R+L=J v.114

[Alia of the knife]

Are there any clues as to when Aerys and Rhaegar started having issues, and does anyone think Aerys had a hand in the Summerhall tragedy?

[Greymoon]

That part about someone behind the events leading to Robellion just like there was LF behind Wot5K has been proposed before. I never realized that Brandon-Jaime parallel but to develop on the general theme, it has been suggested that someone told Jaime where to look for Ned, just as someone might have intentionally misinformed Brandon.

Yes, I'm aware of that ;) I'd never realized the parallels before though either. Or that in some ways the Lannisters were sort of pushed into the role of the Starks right at the start of RR; though the circumstances are vastly different. Also, I'm more of the opinion that Rhaegar was trying to do damage control at first, when he "stumbled" upon Lyanna, so that the parallel is not actually Rhaegar/Cat, Lyanna/Tyrion but rather Cat's action find echo in a Rhaegar/Aerys dynamic. I know this is nothing really new either, but it's interesting how GRRM creates these little things... and when Jaime and Ned face off; Ned who's playing the role of the KG at the TOJ, has just come back from meeting the King's own bastard...

.................

...As for the matter of royal marriages (that I've seen mentioned quite often lately on the forum...) I imagine, that normally in westeros, the King must always give his consent for a royal wedding -- no matter the sort and thus the question of the King's consent cannot be used as a argument against bigamy...

Also, if a royal marriage was done without the King's consent, while the secrecy of the act might be punishable and viewed as treason, it remains that the marriage itself would be legal because a King does not have the authority to annul a marriage sealed before the Gods. In RW, it was the Pope and only the Pope who had that authority, if a King meant to dissolve a marriage he had to appeal to the Pope >>The Crown is not invested with the moral and religious authority required for such matters.

In the case of Rhaegar and Lyanna, in the case of westeros -- we have multiple belief systems co-existing side by side. In the south, I imagine any old Septon can marry two people, but only the High Septon has the capacity to actually undo a marriage once it has been consummated. In the north matters are a bit different -- but, I'll just leave that aside for now and consider it as relatively unimportant.

What is important, is what religious authority, or belief system one recognizes as legitimate. What is important for our case also, is whose "political" authority is recognized as legitimate, and by whom... in short -- from whose vantage point we are looking at matters and arguing.

We have:

• multiple belief systems (the Old Gods; the Seven; the Drowned God; R'hllor)

a possible political schism between King and Crown Prince

multiple and coexisting marriage institutions (monogamy; salt-marriages; marriage by capture; and a tradition for bigamy)

Here, our hypothetical vantage points are Rhaegar + Rhaegar's supporters vs. Aerys + Aerys's supporters. Where "supporters" included not only Lords, Kingsguards and what not, but also religious figures....

...If Rhaegar meant to overthrow his father, then Aery's consent to Rhaegar's hypothetical marriage becomes rather entirely irrelevant. And if Rhaegar had succeeded, the illegality or amorality of bigamy becomes secondary, I think, especially in a kingdom where the ruling house has a tradition for sibling marriages and where bigamy once was a royal prerogative...

One could imagine, that if Rhaegar had taken a crown, and if bigamy caused much uproar, he could also have found a way to have one of his marriages set aside -- and in that case Elia's health and inability to provide more heirs would have given him a legitimate ground for "divorce". In any case, the point is, if Rhaegar could crown himself, he could find a way to have his marriage to Lyanna recognized as legal after the fact, too.

(Also, as we've seen through Cersei, and there's enough RW examples for that as well, a monarch will oft meddle in religious institutions to gather said institution's support.... and who would argue with a High Septon?)

