Heresy 92 and nae deid yet

[Tyryan Lannister]

References:

• Black Crow. H6: P330 / H29: P219, 285, 309, 335, 346

Feather Crystal. H29: P329

Toccs: H29: P310 / H30: P65

Tyryan: H29: P303, 318, 319 / H30: P51

I'm an official source! :o

Very good points, especially the boldfaced one.

That's exactly why I think the second Hammer was deployed against the First Men... created the swamp... led to the Pact... and then Moat Cailin was built, because then it was in a super-strategic place. This also explains why it and the Pact are the same age: 10K years.

This does require, of course, that we look a bit cock-eyed at the story that the CotF called down the Hammer from Moat Cailin. Personally, I am prepared to doubt that story in the face of the above logic, but many won't.

Moat Cailin deserves a lot more analysis.

Maybe it actually occurred "at the spot where Moat Cailin was eventually built", with the Children's Tower being named as such because it was built at the exact spot, as opposed to the exact area that the rest of the castle sits on, and that over time, "at the spot where Moat Cailin was eventually built" was shortened to "from Moat Cailin", as shortening of details is something that invariably happens in oral histories across centuries and millennia

[JNR]

What were the Andals so afraid of?

I'm not persuaded they were afraid of anything. They seem to be based on the historical Angles/Jutes/Saxons, and hence, to be invading a rich territory simply because they can -- they have both the strength and the desire to take it.

[JNR]

Maybe it actually occurred "at the spot where Moat Cailin was eventually built", with the Children's Tower being named as such because it was built at the exact spot, as opposed to the exact area that the rest of the castle sits on, and that over time, "at the spot where Moat Cailin was eventually built" was shortened to "from Moat Cailin", as shortening of details is something that invariably happens in oral histories across centuries and millennia

You have just made a complete believer out of me, for an idea that never crossed my mind.

Well done, man.

[Tyryan Lannister]

I'm not persuaded they were afraid of anything. They seem to be based on the historical Angles/Jutes/Saxons, and hence, to be invading a rich territory simply because they can -- they have both the strength and the desire to take it.

It is stated both in text and by Martin that the main part of the Andal emigration to Westeros was because they were getting pushed out of Andalos by the Rhoynar, who were in turn being pushed out of their cities along the Rhoyne by the Valyrians. Now, this does not include all Andals--it is quite probable that the Arryns stories about how they arrived first are correct (and they might have just been a colony type expedition) and also the supposedly Andal slavers who took over the White Harbor area (as described by Feather Crystal in post 15 above) might have actually come straight from Andalos via the Stepstones as their base of operations; would explain why they are selling to slavers (who, presumably, were across the sea): they were just selling to their kin and families and markets back home.

ETA: the point being, if there was anything the Andals were afraid of, it was probably Dragons

[King of Winters]

It is stated both in text and by Martin that the main part of the Andal emigration to Westeros was because they were getting pushed out of Andalos by the Rhoynar, who were in turn being pushed out of their cities along the Rhoyne by the Valyrians. Now, this does not include all Andals--it is quite probable that the Arryns stories about how they arrived first are correct (and they might have just been a colony type expedition) and also the supposedly Andal slavers who took over the White Harbor area (as described by Feather Crystal in post 15 above) might have actually come straight from Andalos via the Stepstones as their base of operations; would explain why they are selling to slavers (who, presumably, were across the sea): they were just selling to their kin and families and markets back home.

ETA: the point being, if there was anything the Andals were afraid of, it was probably Dragons

And who wouldn't be afraid of an army of dragons.

[Tyryan Lannister]

If there was a pact between the FM and the Andals.

