Who poisoned the locusts?

[butterbumps!]

GG and Hizdahr are the most likely culprits and the locusts were not meant to kill , but to cause Dany to abort if she should be pregnant by Daario ( and there are many hints that she was ).

I had eliminated "non-lethal poison by Hiz" earlier, but after seeing your abortifacient angle, I think this is a real possibility. That's actually a really clever explanation, so nice find.

I think this one can stay on the table even if there aren't hints that they know or suspect that Dany's pregnant. I think it's enough that they all know she's been sleeping with Daario and might have done this as a preemptive measure. It's what that ritual gyno exam custom is about (well, checking fertility and making sure the bride is not already pregnant).

[LovinRC]

Hizdar, worst husband ever.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Hizdar, worst husband ever.

My wife might disagree.

[Buckthorn]

Barristan Selmy did it, he tried to stop Dany.

[Adam Feldman]

The answer to this hinges on whether that poison was supposed to be fatal. If so, then you're running into this same problem with the Shavepate as a suspect. Would he chance a fatal poison if Dany could eat it? According to you and the essay, no

Hello, just to clarify here -- I do believe Shavepate was perfectly okay with killing anyone in the box with the poisoned locusts, including Dany, because his goal was to blow up the peace. Dany had been rejecting Shavepate's advice for months, had just let him be fired, and had now welcomed Shavepate's hated enemy into her bed. It's been said that he is no longer welcome at court. So what continued benefit is he getting from Dany, exactly? Now, if Dany dies, I think Shavepate believes he can maneuver Barristan and the 8,000 Unsullied into exacting revenge -- on Hizdahr, the nobles, and the rest of Shavepate's enemies. (Because this is exactly what he ends up doing, even though Dany disappears rather than dies.) Whether Dany dies, Hizdahr dies, or Belwas eats the whole batch, mistrust and suspicion are sown, the peace is weakened, and Shavepate can use that to his advantage.

Speculations on the food preferences of various characters are unconvincing to me. Even if Dany doesn't like insects (or Hizdahr doesn't like spices, as he later claims), it remains perfectly possible that either could have tried a locust or two, for the sake of politeness. I am also skeptical of any arguments that the poisoner wanted to poison someone but have him or her survive. Too much is simply left to chance in this scenario -- one can't know how someone's body would react, or how many he or she would eat. If you put poisoned food in the box, I think you've gotta be okay with people in the box dying from it.

The essay in question presupposes that the peace brokered by the marriage to Hiz was meant to be everlasting… that essay builds the case out of the presumption that Hiz has no reason to wish ill to Dany once peace was brokered, which is wrong.

I must say, this strange summary makes me wonder whether you even read the essay! This part on the locusts makes no "presumptions" whatsoever about "everlasting peace" and certainly does not argue that Hizdahr "has no reason to wish ill to Dany."

Instead, my arguments focus on the timing and setting of the attempt -- that it comes so soon after the peace deal where Hizdahr had won unfettered access to Dany's court (presumably giving him freedom to make any number of future assassination attempts), that the attempt is so public and in a situation with the potential to spiral out of control very quickly, that it doesn't seem to fit with the Harpy's previous actions, and that he has no apparent patsy:

“It was your pit, your box, your seats. Sweet wine and soft cushions, figs and melons and honeyed locusts. You provided all. You urged Her Grace to try the locusts but never tasted one yourself.” (BARRISTAN III)

It would be as if the Tyrells supplied the wine for the Purple Wedding, poured it for Joffrey, and told Joffrey to drink up, in full view of the Kingsguard.

[butterbumps!]

I must say, this strange summary makes me wonder whether you even read the essay! This part on the locusts makes no "presumptions" whatsoever about "everlasting peace" and certainly does not argue that Hizdahr "has no reason to wish ill to Dany."

Instead, my arguments focus on the timing and setting of the attempt -- that it comes so soon after the peace deal where Hizdahr had won unfettered access to Dany's court (presumably giving him freedom to make any number of future assassination attempts), that the attempt is so public and in a situation with the potential to spiral out of control very quickly, that it doesn't seem to fit with the Harpy's previous actions, and that he has no apparent patsy:

You eliminated Hiz as a suspect rather hastily, and led off with this:

Dany had just agreed to a peace deal giving the Harpy and Meereenese nobles much of what they seemed to want — Hizdahr as co-ruler and a re-opening of the fighting pits. Hizdahr and his men had just won unfettered access to Dany and her court. Why then have her murdered so publicly, right then, rather than in private?

as rationale, which is what I summarized (admittedly a bit cavalierly)-- you led off with the notion that the peace was rather genuine and Hiz was appeased.