It's true that we have little evidence of a plot to overthrow Aerys . Unless, of course we do, but have not recognized the pieces of evidence we have for what they are, since Rhaegar ultimately failed to achieve his goal. I'd wager, the plan failed before it was truly set in motion, thus forcing Rhaegar to backtrack rather quickly. (Hence Hightower's apparent loyalty to Aerys; and Rhaegar's return to Kingslanding). I've become persuaded that "kidnapping" Lyanna was a political move, motivated by Rhaegar's affection for her; a prophecy, and Elia's declining health -- but ultimately a political move and that Rhaegar hoped to gain the Starks as allies (and the Tullys while he was at it) but that his plan backfired rather horribly.

[BearQueen87]

Are there any clues as to when Aerys and Rhaegar started having issues, and does anyone think Aerys had a hand in the Summerhall tragedy?

Don't know about the first. As to the second...I'm not sure. I think something went very wrong at Summerhall (more than just "let's play with fire and hatch some dragons"). My big question is why didn't Dunk save Egg? If his first duty is to save his King why didn't he make sure Egg was out and safe first? Either Egg ordered Dunk to save Rhaella--and thus Rhaegar--first, or something went...slightly crazed...with Egg. Things are fishy with Summerhall.

[Greymoon]

The first A: small council members set Aerys against Rhaegar?

I'm hesitating between pointing fingers at Varys or at Tywin, for destabilizing the realm and/or leading to an escalation of the conflict....

[Kingmonkey]

(...) already names Rhaella pregnant, which we know they couldn't have known yet.. So why is it so strange to consider that "new heir, Viserys", is also simply Yandel, and not Aerys?

If it just said "heir, Viserys" that would be an excellent point, but the word "new" seems pretty specific. It's saying that Viserys is newly the heir, thus something had newly changed at that point to make him heir. Could be Viserys had been previously been given precedence over Rhaegar's dornish-smelling children and what was new was Rhaegar's death, or could be Viserys was newly named heir after Rhaegar's death, but something has to make it new there.

Of course there's the alternative possibility that Yandel is lying or wrong, but it seems clear that the claim is that Viserys was heir at that point in time.

On Viserys' claim to the throne, Jaime has an interesting memory in ASOS. He has just killed Aerys and Roland Crakehall finds him in the throne room. Jaime orders Crakehall to announce the death of the king.

So when he thinks of proclaiming a new Targaryen king, he thinks first of Viserys and only second of Aegon. This may be a hint that Jaime

knew that Viserys was the "new heir" as soon as Rhaegar died

This may just be a narrative bias rather than a character bias. Viserys is an actual known character in the books, after all. That's a very interesting observation though!

[Alia of the knife]

Don't know about the first. As to the second...I'm not sure. I think something went very wrong at Summerhall (more than just "let's play with fire and hatch some dragons"). My big question is why didn't Dunk save Egg? If his first duty is to save his King why didn't he make sure Egg was out and safe first? Either Egg ordered Dunk to save Rhaella--and thus Rhaegar--first, or something went...slightly crazed...with Egg. Things are fishy with Summerhall.

Just wondering if Aerys didn't have a hand in making himself king, which would acount for his own distrust of his son.

Its kind of like the same theory of the jealous ones being the cheaters.

[Alia of the knife]

Again, Rhaegar wouldn't necessarily need to marry Lyanna to achieve those political results.

Win her admiration, she influences Robert who is already Rhaegars cousin, her father and then in turn influences Brandon and the Tullys, Rhaegar has his support.

Doing as he did alienated those factions, so it seems a convoluted way to win support.

[BearQueen87]

Just wondering if Aerys didn't have a hand in making himself king, which would acount for his own distrust of his son.

Its kind of like the same theory of the jealous ones being the cheaters.

I wouldn't put it past him. From the World Book

He seemed very energetic and determined to be "the best king EVAR!!!!!!!" but his plans were always too big, too weird, too costly, and too outrageous

[Alia of the knife]

I wouldn't put it past him. From the World Book

He seemed very energetic and determined to be "the best king EVAR!!!!!!!" but his plans were always too big, too weird, too costly, and too outrageous

Exactly, and the manic energy that can turn on a dime.

