then theres Dornes reaction if Jon were to marry Margaery.

However in the end, it won't be Marge that takes down Cersei, so in the end I think that the Tyrells overplay their hand, and go the way of the Boleyns, with perhaps a union between Sansa, (perhaps on Jons order if he is King), and Willas to bring Highgarden to heel.

Sorry for the multiple posts, I somehow missed this too. Not sure if it's a browser issue or a brain issue. Anyway...

WRT to the bold - exactly! In fact, I couldn't have said it better myself. This is actually a point in favor of my theory, as well as one of its key ideas. If we're viewing the Stark-Lannister* conflict as ASoIaF's version of the WotR, then the conflict should theoretically end with a marriage alliance between a Stark and Lannister, right? Well, as Dontos alludes to, Margaery Tyrell is just a Lannister with a flower. I'm not talking about personality either, but rather position. Essentially, the Tyrells are left holding the Lannisters' bags or better yet, baggage. A sort of baton has been passed, that conveniently leaves a rose in the Red Keep - half way home to a WotR ending.

It's stuff like this that makes me think the J+M idea has a shot. Whenever confronted with what should ostensibly be an obstacle, this theory seems to have little or no problem providing an answer.

*Please note that I'm referring to the faux-Baratheons as Lannisters.

[MtnLion]

While I like the idea that Ned may have learned prior tot he fall of King's Landing where his sister was from Rhaegar or whoever, I don't think that the dream sequence supports that idea. Ned very carefully mentions that he has been looking for the white swords at each battle, including the lifting of the siege at Storm's End. We know that Hightower was sent to retrieve Rhaegar, and we know that the prince did not travel without a Kingsguard. This is a strong suggestion that Hightower traveled a path three times, once to find the prince, once to escort him to King's Landing, and once to return to the tower. Ned may have had people looking for clues about the white swords, one of which could easily turn up an account of Hightower's travels. It seems certain that Ned is going to travel swiftly when he selects his party, suggesting a particular destination. But the conversation at the tower says that Ned was still looking for them when he arrived at Storm's End.

[J. Stargaryen]

While I like the idea that Ned may have learned prior tot he fall of King's Landing where his sister was from Rhaegar or whoever, I don't think that the dream sequence supports that idea. Ned very carefully mentions that he has been looking for the white swords at each battle, including the lifting of the siege at Storm's End. We know that Hightower was sent to retrieve Rhaegar, and we know that the prince did not travel without a Kingsguard. This is a strong suggestion that Hightower traveled a path three times, once to find the prince, once to escort him to King's Landing, and once to return to the tower. Ned may have had people looking for clues about the white swords, one of which could easily turn up an account of Hightower's travels. It seems certain that Ned is going to travel swiftly when he selects his party, suggesting a particular destination. But the conversation at the tower says that Ned was still looking for them when he arrived at Storm's End.

Rhaegar's section of the app makes it seems as though once Hightower arrived at the ToJ, Rhaegar ordered him to stay there.

Lord Robert, Lyanna's betrothed, was consumed by the need to avenge himself on Rhaegar, but the prince could not be found for the first months of the war. Rumor had it that he was in the south with Lyanna, at a place he called the Tower of Joy, near the red mountains of Dorne. But eventually his father sent Ser Gerold Hightower to recall Rhaegar to his duties, though Rhaegar ordered Ser Gerold, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell to keep guard over Lyanna in the south.

[corbon]

and we know that the prince did not travel without a Kingsguard.

No, we don't know that (AFAIK?). We know that the KING does not travel without a KG, and we know that Rhaegar usually travelled with Arthur Dayne, but I don't believe there is any strict requirement for Rhaegar to have a KG with him.

ETA: in fact, didn't he usually spend his time at Summerhall alone?

This is a strong suggestion that Hightower traveled a path three times, once to find the prince, once to escort him to King's Landing, and once to return to the tower.

Even if he did have the requirement to travel with a KG, this does not follow as a logical requirement. Another KG may have travelled south and returned with Rhaegar (Darry could have spent time gathering eth scattered loyalist forces after returning with Rahegar, for example), or one of the other two could have done the return trip.

Frankly I don't beleive in any return round trip. Its just unnecessary, and a bit silly as a physical thing to do (I don't mean 'silly' as an idea, as such).

[corbon]

Rhaegar's section of the app makes it seems as though once Hightower arrived at the ToJ, Rhaegar ordered him to stay there.

The app is just an accumulation of the stuff we know. Some things, like this, may well be assumptions that aren't egregarious enough errors for GRR M to notice and correct (if they are wrong), other things may be deliberately wrong because the wrong information is the best we currently have in the series.

