Heresy 131 Azor Ahai and the Prince that was Promised

[Frey family reunion]

I agree with Paper Waver that we have no reason to believe that TPTWP is a Valyrian prophecy, in fact I think this argument does a lot to derail the discussion.

1. When Aemon spoke to Sam about the mistranslation of the prophecy, he was speaking about the Maesters of the Citadel not House Targaryens or Valyrians in general. Aemon belongs to the following camps: House Targaryen, Citadel, and the Night's Watch. The group that would have thought of themselves as "so wise" would be the Maesters. Maesters are also in the business of translating.

2. No princes in Valyria a thousand years ago, so why do we assume a prophecy about a prince that was promised is a Valyrian prophecy?

3. For that matter why would there be a mistranslation of Valyrian or Rhoynish, or Ghiscari for that matter, these are all language still spoken today.

4. Why would the Ghost of High Heart make a prediction based on a Valyrian (or any eastern prophecy for that matter)? I understand some witches (like Maggy) are from the east, but is there anything to suggest that the Ghost of High Heart is originally from Essos. Yet this is the one individual that we know makes a prophecy based on the PTWP.

5. Could it be possible that The Prince that was Promised is a Westeros prophecy or more specifically a First Man prophecy? That would explain the fact that the Maesters are having a difficult time in translating it since they would have to translate runes that are no longer in use. This would also explain why TPTWP seems to be so connected in Aemon's mind with the War for the Dawn. This would also explain why a Westerosi woods witch bases her prophecy on this.

6. Is there anything to indicate that House Targaryen was interested in this prophecy before the Wood's Witch told Jaehearys II that the Prince that was Promised would be born from the line of Aerys and Rhaella?

[TheTowerOfJoy]

The original AA, and Lightbringer

With that in mind, I think it's possible that we've already seen several elements within the text that might help us to understand the original AA, or at least the myth of Lightbringer. We've definitely seen someone wielding a magically powered flaming sword: Beric Dondarrion. However, his sword, like Thoros' tourney swords, cannot stand up to the strain, and eventually breaks.

However, if you were to bring together Beric's magic flaming blood trickery with a more durable weapon (Valyrian Steel? Dawn?), might you create a weapon capable of prolonged use in battle? Would the onlookers, witnessing this magically flaming sword, characterize it as 'dragonsteel?'

So, you have some fellow long ago, reborn in fire like Beric, wielding a flaming sword, and eventually tales of him start to make their way East. The truth of the man becomes increasingly lost in the retelling, and as factions like the Red Priests co-opt the myth, the modern story of AA has only fragments of the truth.

I agree completely, which is why I included the Last Hero along in this discussion, as I think that's exactly who was the original Azor Ahai. It's also why I feel the Targaryens are descendents of this person from Westeros who travelled back east, and taking the magic of the old gods along with them.

Further, I believe that the "secret ingredient" in Dragonsteel was obsidian, thus why it took Azor Ahai so long to forge a blade of it, as it's a brittle substance. We know that glass candles (made from obsidian) can burn without being consumed. Thus a steel sword with obsidian sewn into it would be able to burn without being consumed. The problem is that obsidian is so brittle, that it requires some magic to make it fuse completely with the steel. Thus blood sacrifice was required by Azor Ahai to forge his "dragonsteel" sword.

I believe that Nissa Nissa was an early priestess from Asshai, who perhaps had seen the Last Hero in her flames/glass candle and travelled to Westeros to aid him against the Others. Thus when the original AA used her blood to temper his blade, it caught fire, much the way we saw with Beric using his blood to ignite his own blade.

Many years later, I believe the Valyrians re-discovered the process of creating dragonsteel, and perfected it into the creation of "Valyrian Steel", perhaps from the original stories of the Last Hero/Azor Ahai.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

AA reminds me a lot of Gilgamesh (with a hint of Christ thrown in). One thing to note is that the AAR prophecy was recorde in Asshai 5000 years ago, no indication is given as to when AA himself may have been around. His story may have been 5000 years old by the time the "Oracle of Asshai" foretold his return. Just spitballing but I would say that the AA story, about him forging a magic sword and battling monsters, are as old as the hills. At some point around 5000 years ago some random magic user in Asshai had a vision of the future. They see a figure with a burning/glowing sword battling some form of evil. They see a child "born amidst salt and smoke". They see stone dragons moving at the figures command. They see a red light in the sky. Etc etc. So assuming that AA is a well known story in Asshai, the seer connects their vision to AA and predicts his second coming, "under the red star, born amidst salt and smoke, will wake dragons from stone. Azor Ahai Reborn !!" yadda yadda. So the Rh'llorists think this figure is the champion of Rh'llor, as they have a prophecy about a "final battle" where the "Warrior of Light" will be victorious over "The Great Other". At some point the prophecy is co-opted by the Valyrians and later the Targs.