Which is precisely why I also put the qualifier "proposed" whenever discussing a Pact beyond the one between the FM and the COTF

And, in review, there are a total of 4 Pacts as developed as possibly existing throughout the course of Heresy

First Pact: FM and COTF - this one is all but confirmed (due to the fact that, it having occurred in the mists of legend, it is possible that it is just a story--not saying it is just a myth, just pointing it out)

Proposed Second Pact: FM and WW (and possibly COTF) - proposed in Heresy to be what ended the Long Night, established the Wall, potentially set up the Night's Watch, and maybe also the reason for Winterfell, the Starks, and why "there must always be a Stark in Winterfell" -- the idea being that all of the after-Long Night parts were conditions of a Pact between Man and White Walker that was potentially brokered by the Children; but, DISCLAIMER: this is just a proposed truce/Pact that the facts fit, but there is not actual evidence of it existing itself; it is just a means of explaining how the facts tie together

Proposed Third Pact: FM (namely the Starks) and the Andals - while there is text stating how "the Starks repeatedly repelled the Andals at Moat Cailin", there are four things that are interesting.

First, if Andal invasion of the North was a constant threat, why is there no recent(ish) example of a battle/war of the Marshes? Even within the last 1000, 1500 years? In fact, while we are told of there having been repeated foiled attempts at breaching Moat Cailin from the south, we are never actually told of a particular instance of this occurring.

My thoughts on it: when the Andals first stormed through the South, they did try to take over Moat Cailin on multiple occasions during a shortish timeframe (eg a few centuries) until they finally made a truce with the Starks, that being this proposed Third Pact

Second, the Starks seem to have some sort of implicit overlordship of the Watch--if the Andals were constantly trying to attack the Stark lands, why would they let their enemies live in an area from which they could easily attack? We know that eventually the Andals did come into the Watch due to the Andalization of the Watch (and that there was some semblance of using the Wall as a penal colony; see: Nymeria sending the defeated Dornish kings to the Wall). It makes much more sense that this occurred because of the Starks allowing the Andals in due to having developed a truce

Third, while on the topic of allowing the Andals in, why would the Starks have let the very Andal Manderlies into their lands, and especially allowing them to have such a strategic area? (White Harbor sits at the mouth of the White Knife, which is the closest waterway to Winterfell) If they were no longer actively fighting the Andals due to the existence of a truce, it makes much more sense.

Fourth, the following:

The text makes no such reference that I recall. What it says is that the Andals tried and failed repeatedly to invade the North, being balked at Moat Cailin every time (and apparently forgetting they had ships and the North has an endless coastline).

Precisely. It does not make any sort of logical sense for the Andals to not try to invade the eastern coast of the North* if they were actively trying to get northwards, particularly since the Andals only means of ingress to Westeros was by ship in the first place. However, if a truce had been signed calling for a ceasefire, it does start to make sense that they wouldn't have tried to build a naval invasion force

*It makes perfect sense as to why they would not try to invade the western coast, seeing as they would have had to get through the Iron Born first

Proposed Fourth Pact: FM and Valyrians - Call it a hunch, but I just don't see the Starks willingly kneeling to Aegon without asking for some sort of terms on Aegon's part as well; similarly, Aegon had shown his willingness to work with those who did not oppose his conquest, so I see him being willing to negotiate terms with Torrhen; what would have encompassed this Pact? Not a clue, but it is quite possible that the details did involve a continuation of earlier Pacts, but with the information since being lost due to the first Dance of Dragons, Aegon the IV being Aegon IV, the Blackfyre Rebellion, and Robert's Rebellion on the Targ side and the various spots of missing father to son-heir connections in the Starks (She-Wolves, Rickard to Brandon instead of to Ned--there has to be a reason for Ned being the second son, and I have a gut feeling that the non-transfer of information was part of Martin's thinking)

But, as I stated by myself and JNR, all of these (outside of the First Pact) are only proposed, and there is nothing but circumstantial evidence to the Heretically supposed "fact" of their existence.

[Black Crow]

Very good points, especially the boldfaced one.

That's exactly why I think the second Hammer was deployed against the First Men... created the swamp... led to the Pact... and then Moat Cailin was built, because then it was in a super-strategic place. This also explains why it and the Pact are the same age: 10K years.

This does require, of course, that we look a bit cock-eyed at the story that the CotF called down the Hammer from Moat Cailin. Personally, I am prepared to doubt that story in the face of the above logic, but many won't.

Moat Cailin deserves a lot more analysis.

