The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4

[Metopheles]

So your 'keep her as a hostage' order theory cannot work.

Well I am not convinced by the Aerys' hostage, but this does not disprove it. Just because they don't jump the moment their king is supposedly dead, doesn't do anything.

And as a super fighter like Dayne, I would not move a millimeter for such a little group of brutes that stand in my way.

"Oh Aerys is dead ? And Rhaegar too?"

"yes"

"you are not fucking with me?"

"no"

"Oh, well, there's your sis, no hard feelings, aye.. see you someday somewhere, right? Cheerio then" :D

[Modesty Lannister]

Yes we do. They know exactly what happened. And Ned even tells them:

“I looked for you on the Trident,” Ned said to them.

“We were not there,” Ser Gerold answered.

“Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell.

“When King’s Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were.”

“Far away,” Ser Gerold said, “or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells.”

“I came down on Storm’s End to lift the siege,” Ned told them... and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them.”

So your 'keep her as a hostage' order theory cannot work.

Why? It works perfectly. Death of a king does not release KG of their orders. Only the next king can do that and Robert was not officially king when Ned went to the ToJ. I know that Lyanna and even Jon in the ToJ does not seem like enough to guard, but, as we know, orders are orders. As I said, we just don't know enough. We just know that Dayne was not likely to be defeated by Ned.

[Metopheles]

Oh and this : So what if the king is dead ? They would think Aegon is now king. But he was dead, so then Viserys. He was still alive. Or Rhaella and Daenerys.

And some KG die with their king. They don't throw their swords directly to the usurpers feet.

[Hrafntýr]

The eye color thing is really one of the arguments for any parentage discussions that annoys the crap out of me for like a ton of reasons.

Targaryens don't all have purple eyes and purple eyes aren't limited to Targaryens.

Targaryens have been shown with brown eyes, lilac eyes, purple eyes, indigo eyes, violet eyes, green and blue eyes, etc.

And Daynes have been noted to have purple eyes but they aren't Targaryens.

The purple eyes come from "the blood of old Valyria".

Way too much stock is put into eye and hair color as if they are definitive indicators of lineage.

The only point to "the seed is strong" in the beginning is to point out that for ages Baratheons had children black of hair no matter what color hair the mother had.

The Targaryens have had lines of people with silver, gold, brown, and black hair, and brown, blue, purple, and even mismatched eyes.

Mance's eye color doesn't matter.

I can't agree with you here. While I agree that eye color is not a definitive indicator of lineage, there is an obvious trend in the books. I can think of only a couple of cases of Targs without the purple-hued eyes (Alysanne and Valarr, who have blue eyes, plus Shiera, with her one blue, one green combo; oh, and Bloodraven, with his albino red eye). I can't think of a single Targ with brown eyes, unless one counts Nettles as Targ, but there is no confirmation of that. Yes, purple eyes are common over in the lands that were once the Valyrian freehold, but they are rare in Westeros, with only, to my knowledge, House Dayne and House Velaryon manifesting them in apparent independence of the Targs. I know that it's not like we get descriptions of every character's eye colour, but in my opinion a pretty big deal is made of purple eyes as a Targ and Dayne trait.

But the real point is that we know Rhaegar's eye color was dark lilac. Not brown. So, I think that if RT=MR, then you have to posit a glamour. Which to my mind makes the theory less palatable.

[Modesty Lannister]

I can't agree with you here. While I agree that eye color is not a definitive indicator of lineage, there is an obvious trend in the books. I can think of only a couple of cases of Targs without the purple-hued eyes (Alysanne and Valarr, who have blue eyes, plus Shiera, with her one blue, one green combo; oh, and Bloodraven, with his albino red eye). I can't think of a single Targ with brown eyes, unless one counts Nettles as Targ, but there is no confirmation of that. Yes, purple eyes are common over in the lands that were once the Valyrian freehold, but they are rare in Westeros, with only, to my knowledge, House Dayne and House Velaryon manifesting them in apparent independence of the Targs. I know that it's not like we get descriptions of every character's eye colour, but in my opinion a pretty big deal is made of purple eyes as a Targ and Dayne trait.

But the real point is that we know Rhaegar's eye color was dark lilac. Not brown. So, I think that if RT=MR, then you have to posit a glamour. Which to my mind makes the theory less palatable.