Exactly!

[Amoracchius]

I believe that the SSM statement of this was later retracted, with the poster admitting that he/she made it up. The only other Martin statement I could find that might be taken to confirm it, really only gives us what we have in the books: that Mel thinks they are one and the same. In the HBO "religions of Westeros" GRRM says this:

"In return Melisandre sees that the Lord of Light gives him a token of his role as the Prince that was Promised by ancient prophecy. And that's the sword, Lightbringer"

It is extremely tempting to equate the two prophecies, AAR and the PP, largely because we actually have AAR doing something specific, unlike the PP. Right now, Mel is the only one who has linked these two prophecies. The question might be: how successful will she be in convincing others that they are one and the same, and how, exactly, does it matter? I suppose one way it matters is because the PP prophecy links the savior to House Targaryen.

One final, unrelated point: I've always thought that one viable interpretation of "bleeding star" is the sigil of House Dayne. Or, I suppose, that of Dunk/Brienne.

I interpret the HBO "Religions of Westeros" clip differently than you do. Quick digression to explain my thinking:

The AA story specifically involves the forging of Lightbringer, while the PP prophesy doesn't mention anything about it. Yet, if we go back to the conversation at Castle Black in ASOS, Aemon seems to think that PP will wield Lightbringer and when he uses the term PP when questioning Stannis about his "Lightbringer." Mel doesn't hesitate when connecting AA to PP and Aemon doesn't correct her or even seem to think that part needed correcting. Instead, his only issue was the lack of heat from the sword. This shows at least two in-universe characters who think that PP will wield Lightbringer, despite the fact that Lightbringer was the weapon of AA, strongly implying that AA and PP are one in the same.

Then, GRRM says: "In return Melisandre sees that the Lord of Light gives him a token of his role as the Prince that was Promised by ancient prophecy. And that's the sword, Lightbringer." However, by ancient prophecy, Lightbringer belonged to AA, not PP, so it seems like the author himself is saying that the two figures are one in the same. I suppose he could have been saying the Mel simply thought they were one in the same but I didn't get that impression.

All that having been said, I'm of the opinion that there won't be one savior at the end of all this. I think GRRM is setting up an ending where multiple people acting separately take actions that seem to fulfill prophecies and help bring about the resolution of the story. I think the "bittersweet" part of this will be that most (if not all) of these people will never receive recognition for their heroics. Instead, a new mythology will arise about how the world was saved from a 2nd Long Night, which will include grains of truth, but will be no more helpful or accurate than the prophesies about the 1st Long Night.

[Hrafntýr]

It's wishful thinking from both Aemon and Dany supporters. They have Aemon, a wise man, who's saying Dany's AAR/TPTWP, and they're not pausing to think whether he's really a credible source, or whether he's saying that because he thinks she's the last Targ left.

Yep.Maeter Aemon is a red herring.

But in keeping with the "it's the pursuit of the prophecy not its realization" that matters idea, the question in my mind is: why and for whom does the PP prophecy matter? I mean, who even knows about this prophecy and what might they do with it?

Right now I see only two narrative-driving characters, one living, one dead, whose actions were/are actually shaped by this prophecy: Mel and Rhaegar. Mel's got her whole thing with "king's blood" which may stem from her awareness of the PP prophecy, and she clearly envisions uniting these two prophetic strands and it shapes her behavior. Knowledge of the prophecy seems to have guided Rhaegar's behavior which is, I think, the main reason that we even have the PP tradition, narratively speaking. I have to say, now that we're focusing on AAR/PP, I'm inclined to say that this conjunction lends credence to R+L=J, at least from a narrative perspective, since the two characters "using" the PP prophecy are related to Jon, with Mel likely being the one to finally connect the two in his figure. No idea, though, if Rhaegar was familiar with the AAR prophecy.

That said, although Mel has conflated AAR with the PP, she has, I believe, folded the PP prophecy into the AAR framework: the apocalyptic, end of death etc. scenario is primary, with PP simply adding more details about how to identify AAR and, incidentally, making the prophecy more attractive to a monarchial culture (Westeros). But if the PP prophecy actually contains something about "the song of ice and fire" this seems to stand rather outside the firey vision of AAR.