I agree entirely; my take on this is that the Children first tried to stop the migration by the First Men by breaking the Arm; when that failed they tried to cur Westeros in two at the Neck, and when that failed they succeeded at the third attempt by throwing the Wall across Westeros. Albeit at a terrible cost

[Black Crow]

Maybe it actually occurred "at the spot where Moat Cailin was eventually built", with the Children's Tower being named as such because it was built at the exact spot, as opposed to the exact area that the rest of the castle sits on, and that over time, "at the spot where Moat Cailin was eventually built" was shortened to "from Moat Cailin", as shortening of details is something that invariably happens in oral histories across centuries and millennia

:agree:

That makes sense, is entirely plausible and best of all provides a proper answer to an otherwise strange anomaly.

[Black Crow]

This is the first I've read of pushing the Nights King up to the time of the Andals, though I have to admit it makes a bit of sense. Insofar as, in order for all mention of him to be stricken from the record, there needs to be a written record. It's my understanding there was none until the arrival of the andals.

This is why getting to grips with the timeline problems is so fundamental to figuring out what may really be going on.

Old Nan's stories are woven all the way through the Stark POVs. We know they are not entirely reliable - her description of the Others as "cold dead things" for example is flatly contradicted by GRRM himself, but they are inserted for a reason; to give us clues as to significant places and or events.

We'll be talking in more detail about the Nights King later in the project, but very briefly moving him forward to the Andal period provides an explanation for the Battle for the Dawn song involving the Nights Watch, and an explanation as to why the Old Races found no refuge in the North despite it never being conquered by the Andals.

It also impacts on the timeline of the Watch itself and that Lord Commander List which Sam was so uneasy about since it only went back about 2,500-2,600 years. According to Old Nan the Nights King's name was stricken from the rolls. Was this really so, or did the present Nights Watch overthrow him 2,600 years ago and then write up a list stretching back to the legendary building of the Wall without his name on it; at once writing him out of history and providing the Watch with an equally legendary history?

[King of Winters]

This is why getting to grips with the timeline problems is so fundamental to figuring out what may really be going on.

Old Nan's stories are woven all the way through the Stark POVs. We know they are not entirely reliable - her description of the Others as "cold dead things" for example is flatly contradicted by GRRM himself, but they are inserted for a reason; to give us clues as to significant places and or events.

We'll be talking in more detail about the Nights King later in the project, but very briefly moving him forward to the Andal period provides an explanation for the Battle for the Dawn song involving the Nights Watch, and an explanation as to why the Old Races found no refuge in the North despite it never being conquered by the Andals.

It also impacts on the timeline of the Watch itself and that Lord Commander List which Sam was so uneasy about since it only went back about 2,500-2,600 years. According to Old Nan the Nights King's name was stricken from the rolls. Was this really so, or did the present Nights Watch overthrow him 2,600 years ago and then write up a list stretching back to the legendary building of the Wall without his name on it; at once writing him out of history and providing the Watch with an equally legendary history?

My question is if the Night's King wasn't an evil child sacrificer to the ww, why did the Northmen overthrow him and change the whole NW's purpose? Was it apart of their Pact with the Andals?

[Black Crow]

Essentially that's the theory. The Nights King was overthrown by his brother in order to secure peace with the Andals.

This in turn feeds into the problem with Moat Caillin. Why has it been allowed to fall into ruin so long before Aegon the Conqueror turned up to unite all of Westeros under the Iron Throne. Damage to the stonework aside Catelyn notes that the timber keep rotted away 1,000 years ago. That suggests that there was no threat of an Andal attack on the North and that the defences may indeed have been slighted as part of some kind of peace treaty - which may also have established the Watch and their castles on the Wall rather than on the Neck.

