Bakker XXI: Attack of the Maximum Fun-Fun Ultra Super Happy People

[Armitage]

So he decides to roll the dice on the whole thing. He doesn't survive because he uses the logos to find the way out of the trap, he survives because of a miracle.

I absolutely agree with the first sentence. Kellhus knows this is a huge gamble. But I'm less sure that it works because of a miracle than because of mere luck.

But I've discounted the miraculous in PoN before, and this may be a blind spot of mine. I'll reread the closing sections of TWP with that in mind.

[Gormenghast]

I'm slowly going on my way and finished The Warrior-Prophet: http://loopingworld.com/2014/01/06/the-warrior-prophet-r-scott-bakker/

I'm not sure how much it can be interesting to read since I stay away from the details, but heh. Just my opinion.

At some point I even wrote: "Bakker dominates and perfects Tolkien", but then backed off.

[Happy Ent]

Let me question the idea that Kellhus uses his secular Dunyain skills to analyse the Circumfiction, realises that his Bayesian reasoning yields no significant probability estimate, and decides to just chance it.

That is not what the text tells us.

Here’s the passage from TWP, last paragraphs of chapter IX. It’s a Kellhus POV, where he just finished enumerating various variables (Cnaiür, Holy War, hunger, etc.)

And there was Father.

What would you have me do?

Possible worlds blew through him, fanning and branching into a canopy of glimpses...

Nameless Schoolmen climbing a steep, gravelly beach. A nipple pinched between fingers. A gasping climax. A severed head thrust against the burning sun. Apparitions marching out of morning mist.

A dead wife.
Kellhus exhaled, then breathed deep the bittersweet pinch of cedar, earth, and war.
There was revelation.

The terminology is the usual tree-imagery associated with considering various alternatives in the probabilty trance, with “branch” and even “canopy”

But he then clearly sees how to win. He clearly sees “past” the Circumfixion, including the severed head of Sarcellus, the sally of the Inrithi army, and the arrival of the school of Mandate (?).

Furthermore, not only does Kellhus clearly see “past” the Circumfixion, he does so not by inference, but by revelation.

(The “dead wife” idea I could accept as a deliberate manoeuvre. Given scriptural knowledge, it is completely plausible to infer that Kellhus needs himself denounced as a false prophet, so the “dead wife” is directly from the Tusk. This possibility was probably clear to Kellhus since a while ago at that time, which is why he needs to keep Serwë around.)

The details of his vision (in particular, Sarcellus decapitated) are completely outside of what he can affix any probability to, or what even somebody of Kellhus’s abilities would want to speculate about. He glimpses the future. I find it difficult to interpret that passage differently.

[jurble]

I always took that scene to just be a plain probability trance, though I did wonder how Kellhus knew Cnaiur could defeat Sarcellus given the complete physical superiority of a skin-spy against even an accomplished warrior like Cnaiur. Seeing it as an actual prophetic vision does have more explanatory power.

[Armitage]

...

The details of his vision (in particular, Sarcellus decapitated) are completely outside of what he can affix any probability to, or what even somebody of Kellhus’s abilities would want to speculate about. He glimpses the future. I find it difficult to interpret that passage differently.

But the details of the vision are directly associated with the Probability Trance via the sentence "Possible worlds blew through him, fanning and branching into a canopy of glimpses..." The Trance allows for non-verbal as well as verbal cognition.

Further, the Trance isn't incompatible with a "Eureka!" moment after a long period unfruitfully chasing inferences. Another example, from TTT, ch. 16:

“When did you realize you didn’t possess the strength,” Kellhus asked, “that more was needed to avert the No-God’s second coming?”

“From the very first I recognized that it was probable,” Moënghus said. “But I spent years assessing the possibilities, gathering knowledge. When the first of the Thought came to me, I was quite unprepared.”

[Happy Ent]

The text tells us “there was revelation”. It doesn’t say “inference” or “realization” or “recognition”. Revelation, in a Kellhus POV, is a pretty strong word.

But the details of the vision are directly associated with the Probability Trance via the sentence "Possible worlds blew through him, fanning and branching into a canopy of glimpses..." The Trance allows for non-verbal as well as verbal cognition.

