My problem with Aegon being a Blackfyre

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Look like Dany :dunno: I don't so. They may have trait that may pass as Targ to an Essos Native, but but Varys, JonCon, Tyrion, know the family resemeblance, and that is key above all else.

Uh, yeah. Like the prostitute Jorah was having sex with. She reminded him of Dany. The resemblance is silver hair and purple eyes. Those are the features, and plenty of people in Essos have them. Varys is in on the scheme, Tyrion was a child when the Targaryens were exiled and JonCon is in denial.

Tyrion immediately say after guessing the kids age that he was always bad at guessing people ages.

And that means he MUST be wrong about this one?

In a long time interview GRRM said that Rhenyes was 100% dead but said nothing of Aegon. People begin to speculated from then on who and where was he. Now that he's been shown, no one believe him.

Well fucking obviously if he had said they both died, people would know that this Aegon is fraud. What, you think he's going to come right out and say in an interview that it isn't actually Aegon? Get real.

[J. Stargaryen]

Because what possible proof could there be? Birth certificates? Don't exist. DNA test? Not invented. Eyewitness testimony? If Aegon loses, that's great. If Aegon wins, it doesn't matter.

<snip>

Again, NOBODY IN THE RED KEEP WILL EVER ADMIT THAT AEGON ISNT REAL. Which means that Varys could tell every single one of them all about Aegon's life and it wouldn't make a difference. It wouldn't change their behavior in any way. They're already saying he's a fake. They'll continue saying he's a fake. Because that's the most advantageous thing for them to say. The reality of his legitimacy doesn't matter to them.

There's no reason to think that anyone's there. In fact, there's every reason to think that the children are watching the passage to make sure that nobody is there. And if there was somebody there, which again, there ISN'T, they would, you know, walk into the chambers that they were clearing heading towards. They wouldn't stand outside and eavesdrop.

Perhaps, and it reminds me of a passage from AFfC, The Queenmaker (Arianne I):

Arianne raised a tear-streaked face. “How could he know?” she asked the captain. “I was so careful. How could he know?”

“Someone told.” Hotah shrugged. “Someone always tells.”

I don't agree that it won't matter. How do you think, for example, Jon Con would feel if he found out that he was raising a Blackfyre pretender and not Rhaegar's son?

The point is that this discussion always begins with the question: Why would Varys lie to a dying man? The answer to which is, there's no upside in telling the truth. We don't really need to hash out all of the details beyond that point.

You seem to be under the impression that rumors of him being fake will only exist if someone overhears Varys say it. Which really just doesn't make sense. Win or lose rumors of him being fake will always be circulated.

I never said that people might think he's fake only if someone overhears Varys. But I think rumor and innuendo that he's vaguely fake is different from specific knowledge that he's a Blackfyre. Again, put yourself in Jon Con's shoes to understand why.

Nobody is saying Varys should have launched into Aegon's life story, his motivations, his lineage, his favorite song, what he likes to do at night, ect. Here "'Kevan: "Aegon is dead"

"Varys: Yes he is""

There. Problem solved. No one mention of Blackfyre would ever have to come up.

And just tell the audience that Aegon is a Blackfyre, or at least a fake? Why? If Aegon is a Blackfyre, GRRM intends for it to be a mystery, agreed? If that's the case, then I'm sure you understand why it would make no sense for him to spoil the mystery he created.

---

Btw, I believe GRRM is using Aegon to set up a Dance of the Dragons + Blackfyre Rebellion, which I think is kind of cool. Just a little fyi for the thread. :)

[Attitude]

I think I see the point you're trying to make. GRRM is making the point of R+L=J and Aegon=legit but introduces red herrings (Wylla, etc. and Blackfyre references, etc) to draw us from the truth, no?

No sorry not really.

I think that most readers will see R+L=J as a surprise (they didn’t knew anything about it)

In comparison to that, I think Aegon = Fake ‘will not be a surprise’ (assuming for now that he is fake) for most readers. Because it feels so obvious that he is fake (mummers dragon, etc).

Because he seems so obviously fake, I think it might be real; hence the ‘double bluff’. I don’t have any proof for it really, but it’s a bit of a gut feeling.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think I see the point you're trying to make. GRRM is making the point of R+L=J and Aegon=legit but introduces red herrings (Wylla, etc. and Blackfyre references, etc) to draw us from the truth, no?