Again, I'm trying to focus upon the perceptions of characters in the books. I don't think that there IS a predetermined AAR/PP, and people just finally need to get the full information to figure out who it "really" is. Though I could be wrong! After all, that whole business with Aemon pointing out that Stannis' Lightbringer is bogus to some extent says that there are very real (magical) conditions that will need to be met to convince a wider audience. In other words, that little episode suggests that someone may have a sword that really burns and produces heat, rather than being simply a glamour. Which again, serves to con us readers into playing the prophecy game as well, figuring out who is "really" the promised one, rather than focusing upon the perspectives of in-world actors. It's very clever!

[Frey family reunion]

I think Aemon is relying on the same source materials as Melisandre, and ironically it's these source materials that makes Aemon skeptical of Mel's claim that Stannis is AAR.

My thought is that Stannis is involved in these prophecies which is why Mel focuses on him at the outset. However, Mel does not seem content to allow the prophecy to occur organically, she has a need to force the facts to fit her interpretation of her visions. Since she interprets her visions to conclude that Stannis is AAR, she is trying to make Stannis AAR based on her interpretation of how AAR is supposed to be. Interestingly enough her visions are now nudging her towards Jon, so her attention is likewise starting to move away from Stannis and to Jon. I think once again when she satisfies herself with an interpretation of the visions and how Jon fits with the visions, she is going to actively set forth to make Jon fit her interpretation.

I think Rhaegar may have been guilty of the same. While Mel may have conflated TPTWP with AAR, I think Rhaegar has conflated the 3 headed dragon with TPTWP. And like Mel, I think Rhaegar set forth to fulfill the prophecies based on his own interpretations of these prophecies. As a result we get his wooing and possibly kidnapping and impregnating Lyanna.

[Black Crow]

I rather think that this SSM is of some relevance to the present discussion:

Well, the readers are certainly free to wonder about the validity of these religions, the truth of these religions, and the teachings of these religions. I'm a little leery of the word "true" — whether any of these religions are more true than others. I mean, look at the analogue of our real world. We have many religions too. Are some of them more true than others? I don't think any gods are likely to be showing up in Westeros, any more than they already do. We're not going to have one appearing, deus ex machina, to affect the outcomes of things, no matter how hard anyone prays. So the relation between the religions and the various magics that some people have here is something that the reader can try to puzzle out.

Just replace "gods" with Azor Ahai...

As a couple of us have already suggested it may well [and indeed will almost certainly] turn out that there is no one true Azor Ahai, whether in history or yet to come, but rather he or she exists only in so far as people believe so, just as in Varys' story of the King, the Bishop and the Banker.

In that sense Stannis really is Azor Ahai, because Mel believes him to be and acts accordingly, just as Danaerys really is Azor Ahai because Master Benero believes her to be and preaches red war against the Old Blood of Valyria, just as at a lesser level Aegon does indeed live because his followers believe him to be the lost Targaryen prince and act accordingly.

[Hrafntýr]

I interpret the HBO "Religions of Westeros" clip differently than you do. Quick digression to explain my thinking:

The AA story specifically involves the forging of Lightbringer, while the PP prophesy doesn't mention anything about it. Yet, if we go back to the conversation at Castle Black in ASOS, Aemon seems to think that PP will wield Lightbringer and when he uses the term PP when questioning Stannis about his "Lightbringer." Mel doesn't hesitate when connecting AA to PP and Aemon doesn't correct her or even seem to think that part needed correcting. Instead, his only issue was the lack of heat from the sword. This shows at least two in-universe characters who think that PP will wield Lightbringer, despite the fact that Lightbringer was the weapon of AA, strongly implying that AA and PP are one in the same.

Then, GRRM says: "In return Melisandre sees that the Lord of Light gives him a token of his role as the Prince that was Promised by ancient prophecy. And that's the sword, Lightbringer." However, by ancient prophecy, Lightbringer belonged to AA, not PP, so it seems like the author himself is saying that the two figures are one in the same. I suppose he could have been saying the Mel simply thought they were one in the same but I didn't get that impression.

All that having been said, I'm of the opinion that there won't be one savior at the end of all this. I think GRRM is setting up an ending where multiple people acting separately take actions that seem to fulfill prophecies and help bring about the resolution of the story. I think the "bittersweet" part of this will be that most (if not all) of these people will never receive recognition for their heroics. Instead, a new mythology will arise about how the world was saved from a 2nd Long Night, which will include grains of truth, but will be no more helpful or accurate than the prophesies about the 1st Long Night.