Yes to your first sentence, I explicitly acknowledge that, Kellhus absolutely starts by dipping into the probability trance, no question about that. I said so above. There’s even more tree-imagery before the quoted passage.

Your second sentence (nonverbal vs. verbal) I don’t understand.

[Armitage]

Your second sentence (nonverbal vs. verbal) I don’t understand.

Apologies for my lack of clarity. Also, I may be attributing a position to you that you don't actually hold; if that's the case, further apologies.

My impression reading your earlier post is that you're considering the Probability Trance as a series of logical inferences (if A, then B; if B, then 70% chance of C, 30% chance of D...). These logical inferences are expressed via language. Perhaps inaccurately, I used the shorthand "verbal cognition."

I took the "canopy of glimpses" phrase to be of key importance and drew the conclusion that the PT encompassed not only logical inference expressed with language, but also a kind of visual or spatial cognition. Thus I read the series of images beginning with "Nameless Schoolmen..." as an intuitive leap -- a "Eureka!" moment -- directly proceeding from the PT and of a kind with it, rather than as a divinely-granted vision of the future.

ETA: your point about the word "revelation" is well-taken; I am curious now to go back and see how it is used through the rest of PoN.

[Happy Ent]

Thus I read the series of images beginning with "Nameless Schoolmen..." as an intuitive leap -- a "Eureka!" moment -- directly proceeding from the PT and of a kind with it, rather than as a divinely-granted vision of the future.

Well, my understanding is (of course) that the probability trance exactly not gives you any “intuitive leaps”. It’s purely a Bayesian network, in which you find the “Shortest” path (i.e., the path of maximum probability).

[unJon]

But he then clearly sees how to win. He clearly sees past the Circumfixion, including the severed head of Sarcellus, the sally of the Inrithi army, and the arrival of the mandate

.

I think the nameless school men are the SS arriving in the scene at the Circumfixion. Not the Mandate arriving at Shimeh.

Also the nipple pinched between fingers bit I clearly him seeing the need to rip into Serwe to get the heart and then put it the only place he could put it.

[Happy Ent]

I think the nameless school men are the SS arriving in the scene at the Circumfixion.

At a beach? No.

[unJon]

At a beach? No.

Oh. Good point.

[lokisnow]

read it as though Kellhus first glimpses the thousandfold thought in the scene Ent quoted. It's not the probability trance, it's bigger, revelatory...

Also worth noting is that after "praying" to his father with a directed mental thought, "what would you have me do?" he is given a "direct" answer. intriguing possibilities from that.

You could even say that "when the first of the Thought came to him" Kellhus was quite unprepared.

Alternatively, to get back to Shryke's point about the circumfixion

No, not quite correct. AFAIK anyway. You are missing the key point here about the climax of TWP. Kellhus doesn't plan the whole thing out at all. He has no idea what will happen. He sort of bends the odds in his favour, but the whole challenge that confronts him for the entirety of the end of TWP is that the probability trance cannot see a way past the circumfix (or, more specifically, the crisis it represents).

Kellhus knows he must become a living prophet (end point) and he knows where he is now (a large group of loyal followers but with alot of pushback from the unconverted and especially the nobility). The path from A to B leads straight to the Circumfix but ends there. That's what they mean when they talk about the Probability Trance failing. It cannot see a way to resolve this crisis. Without passing the circumfix, he can't ascend to universally acclaimed prophethood but he also can't see a way to survive it.

So he decides to roll the dice on the whole thing. He doesn't survive because he uses the logos to find the way out of the trap, he survives because of a miracle.

It's a big part of his whole arc in TWP as it all leads to his breaking on the circumfix. From the moment he unintentionally seems to speak prophecy to his having to rely on luck instead of the probability trance to his crying on the circumfix to his miracle of the heart-from-the-anus that unites the Holy War behind him.

Shryke's perspective suggests that the Probability Trance failed Kellhus and that he also failed to grasp the Thousand Fold Thought. If he was just going on luck he has not grasped the Thousandfold Thought. And I don't think he grasped it on the Circumfix--Instead of the Thousandfold Thought he sees the DEAD tree avatar of the No God, and is visited by the No God as well. But that glimpse of the Thought in the passage Ent posted in "there was revelation" lots of living, branching, canopy tree imagery.