I think you have your wires crossed.

The difference between Aegon being legitimate and R+L=J is that the former is explicit in the text and the latter is implied. Wylla and Ashara being Jon's mother are red herrings because it is explicitly said that they are his mother. Conversely, Aegon being a Blackfyre is never explicitly said to us in-text. It's Aegon being legitimate that is what's explicit, not Aegon being fake.

Aegon being legitimate is in the same vein as Wylla being Jon's mother, in that we are told straight up that that is the case. But the subtext says otherwise.

[Attitude]

I think you have your wires crossed.

The difference between Aegon being legitimate and R+L=J is that the former is explicit in the text and the latter is implied. Wylla and Ashara being Jon's mother are red herrings because it is explicitly said that they are his mother. Conversely, Aegon being a Blackfyre is never explicitly said to us in-text. It's Aegon being legitimate that is what's explicit, not Aegon being fake.

Aegon being legitimate is in the same vein as Wylla being Jon's mother, in that we are told straight up that that is the case. But the subtext says otherwise.

This is never confirmed by anyone who could know for sure that this is true. This is also a big difference. Even though it is (explicitly) said in the books, it doesn’t mean it’s not a red herring. The fact that Ned never confirmes it, makes it a red herring I guess.

[Maid So Fair]

I don't think this is really true as while in the previous books there are only limited (but very much present) references to the Blackfyres, including the War of Ninepenny Kings, ADWD really ups the ante and the chapters just before Tyrion meets the Griffs are teeminng with Blackfyre references. It's even made pretty explicit when Tyrion asks Illyrio why the Golden Company would fight for someone who is not a Blackfyre. It continues throughout the chapters on the boat. It follows the way Martin does foreshadowing, starting with subtle hints, then something more explicit and then finally bashing your over the head with it when it becomes relevant. I'm not a particularly attentive reader in terms of picking up clues on my first read, but my dad who reads a lot more slowly has picked up on a lot of stuff - the Blackfyre thing isn't completely out of the left field for attentive readers.

[shadow282]

Perhaps, and it reminds me of a passage from AFfC, The Queenmaker (Arianne I):

I don't agree that it won't matter. How do you think, for example, Jon Con would feel if he found out that he was raising a Blackfyre pretender and not Rhaegar's son?

The point is that this discussion always begins with the question: Why would Varys lie to a dying man? The answer to which is, there's no upside in telling the truth. We don't really need to hash out all of the details beyond that point.

I never said that people might think he's fake only if someone overhears Varys. But I think rumor and innuendo that he's vaguely fake is different from specific knowledge that he's a Blackfyre. Again, put yourself in Jon Con's shoes to understand why.

And just tell the audience that Aegon is a Blackfyre, or at least a fake? Why? If Aegon is a Blackfyre, GRRM intends for it to be a mystery, agreed? If that's the case, then I'm sure you understand why it would make no sense for him to spoil the mystery he created.

---

Btw, I believe GRRM is using Aegon to set up a Dance of the Dragons + Blackfyre Rebellion, which I think is kind of cool. Just a little fyi for the thread. :)

And how would that conversation go?

Random HYPOTHETICAL Lannister servant guy who would almost certainly be killed when Aegon took the Red Keep "Well, I heard Varys say he was fake!"

JonCon "No, you didn't. I have absolutely no reason to believe you, person who was faithfully serving my enemies. You were surrounded by people saying he was fake for months(years?) I'm sure you just got confused"

Again, why would Varys mention Blackfyres?

Again, you do seem to be under the impression that the testimony of random servant guy #532421 will make or break Aegon's legitimacy. Which, based off EVERYTHING we've seen from the series is entirely baseless.

There's no downside to telling the truth. Either he knows that nobody will interrupt him or he's doing something monumentally stupid for absolutely zero reason. Which one seems more in character for Varys? There's no reason to think the children aren't outside watching for someone. Which isn't even taking into account the fact that its freezing out and they're in the damn rookery. AKA not somewhere anyone would have a reason to go. It's also late at night meaning in the almost nonexistent scenario where anyone did walk by they would be a guard, someone who could EASILY overpower Varys.