That's a totally respectable and supportable interpretation, given the dialogue we're given, but I also feel that there's ample room for doubt. I do read things a little differently. Here's the dialogue (I think it's the one you have in mind; I've cut out other details, focusing just on the dialogue):

Mel (to the assembled NW brothers):Make no mistake, good sers and valiant brothers, the war we've come to fight is no petty squabble over lands and honors. Ours is a war for life itself, and should we fail the world dies with us.

Aemon: It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?

Mel: He stands before you, though you do not have the eyes to see. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai come again, the warrior of fire. In him the prophecies are fulfilled. The red comet blazed across the sky to herald his coming, and he bears Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes.

It's later, after the other brothers have been dismissed that Aemon asks to see the sword and notes the absence of heat or burning of the scabbard.

Now, I agree that this dialogue could be taken as evidence that Aemon agrees with the conflation of the AAR/PP prophecies, but I think it can also be read as Aemon simply testing out what exactly Mel believes about these figures. Interestingly, Aemon here links "the war for the dawn" with the PP. Mel asserts that the prophecies are fulfilled in Stannis, but then goes on to give the AAR title and characteristics. I think it's just as possible that Mel failed to demonstrate her knowledge/understanding of the PP prophecy here as she failed to convince that Stannis is AAR once Aemon was able to discover that the sword doesn't actually burn. Aemon is not one to call people out publicly (after all, he didn't do that with the sword), and there's little reason for him to tell Sam that Mel doesn't seem to know the details of the PP, once it's clear that she's primarily interested in Stannis being AAR.

And yes, I guess I do think that the "religions of Westeros" very cannily confines this AAR=PP equation to Mel. Especially given that it's a segment about what different people in Westeros believe.

[Amoracchius]

That's a totally respectable and supportable interpretation, given the dialogue we're given, but I also feel that there's ample room for doubt. I do read things a little differently. Here's the dialogue (I think it's the one you have in mind; I've cut out other details, focusing just on the dialogue):

Mel (to the assembled NW brothers):Make no mistake, good sers and valiant brothers, the war we've come to fight is no petty squabble over lands and honors. Ours is a war for life itself, and should we fail the world dies with us.

Aemon: It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?

Mel: He stands before you, though you do not have the eyes to see. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai come again, the warrior of fire. In him the prophecies are fulfilled. The red comet blazed across the sky to herald his coming, and he bears Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes.

It's later, after the other brothers have been dismissed that Aemon asks to see the sword and notes the absence of heat or burning of the scabbard.

Now, I agree that this dialogue could be taken as evidence that Aemon agrees with the conflation of the AAR/PP prophecies, but I think it can also be read as Aemon simply testing out what exactly Mel believes about these figures. Interestingly, Aemon here links "the war for the dawn" with the PP. Mel asserts that the prophecies are fulfilled in Stannis, but then goes on to give the AAR title and characteristics. I think it's just as possible that Mel failed to demonstrate her knowledge/understanding of the PP prophecy here as she failed to convince that Stannis is AAR once Aemon was able to discover that the sword doesn't actually burn. Aemon is not one to call people out publicly (after all, he didn't do that with the sword), and there's little reason for him to tell Sam that Mel doesn't seem to know the details of the PP, once it's clear that she's primarily interested in Stannis being AAR.

And yes, I guess I do think that the "religions of Westeros" very cannily confines this AAR=PP equation to Mel. Especially given that it's a segment about what different people in Westeros believe.

Thanks for the response. We can agree to disagree, but I like your analysis a lot. I hadn't remembered Aemon connecting it PP to "the War for the Dawn" (possibly connecting AA and PP to the Last Hero as well). Very interesting stuff. :cheers:

[TheTowerOfJoy]

5. Could it be possible that The Prince that was Promised is a Westeros prophecy or more specifically a First Man prophecy? That would explain the fact that the Maesters are having a difficult time in translating it since they would have to translate runes that are no longer in use. This would also explain why TPTWP seems to be so connected in Aemon's mind with the War for the Dawn. This would also explain why a Westerosi woods witch bases her prophecy on this.

Great points, though more specifically on this one than a "First Men prophecy", I'd say a magical vision experienced by Greendreamers, dragon dreams, and visions in the fire (and possibly the Rhoynish had some sort of similar prophetic visions as well that we just haven't heard completely about).