It is NOT an authority.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

While I like the idea that Ned may have learned prior tot he fall of King's Landing where his sister was from Rhaegar or whoever, I don't think that the dream sequence supports that idea. Ned very carefully mentions that he has been looking for the white swords at each battle, including the lifting of the siege at Storm's End. We know that Hightower was sent to retrieve Rhaegar, and we know that the prince did not travel without a Kingsguard. This is a strong suggestion that Hightower traveled a path three times, once to find the prince, once to escort him to King's Landing, and once to return to the tower. Ned may have had people looking for clues about the white swords, one of which could easily turn up an account of Hightower's travels. It seems certain that Ned is going to travel swiftly when he selects his party, suggesting a particular destination. But the conversation at the tower says that Ned was still looking for them when he arrived at Storm's End.

My opinion of that part of the dream sequence is that it is a symbolic exchange (leitwortstil) where a phrase is repeated over and over to emphasize an important theme. In this case "I looked for you" is emphasizing that the KG in fact stayed at the ToJ with Lyanna and her child. As has been discussed in these threads at length, this is a clear indication that they were following Rhaegar's order to guard his (third) heir. Because it is symbolic in nature and also, as Martin cautions us, part of a fever dream, I don't think we have to assume it is either a literal or complete representation of the conversation that occurred. Not that it couldn't be, but it doesn't have to be, if you know what I mean.

I don't think we have enough evidence to rule out Ashara or another third party as the source of information, but I do think we have enough to assume that there was a source and that the source could also have been Rhaegar himself.

[J. Stargaryen]

The app is just an accumulation of the stuff we know. Some things, like this, may well be assumptions that aren't egregarious enough errors for GRR M to notice and correct (if they are wrong), other things may be deliberately wrong because the wrong information is the best we currently have in the series.

It is NOT an authority.

You might have a good point, but since you're not an authority on the subject of the app, I'm not sure if I should believe you.

Anyway, I was merely attempting to provide some information that MtnLion may not have been aware of.

[JMJ]

Hi - noob here. Having just finished ADWD a few weeks ago, I'm glad to have found this site to bide time before WoW comes out.

I decided to make my first post onto this continuing thread because for me (like lots of folks, I know) R+L=J addresses IMO the central character of ASoIaF, namely Jon Snow. Obviously a gazillion posts over 6+ years have been made on this topic, but having perused a significant portion of the archived posts, I thought I'd add one observation that I haven't seen mentioned. Apologies if I'm stating the obvious or if indeed these have been mentioned!

I've seen lots of posts re: why Ned kept Jon's identity, presumably as R+L=J, a secret. To me, there are two explanations, one obvious, one likely but not confirmed. For the latter, it's very likely Lyanna, as she lay dying, told Ned to keep the baby's identity secret and to raise the baby as his own. As to the obvious reason, it seems Ned would not want it to be know, especially to his best bud Robert, that he's raising the spawn of Robert's love and rival. Moreover, if Robert ever found out the son of Rhaegar were living, the first thing he'd do would be to try to off him. Remember how he wanted to kill Dany in GoT?

And thanks to all for interesting conversation!

[Alia of the knife]

Sorry for the multiple posts, I somehow missed this too. Not sure if it's a browser issue or a brain issue. Anyway...

WRT to the bold - exactly! In fact, I couldn't have said it better myself. This is actually a point in favor of my theory, as well as one of its key ideas. If we're viewing the Stark-Lannister* conflict as ASoIaF's version of the WotR, then the conflict should theoretically end with a marriage alliance between a Stark and Lannister, right? Well, as Dontos alludes to, Margaery Tyrell is just a Lannister with a flower. I'm not talking about personality either, but rather position. Essentially, the Tyrells are left holding the Lannisters' bags or better yet, baggage. A sort of baton has been passed, that conveniently leaves a rose in the Red Keep - half way home to a WotR ending.

It's stuff like this that makes me think the J+M idea has a shot. Whenever confronted with what should ostensibly be an obstacle, this theory seems to have little or no problem providing an answer.

*Please note that I'm referring to the faux-Baratheons as Lannisters.

I do love your references to history and as I said, symbols.

If you do like that sort of analysis, come to our Vol. 2 GOT Re-read thread if you have time.

I probably should have clarified myself this morning, (was in a hurry ), but I think it's more about the "bloodline credibility," which was why Robert was chosen over the other Lords.

His claim was "stronger," (more credible), due to his own "dragons" blood, both from the originator of the Berantheon line, which is Valaryian and rumored bastard Targaryen, and then through his Grandmother, who was a Targaryen.

Though Henry Tudor won on the battlefield, he still married Elizabeth of York, (bastard or not), for the crediblitliy of his childrens blood claim, unifying and solidifying the two Houses through their children, hopefully putting to rest in future claims to the throne.