I agree that if he was fake GRRM wouldn't tell us yet. But he chose to write the scene in a way that confirms Aegon is real. Which means he can still make Aegon fake, being the author and all, it just makes that passage really shitty writing.

[Drekinn]

So the question is: why would George have such an important plot point hinge on Aegon being part of a family that the vast majority of his readership doesn't really know too much about?

I don't see why that is a problem. Popular or not the stories featuring the Blackfyres are part of the canon, and I wouldn't want the author to change his plan just because few people read them.

[Berkilak]

I don't see why that is a problem. Popular or not the stories featuring the Blackfyres are part of the canon, and I wouldn't want the author to change his plan just because few people read them.

The problem isn't popularity. The problem is that material beyond the core series would be necessary to an extremely important part of the narrative. Tolkien didn't explain the origins of Gollum in the Silmarillion, nor did Herbert set aside all information pertaining to the Harkonnens for a side story. Those pieces of information are key to understanding the overall narrative, and to include them in supplemental material is simply sloppy writing.

If the Blackfyre stuff proves true, odds are it will be elaborated upon in the series proper. It would be pretty disheartening to see GRRM write supplemental material simply because he can't figure out how to explain the narrative of his series within that series.

[Joe Pine]

I don't see why that is a problem. Popular or not the stories featuring the Blackfyres are part of the canon, and I wouldn't want the author to change his plan just because few people read them.

Sadly for you, they're not Asoif canon. They're canon in side stories.

Blackfyre is Targaryen that's all readers of the series need to know or care about.

[bent branch]

I just want to point out that this is not occuring in the rookery. This is happening in Pycelles quarters, which are below the rookery.

[Maid So Fair]

snip

A good counter point to this is that Varys is one of the characters who are very much aware and wary of the existence of magic due to his own personal experience with it. He knows dragons are reborn and is smart enough to realise what this means, even if he didn't read his history and wasn't aware of Bloodraven's powers (I'm not saying that he knows Bloodraven is alive, just that the Blackfyres already lost before due to what can be easily attributed to supernatural forces). It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he knew about glass candles burning again and the possibility of using animals as spies. So given what we know about his character being careful even if he doesn't expect to be interrupted is not entirely illogical.

So if he's trying to fool anybody, it is not random servant #48548 but someone powerful and skilled in magic who could be spying on them from a distance.

The problem isn't popularity. The problem is that material beyond the core series would be necessary to an extremely important part of the narrative. Tolkien didn't explain the origins of Gollum in the Silmarillion, nor did Herbert set aside all information pertaining to the Harkonnens for a side story. Those pieces of information are key to understanding the overall narrative, and to include them in supplemental material is simply sloppy writing.

If the Blackfyre stuff proves true, odds are it will be elaborated upon in the series proper. It would be pretty disheartening to see GRRM write supplemental material simply because he can't figure out how to explain the narrative of his series within that series.

I don't think the theory really requires the audience to know anything apart from what was mentioned in the main novels - that Blackfyres were Targaryen pretenders lead by a Great Bastard son of Aegon the Unworthy, that one of their main generals named Bittersteel founded the Golden Company to take the throne back, that they had a connection to the Free Cities and that the male line perished in the War of Ninepenny Kings. This is all mentioned in the main series.

Dunk and Egg flesh out the setting and give us information about what actually went down during the Blackfyre rebellion, who the main players were and how their personalities played into it, and give us an idea about what a Blackfyre pretender might look like and who might support him. But it's not necessary to know all this to understand what the Blackfyres are all about.

ETA: sorry double post, was trying to edit

[J. Stargaryen]

And how would that conversation go?

Random HYPOTHETICAL Lannister servant guy who would almost certainly be killed when Aegon took the Red Keep "Well, I heard Varys say he was fake!"

JonCon "No, you didn't. I have absolutely no reason to believe you, person who was faithfully serving my enemies. You were surrounded by people saying he was fake for months(years?) I'm sure you just got confused"

Again, why would Varys mention Blackfyres?

Again, you do seem to be under the impression that the testimony of random servant guy #532421 will make or break Aegon's legitimacy. Which, based off EVERYTHING we've seen from the series is entirely baseless.