I'd read it previously. As a side note, discussing the essays via link to the blog is not exactly the best way to debate this on the forum. This was kind of the issue in that other thread about the Jon ones-- it's hugely unwieldy to both refer to them and use dynamic quote functions to external links. I get that you come onto this forum to defend what others are saying about them, but I think it would be doing everyone, inclusing yourself, a service to just post the essays themselves on here in the threads they're being discussed in so there's clear reference and everyone's literally on the same page.

Anyway, I actually think it's in Hiz's better interests to have Dany killed in public and not in some private chamber, so I disagree with eliminating him for that and other reasons you listed.

[Fire Eater]

Don't you think Skahaz would be smarter than this ?

Skahaz hasn't been described as smart. His plans are simple-minded, "we just kill Hizdahr." He would have done the act out of desperation like Marsh stabbing Jon while the Sons of the Harpy have shown to be precise compared to this seemingly half-assed attempt.

[Adam Feldman]

Anyway, I actually think it's in Hiz's better interests to have Dany killed in public and not in some private chamber

Not just "in public." "In public, so darn soon after the wedding, in the middle of a peace ceremony between Yunkai and Meereen, in his pit, in his box, with food that everyone knew he provided, after he himself suggested Dany eat the poisonous food, and ate none himself, right in front of Barristan and her other supporters, some of whom are armed."

[butterbumps!]

Not just "in public." "In public, so darn soon after the wedding, in the middle of a peace ceremony between Yunkai and Meereen, in his pit, in his box, with food that everyone knew he provided, after he himself suggested Dany eat the poisonous food, and ate none himself, right in front of Barristan and her other supporters, some of whom are armed."

Just to be clear, I don't not think it's the Shavepate. I simply disagreed with what was presented as your arguments for eliminating Hiz. None of the scenarios fit perfectly as it currently seems, nor do any of the 4 scenarios mention in this thread deserve to be eliminated quite yet.

Here is support for Hiz as the poisoner though:

The fact that this peace and concessions had just occurred superficially removes motive from Hiz. To the outside world, he's the consensual consort of Dany, and has received a boon that would remove him from at least superficial suspicion in the event of her untimely death. So there's a little armor here.

The entrance of the dragon was an unforeseen interruption no matter who is responsible for the poison. Because of this interruption, we have no idea how the poisoner was planning to play this out in the event Dany dropped dead. That means we don't know if Hiz had some weird alibi. For example, if Hiz was the poisoner, Dany died and others looked to him, he could just as easily point to someone else as the infiltrator. He could even claim it was probably meant for him because he like spicy food, and that he escaped a likely death by sheer luck (which is the Tyrell party line when they feign outrage about how Marg could have been poisoned too!). I mean, the Tyrells, who supplied Joffrey's wedding wine and were actually the poisoners, weren't clearly identified as the poisoners at that event simply because they brought the wine.

Further to this, I think there's something incredibly weird about Hiz not eating the locusts despite our seeing him eat spicy food in the past and considering these a real treat. This seems to imply that if he's not behind the poisoning, he's at least complicit or was tipped off beforehand. This doesn't preclude the Shavepate being behind it; it does, however, suggest that Hiz has some knowledge that this was about to happen.

A major problem here is that we don't honestly know what the objective or target of the poisoning was. If Hiz wanted to kill Dany, the fact that this was in a public arena isn't a strike against him as a culprit. Depending who he was planning to frame, he could have used this as a bullshit excuse to basically usurp the throne for himself in a way that didn't look like usurpation (because she died accidentally and in front of a ton of witnesses!), which is pretty much what he did after Dany goes missing anyway. This is pretty much why Olenna poisons Joffrey in the midst of a huge feast with a ton of witnesses, using her own wine even.

I said before I don't happen to have a horse in this race, but I tend to like Hiz as a "party in the know" (the Marg) and one or two other figures as the Olenna/ LFs of the operation.

[Ygrain]

Just to be clear, I don't not think it's the Shavepate. I simply disagreed with what was presented as your arguments for eliminating Hiz. None of the scenarios fit perfectly as it currently seems, nor do any of the 4 scenarios mention in this thread deserve to be eliminated quite yet.

Here is support for Hiz as the poisoner though:

The fact that this peace and concessions had just occurred superficially removes motive from Hiz. To the outside world, he's the consensual consort of Dany, and has received a boon that would remove him from at least superficial suspicion in the event of her untimely death. So there's a little armor here.

The entrance of the dragon was an unforeseen interruption no matter who is responsible for the poison. Because of this interruption, we have no idea how the poisoner was planning to play this out in the event Dany dropped dead. That means we don't know if Hiz had some weird alibi. For example, if Hiz was the poisoner, Dany died and others looked to him, he could just as easily point to someone else as the infiltrator. He could even claim it was probably meant for him because he like spicy food, and that he escaped a likely death by sheer luck (which is the Tyrell party line when they feign outrage about how Marg could have been poisoned too!). I mean, the Tyrells, who supplied Joffrey's wedding wine and were actually the poisoners, weren't clearly identified as the poisoners at that event simply because they brought the wine.