So, in this world, if we follow the same process, despite Jons heritage and most likely victory on the battlefield, he may still need the credibility of a wife with dragons blood for their children to be well and truly situated on the Iron Throne.

[Techelles]

Thank god none of this will ever happen.

Thank god, indeed.

While I like the idea that Ned may have learned prior tot he fall of King's Landing where his sister was from Rhaegar or whoever, I don't think that the dream sequence supports that idea. Ned very carefully mentions that he has been looking for the white swords at each battle, including the lifting of the siege at Storm's End. We know that Hightower was sent to retrieve Rhaegar, and we know that the prince did not travel without a Kingsguard. This is a strong suggestion that Hightower traveled a path three times, once to find the prince, once to escort him to King's Landing, and once to return to the tower. Ned may have had people looking for clues about the white swords, one of which could easily turn up an account of Hightower's travels. It seems certain that Ned is going to travel swiftly when he selects his party, suggesting a particular destination. But the conversation at the tower says that Ned was still looking for them when he arrived at Storm's End.

I agree. I've never been very keen on the idea of Ned cradling a dying Rhaegar in his arms, and this is a big reason why. The whole conversation in front of the tower doesn't make a whole lot of sense if Rhaegar was Ned's source. And if we're going to base so much of the case for Jon's legitimacy on the particulars of that conversation, I think we'd be unwise to start questioning it now.

Also, can one even talk with one's chest caved in?

[Zupoleon]

Thank god, indeed.

I agree. I've never been very keen on the idea of Ned cradling a dying Rhaegar in his arms, and this is a big reason why. The whole conversation in front of the tower doesn't make a whole lot of sense if Rhaegar was Ned's source. And if we're going to base so much of the case for Jon's legitimacy on the particulars of that conversation, I think we'd be unwise to start questioning it now.

Also, can one even talk with one's chest caved in?

Not much more than whispering a woman's name before dying...

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Thank god, indeed.

I agree. I've never been very keen on the idea of Ned cradling a dying Rhaegar in his arms, and this is a big reason why. The whole conversation in front of the tower doesn't make a whole lot of sense if Rhaegar was Ned's source. And if we're going to base so much of the case for Jon's legitimacy on the particulars of that conversation, I think we'd be unwise to start questioning it now.

Also, can one even talk with one's chest caved in?

Heh, good point about the chest wound.

I never pictured any cradling though. All that would really be necessary is for the battle swirl to bring them together at some point long enough for Rhaegar to say half a dozen or so words to Ned. If you check out all my posts, I've tried to lay out that Rhaegar indeed is the only person who knew Lyanna's location that we have clear evidence crossed Ned's path. While I haven't read all 40 incarnations of this thread, I have read the last five or so and never saw anyone mention that. I also think there's a pretty good argument to be made about interpretation of the KG exchange at ToJ not needing to be literal. Having said that, all I can do is repeat that we really don't have enough evidence to posit a water tight theory for either Rhaegar, Ashara or an unknown third party being the source of Ned's apparent knowledge of where to find his sister.

As usual we end up at the brick wall of needing GRRM to deliver more information ;)

[SFDanny]

To the question about how Ned finds out Lyanna's location, I've always centered my speculation on a few known suspects while acknowledging it may well be from an unknown source. The usuals suspects I think have dwindled down to a much shorter list after the publication of ADwD. Ser Barristan was always high on the list, but I think his point of view chapters run in the direction of him not knowing about the Tower of Joy and Lyanna's presence there - most certainly not the presence of Rhaegar's son. Varys can't be ruled out but it seems rather odd that Ned thinks of him in such negative terms when he first meets him if the spider gave him such important information. Rhaegar, I admit, I hadn't even considered, and I still don't consider him a possible source. Not a hint that he had a dying conversation with Ned or that he has any reason to disclose Lyanna's location to the rebels he hid it from for so long. Sorry, doesn't make sense. No, I think Ned learned about Lyanna after he gets to Storm's End. Someone there told him and he travels as fast as he can, in as much secrecy as he can, to her location as soon as he knows. That fits Ned, and that fits the story as we know it.

So who are the likely candidates at Storm's End? Lord Tyrell or Redwyne? Possibly, but how do they know? No, I think it is still the best theory regarding characters we know that Ashara is there and she tells Ned. She has the connections to know, and she has the knowledge of Ned to entrust him with the information. There are problems with this idea that make me uncomfortable, however. Namely why did Ashara tell Ned a secret that she would have been sworn to protect? I'm not sure her relationship with Ned, or his relationship to Lyanna explains it.

Which gets me to the unknown sources. We may well find out from Howland or some such source that Ned learned it from a commoner who has knowledge of the location because he or she helped with the supply or the care of the tower. This actually grows as a possibility as I've considered it over the years. Not the character centric mystery's answer we all look for, but quite possibly the most likely answer.