It doesn't, because no one ever found the 7th ruby. RT could have kept it for glamour. I don't think the glamour issue is very difficult to breach. In my view, what's important is the character of a character and RT and MR share too many similarities.

[JNR]

To some in another place it is proof positive that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and rightful king of Westeros pure and simple.

Others point to GRRM's statement that they were obeying orders, which he implies but does not actually say were given to them by Rhaegar.

An interesting point here is that (so I'm told) the app specifies the order came from Rhaegar.

Now, personally I find the app about as trustworthy as the wiki or the book appendices. I think it merely reflects what people in Westeros know at the time of the end of DwD, not some absolute historical truth.

However, the same group mentioned in the first line frequently cites the app as "proving" that Rhaegar whispered Lyanna's name when he died.

If they believe that, they should also believe the wiki that Rhaegar ordered the KG to be there prior to leaving for King's Landing. But this, curiously, they seem reluctant to embrace as a concept...

[Metopheles]

a glamour. Which to my mind makes the theory less palatable.

What do you want to like the theory more ?

Mance running around lean and clean, platinum hair, indigo eyes, a golden harp and strings of silver, a coat of black and a sigil of red?

That would make it less palatable to me..

I like the total hiding of the outside, but the outcry of the inside.

A coat of gold or a coat of red, a lion still has claws.

[JNR]

And he can always be under glamour. Glamours change eye colour.

They certainly do.

However, Rhaegar/Mance's glamour would have to have been created 17 years ago, would have to have been continually in place, updated over time to reflect his aging, and then there would have been a double glamour when he "was" Rattleshirt.

It seems like an awful lot of glamouring, with little explanation as to where the glamour originally came from or who maintained it all that time.

[Metopheles]

An interesting point here is that (so I'm told) the app specifies the order came from Rhaegar.

Now, personally I find the app about as trustworthy as the wiki or the book appendices. I think it merely reflects what people in Westeros know at the time of the end of DwD, not some absolute historical truth.

However, the same group mentioned in the first line frequently cites the app as "proving" that Rhaegar whispered Lyanna's name when he died.

If they believe that, they should also believe the wiki that Rhaegar ordered the KG to be there prior to leaving for King's Landing. But this, curiously, they seem reluctant to embrace as a concept...

I don't really like the app at all. I got it for the chapter, which was kinda meh. And the app too..

I mean George Lucas smashed his stamp on every Star Wars related product. But I give Burger King's action figure description less credibility as the description I get from a character in his movies. And the expanded uiverse is nice, but not Lucas. It's only made official because Lucas said meh, money. like.

[Metopheles]

They certainly do.

However, Rhaegar/Mance's glamour would have to have been created 17 years ago, would have to have been continually in place, updated over time to reflect his aging, and then there would have been a double glamour when he "was" Rattleshirt.

It seems like an awful lot of glamouring, with little explanation as to where the glamour originally came from or who maintained it all that time.

Melisandre is under glamour. For god knows how long.

And, haha I love these, the animagus Pettigrew was for 13 years a rat. without pause. Why can't GRRM use such a device ? :)

[setmyheartafire]

I can't agree with you here. While I agree that eye color is not a definitive indicator of lineage, there is an obvious trend in the books. I can think of only a couple of cases of Targs without the purple-hued eyes (Alysanne and Valarr, who have blue eyes, plus Shiera, with her one blue, one green combo; oh, and Bloodraven, with his albino red eye). I can't think of a single Targ with brown eyes, unless one counts Nettles as Targ, but there is no confirmation of that. Yes, purple eyes are common over in the lands that were once the Valyrian freehold, but they are rare in Westeros, with only, to my knowledge, House Dayne and House Velaryon manifesting them in apparent independence of the Targs. I know that it's not like we get descriptions of every character's eye colour, but in my opinion a pretty big deal is made of purple eyes as a Targ and Dayne trait.

But the real point is that we know Rhaegar's eye color was dark lilac. Not brown. So, I think that if RT=MR, then you have to posit a glamour. Which to my mind makes the theory less palatable.

I thought it was established that Baelor Breakspear had brown eyes.