[theREALjonsnow]

" On the Crown of the hill four and forty monstrous stone ribs rose from the earth like the trunks of great pale trees. The sight made Aerion's heart beat faster. Nagga had been the first sea dragon, this mightiest ever to rise from the waves. She fed on krakens and leviathans and drownded whole islands in her wrath, yet the Grey King had slain her and the Drowned God had changed her bones to stone so that men might never cease to wonder at the courage of the first of kings. Nagga's ribs became beams and pillars of his longhall, just as her jaws became this throne. For a thousand years and seven he reigned here, Aeron recalled. Here he took his mermaid wife and planned his wars against the Storm God. From here he ruled both stone and salt, wearing robes of woven seaweed and a tall pale crown made from Nagga's teeth." AFFC the Drowned Man 19

" What sort of gods make rats and plagues and dwarfs? Another passage from the Seven Pointed Star came back to him. The maid broght him forth a girl as supple as a willow with eyes like deep blue pools, and Hugor declared that he would have her for his bride. So the mother made her fertile, and the Crone fortold that she would bear the king four and fourty might sons. The Warrior gave strength to their arms, whilst the smith wrought for each a suit of iron plates." ADWD Tyrion 2

So the andals came to the iron islands based upon a prophecy and then the two teamed up to battle the starks? is this the origin of the long night?

both 44 references and the fact the creation of metal and the description of a cold dead princess has lead me to consider a connection

[wolfmaid7]

My question is if the Night's King wasn't an evil child sacrificer to the ww, why did the Northmen overthrow him and change the whole NW's purpose? Was it apart of their Pact with the Andals?

First off, amazing OP Mace. I am not a timelines person on account of details being so muddled.Hopefully,this detailed look at it can flesh out any inaccuracy as they sure are plenty to go around.

@KOS: You brought up something i've pondered a bit,and i get the sense myself that the betrayal came from the Stark in WF and that the NK was villianized and backstabbed by his brother in order as you say to secure peace with the Andal. It explains a few things.

1. Why the NW became so Anadalized,strategically it would make sense to remove the NK.

Mormont's statement of " Castle black not having and not needing a god's wood"(AGOT,Jon) indicates to me in a way that CB became the first Castle of the changed regime.Everything about the NF hints at an amicable relationship between the FM and the OR.

2.Secondly,Qhorin's message to Mormont on the Skirling pass(Jon,ACOK,) about the "Old powers are rising" and "the trees have eyes again" meant their was a time in history where this knowledge was evident to maybe the Andals and not passed down to them by the FM. Another reason to destroy the relationship between the FM and the OR . I believe myself this had to have been going on around the time of the NK.So it seems also as Tyryan pointed out that some type of pact must have been agreed to by the SIWF and the Andals.And the NK didn't seem to like that.

I can understand blotting out his name and turning him into some evil dude.

Essentially that's the theory. The Nights King was overthrown by his brother in order to secure peace with the Andals.

This in turn feeds into the problem with Moat Caillin. Why has it been allowed to fall into ruin so long before Aegon the Conqueror turned up to unite all of Westeros under the Iron Throne. Damage to the stonework aside Catelyn notes that the timber keep rotted away 1,000 years ago. That suggests that there was no threat of an Andal attack on the North and that the defences may indeed have been slighted as part of some kind of peace treaty - which may also have established the Watch and their castles on the Wall rather than on the Neck.

Agree!

[Black Crow]

" On the Crown of the hill four and forty monstrous stone ribs rose from the earth like the trunks of great pale trees. The sight made Aerion's heart beat faster. Nagga had been the first sea dragon, this mightiest ever to rise from the waves. She fed on krakens and leviathans and drownded whole islands in her wrath, yet the Grey King had slain her and the Drowned God had changed her bones to stone so that men might never cease to wonder at the courage of the first of kings. Nagga's ribs became beams and pillars of his longhall, just as her jaws became this throne. For a thousand years and seven he reigned here, Aeron recalled. Here he took his mermaid wife and planned his wars against the Storm God. From here he ruled both stone and salt, wearing robes of woven seaweed and a tall pale crown made from Nagga's teeth." AFFC the Drowned Man 19

" What sort of gods make rats and plagues and dwarfs? Another passage from the Seven Pointed Star came back to him. The maid broght him forth a girl as supple as a willow with eyes like deep blue pools, and Hugor declared that he would have her for his bride. So the mother made her fertile, and the Crone fortold that she would bear the king four and fourty might sons. The Warrior gave strength to their arms, whilst the smith wrought for each a suit of iron plates." ADWD Tyrion 2

So the andals came to the iron islands based upon a prophecy and then the two teamed up to battle the starks? is this the origin of the long night?

both 44 references and the fact the creation of metal and the description of a cold dead princess has lead me to consider a connection

No, I really don't see any connection between the two, far less the outcome you're suggesting. The first passage is interesting though.

