Balon Swann and his hunt for Darkstar - Predictions?

[Poodle Pup From Astapor]

Thank you. :love:

I don’t get why people are dissatisfied with the character that’s presented on page. He’s a violent asshole with some skill. Apparently, he’s quite good in bed. I don’t know why people need him to be a deep cover agent, or the real Viserys (what.), or Arthur Dayne’s squire (in which case, why would be hide it, and how could he). He’s just a minor side character, people.

Same reason why people keep talking about Doran and hoping for a secret plot. It's a weak plotline and Darkstar is one of the symptoms. Here's an emo looking psychopath, you can't miss him if you tried. Here's a dornish princess who has proven to be a headless chicken. Here's another princess next to them, which Doran supposedly wants to protect. Here's Doran, who's informed about all of this in advance and he's smart enough to understand that this is all a clusterfuck waiting to happen, and he lets it all happen.

I hope there's more to it, something that makes them all look less like very colorful cartoon characters, teletubbies and such, and more like an interesting plot.

[Julia Martell]

Same reason why people keep talking about Doran and hoping for a secret plot. It's a weak plotline and Darkstar is one of the symptoms. Here's an emo looking psychopath, you can't miss him if you tried. Here's a dornish princess who has proven to be a headless chicken. Here's another princess next to them, which Doran supposedly wants to protect. Here's Doran, who's informed about all of this in advance and he's smart enough to understand that this is all a clusterfuck waiting to happen, and he lets it all happen.

I hope there's more to it, something that makes them all look less like very colorful cartoon characters, teletubbies and such, and more like an interesting plot.

Arianne is not a headless chicken, she did what she did because: character. Doran let it happen because: character. They both thought they could predict people’s actions and they couldn’t. If you actually care, go read this essay.

And how is a ruler who loves his children, can’t bring himself to risk his whole kingdom for personal revenge, and has a procrastination problem somehow more like a “very colourful cartoon character” than an evil, omniscient mastermind who Batman Gambits everything and everyone?

[Poodle Pup From Astapor]

Arianne is not a headless chicken, she did what she did because: character. Doran let it happen because: character. They both thought they could predict people’s actions and they couldn’t. If you actually care, go read this essay.

And how is a ruler who loves his children, can’t bring himself to risk his whole kingdom for personal revenge, and has a procrastination problem somehow more like a “very colourful cartoon character” than an evil, omniscient mastermind who Batman Gambits everything and everyone?

A better question, how is this related to what I wrote?

[Julia Martell]

Well, I apologize if I put words in your mouth, but you did rather imply that the plot would be improved by there bring "more to” Darkstar than is presented on the page or by there being “more to” Doran’s actions and motives than is established in A Feast for Crows.

In particular, I was objecting to the idea that the Dornish characters are cartoon-like, by which I assume you mean shallow and unmotivated. This may be the case with Darkstar, but he’s a minor side character, and doesn’t really have any obligation to be well rounded, but I strongly disagree that this is the case with Doran, and even more so with Arianne. And I think that the idea that Doran has some hidden motive or master plan that is still completely opaque to us ruins all the characterization that he received in aFfC.

[Roxy Carmichael]

I think Obara is a goner. Darkstar's comment about vipers not effing with him is a hint that she'll meet her end on this little manhunt.

I'm not so sure about Swann. I think he'll ultimately die too, but two dead KG down in Dorne starts to look suspicious so I don't think he'll die at the hands of Doran's men.

Hotah will either continue to pursue Darkstar if he escapes High Hermitage, or be taken captive and held as a hostage. He's valuable to Doran and the only POV character in the melee, therefore I think he'll survive for a while.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I'm not so sure about Swann. I think he'll ultimately die too, but two dead KG down in Dorne starts to look suspicious so I don't think he'll die at the hands of Doran's men.

It would be hilarious if the Iron Throne just keeps on sending Kingsguards to Dorne and they keep dying

Well, I apologize if I put words in your mouth, but you did rather imply that the plot would be improved by there bring "more to” Darkstar than is presented on the page or by there being “more to” Doran’s actions and motives than is established in A Feast for Crows.

In particular, I was objecting to the idea that the Dornish characters are cartoon-like, by which I assume you mean shallow and unmotivated. This may be the case with Darkstar, but he’s a minor side character, and doesn’t really have any obligation to be well rounded, but I strongly disagree that this is the case with Doran, and even more so with Arianne. And I think that the idea that Doran has some hidden motive or master plan that is still completely opaque to us ruins all the characterization that he received in aFfC.