They're all seeing the future, and interpreting it into their own concept of prophesy.

[Frey family reunion]

I rather think that this SSM is of some relevance to the present discussion:

Well, the readers are certainly free to wonder about the validity of these religions, the truth of these religions, and the teachings of these religions. I'm a little leery of the word "true" — whether any of these religions are more true than others. I mean, look at the analogue of our real world. We have many religions too. Are some of them more true than others? I don't think any gods are likely to be showing up in Westeros, any more than they already do. We're not going to have one appearing, deus ex machina, to affect the outcomes of things, no matter how hard anyone prays. So the relation between the religions and the various magics that some people have here is something that the reader can try to puzzle out.

Just replace "gods" with Azor Ahai...

As a couple of us have already suggested it may well [and indeed will almost certainly] turn out that there is no one true Azor Ahai, whether in history or yet to come, but rather he or she exists only in so far as people believe so, just as in Varys' story of the King, the Bishop and the Banker.

In that sense Stannis really is Azor Ahai, because Mel believes him to be and acts accordingly, just as Danaerys really is Azor Ahai because Master Benero believes her to be and preaches red war against the Old Blood of Valyria, just as at a lesser level Aegon does indeed live because his followers believe him to be the lost Targaryen prince and act accordingly.

Well I do think we have one divine power, which is the Author that Promised us Seven Books. If nothing else the various prophecies and visions are literary clues to the endgame of the series. So while there may not be an Azor Ahai reborn, there will be a character or characters that in retrospect will seem (in probably very unlikely ways) to fulfill the various prophecies and visions. Otherwise, what's the point?

[King of Winters]

I think the whole prophecy thing is trying to be fulfilled by people forcing it onwards. As Hrafntyr said,"only two narrative-driving characters, one living, one dead, whose actions were/are actually shaped by this prophecy: Mel and Rhaegar." If they had not done the things they've done, then perhaps the prophecy wouldn't be as popular, and you wouldn't have people believing they've found "The One" and people thinking they are the saviours.

It reminds me of those stories where someone seeks to change an evil prophecy and avert the danger, and they themselves have made it possible by trying to avert the danger.

[Mithras]

Mel (to the assembled NW brothers):Make no mistake, good sers and valiant brothers, the war we've come to fight is no petty squabble over lands and honors. Ours is a war for life itself, and should we fail the world dies with us.

Aemon: It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?

Mel: He stands before you, though you do not have the eyes to see. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai come again, the warrior of fire. In him the prophecies are fulfilled. The red comet blazed across the sky to herald his coming, and he bears Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes.

I recalled something from AGoT:

Syrio stepped back. “You are dead now.”

Arya made a face. “You cheated,” she said hotly. “You said left and you went right.”

“Just so. And now you are a dead girl.”

“But you lied!”

“My words lied. My eyes and my arm shouted out the truth, but you were not seeing.”

“I was so,” Arya said. “I watched you every second!”

“Watching is not seeing, dead girl. The water dancer sees. Come, put down the sword, it is time for listening now.”

She followed him over to the wall, where he settled onto a bench. “Syrio Forel was first sword to the Sealord of Braavos, and are you knowing how that came to pass?”

“You were the finest swordsman in the city.”

“Just so, but why? Other men were stronger, faster, younger, why was Syrio Forel the best? I will tell you now.” He touched the tip of his little finger lightly to his eyelid. “The seeing, the true seeing, that is the heart of it:

“Hear me. The ships of Braavos sail as far as the winds blow, to lands strange and wonderful, and when they return their captains fetch queer animals to the Sealord’s menagerie. Such animals as you have never seen, striped horses, great spotted things with necks as long as stilts, hairy mouse-pigs as big as cows, stinging manticores, tigers that carry their cubs in a pouch, terrible walking lizards with scythes for claws. Syrio Forel has seen these things.

“On the day I am speaking of, the first sword was newly dead, and the Sealord sent for me. Many bravos had come to him, and as many had been sent away, none could say why. When I came into his presence, he was seated, and in his lap was a fat yellow cat. He told me that one of his captains had brought the beast to him, from an island beyond the sunrise. ‘Have you ever seen her like?’ he asked of me.

“And to him I said, ‘Each night in the alleys of Braavos I see a thousand like him,’ and the Sealord laughed, and that day I was named the first sword.”

Arya screwed up her face. “I don’t understand.”