In the first passage the reference to a mermaid wife suggests a parallel with the Nights King, but the Storm God business seems to relate to factions within the Ironborn. The related (?) Sistermen have a tradition of the Storm God and the Lady of the Waves being married but constantly fighting so there may be a connection here between the Lady of the Waves and the Drowned God. What complicates things here is that Aerion is clearly a follower of the Drowned God and agin the Storm God and indeed in another passage expresses his distrust of crows because they are agents of the Storm God. On the other hand another of the Ironborn - the Rafe Kenning who Theon finished off at Moat Caillin, had the arm and thunderbolt of the Storm God for his sigil.

[TheNorthernWarrior]

I want to caution the assumption that the Andals never tried to invade the North by sea. The North is not some small island that can be conquered quickly, it is huge and difficult to live on for an invader. The invading army would require a reliable supply chain. Given the presence of the Ironborn, pirates, and other rivals this is clearly best done over land. Hence the need to take Moat Cailin, without it it would be impossible to implement a reliable supple chain for any invading army. It is easy to say they could land North of Moat Cailin and take it that way, but that is more difficult than it seems. You'd need a successful naval invasion, establish a beachhead to land land your army. You then have to march through enemy territory to open siege on Moat Cailin while being open to attack from all directions.

I wonder if Moat Cailin may also be the site where Stark of WInterfell defeated the Marsh King and that it was original a Marsh King stronghold? The habitats of the neck and the CoTF seem to be tight and this could explain why the Children were in Moat Cailin in the first place when casting their spells.

[Melifeather]

Very nice job of introduction to this very challenging area. Well done, Mace!

Some thoughts...

I certainly don't believe it.

However, I see no particular reason to think the oath is based on prayers to R'hllor. Such an idea is never stated in the books.

Where did this idea come from in Heresy -- the references to the night and darkness? Those could have emerged from the Long Night... not the faith of R'hllor.

(In fact, I think an argument could be made that the Long Night, which GRRM has said in interviews had a meteorological effect worldwide, led to both the Watch and the red faith.)

Actually, the text never says the second Hammer was deployed to stop the Andals. That's just a common assumption in Heresy.

It might also have been deployed to stop the First Men, and the Pact adopted specifically because it failed.

If there was a pact between the FM and the Andals.

The text makes no such reference that I recall. What it says is that the Andals tried and failed repeatedly to invade the North, being balked at Moat Cailin every time (and apparently forgetting they had ships and the North has an endless coastline).

So I'm not sure there's much to explain, except the assumption in Heresy that there was a second Pact of sorts, which is never mentioned in the books.

Are you sure about that?

Just beyond, through the mists, she glimpsed the walls and towers of Moat Cailin … or what remained of them. Immense blocks of black basalt, each as large as a crofter’s cottage, lay scattered and tumbled like a child’s wooden blocks, half-sunk in the soft boggy soil. Nothing else remained of a curtain wall that had once stood as high as Winterfell’s. The wooden keep was gone entirely, rotted away a thousand years past, with not so much as a timber to mark where it had stood. All that was left of the great stronghold of the First Men were three towers … three where there had once been twenty, if the taletellers could be believed. The Gatehouse Tower looked sound enough, and even boasted a few feet of standing wall to either side of it. The Drunkard’s Tower, off in the bog where the south and west walls had once met, leaned like a man about to spew a bellyful of wine into the gutter. And the tall, slender Children’s Tower, where legend said the children of the forest had once called upon their nameless gods to send the hammer of the waters, had lost half its crown. It looked as if some great beast had taken a bite out of the crenellations along the tower top, and spit the rubble across the bog. All three towers were green with moss. A tree was growing out between the stones on the north side of the Gatehouse Tower, its gnarled limbs festooned with ropy white blankets of ghostskin.

[theREALjonsnow]

First off, amazing OP Mace. I am not a timelines person on account of details being so muddled.Hopefully,this detailed look at it can flesh out any inaccuracy as they sure are plenty to go around.