[Kingmonkey]

Are there any clues as to when Aerys and Rhaegar started having issues, and does anyone think Aerys had a hand in the Summerhall tragedy?

I'd guess that the friction between Aerys and Rhaegar was something that grew over time. We heard that at the Lannisport tourney, the crowd cheered twice as much for Tywin as for the king, and twice as much for Rhaegar as for Tywin. That can't have gone down well with Aerys. Later that year Aerys was imprisoned at Duskendale, and Brienne recalls being taught by a maester that the defiance at Duskendale is what sent Aerys over the edge. From then on Aerys was increasingly paranoid, and it's easy to see how he'd increasingly come to see Rhaegar as a threat.

There's this:

"Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary … but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful." King Aerys was one such. By the end, even Rhaegar saw that plain enough.

... which implies that the issues between Rhaegar and Aerys were probably rather one-sided for most of the time. Jon Connington may not have been part of Rhaegar's inner circle of conspirators, but this does rather imply that he felt that it took Rhaegar a while to accept the degree of Aerys' paranoia towards him.

What I'm really interested in knowing is if Varys was intentionally agitating the whole situation.

[BearQueen87]

What I'm really interested in knowing is if Varys was intentionally agitating the whole situation.

To what end? If his plan is to put a Blackfyre on the throne a la fAegon but in the guise of a perfect Targaryen prince, then you need a Blackfyre who has been taught to be a perfect Targaryen prince which he wouldn't have at the time of Aerys. I think Varys was comfy in his position and the power and credence he was getting at court. Too early to make a move. Now, had Rhaegar succeeded in overthrowing Aerys, he might have moved on his plans more.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Rhaegar and Lyanna =Wylla Manderly .

[Alia of the knife]

Rhaegar and Lyanna =Wylla Manderly .

A conspirator after my own heart. :)

[The Twinslayer]

This may just be a narrative bias rather than a character bias. Viserys is an actual known character in the books, after all. That's a very interesting observation though!

That is possible, of course, but I don't read it that way. ASOS is riddled with references to Aegon. I think that is because GRRM was setting things up for the introduction of Young Griff in what he thought at the time would be the next book. In contrast, Viserys' story was mostly finished at that point.

I think it is particularly interesting that Jaime thought of Viserys before Aegon as the next dragon king because at the time Viserys was on Dragonstone, under the control of Targ loyalists, while Aegon was easily within his grasp. So when he thought about it, he would have an interest in Aegon's claim being stronger than Viserys' claim. Yet he thought first of Viserys.

[The Twinslayer]

A conspirator after my own heart. :)

Is this a serious theory? I am not familiar with it. I would like to hear more.

[IceFire125]

I thought about what the conversation was that might have revolved around marriages and between Rhaegar and his parents.

Young Aerys: Father, why must I marry my sister? I have eyes for another, IT'S NOT FAIR! YOU MARRIED FOR LOVE, I would like to do the same!.

King Jaehaerys II: SILENCE! I AM THE KING! this is no concern of yours, follow my orders, I'm doing this because I believe that the PTWP will come from your line with Rhaella. Rhaella, do your duty!

Young Rhaella: Yes, Father, we will obey your command.

---

Years passed...

Queen Rhaella: My king, it's past time to appoint Rhaegar a suitable wife. He has told me that he would like a woman of his choosing, yet he does not go and meet the Lords and their maidens. He always travel to Summerhall and he's been in the palace library reading everyday, always playing on his harp, this is ever since him wanting to be a warrior.

King Aerys II: Steffon failed to find one of a noble Valyrian descent, I don't care anymore, you decide.

---

After the Tourney at Lannisport...

Aerys: Did you hear? Tywin actually think that his daughter is good enough for Rhaegar? the fool.

Rhaella: I am in conversation with the Martells, their daughter Elia, she would suit Rhaegar and further our alliance with Dorne.