There's no downside to telling the truth. Either he knows that nobody will interrupt him or he's doing something monumentally stupid for absolutely zero reason. Which one seems more in character for Varys? There's no reason to think the children aren't outside watching for someone. Which isn't even taking into account the fact that its freezing out and they're in the damn rookery. AKA not somewhere anyone would have a reason to go. It's also late at night meaning in the almost nonexistent scenario where anyone did walk by they would be a guard, someone who could EASILY overpower Varys.

I agree that if he was fake GRRM wouldn't tell us yet. But he chose to write the scene in a way that confirms Aegon is real. Which means he can still make Aegon fake, being the author and all, it just makes that passage really shitty writing.

Again, it's not necessary to demonstrate a specific hypothetical scenario. All that needs to be understood is that there is no upside to revealing the secret behind a decade-and-a-half long plot, just as it's finally got going. Not to mention, and I think this really needs to be taken into account, why would GRRM reveal that Aegon is a Blackfyre? And no, it wouldn't be shitty writing, because GRRM has already explained why you never say secrets out loud. Just because you think you're alone, doesn't mean you are. And frankly, it doesn't matter how far fetched of a scenario you envision it would take to unravel the plot, that's still infinitely worse than no chance the plot unravels. Here is an example of what I mean, for illustrative purposes.

There are two sets of 1,000 boxes, each containing an identical looking flower. You are given a choice to open just one box from one of the sets. In the first set are 1,000 boxes of harmless flowers. In the second set there are also 1,000 flowers, but one of them is poisonous and will kill you. So, the odds that you die from opening a box in the first set are 0/1,000, and the odds that you die from opening a box in the second set are 1/1,000. Can you think of any good reason to open a box from the second set? Sure, the odds are extremely long that opening a box in the second set will kill you, but why would you even take any chance at all, when there is nothing to gain by doing so?

[shadow282]

Again, it's not necessary to demonstrate a specific hypothetical scenario. All that needs to be understood is that there is no upside to revealing the secret behind a decade-and-a-half long plot, just as it's finally got going. Not to mention, and I think this really needs to be taken into account, why would GRRM reveal that Aegon is a Blackfyre? And no, it wouldn't be shitty writing, because GRRM has already explained why you never say secrets out loud. Just because you think you're alone, doesn't mean you are. And frankly, it doesn't matter how far fetched of a scenario you envision it would take to unravel the plot, that's still infinitely worse than no chance the plot unravels. Here is an example of what I mean, for illustrative purposes.

There are two sets of 1,000 boxes, each containing an identical looking flower. You are given a choice to open just one box from one of the sets. In the first set are 1,000 boxes of harmless flowers. In the second set there are also 1,000 flowers, but one of them is poisonous and will kill you. So, the odds that you die from opening a box in the first set are 0/1,000, and the odds that you die from opening a box in the second set are 1/1,000. Can you think of any good reason to open a box from the second set? Sure, the odds are extremely long that opening a box in the second set will kill you, but why would you even take any chance at all, when there is nothing to gain by doing so?

Which would be a fair point if the odds were 1 in 1,000 of it ruining his plans. But that's just way too high. The statistical odds of somebody being outside in the 5 second window he said that are astronomically low. Then you have to multiple it by the odds that Aegon takes KL. Then multiple it by the astronomically low odds that the servant would avoid being killed during the taking of the Red Keep. Then multiple it by the astronomically low odds that the servant would go up to somebody who just successfully took KL and tell him or his tops advisers that Aegon's a fake despite him having absolutely no idea if they would kill him for that. Then multiple it by the astronomically low odds that anyone he told actually believed him. It's so unlikely that the risk is functionally nonexistent.

^Which would actually, yes, make it shitty writing. Writing something for the sole purpose of misleading your readers is terrible writing. The options weren't "Write it this way or reveal he's a Blackfyre now" GRRM could easily have written that scene WITHOUT adding that line. But he chose not to. He chose to add that line.

[J. Stargaryen]

Which would be a fair point if the odds were 1 in 1,000 of it ruining his plans. But that's just way too high. The statistical odds of somebody being outside in the 5 second window he said that are astronomically low. Then you have to multiple it by the odds that Aegon takes KL. Then multiple it by the astronomically low odds that the servant would avoid being killed during the taking of the Red Keep. Then multiple it by the astronomically low odds that the servant would go up to somebody who just successfully took KL and tell him or his tops advisers that Aegon's a fake despite him having absolutely no idea if they would kill him for that. Then multiple it by the astronomically low odds that anyone he told actually believed him. It's so unlikely that the risk is functionally nonexistent.