Kellhus claims to have grasped the Thousandfold Thought, but he probably accepted/grasped the No God's doppleganger Thousandfold Thought instead.

[lokisnow]

For reference, to compare to Ent's quote of "there was revelation" here's what the probability trance is like, a water metaphor is used, not a tree, it is much more brutally efficient than branching worlds blowing through Kellhus, it is much more active on Kellhus' part, Kellhus experiences the revelation moment passively, he is active in the probability trance.

Ordinarily, Kellhus would’ve said something. But for the moment he could provide little more than rote responses. His eyes watched, but they didn’t focus. His expression merely mirrored those surrounding him. Self had vanished into place, a place of opening, where permutation after permutation was hunted to its merciless conclusion. Consequence and effect. Events like concentric ripples unfolding across the black waters of the future … Each word, each look, a stone.

Bakker, R. Scott (2008-09-02). The Warrior Prophet: The Prince of Nothing, Book Two (Kindle Locations 2073-2076). Penguin Group. Kindle Edition.

[Shryke]

Let me question the idea that Kellhus uses his secular Dunyain skills to analyse the Circumfiction, realises that his Bayesian reasoning yields no significant probability estimate, and decides to just chance it.

That is not what the text tells us.

Here’s the passage from TWP, last paragraphs of chapter IX. It’s a Kellhus POV, where he just finished enumerating various variables (Cnaiür, Holy War, hunger, etc.)

The terminology is the usual tree-imagery associated with considering various alternatives in the probabilty trance, with “branch” and even “canopy”

But he then clearly sees how to win. He clearly sees “past” the Circumfixion, including the severed head of Sarcellus, the sally of the Inrithi army, and the arrival of the school of Mandate (?).

Furthermore, not only does Kellhus clearly see “past” the Circumfixion, he does so not by inference, but by revelation.

(The “dead wife” idea I could accept as a deliberate manoeuvre. Given scriptural knowledge, it is completely plausible to infer that Kellhus needs himself denounced as a false prophet, so the “dead wife” is directly from the Tusk. This possibility was probably clear to Kellhus since a while ago at that time, which is why he needs to keep Serwë around.)

The details of his vision (in particular, Sarcellus decapitated) are completely outside of what he can affix any probability to, or what even somebody of Kellhus’s abilities would want to speculate about. He glimpses the future. I find it difficult to interpret that passage differently.

You need to look later in the text. The last POV we have from Kellhus before the Circumfixion (mid-wayish through Chapter 22) he states outright he cannot see the shortest path. He sees no way through the issue and doesn't know what to do. He even says:

In so many ways, it seemed, he was no different from these world-born men ...

What is the Thousandfold Thought?

(interestingly right afterwords he finds himself concerned for Esmenet's welfare in a way he doesn't understand. He is breaking again, in anticipation of what happens on the circumfix)

Whatever revelation comes to him then, it doesn't help or isn't enough. He doesn't know what's going to happen exactly, he just knows that somehow it's the only solution.

Though, interestingly, his next scene (it's from Esmenet's perspective right before the end of the chapter) seems to suggest he either somehow found a Shortest Path or he's not being accurate/specific in his statements to Esmenet.

[Shryke]

read it as though Kellhus first glimpses the thousandfold thought in the scene Ent quoted. It's not the probability trance, it's bigger, revelatory...

Also worth noting is that after "praying" to his father with a directed mental thought, "what would you have me do?" he is given a "direct" answer. intriguing possibilities from that.

You could even say that "when the first of the Thought came to him" Kellhus was quite unprepared.

Alternatively, to get back to Shryke's point about the circumfixion

Shryke's perspective suggests that the Probability Trance failed Kellhus and that he also failed to grasp the Thousand Fold Thought. If he was just going on luck he has not grasped the Thousandfold Thought. And I don't think he grasped it on the Circumfix--Instead of the Thousandfold Thought he sees the DEAD tree avatar of the No God, and is visited by the No God as well. But that glimpse of the Thought in the passage Ent posted in "there was revelation" lots of living, branching, canopy tree imagery.

Kellhus claims to have grasped the Thousandfold Thought, but he probably accepted/grasped the No God's doppleganger Thousandfold Thought instead.