And I agree. One glamour per character I think is enough. Nance was already glamoured as Rattleshirt. Pulling off a glamour over a glamour is a little much.

I don't want to discount it but it seems pretty unlikely to me.

Not that I'm saying Mance can't be Jon's father but the MR=RT is a stretch for me even though it did occur to me some time ago as possible.

There hasn't been enough indication for me that Mance is fibbing about his backstory or that Qhorin or even Aemon had a reason to be in on it or show indication to have been in on it.

For those of you positing these ideas, can you find any text to back this up beyond Mance's interest in Winterfell and that speculation?

[Metopheles]

I thought it was established that Baelor Breakspear had brown eyes.

And I agree. One glamour per character I think is enough. Nance was already glamoured as Rattleshirt. Pulling off a glamour over a glamour is a little much.

I don't want to discount it but it seems pretty unlikely to me.

Not that I'm saying Mance can't be Jon's father but the MR=RT is a stretch for me even though it did occur to me some time ago as possible.

There hasn't been enough indication for me that Mance is fibbing about his backstory or that Qhorin or even Aemon had a reason to be in on it or show indication to have been in on it.

For those of you positing these ideas, can you find any text to back this up beyond Mance's interest in Winterfell and that speculation?

But why even two glamours ?

Mance : Glamour: Rattleshirt volor facaris(or somewhat valyrian)

morphmorphmorph

He could use one glamour and just change at will. Glamours aren't limited to one image.

[JNR]

Melisandre is under glamour. For god knows how long.

And, haha I love these, the animagus Pettigrew was for 13 years a rat. without pause. Why can't GRRM use such a device ? :)

Well, we don't know for sure Melisandre is under glamour; that's just a popular fan idea.

Also, she is a magic-user. If she's under glamour, we know damn well who performed the glamour: she did.

No such case can be made for Rhaegar, as far as I know. I can't think of any magic-users with whom he was associating around the time he died. That he had rubies, and Mel likes rubies, doesn't matter much to me. I'm sure he had red clothing too, just like she does, but still he had no known ability to cast glamours.

I thought it was established that Baelor Breakspear had brown eyes.

No, he is only said to have had "the Dornish look." Eye color is never stated.

The only half-Targaryen male character in the series who undoubtedly shows no Targaryen traits is Bloodraven. And that's because he's an albino.

[Metopheles]

Well, we don't know for sure Melisandre is under glamour; that's just a popular fan idea.

Also, she is a magic-user. If she's under glamour, we know damn well who performed the glamour: she did.

No such case can be made for Rhaegar, as far as I know. I can't think of any magic-users with whom he was associating around the time he died. That he had rubies, and Mel likes rubies, doesn't matter much to me. I'm sure he had red clothing too, just like she does, but still he had no known ability to cast glamours.

Maybe Aemon...being a learned Maester..perhaps he did pick up something.like Luwin's link of valyrian steel.

I know that this is a cracking point...the knowledge part..

Varys...he did apparently not use glamours, only make up and tricks.

I could still go with the theory that the light in the tent was bad and eye colour hard to identify. At some point all dark eyes are black or brown. You have to get up close for a good image. and if Mance's hair and eyebrows are dark, from mud or dye, rather mud and grease, the eyes don't look so blue as if he had white eyebrows.

[Armstark]

Why? It works perfectly. Death of a king does not release KG of their orders. Only the next king can do that and Robert was not officially king when Ned went to the ToJ. I know that Lyanna and even Jon in the ToJ does not seem like enough to guard, but, as we know, orders are orders. As I said, we just don't know enough. We just know that Dayne was not likely to be defeated by Ned.

Your theory is that the order was 'keep Lyanna hostage to ensure Rhaegar's loyalty'. That order clearly makes no sense anymore when Rhaegar and Aerys are dead. They can't ensure Rhaegar's loyalty anymore because he is dead. Why would they still hold her hostage? The man who gave the order and the reason for the order are both dead.

I agree with you that the death of a king does not release the KG of their orders. But the death of Rhaegar and Aerys would release them of this particular order, which is exactly why it could not have been the order that was given to them.