Add as many zeroes as you like. There's still no reason to take the chance.

^Which would actually, yes, make it shitty writing. Writing something for the sole purpose of misleading your readers is terrible writing. The options weren't "Write it this way or reveal he's a Blackfyre now" GRRM could easily have written that scene WITHOUT adding that line. But he chose not to. He chose to add that line.

Apparently you are not familiar with how mysteries work. There's actually a specific name for exactly what you described. It's called a red herring.

[Kingmonkey]

I just want to point out that this is not occuring in the rookery. This is happening in Pycelles quarters, which are below the rookery.

True, but there is a raven present, a white one. Varys may have been speaking for the sake of another white (skinned) Raven.

[Facebookless Man]

GRRM has already explained why you never say secrets out loud

It's funny when people tout that LF quote as if it meant you just never talk about your plans. How do you guys figure that would work?

If you're committing murder you've already made sure nobody is eavesdropping, and there is no reason to lie. And no, having a character just talk bullshit to himself for no reason isn't the way you write mysteries either.

[shadow282]

Add as many zeroes as you like. There's still no reason to take the chance.

Apparently you are not familiar with how mysteries work. There's actually a specific name for exactly what you described. It's called a red herring.

Except there is no chance. It's functionally zero. It's about as likely to happen as you are to spontaneously combust the second you read this. It would be illogical for you to start carrying around a fire extinguisher because "why take the chance?". People don't worry about things that have .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of happening.

Varys talking alone to a dying POV is essentially GRRM directly talking to us. If GRRM had said in every interview since the series started that Jon was a Targaryen, and then just made him some random whore's son would you call that a red herring? No. That would be GRRM being an asshole. Same principle here. Red herrings are fine. But when you deliberately outright lie to your readers that's just bad writing.

The point is that people are fixated on Aegon being fake, and they look for evidence anywhere they can find it because they want it to be true. If Varys had told Kevan that Aegon was a Blackfyre outright, would you be on a thread arguing that Aegon was definitely real because Varys must have been lying? No, you wouldn't.

[J. Stargaryen]

snip

Long shot =/= no chance. Ironically, what you are arguing makes it appear as if you're fixated on Aegon being real. And frankly, it seems to me like you haven't considered many of these questions from the perspective of Aegon Blackfyre. If you're genuinely interested in getting to the bottom of this mystery, as opposed to pushing the rAegon agenda, you owe it to yourself to do so.

It's funny when people tout that LF quote as if it meant you just never talk about your plans. How do you guys figure that would work?

If you're committing murder you've already made sure nobody is eavesdropping, and there is no reason to lie. And no, having a character just talk bullshit to himself for no reason isn't the way you write mysteries either.

There needs to be something to gain by doing so. Planning = something to gain, so it provides a reason to talk out loud. And that's assuming that people like LF and Varys don't talk in semi-code when discussing such things.

Nor is there any reason to tell the truth, unless you're a comic book villain.

[Frey family reunion]

Except there is no chance. It's functionally zero. It's about as likely to happen as you are to spontaneously combust the second you read this. It would be illogical for you to start carrying around a fire extinguisher because "why take the chance?". People don't worry about things that have .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of happening.

Varys talking alone to a dying POV is essentially GRRM directly talking to us. If GRRM had said in every interview since the series started that Jon was a Targaryen, and then just made him some random whore's son would you call that a red herring? No. That would be GRRM being an asshole. Same principle here. Red herrings are fine. But when you deliberately outright lie to your readers that's just bad writing.

The point is that people are fixated on Aegon being fake, and they look for evidence anywhere they can find it because they want it to be true. If Varys had told Kevan that Aegon was a Blackfyre outright, would you be on a thread arguing that Aegon was definitely real because Varys must have been lying? No, you wouldn't.

I think the easy answer, is that Young Griff was in fact named Aegon at his birth. Just like at least nine previous Aegons before him. Varys is just now calling him by his birth name. Which doesn't mean that he's referring to the Aegon whose head was smashed in by Gregor.