Syrio clicked his teeth together. “The cat was an ordinary cat, no more. The others expected a fabulous beast, so that is what they saw. How large it was, they said. It was no larger than any other cat, only fat from indolence, for the Sealord fed it from his own table. What curious small ears, they said. Its ears had been chewed away in kitten fights. And it was plainly a tomcat, yet the Sealord said ‘her,’ and that is what the others saw. Are you hearing?”

Arya thought about it. “You saw what was there.”

“Just so. Opening your eyes is all that is needing. The heart lies and the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes see true. Look with your eyes. Hear with your ears. Taste with your mouth. Smell with your nose. Feel with your skin. Then comes the thinking, afterward, and in that way knowing the truth.”

“Just so,” said Arya, grinning.

Mel is the heart that lies (or her heart lies to her) and Aemon’s head played tricks to him. That is why none of them saw the truth.

The funny thing about this example is that the fools took the word of the Sealord about the gender of the cat for real although the cat was clearly in opposite sex to what the Sealord said.

Watching is not seeing is perhaps the best sentence that defines the current deterioration of the NW. They are certainly watching something but they have no idea about what is out there and what they are doing.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

I rather think that this SSM is of some relevance to the present discussion:

Well, the readers are certainly free to wonder about the validity of these religions, the truth of these religions, and the teachings of these religions. I'm a little leery of the word "true" — whether any of these religions are more true than others. I mean, look at the analogue of our real world. We have many religions too. Are some of them more true than others? I don't think any gods are likely to be showing up in Westeros, any more than they already do. We're not going to have one appearing, deus ex machina, to affect the outcomes of things, no matter how hard anyone prays. So the relation between the religions and the various magics that some people have here is something that the reader can try to puzzle out.

Just replace "gods" with Azor Ahai...

As a couple of us have already suggested it may well [and indeed will almost certainly] turn out that there is no one true Azor Ahai, whether in history or yet to come, but rather he or she exists only in so far as people believe so, just as in Varys' story of the King, the Bishop and the Banker.

In that sense Stannis really is Azor Ahai, because Mel believes him to be and acts accordingly, just as Danaerys really is Azor Ahai because Master Benero believes her to be and preaches red war against the Old Blood of Valyria, just as at a lesser level Aegon does indeed live because his followers believe him to be the lost Targaryen prince and act accordingly.

The irony is that it will end up being Jon, who appears to be a Stark bastard to the rest of the world. With that said he won't save the world because of prophecy. He'll fight against his foes out of a sense of duty and because he'll do what he thinks is right. I do think his actions will eventually result in the "saving" of Westeros, and I do think he'll wield a flaming Valyrian steel sword while doing so. I do not think he's in store for a happy ending, however. The sacrifices made along the way will likely drive him back North to become the 1,000th Lord Commander and to re-build (or finish tearing down) the Wall depending on whether the resolution with the Others is a military or diplomatic one.

[King of Winters]

Watching is not seeing is perhaps the best sentence that defines the current deterioration of the NW. They are certainly watching something but they have no idea about what is out there and what they are doing.

Or perhaps they're watching the wrong thing. They're watching for the coming WW and their legions of wights, but the real danger is elsewhere.

[Lord Ravenstark]

I am back. I suppose. I am here now so let's start.

Completely agreed. Aemon was wrong all his life. He did not know many things such as Jon's real father or fAegon. So why should we think that he got it right just before he died from fever?

“I remembered that, so I allowed myself to hope . . . perhaps I wanted to . . . we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think.”

said the crow to the raven.

And we got it again. Maybe there's no "real father", you can't blame him for not knowing something that may be just a fan guess. Also, there was no way to Maester Aemon to know about fAegon, be he real or not.

I recalled something from AGoT:

Syrio stepped back. “You are dead now.”

Arya made a face. “You cheated,” she said hotly. “You said left and you went right.”

“Just so. And now you are a dead girl.”

“But you lied!”

“My words lied. My eyes and my arm shouted out the truth, but you were not seeing.”

“I was so,” Arya said. “I watched you every second!”

“Watching is not seeing, dead girl. The water dancer sees. Come, put down the sword, it is time for listening now.”

She followed him over to the wall, where he settled onto a bench. “Syrio Forel was first sword to the Sealord of Braavos, and are you knowing how that came to pass?”

“You were the finest swordsman in the city.”