@KOS: You brought up something i've pondered a bit,and i get the sense myself that the betrayal came from the Stark in WF and that the NK was villianized and backstabbed by his brother in order as you say to secure peace with the Andal. It explains a few things.

1. Why the NW became so Anadalized,strategically it would make sense to remove the NK.

Mormont's statement of " Castle black not having and not needing a god's wood"(AGOT,Jon) indicates to me in a way that CB became the first Castle of the changed regime.Everything about the NF hints at an amicable relationship between the FM and the OR.

" I am the sword in the darkness, samwell tarly said. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers. I am the shiled that guards the realms of men" SOS Bran 56

" Hear my words and bear witness to my vow, they recited, their voices filling the twilit grove. Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch for this night and all nights to come." GOT Jon 48

i believe the changing of the vow possibly has something to do with the andals. I see the ancient night's watch serving even after their death a la Coldhands. the new vow seems to give you a way out after you die. also the additions of wife lands and children seems to be a penalty that early "first men" would not want to actively participate in due to the Age of Heroes being a time of "glory".

this first dragons arriving at the wall during during Jaehaerys the 1st and his connection to the Faith of the Seven and the moving of the NW from Night Fort to Castle Black could also coincide with the changing of the vows and the installation of having to cross the wall for certain members to take their vows...

[Black Crow]

Just beyond, through the mists, she glimpsed the walls and towers of Moat Cailin … or what remained of them. Immense blocks of black basalt, each as large as a crofter’s cottage, lay scattered and tumbled like a child’s wooden blocks, half-sunk in the soft boggy soil. Nothing else remained of a curtain wall that had once stood as high as Winterfell’s. The wooden keep was gone entirely, rotted away a thousand years past, with not so much as a timber to mark where it had stood. All that was left of the great stronghold of the First Men were three towers … three where there had once been twenty, if the taletellers could be believed. The Gatehouse Tower looked sound enough, and even boasted a few feet of standing wall to either side of it. The Drunkard’s Tower, off in the bog where the south and west walls had once met, leaned like a man about to spew a bellyful of wine into the gutter. And the tall, slender Children’s Tower, where legend said the children of the forest had once called upon their nameless gods to send the hammer of the waters, had lost half its crown. It looked as if some great beast had taken a bite out of the crenellations along the tower top, and spit the rubble across the bog. All three towers were green with moss. A tree was growing out between the stones on the north side of the Gatehouse Tower, its gnarled limbs festooned with ropy white blankets of ghostskin.

As I said, Aegon Targaryen only tooled up 300 years ago. This castle as described has lain in ruins for far longer than that, indicating that the threat from the south which it once guarded against - all those Andal armies - evaporated long long before. There isn't even the remains of a customs post.

[Melifeather]

The Children used the Hammer on the Neck. It was never referred to as a hammer when they flooded the Arm of Dorne:

“But some twelve thousand years ago, the First Men appeared from the east, crossing the Broken Arm of Dorne before it was broken. They came with bronze swords and great leathern shields, riding horses. No horse had ever been seen on this side of the narrow sea. No doubt the children were as frightened by the horses as the First Men were by the faces in the trees. As the First Men carved out holdfasts and farms, they cut down the faces and gave them to the fire. Horror-struck, the children went to war. The old songs say that the greenseers used dark magics to make the seas rise and sweep away the land, shattering the Arm, but it was too late to close the door. The wars went on until the earth ran red with blood of men and children both, but more children than men, for men were bigger and stronger, and wood and stone and obsidian make a poor match for bronze. Finally the wise of both races prevailed, and the chiefs and heroes of the First Men met the greenseers and wood dancers amidst the weirwood groves of a small island in the great lake called Gods Eye."

[Melifeather]

As I said, Aegon Targaryen only tooled up 300 years ago. This castle as described has lain in ruins for far longer than that, indicating that the threat from the south which it once guarded against - all those Andal armies - evaporated long long before. There isn't even the remains of a customs post.

Yes. The Andals have been in Westeros a lot longer than Targaryens. I'm confused as to the point you are making?