Aerys: I agree. Send emissary to Dorne for their audience here in KL.

---

Rhaegar, the King and Queen discuss the woman he should marry...

Young Rhaegar: Father, I believe I'm very close, give me time to find who I will take as wife, who I will love (still believing he is the PTWP).

Aerys: No, she will be Elia Martell.

Rhegar: Please Father, just a little more time--

Aerys: SILENCE! enough with that prophecy. As the King, I order you to marry Elia Martell, you will perform your duty and produce a male heir! I did not marry for love, neither should you.

Rhaegar: Yes, Father, I will do as you command.

I believe in the theory that the moment Aegon was born, Rhaegar had another prophetic dream--linking it with Dany's vision...

he sees a female (Dany) and conclude that yes, the dragon does have 3 heads, thinking that Dany is that 3rd head...

Rhaegar then pick up his harp, goes to the window seat and play (playing his harp is an event that happens in other tourneys not just Harrenhal), but at Harrenhal is when Lyanna heard Rhaegar's call (song).

All this time I believe Rhaegar was waiting for the song (call to audience, a call to the old gods), to be heard by the right woman. I believe Lyanna's response was unique enough for Rhaegar to notice. Bookish as he is, research who house Stark is... lo and behold, his connection with ICE.

Rhaegar then conclude that Lyanna was the one, but she's betrothed to another, his cousin... he must force her hand, but did not expect it was Lyanna who not only agree with his plans, but fell in love with him.

The crown prince put the road plan into action, because "...well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken."

Sorry for the rambling, I think there's something to Rhaegar's song as he played the harp, the notes, on the silvery strings may have sounds of the old gods, sound of the language of ancient times, long before the First Men was in Westeros.

I believe, that if Lyanna can distinguished such a music/sound/note, react to it where it's enough for Rhaegar to noticed (a lot of women cried, but something made Rhaegar noticed about Lyanna), then I feel Jon may have such ability as well--recall to how he was able to find Ghost. ^_^

My apologies for something that may be far-fetched.

[Kingmonkey]

To what end? If his plan is to put a Blackfyre on the throne a la fAegon but in the guise of a perfect Targaryen prince, then you need a Blackfyre who has been taught to be a perfect Targaryen prince which he wouldn't have at the time of Aerys. I think Varys was comfy in his position and the power and credence he was getting at court. Too early to make a move. Now, had Rhaegar succeeded in overthrowing Aerys, he might have moved on his plans more.

That's a really good question. Varys seems to have encouraged Aerys' paranoia, but that's about all there is to go on. Given almost everyone assumed that Rhaegar would be a much better king than Aerys, why wouldn't Varys have been on the side of Rhaegar if he was all for stability at this point? It could be a divide and conquer tactic, but I can't help but think of the discussion he has with Kevan at the end of DWD, and wonder if he saw Aerys a similar way to how he saw Cersei.

The length of time Varys spent at KL seems rather long for a Blackfyre plot without a Blackfyre pretender on the horizon. Maybe there was another Blackfyre pretender they had in mind at the time, and Robert's Rebellion totally messed up the plans for it. I'm not convinced of Varys as Blackfyre though, and wouldn't be too surprised to find out that Varys & Illyrio's plans for Westeros are more about Essos than they are for Westeros in the endgame. Who knows, maybe it's part of a long game to bankrupt the Iron Bank or something.

[Kingmonkey]

Is this a serious theory? I am not familiar with it. I would like to hear more.

I'm not sure if there's anyone out there who takes it that seriously, but it's quite a fun thought. Roughly the theory goes:

1. Wylla Manderly was born about the right time.

2. Wylla Manderly has the same name as the alleged wet-nurse of Jon.

3. Wylla Manderly has blonde hair that she dyes odd colours, and is therefore a hidden Targ in disguise, just like Aegon is(n't).