“Just so, but why? Other men were stronger, faster, younger, why was Syrio Forel the best? I will tell you now.” He touched the tip of his little finger lightly to his eyelid. “The seeing, the true seeing, that is the heart of it:

“Hear me. The ships of Braavos sail as far as the winds blow, to lands strange and wonderful, and when they return their captains fetch queer animals to the Sealord’s menagerie. Such animals as you have never seen, striped horses, great spotted things with necks as long as stilts, hairy mouse-pigs as big as cows, stinging manticores, tigers that carry their cubs in a pouch, terrible walking lizards with scythes for claws. Syrio Forel has seen these things.

“On the day I am speaking of, the first sword was newly dead, and the Sealord sent for me. Many bravos had come to him, and as many had been sent away, none could say why. When I came into his presence, he was seated, and in his lap was a fat yellow cat. He told me that one of his captains had brought the beast to him, from an island beyond the sunrise. ‘Have you ever seen her like?’ he asked of me.

“And to him I said, ‘Each night in the alleys of Braavos I see a thousand like him,’ and the Sealord laughed, and that day I was named the first sword.”

Arya screwed up her face. “I don’t understand.”

Syrio clicked his teeth together. “The cat was an ordinary cat, no more. The others expected a fabulous beast, so that is what they saw. How large it was, they said. It was no larger than any other cat, only fat from indolence, for the Sealord fed it from his own table. What curious small ears, they said. Its ears had been chewed away in kitten fights. And it was plainly a tomcat, yet the Sealord said ‘her,’ and that is what the others saw. Are you hearing?”

Arya thought about it. “You saw what was there.”

“Just so. Opening your eyes is all that is needing. The heart lies and the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes see true. Look with your eyes. Hear with your ears. Taste with your mouth. Smell with your nose. Feel with your skin. Then comes the thinking, afterward, and in that way knowing the truth.”

“Just so,” said Arya, grinning.

Mel is the heart that lies (or her heart lies to her) and Aemon’s head played tricks to him. That is why none of them saw the truth.

The funny thing about this example is that the fools took the word of the Sealord about the gender of the cat for real although the cat was clearly in opposite sex to what the Sealord said.

Watching is not seeing is perhaps the best sentence that defines the current deterioration of the NW. They are certainly watching something but they have no idea about what is out there and what they are doing.

Cannot agree more.

But when you do have three eyes, can your mind still play tricks with you?

[Frey family reunion]

I recalled something from AGoT:

Syrio stepped back. “You are dead now.”

Arya made a face. “You cheated,” she said hotly. “You said left and you went right.”

“Just so. And now you are a dead girl.”

“But you lied!”

“My words lied. My eyes and my arm shouted out the truth, but you were not seeing.”

“I was so,” Arya said. “I watched you every second!”

“Watching is not seeing, dead girl. The water dancer sees. Come, put down the sword, it is time for listening now.”

She followed him over to the wall, where he settled onto a bench. “Syrio Forel was first sword to the Sealord of Braavos, and are you knowing how that came to pass?”

“You were the finest swordsman in the city.”

“Just so, but why? Other men were stronger, faster, younger, why was Syrio Forel the best? I will tell you now.” He touched the tip of his little finger lightly to his eyelid. “The seeing, the true seeing, that is the heart of it:

“Hear me. The ships of Braavos sail as far as the winds blow, to lands strange and wonderful, and when they return their captains fetch queer animals to the Sealord’s menagerie. Such animals as you have never seen, striped horses, great spotted things with necks as long as stilts, hairy mouse-pigs as big as cows, stinging manticores, tigers that carry their cubs in a pouch, terrible walking lizards with scythes for claws. Syrio Forel has seen these things.

“On the day I am speaking of, the first sword was newly dead, and the Sealord sent for me. Many bravos had come to him, and as many had been sent away, none could say why. When I came into his presence, he was seated, and in his lap was a fat yellow cat. He told me that one of his captains had brought the beast to him, from an island beyond the sunrise. ‘Have you ever seen her like?’ he asked of me.

“And to him I said, ‘Each night in the alleys of Braavos I see a thousand like him,’ and the Sealord laughed, and that day I was named the first sword.”

Arya screwed up her face. “I don’t understand.”

Syrio clicked his teeth together. “The cat was an ordinary cat, no more. The others expected a fabulous beast, so that is what they saw. How large it was, they said. It was no larger than any other cat, only fat from indolence, for the Sealord fed it from his own table. What curious small ears, they said. Its ears had been chewed away in kitten fights. And it was plainly a tomcat, yet the Sealord said ‘her,’ and that is what the others saw. Are you hearing?”