Further to this, I think there's something incredibly weird about Hiz not eating the locusts despite our seeing him eat spicy food in the past and considering these a real treat. This seems to imply that if he's not behind the poisoning, he's at least complicit or was tipped off beforehand. This doesn't preclude the Shavepate being behind it; it does, however, suggest that Hiz has some knowledge that this was about to happen.

A major problem here is that we don't honestly know what the objective or target of the poisoning was. If Hiz wanted to kill Dany, the fact that this was in a public arena isn't a strike against him as a culprit. Depending who he was planning to frame, he could have used this as a bullshit excuse to basically usurp the throne for himself in a way that didn't look like usurpation (because she died accidentally and in front of a ton of witnesses!), which is pretty much what he did after Dany goes missing anyway. This is pretty much why Olenna poisons Joffrey in the midst of a huge feast with a ton of witnesses, using her own wine even.

I said before I don't happen to have a horse in this race, but I tend to like Hiz as a "party in the know" (the Marg) and one or two other figures as the Olenna/ LFs of the operation.

That's my take, as well that whatever the poison was supposed to do, Hiz had known and was instructed not to eat; he wasn't a poisoner himself but was complicit.

Plus, I'd like to point out again that the effect on Belwas who overdosed himself may not be the normal/intended effect of the poison. It is quite possible that in a normal dose, its effect would appear after many hours, during which some other schemes would have been under way.

[BitsOfBrains]

I think it wasn't even poison.

My theory is that it was a sort of powdered "moon tea".

Hizdar didn't want Danys first born son to pop out with gold teeth and a douchebag attitude.

The way i see it going down is something like this.

Hizdahr knows that Dany is Daarios whore, so he tries to figure out some way to make sure she isn't pregnant. He can't just tell her to drink moon tea, so he has someone give the "poison" to the confectioner. That guy puts it on the locusts.

Dany would have had one or two, flushed the system, and no one would have been the wiser.

If she had miscarried/aborted, he could be so sad that his "trueborn heir" had been lost.

If she had not been pregnant, she would have been sick for a little while and recovered.

It would have been a lot like when they tricked Lysa into drinking the moon tea.

Skahaz Mo Kondaq is the man, if he had wanted to poison someone, they wouldn't have survived.

We don't know how big the bowl was, but whoever the "poisoner" was wouldn't expect Dany to scarf down the whole bowl. She is little and not a big eater, so maybe she would have had 2-3. Belwas may have eaten 10-20 times the expected dose and still survived.

Belwas is tough, but no one is tough enough to survive 10x a lethal dose of poison.

Whatever the "poison" was, it wasn't supposed to be lethal, and "Lipton Powdered Moon Tea" is my guess.

[Adam Feldman]

snip

I just don't buy how Hizdahr could ever expect to leave the box alive if Dany drops dead after he feeds her poisoned food that he supplied and is observed telling her to eat it while eating none himself. The idea that his two-day-old marriage, or some smooth talking, could protect him from those extremely damning circumstances seems a serious stretch to me.

The LF/Tyrell plot is different in so many ways -- all of them show how it makes sense, and show how Hizdahr as poisoner does not make sense. Tyrion was planned as a patsy. The jousting dwarfs were meant to provoke a fight between Tyrion and Joffrey. The poison was only dropped into Joffrey's chalice after the fight was provoked (rather than left sitting around for anyone to consume at any time). The Tyrells drank the wine, rather than conspicuously deciding not to have any. The murder weapon was on the head of Tyrion's wife. The setting was a royal court with "civilized" people, not a fighting pit with thousands of screaming Meereenese, including many freedmen, who are there to see some violence. Wouldn't one expect a riot of the freedmen if their mhysa drops dead? What of the Unsullied, still the most powerful fighting force in Meereen? To me, chaos and slaughter seems like such a likely outcome of a fighting pit poisoning that the poisoner pretty much has to want that outcome, ergo, the Shavepate.

Also, I am not sure where you are getting that Hizdahr has "a fetish for hot foods." Is it from: "The noble Hizdahr’s favorite meal, dog in honey, stuffed with prunes and peppers"? Peppers can be mild or hot. Unless I am missing something, I don't believe it is ever mentioned whether the Meereenese peppers are hot.

Plus, I'd like to point out again that the effect on Belwas who overdosed himself may not be the normal/intended effect of the poison. It is quite possible that in a normal dose, its effect would appear after many hours, during which some other schemes would have been under way.

Then why bother to poison her in public in front of 10,000 people at all? Hizdahr sleeps with her, so if he has a slow-acting poison, he can dose her with it at any time, and profess innocence.