But Moenghus' statements suggest it failed him too. The Probability Trance cannot grasp the Thousandfold Thought. Kellhus only grasps it when he breaks on the circumfix.

Though interestingly, when's he cut down, he keeps stating he's one of the Conditioned. The recap from TJE seems to suggest he's deluded about this though.

[lokisnow]

No, at that point in Moe's description, he says the Probability Trance failed him. Moe never confuses the Probability Trance and the Thousand Fold Thought, or suggests that the Thousand Fold Thought failed him. You keep conflating them as the same thing.

[Shryke]

No, at that point in Moe's description, he says the Probability Trance failed him. Moe never confuses the Probability Trance and the Thousand Fold Thought, or suggests that the Thousand Fold Thought failed him. You keep conflating them as the same thing.

And you keep confusing the TFT with a process, instead of a goal. The TFT can't "fail him" because it's not a process. One can only graps it or not grasp it. (though one can sort of poke around the edges of it and get a general idea of it's shape.) And enact it or not enact.

When Moenghus says the Probability Trance failed him, he's saying he failed to be able to fully grasp the TFT and how it could be done.

[lokisnow]

indeed, men and dunyain are ever grasping. :)

And the place where Kellhus had once existed extended an open hand—the blond hairs like luminous filaments against tanned skin—and grasped the knife from stunned space.

Bakker, R. Scott (2008-09-02). The Darkness that Comes Before (The Prince of Nothing) (p. 526). Penguin Group. Kindle Edition.

[lokisnow]

I guess I have to put this in a separate post, quoting system is weird:

Getting back to the skin spy haloes Serwe sees. We readers like to see this as proof of Serwe's delusion, perhaps we even see it as proof of the inferiority of the weak minded, or of women, or of pre-modern peoples or whatever, or even perhaps proof of Kellhus being false, but even this conclusion is subservient to the idea that it is Serwe's failing that gives us this insight (not that anyone thanks her for the insight, what, thank a woman? *scoff*). Serwe seeing the haloes on the skin spy always becomes proof of Serwe being guilty, in some extent or another.

Alternatively, what about a sort of programming glitch or a paradox is going on? Presume the haloes are a metaphysical manifestation, of the watcher and watched dynamic. Whether or not there is agency in the appearance of the haloes is irrelevant. Also irrelevant is whether or not the haloes proof any divinity, they are there because that's what the rules demand. What is probably relevant is that the skin spies disrupt the dynamic of watcher and watched, and because they are creations of the tekne, the metaphysics do not apply correctly because the skin spies don't exist, so to speak, within the code of the watcher and watched.

The disruption of the skin spy in impersonating kellhus creates an imbalance in watcher and watched. Serwe expects to see the haloes, but the haloes are not there because it is a skin spy, but the haloes cannot be in a simultaneous state of off and on, the paradox/conflict must be resolved instantly. haloes on the skin spy when the watcher who sees the haloes on kellhus looks at the skin spy because the haloes are still there around kellhus when the watcher looks at kellhus. the metaphysics don't know that Serwe is looking at a skin spy, she might as well be looking at an empty field when she looks at the skin spy, it doesn't exist, so to speak. All that's happening is it is still making sure that the haloes are watched when she is watching kellhus.

[Kalbear]

Alternatively, what about a sort of programming glitch or a paradox is going on? Presume the haloes are a metaphysical manifestation, of the watcher and watched dynamic. Whether or not there is agency in the appearance of the haloes is irrelevant. Also irrelevant is whether or not the haloes proof any divinity, they are there because that's what the rules demand. What is probably relevant is that the skin spies disrupt the dynamic of watcher and watched, and because they are creations of the tekne, the metaphysics do not apply correctly because the skin spies don't exist, so to speak, within the code of the watcher and watched.

Nope, doesn't fly. You can have a skin spy with a soul. In order to do magic, you must be able to do watcher and watched - all magic requires it - and there are skin spies that can do magic.

Ergo they disrupt nothing.

You don't need to have a soul in order to exist in the world of the souled. People can see trees just fine, and despite HE's objections we can say with reasonable certainty that trees don't have souls. I guess we could start guessing and say that anything - anything at all - that can watch has a soul, and the skinspies that don't have that violate that rule and are special in some way - but that seems pretty odd and isn't well established in the book at all.