Arya thought about it. “You saw what was there.”

“Just so. Opening your eyes is all that is needing. The heart lies and the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes see true. Look with your eyes. Hear with your ears. Taste with your mouth. Smell with your nose. Feel with your skin. Then comes the thinking, afterward, and in that way knowing the truth.”

“Just so,” said Arya, grinning.

Mel is the heart that lies (or her heart lies to her) and Aemon’s head played tricks to him. That is why none of them saw the truth.

The funny thing about this example is that the fools took the word of the Sealord about the gender of the cat for real although the cat was clearly in opposite sex to what the Sealord said.

Watching is not seeing is perhaps the best sentence that defines the current deterioration of the NW. They are certainly watching something but they have no idea about what is out there and what they are doing.

Not sure why you made it a spoiler, but I like the analogy with the lying heart from Syrio and Melisandre.

Interestingly enough we have another red eyed character associated with a heart heart that seems fairly trustworthy, the Ghost of High Heart. Unlike Melisandre who puts herself and her beliefs between her visions and the characters that she interacts with, the Ghost, doesn't bother trying to interprete any of her visions to her audience. She just sets forth what she dreams and lets everyone figure it out. I wonder when she was younger if she took the same tact as Melisandre and perhaps helped steer events towards the Summerhall tragedy.

[Black Crow]

Well I do think we have one divine power, which is the Author that Promised us Seven Books. If nothing else the various prophecies and visions are literary clues to the endgame of the series. So while there may not be an Azor Ahai reborn, there will be a character or characters that in retrospect will seem (in probably very unlikely ways) to fulfill the various prophecies and visions. Otherwise, what's the point?

The point, I think, is what King of the Starks said. The point is not that somebody will be identified retrospectively or otherwise as Azor Ahaii, the rightful heir to the Iron Throne or even Rumpelstiltskin. What matters is that the world is descending into bloody chaos, spiralling into the Heart of Darkness, because various parties whether through faith, avarice or even sheer bloody-mindedness are intent on making this particular Manx cat.

[oursisthefury69]

Never understood how there's so much debate over the Azor Ahai and Prince that was Promised connection/interchangeability. I think its pretty clear that the prophecy of Azor Ahai being "reborn " predates the terming of TPTWP. I think TPTWP is simply a name derived from the Targaryens lineage being prophesized to produce AA reborn, in such making him a "prince".

[Mithras]

And we got it again. Maybe there's no "real father", you can't blame him for not knowing something that may be just a fan guess. Also, there was no way to Maester Aemon to know about fAegon, be he real or not.

They important thing is that Aemon did not have some key knowledge. Assuming R+L=J and Aemon knew that as well as Aegon’s presumed survival, would he still claim that Dany is the AAR so fiercely? Perhaps he would think that these three are the three heads of the dragon like every average reader assumes (something which I don’t buy too).

Marwyn quoted Gorghan of Old Ghis when he said why he did not trust prophecies like Aemon did. Still, he wanted to go and see these dragons and Dany himself before believing that she is the fulfillment of the prophecies, something Aemon never thought. That makes Marwyn a much better authority than Aemon because he does not believe in prophecies blindly (no pun intended).

Not sure why you made it a spoiler, but I like the analogy with the lying heart from Syrio and Melisandre.

Interestingly enough we have another red eyed character associated with a heart heart that seems fairly trustworthy, the Ghost of High Heart. Unlike Melisandre who puts herself and her beliefs between her visions and the characters that she interacts with, the Ghost, doesn't bother trying to interprete any of her visions to her audience. She just sets forth what she dreams and lets everyone figure it out. I wonder when she was younger if she took the same tact as Melisandre and perhaps helped steer events towards the Summerhall tragedy.

It was a long quote so I put it in spoiler for convenience.

GHH does not interpret her dreams, true. The only time she does that is after her dream comes true. We know that she dreamt Balon's death first and she told that the kraken king was dead next time Arya saw her.

But GHH also knows very usual stuff like the whereabouts of Beric etc. She also told them about the wedding which was not red yet. Perhaps she sees some pretty straightforward dreams too and that gives her clear information about the present.

Maybe the prophetic dreams of future are vague/symbolic but the ones showing the present or the past have no ambiguity.

About her grief; I agree that she might be a victim of Gorghan, i.e. she trusted in a dream that she interpreted wrong and that turned out to be a disaster (Tragedy of Summerhal).