I agree about Doran, since I think any theory of a master plan makes him look more like an unrealistic robot and less like a flawed, realistic character. But I disagree about Darkstar. I think there needs to be a satisfying motivation for him to try to kill Myrcella other than him just being a warmonger or whatever, otherwise it would be poor writing, IMO

[Julia Martell]

It would be hilarious if the Iron Throne just keeps on sending Kingsguards to Dorne and they keep dying

I agree about Doran, since I think any theory of a master plan makes him look more like an unrealistic robot and less like a flawed, realistic character. But I disagree about Darkstar. I think there needs to be a satisfying motivation for him to try to kill Myrcella other than him just being a warmonger or whatever, otherwise it would be poor writing, IMO

I assume Dawn Envy isn’t reason enough? I’m more than willing to admit that Darkstar is hardly one of Martin’s more brilliant creations.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I assume Dawn Envy isn’t reason enough? I’m more than willing to admit that Darkstar is hardly one of Martin’s more brilliant creations.

Well, Dawn Envy (LOL) works on some level, but I still feel there should be more to him

[Dorian Martell]

The major driving force behind Doran's caution is that Dorne is the weakest of the 7 kingdoms. He admits to Arianne that the whole 50,000 spears is a falsehood. Having Dorkstar be a secret part of a plan would make Doran seem less of a tool and Gerold somehow be more than just a good looking psychpoath

[Monctonvike]

I think if Darkstar is as dangerous as people make out to be .....If he finds him Swann is going to die

[Poodle Pup From Astapor]

Well, I apologize if I put words in your mouth, but you did rather imply that the plot would be improved by there bring "more to” Darkstar than is presented on the page or by there being “more to” Doran’s actions and motives than is established in A Feast for Crows.

In particular, I was objecting to the idea that the Dornish characters are cartoon-like, by which I assume you mean shallow and unmotivated. This may be the case with Darkstar, but he’s a minor side character, and doesn’t really have any obligation to be well rounded, but I strongly disagree that this is the case with Doran, and even more so with Arianne. And I think that the idea that Doran has some hidden motive or master plan that is still completely opaque to us ruins all the characterization that he received in aFfC.

Darkstar, Obara, other Sand Snakes seem extremely shallow, cartoonish to me and generally irritating. I don't think Arianne or Doran are strong characters, but they aren't as one sided. If Doran is a decent dad and cares about the future of Dorne, he should've had a talk and paid much more attention to his daughter / heir after she tried to run away to Willas Tyrell. Maybe even earlier, when she tried to seduce Renly. Arianne was a ticking time bomb, she wants power and she tries to use men to get it, but she also lacks subtlety and full picture. I don't know, it's a weird family dynamic. If I was her loving dad, or if I deeply cared about Dorne and she was my heir, I would've put much more effort into developing her.

Doran leaves Arianne on her own, now he sends her to Aegon where she's almost certain to tunnel vision again, go for power/sex again and take a big bloody gamble for Dorne. Too predictable, and Doran has to see it too. Quentyn to Essos, Oberyn to King's Landing, odd choices too.

To be clear, I don't think that there's more to Doran and the dornish intrigues. Most likely Doran is just a poor judge of character.

But I do hope I'm wrong. I hope there's more to it. I don't know how GRRM would pull it off in a way that doesn't look convoluted. Then again, I'm not GRRM.

[NOT A TARG I SWEAR]

Darkstar, Obara, other Sand Snakes seem extremely shallow, cartoonish to me and generally irritating. I don't think Arianne or Doran are strong characters, but they aren't as one sided. If Doran is a decent dad and cares about the future of Dorne, he should've had a talk and paid much more attention to his daughter / heir after she tried to run away to Willas Tyrell. Maybe even earlier, when she tried to seduce Renly. Arianne was a ticking time bomb, she wants power and she tries to use men to get it, but she also lacks subtlety and full picture. I don't know, it's a weird family dynamic. If I was her loving dad, or if I deeply cared about Dorne and she was my heir, I would've put much more effort into developing her.

I'm with you on this. I think Darkstar and a couple of the Sand Snakes could end up being interesting characters, but really at this point they just seem like gimmicks feeding off of Oberyn/Arthur's popularity. Thus far wayyyy too much telling and not enough showing in regards to all of them. I think the lack of especially meaningful actions by most of these characters thus far combined with the shallow characterizations that rely a lot on nicknames that seem like they are trying too hard tend to make people overly critical of them.

[Pod The Impaler]

My prediction is that this encounter is not at all going to go as planned.

Balon Swann is the "mark " - deceived (supposedly) into believing a false version of why Myrcella was attacked, and now riding alongside "allies" Areo Hotah and Obara Sand to take down this Darkstar somewhere far away from Myrcella. Darkstar might be a deadly warrior in his own right, but we know by reputation that he will be facing three such himself: Obara Sand, Areo Hotah, and Balon Swann.