[Modesty Lannister]

Your theory is that the order was 'keep Lyanna hostage to ensure Rhaegar's loyalty'. That order clearly makes no sense anymore when Rhaegar and Aerys are dead. They can't ensure Rhaegar's loyalty anymore because he is dead. Why would they still hold her hostage? The man who gave the order and the reason for the order are both dead.

I agree with you that the death of a king does not release the KG of their orders. But the death of Rhaegar and Aerys would release them of this particular order, which is exactly why it could not have been the order that was given to them.

The order to KG would not be "keep Lyanna hostage to ensure RT loyalty". No order sounds like that. The order would be - guard Lyanna and don't let her go. And so they did.

[Armstark]

The order to KG would not be "keep Lyanna hostage to ensure RT loyalty". No order sounds like that. The order would be - guard Lyanna and don't let her go. And so they did.

So you think they would have stayed at that tower to the end of all time? (if Ned wouldn't have found them) Just camping out in the dornish mountains and guarding Lyanna until they all die? Orders are orders!

They are not stupid. They would know why such a order was given and to what purpose and would act accordingly.

But I am going to stop arguing this now.

[Black Crow]

Your theory is that the order was 'keep Lyanna hostage to ensure Rhaegar's loyalty'. That order clearly makes no sense anymore when Rhaegar and Aerys are dead. They can't ensure Rhaegar's loyalty anymore because he is dead. Why would they still hold her hostage? The man who gave the order and the reason for the order are both dead.

I agree with you that the death of a king does not release the KG of their orders. But the death of Rhaegar and Aerys would release them of this particular order, which is exactly why it could not have been the order that was given to them.

There may be a tendency here to confuse two different things.

Going on what GRRM has told us the three Kings Guard were there because they were carrying out orders. He's also told us that they don't get to pick and choose; orders are orders even if they don't like them. From both that and the responses they give to Ned we can fairly infer that they didn't like the orders they were given because obeying them meant that they failed in their duty. They were not at the Trident and they were not at King's Landing and as a result their king is dead.

Nowhere is another king mentioned and they don't sound too fussed about not going to Dragonstone - because the Kings Guard does not flee.

Now this is where they turn into Ronin.

According to the believers in another place they stand and die at that god-forsaken tower because they are protecting their king, except they're not. Ideally one of them should be carrying the babe off to a place of safety while the other two make sure he gets away. At the very least one of them should be guarding the door. There are only seven attackers and in the end five of the seven were dead. If they'd made a proper fight of it in the tower they could well have come out on top. Instead all three of them came out to fight and die.

Why?

Because their king was dead.

The king they had sworn an oath to defend, Aerys Targaryen first of his name, was dead. They had none of then sworn an oath to Rhaegar, or to Viserys or to the bump in Lya Stark's belly. They swore an oath to Aerys and they had failed him by following orders.

[King Benjen II]

The only thing that comes to mind would be a secret tunnel that leads out of the castle.

BC always leaving people guessing at his half finished thoughts :P

He believes, that "Grendel's Children", the not so nice after all Children of the Forest are deep in the Winterfell Crypts where nobody ever goes.

[Modesty Lannister]

There may be a tendency here to confuse two different things.

Going on what GRRM has told us the three Kings Guard were there because they were carrying out orders. He's also told us that they don't get to pick and choose; orders are orders even if they don't like them. From both that and the responses they give to Ned we can fairly infer that they didn't like the orders they were given because obeying them meant that they failed in their duty. They were not at the Trident and they were not at King's Landing and as a result their king is dead.

Nowhere is another king mentioned and they don't sound too fussed about not going to Dragonstone - because the Kings Guard does not flee.

Now this is where they turn into Ronin.

According to the believers in another place they stand and die at that god-forsaken tower because they are protecting their king, except they're not. Ideally one of them should be carrying the babe off to a place of safety while the other two make sure he gets away. At the very least one of them should be guarding the door. There are only seven attackers and in the end five of the seven were dead. If they'd made a proper fight of it in the tower they could well have come out on top. Instead all three of them came out to fight and die.

Why?

Because their king was dead.

The king they had sworn an oath to defend, Aerys Targaryen first of his name, was dead. They had none of then sworn an oath to Rhaegar, or to Viserys or to the bump in Lya Stark's belly. They swore an oath to Aerys and they had failed him by following orders.

I agree.