4. Wylla Manderly is very pro-Stark (Personally I think that entire conversation was 100% rehearsed Manderly scheming, but whatever).

5. Wylla Manderly is outspoken and obviously much more Aryaesque than Sansaish, making her clearly the daughter of Lyanna.

6. Wylla Manderly is kind of cool.

Therefore R+L=W or R+L=J+W. If you want to go the whole hog and suggest that Howland took the third twin, R+L=J+W+M and the three heads of the dragon are all in the North.

[finger]

How does this passage come into play now that we have the World Book?

“Far be it from me to question your cunning, Father, but in your place I do believe I’d have let Robert Baratheon bloody his own hands.”

Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. “You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert’s cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert’s relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar’s children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure.

How does this passage come into play now that we have the World Book?

“Far be it from me to question your cunning, Father, but in your place I do believe I’d have let Robert Baratheon bloody his own hands.”

Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. “You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert’s cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert’s relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar’s children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure.

[. :)

Ergo, Aegon's corpse was a fake.

Ergo, they coudn't find him.

Crazy Aerys thought the Dornish had bretrayed him, so he intended to have Elia and her daughter killed with himself.

He had left Rhaella flee with Viserys and Aegon was pretty safe long ago.

Easy thoughts for a mad man. No need to infer too much.

[Greymoon]

Again, Rhaegar wouldn't necessarily need to marry Lyanna to achieve those political results.

Win her admiration, she influences Robert who is already Rhaegars cousin, her father and then in turn influences Brandon and the Tullys, Rhaegar has his support.

Doing as he did alienated those factions, so it seems a convoluted way to win support.

Agreed, unless there was something else going on and there was a need to gain Stark's support and break off the Stark/Baratheon alliance at the same time...also it need not have been only a political move -- as I said earlier, Rhaegar's decision may have been political, though that doesn't exclude that it was influenced by his affection for Lyanna, Elia's health problems and a prophecy.

We also have no idea about Rhaegar's relationship to Robert, or Rickard's character thus we do not know that Lyanna could have influenced them at all. (especially in views of Robert's treatment of women). I find it telling that Rickard does not attend the tournament of Harrenhal. He sends all of his children but not himself to a tournament that both the King and crown Prince are attending and is one of the most important events in decades. Personally, I'd be curious to know how many northmen actually attended and wouldn't be surprised to find out few did.

It can also be that Rhaegar was in fact doing damage control. There's the KotLT possibility that has been discussed before; but even without going in that direction I believe Aerys could have had reasons to take Lyanna away from her betrothed. According to RW history, marriages between powerful houses required a King's consent, and even where there was no consent required it oft became a matter of strife.

It does not seem that consent was deemed necessary in Westeros, but I would absolutely not be surprised if Aerys decided that he did not like the Stark/Baratheon match. He and his councilors would have had to be utter idiots to allow a Stark/Baratheon match to take place, right after the Stark/Tully one and particularly in views of the fostering relationship with heir-less Jon Arryn.

That was one potentially powerful power block no matter the motivations behind it. Robert might have loved Lyanna, Jon Arryn might have had no ambitions, Tully and Stark might only have been good pals with no political agenda etc. their true motivations is completely irrelevant, the only thing that matters is how it appears.

I'm not saying I adhere totally and completely to a southron ambition theory -- but, when we look at facts, and only facts, from the point of view of Aerys and his councilors, it might have looked like the north was either plotting a coup, or even planning secession.

I mention secession, because I do not believe that the readiness with which the northerners declared Robb King was a coincidence at all -- I think, it was a long time coming, and that decades before Robb's crowning, there was already a desire to break away from King's Landing.

As for the coup, it would be hard to overlook that Robert Baratheon was the King's own kin -- he had a claim on the Iron Throne, through blood. I'm speaking of two distinct possibilities here, not both at the same time -- though maybe the truth lies somewhat in between a coup and secession.