[BitsOfBrains]

Perhaps Hizdahr even KNEW she was pregnant i.e. had someone watching/reporting on her periods, and based on the dates knew he couldn't be the father.

[Nictarion]

Barristan Selmy did it, he tried to stop Dany.

Lies! Take that statement back.

[bemused]

first off, Bumps!..thanks for the nod above, I hope some people got to read all the food stuff on the last page ..it took me all afternoon to reconstruct it , and I'd be surprised if GRRM went to all that trouble for nothing , though obviously we can't truly know his reasons yet. :D

Generally , and in random reply to a lot of the above. Skahaz has not been portrayed as being stupid by and means, he's ruthless and direct at times, but not unsubtle, if he can retain control of the BB's and come and go at will in Dany's pyramid not only after the wedding, but after Dany has left Meereen. I'm sure he is looking to settle old scores and gain power for his house.. but I don't see it being in the way that has been described in the essays in question..which though related,were not the topic here, to begin with.

BitsofBrains..I think it's not impossible that the GG could have her little innocents keeping their eyes and ears open for Dany to show signs of menstruating..Her handmaids washing or disposing of bloody rags or sponges,or whatever.. They ( the "poisoners") would want to be certain she took the dose anyway,whether they knew for sure or not ...but yes , they could know.

Why wouldn't Hizdahr ( and /or the GG) strike in private ?.. For one thing , while they are trying to sideline Dany ( or sideline and eventually eliminate her) , to this point, she is still the Queen .. we haven't seen her go to them to be entertained ..they come to her ( though it may rankle). Therefore meals or snacks they share would be prepared by her cooks..as we've seen. If they arrived bringing some tasty tidbit specifically for her , everyone would know where it came from.

Hizdahr may sleep with her, when she allows , but he doesn't live in her apartments.

I'll check, but I believe the locusts were prepared by a caterer hired by Hizdahr ..not his own, or his family's cooks.( Why not ?)... If the object, as I believe, was simply to ensure she would miscarry if she was pregnant ,while other nibblers seemed to suffer from food poisoning , the blame would fall on the poor expendable caterer..who , I'm sure, would be punished severely...and, oops!.. before he could point a finger elsewhere.

ETA: We haven't yet seen Barristan's interrogation of the caterer.

[Nictarion]

Hizdahr knows that Dany is Daarios whore, so he tries to figure out some way to make sure she isn't pregnant.

Dany isn't a whore. She's slept with one person by choice, one by force, and one to make peace for a city.

[bemused]

Daario is her paramour.. Hizdahr her politically negotiated spouse..she's their Queen...

For shame. ;)

[Iona]

first off, Bumps!..thanks for the nod above, I hope some people got to read all the food stuff on the last page ..it took me all afternoon to reconstruct it , and I'd be surprised if GRRM went to all that trouble for nothing , though obviously we can't truly know his reasons yet. :D

Now I almost feel guilty for asking more info on the pregnancy thing, but I'm really glad you took the time to list it all. That kind of symbolic stuff is something I'd probably never be able see on my own, so I need other people to point it out to me. It's certainly food for thought and I'd say that at this point I'm open to the possibility that Hizdahr and co. could have been trying to cleanse out possible little Daarios. I'm not disregarding other theories, but the abortification angle is a nice addition to all the other schemes that might have been in play.

Thank you ever so much for your efforts!

[Ygrain]

The point about someone taking note of Dany's cycle is quite important - at the end of ADWD, she seems to have a miscarriage and she cannot recall the date of her last period. From the way she tries to remember, we can infer that she skipped at least one, and while she might not have realized it, due to all the problems she was contending, others would have, especially if they are keeping an eye on her.

[Adam Feldman]

I'll check, but I believe the locusts were prepared by a caterer hired by Hizdahr ..not his own, or his family's cooks.( Why not ?)... If the object, as I believe, was simply to ensure she would miscarry if she was pregnant ,while other nibblers seemed to suffer from food poisoning , the blame would fall on the poor expendable caterer..who , I'm sure, would be punished severely...and, oops!.. before he could point a finger elsewhere. ETA: We haven't yet seen Barristan's interrogation of the caterer.

The "confectioner" story is quite dubious too. Shavepate tells the tale that "Hizdahr's confectioner" was forced to supply poisoned locusts because the Sons of the Harpy kidnapped his young daughter. Really, the king of Meereen can't get some poisoned food cooked up without kidnapping and murder? And then the Harpy killed the kidnapped daughter anyway despite the risk that the poisoner would then talk and implicate them? The tale reeks of "I'm gonna make up the worst-sounding story I can to convince Selmy that the enemy are ruthless thugs impossible to reason with, and torture some random dude into a false confession, as is my modus operandi."