However, conventional wisdom about the Dornish intrigues should lead us to realize that this clean little engagement is not what will take place. So, something will happen - given the fact that Obara is hot to unleash blood and cause a war, I would not put it past her to try and kill Balon Swann, seeing him as nothing more than a representative of the Lannisters and Iron Throne. Areo Hotah serves whatever Doran's plan is.

It would be unfortunate if Darkstar escaped, but what would be worse, and what I think will happen, is that some treachery will still happen ay High Hermitage, and the end result shall be that Swann will live, and Obara will die.

[Mithras]

^^This is also likely. Perhaps Balon Swann is not supposed to survive the encounter as far as Doran's plans are concerned. They might lie to the IT about how Balon was slain while he was avenging the princess. That is what they did with Arys.

[pajamacowboy]

On Manden Moore: Jamie ranks him deadliest because he's impossible to read. I'm sure he's also a skilled warrior, but his unexpressive nature makes him deadly 1v1. I'm sure that Balon Swann is the better warrior, even across multiple martial aspects.

IMO, Darkstar will die eventually, but not before some big revelation. Swann lives and catches up with the Dornish party headed to KL only to be ambushed by the Golden Company.

When Jamie pretty much calls the kingsgaurd a joke, he says Swann is the only one man enough to were the white cloak and wonders what Arthur Dayne would think of what the kingsgaurd has become( not an exact quote but same idea)

[Nerevanin]

I suppose that Doran plans to kill him "himself" - he orders Obara or Aero to do so. I'd say that Balon is already dead but with a lot of luck he may escape and bring to KL the info of Doran's attempt to kill him.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

For Doran´s Plan the best scenario would be one in which Balon Swann kills darkstar and comes out alive of Dorne. If he dies, it would be very suspicious indeed. One knight won´t make a difference for the war he is planning, but an early conflict with the IT could very welll play badly for him.

Unless Darkstar tells him the truth about the Myrcella incident... In that case, Swann shoulnt be allowed to go back to KL. Obara is well aware of this.

i think Darkstar will escape, but not before telling swan what really happened with Myrcella.. at which point Obara and Hotah turn against Swann

Obara and Balon die, Hotah wins.

[Mithras]

For Doran´s Plan the best scenario would be one in which Balon Swann kills darkstar and comes out alive of Dorne. If he dies, it would be very suspicious indeed. One knight won´t make a difference for the war he is planning, but an early conflict with the IT could very welll play badly for him.

Unless Darkstar tells him the truth about the Myrcella incident... In that case, Swann shoulnt be allowed to go back to KL. Obara is well aware of this.

i think Darkstar will escape, but not before telling swan what really happened with Myrcella.. at which point Obara and Hotah turn against Swann

Obara and Balon die, Hotah wins.

I think it is clear that the time for Dorne to defy the IT openly is very close. Doran knows that although he will not openly tell his pawns so. He sent the two most notorious SS to KL. He is looking to create trouble. He is trying to provoke the IT to declare war on Dorne. That is similar to how Edmure fell into the trap of providing a legal excuse for Tywin to invade Riverlands.

[aryagonnakill#2]

It is entirely possible that Doran hopes Balon, Obara, and Hotah will not arrive at High Hermitage until Arianne has sent word of her opinion of Aegon. In that event, if Doran told Darkstar that war had to wait he would flee and they would not find him. If Doran sent him word that they were going to war, Darkstar will still be at High Hermitage and there is 1 less kings guard.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I think it is clear that the time for Dorne to defy the IT openly is very close. Doran knows that although he will not openly tell his pawns so. He sent the two most notorious SS to KL. He is looking to create trouble. He is trying to provoke the IT to declare war on Dorne. That is similar to how Edmure fell into the trap of providing a legal excuse for Tywin to invade Riverlands.

Does he?

. Elia's son... I would weep for joy if some part of my sister had survived, but what proof do we have that this is Aegon?" His voice broke when he said that. "Where are the dragons?" he asked. "Where is Daenerys?" and Arianne knew that he was really saying, "Where is my son?"

I think Doran doens´t know when that time will come. He only knows war is inevitable, but he surely must know it could be months or years before Dany arrives westeros. He must keep the appearances of being loyal to the IT till the last possible second.

I think the narrative demands for Dorne to be forced into war, (by the SS, arianne´s ambitions and so on) fighting for the wrong side, instead of entering because doran´s plans end up working as he expects.

Doran arc must end in tragedy, with all his plans burning into ashes, if only he would have been a little more patient